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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 667 records · Page 37
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian tensorized neural networks with automatic rank selection

Tensor decomposition is an effective approach to compress over-parameterized neural networks and to enable their deployment on resource-constrained hardware platforms. However, directly applying tensor compression in the training process is a challenging task due to the difficulty of choosing a proper tensor rank. In order to address this challenge, this paper proposes a low-rank Bayesian tensorized neural network. Our Bayesian method performs automatic model compression via an adaptive tensor rank determination. We also present approaches for posterior density calculation and maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation for the end-to-end training of our tensorized neural network. Here, we provide experimental validation on a two-layer fully connected neural network, a 6-layer CNN and a 110-layer residual neural network where our work produces 7.4x to 137x more compact neural networks directly from the training while achieving high prediction accuracy.

Low-rank tensor↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Exploration and Surrogate Emulation of Nonlinear Beam-Response Geometry in the LBNF Beamline

Next-generation long-baseline neutrino experiments aim to achieve multi-MW proton beam power while reducing accelerator-induced systematic uncertainties. At Fermilab, the LBNF beamline is designed for 1.2 MW operation with PIP-II and is upgradeable to 2.4 MW. DUNE will probe the three-flavor neutrino paradigm and search for CP violation, requiring precise neutrino-flux normalization and improved control of accelerator-related uncertainties. Within the LBNF beamline, the System for On-Axis Neutrino Detection (SAND) will constrain flux uncertainties using precision near-detector measurements, while the Muon Monitor System (MuMS) will provide beamline diagnostics sensitive to the proton beam, target, and horn configuration. However, the pion phase space relevant for DUNE depends simultaneously on many correlated parameters, including beam centroid, beam width, horn current and alignment, target position, optics shifts, and radiation-induced changes. Consequently, MuMS observables exhibit nonlinear and coupled responses that are difficult to characterize using traditional one-parameter scans. To address this challenge, we are developing a Bayesian Exploration framework coupled to physics-informed surrogate emulators trained on Geant4 beamline simulations. Gaussian-process emulators provide both fast predictions and uncertainty estimates, enabling adaptive selection of new simulation points in beam-parameter space. As an initial demonstration, we construct surrogate emulators for MuMS response observables using a verified simulation campaign spanning proton-beam steering conditions. The emulators reproduce the simulated dependence of MuMS centroid and gradient observables while providing predictive uncertainties, and serve as the foundation for future multidimensional exploration including beam width, horn current, and additional beamline parameters. This work establishes a framework for uncertainty-aware beam monitoring, adaptive simulation campaigns, and rapid beam-response inference for future DUNE operations.

Ganguly, Sudeshna [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000003163482↗
NASA NTRS1985

On-orbit systems identification of flexible spacecraft

The process of on-orbit systems identification of flexible spacecraft is examined in terms of the difficulties that are expected because of the potentially unmanageable number of unknown model parameters due to the very high order system models involved. A Jordon block canonical form and global model parameters are used to reduce the number of unknown parameters to manageable numbers. A Bayesian approach is discussed which enables the merging of theoretical models with ground or on-orbit test results by using Unconditional Maximum Likelihood Parameter Estimation. A Modified Newton-Raphson technique is proposed for determining the model parameter estimates and an expected fit error criterion is recommended for the determination of the model structure and order reduction.

Taylor, L. W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Hybrid Gibbs Sampling and MCMC for CMB Analysis at Small Angular Scales

A) Gibbs Sampling has now been validated as an efficient, statistically exact, and practically useful method for "low-L" (as demonstrated on WMAP temperature polarization data). B) We are extending Gibbs sampling to directly propagate uncertainties in both foreground and instrument models to total uncertainty in cosmological parameters for the entire range of angular scales relevant for Planck. C) Made possible by inclusion of foreground model parameters in Gibbs sampling and hybrid MCMC and Gibbs sampling for the low signal to noise (high-L) regime. D) Future items to be included in the Bayesian framework include: 1) Integration with Hybrid Likelihood (or posterior) code for cosmological parameters; 2) Include other uncertainties in instrumental systematics? (I.e. beam uncertainties, noise estimation, calibration errors, other).

Gibbs sampling↗
NASA NTRS2018

Variability Timescale and Spectral Index of Sgr A* in the Near Infrared: Approximate Bayesian Computation Analysis of the Variability of the Closest Supermassive Black Hole

Sagittarius A* (Sgr A* ) is the variable radio, near-infrared (NIR), and X-ray source associated with accretion onto the Galactic center black hole. We present an analysis of the most comprehensive NIR variability data set of Sgr A* to date: eight 24 hr epochs of continuous monitoring of Sgr A* at 4.5 μm with the IRAC instrument on the Spitzer Space Telescope, 93 epochs of 2.18 μm data from Naos Conica at the Very Large Telescope, and 30 epochs of 2.12 μm data from the NIRC2 camera at the Keck Observatory, in total 94,929 measurements. A new approximate Bayesian computation method for fitting the first-order structure function extracts information beyond current fast Fourier transformation (FFT) methods of power spectral density (PSD) estimation. With a combined fit of the data of all three observatories, the characteristic coherence timescale of Sgr A* is b 243 57 82 t = - + minutes (90% credible interval). The PSD has no detectable features on timescales down to 8.5 minutes (95% credible level), which is the ISCO orbital frequency for a dimensionless spin parameter a = 0.92. One light curve measured simultaneously at 2.12 and 4.5 μm during a low flux-density phase gave a spectral index αs = 1.6 ± 0.1 (F µ n s n -a ). This value implies that the Sgr A* NIR color becomes bluer during higher flux-density phases. The probability densities of flux densities of the combined data sets are best fit by log-normal distributions. Based on these distributions, the Sgr A* spectral energy distribution is consistent with synchrotron radiation from a nonthermal electron population from below 20 GHz through the NIR.

accretion↗
DOE OSTI2023

New constraints on sodium production in globular clusters from the Na 23 ( He 3 , d ) Mg 24 reaction

The star-to-star anticorrelation of sodium and oxygen is a defining feature of globular clusters, but, to date, the astrophysical site responsible for this unique chemical signature remains unknown. Sodium enrichment within these clusters depends sensitively on reaction rate of the sodium destroying reactions 23 Na(p, γ) and 23 Na(p,α). In this paper, we report the results of a 23 Na( 3 He,d) 24 Mg transfer reaction carried out at Triangle Universities Nuclear Laboratory using a 21 MeV 3 He beam. Astrophysically relevant states in 24 Mg between 11 < E x < 12 MeV were studied using high-resolution magnetic spectroscopy, thereby allowing the extraction of excitation energies and spectroscopic factors. Bayesian methods are combined with the distorted wave Born approximation to assign statistically meaningful uncertainties to the extracted spectroscopic factors. For the first time, these uncertainties are propagated through to the estimation of proton partial widths. Our experimental data are used to calculate the reaction rate. The impact of the new rates are investigated using asymptotic giant branch star models. Furthermore, it is found that while the astrophysical conditions still dominate the total uncertainty, intramodel variations on sodium production from the 23 Na(p, γ) and 23 Na(p,α) reaction channels are a lingering source of uncertainty.

20 ≤ A ≤ 38↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Bayesian nonparametric analysis for zero-inflated multivariate count data with application to microbiome study

High-throughput sequencing technology has enabled researchers to profile microbial communities from a variety of environments, but analysis of multivariate taxon count data remains challenging. Here, we develop a Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) regression model with zero inflation to analyse multivariate count data from microbiome studies. A BNP approach flexibly models microbial associations with covariates, such as environmental factors and clinical characteristics. The model produces estimates for probability distributions which relate microbial diversity and differential abundance to covariates, and facilitates community comparisons beyond those provided by simple statistical tests. We compare the model to simpler models and popular alternatives in simulation studies, showing, in addition to these additional community-level insights, it yields superior parameter estimates and model fit in various settings. The model's utility is demonstrated by applying it to a chronic wound microbiome data set and a Human Microbiome Project data set, where it is used to compare microbial communities present in different environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Inference for the Seismic Moment Tensor Using Regional Waveforms and Teleseismic- P Polarities with a Data-Derived Distribution of Velocity Models and Source Locations

The largest source of uncertainty in any source inversion is the velocity model used in the transfer function that relates observed ground motion to the seismic moment tensor. However, standard inverse procedure often does not quantify uncertainty in the seismic moment tensor due to error in the Green’s functions from uncertain event location and Earth structure. Here, we incorporate this uncertainty into an estimation of the seismic moment tensor using a data-derived distribution of velocity models based on complementary geophysical data sets, including thickness constraints, velocity profiles, gravity data, surface-wave group velocities, and regional body-wave travel times. The data-derived distribution of velocity models is then used as a prior distribution of Green’s functions for use in Bayesian inference of an unknown seismic moment tensor using regional and teleseismic-P waveforms. The use of multiple data sets is important for gaining resolution to different components of the moment tensor. The combined likelihood is estimated using data-specific error models and the posterior of the seismic moment tensor is estimated and interpreted in terms of the most probable source type.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1991

Development of a Weibull posterior distribution by combining a Weibull prior with an actual failure distribution using Bayesian inference

A Bayesian inference process for system logistical planning is presented which provides a method for incorporating actual failures with prediction data for an ongoing and improving reliability estimates. The process uses the Weibull distribution, and provides a means for examining and updating logistical and maintenance support needs.

Giuntini, Michael E.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Estimating the probability of failure when testing reveals no failures

Formulas for estimating the probability of failure when testing reveals no errors are introduced. These formulas incorporate random testing results, information about the input distribution, and prior assumptions about the probability of failure of the software. The formulas are not restricted to equally likely input distributions, and the probability of failure estimate can be adjusted when assumptions about the input distribution change. The formulas are based on a discrete sample space statistical model of software and include Bayesian prior assumptions. Reusable software and software in life-critical applications are particularly appropriate candidates for this type of analysis.

Miller, Keith W.↗
DOE OSTI2022

A mixed, unified forward/inverse framework for earthquake problems: fault implementation and coseismic slip estimate

SUMMARY We introduce a new finite-element (FE) based computational framework to solve forward and inverse elastic deformation problems for earthquake faulting via the adjoint method. Based on two advanced computational libraries, FEniCS and hIPPYlib for the forward and inverse problems, respectively, this framework is flexible, transparent and easily extensible. We represent a fault discontinuity through a mixed FE elasticity formulation, which approximates the stress with higher order accuracy and exposes the prescribed slip explicitly in the variational form without using conventional split node and decomposition discrete approaches. This also allows the first order optimality condition, that is the vanishing of the gradient, to be expressed in continuous form, which leads to consistent discretizations of all field variables, including the slip. We show comparisons with the standard, pure displacement formulation and a model containing an in-plane mode II crack, whose slip is prescribed via the split node technique. We demonstrate the potential of this new computational framework by performing a linear coseismic slip inversion through adjoint-based optimization methods, without requiring computation of elastic Green’s functions. Specifically, we consider a penalized least squares formulation, which in a Bayesian setting—under the assumption of Gaussian noise and prior—reflects the negative log of the posterior distribution. The comparison of the inversion results with a standard, linear inverse theory approach based on Okada’s solutions shows analogous results. Preliminary uncertainties are estimated via eigenvalue analysis of the Hessian of the penalized least squares objective function. Our implementation is fully open-source and Jupyter notebooks to reproduce our results are provided. The extension to a fully Bayesian framework for detailed uncertainty quantification and non-linear inversions, including for heterogeneous media earthquake problems, will be analysed in a forthcoming paper.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Conservative Estimation of Tail Probabilities from Limited Sample Data

Several sparse-sample uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods are compared for conservative but not overly conservative estimation of small tail probabilities involving responses that lay beyond specified thresholds in the tails of probability distributions. Sixteen very differently shaped distributions (or probability density functions, PDFs) and tail probability magnitudes ranging from 10 -5 to 10 -1 are considered in order for the study to be relevant to a wide range of risk analysis and quantification of margins and uncertainty (QMU) problems. The emphasis of the study is on limited data regimes ranging from N = 2 to 20 samples, reflective of most experimental and some expensive computational situations. Relatively simple sparse-sample UQ methods tested for this regime involve statistical tolerance interval "Equivalent Normal and related "Ensemble of Normals" and "Superdistribution (SD) approaches. (The independently derived SD is effectively equivalent to the Bayesian posterior predictive distribution given the assumptions of the derivation.) The performance of the methods was generally improved for N ≥ 5 samples with a generalized Jackknife resampling technique, which determines a tail probability estimate by averaging estimates from smaller sub-samples. Several quantitative metrics for method conservatism and accuracy of tail probability estimation are used to assess and rank the methods' performance over many random trials for each test PDF and probability magnitude. A variant of Bootstrap resampling was also tried, but did not significantly improve tail probability estimates in most cases. Detailed results are presented from over 100-million tests over the above factors that provide useful granular information on which methods or combination of methods perform best in various areas of the factor space.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimal Power Management for Large-Scale Battery Energy Storage Systems via Bayesian Inference

Large-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS) have found ever-increasing use across industry and society to accelerate clean energy transition and improve energy supply reliability and resilience. However, their optimal power management poses significant challenges: the underlying high-dimensional nonlinear nonconvex optimization lacks computational tractability in real-world implementation, and the uncertainty of the exogenous power demand makes exact optimization difficult. This paper presents a new solution framework to address these bottlenecks. The solution pivots on introducing power-sharing ratios to specify each cell’s power quota from the output power demand. To find the optimal power-sharing ratios, we formulate a nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) problem to achieve power-loss-minimizing BESS operation while complying with safety, cell balancing, and power supply-demand constraints. We then propose a parameterized control policy for the power-sharing ratios, which utilizes only three parameters, to reduce the computational demand in solving the NMPC problem. This policy parameterization allows us to translate the NMPC problem into a Bayesian inference problem for the sake of 1) computational tractability, and 2) overcoming the nonconvexity of the optimization problem. We leverage the ensemble Kalman inversion technique to solve the parameter estimation problem. Concurrently, a low-level control loop is developed to seamlessly integrate our proposed approach with the BESS to ensure practical implementation. This low-level controller receives the optimal power-sharing ratios, generates output power references for the cells, and maintains a balance between power supply and demand despite uncertainty in output power. We conduct extensive simulations and experiments on a 20-cell prototype to validate the proposed approach.

Battery energy storage systems (BESSs)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-variance replica exchange SGMCMC for inverse and forward problems via Bayesian PINN

Physics-informed neural network (PINN) has been successfully applied in solving a variety of nonlinear non-convex forward and inverse problems. However, the training is challenging because of the non-convex loss functions and the multiple optima in the Bayesian inverse problem. In this work, we propose a multi-variance replica exchange stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics method to tackle the challenge of the multiple local optima in the optimization and the challenge of the multiple modal posterior distribution in the inverse problem. Replica exchange methods are capable of escaping from the local traps and accelerating the convergence; two chains with different temperatures are designed where the low temperature chain aims for the local convergence, and the target of the high temperature chain is to travel globally and explore the whole loss function entropy landscape. However, it may not be efficient to solve mathematical inversion problems by using the vanilla replica method directly since the method doubles the computational cost in evaluating the forward solvers (likelihood functions) in the two chains. To address this issue, we propose to make different assumptions on the energy function estimation and this facilities one to use solvers of different fidelities in the likelihood function evaluation. More precisely, one can use a solver with low fidelity in the high temperature chain while using a solver with high fidelity in the low temperature chain. Our proposed method significantly lowers the computational cost in the high temperature chain, meanwhile preserving the accuracy and converging very fast. Here we give an unbiased estimate of the swapping rate and give an estimation of the discretization error of the scheme. To verify our idea, we design and solve four inverse problems which have multiple modes. The proposed method is also employed to train the Bayesian PINN to solve the forward and inverse problems; faster and more accurate convergence has been observed when compared to the stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) method and vanilla replica exchange methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2013

Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference on a Statistical Model of Sub-gridcolumn Moisture Variability Using High-resolution Cloud Observations : Sensitivity Tests and Results - Part II

Part I presented a Monte Carlo Bayesian method for constraining a complex statistical model of GCM sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution MODIS cloud data, thereby permitting large-scale model parameter estimation and cloud data assimilation. This part performs some basic testing of this new approach, verifying that it does indeed significantly reduce mean and standard deviation biases with respect to the assimilated MODIS cloud optical depth, brightness temperature and cloud top pressure, and that it also improves the simulated rotational-Ramman scattering cloud optical centroid pressure (OCP) against independent (non-assimilated) retrievals from the OMI instrument. Of particular interest, the Monte Carlo method does show skill in the especially difficult case where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach allows finite jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. In the example provided, the method is able to restore marine stratocumulus near the Californian coast where the background state has a clear swath. This paper also examines a number of algorithmic and physical sensitivities of the new method and provides guidance for its cost-effective implementation. One obvious difficulty for the method, and other cloud data assimilation methods as well, is the lack of information content in the cloud observables on cloud vertical structure, beyond cloud top pressure and optical thickness, thus necessitating strong dependence on the background vertical moisture structure. It is found that a simple flow-dependent correlation modification due to Riishojgaard (1998) provides some help in this respect, by better honoring inversion structures in the background state.

Monte Carlo Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the design of integrated methane sensing networks

Abstract While methane is the second largest contributor to global warming after carbon dioxide, it has a larger warming effect over a much shorter lifetime. Despite accelerated technological efforts to radically reduce global carbon dioxide emissions, rapid reductions in methane emissions are needed to limit near-term warming. Being primarily emitted as a byproduct from agricultural activities and energy extraction, methane is currently monitored via bottom–up (i.e. activity level) or top–down (via airborne or satellite retrievals) approaches. However, significant methane leaks remain undetected and emission rates are challenging to characterize with current monitoring frameworks. In this paper, we study the design of a layered monitoring approach that combines bottom–up and top–down approaches as an integrated sensing network. By recognizing that varying meteorological conditions and emission rates impact the efficacy of bottom–up monitoring, we develop a probabilistic approach to optimal sensor placement in its bottom–up network. Subsequently, we derive an inverse Bayesian framework to quantify the improvement that a design-optimized integrated framework has on emission-rate quantifications and their uncertainties. We find that under realistic meteorological conditions, the overall error in estimating the true emission rates is approximately 1.3 times higher, with their uncertainties being approximately 2.4 times higher, when using a randomized network over an optimized network, highlighting the importance of optimizing the design of integrated methane sensing networks. Further, we find that optimized networks can improve scenario coverage fractions by more than a factor of 2 over experimentally-studied networks, and identify a budget threshold beyond which the rate of optimized-network coverage improvement exhibits diminishing returns, suggesting that strategic sensor placement is also crucial for maximizing network efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Automating Bayesian inference and design to quantify acoustic particle levitation

Self-propulsion of micro- and nanoparticles powered by ultrasound provides an attractive strategy for the remote manipulation of colloidal matter using biocompatible energy inputs. Quantitative understanding of particle motion and its dependence on size, shape, and composition requires accurate characterization of the acoustic field, which depends sensitively on the experimental setup. Here, we show how automated experiments based on Bayesian inference and design can accurately and efficiently characterize the acoustic field within resonant chambers used to propel acoustic nanomotors. Repeated cycles of observation, inference, and design (OID) are guided by a physical model that describes the rate at which levitating particles approach the nodal plane. Using video microscopy, we observe the relaxation of tracer particles to this plane following the application of the acoustic field. We use sequential Monte Carlo methods to infer model parameters such as the amplitude and frequency of the resonant chamber while accounting for particle-level measurement noise and population-level heterogeneity in the field. Guided by simulated outcomes, we select the optimal design for the next experiment as to maximize the information gain in the relevant parameters. We show how this iterative process serves to discriminate between competing hypotheses and efficiently converges to accurate parameter estimates using only few automated experiments. We discuss the need for model criticism to ensure the validity of the guiding model throughout automated cycles of observation, inference, and design. Furthermore, this work demonstrates how Bayesian methods can learn the parameters of nonlinear, hierarchical models used to describe video microscopy data of active colloids.

42 ENGINEERING↗