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At least 667 records · Page 37

Decomposition of the Mean Squared Error and NSE Performance Criteria: Implications for Improving Hydrological Modelling

The mean squared error (MSE) and the related normalization, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), are the two criteria most widely used for calibration and evaluation of hydrological models with observed data. Here, we present a diagnostically interesting decomposition of NSE (and hence MSE), which facilitates analysis of the relative importance of its different components in the context of hydrological modelling, and show how model calibration problems can arise due to interactions among these components. The analysis is illustrated by calibrating a simple conceptual precipitation-runoff model to daily data for a number of Austrian basins having a broad range of hydro-meteorological characteristics. Evaluation of the results clearly demonstrates the problems that can be associated with any calibration based on the NSE (or MSE) criterion. While we propose and test an alternative criterion that can help to reduce model calibration problems, the primary purpose of this study is not to present an improved measure of model performance. Instead, we seek to show that there are systematic problems inherent with any optimization based on formulations related to the MSE. The analysis and results have implications to the manner in which we calibrate and evaluate environmental models; we discuss these and suggest possible ways forward that may move us towards an improved and diagnostically meaningful approach to model performance evaluation and identification.

Gupta, Hoshin V.↗

QM Investigation of Rare Earth Ion Interactions with First Hydration Shell Waters and Protein-Based Coordination Models

Here, conventional methods for extracting rare earth metals (REMs) from mined mineral ores are inefficient, expensive, and environmentally damaging. Recent discovery of lanmodulin (LanM), a protein that coordinates REMs with high-affinity and selectivity over competing ions, provides inspiration for new REM refinement methods. Here, we used quantum mechanical (QM) methods to investigate trivalent lanthanide cation (Ln 3+ ) interactions with coordination systems representing bulk solvent water and protein binding sites. Energy decomposition analysis (EDA) showed differences in the energetic components of Ln 3+ interaction with representatives of solvent (water, H 2 O) and protein binding sites (acetate, CH 3 COO – ), highlighting the importance of accurate description of electrostatics and polarization in computational modeling of REM interactions with biological and bioinspired molecules. Relative binding free energies were obtained for Ln 3+ with coordination complexes originating from binding sites in PDB structures of a lanthanum binding peptide (PDB entry 7CCO) and LanM, with explicit consideration of the first hydration shell waters, according to quasi-chemical theory (QCT). Beyond the first shell, the bulk solvent environment was represented with an implicit continuum model. Ln 3+ interactions with (H 2 O) 9 and both binding site models became more favorable, moving down the periodic series. This trend was more pronounced with the protein binding site models than with water, resulting in affinity increasing with periodic number, except for the last REM, Lu 3+ , which bound less favorably than the preceding element, Yb 3+ . Using the truncated 7CCO binding site model, the magnitude and trend of the experimental Ln 3+ relative binding free energies for the whole 7CCO peptide were reproduced. Conversely, the previously reported experimental data for LanM show a preference for the earlier lanthanides; this is likely due to longer-range interactions and cooperative effects, which are not represented by the reduced models. Using the truncated 7CCO binding site model, the magnitude and trend of the experimental Ln 3+ relative binding free energies for the whole 7CCO peptide were reproduced. In contrast to the previously reported experimental data for LanM, the peptide preferentially binds the earlier lanthanides. This difference likely arises due to longer-range interactions and cooperative effects not represented by the peptide. Further investigation of Ln 3+ interactions with whole proteins using polarizable molecular mechanics models with explicit solvent is warranted to understand the influence of longer-ranged interactions, cooperativity, and bulk solvent. Nevertheless, the present work provides new insights into Ln 3+ interactions with biomolecules and presents an effective computational platform for designing specific single-site REM binding peptides more efficiently.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Evaluating the Impact of Chemical Complexity and Horizontal Resolution on Tropospheric Ozone Over the Conterminous US With a Global Variable Resolution Chemistry Model

A new configuration of the Community Earth System Model (CESM)/Community Atmosphere Model with full chemistry (CAM-chem) supporting the capability of horizontal mesh refinement through the use of the spectral element (SE) dynamical core is developed and called CESM/CAM-chem-SE. Horizontal mesh refinement in CESM/CAM-chem-SE is unique and novel in that pollutants such as ozone are accurately represented at human exposure relevant scales while also directly including global feedbacks. CESM/CAM-chem-SE with mesh refinement down to ∼14 km over the conterminous US (CONUS) is the beginning of the Multi-Scale Infrastructure for Chemistry and Aerosols (MUSICAv0). Here MUSICAv0 is evaluated and used to better understand how horizontal resolution and chemical complexity impact ozone and ozone precursors over CONUS as compared to measurements from five aircraft campaigns, which occurred in 2013. This field campaign analysis demonstrates the importance of using finer horizontal resolution to accurately simulate ozone precursors such as nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide. In general, the impact of using more complex chemistry on ozone and other oxidation products is more pronounced when using finer horizontal resolution where a larger number of chemical regimes are resolved. Large model biases for ozone near the surface remain in the Southeast US as compared to the aircraft observations even with updated chemistry and finer horizontal resolution. This suggests a need for adding the capability of replacing sections of global emission inventories with regional inventories, increasing the vertical resolution in the planetary boundary layer, and reducing model biases in meteorological variables such as temperature and clouds.

MUSICA↗

Enhanced Method Of Reduction Of Dynamical Models

Enhanced projection-and-assembly method is recent product of efforts to model mathematically dynamics of vibrations of large, flexible structures. In projection-and-assembly method modes contributing significantly to control input and output points selected at system (overall structure) level, then projected (in abstract mathematical sense) onto components of system. In enhanced version, static correction modes capture static contributions of those modes neglected in reduced-order model. Reduced models for suppressing vibrations of structures made more accurate.

Lee, Allan Y.↗

Refining water and carbon fluxes modeling in terrestrial ecosystems via plant hydraulics integration

Plant hydraulics substantially affects terrestrial water and carbon cycles by modulating water transport and carbon assimilation. Despite improved drought simulations in certain ecosystems through their integration into land surface models (LSMs), the broader application of plant hydraulics in diverse ecosystems and hydroclimates is still underexplored. Here, in this study, we implemented the recently developed Noah-Multiparameterization Land Surface Model (Noah-MP LSM) equipped with a plant hydraulics scheme (Noah-MP-PHS) across 40 FLUXNET sites globally. Employing the Shuffled Complex Evolution-University of Arizona (SCE-UA) auto-calibration algorithm, we optimized key plant hydraulics parameters for these sites spanning eight vegetation types in both arid and humid climates. Noah-MP-PHS significantly improves the simulation of evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP) by better representing atmospheric and soil water stress compared to traditional soil hydraulic schemes (SHSs, such as Noah and CLM). The augmented Noah-MP-PHS models reduce surface flux overestimation and underestimation, exhibiting an average increase of 0.14 and 0.15 in Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) compared to Noah and CLM, respectively. The explicit consideration of plant capacitance in PHS reveals substantial deep-layer and nocturnal root water uptake especially under dry conditions. We employed eXplainable Machine learning (XML) to quantify the model’s relative sensitivity to newly introduced leaf-, stem and root-related parameters in PHS. The sensitivity analysis reveals a rise in root parameter importance and a decline in leaf and stem parameters as conditions shift from humid to arid. These findings indicate that as aridity states vary, the most influential parameters affecting surface fluxes variation may change in parameter calibration for PHS applications. Our findings underscore the importance of incorporating plant hydraulics into LSMs to enhance simulations of terrestrial water and carbon dynamics. These findings are crucial for understanding ecosystem responses to global climate changes and guide the broader application of PHS at larger scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Long-Term Evaluation of Remedial Technology Performance in the Laboratory: Multi-year Experimental Test Plan

An understanding of the long-term effectiveness of remediation technologies is central to sustainable environmental cleanup. Long-term experiments are valuable for reducing uncertainty and predicting remediation outcomes at scales required for regulatory compliance. However, these types of tests can be costly and challenging to interpret. Therefore, contaminated sites often rely on short-term laboratory experiments that may not account for the potentially significant effects of gradual, time- dependent processes governing contaminant retention, release, and species transformation. For example, short-term lab experiments (from months to a year) conducted with sediments from the unsaturated and saturated zones at the Hanford Site play an important role in initial evaluations of remediation technologies but cannot capture the full extent of time-dependent reactions, leaving uncertainties in field-scale deployment. Here, long-term testing will be conducted on select technologies based on their performance in short-term testing. The overall objective is to directly address the challenges described above by generating and analyzing data on long-term (2–10 years) efficacy of selected remediation technologies, integrating this understanding into models, and providing critical input for remediation planning, monitoring, and 5-year review cycles for field-implemented remedies. Specific objectives include: 1. Evaluating long-term efficiency of promising remedies under site-specific conditions. 2. Generating robust parameters for modeling, reducing uncertainty in predictive simulations. 3. Advancing integrated monitoring by combining geochemical and geophysical observations. 4. Informing field-scale implementation by incrementally advancing technologies, identifying failure mechanisms early, and prioritizing robust, cost-effective remedies. Through systematic evaluation of technologies in laboratory-scale column experiments, integrated monitoring, and modeling support, this project is designed to bolster confidence in the long-term robustness of selected technologies. The ultimate outcome is the identification and deployment of more reliable, cost-effective remedies that safeguard human health and the environment while reducing the uncertainties that have historically hindered cleanup progress at Hanford Site. An experimental approach was developed and initiated for long-term testing potentially up to 10 years. The table below summarizes the experimental approach developed for testing select technologies and presented in this multi-year experimental test plan.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of input gradient regularization on neural networks time-series forecasting of thermal power systems

This study proposes using neural networks, specifically gated recurrent unit (GRU), long-short-term memory (LSTM), and transformer networks, to improve control strategies in a 450 MW coal-fired power plant. However, neural networks face issues of becoming overly dependent on just a few variables to make predictions, which negatively impacts control decisions that rely on the model to determine the value of all manipulated variables. The paper introduces regularization techniques, including noise injection and input gradient regularization, during the training phase. Here, the work presents novel contributions in adapting neural networks to control industrial systems and applying regularization techniques from computer vision to industrial process control. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of input gradient regularization in reducing model dependence on subsets of variables, emphasizing the balance between fidelity and controllability. Further exploration is recommended, including the development of recurrent transformers, closed-loop control testing, and a sensitivity analysis on computer models to provide further insight.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

An analytical and experimental investigation of output feedback vs. linear quadratic regulator

This paper presents analytical and experimental comparison of three control laws for a laboratory structure designed to simulate large space structures. The first control law is the standard time invariant linear quadratic regulator with state estimation, which requires model reduction for practical implementation. This model reduction is associated with the so-called spillover instability. Two new simple direct output feedback control laws guaranteeing stability are proposed. One minimizes the maximum control force, and the other minimizes the same quadratic performance index as the linear quadratic regulator. The three control laws are found to give comparable performance for the modes retained in the reduced model. However, the standard linear quadratic regulator with state estimation provides almost no margin of stability for the unmodeled modes, while the simpler direct feedback laws provide significant stability margins to all modes. The analytical results were verified experimentally using a digital implementation of the control laws. Good agreement between the analytical predictions and experimental measurements was observed.

Martinovic, Zoran N.↗

Quantum Information for Fusion Energy Sciences (Final Technical Report)

The simulation of plasma dynamics is a critical area of Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) due to it’s usefulness in predicting, controlling, and confining plasmas in the context of potential fusion reactors. The simulation of plasmas is a computationally difficult problem in both classical and quantum physics, motivating investigation into the potential of quantum computers to simulate these systems. This project took several concrete steps towards this goal by developing tools for improving the control, characterization, and calibration of quantum gates on a superconducting quantum computer, developing error suppression and mitigation tools to reduce errors on the quantum computer, and utilizing these advancements to simulate reduced models of plasma dynamics on the quantum computer. In order to efficiently simulate plasma physics, an optimal control method which synthesizes, directly at the pulse level, any quantum gate on qubit and qutrit systems was developed. Using four superconducting transmon quantum processors at Rigetti and LLNL, it was demonstrated that any arbitrary quantum gate on qubits and qutrits could be implemented with high fidelity, leading to a significantly reduced length of a gate sequence. A problem of interest in FES is the nonlinear optical process of laser pulse compression within a plasma. Since quantum physics is linear, simulating nonlinear operations is not naturally feasible on a quantum computer, however it is possible to simulated a quantized version of the nonlinear process. A quantization approach to convert nonlinear wave-wave interaction problems to Hamiltonian simulation problems was developed and demonstrated using two qubits on a Rigetti device. In this experiment, a number of error suppression and mitigation techniques were investigated to determine how best to utilize the finite quantum resources. This study provides an example of how plasma problems may be solved on near-term, noisy quantum computing platforms and identified a promising set of techniques. Building on the insights of these experiments, the investigation turned to linear electron-plasma wave physics. A connection was identified between a local one-dimensional lattice spin model and linear wave phenomena, allowing a plasma physics problem to be efficiently mapped to the quantum computer. In this framework, reflection and transmission of plasma waves at a sharp boundary was studied, as well as the propagation of waves through an inhomogeneous plasma medium. In addition to the suite of error suppression and mitigation techniques developed, this experiment introduced the use of a digital-analog gate scheme designed to efficiently simulate the plasma Hamiltonian. With hardware available at the conclusion of the project, simulation at the scale of 9 qubits and 15 timesteps (60 entangling layers) was achieved.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Efficient calculation of self magnetic field, self-force, and self-inductance for electromagnetic coils with rectangular cross-section

Abstract For designing high-field electromagnets, the Lorentz force on coils needs to be computed in order to design suitable support structures, and the inductance should be computed to evaluate the stored energy and dynamics. Also, the magnetic field and its variation inside the conductor is of interest for computing stress and strain, and due to superconducting quench limits. For these force, inductance, energy, and internal field calculations, the coils cannot be naively approximated as infinitesimally thin filaments due to divergences when the source and evaluation points coincide, so more computationally demanding calculations are usually required, resolving the finite cross-section of the conductors. Here, we present a new alternative method that enables the internal magnetic field vector, self-force, and self-inductance to be computed rapidly and accurately within a 1D filament model. The method is applicable to coils for which the curve center-line can have general noncircular shape, as long as the conductor width is small compared to the radius of curvature. This paper extends a previous calculation for circular-cross-section conductors (Hurwitz et al 2024 IEEE Trans. Magn. ) to consider the case of rectangular cross-section. The reduced model is derived by rigorous analysis of the singularity, regularizing the filament integrals such that they match the true high-dimensional integrals at high coil aspect ratio. The new filament model exactly recovers analytic results for a circular coil, and is shown to accurately reproduce full finite-cross-section calculations for a non-planar coil of a stellarator magnetic fusion device. Due to the efficiency of the model here, it is well suited for use inside design optimization.

Landreman, Matt (ORCID:000000027233577X)↗

Elements of H-mode pedestal structure

Abstract This paper reviews current understanding of key physics elements that control the H-mode pedestal structure, which exists at the boundary of magnetically confined plasmas. The structure of interest is the width, height and gradient of temperature, density and pressure profiles in the pedestal. Emphasis is placed on understanding obtained from combined experimental, theoretical and simulation work and on results observed on multiple machines. Pedestal profiles are determined by the self-consistent interaction of sources, transport and magnetohydrodynamic limits. The heat source is primarily from heat deposited in the core and flowing to the pedestal. This source is computed from modeling of experimental data and is generally well understood. Neutrals at the periphery of the plasma provide the dominant particle source in current machines. This source has a complex spatial structure, is very difficult to measure and is poorly understood. For typical H-mode operation, the achievable pedestal pressure is limited by repetitive, transient magnetohydrodynamic instabilities. First principles models of peeling–ballooning modes are generally able to explain the observed limits. In some regimes, instability occurs below the predicted limits and these remain unexplained. Several mechanisms have been identified as plausible sources of heat transport. These include neoclassical processes for ion heat transport and several turbulent processes, driven by the steep pedestal gradients, as sources of electron and ion heat transport. Reduced models have successfully predicted the pedestal or density at the pedestal top. Firming up understanding of heat and particle transport remains a primary challenge for developing more complete predictive pedestal models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Power Flow Models of Grid-Forming Inverters in Unbalanced Distribution Grids

Load unbalance in electric distribution systems is unavoidable. Unbalanced load currents will lead to negative sequence (NS) voltages that may damage electric equipment. Unbalanced power flow analysis is a common tool to detect and mitigate NS voltage issues and requires accurate models of grid components. While traditional source models are available, grid-forming (GFM) inverter models are not well developed. GFM inverters implement various control strategies, which affect their power flow models. Here, in this paper, a novel GFM inverter model considering control effects is proposed. We show that for some control methods, unbalanced system loading will lead to unbalanced terminal voltages of the GFM inverters, which are modeled through an equivalent negative sequence impedance. The proposed models are initially validated using a simple test circuit. Then, they are applied in the power flow analysis on the IEEE 13-bus and 34-bus systems to demonstrate the accuracy improvement over the state-of-the-art. Using time-domain simulations as benchmarks, we show that the proposed models reduce the calculation error of negative sequence voltages by at least 25% in unbalanced distribution systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A fractional calculus framework for open quantum dynamics: From Liouville to Lindblad to memory kernels

Open quantum systems exhibit dynamics ranging from unitary evolution to irreversible dissipation. While the Gorini–Kossakowski–Sudarshan–Lindblad equation uniquely characterizes Markovian completely positive and trace-preserving (CPTP) evolution, many physical platforms display non-Markovian features such as algebraic relaxation and coherence backflow. Fractional calculus provides a natural way to model such long-memory behavior through power-law temporal kernels introduced by fractional time derivatives. Here, we develop a unified framework that embeds fractional master equations within the broader hierarchy of open-system formalisms. The fractional equation forms a structured subclass of memory-kernel models, reduces to the Lindblad form at unit order, and, through Bochner–Phillips subordination, admits a CPTP representation as an average over Lindblad semigroups. Its resolvent structure further connects fractional dynamics to established non-Markovian approaches, including Nakajima–Zwanzig kernels and hierarchical equations of motion, providing a compact surrogate for long-memory effects. This formulation positions fractional calculus as a rigorous and practical language for modeling non-Markovian quantum dynamics in chemical physics and physical chemistry, providing a CPTP-preserving, computationally efficient surrogate for structured condensed-phase environments where long-time memory and dissipation play a central role.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Model reduction for the dynamics and control of large structural systems via neutral network processing direct numerical optimization

Three neural network processing approaches in a direct numerical optimization model reduction scheme are proposed and investigated. Large structural systems, such as large space structures, offer new challenges to both structural dynamicists and control engineers. One such challenge is that of dimensionality. Indeed these distributed parameter systems can be modeled either by infinite dimensional mathematical models (typically partial differential equations) or by high dimensional discrete models (typically finite element models) often exhibiting thousands of vibrational modes usually closely spaced and with little, if any, damping. Clearly, some form of model reduction is in order, especially for the control engineer who can actively control but a few of the modes using system identification based on a limited number of sensors. Inasmuch as the amount of 'control spillover' (in which the control inputs excite the neglected dynamics) and/or 'observation spillover' (where neglected dynamics affect system identification) is to a large extent determined by the choice of particular reduced model (RM), the way in which this model reduction is carried out is often critical.

Becus, Georges A.↗

Drosophila TRIM32 cooperates with glycolytic enzymes to promote cell growth

Cell growth and/or proliferation may require the reprogramming of metabolic pathways, whereby a switch from oxidative to glycolytic metabolism diverts glycolytic intermediates towards anabolic pathways. Herein, we identify a novel role for TRIM32 in the maintenance of glycolytic flux mediated by biochemical interactions with the glycolytic enzymes Aldolase and Phosphoglycerate mutase. Loss of Drosophila TRIM32, encoded by thin (tn), shows reduced levels of glycolytic intermediates and amino acids. This altered metabolic profile correlates with a reduction in the size of glycolytic larval muscle and brain tissue. Consistent with a role for metabolic intermediates in glycolysis-driven biomass production, dietary amino acid supplementation in tn mutants improves muscle mass. Remarkably, TRIM32 is also required for ectopic growth - loss of TRIM32 in a wing disc-associated tumor model reduces glycolytic metabolism and restricts growth. Overall, our results reveal a novel role for TRIM32 for controlling glycolysis in the context of both normal development and tumor growth.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Enhanced dynamic equivalent identification method of large-scale power systems using multiple events

The increasing complexity of the interconnected power system makes high-fidelity dynamic simulation models computationally more intensive. To improve computation efficiency, model reduction techniques have been investigated to only preserve the dynamics in a limited area of interest (study area), while deriving equivalent representation for the external area. For this purpose, a measurement-based reduction approach using system identification techniques has been previously proposed. Accordingly, external areas are represented by dynamic equivalent loads using transfer function estimation. In this paper, in order to enhance the accuracy of the reduced model in preserving dynamics of the study area, multiple “grid” events of different types and at different locations are considered for identifying the parameters of the equivalent loads. Additionally, case studies are carried out in the NPCC 140-bus system. Comparisons are made between multiple events training and single event training, highlighting the advantages of the proposed method in providing a better representation of the grid dynamics under different operating conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Modeling Flow in a Microreactor Core: From High-Fidelity CFD to Subchannel Analysis

The accurate prediction of pressure drop in tightly packed, low–Reynolds number (Re) bare rod bundles is essential for the thermal-hydraulic design of the Microreactor Applications Research Validation and EvaLuation (MARVEL) reactor and other microreactor concepts. However, existing friction factor correlations, particularly the upgraded Cheng-Todreas (UCTD) correlation, have limited validation for the small pitch-to-diameter ratios (P/Ds) and transitional flow conditions characteristic of these systems. In this work, we perform high-fidelity large-eddy simulations (LESs) of both an infinite bare rod bundle and a finite bare 37-pin scalloped rod bundle across the range 1000≤ 𝑅𝑒 ≤5500. The simulations reveal strong gap vortex–driven transitional behavior and indicate that the UCTD may underpredict the friction factor by up to 28% at 𝑃/𝐷 = 1.05. Using the LES-calculated pressure drops, we formulate a new friction factor correlation that follows the Cheng-Todreas functional form but is calibrated for low-Re and tightly packed geometries representative of a MARVEL-like reactor. The correlation is implemented in the MOOSE (Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment) subchannel module and compared against both the LES and UCTD predictions. Across all subchannel types, the proposed model reduces the streamwise velocity differences from as high as 44% (UCTD) to below 9%, and decreases the pressure gradient differences from 13% to 25% (UCTD) to 0.7% to 7% relative to the LES results. These results suggest that the new correlation has the potential to improve the pressure drop and flow field predictions for such geometries, highlighting the importance of high-fidelity simulations in supporting microreactor thermal-hydraulic model development and motivating future pressure drop experiments for compact rod bundles to further validate these findings.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

Enhanced Dynamic Equivalent Identification Method of Large-Scale Power Systems Using Multiple Event

The increasing complexity of the interconnected power system makes high-fidelity dynamic simulation models computationally more intensive. To improve computation efficiency, model reduction techniques have been investigated to only preserve the dynamics in a limited area of interest (study area), while deriving equivalent representation for the external area. For this purpose, a measurement-based reduction approach using system identification techniques has been previously proposed. In that case, external areas are represented by dynamic equivalent loads using transfer function estimation. In this paper, in order to enhance the accuracy of the reduced model in preserving dynamics of the study area, multiple “grid” events of different types and at different locations are considered for identifying the parameters of the equivalent loads. Case studies are carried out in the NPCC 140-bus system. Comparison are made between multiple events training and single event training, highlighting the advantages of the proposed method in providing a better representation of the grid dynamics under different operating conditions.

Xue, Yaosuo↗