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NASA NTRS1975

Operations analysis (study 2.1): Program manual and users guide for the LOVES computer code

Information is provided necessary to use the LOVES Computer Program in its existing state, or to modify the program to include studies not properly handled by the basic model. The Users Guide defines the basic elements assembled together to form the model for servicing satellites in orbit. As the program is a simulation, the method of attack is to disassemble the problem into a sequence of events, each occurring instantaneously and each creating one or more other events in the future. The main driving force of the simulation is the deterministic launch schedule of satellites and the subsequent failure of the various modules which make up the satellites. The LOVES Computer Program uses a random number generator to simulate the failure of module elements and therefore operates over a long span of time typically 10 to 15 years. The sequence of events is varied by making several runs in succession with different random numbers resulting in a Monte Carlo technique to determine statistical parameters of minimum value, average value, and maximum value.

Wray, S. T., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Target Search and Selection for the DI/EPOXI Spacecraft

Upon completion of the Hartley 2 flyby in November 2010, the Deep Impact (DI) spacecraft resided in a solar orbit without possibility for gravity assist with any large body. Conservative estimates of remaining fuel were enough to provide only an 18 m/s impulse on the spacecraft. We present our method and results of our systematic scan of potential small body encounters for DI, and our criteria to narrow the selection to the asteroid 2002 GT as the target flyby body. The mission profile has two deterministic maneuvers to achieve the encounter, the first of which executed on November 25, 2011.

Deep Impact (DI)↗

NASA NTRS2012

Target Search & Selection for the DI/EPOXI Spacecraft

Grebow, Daniel J.↗

DOE OSTI2020

LA17-V-InverseRadTransportProblem-PD2Kb. Final Project Report

In the inverse radiation transport problem, a radiation signal emanating from an unknown object is used to reconstruct geometric and material parameters of the object , e.g., the mass of special nuclear material (SNM), the isotopic composition of the SNM (e.g., the enrichment of 235U), the thickness of shielding, etc. The inverse radiation transport problem is one of the most fundamental and important in the emergency response mission, and has been addressed in previous NA-22 and NA-42/84 investments by using derivative-free optimization methods. Our project was aimed at (i) consolidating previous work by applying polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) for reducing significantly the number of forward model simulations required by derivative-free optimization methods; (ii) developing a general-purpose framework and stand-alone software for solving the inverse radiation transport problem by applying a new “predictive modeling” methodology (predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems, PM_CMPS) which enables the fusing of experimental and computational information; and (iii) developing several benchmarks (for unscattered gamma rays) for demonstrating the quantification of non-Gaussian features (e.g., skewness and kurtosis, which characterize asymmetries and long tails) of response distributions by deterministically and efficiently propagating parameter uncertainties (covariances and higher-order moments, where available) using high-order sensitivities computed by the recently developed comprehensive adjoint sensitivity analysis methodology (C-ASAM). With regard to (i), application of PCE, the most significant accomplishment of this project was an implementation of PCE into INVERSE that significantly reduced computation time for the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) and Differential Evolution (DE) methods. For inverse transport problems with measurements of neutron leakage, neutron multiplication, and neutron-induced gamma-rays, the solution times for the DREAM and DE methods were reduced by factors of 30-300, reducing run times from hours to minutes while maintaining the same accuracy as the standard (non-PCE) DREAM and DE. Speedups were further improved by exploring sparse grid quadrature sets using the Toolkit for Adaptive Stochastic Modeling and Non-Intrusive ApproximatioN (Tasmanian) toolset. An initial exploration of sparse grids indicated that further speedups factors of 5-10 are obtainable. The implementation of PCE in INVERSE is not in a form that users can easily access. With regard to (ii), solving the inverse problem using a predictive modeling paradigm, the most significant accomplishment of this project were the derivation and implementation of adjoint-based second derivatives in neutron and photon transport theory. There are two codes that compute these derivatives. SENSPG computes them for uncollided gamma rays and SENSMG computes them for neutron leakage. SENSMG is open-source code available on github. Other significant accomplishments included a stand-alone code, MULTI-PRED, that implements the predictive modeling paradigm, along with a detailed manual. The code was implemented in the existing INVERSE code for inverse problems, but a head-to-head comparison of inverse methods was not achieved. We also derived and implemented the capability to compute sensitivities for multiplicity measurements into the SENSMG code, and this capability was used in a data assimilation application, but it was not used for solving inverse problems. With regard to (iii), developing benchmarks to demonstrate the importance of high-order sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, the most significant accomplishment of this project were two test problems that showed how important second-order sensitivities are.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Gradient-informed Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for multicomponent CALPHAD model optimization and uncertainty quantification

CALPHAD model parameter optimization is inherently challenging due to non-smooth objective functions, high-dimensional parameter spaces, and the need for uncertainty quantification (UQ). Traditional weighted nonlinear least squares approaches are computationally efficient but local, whereas black-box global optimizers and ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods provide broader exploration at substantial computational cost. The objective of this work is to combine the global exploration capability of gradient-informed Hamiltonian Monte Carlo – specifically the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS) – with local deterministic refinement using BFGS to efficiently optimize multicomponent CALPHAD models with minimal manual intervention. Analytic gradients are computed via the Jansson derivative framework. The methodology is demonstrated on the Cr—Fe binary system and extended to the Cr—Fe—Ni ternary system with 32 degrees of freedom. For Cr—Fe, NUTS achieves comparable or superior optimality relative to ensemble MCMC while requiring over an order-of-magnitude fewer likelihood evaluations. Parameter uncertainties are quantified through NUTS sampling and propagated to thermodynamic observables using local expansion, demonstrating a novel modular approach that combines binary and ternary parameter subsets without requiring global relaxation. These results establish gradient-informed exploration as a scalable strategy for multicomponent CALPHAD optimization and provide a practical route towards efficient higher-order database development with quantified uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2018

Communication: A mean field platform for excited state quantum chemistry

We present a mean field theory for excited states that is broadly analogous to ground state Hartree-Fock theory. Like Hartree-Fock, our approach is deterministic, state-specific, applies a variational principle to a minimally correlated ansatz, produces energy stationary points, relaxes the orbital basis, has a Fock-build cost-scaling, and can serve as the foundation for correlation methods such as perturbation theory and coupled cluster theory. To emphasize this last point, we pair our mean field approach with an excited state analog of second order Møller-Plesset theory and demonstrate that in water, formaldehyde, neon, and stretched lithium fluoride, the resulting accuracy far exceeds that of configuration interaction singles and rivals that of equation of motion coupled cluster.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Multi-Fidelity Gaussian Process Regression Method for Probabilistic Wind Farm Power Curve Estimation

Accurate estimation of the power curve for wind turbines or wind farms is crucial to ensure their efficient operation and management. However, conventional methods for power curve estimation rely either on expensive and infrequent measurements or on low-quality numerical simulations. Moreover, the majority of previous studies on power curve estimation for wind turbines or wind farms focused on deterministic estimation, which provides a point estimate of the relationship between wind speed and power generation. Nevertheless, the deterministic approach fails to consider the inherent uncertainty associated with wind energy production resulting from varying turbine characteristics. This can lead to inaccurate power generation estimation and suboptimal decisions regarding energy management. In this paper, a kernel density estimation (KDE) based Multi-Fidelity Gaussian Process Regression (MFGPR) model is proposed to fuse theoretical power curve data and the ground true measurements to create a mapping of wind speed and wind power. By conducting a case study on an actual wind farm in China, the efficacy of the proposed MFGPR model was demonstrated in characterizing the variability of wind power. The probabilistic MFGPR model was also able to generate confidence intervals that encompassed the measured power, thereby improving the accuracy and confidence in wind power estimation or wind resource assessment. Overall, the proposed MFGPR model offers a reliable approach to integrate high-fidelity ground measurements and theoretical power curve data, resulting in precise wind resource assessment and power estimation.

Gaussian process regression↗

NASA NTRS1996

Structures Division 1994 Annual Report

The NASA Lewis Research Center Structures Division is an international leader and pioneer in developing new structural analysis, life prediction, and failure analysis related to rotating machinery and more specifically to hot section components in air-breathing aircraft engines and spacecraft propulsion systems. The research consists of both deterministic and probabilistic methodology. Studies include, but are not limited to, high-cycle and low-cycle fatigue as well as material creep. Studies of structural failure are at both the micro- and macrolevels. Nondestructive evaluation methods related to structural reliability are developed, applied, and evaluated. Materials from which structural components are made, studied, and tested are monolithics and metal-matrix, polymer-matrix, and ceramic-matrix composites. Aeroelastic models are developed and used to determine the cyclic loading and life of fan and turbine blades. Life models are developed and tested for bearings, seals, and other mechanical components, such as magnetic suspensions. Results of these studies are published in NASA technical papers and reference publication as well as in technical society journal articles. The results of the work of the Structures Division and the bibliography of its publications for calendar year 1994 are presented.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1997

Structures Division

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2008

Figures of Merit for Control Verification

This paper proposes a methodology for evaluating a controller's ability to satisfy a set of closed-loop specifications when the plant has an arbitrary functional dependency on uncertain parameters. Control verification metrics applicable to deterministic and probabilistic uncertainty models are proposed. These metrics, which result from sizing the largest uncertainty set of a given class for which the specifications are satisfied, enable systematic assessment of competing control alternatives regardless of the methods used to derive them. A particularly attractive feature of the tools derived is that their efficiency and accuracy do not depend on the robustness of the controller. This is in sharp contrast to Monte Carlo based methods where the number of simulations required to accurately approximate the failure probability grows exponentially with its closeness to zero. This framework allows for the integration of complex, high-fidelity simulations of the integrated system and only requires standard optimization algorithms for its implementation.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Assessment and Uncertainty Analysis of CO2 Storage Capacity of the Morrow B Sandstone—Farnsworth Field Unit

This paper presents probabilistic methods to estimate the quantity of carbon dioxide (CO2) that can be stored in a mature oil reservoir and analyzes the uncertainties associated with the estimation. This work uses data from the Farnsworth Field Unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas, which is currently undergoing a tertiary recovery process. The input parameters are determined from seismic, core, and fluid analyses. The results of the estimation of the CO2 storage capacity of the reservoir are presented with both expectation curve and log probability plot. The expectation curve provides a range of possible outcomes such as the P90, P50, and P10. The deterministic value is calculated as the statistical mean of the storage capacity. The coefficient of variation and the uncertainty index, P10/P90, is used to analyze the overall uncertainty of the estimations. A relative impact plot is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the input parameters towards the total uncertainty and compared with Monte Carlo. In comparison to the Monte Carlo method, the results are practically the same. The probabilistic technique presented in this paper can be applied in different geological settings as well as other engineering applications.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Generating short-term probabilistic wind power scenarios via nonparametric forecast error density estimators: Generating short-term probabilistic wind power scenarios via nonparametric forecast error density estimators

Forecasts of available wind power are critical in key electric power systems operations planning problems, including economic dispatch and unit commitment. Such forecasts are necessarily uncertain, limiting the reliability and cost effectiveness of operations planning models based on a single deterministic or “point” forecast. A common approach to address this limitation involves the use of a number of probabilistic scenarios, each specifying a possible trajectory of wind power production, with associated probability. We present and analyze a novel method for generating probabilistic wind power scenarios, leveraging available historical information in the form of forecasted and corresponding observed wind power time series. We estimate non-parametric forecast error densities, specifically using epi-spline basis functions, allowing us to capture the skewed and non-parametric nature of error densities observed in real-world data. We then describe a method to generate probabilistic scenarios from these basis functions that allows users to control for the degree to which extreme errors are captured.We compare the performance of our approach to the current state-of-the-art considering publicly available data associated with the Bonneville Power Administration, analyzing aggregate production of a number of wind farms over a large geographic region. Finally, we discuss the advantages of our approach in the context of specific power systems operations planning problems: stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch. Here, our methodology is embodied in the joint Sandia – University of California Davis Prescient software package for assessing and analyzing stochastic operations strategies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

SSA Monte Carlo and Master Equation Modeling of Neutron Leakage Distributions

Strongly stochastic neutron populations in highly subcritical multiplying media containing weak spontaneous fission sources are unique indicators of the presence of SNM. For instance, in neutron multiplicity counting, an extended tail in the count number probability distribution is observed that is a characteristic of and sensitive to the amount of SNM present. Theoretical modeling and efficient computation of stochastic neutron distributions are complementary to experimental measurements and moreover shed light on the fundamental interactions and transport processes that underlie nuclear signatures. Modeling approaches that are intermediate between gross-system level models and high-fidelity but computationally demanding Monte Carlo simulations are of particular interest in this regard. Furthermore we present three advances on existing work in point kinetic or lumped geometry: (i) implementation of the Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (SSA), a system state-updating Monte Carlo method that is more e cient than single-event Monte Carlo in lumped geometries, (ii) application of the backward Master equation to obtain time-gated count moments, and (iii) reconstructing the count number distribution from the deterministically computed moments using a generalized Laguerre polynomial expansion.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2010

Solar Radiation Transport in the Cloudy Atmosphere: A 3D Perspective on Observations and Climate Impacts

The interplay of sunlight with clouds is a ubiquitous and often pleasant visual experience, but it conjures up major challenges for weather, climate, environmental science and beyond. Those engaged in the characterization of clouds (and the clear air nearby) by remote sensing methods are even more confronted. The problem comes, on the one hand, from the spatial complexity of real clouds and, on the other hand, from the dominance of multiple scattering in the radiation transport. The former ingredient contrasts sharply with the still popular representation of clouds as homogeneous plane-parallel slabs for the purposes of radiative transfer computations. In typical cloud scenes the opposite asymptotic transport regimes of diffusion and ballistic propagation coexist. We survey the three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric radiative transfer literature over the past 50 years and identify three concurrent and intertwining thrusts: first, how to assess the damage (bias) caused by 3D effects in the operational 1D radiative transfer models? Second, how to mitigate this damage? Finally, can we exploit 3D radiative transfer phenomena to innovate observation methods and technologies? We quickly realize that the smallest scale resolved computationally or observationally may be artificial but is nonetheless a key quantity that separates the 3D radiative transfer solutions into two broad and complementary classes: stochastic and deterministic. Both approaches draw on classic and contemporary statistical, mathematical and computational physics.

Davis, Anthony B.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Low level coupling scheme between neutronics and thermal-hydraulics based on Anderson acceleration

The simulation of nuclear reactors is a multiphysics problem mixing, amongst other fields, neutron transport and thermal-hydraulics. The simplest and most used approach in multiphysics simulation is based on the coupling of single-physics codes in a black-box fashion. However, in order to reduce the computational time needed for such simulations, case-dependent optimizations are often required. In this paper, we aim at reducing the computational time required to solve a coupled neutronic/thermal-hydraulic steady-state problem on a simplified Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) core. The idea is to deal simultaneously with the coupling of the energy groups of the deterministic neutronic description of the core and its thermal-hydraulic description with the Anderson acceleration. By doing so, the fission source terms are directly accelerated instead of the power map as done in most cases. The power method used to solve the k-eigenvalue problem inside the neutronic solver is thus accelerated with the Anderson acceleration. The numerical experimentations conducted in this work are performed using APOLLO3 and THEDI, and indicate that such coupling strategy improves the convergence rates in terms of number of iterations required and the total computational time. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Fabrication of freeform potassium dihydrogen phosphate crystals by belt-on-wheel polishing for spatially tailored polarization control in high-power lasers

Large-aperture (>30 cm) optical components that provide spatially tailored control of the properties of a laser beam, such as phase, polarization, and amplitude, have been the focus of much research and development in recent years. Such optics can improve energy throughput and target implosion efficiency in high-power laser systems conducting inertial confinement fusion research. Here, a method is demonstrated for fabricating freeform surface topographies into the birefringent crystalline material, potassium dihydrogen phosphate (KDP). Belt-on-wheel polishing with an oil-based fluid, developed to mitigate the deliquescent properties of KDP, is used to deterministically polish a freeform topography into KDP, enabling the fabrication of a wave plate with spatially arbitrary retardance. Testing of the laser-induced damage threshold of belt-on-wheel polished KDP was conducted at a wavelength of 351 nm and a pulse duration of 1 ns. The results revealed that the polished surfaces are highly resistant to laser-induced damage, making them suitable for large-aperture, high-power laser applications.

Urban, Nathaniel D. [Univ. of Rochester, NY (Unite↗

DOE OSTI2020

PORFLOW Implementation of Special Waste from Models for Slit and Engineered Trenches in the E-Area Low Level Waste Facility Performance Assessment

The implementation of special waste forms (SWFs) in the deterministic PORFLOW Slit Trench (ST) and Engineered Trench (ET) models to be used in the next revision of the E-Area Low Level Waste Facility’s (ELLWFs) Performance Assessment (PA) is outlined in this report. Four SWF implementation methods will be used: effective K d , delayed release, solubility-controlled/diffusion-controlled release, and complex SWF model updates. In addition, the implementation of models that address the presence of tall used equipment storage boxes in ST08-10 is considered a special waste form and will be described.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS1975

Meteorological Measurements from Satellite Platforms

The stability of stochastic satellites and the stability and control of flexible satellites were investigated. The effects of random environmental torques and noises in the moments of inertia of spinning and three-axes stabilized satellites were first compared analytically by four methods and by analog simulations. Among the analytical methods, it was shown that the Fokker-Planck formulation yields predictions which most coincide with the simulation results. It was then shown that the required stability criterion of a satellite is quite different from that obtained by a deterministic approach, under the assumption that the environmental and control torques experienced by the satellite are random. Finally, it was demonstrated that, by monitoring the deformations of the flexible elements of a satellite, the effectiveness of the satellite control system can be increased considerably.

Suomi, V. E.↗