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NASA NTRS2024

Quantification of Uncertainty and Risk Sensitivity for Safety of Emerging Operations

The growing need to develop and deploy small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAVs) for various applications in the airspace necessitates reliable tools to accurately predict the flight trajectories of the sUAVs. The knowledge of the predicted trajectories help decision makers anticipate potential conflict, assess the risk, and take appropriate risk mitigation actions. In addition, uncertainties in vehicle models, weather, and controller action further highlights the need for reliable prediction tools. In this project, the application of mixed sparse grid-based quadrature and generalized polynomial chaos(gPC) expansion method for uncertainty quantification and collision assessment in air traffic consisting of fixed-wing small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAV) was studied. From the results obtained, it can be concluded that this provides a reliable framework to carry out quantitative conflict assessment in an unmanned air traffic, which when employed, can improve the functionalities of the unmanned traffic management system. It was observed that the results from the gPC expansion framework developed in the project can be utilized to conduct rapid probabilistic collision assessment for near real-time unmanned traffic management in the airspace. From the vehicle models, position updates, and wind-field data, a priori gPC based 3-σcon-fidence ellipses can provide estimates of potential conflict at some future instants. The computational costs scaled linearly when the uncertain inputs were fewer. Further, the largest allowable distribution of para-metric uncertainties that leads to the smallest risk of collision in traffic of small unmanned aerial vehicles could be calculated. The time of closest approach between two sUAVs can be established paving way for development of proactive mitigation strategies. The separation between the sUAVs was found to be most significantly affected by uncertainties in the maximum available thrusts, zero-lift drag coefficients, and wing planform areas of the sUAVs. The study of uncertain wind-fields indicated that a heterogeneous traffic mix resulted in an increased probability of conflict. Increased measurement update rate reduced the uncertain-ties in the trajectories of the vehicles, further reducing the probability of conflict but rapid updates of all vehicles in the airspace poses a stringent communication limitation. The gPC framework also provided the means to analyze vehicle impact (crash region) due to loss of control resulting from actuator failure in sUAS traffic, essentially to predict impact and crash zones for representative vehicles. The predicted regions when compared with non-participant density, provides a means to develop an early mitigation strategy, should the sUAV detect an imminent actuator failure.

Rajnish Bhusal↗

DOE OSTI2025

Graph-Learning-Assisted State and Event Tracking for Solar-Penetrated Power Grids with Heterogeneous Data Sources

Unlike transmission systems, distribution systems do not typically contain sufficient metering to enable real-time state estimation. The lack of sufficient real-time measurements prohibits accurate and timely monitoring of the state of distribution systems. As a result, control and optimal operation of distribution systems, especially those containing large numbers of renewable generation units are not possible without proper data and information about the current state of the system. The main motivation of this project is to address this shortcoming by developing an approach which provides “predicted” real-time measurements so that they can be used to execute a distribution system state estimator. Thus, the objective of the project is to make the distribution systems fully observable, such that the hosting capacity for solar generation can be accurately estimated, and unnecessary solar curtailments can be avoided. In order to accomplish this goal, the project investigated the use of a grid-model-informed machine learning (ML) tool which integrates heterogeneous data streams obtained from AMI meters, SCADA as well as PMU measurements and created synchronous measurement snapshots for the state estimator (SE); and developed a hybrid robust SE which provides not only accurate state estimates but also real-time feedback for the ML model refinement.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1994

The global distribution of ozone destruction rates obtained from 13 years of Nimbus/TOMS data (1979-1991)

Long-term ozone trends (percentage change) have been computed from 13 years of Nimbus/TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) data as a function of latitude, longitude, and month for the period January 1, 1979 to December 31, 1991. In both hemispheres, the ozone column content has decreased at latitudes above 30 deg by amounts that are larger than predicted by homogeneous chemistry models for the 13-year time period. The largest rates of ozone decrease occur in the Southern Hemisphere during winter and spring, with recovery during the summer and autumn. The large winter ozone loss rates are consistent with observed low stratospheric temperatures, ice-cloud formation, and heterogeneous chemistry at middle and high latitudes. There are similar, but smaller changes observed in the Northern Hemisphere. At midlatitudes, (40 deg N to 50 deg N) there are increased zonal average ozone depletion rates that correspond to 5 geographically localized regions of increased ozone depletion rates. Only the equatorial band between plus or minus 20 deg shows little or no long-term ozone change since January, 1979. The long-term winter ozone depletion rate data for both hemispheres suggests that heterogeneous chemistry processes may operate over a wide range of latitudes during half of the year.

Herman, Jay R.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Control of a heterogeneous two-server exponential queueing system

A dynamic control policy known as 'threshold queueing' is defined for scheduling customers from a Poisson source on a set of two exponential servers with dissimilar service rates. The slower server is invoked in response to instantaneous system loading as measured by the length of the queue of waiting customers. In a threshold queueing policy, a specific queue length is identified as a 'threshold,' beyond which the slower server is invoked. The slower server remains busy until it completes service on a customer and the queue length is less than its invocation threshold. Markov chain analysis is employed to analyze the performance of the threshold queueing policy and to develop optimality criteria. It is shown that probabilistic control is suboptimal to minimize the mean number of customers in the system. An approximation to the optimum policy is analyzed which is computationally simple and suffices for most operational applications.

Larsen, R. L.↗

DOE OSTI2026

iDDS: intelligent distributed dispatch and scheduling for workflow orchestration

The intelligent distributed dispatch and scheduling (iDDS) service is a versatile workflow orchestration system designed for large-scale, distributed scientific computing. iDDS extends traditional workload and data management by integrating data-aware execution, conditional logic, and programmable workflows, enabling automation of complex and dynamic processing pipelines. Originally developed for the ATLAS experiment at the large hadron collider, iDDS has evolved into an experiment-agnostic platform that supports both template-driven workflows and a Function-as-a-Task model for Python-based orchestration. This paper presents the architecture and core components of iDDS, highlighting its scalability, modular message-driven design, and integration with systems such as PanDA and Rucio. We demonstrate its versatility through real-world use cases: fine-grained tape resource optimization for ATLAS, orchestration of large Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) workflows for the Rubin Observatory, distributed hyperparameter optimization for machine learning applications, active learning for physics analyses, and AI-assisted detector design at the electron–ion collider. By unifying workload scheduling, data movement, and adaptive decision-making, iDDS reduces operational overhead and enables reproducible, high-throughput workflows across heterogeneous infrastructures. We conclude with current challenges and future directions, including interactive, cloud-native, and serverless workflow support.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2005

Role of Probabilistic Micromechanics Modeling in Establishing Design Allowables in Composites

One of the major challenges in designing with any new material, and particularly with advanced composite materials, is the fidelity of material design allowables. In the case of composite materials, the concern arises from the inherent nature of these materials, i.e., their heterogeneous make-up and the various factors that affect their properties in a specific design environment. Composites have various scales - micro, macro, laminate and structural, as well as numerous other fabrication related parameters. Many advanced composites in aerospace applications involve complex two- and three-dimensional fiber architectures and requires high-temperature processing. Since there are uncertainties associated with each of these, the observed behavior of composite materials shows scatter. Evaluating the effect of each of these variables on the observed scatter in composite properties solely by teSting is cost and time prohibitive. One alternative is to evaluate these effects by computational simulation. The authors have developed probabilistic composite micromechanics techniques by combining woven composite micromechanics and Fast Probability Integration (FPI) techniques to address these issues. In this paper these techniques will be described and demonstrated through selected examples. Results in the form of cumulative distribution functions (CDF) of the composite properties of a MI (melt-infiltrated) SiC/SiC (silicon carbide fiber in a silicon carbide matrix) Composite will be presented. A CDF is a relationship defined by the value of the property (the response variable) with respect to the cumulative probability of occurrence. Furthermore, input variables causing scatter are identified and ranked based upon their sensitivity magnitude. Sensitivity information is very valuable in quality control. How these results can be utilized to develop design allowables so that these materials may be used by structural analysts/designers will also be discussed.

Mital, Subodh K.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Performance Portability Evaluation of Fluid-Structure Interaction Simulations on Heterogeneous Platforms

The rapid proliferation of heterogeneous programming languages and multi-vendor hardware has underscored the critical need to evaluate the performance portability of scientific applications. In this work, we present the systematic porting and optimization of a massively parallel fluid-structure interaction code across multiple heterogeneous programming frameworks for deployment on leadership-class supercomputers from major vendors. Our analysis focuses on at-scale performance for simulations involving hundreds of millions of deformable cells, executed on a combination of CPUs and GPUs spanning thousands of nodes on exascale machines. We benchmark the performance of each implementation, highlighting the trade-offs inherent in adopting diverse programming models. Key insights regarding the portability of CUDA on multi-vendor platforms, the superior multi-core CPU performance from SYCL, and architectural considerations on performance optimization are distilled from our experience, offering guidance to other users of high performance computing based on our findings.

Martin, Aristotle [Duke University]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Heterogeneous Multi-Domain Dataset Synthesis to Facilitate Privacy and Risk Assessments in Smart City IoT

The emergence of the Smart Cities paradigm and the rapid expansion and integration of Internet of Things (IoT) technologies within this context have created unprecedented opportunities for high-resolution behavioral analytics, urban optimization, and context-aware services. However, this same proliferation intensifies privacy risks, particularly those arising from cross-modal data linkage across heterogeneous sensing platforms. To address these challenges, this paper introduces a comprehensive, statistically grounded framework for generating synthetic, multimodal IoT datasets tailored to Smart City research. The framework produces behaviorally plausible synthetic data suitable for preliminary privacy risk assessment and as a benchmark for future re-identification studies, as well as for evaluating algorithms in mobility modeling, urban informatics, and privacy-enhancing technologies. As part of our approach, we formalize probabilistic methods for synthesizing three heterogeneous and operationally relevant data streams—cellular mobility traces, payment terminal transaction logs, and Smart Retail nutrition records—capturing the behaviors of a large number of synthetically generated urban residents over a 12-week period. The framework integrates spatially explicit merchant selection using K-Dimensional (KD)-tree nearest-neighbor algorithms, temporally correlated anchor-based mobility simulation reflective of daily urban rhythms, and dietary-constraint filtering to preserve ecological validity in consumption patterns. In total, the system generates approximately 116 million mobility pings, 5.4 million transactions, and 1.9 million itemized purchases, yielding a reproducible benchmark for evaluating multimodal analytics, privacy-preserving computation, and secure IoT data-sharing protocols. To show the validity of this dataset, the underlying distributions of these residents were successfully validated against reported distributions in published research. We present preliminary uniqueness and cross-modal linkage indicators; comprehensive re-identification benchmarking against specific attack algorithms is planned as future work. This framework can be easily adapted to various scenarios of interest in Smart Cities and other IoT applications. By aligning methodological rigor with the operational needs of Smart City ecosystems, this work fills critical gaps in synthetic data generation for privacy-sensitive domains, including intelligent transportation systems, urban health informatics, and next-generation digital commerce infrastructures.

IoT↗

NASA NTRS1993

Chemical kinetic studies of atmospheric reactions using tunable diode laser spectroscopy

IR absorption using tunable diode laser spectroscopy provides a sensitive and quantitative detection method for laboratory kinetic studies of atmospheric trace gases. Improvements in multipass cell design, real time signal processing, and computer controlled data acquisition and analysis have extended the applicability of the technique. We have developed several optical systems using off-axis resonator mirror designs which maximize path length while minimizing both the sample volume and the interference fringes inherent in conventional 'White' cells. Computerized signal processing using rapid scan (300 kHz), sweep integration with 100 percent duty cycle allows substantial noise reduction while retaining the advantages of using direct absorption for absolute absorbance measurements and simultaneous detection of multiple species. Peak heights and areas are determined by curve fitting using nonlinear least square methods. We have applied these techniques to measurements of: (1) heterogeneous uptake chemistry of atmospheric trace gases (HCl, H2O2, and N2O5) on aqueous and sulfuric acid droplets; (2) vapor pressure measurements of nitric acid and water over prototypical stratospheric aerosol (nitric acid trihydrate) surfaces; and (3) discharge flow tube kinetic studies of the HO2 radical using isotopic labeling for product channel and mechanistic analysis. Results from each of these areas demonstrate the versatility of TDL absorption spectroscopy for atmospheric chemistry applications.

Worsnop, Douglas R.↗

NASA NTRS2017

On the Development and Application of High Data Rate Architecture (HiDRA) in Future Space Networks

Historically, space missions have been severely constrained by their ability to downlink the data they have collected. These constraints are a result of relatively low link rates on the spacecraft as well as limitations on the time during which data can be sent. As part of a coherent strategy to address existing limitations and get more data to the ground more quickly, the Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) program has been developing an architecture for a future solar system Internet. The High Data Rate Architecture (HiDRA) project is designed to fit into such a future SCaN network. HiDRA's goal is to describe a general packet-based networking capability which can be used to provide assets with efficient networking capabilities while simultaneously reducing the capital costs and operational costs of developing and flying future space systems.Along these lines, this paper begins by reviewing various characteristics of modern satellite design as well as relevant characteristics of emerging technologies (such as free-space optical links capable of working at 100+ Gbps). Next, the paper describes HiDRA's design, and how the system is able to both integrate and support the operation of not only today's high-rate systems, but also the high-rate systems likely to be found in the future. This section also explores both existing and future networking technologies, such as Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN) protocol (RFC4838 citeRFC:1, RFC5050citeRFC:2), and explains how HiDRA supports them. Additionally, this section explores how HiDRA is used for scheduling data movement through both proactive and reactive link management. After this, the paper moves on to explore a reference implementation of HiDRA. This implementation is currently being realized based on a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) memory and interface controller that is itself controlled by a local computer running DTN software. Next, this paper explores HiDRA's natural evolution, which includes an integration path for software-defined networking (SDN) switches. This section also describes considerations for both near-Earth and deep-space instantiations of HiDRA, describing how differences in latencies between the environments will necessarily influence how the system is configured and the networks operate. Finally, this paper describes future work. This section includes a description of a potential ISS implementation which will allow rapid advancement through the technology readiness levels (TRL). This section also explores work being done to support HiDRA's successful implementation and operation in a heterogeneous network: such a network could include communications equipment spanning many vintages and capabilities, and one significant aspect of HiDRA's future development involves balancing compatibility with capability.

DTN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Image-Based Failure Assessment of Li-Ion Batteries

In energy storage materials, strong electrochemical-mechanical coupling and highly anisotropic material properties contribute to the formation and propagation of micro-cracking during charge/discharge cycling, resulting in reduced performance and service life. In this work, a digital twin is created to investigate the performance of a heterogeneous Li-ion battery cathode and simulate degradation accumulation. Pixel-based model construction is used to represent the complex material geometries from microstructural images supplied by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Because of the expected large deformation and crack opening, the reproducing kernel particle method (RKPM), a meshfree method with discretization at the image pixels, is used to approximate the field variables: electrostatic potential, concentration, and displacement. An interface modified reproducing kernel (IM-RK) is constructed by scaling a smooth kernel function with an interface-distance function to achieve strategic discontinuity types (i.e. weak discontinuities for strain discontinuities and strong discontinuities for cracks) and alleviate Gibbs oscillations near these transition zones. Applications to the heterogeneous microstructures of Li-ion battery cathodes will be presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods. IM-RK is additionally used to inform how crack evolution in turn affects the coupled electro-chemo-mechanical behavior of the Li-ion battery cathode.

image-based modeling↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling High Current Pulsed Discharge in AA Battery Cathodes: The Effect of Localized Charging during Rest

During high current operation, substantial heterogeneity develops within battery cathodes, particularly when their thickness is large. Heterogeneity relaxation during subsequent rest is important for understanding battery performance under pulsed conditions. Localized charge balancing phenomena within batteries at zero net current are not well understood and merit investigation. In this work, the heterogeneity within cathodes of commercial alkaline Zn–MnO 2 batteries is measured during discharge and monitored during rest using energy dispersive X-ray diffraction (EDXRD). Significant gradients in protonation form during discharge and partially relax under rest. It is demonstrated that the proton gradient relaxation is through local redox activity at zero net current, where local (de)protonation works to redistribute charge across the cathode thickness. To support this redox-based relaxation, a fundamental kinetic study on prismatic MnO 2 cathodes is conducted to determine an appropriate model to describe both discharge and charge kinetics of MnO 2 . These kinetics are incorporated into a computational model to simulate the proton gradient formation and partial relaxation under identical discharge conditions as the operando EDXRD experiments. Model and experimental data are found to be in excellent agreement, correctly predicting localized charge balancing at rest.

Batteries↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tardigrade-examples V0.1.0

Tardigrade-examples is a repository of computational workflows that exercise the Tardigrade software package. The Tardigrade software package is an implementation of Eringen’s micromorphic continuum theory with capabilities to support multiscale material modeling. These capabilities include homogenization through the Micromorphic Filter, calibration of micromorphic material models, and macroscale simulation in Tardigrade-MOOSE. This repository investigates continuum upscaling of various direct numerical simulations (DNS) conducted in Abaqus finite element (FE), Ratel FE, and GEOS material point method (MPM) software. Verification of the upscaling workflow is first investigated by considering DNS of trivial stress states for homogeneous materials, results of which indicate that classical continuum behavior is recovered as expected. DNS of heterogeneous materials are then considered.

Allard, Thomas↗

DOE OSTI2024

Revolutionizing Waste Management: AI-Powered Real-Time Characterization for Efficient Handling of Non-Recyclable Municipal Solid Waste

According to EPA, -300 MM tons of municipal solid waste (MSW) was available in the US as of 2018. Of that total material, nearly 50% was landfilled resulting in a significant loss for the potential to convert its energy value into cost effective and sustainable biofuels. Redirecting this material away from the landfill and into conversion ready feedstock for energy generation can directly address DOE's selling price < $2.50/GGE while securing the US national energy independence [1]. However, the paramount challenges in any rational fuel conversion strategy are understanding the chemical makeup, quality and associated calorific value of the MSW. Understanding these parameters is critical in achieving any acceptable fuel conversion and requires rapid characterization followed by accurate separation technologies. Therefore, we are proposing to address the rapid characterization by building a non-invasive, rapid, and highly accurate Artificial Intelligence (AI)-enabled spectrometric/optical approach augmented with multi-sensory information for advanced characterization of domestic heterogeneous MSW. North Carolina State University (NCSU) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), in partnership with strong support from the Town of Cary and IBM, Inc., will closely work together to implement this ground-breaking technology for the effective characterization of MSW for sustainable and affordable production of conversion-ready feedstocks, while solving the environment issue of planetary proportions.

artificial intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2026

Microstructure, Transport, and Mechanics of Compacted Clay Simulated at the 0.1 μm Scale (1400 Smectite Clay Particles) Using a Coarse-Grained Model with Explicit Counterions

Clay-rich geomaterials play a critical role in many subsurface systems. The macroscale properties of these materials (low permeability, high ionic conductivity, high swelling pressure, etc.) are sensitive to molecular-level adsorption and hydration interactions at clay−water interfaces. Efforts to develop multiscale simulation approaches to predict these properties reveal a scale gap between atomistic simulations (typically limited to systems smaller than 10 nm) and continuum-scale models (which use computational grid elements with dimensions ≳ 10 μm). In this study, we present a coarse-grained (CG) framework that partly bridges this gap by simulating compacted smectite clay assemblages with dimensions of 0.1 μm containing 1,400 clay particles across a range of dry densities (1,050 to 1,850 kg·m −3 ) and Na/Ca counterion compositions (Na fraction ranging from 0.2 to 1). The simulated systems, along with their reconstructed binary three-dimensional pore networks, are used to evaluate the microstructure, pore size distribution, tortuosity, ion diffusivity, and swelling pressure of compacted smectite clay. Results show that our approach captures important features of the mesoscale heterogeneity of compacted clays, including tactoid formation, hierarchical porosity, and anisotropic pore networks. Results also reveal how compaction and counterion composition govern emergent behaviors, including dominant pore sizes, directional transport, and electrochemical response. This work highlights the potential of CG simulations to bridge molecular and continuum scales and to advance geotechnical and environmental applications involving clay-rich materials as well as related nanoporous media such as geopolymers and calcium-silicate-hydrate. However, the results also suggest that accurate prediction of certain microstructural and mechanical properties (e.g., swelling pressure) may require even larger-scale systems on the order of 1 μm.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2024

AI-enabled Lorentz microscopy for quantitative imaging of nanoscale magnetic spin textures

The manipulation and control of nanoscale magnetic spin textures are of rising interest as they are potential foundational units in next-generation computing paradigms. Achieving this requires a quantitative understanding of the spin texture behavior under external stimuli using in situ experiments. Lorentz transmission electron microscopy (LTEM) enables real-space imaging of spin textures at the nanoscale, but quantitative characterization of in situ data is extremely challenging. Here, we present an AI-enabled phase-retrieval method based on integrating a generative deep image prior with an image formation forward model for LTEM. Our approach uses a single out-of-focus image for phase retrieval and achieves significantly higher accuracy and robustness to noise compared to existing methods. Furthermore, our method is capable of isolating sample heterogeneities from magnetic contrast, as shown by application to simulated and experimental data. This approach allows quantitative phase reconstruction of in situ data and can also enable near real-time quantitative magnetic imaging.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2014

Adjoint Methods for Adjusting Three-Dimensional Atmosphere and Surface Properties to Fit Multi-Angle/Multi-Pixel Polarimetric Measurements

This paper derives an efficient procedure for using the three-dimensional (3D) vector radiative transfer equation (VRTE) to adjust atmosphere and surface properties and improve their fit with multi-angle/multi-pixel radiometric and polarimetric measurements of scattered sunlight. The proposed adjoint method uses the 3D VRTE to compute the measurement misfit function and the adjoint 3D VRTE to compute its gradient with respect to all unknown parameters. In the remote sensing problems of interest, the scalar-valued misfit function quantifies agreement with data as a function of atmosphere and surface properties, and its gradient guides the search through this parameter space. Remote sensing of the atmosphere and surface in a three-dimensional region may require thousands of unknown parameters and millions of data points. Many approaches would require calls to the 3D VRTE solver in proportion to the number of unknown parameters or measurements. To avoid this issue of scale, we focus on computing the gradient of the misfit function as an alternative to the Jacobian of the measurement operator. The resulting adjoint method provides a way to adjust 3D atmosphere and surface properties with only two calls to the 3D VRTE solver for each spectral channel, regardless of the number of retrieval parameters, measurement view angles or pixels. This gives a procedure for adjusting atmosphere and surface parameters that will scale to the large problems of 3D remote sensing. For certain types of multi-angle/multi-pixel polarimetric measurements, this encourages the development of a new class of three-dimensional retrieval algorithms with more flexible parametrizations of spatial heterogeneity, less reliance on data screening procedures, and improved coverage in terms of the resolved physical processes in the Earth's atmosphere.

linearization↗

NASA NTRS2014

Adjoint Methods for Adjusting Three-Dimensional Atmosphere and Surface Properties to Fit Multi-Angle Multi-Pixel Polarimetric Measurements

adjoint methods↗