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Complex system study data indicate that factors associated with multilayer insulation pose major problem in scale modeling, that numerical analysis aids correction for known compromises of scaling criteria, and that probable errors in scale modeling experiments fall within range predicted by statistical analysis.
The Nimbus-6 satellite carries a scanning microwave spectrometer (SCAMS) experiment. The five frequency bands observed are near 22.2, 31.6, 52.8, 53.8, and 55.4 GHz. The calibration system permitted preflight calibration to an accuracy of about 1 K. In orbit, small empirical corrections were made to the calibration constants to obtain agreement in the mean of SCAMS measurements with computations based on conventional data analyzed by the National Meteorological Center (NMC). Global maps of temperature profiles were retrieved from the SCAMS measurements by a statistical method. Using the NMC analysis as the verification, RMS errors in level temperatures range of about 2-4 K, depending on altitude. Errors for layers of octave extent in pressure are uniformly about 2 K. Theoretical computations show that additional spectrometer channels would improve temperature sensing performance
The maximum theoretical accuracy in the angular location of a radiating object that can be obtained by using a planar or linear array is studied. The elements are assumed to have identical radiation patterns and the complex voltages observed at their ports are assumed to be subject to phase measurement errors, having normal probability density. An optimum scheme for the statistical extraction of the parameters defining the direction is established noting that the presence of thermal noise does not affect the structure of the estimator. Comparisons with the conventional multiple interferometric techniques are made.
The problem of merging direct and remotely sensed (indirect) data with forecast data to get an estimate of the present state of the atmosphere for the purpose of numerical weather prediction is examined. To carry out this merging optimally, it is necessary to provide an estimate of the relative weights to be given to the observations and forecast. It is possible to do this dynamically from the information to be merged, if the correlation structure of the errors from the various sources is sufficiently different. Some new statistical approaches to doing this are described, and conditions quantified in which such estimates are likely to be good.
An innovative approach to autonomous navigation is available for low earth orbit satellites. The system is developed in Matlab and utilizes an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to estimate the attitude and trajectory based on spacecraft magnetometer and gyro data. Preliminary tests of the system with real spacecraft data from the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer Satellite (RXTE) indicate the existence of unmodeled errors in the magnetometer data. Incorporating into the EKF a statistical model that describes the colored component of the effective measurement of the magnetic field vector could improve the accuracy of the trajectory and attitude estimates and also improve the convergence time. This model is identified as a first order Markov process. With the addition of the model, the EKF attempts to identify the non-white components of the noise allowing for more accurate estimation of the original state vector, i.e. the orbital elements and the attitude. Working in Matlab allows for easy incorporation of new models into the EKF and the resulting navigation system is generic and can easily be applied to future missions resulting in an alternative in onboard or ground-based navigation.
An ozone data assimilation system has been developed at the Data Assimilation Office of the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center to provide global three-dimensional analyzed ozone mixing ratio and total column ozone. The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) total column ozone and the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) or SBUV/2 partial ozone profile data are assimilated. The analyzed winds from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-DAS) drive the ozone transport. Following every transport model timestep, the model prediction is combined with the observations using a global, physical-space based, statistical analysis scheme. Due to the smaller size of the ozone system than that of a global meteorological data assimilation system, new statistical analysis methodology, including anisotropic and flow-dependent forecast error correlation models, can be implemented and tested in the ozone system more easily. Sample results from the winter 1992 validation period are presented. There is a close agreement between the analyzed fields and the independent observations from ozone sondes and the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE).
Validation of satellite remote-sensing methods for estimating rainfall against rain-gauge data is attractive because of the direct nature of the rain-gauge measurements. Comparisons of satellite estimates to rain-gauge data are difficult, however, because of the extreme variability of rain and the fact that satellites view large areas over a short time while rain gauges monitor small areas continuously. In this paper, a statistical model of rainfall variability developed for studies of sampling error in averages of satellite data is used to examine the impact of spatial and temporal averaging of satellite and gauge data on intercomparison results. The model parameters were derived from radar observations of rain, but the model appears to capture many of the characteristics of rain-gauge data as well. The model predicts that many months of data from areas containing a few gauges are required to validate satellite estimates over the areas, and that the areas should be of the order of several hundred km in diameter. Over gauge arrays of sufficiently high density, the optimal areas and averaging times are reduced. The possibility of using time-weighted averages of gauge data is explored.
A data assimilation system for specifying the thermospheric density has been developed over the last several years. This system ingests GRACE/CHAMP-type in situ as well as SSULI/SSUSI remote sensing observations while making use of a physical model, the Coupled Thermosphere-Ionosphere Model (CTIM) (Fuller-Rowel1 et al., 1996). The Kalman filter was implemented as the backbone to the data assimilation system, which provides a statistically 'best' estimate as well as an estimate of the error in its state. The system was tested using a simulated thermosphere and observations. CHAMP data were then used to provide the system with a real data source. The results of this study are herein.
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Image Navigation and Registration (INR) performance is specified at the 3- level, meaning that 99.7% of a collection of individual measurements must comply with specification thresholds. Landmarks are measured by the Replacement Product Monitor (RPM), part of the operational GOES ground system, to assess INR performance and to close the INR loop. The RPM automatically discriminates between valid and invalid measurements enabling it to run without human supervision. In general, this screening is reliable, but a small population of invalid measurements will be falsely identified as valid. Even a small population of invalid measurements can create problems when assessing performance at the 3-sigma level. This paper describes an additional layer of quality control whereby landmarks of the highest quality ("platinum") are identified by their self-consistency. The platinum screening criteria are not simple statistical outlier tests against sigma values in populations of INR errors. In-orbit INR performance metrics for GOES-12 and GOES-13 are presented using the platinum landmark methodology.
The 45th Weather Squadron Launch Weather Officers use the 12-km resolution North American Mesoscale model (MesoNAM) forecasts to support launch weather operations. In Phase I, the performance of the model at KSC/CCAFS was measured objectively by conducting a detailed statistical analysis of model output compared to observed values. The objective analysis compared the MesoNAM forecast winds, temperature, and dew point to the observed values from the sensors in the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network. In Phase II, the AMU modified the current tool by adding an additional 15 months of model output to the database and recalculating the verification statistics. The bias, standard deviation of bias, Root Mean Square Error, and Hypothesis test for bias were calculated to verify the performance of the model. The results indicated that the accuracy decreased as the forecast progressed, there was a diurnal signal in temperature with a cool bias during the late night and a warm bias during the afternoon, and there was a diurnal signal in dewpoint temperature with a low bias during the afternoon and a high bias during the late night.
In this study, extended -range (30 -day) high-resolution simulations with the NASA global mesoscale model are conducted to simulate the initiation and propagation of six consecutive African easterly waves (AEWs) from late August to September 2006 and their association with hurricane formation. It is shown that the statistical characteristics of individual AEWs are realistically simulated with larger errors in the 5th and 6th AEWs. Remarkable simulations of a mean African easterly jet (AEJ) are also obtained. Nine additional 30 -day experiments suggest that although land surface processes might contribute to the predictability of the AEJ and AEWs, the initiation and detailed evolution of AEWs still depend on the accurate representation of dynamic and land surface initial conditions and their time -varying nonlinear interactions. Of interest is the potential to extend the lead time for predicting hurricane formation (e.g., a lead time of up to 22 days) as the 4th AEW is realistically simulated.
This project seeks to develop statistical-based machine learning models to characterize the types of errors present when using current systems to predict future aircraft states. These models will be data-driven - based on large quantities of historical data. Once these models are developed, they will be used to infer situations in the historical data where an air-traffic controller intervened on an aircraft's route, even when there is no direct recording of this action.
Satellite remote sensing estimates of Gross Primary Production (GPP) have routinely been made using spectral Vegetation Indices (VIs) over the past two decades. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), the green band Wide Dynamic Range Vegetation Index (WDRVIgreen), and the green band Chlorophyll Index (CIgreen) have been employed to estimate GPP under the assumption that GPP is proportional to the product of VI and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) (where VI is one of four VIs: NDVI, EVI, WDRVIgreen, or CIgreen). However, the empirical regressions between VI*PAR and GPP measured locally at flux towers do not pass through the origin (i.e., the zero X-Y value for regressions). Therefore they are somewhat difficult to interpret and apply. This study investigates (1) what are the scaling factors and offsets (i.e., regression slopes and intercepts) between the fraction of PAR absorbed by chlorophyll of a canopy (fAPARchl) and the VIs, and (2) whether the scaled VIs developed in (1) can eliminate the deficiency and improve the accuracy of GPP estimates. Three AmeriFlux maize and soybean fields were selected for this study, two of which are irrigated and one is rainfed. The four VIs and fAPARchl of the fields were computed with the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite images. The GPP estimation performance for the scaled VIs was compared to results obtained with the original VIs and evaluated with standard statistics: the coefficient of determination (R2), the root mean square error (RMSE), and the coefficient of variation (CV). Overall, the scaled EVI obtained the best performance. The performance of the scaled NDVI, EVI and WDRVIgreen was improved across sites, crop types and soil/background wetness conditions. The scaled CIgreen did not improve results, compared to the original CIgreen. The scaled green band indices (WDRVIgreen, CIgreen) did not exhibit superior performance to either the scaled EVI or NDVI in estimating crop daily GPP at these agricultural fields. The scaled VIs are more physiologically meaningful than original un-scaled VIs, but scaling factors and offsets may vary across crop types and surface conditions.
The JSC OCFO analyst's job function relies heavily on analytics to provide every directorate customer with quality service in managing their respective budgets. This technology, configured on the Salesforce cloud platform, enhances the JSC OCFO customer user interface, provides state of the art data analytics and statistics, reduces IT costs, increases productivity, eliminates duplicate entry and errors, and utilizes machine learning and artificial intelligence to process day to day transactional tasks automatically without analyst manipulation. The unique configuration of the COTS technology allows for highly advanced analysis and reporting of government budget data. This provides the ability for complex budgets to be fully understood in detail by non-budget organizations and eliminates time consuming analysis on the OCFO analyst's behalf.
The effects of a 5.8 year exposure to low earth orbit environment upon the mechanical properties of commercial optical fused silica, low iron soda-lime-silica, Pyrex 7740, Vycor 7913, BK-7, and the glass ceramic Zerodur were examined. Mechanical testing employed the ASTM-F-394 piston on 3-ball method in a liquid nitrogen environment. Samples were exposed on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) in two locations. Impacts were observed on all specimens except Vycor. Weibull analysis as well as a standard statistical evaluation were conducted. The Weibull analysis revealed no differences between control samples and the two exposed samples. We thus concluded that radiation components of the Earth orbital environment did not degrade the mechanical strength of the samples examined within the limits of experimental error. The upper bound of strength degradation for meteorite impacted samples based upon statistical analysis and observation was 50 percent.
In a data assimilation system the forecast error covariance matrix governs the way in which the data information is spread throughout the model grid. Implementation of a correct method of assigning covariances is expected to have an impact on the analysis results. The simplest models assume that correlations are constant in time and isotropic or nearly isotropic. In such models the analysis depends on the dynamics only through assumed error standard deviations. In applications to atmospheric tracer data assimilation this may lead to inaccuracies, especially in regions with strong wind shears or high gradient of potential vorticity, as well as in areas where no data are available. In order to overcome this problem we have developed a flow-dependent covariance model that is based on short term evolution of error correlations. The presentation compares performance of a static and a flow-dependent model applied to a global three- dimensional ozone data assimilation system developed at NASA s Data Assimilation Office. We will present some results of validation against WMO balloon-borne sondes and the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III instrument. Experiments show that allowing forecast error correlations to evolve with the flow results in positive impact on assimilated ozone within the regions where data were not assimilated, particularly at high latitudes in both hemispheres and in the troposphere. We will also discuss statistical characteristics of both models; in particular we will argue that including evolution of error correlations leads to stronger internal consistency of a data assimilation ,
Progress in the construction of the fundamental catalogs allows one to ask the following questions: 'Now that we have the FK5 with which to measure by, how good was the FK4? The FK3? How realistic were the error estimates they gave for their equatorial coordinates and their proper motions? Have their residual systematic differences continued to decrease in amplitude?' and so forth. Similar questions could be asked of the GC and the N30, and a companion paper will similarly analyze them. Finally, the identical series of questions could be asked of the AGK2, AGK3, AGK3U sequence. In this paper we develop a general method to objectively investigate, post facto, the true quality of star catalog error estimates. We present a complete mathematical formulation of the questions above and delineate the calculations needed to address them. Our initial numerical applications are restricted to a straightforward examination of the mean errors of the coordinates and proper motions in the FK3 (using the FK4 and the FK5 for comparison) and in the FK4 (using the FK5 for comparison). However, we can simply and consistently interpret the results of these computations -- for the FK catalogs fail to follow the predictions of mathematical statistics -- only if the FK3 and the FK4 contain higher angular frequency systematic errors. These errors, at the mean epochs of place of the older catalogs, are larger than the random errors in the FK5 system. We expect that our new ability to discern these features means that we can also prevent them during compilation. Finally, note that the concepts behind our procedures are completely general and can be applied to any set of compiled data -- astrometric, photometric, geodetic, and so forth.
The sea-state bias in a satellite altimeter's range measurement is caused by the influence of ocean waves on the radar return pulse; it results in an estimate of sea level that is too low according to some function of the wave height. This bias is here estimated for Geosat by correlating collinear differences of altimetric sea-surface heights with collinear differences of significant wave heights (H1/3). Corrections for satellite orbit error are estimated simultaneously with the sea-state bias. Based on twenty 17-day repeat cycles of the Geosat Exact Repeat Mission, the solution for the sea-state bias is 2.6 + or - 0.2 percent of H1/3. The least-squares residuals, however, show a correlation with wind speed U, so the traditional model of the bias has been supplemented with a second term: H1/3 + alpha-2H1/3U. This second term produces a small, but statistically significant, reduction in variance of the residuals. Both systematic and random errors in H1/3 and U tend to bias the estimates of alpha-1 and alpha-2, which complicates comparisons of the results with ground-based measurements of the sea-state bias.