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At least 667 records · Page 37

A simple model for 100 K-year oscillations in glaciation

A simple climatic model which produces glaciation cycles of 100 K periods in response to forcing by 20 K, 40 K, and 100 K periods is described. The model is based on Milankovitch's (1930) hypothesis that glaciation fluctuations are forced by orbital variation and the associated change in insolation. The sea ice/snow cover line for the model, and the relation between heat variations and the ice/snow line are analyzed. The sea ice/snow cover line for the model is between the pole and 53 deg latitude and the line's position is the forcing for the glaciation cycle. Examples of the model's response to forcing are presented and evaluated. The negative glaciation permitted by the model is studied. The role of CO2 feedback in the glaciation cycle is investigated.

Lindzen, R. S.↗

Diagnosing the Nature of Land-Atmosphere Coupling During the 2006-7 Dry/Wet Extremes in the U. S. Southern Great Plains

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of land surface and planetary boundary layer (PBL) temperature and moisture states and fluxes. In turn, these interactions regulate the strength of the connection between surface moisture and precipitation in a coupled system. To address deficiencies in numerical weather prediction and climate models due to improper treatment of L-A interactions, recent studies have focused on development of diagnostics to quantify the strength and accuracy of the land-PBL coupling at the process-level. In this study, a diagnosis of the nature and impacts of local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) during dry and wet extreme conditions is presented using a combination of models and observations during the summers of2006-7 in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. Specifically, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been coupled to NASA's Land Information System (LIS), which provides a flexible and high resolution representation and initialization of land surface physics and states. A range of diagnostics exploring the links and feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation are examined for the dry/wet regimes of this region, along with the behavior and accuracy of different land-PBL scheme couplings under these conditions. Results demonstrate how LoCo diagnostics can be applied to coupled model components in the context of their integrated impacts on the process-chain connecting the land surface to the PBL and support of hydrological anomalies.

Santanello, Joseph A.↗

Capturing Connections Between the Water, Energy, and Carbon Cycles with the NASA GEOS

Studying biosphere-atmosphere interactions is complex as water, energy and carbon cycles and their feedback processes have to be integrated. At NASA GMAO, we investigate these interactions with an Earth system model that allows us to explore and quantify relevant feedbacks associated with the exchanges of carbon, water, and energy fluxes within the atmosphere, within the land, and across the land-atmosphere interface. Current biosphere-atmosphere modeling research at GMAO includes a study to understand the relative contributions of land carbon flux variability and atmospheric dynamics to atmospheric CO2 variability in time and space. For this study, we use a unique capability of the NASA GEOS model, a "replay" mode that forces the model to reproduce the weather systems captured by the MERRA-2 reanalysis. Another study investigates the impact of imposed regional drought on land carbon fluxes and on subsequent atmospheric CO2 concentrations, thereby revealing interactions between the water and carbon cycles. Using the new coupled carbon-climate modeling capability, current GMAO efforts at subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting are now being expanded, at least in research mode, to include forecasts of carbon and phenological state.

Lee, Eunjee↗

Contrasts in Sea Ice Deformation and Production in the Arctic Seasonal and Perennial Ice Zones

Four years (1997-2000) of RADARSAT Geophysical Processor System (RGPS) data are used to contrast the sea ice deformation and production regionally, and in the seasonal (SIZ) and perennial (PIZ) ice zones. Ice production is of seasonal ice in openings during the winter. Three-day estimates of these quantities are provided within Lagrangian elements initially 10 km on a side. A distinct seasonal cycle is seen in both zones with these estimates highest in the late fall and with seasonal minimums in the midwinter. Regional divergence over the winter could be up to 30%. Spatially, the highest deformation is seen in the SIZ north of coastal Alaska. Both ice deformation and production are higher in the SIZ: deformation-related ice production in the SIZ (approx.0.5 m) is 1.5-2.3 times that of the PIZ (approx.0.3 m): this is connected to ice strength and thickness. Atmospheric forcing and boundary layer structure contribute to only the seasonal and interannual variability. Seasonal ice growth in ice fractures accounts for approx.25-40% of the total ice production of the Arctic Ocean. Uncertainties in these estimates are discussed. By itself, this deformation-ice production relationship could be considered a negative feedback when thickness is perturbed. However, the overall effect on ice production in the face of increasing seasonal and thinner/weaker ice coverage could be modified by local destabilization of the water column promoting overturning of warmer water due to increased brine rejection; and the upwelling of the pynocline associated with increased occurrence of large shear motion in sea ice. Divergence is shown to be negligibly correlated to cyclonic motion in summer and winter in both ice zones.

Arctic Ocean↗

Investigation of Cloud Feedback in the GLAS Model

The theoretical and observational studies of cirrus clouds were reviewed to provide information for more realistic treatments of cirrus in the general circulation models. Based on the review, one time-step and ten-day model simulations were conducted to investigate the differences in the longwave radiation flux between the black and transparent cirrus treatment in the infrared. For both experiments substantial difference in the outgoing longwave flux at the top of the atmosphere is found. For the ten-day simulations, the differences in the convective, supersaturation and total cloudiness, temperature, and sensible and latent heat fluxes are also examined on various temporal and spatial scales. Although the cause-and-effect is difficult to identify, the results clearly suggest that on the time scale of a few days and longer cloud-radiation interactions play an important role. Sensitivity study of the longwave radiation flux to different longwave radiation parameterizations was performed by comparing the calculated fluxes between the Wu-Kaplan's scheme used in the present GLAS model and the Wang's schemes for climate studies.

Wang, W. C.↗

Latitude-dependent sensitivity to stationary perturbations in simple climate models

The steady-state zonally averaged climate is perturbed by adding a latitude-dependent heat source to an energy balance equation of the simplified Budyko-Sellers type. The latitude of the ice edge, which is attached to an isotherm, becomes dependent on the strength of the perturbation. This dependence is given in terms of the well-known iceline-solar constant relation, and the latitude dependence of the perturbed temperature field is then uniquely determined. The exact analytical solution is linearized and expressed in terms of a superposition of line sources at various latitudes. The main features are: (1) The total temperature response is a sum of the direct effect of the perturbation and an indirect ice-albedo effect proportional to the solar ice-edge sensitivity; and (2) the indirect feedback effect produces an enhanced response in polar latitudes.

Salmun, H.↗

Prescribing Stratospheric Chemistry Overestimates Southern Hemisphere Climate Change During Austral Spring in Response to Quadrupled CO2

The interaction of stratospheric chemistry with a changing climate from an abrupt CO2 quadrupling is assessed using the coupled atmosphere–ocean Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). Two abrupt 4 × CO2 experiments were performed, one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with a prescribed stratospheric chemistry that does not simulate stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2. The interactive and prescribed chemistry experiments simulate similar global mean surface temperature change. Nevertheless, interactive chemistry is critical to capture the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric midlatitude jet response to 4 × CO2. When stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2 is neglected, GEOSCCM overestimates Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation change. This stratospheric chemistry-induced climate impact has large seasonal variability. During the austral spring season September–October–November (SON), prescribed chemistry yields a stronger poleward shift and intensification of the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude tropospheric jet, surface wind stress, and the Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation than occurs with interactive chemistry. In other seasons interactive and prescribed chemistry have similar effects on the Southern Hemisphere circulation. The seasonality of stratospheric chemistry-induced climate impact is related to the seasonality of Antarctic lower stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2. In contrast to this stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2, stratospheric ozone recovery from decline of the ozone depleting substances has its largest impact on the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation in austral summer (December–January–February), but no effects in SON. It is found that the different seasonality for these two stratospheric ozone layer change scenarios is related to the different seasonality of tropopause meridional temperature gradient response.

Stratospheric ozone feedback↗

Increased Greenland Melt Triggered by Large-Scale, Year-Round Cyclonic Moisture Intrusions

Surface melting is a major driver of Greenland's mass loss. Yet, the mechanisms that trigger melt are still insufficiently understood because seasonally based studies blend processes initiating melt with positive feedbacks. Here, we focus on the triggers of melt by examining the synoptic atmospheric conditions associated with 313 rapid melt increases, detected in a satellite-derived melt extent product, equally distributed throughout the year over the period 1979-2012. By combining reanalysis and weather station data, we show that melt is initiated by a cyclone-driven, southerly flow of warm, moist air, which gives rise to large-scale precipitation. A decomposition of the synoptic atmospheric variability over Greenland suggests that the identified, melt-triggering weather pattern accounts for approximately 40 percent of the net precipitation, but increases in the frequency, duration and areal extent of the initiated melting have shifted the line between mass gain and mass loss as more melt and rainwater run off or accumulate in the snowpack. Using a regional climate model, we estimate that the initiated melting more than doubled over the investigated period, amounting to approximately 28 percent of the overall surface melt and revealing that, despite the involved mass gain, year-round precipitation events are participating in the ice sheet's decline.

Oltmanns, Marilena↗

Uncertainty Analysis for the Miniaturized Laser Heterodyne Radiometer (mini-LHR)

Presented here is a sensitivity analysis for the miniaturized laser heterodyne radiometer (mini-LHR). This passive, ground-based instrument measures carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmospheric column and has been under development at NASA/GSFC since 2009. The goal of this development is to produce a low-cost, easily-deployable instrument that can extend current ground measurement networks in order to (1) validate column satellite observations, (2) provide coverage in regions of limited satellite observations, (3) target regions of interest such as thawing permafrost, and (4) support the continuity of a long-term climate record. In this paper an uncertainty analysis of the instrument performance is presented and compared with results from three sets of field measurements. The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and corresponding uncertainty for a single scan are calculated to be 329.4+/-1.3 by deploying error propagation through the equation governing the SNR. Reported is an absorbance noise of 0.0024 for 6 averaged scans of field data, for an instrument precision of approximately 0.2 ppmv for CO2.

carbon dioxide (CO2)↗

Sensitivity of June Near-Surface Temperatures and Precipitation in the Eastern United States to Historical Land Cover Changes Since European Settlement

Land cover changes alter the near surface weather and climate. Changes in land surface properties such as albedo, roughness length, stomatal resistance, and leaf area index alter the surface energy balance, leading to differences in near surface temperatures. This study utilized a newly developed land cover data set for the eastern United States to examine the influence of historical land cover change on June temperatures and precipitation. The new data set contains representations of the land cover and associated biophysical parameters for 1650, 1850, 1920, and 1992, capturing the clearing of the forest and the expansion of agriculture over the eastern United States from 1650 to the early twentieth century and the subsequent forest regrowth. The data set also includes the inferred distribution of potentially water-saturated soils at each time slice for use in the sensitivity tests. The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System, equipped with the Land Ecosystem-Atmosphere Feedback (LEAF-2) land surface parameterization, was used to simulate the weather of June 1996 using the 1992, 1920, 1850, and 1650 land cover representations. The results suggest that changes in surface roughness and stomatal resistance have caused present-day maximum and minimum temperatures in the eastern United States to warm by about 0.3 C and 0.4 C, respectively, when compared to values in 1650. In contrast, the maximum temperatures have remained about the same, while the minimums have cooled by about 0.1 C when compared to 1920. Little change in precipitation was found.

Strack, John E.↗

Recent Trends in Transport of Surface Carbonaceous Aerosols to the Upper-Troposphere-Lower-Stratosphere Linked to Expansion of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone

Using MERRA-2 re-analyses, we have examined recent trends (2000-2019) in transport of surface carbonaceous aerosols (CA), i.e., organic carbon (OC) and black carbon (BC), to the upper troposphere (UT) and lower stratosphere (LS) during the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). We find a significant increased concentration of UTLS CA, linked to a linear trend in an expansion of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone (ASMA). Over core monsoon latitudes (25°-35°N), the trends in UTLS CA are enabled by increased upward transport from surface sources via an intensified monsoon meridional circulation, with increased latent heating over the southern Tibetan Plateau and foothill regions, enhanced by feedback processes associated with radiative heating by UTLS CA. In the extra-tropics, increased UTLS CA stems primarily from an extended source of increased wildfire emissions over eastern Siberia and northern Asia, coincident with a large-scale anomalous anticyclone with enhanced surface warming and drying near (80°-120°E, 55°-70°N). Here, carbonaceous aerosols are transported upward from the surface to the LS, likely by increased pyro-convection associated with enhanced wildfires, and enter the tropical UTLS via increased equator ward transport on the eastern flanks of anomalous upper-level anticyclones, coupled to the expanded ASMA. Overall, the increasing UTLS CA trends associated with expansion of the ASMA are consistent with a hydrostatic expansion of a warming troposphere, reflected in a rise in the tropical tropopause and consequential dynamical adjustments of the [ASM subtropical jetstream, modulating the climate of the greater ASM region.

interdecadal trends↗

Interactions Between the Thermohaline Circulation and Tropical Atlantic SST in a Coupled General Circulation Model

Tropical Atlantic SST shows a (statistically well-defined) decadal time scale in a 104-year simulation of unforced variability by a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The SST anomalies superficially resemble observed Tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), and are associated with changes in the atmospheric circulation. Brazilian rainfall is modulated with a decadal time scale, along with the strength of the Atlantic trade winds, which are associated with variations in evaporation and the net surface heat flux. However, in contrast to observed tropical Atlantic variability, the trade winds damp the associated anomalies in ocean temperature, indicating a negative feedback. Tropical SST anomalies in the CGCM, though opposed by the surface heat flux, are advected in from the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. These variations modulate the strength of the thermohaline circulation (THC): warm, salty anomalies at the equator sink drawing cold, fresh mid-latitude water. Upon reaching the equator, the latter inhibit vertical overturning and advection from higher latitudes, which allows warm, salty anomalies to reform, returning the cycle to its original state. Thus, the cycle results from advection of density anomalies and the effect of these anomalies upon the rate of vertical overturning and surface advection. This decadal modulation of Tropical Atlantic SST and the thermohaline circulation is correlated with ocean heat transport to the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and Norwegian Sea SST. Because of the central role of equatorial convection, we question whether this mechanism is present in the current climate, although we speculate that it may have operated in palaeo times, depending upon the stability of the tropical water column.

Miller, Ron↗

Impact of Radiatively Interactive Dust Aerosols in the NASA GEOS-5 Climate Model: Sensitivity to Dust Particle Shape and Refractive Index

We investigate the radiative effects of dust aerosols in the NASA GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model. GEOS-5 is improved with the inclusion of a sectional aerosol and cloud microphysics module, the Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA). Into CARMA we introduce treatment of the dust and sea salt aerosol lifecycle, including sources, transport evolution, and sinks. The aerosols are radiatively coupled to GEOS-5, and we perform a series of multi-decade AMIP-style simulations in which dust optical properties (spectral refractive index and particle shape distribution) are varied. Optical properties assuming spherical dust particles are from Mie theory, while those for non-spherical shape distributions are drawn from a recently available database for tri-axial ellipsoids. The climatologies of the various simulations generally compare well to data from the MODIS, MISR, and CALIOP space-based sensors, the ground-based AERONET, and surface measurements of dust deposition and concentration. Focusing on the summertime Saharan dust cycle we show significant variability in our simulations resulting from different choices of dust optical properties. Atmospheric heating due to dust enhances surface winds over important Saharan dust sources, and we find a positive feedback where increased dust absorption leads to increased dust emissions. We further find that increased dust absorption leads to a strengthening of the summertime Hadley cell circulation, increasing dust lofting to higher altitudes and strengthening the African Easterly Jet. This leads to a longer atmospheric residence time, higher altitude, and generally more northward transport of dust in simulations with the most absorbing dust optical properties. We find that particle shape, although important for radiance simulations, is a minor effect compared to choices of refractive index, although total atmospheric forcing is enhanced by greater than 10 percent for simulations incorporating a spheroidal shape distribution versus ellipsoidal or spherical shapes.

radiative forcing↗

Understanding the Environmental and Climate Impacts of Biomass Burning in Northern Sub-Saharan Africa

The northern sub-Saharan African (NSSA) region, bounded on the north and south by the Sahara and the Equator, respectively, and stretching from the West to the East African coastlines, has one of the highest biomass-burning rates per unit land area among all regions of the world. Because of the high concentration and frequency of fires in this region, with the associated abundance of heat release and gaseous and particulate smoke emissions, biomass-burning activity is believed to be one of the drivers of the regional carbon and energy cycles, with serious implications for the water cycle. A new interdisciplinary research effort sponsored by NASA is presently being focused on the NSSA region, to better understand the possible connection between the intense biomass burning observed from satellite year after year across the region and the rapid depletion of the regional water resources, as exemplified by the dramatic drying of Lake Chad. A combination of remote sensing and modeling approaches is being utilized in investigating multiple regional surface, atmospheric, and water-cycle processes, and inferring possible links between them. In this presentation, we will discuss preliminary results as well as the path toward improved understanding'of the interrelationships and feedbacks between the biomass burning and the environmental change dynamics in the NSSA region.

Ichoku, Charles↗

Instrumentation for Examining Microbial Response to Changes In Environmental Pressures

The Automated Adaptive Directed Evolution Chamber (AADEC) is a device that allows operators to generate a micro-scale analog of real world systems that can be used to model the local-scale effects of climate change on microbial ecosystems. The AADEC uses an artificial environment to expose cultures of micro-organisms to environmental pressures, such as UV-C radiation, chemical toxins, and temperature. The AADEC autonomously exposes micro-organisms to selection pressures. This improves upon standard manual laboratory techniques: the process can take place over a longer period of time, involve more stressors, implement real-time adjustments based on the state of the population, and minimize the risk of contamination. We currently use UV-C radiation as the main selection pressure, UV-C is well studied both for its cell and DNA damaging effects as a type of selection pressure and for its related effectiveness as a mutagen; having these functions united makes it a good choice for a proof of concept. The AADEC roadmap includes expansion to different selection pressures, including heavy metal toxicity, temperature, and other forms of radiation.The AADEC uses closed-loop control to feedback the current state of the culture to the AADEC controller that modifies selection pressure intensity during experimentation, in this case culture density and growth rate. Culture density and growth rate are determined by measuring the optical density of the culture using 600 nm light. An array of 600 nm LEDs illuminate the culture and photodiodes are used to measure the shadow on the opposite side of the chamber.Previous experiments showed that we can produce a million fold increase to UV-C radiation over seven iterations. The most recent implements a microfluidic system that can expose cultures to multiple different selection pressures, perform non-survival based selection, and autonomously perform hundreds of exposure cycles. A scalable pump system gives the ability to pump in various different growth media to individual cultures and introduce chemical toxins during experimentation; AADEC can perform freeze and thaw cycles. We improved our baseline characterization by building a custom UV-C exposure hood, a shutter operates on a preset timer allowing the user to set exposure intensity consistently for multiple iterations.

Environment↗

Quantifying the Aerosol Semi-Direct Effect in the NASA GEOS-5 AGCM

Aerosols such as black carbon, dust, and some organic carbon species both scatter and absorb incoming solar radiation. This direct aerosol radiative forcing (DARF) redistributes solar energy both by cooling the surface and warming the atmosphere. As a result, these aerosols affect atmospheric stability and cloud cover (the semi-direct effect, or SDE). Furthermore, in regions with persistent high loadings of absorbing aerosols (e.g. Asia), regional circulation patterns may be altered, potentially resulting in changes in precipitation patterns. Here we investigate aerosol-climate coupling using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), in which we have implemented an online version of the Goddard Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. GOCART includes representations of the sources, sinks, and chemical transformation of externally mixed dust, sea salt, sulfate, and carbonaceous aerosols. We examine a series of free-running ensemble climate simulations of the present-day period (2000-2009) forced by observed sea surface temperatures to determine the impact of aerosols on the model climate. The SDE and response of each simulation is determined by differencing with respect to the control simulation (no aerosol forcing). In a free-running model, any estimate of the SDE includes changes in clouds due both to atmospheric heating from aerosols and changes in circulation. To try and quantify the SDE without these circulation changes we then examine the DARF and SDE in GEOS-5 with prescribed meteorological analyses introduced by the MERRA analysis. By doing so, we are able to examine changes in model clouds that occur on shorter scales (six hours). In the GEOS-5 data assimilation system (DAS), the analysis is defined as the best estimate of the atmospheric state at any given time, and it is determined by optimally combining a first-guess short-term GCM forecast with all available observations. The Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) is added to the model forecast tendencies to align them with the analysis every six hours, thus preventing longer timescale feedbacks due to the aerosol forcing. We calculate the SDE by comparing model runs with and without aerosols, and the difference in the IAU between these runs is a useful metric with which to evaluate the impact of the SDE on the model atmosphere and clouds. Decreasing the IAU indicates that the aerosol direct and semi-direct effects act to reduce the bias between the model and observations and vice versa.

Randles, Cynthia A.↗

Use of satellite data and modeling to assess the influence of stratospheric processes on the troposphere

Over the past forty years, numerous linear stability studies have been performed in order to explain the origin and structure of observed waves in the atmosphere. Of these studies, only a small fraction have considered the stability of time-dependent, zonally varying flow or the influence of radiative-photochemical feedbacks on the stability of zonally uniform flow. The stability of such flows is described, and these flows may yield important information concerning the origin, structure, and transient time scales of free waves in the atmosphere. During the period 1990 to 1991, a beta-plane model that couples radiative transfer, ozone advection, and ozone photochemistry with the quasigeostrophic dynamical circulation was developed in order to study the diabatic effects of Newtonian cooling and ozone-dynamics interaction on the linear stability of free planetary waves in the atmosphere. The stability of a basic state consisting of a westward-moving wave and a zonal mean jet was examined using a linearized, nondivergent barotropic model on sphere. The sensitivity of the stability of the flow to the strength and structure of the zonal jet was emphasized. The current research is focused on the following problems: (1) examination of the finite amplitude interactions among radiation, ozone, and dynamics; and (2) examination of the role of seasonal forcing in short-term climate variability. The plans for next year are presented.

Nathan, Terrence↗

Natural Air-Sea Flux of CO2 in Simulations of the NASA-GISS Climate Model: Sensitivity to the Physical Ocean Model Formulation

Results from twin control simulations of the preindustrial CO2 gas exchange (natural flux of CO2) between the ocean and the atmosphere are presented here using the NASA-GISS climate model, in which the same atmospheric component (modelE2) is coupled to two different ocean models, the Russell ocean model and HYCOM. Both incarnations of the GISS climate model are also coupled to the same ocean biogeochemistry module (NOBM) which estimates prognostic distributions for biotic and abiotic fields that influence the air-sea flux of CO2. Model intercomparison is carried out at equilibrium conditions and model differences are contrasted with biases from present day climatologies. Although the models agree on the spatial patterns of the air-sea flux of CO2, they disagree on the strength of the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean sinks mainly because of kinematic (winds) and chemistry (pCO2) differences rather than thermodynamic (SST) ones. Biology/chemistry dissimilarities in the models stem from the different parameterizations of advective and diffusive processes, such as overturning, mixing and horizontal tracer advection and to a lesser degree from parameterizations of biogeochemical processes such as gravitational settling and sinking. The global meridional overturning circulation illustrates much of the different behavior of the biological pump in the two models, together with differences in mixed layer depth which are responsible for different SST, DIC and nutrient distributions in the two models and consequently different atmospheric feedbacks (in the wind, net heat and freshwater fluxes into the ocean).

Gas exchange↗