Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Scenario Analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 667 records · Page 37

Dynamic modeling studies of basin-scale pressure interference and CO 2 plume evolution in multi-well geologic CO 2 storage

This research employs numerical modeling to analyze how CO 2 plumes and pressure fronts evolve when CO 2 is injected into a single storage formation from multiple projects located in proximity. Here, this analysis also evaluates the extent to which injection well spacing alleviates pressure buildup in the absence of active pressure management tactics. The simulation approach was based on a single, homogenous saline aquifer in which CO 2 injection occurs under a one-injector baseline case and several multi-well cases where well spacing varies. Analysis results show that the extent of pressure buildup is in the range of tens or a few hundreds of kilometers and contingent upon the defining pressure buildup demarcating the front edge. For the geological setting evaluated in this paper, our analysis suggests that without active basin pressure management strategies, commercial-scale projects would likely need to be sited far apart to avoid pressure interference from one another. Analysis results show the radius of CO 2 plume varies approximately from 2 to 3 km from injection wells (each injecting 1 Mt/year for 30 years) depending on cases and modeling parameters assumed. Given the pressure interference, this paper thus draws attention to the importance of greater coordination among storage operators and regulatory stakeholders. Because this analysis assumes a very specific geologic setting, this exploratory analysis bears further investigations across other geologic scenarios.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Evolution of coupled weakly driven waves in a dissipative plasma

The nonlinear collisional dynamics of coupled driven plasma waves in the presence of background dissipation is studied analytically within kinetic theory. Sufficiently near marginal stability, phase space correlations are poorly preserved and time delays become unimportant. The system is then shown to be governed by two first-order coupled autonomous differential equations of cubic order for the wave amplitudes and two complementary first-order equations for the evolution of their phases. That system of equations can be decoupled and further simplified to a single second-order differential equation of Liénard's type for each amplitude. Numerical solutions for this equation are obtained in the general case, while analytic solutions are obtained for special cases in terms of parameters related to the spacing of the resonances of the two waves in frequency space, e.g., wave lengths and oscillation frequencies. These parameters are further analyzed to find classes of quasi-steady saturation and pulsating scenarios. To classify equilibrium points, local stability analysis is applied, and bifurcation conditions are determined. When the two waves saturate at similar amplitude levels, their combined signal is shown to invariably exhibit amplitude beating and phase jumps of nearly π. In conclusion, the obtained analytical results can be used to benchmark simulations and to interpret eigenmode amplitude measurements in fusion experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Build-to-Replace Strategy to Reduce Operations and Maintenance Costs for Advanced Reactors

This paper targets the reduction of fixed operations and maintenance (O&M) costs for advanced reactor (AR) designs. This goal will be severely constrained if the underlying assumptions of O&M approaches and practices are not questioned and reexamined, especially today when changes can be implemented effectively and efficiently. Achieving a reduction in AR O&M costs requires a completely new way of thinking -a paradigm shift- not through incremental, technology-focused approaches alone. Here, we address this challenge by evaluating the impact of moving to a shorter design life for major structures, systems, and components and shorter, more predictable refurbishment cycles as modeled by the commercial airline industry: the build-to-replace approach. This paper provides a brief overview of this different mindset to O&M applied to ARs and it provided a set of analytical tools based on multi-objective optimization to identify the benefits of such an approach. In conclusion, we provide a direct example analysis of a build-to-replace scenario by identifying and evaluating scenarios for reduced system and component lifetimes and associated replacement and refurbishment schedules to evaluate impacts on O&M costs and other lifecycle elements, such as structure, system, and component reliability.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Data-driven Quasi-static Surrogate Model for Nuclear-powered Integrated Energy Systems

The integration of nuclear power into energy systems presents a promising avenue to address the growing global energy demands while minimizing greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper, we introduce a data-driven quasi-static surrogate model for nuclear-powered Integrated Energy Systems (IES) that comprises various components, including a small modular reactor (SMR), energy manifold (EM), balance of plant (BOP), high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE), and district heating (DH) system. Traditional physics-based models for these components often entail significant computational overhead and time consumption, necessitating the development of efficient surrogate models. The development of a complete surrogate model for the IES involves the creation of individual surrogate models for each component, leveraging machine learning techniques and simulated data. These isolated surrogate models are subsequently integrated, enabling a holistic view of the IES and reducing the computational burden associated with detailed physics-based simulations. This paper outlines the development process, validation, and the performance evaluation of the surrogate models. The findings shed light on the accuracy and applicability of the surrogate models in practical scenarios, demonstrating their potential to expedite the analysis of nuclear-powered IES and inform future research and development efforts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

pnnl/DPVPROT

Distributed photovoltaics protection software toolkit The code package includes several important functions for design and analysis of new grid protection schemes, for scenarios of distributed photovoltaic (DPV) generation approaching 100% of the peak feeder load, i.e., high-penetration DPV. Convert distribution feeder models, used by planning engineers, to electromagnetic transient (EMT) models that produce waveforms for advanced relay algorithms. Visualize the results of protection scheme operation. Tools to determine distance relay settings on distribution systems. Tools to predict the performance of time-domain, incremental distance relay algorithms

McDermott, Tom↗

Air Quality Analysis and Tools For Policy

South Asia is home to some of the most significant air quality challenges in the world. More than 99% of the region’s population is exposed to unhealthy fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations, as defined by the World Health Organization. Recent policy initiatives in South Asia show that air quality policy is a priority, given the health impacts of air pollution. At the same time, capacity and data to assess and address air pollution remains limited in many areas. The main objective of this report is to outline a set of publicly-available tools that can be used to inform policies to improve air quality in South Asia. The report primarily focuses on tools such as emission inventories and integrated modeling systems with country-level resolution and illustrates their air quality assessment capabilities through examples and brief technical summaries. The report focuses on: (a) the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) that provides historical emissions of key pollutants for all countries in South Asia, and (b) profiles an analysis of Indian air pollution and policy scenarios, using several integrated modeling tools. Both of these examples draw on recent research and data that outlines the scale of the challenge as well as the policy options for reducing air pollution in the region. The report concludes with key recommendations for regional stakeholders working towards mitigating air pollution in South Asia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydrogen Carriers for Renewable Microgrid System Applications

Utility-scale energy storage can help improve grid reliability, reduce costs, and promote faster adoption of intermittent sources such as solar and wind. This paper analyzes the technical aspects and economics of standalone microgrids operating on intermittent power combined with hydrogen energy storage. It explores the feasibility of using dibenzyltoluene (DBT) as a liquid organic hydrogen carrier to absorb excess energy during periods of high supply and polymer electrolyte fuel cells to generate electrical energy during periods of low supply. A comparative analysis is conducted on three power demand scenarios (industrial, residential, and office), in conjunction with three alternative energy sources: solar, wind and wind–solar mix. A mixed system of solar and wind energy can maintain an annual average efficiency above 70%, except for residential power demand, which lowered the efficiency to 67%. A balanced combination of wind and solar power was the most cost-effective option. The current levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for industrial power demand was estimated to 15 ¢/kWh, and it is projected to decrease to 9 ¢/kWh in the future. For residential power demand, the LCOE was 45% higher due to the demand profile. In comparison, battery storage is significantly more expensive than hydrogen storage, even with future cost projections, increasing the LCOE between 60 and 120 ¢/kWh.

PEM electrolysis↗

Orbital construction support equipment

Approximately 200 separate construction steps were defined for the three solar power satellite (SPS) concepts. Detailed construction scenarios were developed which describe the specific tasks to be accomplished, and identify general equipment requirements. The scenarios were used to perform a functional analysis, which resulted in the definition of 100 distinct SPS elements. These elements are the components, parts, subsystems, or assemblies upon which construction activities take place. The major SPS elements for each configuration are shown. For those elements, 300 functional requirements were identified in seven generic processes. Cumulatively, these processes encompass all functions required during SPS construction/assembly. Individually each process is defined such that it includes a specific type of activity. Each SPS element may involve activities relating to any or all of the generic processes. The processes are listed, and examples of the requirements defined for a typical element are given.

Source record↗

Optimum Repair Level Analysis (ORLA) for the Space Transportation System (STS)

A repair level analysis method applied to a space shuttle scenario is presented. A determination of the most cost effective level of repair for reparable hardware, the location for the repair, and a system which will accrue minimum total support costs within operational and technical constraints over the system design are defined. The method includes cost equations for comparison of selected costs to completion for assumed repair alternates.

Henry, W. R.↗

Satellite Power Systems (SPS) concept definition study (Exhibit D). Volume 4: Operations analyses

Using a coplanar, end-mounted antenna as a baseline, various configuration trades were performed to select a preferred solid state concept. The increase in efficiency that could be realized by use of multi bandgap solar cells, either with klystron or solid state antenna was evaluated. Satellite configurations were developed to exploit the sandwich antenna concept wherein solar cells are located on one side of the antenna panel and solid state dc/RF converters on the other side. These concepts entailed various primary and secondary reflector arrangements for directing solar energy to the solar cell side of the antenna with higher concentration ratios than used on the coplanar configurations. Operations analysis included development of a satellite construction scenario, a concept for the SCB, a top-level satellite construction operation, construction operation, construction timelines and crew sizes, mass flows to orbit, and a satellite maintenance scenario. The list of materials required for satellite construction was updated to identify significant differences relevant to the solid state satellite concept. Means of decommissioning satellites at the end of their design life were studied.

Hanley, G. M.↗

The asteroid rendezvous spacecraft. An adaptation study of TIROS/DMSP technology

The feasibility of using the TIROS/DMSP Earth orbiting meteorological satellite in application to a near Earth asteroid rendezvous mission. System and subsystems analysis was carried out to develop a configuration of the spacecraft suitable for this mission. Mission analysis studies were also done and maneuver/rendezvous scenarios developed for baseline missions to both Anteros and Eros. The fact that the Asteroid mission is the most complex of the Pioneer class missions currently under consideration notwithstanding, the basic conclusion very strongly supports the suitability of the basic TIROS bus for this mission in all systems and subsystems areas, including science accommodation. Further, the modifications which are required due to the unique mission are very low risk and can be accomplished readily. The key issue is that in virtually every key subsystem, the demands of the Asteroid mission are a subset of the basic meteorological satellite mission. This allows a relatively simple reconfiguration to be accomplished without a major system redesign.

Source record↗

Agricultural requirements for precipitation measurements

The requirements for precipitation measurements from space for hydrologic forecasting applications are discussed. The structure of the hydrologic forecasting service of the National Weather Service (NWS) is described, and an attempt is made to estimate the sampling and accuracy requirements for a range of spatial and temporal averaging scales corresponding to various NWS hydrologic applications. Finally, the data base requirements are addressed. The critical point is made that for the data source to be most useful operationally at the NWS River Forecast Centers, the data must be available on-line in a format compatible with computer processing. Several data base systems are illustrated in a scenario for a multi-sensor rainfall analysis system (MSRANS). Actually, MSRANS is the software existing within the various computer environments required to preprocess, process, and analyze rainfall information from multiple sources.

Strommen, N. D.↗

Impact of new computing systems on computational mechanics and flight-vehicle structures technology

Advances in computer technology which may have an impact on computational mechanics and flight vehicle structures technology were reviewed. The characteristics of supersystems, highly parallel systems, and small systems are summarized. The interrelations of numerical algorithms and software with parallel architectures are discussed. A scenario for future hardware/software environment and engineering analysis systems is presented. Research areas with potential for improving the effectiveness of analysis methods in the new environment are identified.

Noor, A. K.↗

User engineering: A new look at system engineering

User Engineering is a new System Engineering perspective responsible for defining and maintaining the user view of the system. Its elements are a process to guide the project and customer, a multidisciplinary team including hard and soft sciences, rapid prototyping tools to build user interfaces quickly and modify them frequently at low cost, and a prototyping center for involving users and designers in an iterative way. The main consideration is reducing the risk that the end user will not or cannot effectively use the system. The process begins with user analysis to produce cognitive and work style models, and task analysis to produce user work functions and scenarios. These become major drivers of the human computer interface design which is presented and reviewed as an interactive prototype by users. Feedback is rapid and productive, and user effectiveness can be measured and observed before the system is built and fielded. Requirements are derived via the prototype and baselined early to serve as an input to the architecture and software design.

Mclaughlin, Larry L.↗

Mars sample return - Science

The possible scientific goals of a Mars sample return mission are reviewed, including the value of samples and the selection of sampling sites. The fundamental questions about Mars which could be studied using samples are examined, including planetary formation, differentiation, volcanism and petrogenesis, weathering, and erosion. Scenarios are presented for sample acquisition and analysis. Possible sampling methods and tools are discussed, including drilling techniques, types of rovers, and processing instruments. In addition, the possibility of aerocapture out of elliptical or circular orbit is considered.

Blanchard, Douglas P.↗

Organic chemistry of cometary dust as derived from PUMA 1 data

Onboard the Halley Fly-By spacecrafts Vega 1, Vega 2, and Giotto were the dust impact mass spectrometers PUMA 1, PUMA 2, and PIA respectively. PUMA 1 was the most sensitive instrument among them. From its data the occurrence of masslines greater than 60 Daltons could be shown to be statistically significant. An analysis of these masslines lead to a scenario, which could explain the masslines as fragment ions from larger molecules which characterize the chemical nature of cometary organic matter as: (1) highly unsaturated hydrocarbons; (2) some of them containing oxygen; (3) less containing nitrogen; and (4) a few containing oxygen and nitrogen as heteroatoms. From the properties of the spectrometer, also some physical parameters of the dust particles could be inferred, such as their density and structure.

Kissel, J.↗

A HOL theory for voting

Central to fault-tolerant computing is redundancy management, and common to proofs of fault-tolerance is a maximum fault assumption. Typically a maximum fault assumption is rather restrictive. Usually, this is necessary to avoid assumptions about the behavior of faulty channels. A maximum fault assumption is useful because it allows reasoning about fault tolerance in the presence of arbitrarily malicious fault behavior. However, analysis of the architecture may establish certain scenarios in which the assumption may be weakened. Proofs comparing majority and plurality and proofs of simple reconfiguration strategies are presented in viewgraph form.

Miner, Paul S.↗

A compilation of lunar and Mars exploration strategies utilizing indigenous propellants

The use of propellants manufactured from indigenous space materials has the potential to significantly reduce the amount of mass required to be launched from the Earth's surface. The extent of the leverage, however, along with the cost for developing the infrastructure necessary to support such a process, is unclear. Many mission analyses have been performed that have attempted to quantify the potential benefits of in situ propellant utilization. Because the planning of future space missions includes many unknowns, the presentation of any single study on the use of in situ propellants is often met with critics' claims of the inaccuracy of assumptions or omission of infrastructure requirements. The results of many such mission analyses are presented in one format. Each summarized mission analysis used different assumptions and baseline mission scenarios. The conclusion from the studies is that the use of in situ produced propellants will provide significant reductions in Earth launch requirements. This result is consistent among all of the analyses regardless of the assumptions used to obtain the quantitative results. The determination of the best propellant combination and the amount of savings will become clearer and more apparent as the technology work progresses.

Linne, Diane L.↗