Central America Disasters: Using Earth Observations to Map Flooding for Disaster Monitoring, to Inform Potential Risk, and Prepare for Possible Response
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Lauren Carey↗
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A Latent-Variable Formulation of the Poisson Canonical Polyadic Tensor Model: Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Fisher Information
We establish parameter inference for the Poisson canonical polyadic (PCP) tensor model through a latent-variable formulation. Our approach exploits the observation that any random PCP tensor can be derived by marginalizing an unobservable random tensor of one dimension larger. The loglikelihood of this larger dimensional tensor, referred to as the “complete” loglikelihood, is comprised of multiple rank one PCP loglikelihoods. Using this methodology, we first derive maximum likelihood estimators for the PCP model and demonstrate that several existing algorithms for fitting non-negative matrix and tensor factorizations are Expectation-Maximization algorithms. Next, we derive the observed and expected Fisher information matrices for the PCP model. The Fisher information provides us crucial insights into the well-posedness of the tensor model, such as the role that tensor rank plays in identifiability and indeterminacy. For the special case of rank one PCP models, we demonstrate that these results are greatly simplified.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Enhance Low Level Temperature and Moisture Profiles Through Combining NUCAPS, ABI Observations, and RTMA Analysis
Thermodynamic information from low levels in the atmosphere is crucial for operational weather forecasts and meteorological researchers. The NOAA Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System (NUCAPS) sounding products have been proven beneficial to fill the data gap between synoptic radiosonde observations (RAOBs). However, compared with the upper troposphere, the accuracy of NUCAPS soundings in the low levels still needs improvement. In this study, a deep neural network (DNN) is applied to fuse multiple data sources to enhance the NUCAPS temperature and moisture profiles in the lower atmosphere. The network is developed by combining satellite observations, including NUCAPS sounding retrievals and high resolution geostationary satellite observations from the Advanced Baseline Imager, and surface analysis from the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) as inputs, while collocated soundings from ECMWF re-analysis version 5 are used as the benchmark for the training. The performance of the model is evaluated by using the independent testing data set, data from a different year, as well as collocated RAOBs, showing improvement to the temperature and moisture profiles by reducing the root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) by more than 30% in the lower atmosphere (from 700 hPa to surface) in both clear sky and partially cloudy conditions. A convective event from June 18, 2017 is presented to illustrate the application of the enhanced low level soundings on high impact weather events. The enhanced soundings from fused data capture the large surface-based convective available potential energy structures in the preconvection environment, which is very useful for severe storm nowcasting and forecasting applications.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
4-D Cloud Water Content Fields Derived from Operational Satellite Data
In order to improve operational safety and efficiency, the transportation industry, including aviation, has an urgent need for accurate diagnoses and predictions of clouds and associated weather conditions. Adverse weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System. The Federal Aviation Administration has determined that as much as two thirds of weather-related delays are potentially avoidable with better weather information and roughly 20% of all aviation accidents are weather related. Thus, it is recognized that an important factor in meeting the goals of the Next Generation Transportation System (NexGen) vision is the improved integration of weather information. The concept of a 4-D weather cube is being developed to address that need by integrating observed and forecasted weather information into a shared 4-D database, providing an integrated and nationally consistent weather picture for a variety of users and to support operational decision support systems. Weather analyses and forecasts derived using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are a critical tool that forecasters rely on for guidance and also an important element in current and future decision support systems. For example, the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) and the recently implemented Rapid Refresh (RR) Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) models provide high frequency forecasts and are key elements of the FAA Aviation Weather Research Program. Because clouds play a crucial role in the dynamics and thermodynamics of the atmosphere, they must be adequately accounted for in NWP models. The RUC, for example, cycles at full resolution five cloud microphysical species (cloud water, cloud ice, rain, snow, and graupel) and has the capability of updating these fields from observations. In order to improve the models initial state and subsequent forecasts, cloud top altitude (or temperature, T(sub c)) derived from operational satellite data, surface observations of cloud base altitude, radar reflectivity, and lightning data are used to help build and remove clouds in the models assimilation system. Despite this advance and the many recent advances made in our understanding of cloud physical processes and radiative effects, many problems remain in adequately representing clouds in models. While the assimilation of cloud top information derived from operational satellite data has merit, other information is available that has not yet been exploited. For example, the vertically integrated cloud water content (CWC) or cloud water path (CWP) and cloud geometric thickness (delta Z) are standard products being derived routinely from operational satellite data. These and other cloud products have been validated under a variety of conditions. Since the uncertainties have generally been found to be less than those found in model analyses and forecasts, the satellite products should be suitable for data assimilation, provided an appropriate strategy can be developed that links the satellite-derived cloud parameters with cloud parameters specified in the model. In this paper, we briefly outline such a strategy and describe a methodology to retrieve cloud water content profiles from operational satellite data. Initial results and future plans are presented. It is expected that the direct assimilation of this new product will provide the most accurate depiction of the vertical distribution of cloud water ever produced at the high spatial and temporal resolution needed for short term weather analyses and forecasts.
Smith, William L., Jr.↗
Characterizing the Vertical Processes of Ozone in Colorado's Front Range Using the GSFC Ozone Dial
Although characterizing the interactions of ozone throughout the entire troposphere are important for health and climate processes, there is a lack of routine measurements of vertical profiles within the United States. In order to monitor this lower ozone more effectively, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center TROPospheric OZone DIfferential Absorption Lidar (GSFC TROPOZDIAL) has been developed and validated within the Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet). Two scientifically interesting ozone episodes are presented that were observed during the 2014 Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality (DISCOVER AQ) campaign at Ft. Collins,Colorado.The first case study, occurring between 22-23 July 2014, indicates enhanced concentrations of ozone at Ft. Collins during nighttime hours, which was due to the complex recirculation of ozone within the foothills of the Rocky Mountain region. Although quantifying the ozone increase a loft during recirculation episodes has been historically difficult, results indicate that an increase of 20 -30 ppbv of ozone at the Ft. Collins site has been attributed to this recirculation. The second case, occurring between Aug 4-8th 2014, characterizes a dynamical exchange of ozone between the stratosphere and the troposphere. This case, along with seasonal model parameters from previous years, is used to estimate the stratospheric contribution to the Rocky Mountain region. Results suggest that a large amount of stratospheric air is residing in the troposphere in the summertime near Ft. Collins, CO. The results also indicate that warmer tropopauses are correlated with an increase in stratospheric air below the tropopause in the Rocky Mountain Region.
Sullivan, John T.↗
Physical properties of asteroids from radar observations
The basic experimental strategies of asteroid radar astronomy are summarized and new information based on recent radar observations about asteroid surface properties is presented. Particular attention is given to the use of radar techniques for constraining asteroid shapes and pole directions. The geometric relationship between a rotating asteroid and its radar echo power spectrum is analyzed.
Ostro, S. J.↗
On the Efficient Allocation of Resources for Hypothesis Evaluation in Machine Learning: A Statistical Approach
In this report we consider a decision-making problem of selecting a strategy from a set of alternatives on the basis of incomplete information (e.g., a finite number of observations): the system can, however, gather additional information at some cost.
machine learning↗
Land and Atmosphere Near-Real-Time Capability for Earth Observing System
The past decade has seen a rapid increase in availability and usage of near-real-time data from satellite sensors. The EOSDIS (Earth Observing System Data and Information System) was not originally designed to provide data with sufficiently low latency to satisfy the requirements for near-real-time users. The EOS (Earth Observing System) instruments aboard the Terra, Aqua and Aura satellites make global measurements daily, which are processed into higher-level 'standard' products within 8-40 hours of observation and then made available to users, primarily earth science researchers. However, applications users, operational agencies, and even researchers desire EOS products in near-real-time to support research and applications, including numerical weather and climate prediction and forecasting, monitoring of natural hazards, ecological/invasive species, agriculture, air quality, disaster relief and homeland security. These users often need data much sooner than routine science processing allows, usually within 3 hours, and are willing to trade science product quality for timely access. While Direct Broadcast provides more timely access to data, it does not provide global coverage. In 2002, a joint initiative between NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration), NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), and the DOD (Department of Defense) was undertaken to provide data from EOS instruments in near-real-time. The NRTPE (Near Real Time Processing Effort) provided products within 3 hours of observation on a best-effort basis. As the popularity of these near-real-time products and applications grew, multiple near-real-time systems began to spring up such as the Rapid Response System. In recognizing the dependence of customers on this data and the need for highly reliable and timely data access, NASA's Earth Science Division sponsored the Earth Science Data and Information System Project (ESDIS)-led development of a new near-real-time system called LANCE (Land, Atmosphere Near-Real-Time Capability for EOS) in 2009. LANCE consists of special processing elements, co-located with selected EOSDIS data centers and processing facilities. A primary goal of LANCE is to bring multiple near-real-time systems under one umbrella, offering commonality in data access, quality control, and latency. LANCE now processes and distributes data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) instruments within 3 hours of satellite observation. The Rapid Response System and the Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) capabilities will be incorporated into LANCE in 2011. LANCE maintains a central website to facilitate easy access to data and user services. LANCE products are extensively tested and compared with science products before being made available to users. Each element also plans to implement redundant network, power and server infrastructure to ensure high availability of data and services. Through the user registration system, users are informed of any data outages and when new products or services will be available for access. Building on a significant investment by NASA in developing science algorithms and products, LANCE creates products that have a demonstrated utility for applications requiring near-real-time data. From lower level data products such as calibrated geolocated radiances to higher-level products such as sea ice extent, snow cover, and cloud cover, users have integrated LANCE data into forecast models and decision support systems. The table above shows the current near-real-time product categories by instrument. The ESDIS Project continues to improve the LANCE system and use the experience gained through practice to seek adjustments to improve the quality and performance of the system. For example, anGC-compliant Web Map Service (WMS) will be added shortly that will allow users to download geo-referenced MODIS images for arbitrary bounding boxes. Further, an OGC-compliant Web Coverage Service (WCS) will be added later this year that will expedite user access to arbitrary data subsets or re-formatted products. AIRS images are now served through WMS and available in multiple formats (PNG, GeoTIFF, KMZ). NASA has established a LANCE User Working Group to steer the development of the system and create a forum for sharing ideas and experiences that are expected to further improve the LANCE capabilities. The LANCE system has proved a success by satisfying the growing needs of the applications and operational communities for land and atmosphere data in near-real-time. NASA's Earth Sciences Division was able to leverage existing science research capabilities to provide the near-real-time community with products and imagery that support monitoring of disasters in a timely manner.
Murphy, Kevin J.↗
An Overview of the EOS Data Dissemination Systems
The Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) is the primary data system serving the broad-scope of NASA s Earth Observing System (EOS) program and a significant portion of the "heritage" Earth science data. EOSDIS was designed to support the Earth sciences within NASA s Science Mission Directorate (previously the Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) and Mission to Planet Earth). The EOS Program was NASA s contribution to the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) enacted by Congress in 1990 as part of the Global Change Act. ESE s objective was to launch a series of missions to help answer fundamental global change questions such as "How is Earth changing?" and "What are the consequences for life on Earth?" resulting support of this objective, EOSDIS distributes a wide variety of data to a diverse community.
Ramapriyan, H.K.↗
How NASA is Building a Petabyte Scale Geospatial Archive in the Cloud
NASA's Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) is working towards a vision of a cloud-based, highly-flexible, ingest, archive, management, and distribution system for its ever-growing and evolving data holdings. This free and open source system, Cumulus, is emerging from its prototyping stages and is poised to make a huge impact on how NASA manages and disseminates its Earth science data. This talk outlines the motivation for this work, present the achievements and hurdles of the past 18 months and charts a course for the future expansion of Cumulus. We explore not just the technical, but also the socio-technical challenges that we face in evolving a system of this magnitude into the cloud. The NASA EOSDIS archive is currently at nearly 30 PBs and will grow to over 300PBs in the coming years. We've presented progress on this effort at AWS re:Invent and the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting in 2017 and hope to have the opportunity to share with FOSS4G attendees information on the availability of the open sourced software and how NASA intends on making its Earth Observing Geospatial data available for free to the public in the cloud.
NASA Archive↗
Standards and Best Practices - Two NASA Examples
Formal international standards as well as promotion of community or recommended practices have their place in ensuring "FAIRness" of data. Data management in NASA's Earth Observation System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) has benefited from both of these avenues to a significant extent. The purpose of this paper is to present one example of each of these, which promote (re)usability. The first is an ISO standard for specifying preservation content from Earth observation missions. The work on this started in 2011, informally within the Earth Science Information Partners (ESIP) in the US, while the European Space Agency (ESA) was leading an effort on Long-Term Data Preservation (LTDP). Resulting from the ESIP discussions was NASA's Preservation Content Specification, which was applied in 2012 as a requirement for NASA's new missions. ESA's Preserved Data Set Content (PDSC) document was codified into a document adopted by the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS). It was recognized that it would be useful to combine PCS and PDSC into an ISO standard to ensure consistency in data preservation on a broader international scale. This standard, numbered ISO 19165-2 has been under development since mid-2017. The second is an example of developing recommendations for "best practices" within more limited (still fairly broad) communities. A Data Product Developers' Guide (DPDG) is currently being developed by one of NASA's Earth Science Data System Working Groups (ESDSWGs). It is for use by developers of products to be derived from Earth observation data to improve product (re)usability. One of the challenges in developing the guide is the fact that there are already many applicable standards and guides. The relevant information needs to be selected and expressed in a succinct manner, with appropriate pointers to references. The DPDG aims to compile the most applicable parts of earlier guides into a single document outlining the typical development process for Earth Science data products. Standards and best practices formally endorsed by the Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS) Standards Office (ESO), outputs from ESDSWGs (e.g., Dataset Interoperability Working Group, and Data Quality Working Group), and recommendations from Distributed Active Archive Centers and data producers are emphasized.
Ramapriyan, Hampapuram↗
Monte Carlo inversion of seismic data
The analytic solution to the linear inverse problem provides estimates of the uncertainty of the solution in terms of standard deviations of corrections to a particular solution, resolution of parameter adjustments, and information distribution among the observations. It is shown that Monte Carlo inversion, when properly executed, can provide all the same kinds of information for nonlinear problems. Proper execution requires a relatively uniform sampling of all possible models. The expense of performing Monte Carlo inversion generally requires strategies to improve the probability of finding passing models. Such strategies can lead to a very strong bias in the distribution of models examined unless great care is taken in their application.
Wiggins, R. A.↗
The Arya Crop Yield Forecasting Algorithm: Application to the Main Wheat Exporting Countries
Wheat is the most important commodity traded in the international food market. Thus, accurate and timely information on wheat production can help mitigate food price fluctuations. Within the existing operational regional and global scale agricultural monitoring systems that provide information on global crop yield and area forecasts, there are still fundamental gaps: #1. Lack of quantitative Earth Observation (EO) derived crop information, #2. Lack of global but detailed (national or subnational level) and timely crop production forecasts and #3. Lack of information on forecast uncertainties. In this study we present the Agriculture Remotely-sensed Yield Algorithm (ARYA) an EO-based method, advancing the state of EO data application and usage (addressing gap #1) to forecast wheat yield. The algorithm is based on the evolution of the Difference Vegetation Index (DVI) using MODIS data at 1km resolution and the Growing Degree Days (GDD) from reanalysis data. Additionally, we explore how Land Surface Temperature (LST) can be included into the model and whether this parameter adds any value to the model performance when combined with the optical information. ARYA is implemented at the national and subnational level to forecast winter wheat yield in the main wheat exporting countries of US, Russia, Ukraine, France, Germany, Australia and Argentina from 2001 to 2019 (covering over 70% of wheat exports globally) in a timely manner by providing daily forecasts (addressing gap #2). The results show that ARYA provides yield estimations with RMSE’s within 0.3 ± 0.1 t/ha at national level and 0.6 ± 0,1 t/ha at subnational level after Day Of the Year (DOY) 140 (mid May) in the Northern Hemisphere and DOY 280 (beginning of October) in the Southern Hemisphere. This means that ARYA can provide crop yield estimates of wheat yield with 5-15 % error at national and 7-20 % error at subnational level starting from 2 to 2.5 months prior to harvest.
Agriculture↗
S'COOL Takes Students to New Heights
Students Cloud Observations On-Line (S'COOL) is a hands-on educational project which supports NASA's Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) satellite instrument; part of the Earth Science Enterprise studying our planet. S'COOL meets science, math, technology and geography Standards of Learning (SOLs) as students observe clouds and related weather conditions, compute data and locate vital information while obtaining ground truth observations for the CERES instrument. These observations can then be used to help validate the CERES measurements; particularly detection of clear sky from space. Participants to date have been in 20 states and 5 countries and have reported great interest and learning among their students. Many have used this project as a stepping stone to further learning in other areas of Earth Science; and to do more with the Internet in the classroom. Satellite images and clues to their interpretation are used on the website ( http://asd-www.larc.nasa.gov/SCOOL/) . Background information is also given on Earth's Radiation Budget and it s importance in understanding our climate. Students can retrieve both their observations and the corresponding satellite data and participate in the validation efforts. A number of suggestions for studies to be done with the data, and related lesson plans, are available. Teachers can tailor this project to the appropriate level and subject matter needed for their students. The recommended grade level is 4th through 12th grade. The project is now open to new participants. We particularly seek schools in more remote areas, to obtain wider geographic coverage for ground truth data; so the project has been designed to use, but not require, computer technology. AGU participants attending the S'COOL presentation will be given a handout describing the project. Material for introducing the project in the classroom will be demonstrated in a participatory style.
Green, Carolyn J.↗
Control and Observation in Distributed Environments
This viewgraph presentation provides information on the ideas surrounding the control and observation of a distributed computing environment based on the design of the electrical power grid. The implementation of a reliable control system for the management of the computational grid is crucial. Different architectures have been suggested.
Smith, Warren↗
Extending Aquatic Spectral Information with the First Radiometric IR-B Field Observations
Planetary radiometric observations enable remote sensing of biogeochemical parameters to describe spatiotemporal variability in aquatic ecosystems. For approximately the last half century, the science of aquatic radiometry has established a knowledge base using primarily, but not exclusively, visible wavelengths. Scientific subdisciplines supporting aquatic radiometry have evolved hardware, software, and procedures to maximize competency for exploiting visible wavelength information. This perspective culminates with the science requirement that visible spectral resolution must be continually increased to extract more information. Other sources of information, meanwhile, remain underexploited, particularly information from nonvisible wavelengths. Herein, absolute radiometry is used to evaluate spectral limits for deriving and exploiting aquatic data products, specifically the normalized water-leaving radiance, Γ(λ), and its derivative products. Radiometric observations presented herein are quality assured for individual wavebands, and spectral verification is conducted by analyzing celestial radiometric results, comparing agreement of above- and in-water observations at applicable wavelengths, and evaluating consistency with bio-optical models and optical theory. The results presented include the first absolute radiometric field observations of Γ(λ) within the IR-B spectral domain (i.e. spanning 1400–3000 nm), which indicate that IR-B signals confer greater and more variable flux than formerly ascribed. Black-pixel processing, a routine correction in satellite and in situ aquatic radiometry wherein a spectrum is offset corrected relative to a nonvisible waveband (often IR-B or a shorter legacy waveband) set to a null value, is shown to degrade aquatic spectra and derived biogeochemical parameters.
aquatic optics↗
MISR Geometric Parameters (MIB2GEOP_V1)
The MISR instrument consists of nine pushbroom cameras which measure radiance in four spectral bands. Global coverage is achieved in nine days. The cameras are arranged with one camera pointing toward the nadir, four cameras pointing forward and four cameras pointing aftward. It takes 7 minutes for all nine cameras to view the same surface location. The view angles relative to the surface reference ellipsoid, are 0, 26.1, 45.6, 60.0, and 70.5 degrees. The spectral band shapes are nominally gaussian, centered at 443, 555, 670, and 865 nm. The MISR Level 1B2 Geometric Parameters data product is part of the georectified radiance product. It contains the geometric parameters which measure the sun and view angles at the reference ellipsoid. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=2000-02-24; Stop_Date=] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=17.6 km; Longitude_Resolution=17.6 km; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=10 km - < 50 km or approximately .09 degree - < .5 degree; Temporal_Resolution=about 15 orbits/day].
SOLAR AZIMUTH ANGLE↗
Precursor Analysis Report: Industroyer2 and Wiper Malware Targeting Ukrainian Energy Provider 2022
The Industroyer2 and Wiper Malware Targeting Ukrainian Energy Provider 2022 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the Industroyer2 cyber attack and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. An adversary attempted to cause a blackout in Ukraine in April 2022 by using the Industroyer2 malware against a regional Ukrainian energy provider. The adversary targeted eight high-voltage electrical substations and utilized the malware in tandem with disk wipers for Windows, Linux, and Solaris operating systems in an attempt to make response and recovery efforts more difficult. The adversary reused a piece of the original Industroyer malware designed to open circuit breakers and de-energize target substations. The adversary gained initial access to the victim’s enterprise network through unknown means in February 2022 and was able to perform reconnaissance, pivot to the operations network, and reside in the system for at least 51 days. This gave the adversary a detailed understanding of the environment and allowed them to customize the Industroyer2 malware to the victim’s operations network. However, defenders detected and stopped the attack before the adversary could achieve their intended impact. Had the Industroyer2 attack been successful, it could have caused a blackout for more than two million people during the early stages of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Researchers and analysts identified 22 unique techniques (used in a sequence of 31 steps) utilized during the attack with a total of 297 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Twenty-three of the identified techniques used during the Industroyer2 cyber attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 224 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 122 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 51 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗