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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 667 records · Page 37
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

A Fast Monte Carlo Method for Model-Based Prognostics Based on Stochastic Calculus

This work proposes a fast Monte Carlo method to solve differential equations utilized in model-based prognostics. The methodology is derived from the theory of stochastic calculus, and the goal of such a method is to speed up the estimation of the probability density functions describing the independent variable evolution over time. In the prognostic scenarios presented in this paper, the stochastic differential equations describe variables directly or indirectly related to the degradation of a monitored system. The method allows the estimation of the probability density functions by solving the deterministic equation and approximating the stochastic integrals using samples of the model noise. By so doing, the prognostic problem is solved without the Monte Carlo simulation based on Euler's forward method, which is typically the most time consuming task of the prediction stage. Three different prognostic scenarios are presented as proof of concept: (i) life prediction of electrolytic capacitors, (ii) remaining time to discharge of Lithium-ion batteries, and (iii) prognostic of cracked structures under fatigue loading. The paper shows how the method produces probability density functions that are statistically indistinguishable from the distributions estimated with Euler's forward Monte Carlo simulation. However, the proposed solution is orders of magnitude faster when computing the time-to-failure distribution of the monitored system. The approach may enable complex real-time prognostics and health management solutions with limited computing power.

Corbetta, M.↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Fast Monte Carlo Method for Model-Based Prognostics Based on Stochastic Calculus

This work proposes a fast Monte Carlo method to solve differential equations utilized in model-based prognostics. The methodology is derived from the theory of stochastic calculus, and the goal of such a method is to speed up the estimation of the probability density functions describing the independent variable evolution over time. In the prognostic scenarios presented in this paper, the stochastic differential equations describe variables directly or indirectly related to the degradation of a monitored system. The method allows the estimation of the probability density functions by solving the deterministic equation and approximating the stochastic integrals using samples of the model noise. By so doing, the prognostic problem is solved without the Monte Carlo simulation based on Euler's forward method, which is typically the most time consuming task of the prediction stage. Three different prognostic scenarios are presented as proof of concept: (i) life prediction of electrolytic capacitors, (ii) remaining time to discharge of Lithium-ion batteries, and (iii) prognostic of cracked structures under fatigue loading. The paper shows how the method produces probability density functions that are statistically indistinguishable from the distributions estimated with Euler's forward Monte Carlo simulation. However, the proposed solution is orders of magnitude faster when computing the time-to-failure distribution of the monitored system. The approach may enable complex real-time prognostics and health management solutions with limited computing power.

stochastic calculus↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accurate shear estimation with fourth-order moments

ABSTRACT As imaging surveys progress in exploring the large-scale structure of the Universe through the use of weak gravitational lensing, achieving sub-per cent accuracy in estimating shape distortions caused by lensing, or shear, is imperative for precision cosmology. In this paper, we extend the Fourier power function shapelets (FPFS) shear estimator using fourth-order shapelet moments and combine it with the original second-order shear estimator to reduce galaxy shape noise. We calibrate this novel shear estimator analytically to a sub-per cent level-accuracy using the AnaCal framework. This higher order shear estimator is tested with realistic image simulations, and after analytical correction for the detection/selection bias and noise bias, the multiplicative shear bias $|m|$ is below $3\times 10^{-3}$ (99.7 per cent confidence interval) for both isolated and blended galaxies. Once combined with the second-order FPFS shear estimator, the shape noise is reduced by $\sim 35~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ for isolated galaxies in simulations with Hyper Suprime-Cam and Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time observational conditions. However, for blended galaxies, the effective number density does not significantly improve with the combination of the two estimators. Based on these results, we recommend exploration of how this framework can further reduce the systematic uncertainties in shear due to point spread function leakage and modelling error, and potentially provide improved precision in shear inference in high-resolution space-based images.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2019

Experimentally-Derived Phase Function Approximations in Support of the Orbital Debris Program Office

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has used various optical assets to acquire photometric data of Earth-orbiting objects to define the orbital debris environment. To better characterize and model optical data acquired from ground-based telescopes, the Optical Measurements Center (OMC) at NASA Johnson Space Center emulates illumination conditions seen in space by using equipment and techniques that parallel telescopic observations and source-target-sensor orientations. One of the OMC goals is to improve the size calculation used for optical data by developing an optical-based Size Estimation Model. The current size estimation requires applying a Lambertian phase function, a set albedo value, and range to the observed magnitude. The first step to improving the sampled brightness of laboratory targets is to remove aspect-angle dependencies. Then, the volume of possible object viewing angles is sampled at 21 combinations of azimuth and elevation angles for each solar phase angle. Finally, the acquired images are input into an image processing program that generates approximations for the object’s Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) and phase function. The BRDF is a radiometric concept that identifies an object’s material composition by matching a BRDF approximated with photometric data collected by ground-based telescopes with a BRDF generated experimentally from a known object in the laboratory. This paper presents the initial BRDF and phase function approximations for various fragments/targets acquired in the OMC and how the findings will be incorporated into ODPO models. A Lambertian sphere is used as a baseline for initial size estimation calculations and phase function comparisons. Spacecraft materials and fragments from hypervelocity laboratory impact tests are also presented to compare against the current assumed Lambertian phase function used for size estimates. This paper presents the preliminary phase function analysis and plan forward to utilize a laboratory-based phase function to improve the current optical size estimates using BRDF measurements for a large volume of targets composed of various shapes, sizes, and materials.

Hostetler, J.↗
DOE OSTI2017

A complete non-perturbative renormalization prescription for quasi-PDFs

In this work we present, for the first time, the non-perturbative renormalization for the unpolarized, helicity and transversity quasi-PDFs, in an RI' scheme. The proposed prescription addresses simultaneously all aspects of renormalization: logarithmic divergences, finite renormalization as well as the linear divergence which is present in the matrix elements of fermion operators with Wilson lines. Furthermore, for the case of the unpolarized quasi-PDF, we describe how to eliminate the unwanted mixing with the twist-3 scalar operator. We utilize perturbation theory for the one-loop conversion factor that brings the renormalization functions to the $\overline{MS}$-scheme at a scale of 2 GeV. We also explain how to improve the estimates on the renormalization functions by eliminating lattice artifacts. The latter can be computed in one-loop perturbation theory and to all orders in the lattice spacing. We apply the methodology for the renormalization to an ensemble of twisted mass fermions with $N_f = 2+1+1$ dynamical quarks, and a pion mass of around 375 MeV.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1988

Approximation theory for LQG (Linear-Quadratic-Gaussian) optimal control of flexible structures

An approximation theory is presented for the LQG (Linear-Quadratic-Gaussian) optimal control problem for flexible structures whose distributed models have bounded input and output operators. The main purpose of the theory is to guide the design of finite dimensional compensators that approximate closely the optimal compensator. The optimal LQG problem separates into an optimal linear-quadratic regulator problem and an optimal state estimation problem. The solution of the former problem lies in the solution to an infinite dimensional Riccati operator equation. The approximation scheme approximates the infinite dimensional LQG problem with a sequence of finite dimensional LQG problems defined for a sequence of finite dimensional, usually finite element or modal, approximations of the distributed model of the structure. Two Riccati matrix equations determine the solution to each approximating problem. The finite dimensional equations for numerical approximation are developed, including formulas for converting matrix control and estimator gains to their functional representation to allow comparison of gains based on different orders of approximation. Convergence of the approximating control and estimator gains and of the corresponding finite dimensional compensators is studied. Also, convergence and stability of the closed-loop systems produced with the finite dimensional compensators are discussed. The convergence theory is based on the convergence of the solutions of the finite dimensional Riccati equations to the solutions of the infinite dimensional Riccati equations. A numerical example with a flexible beam, a rotating rigid body, and a lumped mass is given.

Gibson, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Model error estimation for distributed systems described by elliptic equations

A function space approach is used to develop a theory for estimation of the errors inherent in an elliptic partial differential equation model for a distributed parameter system. By establishing knowledge of the inevitable deficiencies in the model, the error estimates provide a foundation for updating the model. The function space solution leads to a specification of a method for computation of the model error estimates and development of model error analysis techniques for comparison between actual and estimated errors. The paper summarizes the model error estimation approach as well as an application arising in the area of modeling for static shape determination of large flexible systems.

Rodriguez, G.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Computing partition functions in the one-clean-qubit model

We present a method to approximate partition functions of quantum systems using mixed-state quantum computation. For positive-semidefinite Hamiltonians, our method has an expected running-time that is almost linear in [M/( ε rel Z )] 2 , where M is the dimension of the quantum system, Z is the partition function, and ε rel is the relative precision. It is based on approximations of the exponential operator as linear combinations of certain operators related to block-encoding of Hamiltonians or Hamiltonian evolutions. The trace of each operator is estimated using a standard algorithm in the one-clean-qubit model. For large values of Z , our method may run faster than exact classical methods, whose complexities are polynomial in M . We also prove that a version of the partition function estimation problem within additive error is complete for the so-called DQC1 complexity class, suggesting that our method provides a superpolynomial speedup for certain parameter values. Overall, to attain a desired relative precision, we develop a classical procedure based on a sequence of approximations within predetermined additive errors that may be of independent interest.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Enhancing Model Predictability for a Scramjet Using Probabilistic Learning on Manifolds

In this study, the computational burden of a large-eddy simulation for reactive flows is exacerbated in the presence of uncertainty in flow conditions or kinetic variables. A comprehensive statistical analysis, with a sufficiently large number of samples, remains elusive. Statistical learning is an approach that allows for extracting more information using fewer samples. Such procedures, if successful, will greatly enhance the predictability of models in the sense of improving exploration and characterization of uncertainty due to model error and input dependencies, all while being constrained by the size of the associated statistical samples. In this paper, it is shown how a recently developed procedure for probabilistic learning on manifolds can serve to improve the predictability in a probabilistic framework of a scramjet simulation. The estimates of the probability density functions of the quantities of interest are improved together with estimates of the statistics of their maxima. Lastly, it is also demonstrated how the improved statistical model adds critical insight to the performance of the model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Probabilistic Mass Estimation Algorithm for a Novel 7- Channel Capacitive Sample Verification Sensor

A document describes an algorithm created to estimate the mass placed on a sample verification sensor (SVS) designed for lunar or planetary robotic sample return missions. A novel SVS measures the capacitance between a rigid bottom plate and an elastic top membrane in seven locations. As additional sample material (soil and/or small rocks) is placed on the top membrane, the deformation of the membrane increases the capacitance. The mass estimation algorithm addresses both the calibration of each SVS channel, and also addresses how to combine the capacitances read from each of the seven channels into a single mass estimate. The probabilistic approach combines the channels according to the variance observed during the training phase, and provides not only the mass estimate, but also a value for the certainty of the estimate. SVS capacitance data is collected for known masses under a wide variety of possible loading scenarios, though in all cases, the distribution of sample within the canister is expected to be approximately uniform. A capacitance-vs-mass curve is fitted to this data, and is subsequently used to determine the mass estimate for the single channel s capacitance reading during the measurement phase. This results in seven different mass estimates, one for each SVS channel. Moreover, the variance of the calibration data is used to place a Gaussian probability distribution function (pdf) around this mass estimate. To blend these seven estimates, the seven pdfs are combined into a single Gaussian distribution function, providing the final mean and variance of the estimate. This blending technique essentially takes the final estimate as an average of the estimates of the seven channels, weighted by the inverse of the channel s variance.

Wolf, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2019

Thermal Property Estimation of Fibrous Insulation: Heat Transfer Modeling and the Continuous Genetic Algorithm

Thermal properties of high-temperature fibrous insulation materials were estimated from transient thermal tests using an inverse heat transfer technique. Transient temperature data from an experimental set up was collected and a simple, one-dimensional numerical model was constructed to replicate the temperatures within the test assembly. The Continuous Genetic Algorithm optimization technique in conjunction with a numerical thermal model and transient test data was used to estimate coefficients of a functional representation of the thermal property. The thermal properties, i.e., thermal conductivity and specific heat, of an alumina insulation felt were estimated over the temperature range of 300 K to 1700 K at various constant static pressures in nitrogen gas and compared with published data. The resulting thermal property estimates were within 10% of published values over the entire temperature range at various pressures. The methodology, application, and results are presented.

Frye, Elora↗
DOE OSTI2025

Derivative-free stochastic optimization via adaptive sampling strategies

In this paper, we present a novel derivative-free framework for solving unconstrained stochastic optimization problems. Many problems in fields ranging from simulation optimization to reinforcement learning to quantum computing involve settings where only stochastic function values are obtained via a zeroth-order oracle, which has no available gradient information and necessitates the usage of derivative-free optimization methodologies. Our approach includes estimating gradients using stochastic function evaluations and integrating adaptive sampling techniques to control the accuracy in these stochastic approximations. Our framework encapsulates several gradient estimation techniques, including standard finite-difference, Gaussian smoothing, sphere smoothing, randomized coordinate finite-difference, and randomized subspace finite-difference methods. We provide theoretical convergence guarantees for our framework and analyze the worst-case iteration and sample complexities associated with each gradient estimation method. Finally, we demonstrate the empirical performance of the methods on logistic regression and nonlinear least squares problems.

Adaptive sampling↗
NASA NTRS1978

Optimal estimation for discrete time jump processes

Optimum estimates of nonobservable random variables or random processes which influence the rate functions of a discrete time jump process (DTJP) are derived. The approach used is based on the a posteriori probability of a nonobservable event expressed in terms of the a priori probability of that event and of the sample function probability of the DTJP. Thus a general representation is obtained for optimum estimates, and recursive equations are derived for minimum mean-squared error (MMSE) estimates. In general, MMSE estimates are nonlinear functions of the observations. The problem is considered of estimating the rate of a DTJP when the rate is a random variable with a beta probability density function and the jump amplitudes are binomially distributed. It is shown that the MMSE estimates are linear. The class of beta density functions is rather rich and explains why there are insignificant differences between optimum unconstrained and linear MMSE estimates in a variety of problems.

Vaca, M. V.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Lyapunov-Based Iterative Learning of Regions of Attraction for Autonomous Systems

This paper proposes a novel algorithm for estimating the region of attraction of equilibrium points for nonlinear discrete-time autonomous systems. The method iteratively expands an initial estimate of the region of attraction by constructing unions of sublevel sets of learned functions parametrized as neural networks. Unlike conventional techniques that rely on a single global Lyapunov function, the proposed approach provides a collection of local Lyapunov-like functions, enabling richer representations and potentially larger region of attraction estimates. These functions are trained using sampled state-space data, and their Lipschitz continuity ensures that desirable properties extend beyond the training samples. The devised strategy is tested via numerical simulations, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Lyapunov-Based Iterative Learning of the Region of Attraction for Autonomous Systems

This presentation introduces a novel algorithm for estimating the region of attraction of equilibrium points for nonlinear discrete-time autonomous systems. The method iteratively expands an initial estimate of the region of attraction by constructing unions of sublevel sets of learned functions parametrized as neural networks. Unlike conventional techniques that rely on a single global Lyapunov function, the proposed approach provides a collection of local Lyapunov-like functions, enabling richer representations and potentially larger region of attraction estimates. These functions are trained using sampled state-space data, and their Lipschitz continuity ensures that desirable properties extend beyond the training samples. The devised strategy is tested via numerical simulations, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

On the Asymptotic Behavior of the Kernel Function in the Generalized Langevin Equation: A One-Dimensional Lattice Model

We present some estimates for the memory kernel function in the generalized Langevin equation, derived using the Mori–Zwanzig formalism from a one-dimensional lattice model, in which the particles interactions are through nearest and second nearest neighbors. The kernel function can be explicitly expressed in a matrix form. The analysis focuses on the decay properties, both spatially and temporally, revealing a power-law behavior in both cases. The dependence on the level of coarse-graining is also studied.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1978

Engineering aspects of geothermal development with emphasis on the Imperial Valley of California

This review was prepared in support of a geothermal planning activity of the County of Imperial. Engineering features of potential geothermal development are outlined. Acreage requirements for drilling and powerplants are estimated, as are the costs for wells, fluid transmission pipes, and generating stations. Rough scaling relationships are developed for cost factors as a function of reservoir temperature. Estimates are made for cooling water requirements, and possible sources of cooling water are discussed. Availability and suitability of agricultural wastewater for cooling are emphasized. The utility of geothermal resources for fresh water production in the Imperial Valley is considered.

Goldsmith, M.↗