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DOE OSTI2022

Using a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework to calibrate the runoff-generation scheme in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) v1

Abstract. Runoff is a critical component of the terrestrial water cycle, and Earth system models (ESMs) are essential tools to study its spatiotemporal variability. Runoff schemes in ESMs typically include many parameters so that model calibration is necessary to improve the accuracy of simulated runoff. However, runoff calibration at a global scale is challenging because of the high computational cost and the lack of reliable observational datasets. In this study, we calibrated 11 runoff relevant parameters in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) using a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework. First, the polynomial chaos expansion machinery with Bayesian compressed sensing is used to construct computationally inexpensive surrogate models for ELM-simulated runoff at 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ for 1991–2010. The error metric between the ELM simulations and the benchmark data is selected to construct the surrogates, which facilitates efficient calibration and avoids the more conventional, but challenging, construction of high-dimensional surrogates for the ELM simulated runoff. Second, the Sobol' index sensitivity analysis is performed using the surrogate models to identify the most sensitive parameters, and our results show that, in most regions, ELM-simulated runoff is strongly sensitive to 3 of the 11 uncertain parameters. Third, a Bayesian method is used to infer the optimal values of the most sensitive parameters using an observation-based global runoff dataset as the benchmark. Our results show that model performance is significantly improved with the inferred parameter values. Although the parametric uncertainty of simulated runoff is reduced after the parameter inference, it remains comparable to the multimodel ensemble uncertainty represented by the global hydrological models in ISMIP2a. Additionally, the annual global runoff trend during the simulation period is not well constrained by the inferred parameter values, suggesting the importance of including parametric uncertainty in future runoff projections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Investigation of thermal hydraulic behavior of the High Temperature Test Facility's lower plenum via large eddy simulation

A high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis was performed using the Large Eddy Simulation (LES) model for the lower plenum of the High–Temperature Test Facility (HTTF), a ¼ scale test facility of the modular high temperature gas-cooled reactor (MHTGR) managed by Oregon State University. In most next–generation nuclear reactors, thermal stress due to thermal striping is one of the risks to be curiously considered. This is also true for HTGRs, especially since the exhaust helium gas temperature is high. In order to evaluate these risks and performance, organizations in the United States led by the OECD NEA are conducting a thermal hydraulic code benchmark for HTGR, and the test facility used for this benchmark is HTTF. HTTF can perform experiments in both normal and accident situations and provide high-quality experimental data. However, it is difficult to provide sufficient data for benchmarking through experiments, and there is a problem with the reliability of CFD analysis results based on Reynolds–averaged Navier–Stokes to analyze thermal hydraulic behavior without verification. To solve this problem, high-fidelity 3-D CFD analysis was performed using the LES model for HTTF. It was also verified that the LES model can properly simulate this jet mixing phenomenon via a unit cell test that provides experimental information. As a result of CFD analysis, the lower the dependency of the sub-grid scale model, the closer to the actual analysis result. In the case of unit cell test CFD analysis and HTTF CFD analysis, the volume-averaged sub-grid scale model dependency was calculated to be 13.0% and 9.16%, respectively. As a result of HTTF analysis, quantitative data of the fluid inside the HTTF lower plenum was provided in this paper. As a result of qualitative analysis, the temperature was highest at the center of the lower plenum, while the temperature fluctuation was highest near the edge of the lower plenum wall. The power spectral density of temperature was analyzed via fast Fourier transform (FFT) for specific points on the center and side of the lower plenum. FFT results did not reveal specific frequency-dominant temperature fluctuations in the center part. It was confirmed that the temperature power spectral density (PSD) at the top increased from the center to the wake. The vortex was visualized using the well-known scalar Q-criterion, and as a result, the closer to the outlet duct, the greater the influence of the mainstream, so that the inflow jet vortex was dissipated and mixed at the top of the lower plenum. Additionally, FFT analysis was performed on the support structure near the corner of the lower plenum with large temperature fluctuations, and as a result, it was confirmed that the temperature fluctuation of the flow did not have a significant effect near the corner wall. In addition, the vortices generated from the lower plenum to the outlet duct were identified in this paper. It is considered that the quantitative and qualitative results presented in this paper will serve as reference data for the benchmark.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2018

DWT-Based Aggregated Load Modeling and Evaluation for Quasi-Static Time-Series Simulation on Distribution Feeders

This paper presents an extension of a previously reported discrete wavelet transform (DWT) based load modeling methodology which targets at modeling time-series load profiles to enable the more effective and realistic quasi-static time-series simulation of distribution feeders. The time-series load model is composed of two major parts: 1) The low-resolution field-measured load data which usually have a resolution of 30 or 15 min., 2) The high-resolution load variability model data extracted from the established variability database which can have resolution up to 1 sec. A load aggregation methodology is developed to aggregate the load profiles so that load profiles at different transformer ratings can be effectively modeled. Validation, evaluation, and analysis of the developed load modeling approach has been performed on the IEEE-123 feeder and an actual utility feeder from California. The analysis completed on the two feeders have demonstrated the effectiveness and revealed the value of the developed model for distribution feeder quasi-static time-series simulation at high temporal resolution.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2018

DWT-Based Aggregated Load Modeling and Evaluation for Quasi-Static Time-Series Simulation on Distribution Feeders: Preprint

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Plant-specific Model and Data Analysis using Dynamic Security Modeling and Simulation

The requirements for U.S. nuclear power plants to maintain a large on-site physical security force contribute to their high operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program’s physical security pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. The conservatisms built into current security postures may be analyzed and minimized in order to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within LWRS program’s physical security pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrating them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This document provides an update on the progress in applying a dynamic computational framework that links results from a commercially available force-on-force simulation tool, a commercially available thermal-hydraulic tool, and EMRALD to an operating commercial nuclear power plant. This report is only a summary of the progress and does not contain specific modeling results as those contain sensitive security information. This process of including plant procedures and multiple analysis results is being called Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework or MASS-DEF. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific force-on-force models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as CAFTA (Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System) or SAPHIRE (Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations), and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report documents the results of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. This report does not contain any plant's sensitive information and/or Safeguards Information. The purpose of this study was to verify that results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and to refine our guidance on the use of the framework. This assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-T-355: Evaluation of Knowledge-Based Planning Model for the Cervical Cancer Radiotherapy

Purpose: The Varian RapidPlan™ is a commercial knowledge-based optimization process which uses a set of clinically used treatment plans to train a model that can predict individualized dose-volume objectives. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the performance of RapidPlan to generate intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) plans for cervical cancer. Methods: Totally 70 IMRT plans for cervical cancer with varying clinical and physiological indications were enrolled in this study. These patients were all previously treated in our institution. There were two prescription levels usually used in our institution: 45Gy/25 fractions and 50.4Gy/28 fractions. 50 of these plans were selected to train the RapidPlan model for predicting dose-volume constraints. After model training, this model was validated with 10 plans from training pool(internal validation) and additional other 20 new plans(external validation). All plans used for the validation were re-optimized with the original beam configuration and the generated priorities from RapidPlan were manually adjusted to ensure that re-optimized DVH located in the range of the model prediction. DVH quantitative analysis was performed to compare the RapidPlan generated and the original manual optimized plans. Results: For all the validation cases, RapidPlan based plans (RapidPlan) showed similar or superior results compared to the manual optimized ones. RapidPlan increased the result of D98% and homogeneity in both two validations. For organs at risk, the RapidPlan decreased mean doses of bladder by 1.25Gy/1.13Gy (internal/external validation) on average, with p=0.12/p<0.01. The mean dose of rectum and bowel were also decreased by an average of 2.64Gy/0.83Gy and 0.66Gy/1.05Gy,with p<0.01/ p<0.01and p=0.04/<0.01 for the internal/external validation, respectively. Conclusion: The RapidPlan model based cervical cancer plans shows ability to systematically improve the IMRT plan quality. It suggests that RapidPlan has great potential to make the treatment planning process more efficient.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

High-Resolution Regional Wave Hindcast for U.S. Pacific Island Territories

This report summarizes modeling efforts for hindcasting of wave climate within the Exclusive Economic Zone around American Samoa, Baker Island and Howland Island, Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Jarvis Island, Johnston Atoll, Palmyra Atoll and Kingman Reef, and Wake Island. The report describes the mesh development and data sources used in the process. In addition, it provides the results of a sensitivity analysis performed to determine the optimal model configuration, details the data used for model forcing, shows a detailed skill assessment, and depicts the output.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

NASA NTRS2010

NDARC - NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft Validation and Demonstration

Validation and demonstration results from the development of the conceptual design tool NDARC (NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft) are presented. The principal tasks of NDARC are to design a rotorcraft to satisfy specified design conditions and missions, and then analyze the performance of the aircraft for a set of off-design missions and point operating conditions. The aircraft chosen as NDARC development test cases are the UH-60A single main-rotor and tail-rotor helicopter, the CH-47D tandem helicopter, the XH-59A coaxial lift-offset helicopter, and the XV-15 tiltrotor. These aircraft were selected because flight performance data, a weight statement, detailed geometry information, and a correlated comprehensive analysis model are available for each. Validation consists of developing the NDARC models for these aircraft by using geometry and weight information, airframe wind tunnel test data, engine decks, rotor performance tests, and comprehensive analysis results; and then comparing the NDARC results for aircraft and component performance with flight test data. Based on the calibrated models, the capability of the code to size rotorcraft is explored.

Johnson, Wayne↗

DOE OSTI2022

Ionization yield measurement in a germanium CDMSlite detector using photo-neutron sources

Two photo-neutron sources, Y 88 Be 9 and Sb 124 Be 9 , have been used to investigate the ionization yield of nuclear recoils in the CDMSlite germanium detectors by the SuperCDMS collaboration. In this study, we evaluate the yield for nuclear recoil energies between 1 and 7 keV at a temperature of ~ 50 mK . We use a geant4 simulation to model the neutron spectrum assuming a charge yield model that is a generalization of the standard Lindhard model and consists of two energy dependent parameters. We perform a likelihood analysis using the simulated neutron spectrum, modeled background, and experimental data to obtain the best fit values of the yield model. The ionization yield between recoil energies of 1 and 7 keV is shown to be significantly lower than predicted by the standard Lindhard model for germanium. There is a general lack of agreement among different experiments using a variety of techniques studying the low energy range of the nuclear recoil yield, which is most critical for interpretation of direct dark matter searches. This suggests complexity in the physical process that many direct detection experiments use to model their primary signal detection mechanism and highlights the need for further studies to clarify underlying systematic effects that have not been well understood up to this point.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

EM and beam dynamics modeling of CCL with CST Studio

The 800-MeV proton linac at LANSCE consists of a drift-tube linac, which brings the beam to 100 MeV, followed by a coupled-cavity linac (CCL). Each of 44 CCL modules contain multiple tanks, and it is fed by a single 805-MHz klystron. CCL tanks are multi-cell blocks of identical re-entrant sidecoupled cavities, which are followed by drifts with magnetic quadrupole doublets. Bridge couplers – special cavities displaced from the beam axis – electromagnetically couple CCL tanks over such drifts. We have developed 3D CST models of CCL tanks of the LANSCE linac. Their electromagnetic analysis is performed using MicroWave Studio. Beam dynamics is modeled with Particle Studio for bunch trains with realistic beam distributions using the CST calculated RF fields and quadrupole magnetic fields to determine the output beam parameters.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1981

Interactive design and analysis of future large spacecraft concepts

An interactive computer aided design program used to perform systems level design and analysis of large spacecraft concepts is presented. Emphasis is on rapid design, analysis of integrated spacecraft, and automatic spacecraft modeling for lattice structures. Capabilities and performance of multidiscipline applications modules, the executive and data management software, and graphics display features are reviewed. A single user at an interactive terminal create, design, analyze, and conduct parametric studies of Earth orbiting spacecraft with relative ease. Data generated in the design, analysis, and performance evaluation of an Earth-orbiting large diameter antenna satellite are used to illustrate current capabilities. Computer run time statistics for the individual modules quantify the speed at which modeling, analysis, and design evaluation of integrated spacecraft concepts is accomplished in a user interactive computing environment.

Garrett, L. B.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Representative-cell-based Modeling of HTTF in SAM

Although the current nuclear power market is primarily occupied by the light water reactors (LWRs), the TRISO-fueled helium-cooled graphite-moderated high temperature gas reactors (HTGRs) are drawing growing attention as the nuclear power industry marches towards more advanced systems. Compared to that of conventional LWRs, the thermal hydraulics of HTGR cores show extra complexity from their multi-scale heat transfer mechanisms with varying importance during different operation modes or transient stages. The modeling of HTGR cores for the system analysis purpose therefore faces the challenge of reaching reasonable fidelity and accuracy while maintaining sufficient simplicity. Previous development and validation efforts have demonstrated that a “2-D ring model” with reasonable performance can be implemented in the System Analysis Module (SAM) for prismatic HTGR cores. In the current project, an alternative modeling methodology based on “representative cells” is proposed for the typical prismatic core of HTGRs. Different from the previous ring model approach, the proposed methodology first separately models and then combines the small- and large-scale thermal conductions, by connecting representative local heat transfer units (cells) with effective core- wise thermal resistance. A modeling practice for an integral high-temperature test facility (HTTF) elaborates the modeling details. Steady-state validation of the resultant candidate model is performed against a higher-resolution benchmark from a 3D-1D coupled simulation, which shows satisfactory prediction with reasonably captured global parameters and well-represented temperature fields. A postulated pressurized conduction cooldown (PCC) is also simulated and analyzed, demonstrating the model’s capability of transient prediction with physically captured phenomena resolved in both small and large temporal and spatial scales. In general, the current work achieves a preliminary success in proposing a methodology using representative cells to model prismatic HTGR cores in SAM. Future efforts are envisioned with more validation activities and with potential modeling improvements to eventually achieve the high confidence on a high-fidelity robust modeling methodology with reasonable accuracy.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS1998

An Introduction to Markov Modeling: Concepts and Uses

Kharkov modeling is a modeling technique that is widely useful for dependability analysis of complex fault tolerant systems. It is very flexible in the type of systems and system behavior it can model. It is not, however, the most appropriate modeling technique for every modeling situation. The first task in obtaining a reliability or availability estimate for a system is selecting which modeling technique is most appropriate to the situation at hand. A person performing a dependability analysis must confront the question: is Kharkov modeling most appropriate to the system under consideration, or should another technique be used instead? The need to answer this gives rise to other more basic questions regarding Kharkov modeling: what are the capabilities and limitations of Kharkov modeling as a modeling technique? How does it relate to other modeling techniques? What kind of system behavior can it model? What kinds of software tools are available for performing dependability analyses with Kharkov modeling techniques? These questions and others will be addressed in this tutorial.

Boyd, Mark A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Critical Parameter Identification of Fuel-Cell Models Using Sensitivity Analysis

Numerical modeling has been a vital tool in proton-exchange-membrane fuel-cell (PEMFC) analysis; however, the predictive capabilities of these models depend on the input physical parameters, several of which are either not experimentally measured or have large scatter in measured values. This article presents an uncertainty propagation-based sensitivity analysis to identify the model parameters that impact the model predictions most. A comprehensive 2-D membrane electrode assembly (MEA) model is used to perform local sensitivity analysis at multiple operating conditions, which encompass the range of environments and operating conditions a cell can encounter. While at lower humidities, cathode kinetics and membrane-ohmic-loss related parameters are crucial, gas transport and porous-media saturation behavior are more important at humidified conditions. Several of these findings are different from previous studies presented in literature. Identifying the crucial parameters helps focus future material and cell optimization studies as well as experimental studies to quantify these parameters with higher accuracy.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

TRITIUM TRANSPORT MODELING AT THE PORE SCALE IN CERAMIC BEEDER MATERIALS USING TMAP8

Fusion reactors depend on the blanket material to breed and release tritium at the same rate or faster than it is consumed by the fusion reaction. Cellular ceramic breeders are dense materials that can maintain a high tritium breeding ratio while promoting tritium release thanks to highly connected pores. Assessing the tritium breeding capabilities of these materials requires a combination of extensive experimental and modeling efforts. In this work, we develop and calibrate a multiphysics model of tritium transport. This novel model accounts for ceramic and pore diffusion, trapping and detrapping, and several surface reactions at the pore surface. We perform a sensitivity analysis and calibrate the model by comparing its predictions against experimental measurements of deuterium absorption. The calibrated model is then used to model tritium absorption in samples with different pore microstructures to investigate the effect of pore interconnectivity on tritium absorption. The model is part of the development of the multiscale, multiphysics framework for tritium transport (i.e., the Tritium Migration Analysis Program [TMAP8]), which is itself built on top of the finite element multiphysics framework MOOSE. This study demonstrates some of TMAP8’s capabilities, and is the first step toward assessing the tritium breeding capabilities of ceramic breeder material designs.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2023

ECAR-7210 Rev 0 Steady-state Thermo-mechanical Analysis of the MARVEL Fuel Bundle

This document reports the steady-state thermal-hydraulic and static mechanical analyses of the MARVEL micro-reactor core. The objective of this work is to investigate whether fuel-to-fuel contact could occur due to the thermal deformation of the fuel cladding during the normal operation and to assess the resulting impact on the peak cladding temperatures (PCT) if contact occurs. The scope of the work consists of three computational tasks. First, a conjugate heat transfer analysis using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was performed to evaluate the PCTs during normal operating conditions. Second, a finite element analysis (FEA) using the cladding temperature field obtained from the CFD analysis was performed to evaluate the thermal deformation of cladding and determine the occurrence of fuel-to-fuel contact. Finally, a CFD analysis of FEA-informed fuel-to-fuel gap (represented by a conservative 0.05 mm uniform gap) was performed to evaluate whether the PCT exceeds the safety criteria.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

NASA NTRS1984

Application of finite element substructuring to composite micromechanics

Finite element substructuring is used to predict unidirectional fiber composite hygral (moisture), thermal, and mechanical properties. COSMIC NASTRAN and MSC/NASTRAN are used to perform the finite element analysis. The results obtained from the finite element model are compared with those obtained from the simplified composite micromechanics equations. A unidirectional composite structure made of boron/HM-epoxy, S-glass/IMHS-epoxy and AS/IMHS-epoxy are studied. The finite element analysis is performed using three dimensional isoparametric brick elements and two distinct models. The first model consists of a single cell (one fiber surrounded by matrix) to form a square. The second model uses the single cell and substructuring to form a nine cell square array. To compare computer time and results with the nine cell superelement model, another nine cell model is constructed using conventional mesh generation techniques. An independent computer program consisting of the simplified micromechanics equation is developed to predict the hygral, thermal, and mechanical properties for this comparison. The results indicate that advanced techniques can be used advantageously for fiber composite micromechanics.

Caruso, J. J.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Simulation Comparisons of Particulate Emissions from Fires under Marginal and Critical Conditions

Using a particulate emissions model developed for FIRETEC, we explore differences in particle emission profiles between high-intensity fires under critical conditions and low-intensity fires under marginal conditions. Simulations were performed in a chaparral shrubland and a coniferous pine forest representative of the southeast United States. In each case, simulations were carried out under marginal and critical fire conditions. Marginal fire conditions include high moisture levels and low winds, often desired for prescribed fires as these conditions produce a low-intensity burn with slower spread rates. Critical fire conditions include low moisture levels and high winds, which easily lead to uncontrollable wildfires which produce a high-intensity burn with faster spread rates. These simulations’ resultant particle emission profiles show critical fire conditions generate larger particle emission factors, higher total mass emissions, and a higher lofting potential of particles into the atmosphere when compared against marginal fire conditions but similar particle size distrubtions. In addition, a sensitivity analysis of the emissions model was performed to evaluate key parameters which govern particle emission factor and particle size.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗