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DOE OSTI2024

Optimizing Desalination Operations for Energy Flexibility

Despite the value of energy optimization in desalination processes, modeling dynamic operations for monthly billing periods has remained a computational challenge. This work proposes a framework for energy flexibility optimization, which includes new modeling features for independent operation of parallel skids, start-up delays associated with chemical stabilization, the consideration of industrial energy tariff structures, and inclusion of hourly electrical carbon intensities. This is done using a modular and computationally efficient formulation that guarantees a globally optimal solution with standard optimization solvers. In this study, the approach is demonstrated in two distinct case studies: a seawater desalination plant in Santa Barbara, CA, and an indirect potable reuse facility in San Jose, CA. Trends predicted from the model are validated against operational facility measurements from a demand response shutdown event. Preliminary results show that optimizing energy flexibility can result in 18.51% monthly cost savings over energy efficiency-optimized operation. The value extracted from a facility-wide shutdown during peak electricity price hours is hampered by start-up delays in post-treatment chemical stabilization. In cases in which a facility does not have much excess capacity, using a flow equalization tank or operating over a wide recovery range may be cost-effective.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Proof of the Asymptotic Variance of Path Length Estimators for Single-Collision Monte Carlo Source Iteration in the Thick Diffusion Limit

Here, we prove a theorem relating the variance of path length estimators for single-collision Monte Carlo source iteration to a parameter that becomes infinitesimally small in an important physical regime arising in radiative transfer. In our usage, “single-collision Monte Carlo source iteration” refers to Monte Carlo Boltzmann transport methods in which each Monte Carlo particle history includes no more than a single collision, and the physics of multiple scattering is modeled by lagging the scattering source term and iterating until this term converges. Our theorem can be used to construct variance reduction techniques which improve the order of the estimator variance. This enables calculations that would otherwise require impractically large sample sizes to achieve practical estimator uncertainties. We believe this is the first postulation of a theorem relating estimator variance to a limiting case parameter for single-collision Monte Carlo source iteration, and the first proof of such a theorem. We illustrate the theorem’s value with an example in which the authors of a transport method used the theorem to design a variance reduction technique that improved the uncertainty of their solution by a factor of about 500 for a proxy problem from radiative transfer that contains both optically-thick and optically-thin material.

Mathematics and Computing↗

DOE OSTI2025

Implementation and evaluation of multi-dual mode counter-current chromatography in the CUP Modeler software

Counter-current chromatography (CCC) is a separation technique that utilizes immiscible solvent pairs as stationary and mobile phases, which imparts numerous benefits compared to solid-liquid chromatography including the ability to treat either the more-dense or less-dense solvent layer as the mobile phase. Multi-dual mode (MDM) is a CCC elution mode capable of improving the separation of closely eluting compounds by alternating upper- and lower-layer solvent flows in opposing directions within the same separation. While some effort has been made to model MDM, implementation of these models in experimental design has yet to be widely adopted. Accordingly, we further developed our previously published cell utilized partitioning (CUP) model to include MDM predictions with CCC and packaged the full suite of CUP modeling capabilities into a user-friendly, open-source tool called the CUP Modeler. The mathematical model for MDM CCC was derived and validated with experimental separation of ethyl guaiacol (EG) and ethyl phenol (EP), two compounds that co-elute in our previously demonstrated reductive catalytic fractionation (RCF) lignin monomer isolation method. The developed MDM model provided insights into the effect of multiple operating parameters - including stationary phase retention, flow rate, column efficiency, feed concentration ratio, selectivity factor, and solute distribution ratios - on the separation yields, productivity, and purities. Our model agreed with prevailing understanding of MDM but also revealed new insights including that the ideal distribution ratios for co-eluting solutes to be separated by MDM is between 1.1 and 1.5, with the lower value ideally close to 1.25. Overall, this work provides fundamental insights for MDM process design and enables broader adoption of general liquid-liquid chromatography with a new, open-source user-friendly interface.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2009

Compatibility of Segments of Thermoelectric Generators

A method of calculating (usually for the purpose of maximizing) the power-conversion efficiency of a segmented thermoelectric generator is based on equations derived from the fundamental equations of thermoelectricity. Because it is directly traceable to first principles, the method provides physical explanations in addition to predictions of phenomena involved in segmentation. In comparison with the finite-element method used heretofore to predict (without being able to explain) the behavior of a segmented thermoelectric generator, this method is much simpler to implement in practice: in particular, the efficiency of a segmented thermoelectric generator can be estimated by evaluating equations using only hand-held calculator with this method. In addition, the method provides for determination of cascading ratios. The concept of cascading is illustrated in the figure and the definition of the cascading ratio is defined in the figure caption. An important aspect of the method is its approach to the issue of compatibility among segments, in combination with introduction of the concept of compatibility within a segment. Prior approaches involved the use of only averaged material properties. Two materials in direct contact could be examined for compatibility with each other, but there was no general framework for analysis of compatibility. The present method establishes such a framework. The mathematical derivation of the method begins with the definition of reduced efficiency of a thermoelectric generator as the ratio between (1) its thermal-to-electric power-conversion efficiency and (2) its Carnot efficiency (the maximum efficiency theoretically attainable, given its hot- and cold-side temperatures). The derivation involves calculation of the reduced efficiency of a model thermoelectric generator for which the hot-side temperature is only infinitesimally greater than the cold-side temperature. The derivation includes consideration of the ratio (u) between the electric current and heat-conduction power and leads to the concept of compatibility factor (s) for a given thermoelectric material, defined as the value of u that maximizes the reduced efficiency of the aforementioned model thermoelectric generator.

Snyder, G. Jeffrey↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ensemble Monte Carlo calculations with five novel moves

We introduce five novel types of Monte Carlo (MC) moves that brings the number of moves of ensemble MC calculations from three to eight. So far such calculations have relied on affine invariant stretch moves that were originally introduced by Christen (2007), walk moves by Goodman and Weare (2010) and quadratic moves by Militzer (2023). Ensemble MC methods have been very popular because they harness information about the fitness landscape from a population of walkers rather than relying on expert knowledge. Here we modified the affine method and employed a simplex of points to set the stretch direction. We adopt the simplex concept to quadratic moves. We also generalize quadratic moves to arbitrary order. Finally, we introduce directed moves that employ the values of the probability density while all other types of moves rely solely on the location of the walkers. We apply all algorithms to the Rosenbrock density in 2 and 20 dimensions and to the ring potential in 12 and 24 dimensions. We evaluate their efficiency by comparing error bars, autocorrelation time, travel time, and the level of cohesion that measures whether any walkers were left behind. Our code is open source.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

The DESI DR1 peculiar velocity survey: Growth rate measurements from the galaxy power spectrum

The large-scale structure of the Universe and its evolution encapsulate a wealth of cosmological information. A powerful means of unlocking this knowledge lies in measuring the auto-power spectrum and/or the cross-power spectrum of the galaxy density and momentum fields, followed by the estimation of cosmological parameters based on these spectrum measurements. In this study, we generalize the cross-power spectrum model to accommodate scenarios in which the density and momentum fields are derived from distinct galaxy surveys. The growth rate of the large-scale structures of the Universe, commonly represented as fσ 8 , was extracted by jointly fitting the monopole and quadrupole moments of the auto-density power spectrum, the monopole of the auto-momentum power spectrum, and the dipole of the cross-power spectrum. Our estimators, theoretical models, and parameter-fitting framework were tested using mocks, confirming their robustness and accuracy in retrieving the fiducial growth rate from simulation. These techniques were then applied to analyse the power spectrum of the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey and Peculiar Velocity Survey. The fit result of the growth rate is fσ8 = 0.440$^{+0.080}_{−0.096}$ at effective redshift zeff = 0.07. By synthesizing the fitting outcomes from correlation functions, maximum likelihood estimation, and the power spectrum, a consensus value is yielded of fσ 8 (z eff = 0.07) = 0.450$^{+0.055}_{−0.055}$, and correspondingly we obtain γ = 0.580$^{+0.110}_{−0.110}$, Ω m = 0.301$^{+0.011}_{−0.011}$, and σ 8 = 0.834$^{+0.032}_{−0.032}$. The measured fσ8 and γ are consistent with the prediction of the Λ cold dark matter model and general relativity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Science & Technology Review December 2025 - Optimizing Future Design

At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, we focus on science and technology research to ensure our nation’s security. We also apply that expertise to solve other important national problems in energy, bioscience, and the environment. Science & Technology Review is published eight times a year to communicate, to a broad audience, the Laboratory’s scientific and technological accomplishments in fulfilling its primary missions. The publication’s goal is to help readers understand these accomplishments and appreciate their value to the individual citizen, the nation, and the world.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2005

Faults Discovery By Using Mined Data

Fault discovery in the complex systems consist of model based reasoning, fault tree analysis, rule based inference methods, and other approaches. Model based reasoning builds models for the systems either by mathematic formulations or by experiment model. Fault Tree Analysis shows the possible causes of a system malfunction by enumerating the suspect components and their respective failure modes that may have induced the problem. The rule based inference build the model based on the expert knowledge. Those models and methods have one thing in common; they have presumed some prior-conditions. Complex systems often use fault trees to analyze the faults. Fault diagnosis, when error occurs, is performed by engineers and analysts performing extensive examination of all data gathered during the mission. International Space Station (ISS) control center operates on the data feedback from the system and decisions are made based on threshold values by using fault trees. Since those decision-making tasks are safety critical and must be done promptly, the engineers who manually analyze the data are facing time challenge. To automate this process, this paper present an approach that uses decision trees to discover fault from data in real-time and capture the contents of fault trees as the initial state of the trees.

Lee, Charles↗

DOE OSTI2026

Existence of a robust optimal control process for efficient measurements in a two-qubit system

The verification of quantum entanglement is essential for quality control in quantum communication. In this work we propose an efficient protocol to directly verify the two-qubit entanglement of a known target state through a single-expectation-value measurement. Our method provides exact entanglement quantification using the concurrence measure without performing quantum state tomography. We prove the existence of a unitary transformation that drives a known initial state of a two-qubit system to a designated final state, where the trace over a chosen observable directly yields the concurrence of the initial state. Furthermore, we implement an optimal control process of that transformation and demonstrate its effectiveness through numerical simulations. We also show that this process is robust to environmental noise. Our approach offers advantages in directly verifying entanglement with low circuit depth, making it suitable for industrial-scale quality control of entanglement generation. Our results presented here provide mathematical justification for our earlier computational experiments.

Rodriguez, Ricardo [McPherson Coll.] (ORCID:000000↗

DOE OSTI2024

Report for the ASCR Workshop on Basic Research Needs in Quantum Computing and Networking - 2023

Employing quantum mechanical resources in computing and networking opens the door to new computation and communication models and potential disruptive advantages over classical counterparts. However, quantifying and realizing such advantages face extensive scientific and engineering challenges. Investments by the Department of Energy (DOE) have driven progress toward addressing such challenges. Quantum algorithms have been recently developed, in some cases offering asymptotic exponential advantages in speed or accuracy, for fundamental scientific problems such as simulating physical systems, solving systems of linear equations, or solving differential equations. Empirical demonstrations on nascent quantum hardware suggest better performance than classical analogs on specialized computational tasks favorable to the quantum computing systems. However, demonstration of an end-to-end, substantial and rigorously quantifiable quantum performance advantage over classical analogs remains a grand challenge, especially for problems of practical value. The definition of requirements for quantum technologies to exhibit scalable, rigorous, and transformative performance advantages for practical applications also remains an outstanding open question, namely, what will be required to ultimately demonstrate practical quantum advantage?

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Faster Tensor Network Decoding for Topological Quantum Codes

We present a fast and Bayes-optimal-approximating tensor network decoder for planar quantum LDPC codes based on the tensor renormalization group algorithm, originally proposed by Levin, and Nave. By precomputing the renormalization group flow for the null syndrome, we need only recompute tensor contractions in the causal cone of the measured syndrome at the time of decoding. This allows us to achieve an overall runtime complexity of ($pnχ^6$) where p is the depolarizing noise rate, and χ is the cutoff value used to control singular value decomposition approximations used in the algorithm. We apply our decoder to the surface code in the code capacity noise model and compare its performance to the original matrix product state (MPS) tensor network decoder introduced by Bravyi, Suchara, and Vargo. The MPS decoder has a p-independent runtime complexity of $\mathcal{O}(nχ^3)$ resulting in significantly slower decoding times compared to our algorithm in the low-p regime.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

geoPFA: A Python-Based Open-Source Software for 3D Geothermal PFA

This work presents a novel Python-based framework, geoPFA, for conducting 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) tailored to superhot geothermal systems. The workflow has been applied to the Nesjavellir field in Iceland, a candidate site for the third Iceland Deep Drilling Project's superhot production scenarios. This application demonstrates the value of modular, transparent, and extensible workflows for integrating geological, geophysical, and simulation-derived datasets in high-enthalpy environments. Preliminary results indicate favorable zones consistent with known hydrothermal activity. The geoPFA library will soon be publicly available, offering a scalable and reproducible approach to geothermal exploration across varied geological contexts.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2002

Overall Traveling-Wave-Tube Efficiency Improved By Optimized Multistage Depressed Collector Design

Depressed Collector Design The microwave traveling wave tube (TWT) is used widely for space communications and high-power airborne transmitting sources. One of the most important features in designing a TWT is overall efficiency. Yet, overall TWT efficiency is strongly dependent on the efficiency of the electron beam collector, particularly for high values of collector efficiency. For these reasons, the NASA Glenn Research Center developed an optimization algorithm based on simulated annealing to quickly design highly efficient multistage depressed collectors (MDC's). Simulated annealing is a strategy for solving highly nonlinear combinatorial optimization problems. Its major advantage over other methods is its ability to avoid becoming trapped in local minima. Simulated annealing is based on an analogy to statistical thermodynamics, specifically the physical process of annealing: heating a material to a temperature that permits many atomic rearrangements and then cooling it carefully and slowly, until it freezes into a strong, minimum-energy crystalline structure. This minimum energy crystal corresponds to the optimal solution of a mathematical optimization problem. The TWT used as a baseline for optimization was the 32-GHz, 10-W, helical TWT developed for the Cassini mission to Saturn. The method of collector analysis and design used was a 2-1/2-dimensional computational procedure that employs two types of codes, a large signal analysis code and an electron trajectory code. The large signal analysis code produces the spatial, energetic, and temporal distributions of the spent beam entering the MDC. An electron trajectory code uses the resultant data to perform the actual collector analysis. The MDC was optimized for maximum MDC efficiency and minimum final kinetic energy of all collected electrons (to reduce heat transfer). The preceding figure shows the geometric and electrical configuration of an optimized collector with an efficiency of 93.8 percent. The results show the improvement in collector efficiency from 89.7 to 93.8 percent, resulting in an increase of three overall efficiency points. In addition, the time to design a highly efficient MDC was reduced from a month to a few days. All work was done in-house at Glenn for the High Rate Data Delivery Program. Future plans include optimizing the MDC and TWT interaction circuit in tandem to further improve overall TWT efficiency.

Vaden, Karl R.↗

NASA NTRS1991

What procedure to choose while designing a fuzzy control? Towards mathematical foundations of fuzzy control

Fuzzy control has been successfully applied in industrial systems. However, there is some caution in using it. The reason is that it is based on quite reasonable ideas, but each of these ideas can be implemented in several different ways, and depending on which of the implementations chosen different results are achieved. Some implementations lead to a high quality control, some of them not. And since there are no theoretical methods for choosing the implementation, the basic way to choose it now is experimental. But if one chooses a method that is good for several examples, there is no guarantee that it will work fine in all of them. Hence the caution. A theoretical basis for choosing the fuzzy control procedures is provided. In order to choose a procedure that transforms a fuzzy knowledge into a control, one needs, first, to choose a membership function for each of the fuzzy terms that the experts use, second, to choose operations of uncertainty values that corresponds to 'and' and 'or', and third, when a membership function for control is obtained, one must defuzzy it, that is, somehow generate a value of the control u that will be actually used. A general approach that will help to make all these choices is described: namely, it is proved that under reasonable assumptions membership functions should be linear or fractionally linear, defuzzification must be described by a centroid rule and describe all possible 'and' and 'or' operations. Thus, a theoretical explanation of the existing semi-heuristic choices is given and the basis for the further research on optimal fuzzy control is formulated.

Kreinovich, Vladik YA.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Positive Co‐Degree Density of Hypergraphs

The minimum positive co-degree of a nonempty r-graph H, denoted $δ^+_{r-1}$ (H), is the maximum k such that if S is an (r-1)-set contained in a hyperedge of H, then is contained in at least distinct hyperedges of H. Given an r-graph F, we introduce the positive co-degree Turán number co + ex(n, F) as the maximum positive co-degree $δ^+_{r-1}$ (H) over all n-vertex r-graphs H that do not contain F as a subhypergraph. In this paper, we concentrate on the behavior of co + ex(n, F) for 3-graphs F. In particular, we determine asymptotics and bounds for several well-known concrete 3-graphs F (e.g. $K^-_4$ and the Fano plane). Here, we also show that, for r-graphs, the limit γ + (F)≔ lim$_{n→∞}$ $\frac{co^+ex(n, F)}{n}$ exists, and “jumps” from 0 to 1/r, that is, it never takes on values in the interval . Moreover, we characterize which r-graphs F have γ + (F) = 0. Our motivation comes primarily from the study of (ordinary) co-degree Turán numbers where a number of results have been proved that inspire our results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Epistemic Uncertainty in Binary Classification via Accuracy Gain

ABSTRACT Recently, a surge of interest has been given to quantifying epistemic uncertainty (EU), the reducible portion of uncertainty due to lack of data. We propose a novel EU estimator in the binary classification setting, as the posterior expected value of the empirical gain in accuracy between the current prediction and the optimal prediction. In order to validate the performance of our EU estimator, we introduce an experimental procedure where we take an existing dataset, remove a set of points, and compare the estimated EU with the observed change in accuracy. Through real and simulated data experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed EU estimator.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tracking Dendritic Growth in Hydrogen-Based Hematite Reduction via Computer Vision

The reduction of hematite to metallic iron using hydrogen (H2) as a reducing agent presents a promising pathway for decarbonizing steel production. In this study, we employ a combination of in situ confocal scanning laser microscopy (CSLM) and advanced computer vision techniques to quantitatively analyze dendritic growth of ferrite during H2-based reduction of iron oxide at high temperatures. A workflow integrating Watershed Image Segmentation (WIS) and Lucas-Kanade Optical Flow (LKOF) is developed to extract both global and local kinetic information from time-resolved micrograph sequences. H2 reduction experiments conducted at 1400 degrees C and 1500 degrees C demonstrate a clear correlation between temperature and reduction rate, as evidenced by accuracy of fitted Johnson-Mehl-Avrami-Kolmogorov (JMAK) parameters. Optical flow analysis further elucidates the anisotropic and branched nature of dendritic growth, providing spatially resolved velocity fields that correlate well with global transformation kinetics. The proposed methodology demonstrates strong agreement with experimental measurements and literature values, offering a robust framework for automated image-based analysis to study kinetics through microstructural evolution in the reduction of iron ore, and likely other reaction-diffusion phenomena.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2026

Science & Technology Review June 2026: Predicting Tsunamis

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗