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NASA NTRS2023

Effects of Forcing Differences and Initial Conditions on Inter-Model Agreement in the VolMIP Volc-Pinatubo-Full Experiment

This paper provides initial results from a multi-model ensemble analysis based on the volc-pinatubo-full experiment performed within the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP) as part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The volc-pinatubo-full experiment is based on an ensemble of volcanic forcing-only climate simulations with the same volcanic aerosol dataset across the participating models (the 1991–1993 Pinatubo period from the CMIP6-GloSSAC dataset). The simulations are conducted within an idealized experimental design where initial states are sampled consistently across models from the CMIP6-piControl simulation providing unperturbed preindustrial background conditions. The multi-model ensemble includes output from an initial set of six participating Earth system models (CanESM5, GISS-E2.1-G, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MIROC-E2SL, MPI-ESM1.2-LR and UKESM1). The results show overall good agreement between the different models on the global and hemispheric scales concerning the surface climate responses, thus demonstrating the overall effectiveness of VolMIP's experimental design. However, small yet significant inter-model discrepancies are found in radiative fluxes, especially in the tropics, that preliminary analyses link with minor differences in forcing implementation; model physics, notably aerosol–radiation interactions; the simulation and sampling of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); and, possibly, the simulation of climate feedbacks operating in the tropics. We discuss the volc-pinatubo-full protocol and highlight the advantages of volcanic forcing experiments defined within a carefully designed protocol with respect to emerging modelling approaches based on large ensemble transient simulations. We identify how the VolMIP strategy could be improved in future phases of the initiative to ensure a cleaner sampling protocol with greater focus on the evolving state of ENSO in the pre-eruption period.

metadata↗

DOE OSTI2012

Will There Be a Significant Change to El Niño in the Twenty-First Century?

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response to anthropogenic climate change is assessed in the following 1° nominal resolution Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations: twentieth-century ensemble, preindustrial control, twenty-first-century projections, and stabilized 2100–2300 “extension runs.” ENSO variability weakens slightly with CO 2 ; however, various significance tests reveal that changes are insignificant at all but the highest CO 2 levels. Comparison with the 1850 control simulation suggests that ENSO changes may become significant on centennial time scales; the lack of signal in the twentieth- versus twenty-first-century ensembles is due to their limited duration. Changes to the mean state are consistent with previous studies: a weakening of the subtropical wind stress curl, an eastward shift of the tropical convective cells, a reduction in the zonal SST gradient, and an increase in vertical thermal stratification take place as CO 2 increases. The extratropical thermocline deepens throughout the twenty-first century, with the tropical thermocline changing slowly in response. The adjustment time scale is set by the relevant ocean dynamics, and the delay in its effect on ENSO variability is not diminished by increasing ensemble size. The CCSM4 results imply that twenty-first-century simulations may simply be too short for identification of significant tropical variability response to climate change. An examination of atmospheric teleconnections, in contrast, shows that the remote influences of ENSO do respond rapidly to climate change in some regions, particularly during boreal winter. Finally, this suggests that changes to ENSO impacts may take place well before changes to oceanic tropical variability itself become significant.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2002

Global Modeling Activities and NAME

In this talk I will review global modeling activities in the United States that could contribute to and benefit from NAME activities. I will present some preliminary results from several global atmospheric general circulation model simulation experiments for the initial NAME model intercomparison project period of May-Oct 1990. These include an ensemble of medium resolution simulations, and a high resolution (one half degree) simulation. I will also discuss possible high resolution global data assimilation experiments that could be used to help validate the model simulations and assimilate planned NAME observations.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

NASA NTRS2002

Global Modeling Activities and NAME

Schubert, Siegfried↗

DOE OSTI2015

The parametric sensitivity of CAM5's MJO

Abstract We systematically explore the ability of the Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5) to simulate the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO), through an analysis of MJO metrics calculated from a 1100‐member perturbed parameter ensemble of 5 year simulations with observed sea surface temperatures. Parameters from the deep convection scheme make the greatest contribution to the variance in MJO simulation quality with a much smaller contribution from parameters in the large‐scale cloud, shallow convection, and boundary layer turbulence schemes. Improved MJO variability results from a larger lateral entrainment rate and a reduction in the precipitation efficiency of deep convection that was achieved by a smaller autoconversion of cloud to rainwater and a larger evaporation of convective precipitation. Unfortunately, simulations with an improved MJO also have a significant negative impact on the climatological values of low‐level cloud and absorbed shortwave radiation, suggesting that structural in addition to parametric modifications to CAM5's parameterization suite are needed in order to simultaneously well simulate the MJO and mean‐state climate.

Boyle, J. S.↗

DOE OSTI2013

Implementation and Initial Evaluation of the Glimmer Community Ice Sheet Model in the Community Earth System Model

The Glimmer Community Ice Sheet Model (Glimmer-CISM) has been implemented in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Glimmer-CISM is forced by a surface mass balance (SMB) computed in multiple elevation classes in the CESM land model and downscaled to the ice sheet grid. Ice sheet evolution is governed by the shallow-ice approximation with thermomechanical coupling and basal sliding. This paper describes and evaluates the initial model implementation for the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). The ice sheet model was spun up using the SMB from a coupled CESM simulation with preindustrial forcing. The model's sensitivity to three key ice sheet parameters was explored by running an ensemble of 100 GIS simulations to quasi equilibrium and ranking each simulation based on multiple diagnostics. With reasonable parameter choices, the steady-state GIS geometry is broadly consistent with observations. The simulated ice sheet is too thick and extensive, however, in some marginal regions where the SMB is anomalously positive. The top-ranking simulations were continued using surface forcing from CESM simulations of the twentieth century (1850–2005) and twenty-first century (2005–2100, with RCP8.5 forcing). In these simulations the GIS loses mass, with a resulting global-mean sea level rise of 16 mm during 1850–2005 and 60 mm during 2005–2100. This mass loss is caused mainly by increased ablation near the ice sheet margin, offset by reduced ice discharge to the ocean. Projected sea level rise is sensitive to the initial geometry, showing the importance of realistic geometry in the spun-up ice sheet.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cyclone Fani: the tug-of-war between regional warming and anthropogenic aerosol effects

Before Cyclone Amphan took place in 2020, Cyclone Fani (May 2019) is the strongest pre-monsoon cyclone in the Bay of Bengal (BOB) since 1991, killing 90 people in eastern India and Bangladesh while causing US$1.81 billion of damages. Fani developed during a period of high concentration of anthropogenic aerosols in the BOB with abnormally high sea surface temperature (SST), thereby presenting an opportunity to understand the compound effects of atmospheric aerosols and regional climate warming on a tropical cyclone. A quantitative attribution analysis was conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) run at the convection-permitting (4 km) grid spacing, accompanied by an ensemble of coarser-resolution simulations to quantify the uncertainty. The removal of post-1990 trends in the tropospheric variables and SST from WRF-Chem's initial conditions (IC) and boundary conditions (BC, including the lateral and lower boundary conditions) resulted in a reduction of cyclone precipitation by about 51% during the 5 d of April 28-May 2. The removal of tropospheric warming shows approximately twice as strong an effect on Fani (39% reduction in precipitation) as that of SST warming (22% reduction). When aerosol's direct and indirect effects were removed from the simulations, i.e., no aerosol influence on radiation and cloud microphysics, Fani initially strengthened but later weakened, as measured by geopotential height and precipitation amounts. These results suggest that aerosol and its interaction with the atmosphere acted to mitigate the strengthening effect of anthropogenic warming on Fani, but was not strong enough to entirely counteract it. Although the ensemble of coarser simulations appears to overestimate Cyclone Fani in terms of precipitation, the direction of the effects is in agreement with that obtained from the 4 km simulations. Given the increasing anthropogenic aerosols in the BOB, future attribution studies using more sophisticated dynamical aerosol models on BOB tropical cyclones are urged.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

High-Resolution Comonomer Sequencing of Blocky Brominated Syndiotactic Polystyrene Copolymers Using 13C NMR Spectroscopy and Computer Simulations

This work demonstrates the first high-resolution comonomer sequencing of Blocky brominated syndiotactic polystyrene (sPS-co-sPS-Br) copolymers based on pentad assign- ments of the quaternary carbon region of the nuclear magnetic resonance spectrum. Copolymers containing p-bromostyrene (Br-Sty) units were prepared in matched sets using postpolymerization bromination methods carried out in the heterogeneous gel state (Blocky) and homogeneous solution state (Random). Quantitative information from the quaternary carbon spectra, heteronuclear multiple bond correlation spectroscopy, electronic structure calculations, and simulated statistically random copolymers was correlated to confirm the carbon resonance assignments for all 20 possible pentad comonomer sequences. Using the experimental pentad sequence prevalences, a computer code was developed to simulate chains with microstructures typical of each sample as a means to visually represent the copolymer blockiness with quantitative precision. Based on the microstructure and distribution of run lengths in these chains, the simulations revealed that the Blocky copolymers contain a high degree of blockiness. By comparing the run lengths in the simulated chains to the average number of styrene units in a crystalline segment of sPS (found by small-angle X-ray scattering), copolymer crystallizability was predicted. For the simulated Blocky B-21% (21 mol % Br-Sty) chain, the probability of randomly selecting a styrene unit in a crystallizable block was 25.8%, while that in the simulated Random R-18% was zero, in excellent agreement with the experimental crystallization behavior measured by differential scanning calorimetry. Additionally, these predictions confirmed that the simulated chains accurately represent the ensemble of chains in their respective copolymer samples. Furthermore, each simulated Blocky chain contained one or more long sPS blocks that paralleled the measured 38-40 styrene units spanning a crystalline segment within the sPS/CCl4 gel. This finding affirmed that the long sPS segments originated from the precise lamellar structure within the heterogeneous gel morphology (i.e., block length is correlated with lamellar thickness). Overall, the ability to tailor the copolymer microstructure through control of the semicrystalline gel morphology opens the door to synthesizing ordered copolymers by postpolymerization functionalization processes with unprecedented levels of compositional control.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dataset for manuscript "Equipartition and the temperature of maximum density of TIP4P/2005 water"

We simulate TIP4P/2005 water in the temperature range of 257 K to 318 K with time-steps 0.25, 0.50, 1.00, 2.00, and 4.00 fs. The density-temperature behavior obtained using 0.25 or 0.50 fs are in excellent agreement with each other but differ from those obtained using time-steps that have been shown earlier to lead to a breakdown of equipartition. The temperature of maximum density (TMD) is 277.15 K with time-step 0.25 or 0.50 fs, but is shifted to progressively lower values for longer time-steps, a trend that holds for different thermostat/barostat combinations. Enhancing the water-water dispersion interaction, as has been recommended for simulating disordered proteins in TIP4P/2005, degrades the description of the liquid-vapor phase envelope. We present a simple physically transparent reasoning to highlight the separation of the time-scales between translational and rotational motion. We also develop a metric, Chi, that we term the equipartition anomaly, to detect equipartition violations in simulations that include molecules that are treated as rigid objects. Calculating Chi is shown to be straightforward and sensitive to equipartition violations. A key takeaway from this study is that using sufficiently short time-steps (less than or equal to 0.5 fs) to preserve equipartition is essential for obtaining meaningful liquid water properties and for producing reliable simulation data, as correct-ensemble sampling is fundamental to ensure reproducibility across codes and simulation alogrithms. The included dataset provides the raw data used in the preparation of the graphs noted in the manuscript.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

CERESMIP: a climate modeling protocol to investigate recent trends in the Earth's Energy Imbalance

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has now produced over two decades of observed data on the Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) and has revealed substantive trends in both the reflected shortwave and outgoing longwave top-of-atmosphere radiation components. Available climate model simulations suggest that these trends are incompatible with purely internal variability, but that the full magnitude and breakdown of the trends are outside of the model ranges. Unfortunately, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) (CMIP6) protocol only uses observed forcings to 2014 (and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) projections thereafter), and furthermore, many of the ‘observed' drivers have been updated substantially since the CMIP6 inputs were defined. Most notably, the sea surface temperature (SST) estimates have been revised and now show up to 50% greater trends since 1979, particularly in the southern hemisphere. Additionally, estimates of short-lived aerosol and gas-phase emissions have been substantially updated. These revisions will likely have material impacts on the model-simulated EEI. We therefore propose a new, relatively low-cost, model intercomparison, CERESMIP, that would target the CERES period (2000-present), with updated forcings to at least the end of 2021. The focus will be on atmosphere-only simulations, using updated SST, forcings and emissions from 1990 to 2021. The key metrics of interest will be the EEI and atmospheric feedbacks, and so the analysis will benefit from output from satellite cloud observation simulators. The Tier 1 request would consist only of an ensemble of AMIP-style simulations, while the Tier 2 request would encompass uncertainties in the applied forcing, atmospheric composition, single and all-but-one forcing responses. We present some preliminary results and invite participation from a wide group of models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2023

CERESMIP: A Climate Modeling Protocol to Investigate Recent Trends in the Earth's Energy Imbalance

CMIP6↗

DOE OSTI2021

Visual HPC Workflows for the Analysis of System Dynamics Models

Visual analytics supported by high performance computing (HPC) accelerates and enhances the discovery, exploration, and analysis of causal patterns in complex system dynamics (SD) models. We present a suite of visualization-assisted ensemble-based techniques for hypothesis generation and testing, and for sensitivity analysis. By employing HPC to provide parallel, on-demand simulation of SD models, one can “steer” an ensemble of simulated scenarios in real time as one first formulates and then informally tests those hypotheses: this provides rapid feedback for analysts to refine their understanding of the causal relationships emergent from a model. Such understandings can be followed and augmented by rigorous application of statistical methods, namely global variance-based sensitivity analysis, Monte-Carlo filtering, adaptive regional sensitivity analysis, and self-organized maps: here timely computation relies on HPC, while effective presentation emphasizes high-dimensional multivariate data visualization. Immersive visualization in virtual 3D environments provides an excellent adjunct to the traditional 2D graphics typically used for SD models, as it generates an embodied understanding of model behavior and facilitates an active, collaborative critique of model structure and output. Finally, we summarize prospects for HPC-enabled visual analytics applied to SD modeling.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

RASPA3

RASPA3, a molecular simulation code for computing adsorption and diffusion in nanoporous materials and thermodynamic and transport properties of fluids. It implements force field based classical Monte Carlo/molecular dynamics in various ensembles. RASPA3 is rewritten from the ground up in C++23 with speed and code readability in mind. Transition-matrix Monte Carlo is added to compute the density of states and free energies. The Monte Carlo code for rigid molecules is based on quaternions, and the atomic positions needed in the energy evaluation are recreated from the center of mass position and quaternion orientation. The expanded ensemble methodology for fractional molecules, with a scaling parameter λ between 0 and 1, now also keeps track of analytic expressions of dU/dλ, allowing independent verification of the chemical potential using thermodynamic integration. The source code is freely available under the MIT license on GitHub.

Dubbeldam, David↗

NASA NTRS2017

Time-Varying Changes in the Simulated Structure of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation

A series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model are analyzed in order to assess changes in the Brewer-Dobson Circulation (BDC) over the past 55 years. When trends are computed over the past 55 years, the BDC accelerates throughout the stratosphere, consistent with previous modeling results. However, over the second half of the simulations (i.e., since the late 1980s), the model simulates structural changes in the BDC as the temporal evolution of the BDC varies between regions in the stratosphere. In the mid-stratosphere in the midlatitude Northern Hemisphere, the BDC does not accelerate in the ensemble mean of our simulations despite increases in greenhouse gas concentrations and warming sea surface temperatures, and it even decelerates in one ensemble member. This deceleration is reminiscent of changes inferred from satellite instruments and in situ measurements. In contrast, the BDC in the lower stratosphere continues to accelerate. The main forcing agents for the recent slowdown in the mid-stratosphere appear to be declining ozone-depleting substance (ODS) concentrations and the timing of volcanic eruptions. Changes in both mean age of air and the tropical upwelling of the residual circulation indicate a lack of recent acceleration. We therefore clarify that the statement that is often made that climate models simulate a decreasing age throughout the stratosphere only applies over long time periods and is not necessarily the case for the past 25 years, when most tracer measurements were taken.

stratospheric ozone↗

DOE OSTI2023

Pyrocumulonimbus Events Over British Columbia in 2017: An Ensemble Model Study of Parameter Sensitivities and Climate Impacts of Wildfire Smoke in the Stratosphere

Abstract The Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) events over British Columbia in 2017 were observed in the lower stratosphere for about 8–10 months after the smoke injections. Several previous studies used global climate models to investigate the physical parameters for the 2017 pyroCb events, but the conclusions show strong model dependency. In this study, we use the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and complete an ensemble of runs exploring three injection parameters: smoke aerosol mass, the percentage of black carbon within the smoke aerosols, and plume injection height. Additionally, we consider the heterogeneous reaction of ozone and primary organic matter. According to the satellite daily observed aerosol optical depth (AOD), we find that the best ensemble member is the simulation with 0.4 Tg of smoke, 3% of which is black carbon, a 13.5 km smoke injection height, and a 10 −5 probability factor of the heterogeneous reaction. Besides AOD, we examine the ensemble score based on the metrics used in previous studies: the metrics of the extinction coefficient at 18 km altitude and the maximum plume height. The conclusion of the best estimate of the injection parameters for 2017 pyroCb events shows strong not only model but also evaluation metric dependency. We use the Random Forest machine learning technique to quantify the relative importance of each parameter in accurately simulating the 2017 pyroCb events and find that the injection height is the most critical feature, no matter which metric is used to score the ensemble members.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2020

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Large-scale Climate Features and Climate Sensitivity

The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ∼400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 ∘C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 ∘C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 ∘C over land and 2.8 ∘C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60∘ N and 60∘ S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6–4.8 ∘C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports.

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project↗

NASA NTRS2015

"Intelligent Ensemble" Projections of Precipitation and Surface Radiation in Support of Agricultural Climate Change Adaptation

Earth's climate is changing and will continue to change into the foreseeable future. Expected changes in the climatological distribution of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation will significantly impact agriculture. Adaptation strategies are, therefore, required to reduce the agricultural impacts of climate change. Climate change projections of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation distributions are necessary input for adaption planning studies. These projections are conventionally constructed from an ensemble of climate model simulations (e.g., the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5)) as an equal weighted average, one model one vote. Each climate model, however, represents the array of climate-relevant physical processes with varying degrees of fidelity influencing the projection of individual climate variables differently. Presented here is a new approach, termed the "Intelligent Ensemble, that constructs climate variable projections by weighting each model according to its ability to represent key physical processes, e.g., precipitation probability distribution. This approach provides added value over the equal weighted average method. Physical process metrics applied in the "Intelligent Ensemble" method are created using a combination of NASA and NOAA satellite and surface-based cloud, radiation, temperature, and precipitation data sets. The "Intelligent Ensemble" method is applied to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 anthropogenic climate forcing simulations within the CMIP5 archive to develop a set of climate change scenarios for precipitation, temperature, and surface solar radiation in each USDA Farm Resource Region for use in climate change adaptation studies.

Taylor, Patrick C.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Interpreting the electron temperature inferred from x-ray continuum emission for direct-drive inertial confinement fusion implosions on OMEGA

In this paper, we present a theoretical framework for interpreting the hot-spot electron temperature ($T_e$) inferred from hard (10- to 20-keV) x-ray continuum emission for inertial confinement fusion implosions on OMEGA. We first show that the inferred $T_e$ represents the emission-weighted, harmonic mean of the hot-spot $T_e$ distribution, both spatially and temporally. A scheme is then provided for selecting a photon energy of which the emission weighting approximates neutron weighting. Simulations are then used to quantify the predicted relationship between the inferred T e , neutron-weighted T i , and implosion performance on OMEGA. In an ensemble of 1-D simulations, it was observed that hot-spot thermal nonequilibrium precluded a sufficiently unique mapping between the inferred $T_e$ and neutron-weighted T i . In 3-D simulations with low-harmonic-mode perturbations (i.e., laser beam power imbalance, target offset, and beam port geometry departures from spherical symmetry) and laser imprint (1 max = 200).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗