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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 667 records · Page 37
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DOE OSTI2014

Trip Prediction Using GIS for Vehicle Energy Efficiency

In this paper, we present a novel trip prediction process whose main applications include vehicle energy efficiency optimization. The process is composed of multiple parts. First, a Markov chain model is built from quality-checked, real-world vehicle speed data. Secondly, a geographical information system (GIS), ADAS-RP, is used to define a real-world itinerary on a map-based interface. Finally, an algorithm runs the Markov chains under constraints from the GIS. As a result, any number of second-by-second stochastic speed profiles can be generated for a given itinerary. These speed profiles can then be inputs to vehicle powertrain models such as Autonomie, which can be used to predict energy consumption and other operational parameters. An example of the application of speed prediction is also described, involving route-based energy management for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, in which the knowledge of future speed profiles can be used to find the optimal energy split.

energy efficiency↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stochastic microstructural analysis of ceramic matrix composites using a high-fidelity multiscale framework

This paper presents a high-fidelity multiscale framework to simulate the mechanical behavior of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs), accounting for the complex micromorphology captured using detailed material characterization. First, high-resolution micrographs are obtained for the specific carbon fiber silicon-carbide-nitride matrix (C/SiNC) CMC to characterize the variability of the architectural features and manufacturing-induced defects at the microscale. An image processing algorithm is then used to precisely estimate the size and distribution of all subscale features and defects from the micrographs. The information is then used to generate a three-dimensional stochastic representative volume element (SRVE) to reconstruct microscale constituents accounting for the variability. As a result, the generated SRVEs are simulated using the high-fidelity generalized method of cells (HFGMC) micromechanics theory to investigate the effects of defects on the elastic properties of C/SiNC CMCs.

Ceramic Matrix Composites↗
DOE OSTI2019

Multi-Stage Stochastic Programming to Joint Economic Dispatch for Energy and Reserve With Uncertain Renewable Energy

To address the uncertain renewable energy in the day-ahead optimal dispatch of energy and reserve, a multi-stage stochastic programming model is established in this paper to minimize the expected total costs. The uncertainties over the multiple stages are characterized by a scenario tree and the optimal dispatch scheme is cast as a decision tree which guarantees the flexibility to decide the reasonable outputs of generation and the adequate reserves accounting for different realizations of renewable energy. Most importantly, to deal with the “Curse of Dimensionality” of stochastic programming, stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP) is employed, which decomposes the original problem into several sub-problems according to the stages. Specifically, the SDDP algorithm performs forward pass and backward pass repeatedly until the convergence criterion is satisfied. At each iteration, the original problem is approximated by creating a linear piecewise function. Besides, an improved convergence criterion is adopted to narrow the optimization gaps. The results on the IEEE 118-bus system and real-life provincial power grid show the effectiveness of the proposed model and method.

economic dispatch↗
DOE OSTI2012

Simulating diffusion processes in discontinuous media: A numerical scheme with constant time steps

In this article, we propose new Monte Carlo techniques for moving a diffusive particle in a discontinuous media. In this framework, we characterize the stochastic process that governs the positions of the particle. The key tool is the reduction of the process to a Skew Brownian motion (SBM). In a zone where the coefficients are locally constant on each side of the discontinuity, the new position of the particle after a constant time step is sampled from the exact distribution of the SBM process at the considered time. To do so, we propose two different but equivalent algorithms: a two-steps simulation with a stop at the discontinuity and a one-step direct simulation of the SBM dynamic. Some benchmark tests illustrate their effectiveness.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2019

Mechanistic origins of stochastic rupture in metals

The classic models for ductile fracture of metals were based on experimental observations dating back to the 1950’s. Using advanced microscopy techniques and modeling algorithms that have been developed over the past several decades, it is possible now to examine the micro- and nano-scale mechanisms of ductile rupture in more detail. This new information enables a revised understanding of the ductile rupture process under quasi-static room temperature conditions in ductile pure metals and alloys containing hard particles. While ductile rupture has traditionally been viewed through the lens of nucleation-growth-and-coalescence, a new taxonomy is proposed involving the competition or cooperation of up to seven distinct rupture mechanisms. Generally, void nucleation via vacancy condensation is not rate limiting, but is extensive within localized shear bands of intense deformation. Instead, the controlling process appears to be the development of intense local dislocation activity which enables void growth via dislocation absorption.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2012

Hierarchical fractional-step approximations and parallel kinetic Monte Carlo algorithms

We present a mathematical framework for constructing and analyzing parallel algorithms for lattice kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations. The resulting algorithms have the capacity to simulate a wide range of spatio-temporal scales in spatially distributed, non-equilibrium physiochemical processes with complex chemistry and transport micro-mechanisms. Rather than focusing on constructing exactly the stochastic trajectories, our approach relies on approximating the evolution of observables, such as density, coverage, correlations and so on. More specifically, we develop a spatial domain decomposition of the Markov operator (generator) that describes the evolution of all observables according to the kinetic Monte Carlo algorithm. This domain decomposition corresponds to a decomposition of the Markov generator into a hierarchy of operators and can be tailored to specific hierarchical parallel architectures such as multi-core processors or clusters of Graphical Processing Units (GPUs). Based on this operator decomposition, we formulate parallel Fractional step kinetic Monte Carlo algorithms by employing the Trotter Theorem and its randomized variants; these schemes, (a) are partially asynchronous on each fractional step time-window, and (b) are characterized by their communication schedule between processors. The proposed mathematical framework allows us to rigorously justify the numerical and statistical consistency of the proposed algorithms, showing the convergence of our approximating schemes to the original serial KMC. The approach also provides a systematic evaluation of different processor communicating schedules. We carry out a detailed benchmarking of the parallel KMC schemes using available exact solutions, for example, in Ising-type systems and we demonstrate the capabilities of the method to simulate complex spatially distributed reactions at very large scales on GPUs. Finally, we discuss work load balancing between processors and propose a re-balancing scheme based on probabilistic mass transport methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Rapidly convergent quantum Monte Carlo using a Chebyshev projector

The multireference coupled-cluster Monte Carlo (MR-CCMC) algorithm is a determinant-based quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) algorithm that is conceptually similar to Full Configuration Interaction QMC (FCIQMC). It has been shown to offer a balanced treatment of both static and dynamic correlation while retaining polynomial scaling, although application to large systems with significant strong correlation remained impractical. In this paper, we document recent algorithmic advances that enable rapid convergence and a more black-box approach to the multireference problem. These include a logarithmically scaling metric-tree-based excitation acceptance algorithm to search for determinants connected to the reference space at the desired excitation level and a symmetry-screening procedure for the reference space. We show that, for moderately sized reference spaces, the new search algorithm brings about an approximately 8-fold acceleration of one MR-CCMC iteration, while the symmetry screening procedure reduces the number of active reference space determinants with essentially no loss of accuracy. We also introduce a stochastic implementation of an approximate wall projector, which is the infinite imaginary time limit of the exponential projector, using a truncated expansion of the wall function in Chebyshev polynomials. Notably, this wall-Chebyshev projector can be used to accelerate any projector-based QMC algorithm. We show that it requires significantly fewer applications of the Hamiltonian to achieve the same statistical convergence. We benchmark these acceleration methods on the beryllium and carbon dimers, using initiator FCIQMC and MR-CCMC with basis sets up to cc-pVQZ quality.

Zhao, Zijun↗
DOE OSTI2015

SELECTION OF BURST-LIKE TRANSIENTS AND STOCHASTIC VARIABLES USING MULTI-BAND IMAGE DIFFERENCING IN THE PAN-STARRS1 MEDIUM-DEEP SURVEY

We present a novel method for the light-curve characterization of Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey (PS1 MDS) extragalactic sources into stochastic variables (SVs) and burst-like (BL) transients, using multi-band image-differencing time-series data. We select detections in difference images associated with galaxy hosts using a star/galaxy catalog extracted from the deep PS1 MDS stacked images, and adopt a maximum a posteriori formulation to model their difference-flux time-series in four Pan-STARRS1 photometric bands g {sub P1}, r {sub P1}, i {sub P1}, and z {sub P1}. We use three deterministic light-curve models to fit BL transients; a Gaussian, a Gamma distribution, and an analytic supernova (SN) model, and one stochastic light-curve model, the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, in order to fit variability that is characteristic of active galactic nuclei (AGNs). We assess the quality of fit of the models band-wise and source-wise, using their estimated leave-out-one cross-validation likelihoods and corrected Akaike information criteria. We then apply a K-means clustering algorithm on these statistics, to determine the source classification in each band. The final source classification is derived as a combination of the individual filter classifications, resulting in two measures of classification quality, from the averages across the photometric filters of (1) the classifications determined from the closest K-means cluster centers, and (2) the square distances from the clustering centers in the K-means clustering spaces. For a verification set of AGNs and SNe, we show that SV and BL occupy distinct regions in the plane constituted by these measures. We use our clustering method to characterize 4361 extragalactic image difference detected sources, in the first 2.5 yr of the PS1 MDS, into 1529 BL, and 2262 SV, with a purity of 95.00% for AGNs, and 90.97% for SN based on our verification sets. We combine our light-curve classifications with their nuclear or off-nuclear host galaxy offsets, to define a robust photometric sample of 1233 AGNs and 812 SNe. With these two samples, we characterize their variability and host galaxy properties, and identify simple photometric priors that would enable their real-time identification in future wide-field synoptic surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Finite element formulation of fluctuating hydrodynamics for fluids filled with rigid particles using boundary fitted meshes

In this paper, we present a finite element implementation of fluctuating hydrodynamics with a moving boundary fitted mesh for treating the suspended particles. The thermal fluctuations are incorporated into the continuum equations using the Landau and Lifshitz approach [1]. The proposed implementation fulfills the fluctuation–dissipation theorem exactly at the discrete level. Since we restrict the equations to the creeping flow case, this takes the form of a relation between the diffusion coefficient matrix and friction matrix both at the particle and nodal level of the finite elements. Brownian motion of arbitrarily shaped particles in complex confinements can be considered within the present formulation. A multi-step time integration scheme is developed to correctly capture the drift term required in the stochastic differential equation (SDE) describing the evolution of the positions of the particles. The proposed approach is validated by simulating the Brownian motion of a sphere between two parallel plates and the motion of a spherical particle in a cylindrical cavity. The time integration algorithm and the fluctuating hydrodynamics implementation are then applied to study the diffusion and the equilibrium probability distribution of a confined circle under an external harmonic potential.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2018

Stochastic Optimization with Risk Aversion for Virtual Power Plant Operations: A Rolling Horizon Control

While the concept of aggregating and controlling renewable distributed energy resources (DERs) to provide grid services is not new, increasing policy support of DER market participation has driven research and development in algorithms to pool DERs for economically viable market participation. Sandia National Laboratories recently undertook a three-year research program to create the components of a real-world virtual power plant (VPP) that can simultaneously participate in multiple markets. Our research extends current state-of-the-art rolling horizon control through the application of stochastic programming with risk aversion at various time resolutions. Our rolling horizon control consists of (1) day-ahead optimization to produce an hourly aggregate schedule for the VPP operator and (2) sub-hourly optimization for real-time dispatch of each VPP subresource. Both optimization routines leverage a two-stage stochastic program (SP) with risk aversion, and integrate the most up-to-date forecasts to generate probabilistic scenarios in real operating time. Our results demonstrate the benefits to the VPP operator of constructing a stochastic solution regardless of the weather. In more extreme weather, applying risk optimization strategies can dramatically increase the financial viability of the VPP. As a result, the methodologies presented here can be further tailored for optimal control of any VPP asset fleet and its operational requirements.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2018

Occupancy prediction through Markov based feedback recurrent neural network (M-FRNN) algorithm with WiFi probe technology

Accurate occupancy prediction can improve facility control and energy efficiency of buildings. In recent years, buildings’ exiting WiFi infrastructures have been widely studied in the research of occupancy and energy conservation. However, using WiFi to assess occupancy is challenging due to that occupancy information is often characterized stochastically and varies with time and easily disturbed by building components. To overcome such limitations, this study utilizes WiFi probe technology to actively scan WiFi connection requests and responses between access points and network devices of building occupants. With captured signals, this study proposed a Markov based feedback recurrent neural network (M-FRNN) algorithm to model and predict the occupancy profiles. One on-site experiment was conducted to collect ground truth data using camera-based video analysis and the results were used to validate the M-FRNN occupancy prediction model over a 9-day measurement period. From the results, the M-FRNN based occupancy model using WiFi probes shows best accuracies can reach 80.9%, 89.6%, and 93.9% with a tolerance of 2, 3, and 4 occupants respectively. In conclusion, this study demonstrated that WiFi data coupled with stochastic machine learning system can provide a viable alternative to determine a building's occupancy profile.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Criticality analysis of nuclear binding energy neural networks

Machine learning methods, in particular deep learning methods such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) with many layers, have become widespread and useful tools in nuclear physics. However, these ANNs are typically treated as ‘black boxes’, with their architecture (width, depth, and weight/bias initialization) and the training algorithm and parameters chosen empirically by optimizing learning based on limited exploration. We test a non-empirical approach to understanding and optimizing nuclear physics ANNs by adapting a criticality analysis based on renormalization group flows in terms of the hyperparameters for weight/bias initialization, training rates, and the ratio of depth to width. This treatment utilizes the statistical properties of neural network initialization to find a generating functional for network outputs at any layer, allowing for a path integral formulation of the ANN outputs as a Euclidean statistical field theory. We use a prototypical example to test the applicability of this approach: a simple ANN for nuclear binding energies. We find that with training using a stochastic gradient descent optimizer, the predicted criticality behavior is realized, and optimal performance is found with critical tuning. However, the use of an adaptive learning algorithm leads to somewhat superior results without concern for tuning and thus obscures the analysis. Nevertheless, the criticality analysis offers a way to look within the black box of ANNs, which is a first step towards potential improvements in network performance beyond using adaptive optimizers.

artificial neural network↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-driven optimization of mixed-integer bi-level multi-follower integrated planning and scheduling problems under demand uncertainty

The coordination of interconnected elements across the different layers of the supply chain is essential for all industrial processes and the key to optimal decision-making. Yet, the modeling and optimization of such interdependent systems are still burdensome. Here we address the simultaneous modeling and optimization of medium-term planning and short-term scheduling problems under demand uncertainty using mixed-integer bi-level multi-follower programming and data-driven optimization. Bi-level multi-follower programs model the natural hierarchy between different layers of supply chain management holistically, while scenario analysis and data-driven optimization allow us to retrieve the guaranteed feasible solutions of the integrated formulation under various demand considerations. We address the data-driven optimization of this challenging class of problems using the DOMINO framework, which was initially developed to solve single-leader single-follower bi-level optimization problems to guaranteed feasibility. This framework is extended to solve single-leader multi-follower stochastic formulations and its performance is characterized by well-known single and multi-product process scheduling case studies. Through our data-driven algorithmic approach, we present guaranteed feasible solutions to linear and nonlinear mixed-integer bi-level formulations of simultaneous planning and scheduling problems and further characterize the effects of the scheduling level complexity on the solution performance, which spans over several hundred continuous and binary variables, and thousands of constraints.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2017

A backward Monte-Carlo method for time-dependent runaway electron simulations

Kinetic descriptions of runaway electrons (REs) are usually based on Fokker-Planck models that determine the probability distribution function of REs in 2-dimensional momentum space. Despite the simplification involved, the Fokker-Planck equation can rarely be solved analytically and direct numerical approaches [e.g., continuum and particle-based Monte Carlo (MC)] can be time consuming, especially in the computation of asymptotic-type observables including the runaway probability, the slowing-down and runaway mean times, and the energy limit probability. In this study, we present a novel backward MC approach to these problems based on backward stochastic differential equations that describe the dynamics of the runaway probability by means of the Feynman-Kac theory. The key ingredient of the backward MC algorithm is to place all the particles in a runaway state and simulate them backward from the terminal time to the initial time. As such, our approach can provide much faster convergence than direct MC methods (by significantly reducing the number of particles required to achieve a prescribed accuracy) while at the same time maintaining the advantages of particle-based methods (compared to continuum approaches). The proposed algorithm is unconditionally stable and can be parallelized as easy as the direct MC method, and its extension to dimensions higher than two is straightforward, thus paving the way for conducting large-scale RE simulation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Noise propagation in hybrid models of nonlinear systems: The Ginzburg–Landau equation

Every physical phenomenon can be described by multiple models with varying degrees of fidelity. The computational cost of higher fidelity models (e.g., molecular dynamics simulations) is invariably higher than that of their lower fidelity counterparts (e.g., a continuum model based on differential equations). While the former might not be suitable for large-scale simulations, the latter are not universally valid. Hybrid algorithms provide a compromise between the computational efficiency of a coarse-scale model and the representational accuracy of a fine-scale description. This is achieved by conducting a fine-scale computation in subdomains where it is absolutely required (e.g., due to a local breakdown of a continuum model) and coupling it with a coarse-scale computation in the rest of a computational domain. We analyze the effects of random fluctuations generated by the fine-scale component of a nonlinear hybrid on the hybrid's overall accuracy and stability. Two variants of the time-dependent Ginzburg–Landau equation (GLE) and their discrete representations provided by a nearest-neighbor Ising model serve as a computational testbed. Our analysis shows that coupling these descriptions in a one-dimensional simulation leads to erroneous results. Adding a random source term to the GLE provides accurate prediction of the mean behavior of the quantity of interest (magnetization). It also allows the two GLE variants to correctly capture the strength of the microscale fluctuations. Our work demonstrates the importance of fine-scale noise in hybrid simulations, and suggests the need for replacing an otherwise deterministic coarse-scale component of the hybrid with its stochastic counterpart.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resilient NdFeB magnet recycling under the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic: Stochastic programming and Benders decomposition

Neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets are the most powerful magnets per unit volume sold in the commercial market. Despite the increasing demand for clean energy applications such as electric vehicles and wind turbines, disruptive events including the COVID-19 pandemic have caused significant uncertainties in the supply and demand for NdFeB magnets. Therefore, this study aims to alleviate the risk of supply shortage for NdFeB magnets and the containing critical materials, rare-earth elements (REEs), through the development of a resilient reverse supply chain and logistics network design. We develop scenarios to model the unique impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the proposed business, incorporating both disruption intensity and recovery rate. We formulate a chance-constrained two-stage stochastic programming model to maximize the profit while guaranteeing the network resiliency against disruption risks. To solve the problem in large-scale instances, we develop an efficient Benders decomposition algorithm that reduces the computational time by 98.5% on average compared to the default CPLEX algorithm. When applied to the United States, the model suggests the optimal facility locations, processing capacities, inventory levels, and material flows for NdFeB magnet recyclers that could meet 99.7% of the demand. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to incorporate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic to design a resilient NdFeB magnet recycling supply chain and logistics network, leveraging risk-averse stochastic programming.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Semiparametric modeling: Correcting low-dimensional model error in parametric models

In this paper, a semiparametric modeling approach is introduced as a paradigm for addressing model error arising from unresolved physical phenomena. Our approach compensates for model error by learning an auxiliary dynamical model for the unknown parameters. Practically, the proposed approach consists of the following steps. Given a physics-based model and a noisy data set of historical observations, a Bayesian filtering algorithm is used to extract a time-series of the parameter values. Subsequently, the diffusion forecast algorithm is applied to the retrieved time-series in order to construct the auxiliary model for the time evolving parameters. The semiparametric forecasting algorithm consists of integrating the existing physics-based model with an ensemble of parameters sampled from the probability density function of the diffusion forecast. To specify initial conditions for the diffusion forecast, a Bayesian semiparametric filtering method that extends the Kalman-based filtering framework is introduced. In difficult test examples, which introduce chaotically and stochastically evolving hidden parameters into the Lorenz-96 model, we show that our approach can effectively compensate for model error, with forecasting skill comparable to that of the perfect model.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2013

An iterative stochastic ensemble method for parameter estimation of subsurface flow models

Parameter estimation for subsurface flow models is an essential step for maximizing the value of numerical simulations for future prediction and the development of effective control strategies. We propose the iterative stochastic ensemble method (ISEM) as a general method for parameter estimation based on stochastic estimation of gradients using an ensemble of directional derivatives. ISEM eliminates the need for adjoint coding and deals with the numerical simulator as a blackbox. The proposed method employs directional derivatives within a Gauss–Newton iteration. The update equation in ISEM resembles the update step in ensemble Kalman filter, however the inverse of the output covariance matrix in ISEM is regularized using standard truncated singular value decomposition or Tikhonov regularization. We also investigate the performance of a set of shrinkage based covariance estimators within ISEM. The proposed method is successfully applied on several nonlinear parameter estimation problems for subsurface flow models. The efficiency of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated by the small size of utilized ensembles and in terms of error convergence rates.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗