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At least 667 records · Page 37

Fluxes of CO 2 , CH 4 , CO, BVOCs, NOx, and O 3 in an Old Growth Amazonian Forest: Ecosystem Processes, Carbon Cycle, Atmospheric Chemistry, and Feedbacks on Climate

A comprehensive, merged data set of trace gases (NO, NO 2 , CO 2 , CH 4 and O 3 ) along with has been tabulated and subjected to meticulous quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC). The merged data set is being submitted to the ARM website dedicated to the Green Ocean Experiment: https://www.arm.gov/research/campaigns/amf2014goamazon Analysis using the final data set is in progress to determine the magnitudes of the fluxes for CH 4 , H 2 O, CO 2 , O 3 , NO x , sensible and latent heat, momentum, and their seasonal variations. Here are summary statements, from the discussion above: Total NO fluxes were calculated following Keller et al., 1986. A vertical gradient is established in the mixing ratio of NO because it is emitted at the soil surface and mixed upward in the atmosphere (see above). Once in the atmosphere, the NO reacts rapidly with O 3 to produce NO 2 (NO + O 3 → NO 2 + O 2 ). Therefore, if the vertical profiles of the mixing ratios of NO and O 3 are known, the surface flux of NO may be determined. If any other reaction removes NO (e.g., deposition on leaves), FNO should estimate the lower limit to the NO flux from the soil in this forest. Our preliminary results show fluxes of NO averaged 133 x 10 9 molecules cm -2 s -1 , a factor of 4 higher than fluxes previously observed in white sand soils in the Amazon, and a factor of 3 to 14 higher than fluxes observed for yellow clay soils (Bakwin et al., 1990 and references therein). The soil in the km 67 site is predominately oxisol with pockets of sandy ultisols, both having low reduced nutrient contents, mostly due to efficient microorganism decomposition and acid leaching by rain water. Oxisols contain both oxidized and reduced forms of nitrogen, of which concentrations vary independently of leaching (Jordan et al., 1982), with most part of the cycling processes occurring in the top layers. Methane fluxes showed no statistical difference between 2015 wet and dry seasons, and the forest at this site appear to be a methane sink throughout the year. The vertical profiles suggest that if a methane source exists in this forest, it might be in the canopy. Next steps include modeling and analysis using the Master Chemical Mechanism (Jenkin et al., 1997; Saunders et al., 2003 (A/B); http://mcm.leeds.ac.uk/MCM/) and the Ecosystem Demography-2 (ED-2) model. A final manuscript with the results from this work is in preparation and expected to be submitted for publication within the next several months. Publications to date are listed below.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

High-latitude warming initiated the onset of the last deglaciation in the tropics

Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are thought to have synchronized global temperatures during Pleistocene glacial–interglacial cycles, yet their impact relative to changes in high-latitude insolation and ice-sheet extent remains poorly constrained. Here, we use tropical glacial fluctuations to assess the timing of low-latitude temperature changes relative to global climate forcings. We report 10 Be ages of moraines in tropical East Africa and South America and show that glaciers reached their maxima at ~29 to 20 ka, during the global Last Glacial Maximum. Tropical glacial recession was underway by 20 ka, before the rapid CO 2 rise at ~18.2 ka. This “early” tropical warming was influenced by rising high-latitude insolation and coincident ice-sheet recession in both polar regions, which lowered the meridional thermal gradient and reduced tropical heat export to the high latitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Genomic fingerprints of the world’s soil ecosystems

Despite the explosion of soil metagenomic data, we lack a synthesized understanding of patterns in the distribution and functions of soil microorganisms. These patterns are critical to predictions of soil microbiome responses to climate change and resulting feedbacks that regulate greenhouse gas release from soils. To address this gap, we assay 1,512 manually curated soil metagenomes using complementary annotation databases, read-based taxonomy, and machine learning to extract multidimensional genomic fingerprints of global soil microbiomes. Our objective is to uncover novel biogeographical patterns of soil microbiomes across environmental factors and ecological biomes with high molecular resolution. We reveal shifts in the potential for (i) microbial nutrient acquisition across pH gradients; (ii) stress-, transport-, and redox-based processes across changes in soil bulk density; and (iii) greenhouse gas emissions across biomes. We also use an unsupervised approach to reveal a collection of soils with distinct genomic signatures, characterized by coordinated changes in soil organic carbon, nitrogen, and cation exchange capacity and in bulk density and clay content that may ultimately reflect soil environments with high microbial activity. Genomic fingerprints for these soils highlight the importance of resource scavenging, plant-microbe interactions, fungi, and heterotrophic metabolisms. Across all analyses, we observed phylogenetic coherence in soil microbiomes—more closely related microorganisms tended to move congruently in response to soil factors. Collectively, the genomic fingerprints uncovered here present a basis for global patterns in the microbial mechanisms underlying soil biogeochemistry and help beget tractable microbial reaction networks for incorporation into process-based models of soil carbon and nutrient cycling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Vertical Diffusivities of Active and Passive Tracers

The climate models that include a carbon-cycle need the vertical diffusivity of a passive tracer. Since an expression for the latter is not available, it has been common practice to identify it with that of salt. The identification is questionable since T, S are active, not passive tracers. We present the first derivation of the diffusivity of a passive tracer in terms of Ri (Richardson number) and Rq (density ratio, ratio of salinity over temperature z-gradients). The following results have emerged: (a) The passive tracer diffusivity is an algebraic function of Ri, Rq. (b) In doubly stable regimes (DS, partial derivative of T with respect to z > 0, partial derivative of S with respect to z < 0), the passive scalar diffusivity is nearly the same as that of salt/heat for any values of Rq < 0 and Ri > 0. (c) In DC regimes (diffusive convection, partial derivative of T with respect to z < 0, partial derivative of S with respect to z < 0, Rq > 1), the passive scalar diffusivity is larger than that of salt. At Ri = O(1), it can be more than twice as large. (d) In SF regimes (salt fingers, partial derivative of T with respect to z > 0, partial derivative of S with respect to z > 0, Rq < 1), the passive scalar diffusivity is smaller than that of salt. At Ri = O(1), it can be less than half of it. (e) The passive tracer diffusivity predicted at the location of NATRE (North Atlantic Tracer Release Experiment) is discussed. (f) Perhaps the most relevant conclusion is that the common identification of the tracer diffusivity with that of salt is valid only in DS regimes. In the Southern Ocean, where there is the largest CO2 absorption, the dominant regime is diffusive convection discussed in (c) above.

Canuto, V. M.↗

Assessing the Urban Heat Island Effect Across Biomes in the Continental USA Using Landsat and MODIS

Impervious surface area (ISA) from the Landsat TM and land surface temperature (LST) from MODIS averaged over three annual cycles (2003-2005) are used in a spatial analysis to assess the urban heat island (UHI) skin temperature amplitude and its relationship to development intensity, size, and ecological setting for 38 of the most populous cities in the continental United States. Development intensity zones based on %ISA are defined across urban gradients and used to stratify sampling of LST and NDVI. We find that ecological context significantly influences the amplitude of summer daytime UHI (urban - rural temperature difference) with the largest 8 C (average) for cities built in mixed forest biomes. For all cities ISA is the primary driver for increase in temperature explaining 70% of the total variance. Annually, urban areas are warmer than the non-urban fringe by 2.9 C, except in biomes with arid and semiarid climates. The average amplitude of the UHI is asymmetric with a 4.3 C difference in summer and 1.3 C in winter. In desert environments, UHI's point to a possible heat sink effect. Results show that the urban heat island amplitude increases with city size and is seasonally asymmetric for a large number of cities across most biomes. The implications are that for urban areas developed within forested ecosystems the summertime UHI can be quite high relative to the wintertime UHI suggesting that the residential energy consumption required for summer cooling is likely to increase with urban growth within those biomes.

Imhoff, Marc L.↗

Investigating the Response of Land-Atmosphere Interactions and Feedbacks to Spatial Representation of Irrigation in a Coupled Modeling Framework

The transport of water, heat, and momentum from the surface to the atmosphere is dependent in part on the 10 characteristics of the land surface. Together with the model physics, parameterization schemes, and parameters employed, land datasets determine the spatial variability in land surface states (i.e., soil moisture and temperature) and fluxes. Despite the importance of these datasets, they are often chosen out of convenience or regional limitations without due assessment of their impacts on model results. Irrigation is an anthropogenic form of land heterogeneity that has been shown to alter the land surface energy balance, ambient weather, and local circulations. As such, irrigation schemes are becoming more 15 prevalent in weather and climate models with rapid developments in dataset availability and parameterization scheme complexity. Thus, to address pragmatic issues related to modeling irrigation, this study uses a high-resolution, regional coupled modeling system to investigate the impacts of irrigation dataset selection on land-atmosphere (L-A) coupling using a case study from the Great Plains Irrigation Experiment (GRAINEX) field campaign. The simulations are assessed in the context of irrigated versus non-irrigated regions, subregions across the irrigation gradient, and sub-grid scale process 20 representation in coarser scale models. The results show that L-A coupling is sensitive to the choice of irrigation dataset and resolution and that the irrigation impact on surface fluxes and near surface meteorology can be dominant, conditioned on the details of the irrigation map (i.e., boundaries, heterogeneity, etc), or minimal. A consistent finding across several analyses was that even a low percentage of irrigation fraction (i.e., 4-16%) can have significant local and downstream atmospheric impacts (e.g., lower PBL height), suggesting that representation of boundaries and heterogeneous areas within irrigated 25 regions is particularly important for the modeling of irrigation impacts on the atmosphere in this model. When viewing the simulations presented here as a proxy for ‘ideal’ tiling in a Earth System Model scale gridbox, the results show that some ‘tiles’ will reach critical nonlinear moisture and planetary boundary layer (PBL) thresholds that could be important for clouds and convection, implying that heterogeneity resulting from irrigation should be taken into consideration in new sub-grid land-atmosphere exchange parameterizations.

Patricia Lawston-Parker↗

Prescribing Stratospheric Chemistry Overestimates Southern Hemisphere Climate Change During Austral Spring in Response to Quadrupled CO2

The interaction of stratospheric chemistry with a changing climate from an abrupt CO2 quadrupling is assessed using the coupled atmosphere–ocean Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). Two abrupt 4 × CO2 experiments were performed, one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with a prescribed stratospheric chemistry that does not simulate stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2. The interactive and prescribed chemistry experiments simulate similar global mean surface temperature change. Nevertheless, interactive chemistry is critical to capture the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric midlatitude jet response to 4 × CO2. When stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2 is neglected, GEOSCCM overestimates Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation change. This stratospheric chemistry-induced climate impact has large seasonal variability. During the austral spring season September–October–November (SON), prescribed chemistry yields a stronger poleward shift and intensification of the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude tropospheric jet, surface wind stress, and the Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation than occurs with interactive chemistry. In other seasons interactive and prescribed chemistry have similar effects on the Southern Hemisphere circulation. The seasonality of stratospheric chemistry-induced climate impact is related to the seasonality of Antarctic lower stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2. In contrast to this stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2, stratospheric ozone recovery from decline of the ozone depleting substances has its largest impact on the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation in austral summer (December–January–February), but no effects in SON. It is found that the different seasonality for these two stratospheric ozone layer change scenarios is related to the different seasonality of tropopause meridional temperature gradient response.

Stratospheric ozone feedback↗

Spatial variation in microbial processes controlling carbon mineralization within soils and sediments

Soils have a defining role in global carbon cycling, having one of the largest dynamic stocks of C on earth—3300 Pg of C are stored in soils, which is three-times the amount stored in the atmosphere and more than the terrestrial land plants. An important control on soil organic matter (SOM) quantities is the mineralization rate. It is well recognized that the rate and extent of SOM mineralization is affected by climatic factors and mineral-organic matter associations. What remained elusive is to what extent constraints on microbial metabolism induced by the respiratory pathway, and specifically the electron acceptor in respiration, control overall rates of carbon mineralization in soils. Therefore, physical factors limiting oxygen diffusion such as soil texture and aggregate size (soil structure) may therefore be central controls on C mineralization rates. The goal of our research was therefore to determine if variations in microbial metabolic rates induced by anaerobic microsites in soils are a major control on SOM mineralization rates and thus storage. We performed a combination of laboratory experiments and field investigations will be performed to fulfill our research objectives. We used laboratory studies to examine fundamental factors of respiratory constraints (i.e., electron acceptor) on organic matter mineralization rates. We ground our laboratory studies with both manipulation of field samples and in-field measurements. Selection of the field sites is guided by variation in soil texture and structure while having (other environmental/soil factors constant. Our laboratory studies defined redox gradients and variations in microbial metabolism operating at the aggregate-scale (cm-scale) within soils using a novel constructed diffusion reactor. We further examined micro-scale variation in terminal electron accepting processes and resulting C mineralization rates within re-packed soils. A major outcome of our research is the ability to quantitatively place the importance of aggregate-based heterogeneity in microbial redox processes and the resulting lack of oxygen on the rate of carbon mineralization. Collectively, our research shows that anaerobic microsites are prevalent in soils and are important regulators of soil carbon persistence, shifting microbial metabolism to less efficient anaerobic respiration and selectively protecting otherwise bioavailable, reduced organic compounds such as lipids and waxes from decomposition. Further, shifting from anaerobic to aerobic conditions leads to a 10-fold increase in volume-specific mineralization rate, illustrating the sensitivity of anaerobically protected carbon to disturbance. Vulnerability of anaerobically protected carbon to future climate or land use change thus constitutes a yet unrecognized soil carbon-climate feedback that should be incorporated into terrestrial ecosystem models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global-scale distribution of ozone in the remote troposphere from ATom and HIPPO airborne field missions

Ozone is a key constituent of the troposphere, where it drives photochemical processes, impacts air quality, and acts as a climate forcer. Large-scale in situ observations of ozone commensurate with the grid resolution of current Earth system models are necessary to validate model outputs and satellite retrievals. In this paper, we examine measurements from the Atmospheric Tomography (ATom; four deployments in 2016–2018) and the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO; five deployments in 2009–2011) experiments, two global-scale airborne campaigns covering the Pacific and Atlantic basins. ATom and HIPPO represent the first global-scale, vertically resolved measurements of O3 distributions throughout the troposphere, with HIPPO sampling the atmosphere over the Pacific and ATom sampling both the Pacific and Atlantic. Given the relatively limited temporal resolution of these two campaigns, we first compare ATom and HIPPO ozone data to longer-term observational records to establish the representativeness of our dataset. We show that these two airborne campaigns captured on average 53 %, 54 %, and 38 % of the ozone variability in the marine boundary layer, free troposphere, and upper troposphere–lower stratosphere (UTLS), respectively, at nine well-established ozonesonde sites. Additionally, ATom captured the most frequent ozone concentrations measured by regular commercial aircraft flights in the northern Atlantic UTLS. We then use the repeated vertical profiles from these two campaigns to confirm and extend the existing knowledge of tropospheric ozone spatial and vertical distributions throughout the remote troposphere. We highlight a clear hemispheric gradient, with greater ozone in the Northern Hemisphere, consistent with greater precursor emissions and consistent with previous modeling and satellite studies. We also show that the ozone distribution below 8 km was similar in the extra-tropics of the Atlantic and Pacific basins, likely due to zonal circulation patterns. However, twice as much ozone was found in the tropical Atlantic as in the tropical Pacific, due to well-documented dynamical patterns transporting continental air masses over the Atlantic. Finally, we show that the seasonal variability of tropospheric ozone over the Pacific and the Atlantic basins is driven year-round by transported continental plumes and photochemistry, and the vertical distribution is driven by photochemistry and mixing with stratospheric air. This new dataset provides additional constraints for global climate and chemistry models to improve our understanding of both ozone production and loss processes in remote regions, as well as the influence of anthropogenic emissions on baseline ozone.

ATom, aircraft profiles, Atlantic pollution, ozone↗

Riverine bacterioplankton and phytoplankton assembly along an environmental gradient induced by urbanization

In the Anthropocene, human activities are intensifying stresses on biological communities across ecosystems. Knowledge on how environmental changes influence microbial community dynamics is crucial but currently limited. Here we unraveled ecological processes generating distribution patterns of bacterioplankton and phytoplankton communities in a river draining an urbanizing watershed in southern China. In this ecosystem, longitudinal environmental heterogeneity and directional flow potentially have counteracting effects on planktonic community assembly. Using simultaneously multiple approaches, we showed that the observed compositional patterns result from an interplay of stochastic and deterministic processes, indicating that dispersal via fluvial connectivity could not override local selective pressures. Successional shifts in the relative importance of the above processes were associated with trends in climatic factors. High diversity was observed at the intermediate levels of ecological processes alongside intense inter-species interactions maintained by a few keystone taxa. Altogether, interactions between climatic conditions, landscape and hydrology control plankton community dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

INTEX-NA: Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment - North America

INTEX-NA is an integrated atmospheric chemistry field experiment to be performed over North America using the NASA DC-8 and P-3B aircraft as its primary platforms. It seeks to understand the exchange of chemicals and aerosols between continents and the global troposphere. The constituents of interest are ozone and its precursors (hydrocarbons, NOX and HOX), aerosols, and the major greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O). INTEX-NA will provide the observational database needed to quantify inflow, outflow, and transformations of chemicals over North America. INTEX-NA is to be performed in two phases. Phase A will take place during the period of May-August 2004 and Phase B during March-June 2006. Phase A is in summer when photochemistry is most intense and climatic issues involving aerosols and carbon cycle are most pressing, and Phase B is in spring when Asian transport to North America is at its peak. INTEX-NA will coordinate its activities with concurrent measurement programs including satellites (e. g. Terra, Aura, Envisat), field activities undertaken by the North American Carbon Program (NACP), and other U.S. and international partners. However, it is being designed as a 'stand alone' mission such that its successful execution is not contingent on other programs. Synthesis of the ensemble of observation from surface, airborne, and space platforms, with the help of global/regional models is an important It is anticipated that approximately 175 flight hours for each of the aircraft (DC-8 and P-3B) will be required for each Phase. Principal operational sites are tentatively selected to be Bangor, ME; Wallops Island, VA; Seattle, WA; Rhinelander, WI; Lancaster, CA; and New Orleans, LA. These coastal and continental sites can support large missions and are suitable for INTEX-NA objectives. The experiment will be supported by forecasts from meteorological and chemical models, satellite observations, surface networks, and enhanced O3,-sonde releases. In addition to characterizing Atlantic-outflow and Pacific-inflow, INTEX-NA will characterize air masses transported between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. INTEX-NA will be the first continental scale inflow, outflow, and transformation experiment to be performed over North America. It will provide the most comprehensive observational data set to date to understand the O3/NOX/HOX/aerosol photochemical system and the carbon cycle. One of the critical needs of the carbon cycle research is to obtain large-scale vertical and horizontal concentration gradients of CO2, throughout the troposphere over continental source/sink regions. INTEX-NA is ideally suited to perform this role. Coastal and continental operational sites will allow us to develop a curtain profile of greenhouse gases (e. g. CO2,) and other key pollutants across North America. Such information is central to our quantitative understanding of chemical budgets on the continental scale. We expect to provide a number of satellite under-flights over land and water to test and validate observations from the appropriate satellite platform (e. g. Aura). We plan to develop strong collaborations with other national and international observational programs. Results from INTEX-NA should directly benefit the development of environmental policy for air quality and climate change.

Singh, Hanwant B.↗

Virus ecology and 7‐year temporal dynamics across a permafrost thaw gradient

Abstract Soil microorganisms are pivotal in the global carbon cycle, but the viruses that affect them and their impact on ecosystems are less understood. In this study, we explored the diversity, dynamics, and ecology of soil viruses through 379 metagenomes collected annually from 2010 to 2017. These samples spanned the seasonally thawed active layer of a permafrost thaw gradient, which included palsa, bog, and fen habitats. We identified 5051 virus operational taxonomic units (vOTUs), doubling the known viruses for this site. These vOTUs were largely ephemeral within habitats, suggesting a turnover at the vOTU level from year to year. While the diversity varied by thaw stage and depth‐related patterns were specific to each habitat, the virus communities did not significantly change over time. The abundance ratios of virus to host at the phylum level did not show consistent trends across the thaw gradient, depth, or time. To assess potential ecosystem impacts, we predicted hosts in silico and found viruses linked to microbial lineages involved in the carbon cycle, such as methanotrophy and methanogenesis. This included the identification of viruses of Candidatus Methanoflorens, a significant global methane contributor. We also detected a variety of potential auxiliary metabolic genes, including 24 carbon‐degrading glycoside hydrolases, six of which are uniquely terrestrial. In conclusion, these long‐term observations enhance our understanding of soil viruses in the context of climate‐relevant processes and provide opportunities to explore their role in terrestrial carbon cycling.

Microbiology↗

Quantifying the Role of Ocean Dynamics in SST Variability across GCMs and Observations

Abstract Midlatitude SSTs forced by mesoscale oceanic processes can affect the large-scale atmosphere, pointing to the ocean’s crucial role outside the tropics. Previous studies have shown oceanic mesoscale processes’ effect on global and regional climate variability. This study quantifies the local contribution of ocean dynamics to mixed-layer temperature across the globe by directly estimating the ocean heat flux divergence resolved by state-of-the-art ocean reanalysis, eddy-resolving, and eddy-parameterized versions of two U.S. national climate models and indirectly from air–sea flux satellite-based estimates. Our results show that the eddy-resolving climate simulations resolve mixed-layer temperature variances that are larger and closer to those inferred from observations than both their eddy-parameterized counterparts and ECCO over much of the extratropics. The observations and the eddy-resolving models indicate a more significant role of ocean dynamics in the mixed-layer temperature variability than the surface fluxes over most extratropics compared to their eddy-parameterized versions. A frequency domain analysis shows that the better-resolved ocean mesoscale and thermal gradients enhance the variance over a time scale from 2 months to 30 years. Results show agreement in the ocean’s contribution among satellite-based estimates, ocean reanalysis products, and ocean eddy-resolving simulations. At the same time, differences emerge for ECCO and the eddy-parameterized models, suggesting that surface fluxes account for a larger fraction of the mixed-layer temperature variability in most of the extratropics.

Siqueira, L.↗

Airborne imaging spectroscopy surveys of Arctic and boreal Alaska and northwestern Canada 2017–2023

Since 2015, NASA’s Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) has investigated how climate change impacts the vulnerability and/or resilience of the permafrost-affected ecosystems of Alaska and northwestern Canada. ABoVE conducted extensive surveys with the Next Generation Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS-NG) during 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2022 and with AVIRIS-3 in 2023 to characterize tundra, taiga, peatlands, and wetlands in unprecedented detail. The ABoVE AVIRIS dataset comprises ~1700 individual flight lines covering ~120,000 km 2 with nominal 5 m × 5 m spatial resolution. Data include individual transects to capture important gradients like the tundra-taiga ecotone and maps of up to 10,000 km 2 for key study areas like the Mackenzie Delta. The ABoVE AVIRIS surveys enable diverse ecosystem science, provide crucial benchmark data for validating retrievals from the PACE, PRISMA, and EnMAP satellite sensors and help prepare for the SBG and CHIME missions. This paper guides interested researchers to fully explore the ABoVE AVIRIS spectral imagery and complements our guide to the ABoVE airborne synthetic aperture radar surveys.

Miller, Charles E. [California Institute of Techno↗

Selecting durable building envelope systems with machine learning assisted hygrothermal simulations database

Hygrothermal simulations provide insight into the energy performance and moisture durability of building envelope components under dynamic conditions. The inputs required for hygrothermal simulations are extensive, and carrying out simulations and analyses requires expert knowledge. An expert system, the Building Science Advisor (BSA), has been developed to predict the performance and select the energy-efficient and durable building envelope systems for different climates. The BSA consists of decision rules based on expert opinions and thousands of parametric simulation results for selected wall systems. The number of potential wall systems results in millions, too many to simulate all of them. We present how machine learning can help predict durability data, such as mold growth, while minimizing the number of simulations needed to run. The simulation results are used for training and validation of machine learning tools for predicting wall durability. We tested Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDT) for their applicability and model accuracy. Models developed with both methods showed adequate prediction performance (root mean square error of 0.195 and 0.209, respectively). Finally, we introduce how the information supports guidance for envelope design via an easy-to-use web-based tool that does not require the end-user to run hygrothermal simulations.

Salonvaara, Mikael↗

The effect of repeated hurricanes on the age of organic carbon in humid tropical forest soil

Abstract Increasing hurricane frequency and intensity with climate change is likely to affect soil organic carbon (C) stocks in tropical forests. We examined the cycling of C between soil pools and with depth at the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico in soils over a 30‐year period that spanned repeated hurricanes. We used a nonlinear matrix model of soil C pools and fluxes (“soilR”) and constrained the parameters with soil and litter survey data. Soil chemistry and stable and radiocarbon isotopes were measured from three soil depths across a topographic gradient in 1988 and 2018. Our results suggest that pulses and subsequent reduction of inputs caused by severe hurricanes in 1989, 1998, and two in 2017 led to faster mean transit times of soil C in 0–10 cm and 35–60 cm depths relative to a modeled control soil with constant inputs over the 30‐year period. Between 1988 and 2018, the occluded C stock increased and δ 13 C in all pools decreased, while changes in particulate and mineral‐associated C were undetectable. The differences between 1988 and 2018 suggest that hurricane disturbance results in a dilution of the occluded light C pool with an influx of young, debris‐deposited C, and possible microbial scavenging of old and young C in the particulate and mineral‐associated pools. These effects led to a younger total soil C pool with faster mean transit times. Our results suggest that the increasing frequency of intense hurricanes will speed up rates of C cycling in tropical forests, making soil C more sensitive to future tropical forest stressors.

14C↗

Continental-scale niche differentiation of dominant topsoil archaea in drylands

Archaea represent a diverse group of microorganisms often associated with extreme environments. However, an integrated understanding of biogeographical patterns of the specialist Haloarchaea and the potential generalist ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) across large-scale environmental gradients remains limited. Here, we hypothesize that niche differentiation determines their distinct distributions along environmental gradients. To test the hypothesis, we use a continental-scale research network including 173 dryland sites across northern China. Our results demonstrate that Haloarchaea and AOA dominate topsoil archaeal communities. As hypothesized, Haloarchaea and AOA show strong niche differentiation associated with two ecosystem types mainly found in China's drylands (i.e. deserts vs. grasslands), and they differ in the degree of habitat specialization. The relative abundance and richness of Haloarchaea are higher in deserts due to specialization to relatively high soil salinity and extreme climates, while those of AOA are greater in grassland soils. Our results further indicate a divergence in ecological processes underlying the segregated distributions of Haloarchaea and AOA. Haloarchaea are governed primarily by environmental-based processes while the more generalist AOA are assembled mostly via spatial-based processes. Our findings add to existing knowledge of large-scale biogeography of topsoil archaea, advancing our predictive understanding on changes in topsoil archaeal communities in a drier world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding Air-Sea Feedbacks to the MJO through Process Evaluation of Observations and Models (Final Report)

The goal of our project was to enhance our understanding of the role of coupling in the simulation of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) in coupled climate models. We developed diagnostics of precipitation and Sea Surface Temperature variability in climate models and investigated how they are related to metrics of MJO simulation performance. We found a relationship between models with a high spatial coherence of precipitation and a good propagation of the MJO through the Maritime Continent region, but no relationship between metrics of precipitation organisation and intensity. Analysis of coupled and uncoupled model simulations from the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) shows that coupling systematically improved the MJO simulation in both metrics that we investigated. We analysed the role of background moisture gradients in the MJO simulation performance following Lim et al. (2018) and found that although the model to model variation in moisture gradients to the west of Indonesia was related to model MJO performance, in general no single moisture gradient was as good at explaining a large fraction of MJO performance across the models as compared to a linear combination of those metrics, which was able to explain a significant fraction of the variance in the MJO performance. Those relationships were much stronger for coupled simulations than uncoupled simulations and stronger for those metrics that measured propagation of the MJO across the Maritime Continent than for overall MJO activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗