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NASA NTRS2008

Errors in Sounding of the Atmosphere Using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) Kinetic Temperature Caused by Non-Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium Model Parameters

The vast set of near global and continuous atmospheric measurements made by the SABER instrument since 2002, including daytime and nighttime kinetic temperature (T(sub k)) from 20 to 105 km, is available to the scientific community. The temperature is retrieved from SABER measurements of the atmospheric 15 micron CO2 limb emission. This emission separates from local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) conditions in the rarefied mesosphere and thermosphere, making it necessary to consider the CO2 vibrational state non-LTE populations in the retrieval algorithm above 70 km. Those populations depend on kinetic parameters describing the rate at which energy exchange between atmospheric molecules take place, but some of these collisional rates are not well known. We consider current uncertainties in the rates of quenching of CO2 (v2 ) by N2 , O2 and O, and the CO2 (v2 ) vibrational-vibrational exchange to estimate their impact on SABER T(sub k) for different atmospheric conditions. The T(sub k) is more sensitive to the uncertainty in the latter two and their effects depend on altitude. The T(sub k) combined systematic error due to non-LTE kinetic parameters does not exceed +/- 1.5 K below 95 km and +/- 4-5 K at 100 km for most latitudes and seasons (except for polar summer) if the Tk profile does not have pronounced vertical structure. The error is +/- 3 K at 80 km, +/- 6 K at 84 km and +/- 18 K at 100 km under the less favourable polar summer conditions. For strong temperature inversion layers, the errors reach +/- 3 K at 82 km and +/- 8 K at 90 km. This particularly affects tide amplitude estimates, with errors of up to +/- 3 K.

Garcia-Comas, Maya↗

NASA NTRS2009

Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) Mission Commissioning Phase Orbit Determination Error Analysis

The Magnetospheric MultiScale (MMS) mission commissioning phase starts in a 185 km altitude x 12 Earth radii (RE) injection orbit and lasts until the Phase 1 mission orbits and orientation to the Earth-Sun li ne are achieved. During a limited time period in the early part of co mmissioning, five maneuvers are performed to raise the perigee radius to 1.2 R E, with a maneuver every other apogee. The current baseline is for the Goddard Space Flight Center Flight Dynamics Facility to p rovide MMS orbit determination support during the early commissioning phase using all available two-way range and Doppler tracking from bo th the Deep Space Network and Space Network. This paper summarizes th e results from a linear covariance analysis to determine the type and amount of tracking data required to accurately estimate the spacecraf t state, plan each perigee raising maneuver, and support thruster cal ibration during this phase. The primary focus of this study is the na vigation accuracy required to plan the first and the final perigee ra ising maneuvers. Absolute and relative position and velocity error hi stories are generated for all cases and summarized in terms of the ma ximum root-sum-square consider and measurement noise error contributi ons over the definitive and predictive arcs and at discrete times inc luding the maneuver planning and execution times. Details of the meth odology, orbital characteristics, maneuver timeline, error models, and error sensitivities are provided.

Chung, Lauren R.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Error Representation in Time For Compressible Flow Calculations

Time plays an essential role in most real world fluid mechanics problems, e.g. turbulence, combustion, acoustic noise, moving geometries, blast waves, etc. Time dependent calculations now dominate the computational landscape at the various NASA Research Centers but the accuracy of these computations is often not well understood. In this presentation, we investigate error representation (and error control) for time-periodic problems as a prelude to the investigation of feasibility of error control for stationary statistics and space-time averages. o These statistics and averages (e.g. time-averaged lift and drag forces) are often the output quantities sought by engineers. o For systems such as the Navier-Stokes equations, pointwise error estimates deteriorate rapidly which increasing Reynolds number while statistics and averages may remain well behaved.

Barth, Timothy J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Automation of Commanding at NASA: Reducing Human Error in Space Flight

Automation has been implemented in many different industries to improve efficiency and reduce human error. Reducing or eliminating the human interaction in tasks has been proven to increase productivity in manufacturing and lessen the risk of mistakes by humans in the airline industry. Human space flight requires the flight controllers to monitor multiple systems and react quickly when failures occur so NASA is interested in implementing techniques that can assist in these tasks. Using automation to control some of these responsibilities could reduce the number of errors the flight controllers encounter due to standard human error characteristics. This paper will investigate the possibility of reducing human error in the critical area of manned space flight at NASA.

Dorn, Sarah J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Injecting Errors for Testing Built-In Test Software

Two algorithms have been conceived to enable automated, thorough testing of Built-in test (BIT) software. The first algorithm applies to BIT routines that define pass/fail criteria based on values of data read from such hardware devices as memories, input ports, or registers. This algorithm simulates effects of errors in a device under test by (1) intercepting data from the device and (2) performing AND operations between the data and the data mask specific to the device. This operation yields values not expected by the BIT routine. This algorithm entails very small, permanent instrumentation of the software under test (SUT) for performing the AND operations. The second algorithm applies to BIT programs that provide services to users application programs via commands or callable interfaces and requires a capability for test-driver software to read and write the memory used in execution of the SUT. This algorithm identifies all SUT code execution addresses where errors are to be injected, then temporarily replaces the code at those addresses with small test code sequences to inject latent severe errors, then determines whether, as desired, the SUT detects the errors and recovers

Gender, Thomas K.↗

NASA NTRS2010

MISSE 2 PEACE Polymers Experiment Atomic Oxygen Erosion Yield Error Analysis

Atomic oxygen erosion of polymers in low Earth orbit (LEO) poses a serious threat to spacecraft performance and durability. To address this, 40 different polymer samples and a sample of pyrolytic graphite, collectively called the PEACE (Polymer Erosion and Contamination Experiment) Polymers, were exposed to the LEO space environment on the exterior of the International Space Station (ISS) for nearly 4 years as part of the Materials International Space Station Experiment 1 & 2 (MISSE 1 & 2). The purpose of the PEACE Polymers experiment was to obtain accurate mass loss measurements in space to combine with ground measurements in order to accurately calculate the atomic oxygen erosion yields of a wide variety of polymeric materials exposed to the LEO space environment for a long period of time. Error calculations were performed in order to determine the accuracy of the mass measurements and therefore of the erosion yield values. The standard deviation, or error, of each factor was incorporated into the fractional uncertainty of the erosion yield for each of three different situations, depending on the post-flight weighing procedure. The resulting error calculations showed the erosion yield values to be very accurate, with an average error of 3.30 percent.

McCarthy, Catherine E.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Error Propagation Analysis in the SAE Architecture Analysis and Design Language (AADL) and the EDICT Tool Framework

This report documents the capabilities of the EDICT tools for error modeling and error propagation analysis when operating with models defined in the Architecture Analysis & Design Language (AADL). We discuss our experience using the EDICT error analysis capabilities on a model of the Scalable Processor-Independent Design for Enhanced Reliability (SPIDER) architecture that uses the Reliable Optical Bus (ROBUS). Based on these experiences we draw some initial conclusions about model based design techniques for error modeling and analysis of highly reliable computing architectures.

LaValley, Brian W.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Improved Systematic Pointing Error Model for the DSN Antennas

New pointing models have been developed for large reflector antennas whose construction is founded on elevation over azimuth mount. At JPL, the new models were applied to the Deep Space Network (DSN) 34-meter antenna s subnet for corrections of their systematic pointing errors; it achieved significant improvement in performance at Ka-band (32-GHz) and X-band (8.4-GHz). The new models provide pointing improvements relative to the traditional models by a factor of two to three, which translate to approximately 3-dB performance improvement at Ka-band. For radio science experiments where blind pointing performance is critical, the new innovation provides a new enabling technology. The model extends the traditional physical models with higher-order mathematical terms, thereby increasing the resolution of the model for a better fit to the underlying systematic imperfections that are the cause of antenna pointing errors. The philosophy of the traditional model was that all mathematical terms in the model must be traced to a physical phenomenon causing antenna pointing errors. The traditional physical terms are: antenna axis tilts, gravitational flexure, azimuth collimation, azimuth encoder fixed offset, azimuth and elevation skew, elevation encoder fixed offset, residual refraction, azimuth encoder scale error, and antenna pointing de-rotation terms for beam waveguide (BWG) antennas. Besides the addition of spherical harmonics terms, the new models differ from the traditional ones in that the coefficients for the cross-elevation and elevation corrections are completely independent and may be different, while in the traditional model, some of the terms are identical. In addition, the new software allows for all-sky or mission-specific model development, and can utilize the previously used model as an a priori estimate for the development of the updated models.

Rochblatt, David J.↗

NASA NTRS2012

New Approaches to Quantifying Transport Model Error in Atmospheric CO2 Simulations

In recent years, much progress has been made in observing CO2 distributions from space. However, the use of these observations to infer source/sink distributions in inversion studies continues to be complicated by difficulty in quantifying atmospheric transport model errors. We will present results from several different experiments designed to quantify different aspects of transport error using the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). In the first set of experiments, an ensemble of simulations is constructed using perturbations to parameters in the model s moist physics and turbulence parameterizations that control sub-grid scale transport of trace gases. Analysis of the ensemble spread and scales of temporal and spatial variability among the simulations allows insight into how parameterized, small-scale transport processes influence simulated CO2 distributions. In the second set of experiments, atmospheric tracers representing model error are constructed using observation minus analysis statistics from NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The goal of these simulations is to understand how errors in large scale dynamics are distributed, and how they propagate in space and time, affecting trace gas distributions. These simulations will also be compared to results from NASA's Carbon Monitoring System Flux Pilot Project that quantified the impact of uncertainty in satellite constrained CO2 flux estimates on atmospheric mixing ratios to assess the major factors governing uncertainty in global and regional trace gas distributions.

Ott, L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

CREME96 and Related Error Rate Prediction Methods

Predicting the rate of occurrence of single event effects (SEEs) in space requires knowledge of the radiation environment and the response of electronic devices to that environment. Several analytical models have been developed over the past 36 years to predict SEE rates. The first error rate calculations were performed by Binder, Smith and Holman. Bradford and Pickel and Blandford, in their CRIER (Cosmic-Ray-Induced-Error-Rate) analysis code introduced the basic Rectangular ParallelePiped (RPP) method for error rate calculations. For the radiation environment at the part, both made use of the Cosmic Ray LET (Linear Energy Transfer) spectra calculated by Heinrich for various absorber Depths. A more detailed model for the space radiation environment within spacecraft was developed by Adams and co-workers. This model, together with a reformulation of the RPP method published by Pickel and Blandford, was used to create the CR ME (Cosmic Ray Effects on Micro-Electronics) code. About the same time Shapiro wrote the CRUP (Cosmic Ray Upset Program) based on the RPP method published by Bradford. It was the first code to specifically take into account charge collection from outside the depletion region due to deformation of the electric field caused by the incident cosmic ray. Other early rate prediction methods and codes include the Single Event Figure of Merit, NOVICE, the Space Radiation code and the effective flux method of Binder which is the basis of the SEFA (Scott Effective Flux Approximation) model. By the early 1990s it was becoming clear that CREME and the other early models needed Revision. This revision, CREME96, was completed and released as a WWW-based tool, one of the first of its kind. The revisions in CREME96 included improved environmental models and improved models for calculating single event effects. The need for a revision of CREME also stimulated the development of the CHIME (CRRES/SPACERAD Heavy Ion Model of the Environment) and MACREE (Modeling and Analysis of Cosmic Ray Effects in Electronics). The Single Event Figure of Merit method was also revised to use the solar minimum galactic cosmic ray spectrum and extended to circular orbits down to 200 km at any inclination. More recently a series of commercial codes was developed by TRAD (Test & Radiations) which includes the OMERE code which calculates single event effects. There are other error rate prediction methods which use Monte Carlo techniques. In this chapter the analytic methods for estimating the environment within spacecraft will be discussed.

Adams, James H., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Error Propagation in a System Model

Embodiments of the present subject matter can enable the analysis of signal value errors for system models. In an example, signal value errors can be propagated through the functional blocks of a system model to analyze possible effects as the signal value errors impact incident functional blocks. This propagation of the errors can be applicable to many models of computation including avionics models, synchronous data flow, and Kahn process networks.

Schloegel, Kirk↗

NASA NTRS2013

Error Budget for a Calibration Demonstration System for the Reflected Solar Instrument for the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory

A goal of the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission is to observe highaccuracy, long-term climate change trends over decadal time scales. The key to such a goal is to improving the accuracy of SI traceable absolute calibration across infrared and reflected solar wavelengths allowing climate change to be separated from the limit of natural variability. The advances required to reach on-orbit absolute accuracy to allow climate change observations to survive data gaps exist at NIST in the laboratory, but still need demonstration that the advances can move successfully from to NASA and/or instrument vendor capabilities for spaceborne instruments. The current work describes the radiometric calibration error budget for the Solar, Lunar for Absolute Reflectance Imaging Spectroradiometer (SOLARIS) which is the calibration demonstration system (CDS) for the reflected solar portion of CLARREO. The goal of the CDS is to allow the testing and evaluation of calibration approaches, alternate design and/or implementation approaches and components for the CLARREO mission. SOLARIS also provides a test-bed for detector technologies, non-linearity determination and uncertainties, and application of future technology developments and suggested spacecraft instrument design modifications. The resulting SI-traceable error budget for reflectance retrieval using solar irradiance as a reference and methods for laboratory-based, absolute calibration suitable for climatequality data collections is given. Key components in the error budget are geometry differences between the solar and earth views, knowledge of attenuator behavior when viewing the sun, and sensor behavior such as detector linearity and noise behavior. Methods for demonstrating this error budget are also presented.

radiometric calibration↗

NASA NTRS2015

A New Formulation of the Filter-Error Method for Aerodynamic Parameter Estimation in Turbulence

A new formulation of the filter-error method for estimating aerodynamic parameters in nonlinear aircraft dynamic models during turbulence was developed and demonstrated. The approach uses an estimate of the measurement noise covariance to identify the model parameters, their uncertainties, and the process noise covariance, in a relaxation method analogous to the output-error method. Prior information on the model parameters and uncertainties can be supplied, and a post-estimation correction to the uncertainty was included to account for colored residuals not considered in the theory. No tuning parameters, needing adjustment by the analyst, are used in the estimation. The method was demonstrated in simulation using the NASA Generic Transport Model, then applied to the subscale T-2 jet-engine transport aircraft flight. Modeling results in different levels of turbulence were compared with results from time-domain output error and frequency- domain equation error methods to demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach.

Grauer, Jared A.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Calibration/Validation Error Budgets, Uncertainties, Traceability and Their Importance to Imaging Spectrometry

Knowledge of uncertainties and errors are essential for comparisons of remote sensing data across time, space, and spectral domains. Vicarious radiometric calibration is used to demonstrate the need for uncertainty knowledge and to provide an example error budget. The sample error budget serves as an example of the questions and issues that need to be addressed by the calibrationvalidation community as accuracy requirements for imaging spectroscopy data will continue to become more stringent in the future. Error budgets will also be critical to ensure consistency between the range of imaging spectrometers expected to be launched in the next five years.

Thome, K.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Role of Forcing Uncertainty and Background Model Error Characterization in Snow Data Assimilation

Accurate specification of the model error covariances in data assimilation systems is a challenging issue. Ensemble land data assimilation methods rely on stochastic perturbations of input forcing and model prognostic fields for developing representations of input model error covariances. This article examines the limitations of using a single forcing dataset for specifying forcing uncertainty inputs for assimilating snow depth retrievals. Using an idealized data assimilation experiment, the article demonstrates that the use of hybrid forcing input strategies (either through the use of an ensemble of forcing products or through the added use of the forcing climatology) provide a better characterization of the background model error, which leads to improved data assimilation results, especially during the snow accumulation and melt-time periods. The use of hybrid forcing ensembles is then employed for assimilating snow depth retrievals from the AMSR2 (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2) instrument over two domains in the continental USA with different snow evolution characteristics. Over a region near the Great Lakes, where the snow evolution tends to be ephemeral, the use of hybrid forcing ensembles provides significant improvements relative to the use of a single forcing dataset. Over the Colorado headwaters characterized by large snow accumulation, the impact of using the forcing ensemble is less prominent and is largely limited to the snow transition time periods. The results of the article demonstrate that improving the background model error through the use of a forcing ensemble enables the assimilation system to better incorporate the observational information.

assimilation↗

NASA NTRS2017

Numerical Experiments in Error Control for Sound Propagation Using a Damping Layer Boundary Treatment

This paper presents results from numerical experiments for controlling the error caused by a damping layer boundary treatment when simulating the propagation of an acoustic signal from a continuous pressure source. The computations are with the 2D Linearized Euler Equations (LEE) for both a uniform mean flow and a steady parallel jet. The numerical experiments are with algorithms that are third, fifth, seventh and ninth order accurate in space and time. The numerical domain is enclosed in a damping layer boundary treatment. The damping is implemented in a time accurate manner, with simple polynomial damping profiles of second, fourth, sixth and eighth power. At the outer boundaries of the damping layer the propagating solution is uniformly set to zero. The complete boundary treatment is remarkably simple and intrinsically independant from the dimension of the spatial domain. The reported results show the relative effect on the error from the boundary treatment by varying the damping layer width, damping profile power, damping amplitude, propagtion time, grid resolution and algorithm order. The issue that is being addressed is not the accuracy of the numerical solution when compared to a mathematical solution, but the effect of the complete boundary treatment on the numerical solution, and to what degree the error in the numerical solution from the complete boundary treatment can be controlled. We report maximum relative absolute errors from just the boundary treatment that range from O[10-2] to O[10-7].

Algorithm↗

NASA NTRS2016

Modeling SMAP Spacecraft Attitude Control Estimation Error Using Signal Generation Model

Two ground simulation software are used to model the SMAP spacecraft dynamics. The CAST software uses a higher fidelity model than the ADAMS software. The ADAMS software models the spacecraft plant, controller and actuator models, and assumes a perfect sensor and estimator model. In this simulation study, the spacecraft dynamics results from the ADAMS software are used as CAST software is unavailable. The main source of spacecraft dynamics error in the higher fidelity CAST software is due to the estimation error. A signal generation model is developed to capture the effect of this estimation error in the overall spacecraft dynamics. Then, this signal generation model is included in the ADAMS software spacecraft dynamics estimate such that the results are similar to CAST. This signal generation model has similar characteristics mean, variance and power spectral density as the true CAST estimation error. In this way, ADAMS software can still be used while capturing the higher fidelity spacecraft dynamics modeling from CAST software.

Soil Moisture Active Passive↗

NASA NTRS2017

Automatic Estimation of Verified Floating-Point Round-Off Errors via Static Analysis

This paper introduces a static analysis technique for computing formally verified round-off error bounds of floating-point functional expressions. The technique is based on a denotational semantics that computes a symbolic estimation of floating-point round-o errors along with a proof certificate that ensures its correctness. The symbolic estimation can be evaluated on concrete inputs using rigorous enclosure methods to produce formally verified numerical error bounds. The proposed technique is implemented in the prototype research tool PRECiSA (Program Round-o Error Certifier via Static Analysis) and used in the verification of floating-point programs of interest to NASA.

Moscato, Mariano↗