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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 667 records · Page 37
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Hyper‐Local Temperature Prediction Using Detailed Urban Climate Informatics

The accurate modeling of urban microclimate is a challenging task given the high surface heterogeneity of urban land cover and the vertical structure of street morphology. Recent years have witnessed significant efforts in numerical modeling and data collection of the urban environment. Nonetheless, it is difficult for the physical‐based models to fully utilize the high‐resolution data under the constraints of computing resources. The advancement in machine learning (ML) techniques offers the computational strength to handle the massive volume of data. In this study, we proposed a modeling framework that uses ML approach to estimate point‐scale street‐level air temperature from the urban‐resolving meso‐scale climate model and a suite of hyper‐resolution urban geospatial data sets, including three‐dimensional urban morphology, parcel‐level land use inventory, and weather observations from a sensor network. We implemented this approach in the City of Chicago as a case study to demonstrate the capability of the framework. The proposed approach vastly improves the resolution of temperature predictions in cities, which will help the city with walkability, drivability, and heat‐related behavioral studies. Moreover, we tested the model's reliability on out‐of‐sample locations to investigate the modeling uncertainties and the application potentials to the other areas. This study aims to gain insights into next‐gen urban climate modeling and guide the observation efforts in cities to build the strength for the holistic understanding of urban microclimate dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of irrigation expansion on moist-heat stress based on IRRMIP results

Irrigation rapidly expanded during the 20 th century, affecting climate via water, energy, and biogeochemical changes. Previous assessments of these effects predominantly relied on a single Earth System Model, and therefore suffered from structural model uncertainties. Here we quantify the impacts of historical irrigation expansion on climate by analysing simulation results from six Earth system models participating in the Irrigation Model Intercomparison Project (IRRMIP). Results show that irrigation expansion causes a rapid increase in irrigation water withdrawal, which leads to less frequent 2-meter air temperature heat extremes across heavily irrigated areas (≥4 times less likely). However, due to the irrigation-induced increase in air humidity, the cooling effect of irrigation expansion on moist-heat stress is less pronounced or even reversed, depending on the heat stress metric. In summary, this study indicates that irrigation deployment is not an efficient adaptation measure to escalating human heat stress under climate change, calling for carefully dealing with the increased exposure of local people to moist-heat stress.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1991

Active vibration absorber for CSI evolutionary model: Design and experimental results

The development of control of large flexible structures technology must include practical demonstration to aid in the understanding and characterization of controlled structures in space. To support this effort, a testbed facility was developed to study practical implementation of new control technologies under realistic conditions. The design is discussed of a second order, acceleration feedback controller which acts as an active vibration absorber. This controller provides guaranteed stability margins for collocated sensor/actuator pairs in the absence of sensor/actuator dynamics and computational time delay. The primary performance objective considered is damping augmentation of the first nine structural modes. Comparison of experimental and predicted closed loop damping is presented, including test and simulation time histories for open and closed loop cases. Although the simulation and test results are not in full agreement, robustness of this design under model uncertainty is demonstrated. The basic advantage of this second order controller design is that the stability of the controller is model independent.

Bruner, Anne M.↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Corrosion Risk Assessment Model for Underground Piping

The Pressure Systems Manager at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) has embarked on a project to collect data and develop risk assessment models to support risk-informed decision making regarding future inspections of underground pipes at ARC. This paper shows progress in one area of this project - a corrosion risk assessment model for the underground high-pressure air distribution piping system at ARC. It consists of a Corrosion Model of pipe-segments, a Pipe Wrap Protection Model; and a Pipe Stress Model for a pipe segment. A Monte Carlo simulation of the combined models provides a distribution of the failure probabilities. Sensitivity study results show that the model uncertainty, or lack of knowledge, is the dominant contributor to the calculated unreliability of the underground piping system. As a result, the Pressure Systems Manager may consider investing resources specifically focused on reducing these uncertainties. Future work includes completing the data collection effort for the existing ground based pressure systems and applying the risk models to risk-based inspection strategies of the underground pipes at ARC.

Datta, Koushik↗
DOE OSTI2014

Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

wind generation, solar generation, Energy managmen↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying Uncertainty in All-to-All Estimates of Space Object Conjunction Probabilities using U-Statistics

Predicting space object conjunctions is inherently probabilistic due to initial state and orbit model uncertainty. A commonly considered Monte Carlo estimator of the conjunction probability is the ’all-to-all’ estimator. Given independent random samples of the trajectories of both objects, the estimator is the percentage of all pairs of trajectories that result in a conjunction. Intuitively, the all-to-all estimator is the best possible estimator of the conjunction probability since it considers all pairs of Monte Carlo samples. However, its distribution is not available in closed-form, which limits its use in practice and makes this intuition difficult to make rigorous. In this paper, the all-to-all estimator is identified as a U-statistic, which implies that it has several favorable properties. Specifically, the estimator is the minimum variance unbiased estimator of the conjunction probability and is asymptotically Gaussian distributed. An approximate confidence interval for the conjunction probability is obtained from an estimate of the asymptotic Gaussian distribution. We show how to efficiently compute the confidence interval and demonstrate that the interval has the nominal coverage level. The confidence intervals are also seen to be narrower than those based on the commonly-used each-to-each estimator. Furthermore, the all-to-all estimator is shown to allow different Monte Carlo sample sizes, whereas the each-to-each estimator requires equal sample sizes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying uncertainty in machine learning for nuclear binding energy

Techniques from artificial intelligence and machine learning are increasingly employed in nuclear theory; however, the uncertainties that arise from the complex parameter manifold encoded by the neural networks are often overlooked. Epistemic uncertainties arising from training the same network multiple times for an ensemble of initial weight sets offer a first insight into the confidence of machine learning predictions, but they often come with a high computational cost. Instead, we apply a single-model uncertainty quantification method called Δ-UQ that gives epistemic uncertainties with one-time training. Here, we demonstrate our approach on a two-feature model of nuclear binding energies per nucleon with proton and neutron number pairs as inputs. We show that Δ-UQ can produce reliable and self-consistent epistemic uncertainty estimates and can be used to assess the degree of confidence in predictions made with deep neural networks.

Huang, Mengyao [Lawrence Livermore National Labora↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Solar Power Forecasting with Regularized Constrained Quantile Regression Averaging and Bootstrapping Techniques

Probabilistic solar power forecasting (SPF) plays an essential role in optimizing power-grid operations by quantifying the forecast uncertainty. To improve the accuracy and robustness of probabilistic SPF, this paper introduces the regularized constrained quantile regression averaging (rCQRA) method to combine outputs from multiple PSPF models. In addition, a bootstrapping method was used to quantify model uncertainty, providing insights into the reliability and significance of each ensemble component. To evaluate its efficacy, the proposed rCQRA method is used to integrate four PSPF methods. The resulting SPF models are trained and validated using a real-world six-year dataset from a rooftop solar plant in the USA. The performance of the proposed rCQRA method is evaluated and compared with two benchmark methods under three categories of weather conditions. It is shown that the rCQRA method has superior performance in its forecast reliability, sharpness, and accuracy.

Ensemble learning, probabilistic solar power forec↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding drivers and uncertainty in projected African precipitation

We investigate the drivers of projected summer precipitation changes and their uncertainties across Africa in the second half of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios using CMIP6 models. Our results reveal distinct regional precipitation changes, particularly under SSP5-8.5, with robust increases of 75%, 24%, and 17% over the Sahara, South Eastern Africa, and South Central Africa, respectively, and a decline of up to 5% over West Southern Africa (WSAF). In most regions, precipitation increases are driven by enhanced vertical thermodynamic processes associated with temperature-induced moisture increases and enhanced moisture convergence. In contrast, the WSAF decrease is associated with vertical dynamic processes driven by a weakening of the Hadley circulation’s ascending branch. Model uncertainty accounts for over 85% of total projection uncertainty across all regions and is largely due to subgrid-scale parameterizations. Overall, this study enhances our understanding of climate change impacts on African precipitation.

Taguela, Thierry N↗
NASA NTRS1984

An on-line equivalent system identification scheme for adaptive control

A prime obstacle to the widespread use of adaptive control is the degradation of performance and possible instability resulting from the presence of unmodeled dynamics. The approach taken is to explicitly include the unstructured model uncertainty in the output error identification algorithm. The order of the compensator is successively increased by including identified modes. During this model building stage, heuristic rules are used to test for convergence prior to designing compensators. Additionally, the recursive identification algorithm as extended to multi-input, multi-output systems. Enhancements were also made to reduce the computational burden of an algorithm for obtaining minimal state space realizations from the inexact, multivariate transfer functions which result from the identification process. A number of potential adaptive control applications for this approach are illustrated using computer simulations. Results indicated that when speed of adaptation and plant stability are not critical, the proposed schemes converge to enhance system performance.

Sliwa, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

MME-based attitude dynamics identification and estimation for SAMPEX

A method is described for obtaining optimal attitude estimation algorithms for spacecraft lacking attitude rate measurement devices (rate gyros), and then demonstrated using actual flight data from the Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX) spacecraft. SAMPEX does not have on-board rate sensing, and relies on sun sensors and a three-axis magnetometer for attitude determination. Problems arise since typical attitude estimation is accomplished by filtering measurements of both attitude and attitude rates. Rates are nearly always sampled much more densely than are attitudes. Thus, the absence/loss of rate data normally reduces both the total amount of data available and the sampling density (in time) by a substantial fraction. As a result, the sensitivity of the estimates to model uncertainty and to measurement noise increases. In order to maintain accuracy in the attitude estimates, there is increased need for accurate models of the rotational dynamics. The proposed approach is based on the minimum model error (MME) optimal estimation strategy, which has been successfully applied to estimation of poorly modeled dynamic systems which are relatively sparsely and/or noisily measured. The MME estimates may be used to construct accurate models of the system dynamics (i.e. perform system model identification). Thus, an MME-based approach directly addresses the problems created by absence of attitude rate measurements.

Depena, Juan↗
NASA NTRS2001

A forward model-based validation of cardiovascular system identification

We present a theoretical evaluation of a cardiovascular system identification method that we previously developed for the analysis of beat-to-beat fluctuations in noninvasively measured heart rate, arterial blood pressure, and instantaneous lung volume. The method provides a dynamical characterization of the important autonomic and mechanical mechanisms responsible for coupling the fluctuations (inverse modeling). To carry out the evaluation, we developed a computational model of the cardiovascular system capable of generating realistic beat-to-beat variability (forward modeling). We applied the method to data generated from the forward model and compared the resulting estimated dynamics with the actual dynamics of the forward model, which were either precisely known or easily determined. We found that the estimated dynamics corresponded to the actual dynamics and that this correspondence was robust to forward model uncertainty. We also demonstrated the sensitivity of the method in detecting small changes in parameters characterizing autonomic function in the forward model. These results provide confidence in the performance of the cardiovascular system identification method when applied to experimental data.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗
NASA NTRS2014

Validation of the 5th and 95th Percentile Hybrid III Anthropomorphic Test Device Finite Element Model

NASA spacecraft design requirements for occupant protection are a combination of the Brinkley criteria and injury metrics extracted from anthropomorphic test devices (ATD's). For the ATD injury metrics, the requirements specify the use of the 5th percentile female Hybrid III and the 95th percentile male Hybrid III. Furthermore, each of these ATD's is required to be fitted with an articulating pelvis and a straight spine. The articulating pelvis is necessary for the ATD to fit into spacecraft seats, while the straight spine is required as injury metrics for vertical accelerations are better defined for this configuration. The requirements require that physical testing be performed with both ATD's to demonstrate compliance. Before compliance testing can be conducted, extensive modeling and simulation are required to determine appropriate test conditions, simulate conditions not feasible for testing, and assess design features to better ensure compliance testing is successful. While finite element (FE) models are currently available for many of the physical ATD's, currently there are no complete models for either the 5th percentile female or the 95th percentile male Hybrid III with a straight spine and articulating pelvis. The purpose of this work is to assess the accuracy of the existing Livermore Software Technology Corporation's FE models of the 5th and 95th percentile ATD's. To perform this assessment, a series of tests will be performed at Wright Patterson Air Force Research Lab using their horizontal impact accelerator sled test facility. The ATD's will be placed in the Orion seat with a modified-advanced-crew-escape-system (MACES) pressure suit and helmet, and driven with loadings similar to what is expected for the actual Orion vehicle during landing, launch abort, and chute deployment. Test data will be compared to analytical predictions and modelling uncertainty factors will be determined for each injury metric. Additionally, the test data will be used to further improve the FE model, particularly in the areas of the ATD neck components, harness, and suit and helmet effects.

Lawrence, C.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Simulating the universe(s): from cosmic bubble collisions to cosmological observables with numerical relativity

The theory of eternal inflation in an inflaton potential with multiple vacua predicts that our universe is one of many bubble universes nucleating and growing inside an ever-expanding false vacuum. The collision of our bubble with another could provide an important observational signature to test this scenario. We develop and implement an algorithm for accurately computing the cosmological observables arising from bubble collisions directly from the Lagrangian of a single scalar field. We first simulate the collision spacetime by solving Einstein's equations, starting from nucleation and ending at reheating. Taking advantage of the collision's hyperbolic symmetry, the simulations are performed with a 1+1-dimensional fully relativistic code that uses adaptive mesh refinement. We then calculate the comoving curvature perturbation in an open Friedmann-Robertson-Walker universe, which is used to determine the temperature anisotropies of the cosmic microwave background radiation. For a fiducial Lagrangian, the anisotropies are well described by a power law in the cosine of the angular distance from the center of the collision signature. For a given form of the Lagrangian, the resulting observational predictions are inherently statistical due to stochastic elements of the bubble nucleation process. Further uncertainties arise due to our imperfect knowledge about inflationary and pre-recombination physics. We characterize observational predictions by computing the probability distributions over four phenomenological parameters which capture these intrinsic and model uncertainties. This represents the first fully-relativistic set of predictions from an ensemble of scalar field models giving rise to eternal inflation, yielding significant differences from previous non-relativistic approximations. Thus, our results provide a basis for a rigorous confrontation of these theories with cosmological data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1982

Geoid height-age relation from Seasat altimeter profiles across the Mendocino Fracture Zone

Twenty-eight Seasat altimeter profiles crossing the Mendocino Fracture Zone are used together with seafloor ages determined from magnetic lineations to estimate the change in oceanic geoid height with age, between ages of 15 and 135 m.y. An unbiased estimate of the overall geoid offset along each profile is determined from a least-squares fit of the along-track derivative of the geoid to the geoid slope predicted from a simple two-layer gravitational edge effect model. Uncertainties based upon the statistical properties of each profile are also determined. A geoid slope-age relation is constructed by normalizing the geoid offsets and uncertainties by the age offsets. The results are in agreement with geoid slope-age relations determined from symmetrically spreading ridges (Sandwell and Schubert, 1980). However, the fracture zone estimates have smaller uncertainties and show less scatter. A comparison of these results with the geoid slope-age prediction of the boundary layer cooling model shows that the thermal structure begins to deviate from this model at an early age (20-40 m.y.). A plate cooling model with a thickness of 125 km is most compatible with the geoid slope-age estimates, although significant deviations occur; these may indicate that the lithospheric thermal structure is not entirely age dependent.

Sandwell, D. T.↗
NASA NTRS1985

On the geographical correlation of orbit error

The orbit accuracies needed to support the global crustal dynamics project and recent satellite altimeter missions have placed unique demands on the data analysis and orbit analysis systems. These demands include accurate and well distributed observations, improved computational techniques and substantial enhancements in the force models which represent the satellite's motion. For example, the satellite altimeter mission (TOPEX), whose objectives will be: (1) to measure the time variable ocean surface topography, and (2) to demonstrate the ability to map the general ocean circulation, requires that the radial component of the satellite's orbit be known with an rms accuracy of 13 cm for the three year mission lifetime. The primary force model uncertainty which limits the contemporary orbit computation accuracy is the inaccuracy in the values assigned to the spherical harmonic coefficients used to model the Earth's gravity field.

Tapley, B. D.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Use of nonlinear identification in robust attitude and attitude rate estimation for SAMPEX

A method is described for obtaining optimal attitude estimation/identification algorithms for spacecraft lacking attitude rate measurement devices (rate gyros), and then demonstrated using actual flight data from the Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX) spacecraft. SAMPEX does not have on-board rate sensing, and relies on sun sensors and a three-axis magnetometer for attitude determination. The absence of rate data normally reduces both the total amount of data available and the sampling density (in time) by a substantial fraction. In addition, attitude data is occasionally unavailable (for example, during sun occultation). As a result, the sensitivity of the estimates to model uncertainty and to measurement noise increases. In order to maintain accuracy in the attitude estimates, there is an increased need for accurate models of the rotational dynamics. The Minimum Model Error(MME)/Least Square Correlation(LSC) algorithm accurately identifies an improved model for SAMPEX to be used during periods of complete data loss or extreme noise. The model correction is determined by estimating only one orbit(the identification pass) just prior to the assumed data loss(the prediction pass). The MME estimator correctly predicted the states during the identification phase, but more importantly determines the necessary model correction trajectory, d(t). The LSC algorithm is then used to find this trajectory's functional form, H(x(t)). The results show significant improvement of the new corrected model's attitude estimates as compared to the original uncorrected model's estimates. The possible functional form of the correction term is limited at this point in the study to functions strictly of the estimated states. The results, however, strongly suggest that functions based on the relative position of the satellite may also be possible candidates for future consideration.

Mook, D. Joseph↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Near-Term Concept for Trajectory Based Operations with Air/Ground Data Link Communication

An operating concept and required system components for trajectory-based operations with air/ground data link for today's en route and transition airspace is proposed. Controllers are fully responsible for separation as they are today, and no new aircraft equipage is required. Trajectory automation computes integrated solutions to problems like metering, weather avoidance, traffic conflicts and the desire to find and fly more time/fuel efficient flight trajectories. A common ground-based system supports all levels of aircraft equipage and performance including those equipped and not equipped for data link. User interface functions for the radar controller's display make trajectory-based clearance advisories easy to visualize, modify if necessary, and implement. Laboratory simulations (without human operators) were conducted to test integrated operation of selected system components with uncertainty modeling. Results are based on 102 hours of Fort Worth Center traffic recordings involving over 37,000 individual flights. The presence of uncertainty had a marginal effect (5%) on minimum-delay conflict resolution performance, and windfavorable routes had no effect on detection and resolution metrics. Flight plan amendments and clearances were substantially reduced compared to today s operations. Top-of-descent prediction errors are the largest cause of failure indicating that better descent predictions are needed to reliably achieve fuel-efficient descent profiles in medium to heavy traffic. Improved conflict detections for climbing flights could enable substantially more continuous climbs to cruise altitude. Unlike today s Conflict Alert, tactical automation must alert when an altitude amendment is entered, but before the aircraft starts the maneuver. In every other failure case tactical automation prevented losses of separation. A real-time prototype trajectory trajectory-automation system is running now and could be made ready for operational testing at an en route Center in 1-2 years.

McNally, David↗