Results for “energy efficient computing” — Page 37

DOE OSTI2024

ESM data downscaling: a comparison of super-resolution deep learning models

Abstract Climate projections at fine spatial resolutions are required to conduct accurate risk assessment for critical infrastructure and design adaptation planning. Generating these projections using advanced Earth system models (ESM) requires significant computational resources. To address this issue, various statistical downscaling techniques have been introduced to generate fine-resolution data from coarse-resolution simulations. In this study, we evaluate and compare five deep learning-based downscaling techniques, namely, super-resolution convolutional neural networks, fast super-resolution convolutional neural network ESM, efficient sub-pixel convolutional neural network, enhanced deep residual network (EDRN), and super-resolution generative adversarial network (SRGAN). These techniques are applied to a dataset generated by the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), focusing on key surface variables such as surface temperature, shortwave heat flux, and longwave heat flux. Models are trained and validated using paired fine-resolution (0.25 $$^{\circ }$$ ∘ ) and coarse-resolution (1 $$^{\circ }$$ ∘ ) monthly data obtained from a 9-year simulation. Next, blind testing is performed using monthly data obtained from two different years outside of the training and validation set. To evaluate the efficiency of each technique, different statistical metrics are used, including mean squared error (MSE), peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR), structural similarity index measure (SSIM), and learned perceptual image patch similarity (LPIPS). The results show that EDRN outperforms other algorithms in terms of PSNR, SSIM, and MSE, but struggles to capture fine-scale features in the data. In contrast, SRGAN, a generative model that uses perceptual loss, excels in capturing fine details at boundaries and internal structures, resulting in lower LPIPS than other methods.

Pawar, Nikhil M. (ORCID:0000000211613289)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cluster expansion by transfer learning for phase stability predictions

Recent progress towards universal machine-learned interatomic potentials holds considerable promise for materials discovery. Yet the accuracy of these potentials for predicting phase stability may still be limited. In contrast, cluster expansions provide accurate phase stability predictions but are computationally demanding to parameterize from first principles, especially for structures of low dimension or with a large number of components, such as interfaces or multimetal catalysts. We overcome this trade-off via transfer learning. Using Bayesian inference, we incorporate prior statistical knowledge from machine-learned and physics-based potentials, enabling us to sample the most informative configurations and to efficiently fit first-principles cluster expansions. Furthermore, this algorithm is tested on Pt:Ni, showing robust convergence of the mixing energies as a function of sample size with reduced statistical fluctuations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ba 1−x Sr x FeO 3−δ as an improved oxygen storage material for chemical looping air separation: a computational and experimental study

Chemical looping air separation (CLAS) is a promising technology to generate oxygen-rich gas streams to enable efficient carbon dioxide capture during fossil fuel combustion or gasification. CLAS relies on the capture and release of oxygen from the atmosphere using the redox properties of an oxygen-selective solid oxide carrier. This study investigates the redox characteristics of Ba 1−x Sr x FeO 3−δ (0.0 ≤ x ≤ 0.417, 0.0 ≤ δ ≤ 0.5) using a combination of density functional theory (DFT) calculations and experimental verification using X-ray diffraction, thermogravimetric analysis, and oxygen-temperature-programmed desorption. The DFT computed energies of the Ba 1−x Sr x FeO 3−δ perovskites reveal a composition-dependent transition from hexagonal to cubic phases as the Sr-concentration or oxygen vacancy concentration increases. Oxygen vacancy formation energies of the cubic perovskites are found to be lower than those of their hexagonal counterparts. A low oxygen diffusion barrier of ∼1 eV combined with the thermodynamic preference of Ba 1−x Sr x FeO 3−δ compositions that form in a cubic phase suggests them as promising candidates for oxygen storage applications. The experimental results corroborate this finding by identifying Ba 0.75 Sr 0.25 FeO 3−δ in the cubic phase as an optimal composition offering low-temperature oxygen storage capacities comparable to that of the state-of-the-art Sr 0.75 Ca 0.25 FeO 3−δ perovskite oxygen storage material at 325 °C and 350 °C.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Maximizing long-term biohydrogen production with Clostridium thermocellum for high solids conversion of lignocellulosic biomass

Biological hydrogen production from lignocellulosic biomass sustainably couples organic waste reduction with renewable energy generation. Efficient conversion is challenged by the structural complexity of lignocellulose and resulting recalcitrance to enzymatic degradation. Clostridium thermocellum natively breaks down biomass with highly effective hemi-/cellulases systems (i.e., cellulosomes) and generates hydrogen in anaerobic cultivation, creating a compelling platform for lignocellulosic biohydrogen production. Achieving commercially viable production rates requires balancing high biomass loading and throughput against uniform mixing conditions required for enzyme dispersion, pH and temperature control, and efficient hydrogen and metabolite removal in continuous operation. To address these barriers to process intensification, we implemented novel reactor and process designs for high-solids lignocellulosic biomass fermentations using the C. thermocellum KJC19-9 strain, genetically engineered for co-utilization of cellulose and hemicellulose sugars (i.e., xylose). Via computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling and experimental validation, we achieved a >50% improvement in biohydrogen production with an improved anchor-type impeller morphology, coupled to a threefold reduction in agitation rate. To further reduce rheological constraints and accumulation of toxic metabolites, we then transitioned the process to sequencing fed-batch operation. The resulting process generated 24.87 L H 2 L −1 from 160 g L −1 of deacetylated and mechanically refined (DMR)-pretreated corn stover biomass over 16 days while solubilizing >95% of influent cellulose and hemicellulose, setting a new performance benchmark for continuous production of biohydrogen from lignocellulose.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Design, optimization, and validation of a triply periodic minimal surface based heat exchanger for extreme temperature applications

Heat exchanger (HX) innovation offers potential for significant improvements in energy efficiency for a host of applications including but not limited to aviation and power generation cycles. Triply Periodic Minimal Surfaces (TPMS) have received significant attention in recent years due to their incredibly high surface area density, which makes them very attractive from a heat transfer point of view. Recent efforts have largely focused on thermal-hydraulic characterization of the many available TPMS and the testing of small-scale HX prototypes. However, practical implementation remains largely unexplored, partially due to the extreme computational cost associated with accurately simulating these complex structures. In this work, we present the design, simulation, and optimization of a TPMS-HX for high temperature (900 °C) and pressure (25 MPa) applications. Detailed analysis of HX sub-sections is conducted to define the smallest repeatable section which may be used to characterize the thermal-hydraulic performance of the entire HX, enabling rapid design and iteration with significantly reduced computational cost. Compared to preliminary results for a water-to-water experiment, calibrated heat transfer and pressure drop predictions were within ±5 % and ±10 %, respectively. Optimization results show a 10x increase in volumetric power density over the initial design, which is verified against a parametric exhaustive search of the HX design space. Furthermore, it was found that reducing the unit cell hydraulic diameter cell plays the largest role in increasing heat transfer, increasing the surface area density and enabling a more compact and efficient HX.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Correcting implicit solvation at metal/water interfaces through the incorporation of competitive water adsorption

Conventional continuum solvation models are ubiquitous in computational catalysis, including for describing metal/water interfaces, which are relevant to both solution-phase heterogeneous catalysis and electrocatalysis. Nonetheless, we find that such continuum models qualitatively fail to describe both the adsorption free energy and conformational preference for many organic molecules at such interfaces, largely due to the failure of continuum models to incorporate the role of competitive water adsorption. We develop a simple phenomenological model that accounts for competitive water adsorption and show that the model, when used in conjunction with continuum solvation, provides a dramatic improvement in the description of both adsorption and conformational preference. The model is also extended to additionally incorporate the influence of applied potential at the electrode surface, thus facilitating computationally efficient applications to scenarios including electrocatalysis.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2026

Toward scalable quantum computations of atomic nuclei

We solve the nuclear two-body and three-body bound states via quantum simulations of pionless effective field theory on a lattice in position space. While the employed lattice remains small, the usage of local Hamiltonians including two- and three-body forces ensures that the number of Pauli terms scales linearly with increasing numbers of lattice sites. We use an adaptive ansatz grown from unitary coupled cluster theory to parametrize the ground states of the deuteron and 3 He, compute their corresponding energies, and analyze the scaling of the required computational resources. Our quantum simulations reproduce exact benchmarks for 2 H and 3 He within 100 keV, requiring at most 30 layers in the ansatz and thus resulting in modest circuit depths. Additionally, we find the number of shots required to reach a given precision scales linearly in the lattice size and more mildly in the system size. Furthermore, based on the agreement with exact benchmarks and mild scaling, we conclude that this can be an efficient, scalable approach for quantum computations of nuclear ground states, particularly to prepare initial states for quantum phase estimation or other filtering algorithms.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Open-Source Parallel EMT Simulation Framework

As the integration level of inverter-based resources (IBRs) increases, ensuring the reliable operation of the bulk power systems requires the use of electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation tools to identify and mitigate system-wide stability risks. Conducting EMT studies for large-scale, IBR-rich grids, however, is challenging due to the inherent computational bottleneck caused by the underlying high-fidelity models and required small time steps. This paper introduces ParaEMT: an open-source, generic EMT simulation framework designed to accelerate simulations by leveraging advanced parallel computational technologies, such as high-performance computers. This paper presents a comprehensive exposition of ParaEMT, covering its modeling library, simulation strategy, framework structure, operational procedures, and auxiliary features, alongside its extensible parallel computational architecture. Notably, ParaEMT is a publicly accessible and modularized framework written in Python, thereby facilitating future development and the integration of new models and algorithms. The accuracy and efficiency of ParaEMT are demonstrated by rigorous validations via multiple case studies.

electromagnetic transient simulation↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integrated CO 2 Capture and Conversion to Formate with a Molecular Platinum Bis(diphosphine) Electrocatalyst

Carbon dioxide is a potentially valuable feedstock for carbon-based fuels or commodities but is only available in dilute streams. Many studies have focused on either the capture and concentration of CO 2 or the reduction of pure CO 2 streams. The direct reduction of sorbent-captured CO 2 in an integrated process would skip the energy-intensive CO 2 concentration and sorbent regeneration step. Herein, we report the electrocatalytic reduction of 1,3-bis(2,6-diisopropylphenyl)imidazolium-2-carboxylate (IPr·CO 2 ), which forms quantitatively from the reaction of sorbent 1,3-bis(2,6-diisopropylphenyl)imidazol-2-ylidene (IPr) with 10% and 0.04% CO 2 streams, by catalyst [Pt(dmpe) 2 ](PF 6 ) 2 (dmpe = 1,2-bis(dimethylphosphino)ethane) to formate with >70% Faradaic efficiencies. Unexpectedly, experimental studies indicate that the proton source phenol facilitates rapid decarboxylation of IPr·CO 2 to release CO 2 , which is the substrate for reduction. Kinetic studies determined the rate of hydride transfer from a catalytic intermediate [HPt(dmpe) 2 ](PF 6 ) to form the C–H bond in formate to be 0.22 M –1 s –1 . Further details on the mechanism, transition state energy, and structure for hydride transfer to CO 2 , a common step in CO 2 reduction, were explored using computational methods.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2025

PaleoSTeHM v1.0: a modern, scalable spatiotemporal hierarchical modeling framework for paleo-environmental data

Abstract. Geological records of past environmental change provide crucial insights into long-term climate variability, trends, non-stationarity, and nonlinear feedback mechanisms. However, reconstructing spatiotemporal fields from these records is statistically challenging due to their sparse, indirect, and noisy nature. Here, we present PaleoSTeHM, a scalable and modern framework for spatiotemporal hierarchical modeling of paleo-environmental data. This framework enables the implementation of flexible statistical models that rigorously quantify spatial and temporal variability from geological data while clearly distinguishing measurement and inferential uncertainty from process variability. We illustrate its application by reconstructing temporal and spatiotemporal paleo-sea-level changes across multiple locations. Using various modeling and analysis choices, PaleoSTeHM demonstrates the impact of different methods on inference results and computational efficiency. Our results highlight the critical role of model selection in addressing specific paleo-environmental questions, showcasing the PaleoSTeHM framework's potential to enhance the robustness and transparency of paleo-environmental reconstructions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Extracting and Interpreting Electrochemical Impedance Spectra (EIS) from Physics-Based Models of Lithium-Ion Batteries

This paper implements a highly efficient algorithm to extract electrochemical impedance spectra (EIS) from physics-based battery models (e.g., a P2D model). The mathematical approach is different from how EIS is practiced experimentally. Experimentally, the voltage (current) is harmonically perturbed over a wide range of frequencies and the amplitude and phase shift of the corresponding current (voltage) is measured. The experimental approach can be implemented in simulation software, but is computationally expensive. The approach here is to determine locally linear state-space models from the full physical model. The four Jacobian matrices that are the basis of the state-space models can be derived by numerical differentiation of the physical model. The EIS is then extracted from the state-space model using computationally efficient matrix-manipulation techniques. The algorithm can evaluate the full EIS at an instant in time during a transient, independent of whether the battery is in a stationary state. The approach is also able to separate the full-cell impedance to evaluate partial EIS, such as for a battery anode alone. Although such partial EIS is difficult to measure experimentally, the partial EIS provides valuable insights in interpreting the full-cell EIS.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Toward High-Voltage Cathodes for Zinc-Ion Batteries: Discovery Pipeline and Material Design Rules

Efficient energy storage systems are crucial to address the intermittency of renewable energy sources. As multivalent batteries, Zn-ion batteries (ZIBs), while inherently low voltage, offer a promising low-cost alternative to Li-ion batteries due to the viable use of zinc as the anode. However, to maximize the potential impact of ZIBs, rechargeable cathodes with improved Zn diffusion are needed. To better understand the chemical and structural factors influencing Zn-ion mobility within battery electrode materials, we employ a high-throughput computational screening approach to systematically evaluate candidate intercalation hosts for ZIB cathodes, expanding the chemical search space on empty intercalation hosts that do not contain Zn. We leverage a high-throughput screening funnel to identify promising cathodes in ZIBs, integrating screening criteria with density functional theory (DFT)-based calculations of Zn2+ intercalation and diffusion inside the host materials. Using these data, we identify the design principles that favor Zn-ion mobility in candidate cathode materials. Building on previous work on divalent-ion cathodes, this study broadens the chemical space for next-generation multivalent energy storage systems.

electrodes↗

DOE OSTI2025

Diffusion Model-Guided Inverse Design of Bimetallic Catalysts for Ammonia Decomposition

In the past decade, artificial intelligence and deep learning have played increasingly prominent roles in materials design and discovery. Among these, generative AI models, known for their ability to create unique and complex structures, have emerged as state-of-the-art tools for materials screening due to their high efficiency and low computational cost. In catalysis, one of the major challenges is identifying promising material candidates within an immense chemical space. This challenge can be addressed using generative approaches, such as diffusion-based inverse design models. In this study, we present a machine learning-guided workflow that employed a diffusion model for the inverse design of bimetallic alloy catalysts for low-carbon ammonia decomposition, a key reaction for ammonia emission control and sustainable hydrogen production. Catalyst candidates were evaluated using nitrogen adsorption energy as the key descriptor, inspired by multiscale modeling. The proposed workflow identified low-cost, environmentally friendly catalysts with excellent catalytic performance, which have been validated theoretically and experimentally. Our framework decoupled the generative and property-prediction components, enhancing both flexibility and accuracy in the catalytic material design process.

Adsorption↗

DOE OSTI2024

The ATLAS experiment software on ARM

With an increased dataset obtained during the Run 3 of the LHC at CERN and the even larger expected increase of the dataset by more than one order of magnitude for the HL-LHC, the ATLAS experiment is reaching the limits of the current data processing model in terms of traditional CPU resources based on x86_64 architectures and an extensive program for software upgrades towards the HL-LHC has been set up. The ARM architecture is becoming a competitive and energy efficient alternative. Some surveys indicate its increased presence in HPCs and commercial clouds, and some WLCG sites have expressed their interest. Chip makers are also developing their next generation solutions on ARM architectures, sometimes combining ARM and GPU processors in the same chip. Consequently it is important that the ATLAS software embraces the change and is able to successfully exploit this architecture. We report on the successful porting to ARM of the Athena software framework, which is used by ATLAS for both online and offline computing operations. Furthermore we report on the successful validation of simulation workflows running on ARM resources. For this we have set up an ATLAS Grid site using ARM compatible middleware and containers on Amazon Web Services (AWS) ARM resources. The ARM version of Athena is fully integrated in the regular software build system and distributed in the same way as other software releases. In addition, the workflows have been integrated into the HEPscore benchmark suite which is the planned WLCG wide replacement of the HepSpec06 benchmark used for Grid site pledges. In the overall porting process we have used resources on AWS, Google Cloud Platform (GCP) and CERN. A performance comparison of different architectures and resources will be discussed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning-accelerated path integral molecular dynamics simulations of reactive organic electrolytes

Hydrogen bonded electrolytes that exhibit accelerated proton transport via sequential reactive hops have drawn interest for their promise in clean energy applications. Molecular dynamics simulations of these electrolytes offer the opportunity to uncover microscopic mechanistic details that could be used to design and tune the properties of candidate electrolyte technologies. However, accurately modeling the proton transfer reactions and transport properties that give rise to high charge conductivites in these electrolytes proves computationally challenging because of the need to perform lengthy condensed phase simulations, treating both the electronic and nuclear degrees of freedom quantum mechanically. In this paper, we demonstrate that such a modeling task can be efficiently achieved with the use of density functional theory (DFT)-trained machine learning potentials (MLP) to accelerate path integral molecular dynamics (PIMD) simulations. We highlight the practical utility of this approach by using it to benchmark how closely PIMD simulations employing different DFT exchange–correlation functionals reproduce the composition-dependent densities, diffusion coefficients, and electrical conductivities of mixtures consisting of imidazole and levulinic acid. Even with the speedup afforded by our MLPs, PIMD simulations remain quite expensive. Furthermore, in order to render PIMD more computationally tractable, we introduce and benchmark the accuracy of a ring polymer contraction approach that leverages a computationally efficient short-range MLP to accelerate our PIMD simulations by an additional factor of four.

Chemical bonding↗

DOE OSTI2026

Learned adaptive properties for mitigation of weight perturbations in embedded spiking networks

Recent years have seen an increased importance of neural network inference in edge-based scenarios, which impose size and power constraints requiring novel computing devices. These same edge scenarios may require operating over long periods of time, or exposure to extreme environments, resulting in a drift of neural network weights that cause degraded performance. In searching for ways to develop neural network approaches that perform robustly under these conditions, we propose a biologically-inspired mechanism for the dynamic adaptation of within-neuron parameters that is guided by a global context signal carrying information about perturbations and variability in incoming stimuli. Specifically, we demonstrate that adaptive voltage thresholds or neuronal time constants, when informed by a global context signal, can enable network-level mechanisms to recover from perturbed synaptic weights. Consistent with prior literature, the context-modulated approach is effective for recurrent, but not feedforward networks, by modulating network level dynamics. We demonstrate this approach successfully recovers performance in image classification tasks and spatiotemporal tracking tasks under idealized and Gaussian noise as well as for realistic perturbations from a memristive device when exposed to ionizing radiation. Finally, we discuss how this approach enables the design of robust and energy-efficient neuromorphic systems that perform well, even in resource-constrained scenarios with extreme environments such as edge processing.

context modulation↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗