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Results for “Predictive models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 667 records · Page 37
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1988

Numerical prediction experiments related to the summer 1980 U.S. heat wave

The GLA (Goddard Laboratory for Atmosphere) fourth-order model predictions of the summer 1980 heat wave are examined to assess the skill of the model in numerically forecasting the initiation of the heat wave and the sensitivity of the model predictions to initial conditions and boundary forcing. Results of experiments indicate that the model predictions are sensitive to the initial conditions. The sensitivity of the model to anomalous boundary forcing is found to be generally larger than its sensitivity to initial conditions at extended ranges. The results of the study suggest that models may be useful in forecasting similar events if adequate determinations of the evolving boundary forcing can be made in real time.

Atlas, R.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Comparison of Acoustic Impedance Eduction Techniques for Locally-Reacting Liners

Typical acoustic liners used in current aircraft inlets and aft-fan ducts consist of some type of perforated facesheet bonded to a honeycomb core. A number of techniques for determining the acoustic impedance of these locallyreacting liners have been developed over the last five decades. In addition, a number of models have been developed to predict the acoustic impedance of locallyreacting liners in the presence of grazing flow, and to use that information together with aeroacoustic propagation codes to assess the noise absorption provided by these liners. These prediction models have incorporated the results from databases acquired with specific impedance eduction techniques. Thus, while these prediction models are acceptable for liners that are similar to those tested in these databases, their application to new liner configurations must be viewed with caution. The primary purpose of this paper is to provide a comparison of impedance eduction techniques that have been implemented at various aerospace research laboratories in the United States (NASA Langley Research Center, General Electric Aircraft Engines, B. F. Goodrich and Boeing). A secondary purpose is to provide data for liner configurations that extend the porosity range beyond that which has been previously used in common aircraft engine nacelles. Two sets of liners were designed to study the effects of three parameters: perforate hole diameter, facesheet thickness and porosity. These two sets of liners were constructed for testing in each of the laboratories listed above. The first set of liners was designed to fit into the NASA Langley and Boeing test facilities. The second set was designed to fit into the General Electric Aircraft Engines and B. F. Goodrich test facilities. By using the same parent material, both sets of liners were identical to within the limits of material and fabrication variability. Baseline data were obtained in the normal incidence impedance tubes at NASA Langley and B. F. Goodrich. The results were found to compare extremely well. The samples were then tested in the grazing flow ducts of each of the four laboratories. Perhaps the most significant result of these comparisons is that the educed acoustic resistances for the liners used in this study increase as the mean flow profile is modified from uniform to 3-D shear. This realization has demonstrated the need for an frequency-dependent impedance eduction technique that incorporates 3-D shear flow and is efficient.

Jones, M. G.↗
NASA NTRS1989

A model for prediction of STOVL ejector dynamics

A semi-empirical control-volume approach to ejector modeling for transient performance prediction is presented. This new approach is motivated by the need for a predictive real-time ejector sub-system simulation for Short Take-Off Verticle Landing (STOVL) integrated flight and propulsion controls design applications. Emphasis is placed on discussion of the approximate characterization of the mixing process central to thrust augmenting ejector operation. The proposed ejector model suggests transient flow predictions are possible with a model based on steady-flow data. A practical test case is presented to illustrate model calibration.

Drummond, Colin K.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigating performance and variability of NIF ICF experiments with deep learning

The parameter space involved in designing an inertial confinement fusion shot at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) is massively multi-dimensional and the cost of a single shot makes a comprehensive set of sensitivity studies in the laboratory impractical. The use of machine learning to overcome these challenges has gained popularity and has had several successful applications by the scientific community. We extend on these efforts by training a neural network (NN) on information about the experimental design, engineering elements, and drive asymmetry to predict with uncertainty the neutron yield of an experiment. We find the measured and model predicted values are in good agreement, with an R 2 value of 0.91 for a randomly selected test dataset. Almost all the predicted 95% credible intervals contain the corresponding measured value for both training and test datasets. We identify correlations picked up by the NN between the shot design, yield, and variability and use them to motivate shot sensitivity studies. The first shot to exceed the Lawson-like ignition criteria (N210808) was conducted at the NIF and subsequent shots studied the design’s robustness. In a follow-up shot to N210808, our model predicts capsule quality to be the main performance degradation mechanism that prevented the shot from repeating previous performance levels. Shot N221204 was the first shot to exceed a target energy gain of 1. Our model predicts increased yield with reduced coast time for a N221204 study and greater variability for designs with lower peak powers at constant yield. The model’s fast prediction speed and uncertainty prediction are useful for identifying interesting design paths that could warrant further investigation with conventional simulations to search for robust high yield designs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1990

Low-dimensional modelling and prediction in fluid dynamics

Research into the development of a simplified, low-dimensional, state-variable model for a fluid dynamics system is discussed. The model would be capable of predicting the state of the system in as nearly real time as possible and would be suitable for implementation in a control loop. It is noted that state-variable modeling has an advantage for real-time health monitoring and control application over the Navier-Stokes equations since the latter require an enormous amount of real time. In this study, a dynamic procedure is developed for modeling and prediction using the CFD data generated for this model centerbody-combustor configuration. Some experiences with the NASA data available for the SSME are also reported. Application of this procedure to pressure and velocity measurements in an actual wind-tunnel experiment is described, and the applicability of the approach to health monitoring is considered.

Ghia, U.↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Integrated Medical Model: A Probabilistic Simulation Model for Predicting In-Flight Medical Risks

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that uses simulation to predict mission medical risk. Given a specific mission and crew scenario, medical events are simulated using Monte Carlo methodology to provide estimates of resource utilization, probability of evacuation, probability of loss of crew, and the amount of mission time lost due to illness. Mission and crew scenarios are defined by mission length, extravehicular activity (EVA) schedule, and crew characteristics including: sex, coronary artery calcium score, contacts, dental crowns, history of abdominal surgery, and EVA eligibility. The Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) houses the model inputs for one hundred medical conditions using in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical data. Inputs include incidence, event durations, resource utilization, and crew functional impairment. Severity of conditions is addressed by defining statistical distributions on the dichotomized best and worst-case scenarios for each condition. The outcome distributions for conditions are bounded by the treatment extremes of the fully treated scenario in which all required resources are available and the untreated scenario in which no required resources are available. Upon occurrence of a simulated medical event, treatment availability is assessed, and outcomes are generated depending on the status of the affected crewmember at the time of onset, including any pre-existing functional impairments or ongoing treatment of concurrent conditions. The main IMM outcomes, including probability of evacuation and loss of crew life, time lost due to medical events, and resource utilization, are useful in informing mission planning decisions. To date, the IMM has been used to assess mission-specific risks with and without certain crewmember characteristics, to determine the impact of eliminating certain resources from the mission medical kit, and to design medical kits that maximally benefit crew health while meeting mass and volume constraints.

Risk Analysis↗
NASA NTRS1974

Partial equilibrium model for predicting concentration of CO in combustion

A simple kinetic model, based upon the concept of partial equilibrium, is developed for predicting carbon monoxide concentrations in such steady-flow hydrocarbon-air combustion systems as gas-turbine combustors. The only two kinetic constraints used in the model are on the rate of change of the total number of gaseous particles in the system, and on the rate of change of the CO concentration. The accuracy of the model is verified by comparison with experimental results obtained by burning kerosene with air in a 130,000 Btu/hr atmospheric-pressure steady-flow burner. Burnt-gas cooling rates of 1,000,000 K/sec, about the magnitude encountered in the dilution zone of gas-turbine combustors, were obtained with a compact water-cooled heat exchanger. Good agreement between measured CO concentrations and the values predicted by the partial-equilibrium model was obtained.

Morr, A. R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Designer's unified cost model

A conceptual and preliminary designers' cost prediction model has been initiated. The model will provide a technically sound method for evaluating the relative cost of different composite structural designs, fabrication processes, and assembly methods that can be compared to equivalent metallic parts or assemblies. The feasibility of developing cost prediction software in a modular form for interfacing with state of the art preliminary design tools and computer aided design programs is being evaluated. The goal of this task is to establish theoretical cost functions that relate geometric design features to summed material cost and labor content in terms of process mechanics and physics. The output of the designers' present analytical tools will be input for the designers' cost prediction model to provide the designer with a data base and deterministic cost methodology that allows one to trade and synthesize designs with both cost and weight as objective functions for optimization. The approach, goals, plans, and progress is presented for development of COSTADE (Cost Optimization Software for Transport Aircraft Design Evaluation).

Freeman, William T.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Steam chugging analysis in single-vent vapor injection

A complete cycle of the periodic steam chugging phenomenon is analyed. Steam velocity and pressure variations in the vent are described by one-dimensional conservation equations. This is coupled either to the water slug model when water is in the vent, or, the infinite pool spherical bubble model at the vent exit during bubble growth. An isolated spherical bubble model is used for computing the collapse pressures. Comparisons of the model predictions with the UCLA 1/12-scale and the Japan 1/6-scale data indicate that the vent-pipe model predicts the vent-clearing times and the bubble growth times well. In addition, the predicted maximum chugging heights compared well with those measured in the Japan data. On bubble collapse pressures, the comparison with the spherical bubble model predictions is only fair. The model generally overpredicts the magnitude of the spikes. On examining the effects of pool subcooling and steam mass flux, general agreement is found between the predicted trends and those measured.

Lee, C. K. B.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) MMRTG In-Flight: A Power Update

The MSL Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG) was fueled on October 28, 2008 by the Department Of Energy (DOE) in preparation for a late 2009 launch. Shortly after, the MSL launch was delayed approximately 2 years until 2011. The fueled MMRTG was placed in storage to await the new date for liftoff. Occasional measurements of the MMRTG's power output were taken and compared with power predictions that pre-dated fueling. An error in the predictive models was quickly recognized and remedied. The predictions, while improved, carried significant uncertainty. This uncertainty did not deter the launch of MSL, but did alter the planned mission on the surface of Mars. Once launched, the MSL spacecraft provided a hi-fidelity telemetry stream measuring the generator's electrical and thermal performance. These data were used to update the predictive models and a new prediction of the performance of the MMRTG on the surface of Mars was run just before Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) at Mars. The MSL MMRTG is working extremely well, providing power above predictions and operating within its flight allowable temperature limits. The generator was producing approximately 114 W at the beginning of the surface mission. This paper will elaborate on power modeling for the MSL MMRTG along with a review of some of the data recorded from the MSL cruise to Mars, EDL, and the early days of the surface mission.

thermoelectric generator↗
NASA NTRS2013

Community-wide Validation of Geospace Model Ground Magnetic Field Perturbation Predictions to Support Model Transition to Operations

In this paper we continue the community-wide rigorous modern space weather model validation efforts carried out within GEM, CEDAR and SHINE programs. In this particular effort, in coordination among the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), modelers, and science community, we focus on studying the models' capability to reproduce observed ground magnetic field fluctuations, which are closely related to geomagnetically induced current phenomenon. One of the primary motivations of the work is to support NOAA SWPC in their selection of the next numerical model that will be transitioned into operations. Six geomagnetic events and 12 geomagnetic observatories were selected for validation.While modeled and observed magnetic field time series are available for all 12 stations, the primary metrics analysis is based on six stations that were selected to represent the high-latitude and mid-latitude locations. Events-based analysis and the corresponding contingency tables were built for each event and each station. The elements in the contingency table were then used to calculate Probability of Detection (POD), Probability of False Detection (POFD) and Heidke Skill Score (HSS) for rigorous quantification of the models' performance. In this paper the summary results of the metrics analyses are reported in terms of POD, POFD and HSS. More detailed analyses can be carried out using the event by event contingency tables provided as an online appendix. An online interface built at CCMC and described in the supporting information is also available for more detailed time series analyses.

MAGNETIC↗
NASA NTRS2016

Community-Wide Validation of Geospace Model Local K-Index Predictions to Support Model Transition to Operations

We present the latest result of a community-wide space weather model validation effort coordinated among the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), model developers, and the broader science community. Validation of geospace models is a critical activity for both building confidence in the science results produced by the models and in assessing the suitability of the models for transition to operations. Indeed, a primary motivation of this work is supporting NOAA/SWPCs effort to select a model or models to be transitioned into operations. Our validation efforts focus on the ability of the models to reproduce a regional index of geomagnetic disturbance, the local K-index. Our analysis includes six events representing a range of geomagnetic activity conditions and six geomagnetic observatories representing midlatitude and high-latitude locations. Contingency tables, skill scores, and distribution metrics are used for the quantitative analysis of model performance. We consider model performance on an event-by-event basis, aggregated over events, at specific station locations, and separated into high-latitude and midlatitude domains. A summary of results is presented in this report, and an online tool for detailed analysis is available at the CCMC.

Glocer, A.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Solar Wind Fluctuations and Their Consequences on the Magnetosphere

Efforts have been made to extract the physical meaning of each term in our prediction model of the Dst index using the solar wind as the only input. The work has been published Journal of Geophysical Research (Temerin and Li, 21002). We found different terms in the model representing different current in the magnetospheric system and each current has different rise and decay times, with the symmetric ring current the slowest, then the partial ring current, then the tail current. We also have been trying to understand the physical meaning of the diffusion coefficient used in our prediction model of relativistic electron fluxes at geostationary orbit. The model reproduced the observations of MeV electron flux variations well, the diffusion coefficient had be assumed only die to local magnetic field fluctuations, leading to its 10th power dependence on the L. We have studied the theoretical derivation of the diffusion coefficient and we believe that the effect electric field fluctuations at smaller L could become more significant. We have expanded our previous radiation belt electron prediction model, which predicted MeV electron geosynchronous orbit based on solar wind measurements, to predict MeV electrons inside geosynchronous orbit. The model results are compared with measurements from Polar/CEPPAD. Prediction efficiencies of 0.56 and 0.54, respectively, at L=6 and L=4, have been achieved over the entire year of 1998. This work wa reported at 2003 Fall AGU and has been accepted for publication in Space Weather (Barker et al., 2005). We also have used simultaneous measurements of the upstream solar wind and of energetic electrons at geosynchronous orbit to analyze the response of electrons over a very wide energy range, 50 keV-6MeV, to solar wind variations. Enhancements of energetic electron fluxes over this whole energy range are modulated by the solar wind speed and the polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). The solar wind speed seems to be a dominant controlling parameter for electrons of all energy. This work has been published in Space Weather (Li et al., 2005).

Li, Xin-Lin↗
NASA NTRS1989

Results of inphase axial-torsional fatigue experiments on 304 stainless steel

A series of axial-torsional, inphase, strain-controlled, low-cycle fatigue tests were performed at room temperature on tubular specimens of 304 stainless steel. The program was conducted in cooperation with the task group on multiaxial fatigue research of ASTM committee E-09. The objective was to quantify the variability in multiaxial test results among several laboratories. Only included is data which was generated at the NASA Lewis Research Center's High Temperature Fatigue and Structures Laboratory. The experimental equipment and procedures used are described. The tubular specimens were polished on the outer surface to aid in the use of a cellulose film surface replication technique for crack detection. However, cracking initiated predominantly on the internal surface for all specimens. Honing of the bore of the tubular specimens lessened but did not entirely eliminate this problem. The observed fatigue lives are compared with lives calculated from three multiaxial life models. Constants for the life prediction models were obtained from uniaxial and torsional tests performed on the same heat of material. The observed fatigue lives agreed with calculated lives to within a factor of two for all but one of the life prediction models.

Bonacuse, Peter J.↗
NASA NTRS1974

A model and predictive scale of passenger ride discomfort

A model to define the interrelationship of the various factors (vibratory and nonvibratory) important to passenger comfort, in realistic transport vehicle vibration environments was developed. The model represents: (1) a framework for the investigation of comfort within diverse transportation vehicles; (2) a mechanism for the development of a scale of comfort; (3) a mechanism through which design criteria can be obtained for improving the rideability of current and future transportation vehicles; and (4) a tool for obtaining information for the maximization of passenger ride quality, based upon sociological and psychological information. The application of the model is based upon the computational steps necessary for derivation of the comfort scale. The emphasis within the scale is upon the summation of comfort units; the summation being obtained through the use of appropriately determined factors, both within and between axes.

Dempsey, T. K.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The use of models to predict potential contamination aboard orbital vehicles

A model of fungal growth on air-exposed, nonnutritive solid surfaces, developed for utilization aboard orbital vehicles is presented. A unique feature of this testable model is that the development of a fungal mycelium can facilitate its own growth by condensation of water vapor from its environment directly onto fungal hyphae. The fungal growth rate is limited by the rate of supply of volatile nutrients and fungal biomass is limited by either the supply of nonvolatile nutrients or by metabolic loss processes. The model discussed is structurally simple, but its dynamics can be quite complex. Biofilm accumulation can vary from a simple linear increase to sustained exponential growth, depending on the values of the environmental variable and model parameters. The results of the model are consistent with data from aquatic biofilm studies, insofar as the two types of systems are comparable. It is shown that the model presented is experimentally testable and provides a platform for the interpretation of observational data that may be directly relevant to the question of growth of organisms aboard the proposed Space Station.

Boraas, Martin E.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Hindlimb unloading of growing rats: a model for predicting skeletal changes during space flight

A model that uses hindlimb unloading of rats was developed to study the consequences of skeletal unloading and reloading as occurs during and following space flight. Studies using the model were initiated two decades ago and further developed at National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-Ames Research Center. The model mimics some aspects of exposure to microgravity by removing weightbearing loads from the hindquarters and producing a cephalic fluid shift. Unlike space flight, the forelimbs remain loaded in the model, providing a useful internal control to distinguish between the local and systemic effects of hindlimb unloading. Rats that are hindlimb unloaded by tail traction gain weight at the same rate as pairfed controls, and glucocorticoid levels are not different from controls, suggesting that systemic stress is minimal. Unloaded bones display reductions in cancellous osteoblast number, cancellous mineral apposition rate, trabecular bone volume, cortical periosteal mineralization rate, total bone mass, calcium content, and maturation of bone mineral relative to controls. Subsequent studies reveal that these changes also occur in rats exposed to space flight. In hindlimb unloaded rats, bone formation rates and masses of unloaded bones decline relative to controls, while loaded bones do not change despite a transient reduction in serum 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D (1,25D) concentrations. Studies using the model to evaluate potential countermeasures show that 1,25D, growth hormone, dietary calcium, alendronate, and muscle stimulation modify, but do not completely correct, the suppression of bone growth caused by unloading, whereas continuous infusion of transforming growth factor-beta2 or insulin-like growth factor-1 appears to protect against some of the bone changes caused by unloading. These results emphasize the importance of local as opposed to systemic factors in the skeletal response to unloading, and reveal the pivotal role that osteoblasts play in the response to gravitational loading. The hindlimb unloading model provides a unique opportunity to evaluate in detail the physiological and cellular mechanisms of the skeletal response to weightbearing loads, and has proven to be an effective model for space flight.

Non-NASA Center↗