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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 667 records · Page 37
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Sustainable, degradable and malleable low-dielectric-constant thermosets derived from biomass for recyclable green electronics

In view of their excellent thermal and chemical resistance, favorable adhesion properties, high tensile strength, and other advantages, epoxy thermosets have numerous industrial applications such as coating, adhesive, and composite material production. However, bisphenol A (BPA)-based resins, which account for a significant fraction of the above thermosets, adversely affect human health by interfering with the normal functioning of the endocrine system and cannot be easily decomposed and recycled. Herein, degradable and sustainable bio-based epoxy thermosets with crosslinked network structures are prepared by the epoxidation of isosorbide with epichlorohydrin and the curing of the produced isosorbide diglycidyl ether (ISDGE) with cyclic lactones through a cationic ring-opening reaction. The ISDGE thermosets fully decompose into soluble and recyclable products under mildly basic conditions within three days, which is ascribed to the presence of ester moieties within the polymer network structure. Compared to a representative BPA-based epoxy, ISDGE-based thermosets exhibit lower dielectric constants and are more flexible. Moreover, the glass fibers in ISDGE-based prepregs can be fully recovered after on-demand degradation. Furthermore, our work provides promising eco-friendly alternatives to conventional epoxy thermosets and paves the way for the reduction of plastic waste generation and the development of recyclable green electronics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analytic Gradients for Equation-of-Motion Coupled Cluster with Single, Double, and Perturbative Triple Excitations

Understanding the process of molecular photoexcitation is crucial in various fields, including drug development, materials science, photovoltaics, and more. The electronic vertical excitation energy is a critical property, for example in determining the singlet-triplet gap of chromophores. However, a full understanding of excited-state processes requires additional explorations of the excited-state potential energy surface and electronic properties, which is greatly aided by the availability of analytic energy gradients. Owing to its robust high accuracy over a wide range of chemical problems, equation-of-motion coupled-cluster with single and double excitations (EOM-CCSD) is a powerful method for predicting excited state properties, and the implementation of analytic gradients of many EOM-CCSD (excitation energies, ionization potentials, electron attachment energies, etc.) along with numerous successful applications high- lights the flexibility of the method. In specific cases where a higher level of accuracy is needed or in more complex electronic structures, the inclusion of triple excitations becomes essential, for example, in the EOM-CCSD* approach of Saeh and Stanton. In this work, we derive and implement for the first time the analytic gradients of EOMEE-CCSD*, which also provides a template for analytic gradients of related ex- cited state methods with perturbative triple excitations. Here, the capabilities of analytic EOMEE-CCSD* gradients are illustrated by several representative examples.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Structure of the Electrical Double Layer at the Interface between an Ionic Liquid and Tungsten Oxide in Ion-Gated Transistors

The structure of electrical double layers at electrified interfaces is of utmost importance for electrochemical energy storage as well as printable, flexible, and bioelectronic devices, such as ion-gated transistors (IGTs). Here we report a study based on atomic force microscopy force–distance profiling on electrical double layers forming at the interface between the ionic liquid 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide and sol–gel films of mesoporous tungsten oxide. Here, we successfully followed, under in operando conditions, the evolution of the arrangement of the ions at the interface with the tungsten oxide films used as channel materials in IGTs. Our work sheds light on the mechanism of operation of IGTs, thus offering the possibility of optimizing their performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Engineering a disulfide-gated switch in streptavidin enables reversible binding without sacrificing binding affinity

Although high affinity binding between streptavidin and biotin is widely exploited, the accompanying low rate of dissociation prevents its use in many applications where rapid ligand release is also required. To combine extremely tight and reversible binding, we have introduced disulfide bonds into opposite sides of a flexible loop critical for biotin binding, creating streptavidin muteins (M88 and M112) with novel disulfide-switchable binding properties. Crystal structures reveal how each disulfide exerts opposing effects on structure and function. Whereas the disulfide in M112 disrupts the closed conformation to increase k off , the disulfide in M88 stabilizes the closed conformation, decreasing k off 260-fold relative to streptavidin. The simple and efficient reduction of this disulfide increases k off 19,000-fold, thus creating a reversible redox-dependent switch with 70-fold faster dissociation kinetics than streptavidin. The facile control of disulfide formation in M88 will enable the development of many new applications requiring high affinity and reversible binding.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Analysis and Overview of Hybrid Wired and Wireless Bi-Directional EV Charger Systems

Here, this paper analyzes and overviews hybrid wired and wireless bi-directional Electric Vehicle (EV) charging systems with a primary focus on resonant compensation methods that enable a unified power conversion architecture. Four compensation configurations based on series–series and LCC–LCC resonant networks are systematically evaluated for both wired transformer-based and wireless coupler-based operation. The analysis examines how coupling conditions, resonant component selection, and auxiliary compensation tuning influence voltage gain characteristics, resonant tank current magnitude and phase, and operating frequency requirements. Normalized frequency-domain results are presented to directly compare reactive current behavior and voltage regulation capability under wired and wireless operating conditions. A 60 kW bi-directional charger case study is used to demonstrate the feasibility of retaining a common hardware platform while accommodating distinct coupling scenarios through compensation tuning rather than structural modification. The presented results provide design-oriented insights into resonant network selection and compensation strategies for scalable and flexible hybrid EV charging systems.

Hybrid↗
DOE OSTI2020

Collaborative Distribution System Restoration Planning and Real-Time Dispatch Considering Behind-the-Meter DERs

Modern distribution systems are becoming more resilient against power outages thanks to the flexible generation capacity provided by the increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs). Compared to utility-scale DERs, which can be directly controlled by system operators, small-scale, behind-the-meter DERs are much more difficult to coordinate despite being the vast majority. Two major obstacles to the implementation of DERs for service restoration are the coordination of behind-the-meter DERs and the management of uncertainty. In this paper, a novel distribution system restoration strategy is proposed to overcome these two obstacles. The flexibility of be-hind-the-meter DERs is quantified and integrated into the restoration planning models within a hierarchical structure. The model predictive control technique is employed to enable adaptive restoration planning solution adjustments to accommodate fault scenarios and forecast errors. Besides, real-time power dispatch models are proposed to maintain power balance using available DER capability. Comprehensive integration of adaptive restoration planning schemes and real-time dispatch results are achieved through a collaborative restoration framework. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed restoration strategy is verified through a modified IEEE 123-bus system and a real-world utility system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Kinetic frustration by limited bond availability controls the LAT protein condensation phase transition on membranes

LAT is a membrane-linked scaffold protein that undergoes a phase transition to form a two-dimensional protein condensate on the membrane during T cell activation. Governed by tyrosine phosphorylation, LAT recruits various proteins that ultimately enable condensation through a percolation network of discrete and selective protein-protein interactions. Here, we describe detailed kinetic measurements of the phase transition, along with coarse-grained model simulations, that reveal that LAT condensation is kinetically frustrated by the availability of bonds to form the network. Unlike typical miscibility transitions in which compact domains may coexist at equilibrium, the LAT condensates are dynamically arrested in extended states, kinetically trapped out of equilibrium. Modeling identifies the structural basis for this kinetic arrest as the formation of spindle arrangements, favored by limited multivalent binding interactions along the flexible, intrinsically disordered LAT protein. These results reveal how local factors controlling the kinetics of LAT condensation enable formation of different, stable condensates, which may ultimately coexist within the cell.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Voluntary Renewable Energy Procurement Programs in Regulated Utility Markets

Multinational corporations are increasingly purchasing renewable energy (RE) to fulfill international commitments, reduce supply chain emissions, limit environmental impact, and secure stable and affordable electricity. The potential scale of global corporate RE purchasing has been estimated to be nearly 100 GW and growing; however, many markets still lack supportive enabling environments for corporations to access RE through on-site project development or private sector transactions. Even where allowed by law, on-site generation may be insufficient due to space and technical constraints, introducing additional challenges. Utility green pricing and utility green tariff programs backed by renewable energy certificates (RECs), referred to as utility green procurement programs (GPPs) in this report, offer powerful market-based solutions to utilities, regulators, and policymakers to provide corporate and other consumers with RE product options while generating revenue to support RE development. As RE markets expand around the globe, GPPs have proven to be effective mechanisms in market regimes, ranging from fully integrated state-owned utilities to broadly liberalized power markets. GPPs utilize RECs, which are a type of energy attribute certificate and closely resemble guarantees of origin, to track and ultimately monetize RE attributes that corporations and other buyers must procure to demonstrate progress against their RE commitments and make public claims of RE use. Time-tested and transparent REC accounting mechanisms provide market confidence, while at the same time offering flexibility to utilities, regulators, and customers for a range of applications. RECs are used in all types of electricity market structures, as indicated in Figure 1, but REC-based program designs and supporting components differ depending on the type of market. Liberalized markets allow for customers to contract directly with generators for electricity and RECs, while traditionally regulated markets with vertically integrated utility structures may have greater restrictions on generation asset ownership and electricity sales. RE markets can be further defined as being either mandatory or voluntary. Mandatory markets require suppliers to deliver specified amounts of RE to grid customers, such as under a renewable portfolio standard (RPS), while voluntary markets involve no legal mandates, but demand is driven by self-imposed customer goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Regulatory Implications of Embedded Grid Energy Storage

Electricity is unique among commodities in that its supply chain was developed without a storage component. Every other resource commodity has the ability to store excess quantities built into its supply chain – in the form of granaries, warehouses, reservoirs, etc. This embedded storage creates a buffer for mismatches between supply and demand, stabilizing prices and protecting customers. Recent technological advances in cost-competitive energy storage technologies that are scalable and flexible have made the concept of embedded electrical storage feasible, but several regulatory questions remain. This paper summarizes energy regulatory structures in the U.S. and the implications that they would have for embedded storage on the electric grid. Regulatory challenges for embedded storage include the lack of underlying standards, inclusion in planning processes, ownership models, compensation, and metrics. Two possible pathways forward are explored: an incremental one including regulatory guidance regarding the evaluation of embedded storage in existing planning processes, and a complex one involving the revision of existing reliability standards or the development of a new standard specific to embedded storage.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Distributed Embedded Energy Converter Technologies for Marine Renewable Energy (A Technical Report)

The domain of distributed embedded energy converter technologies (DEEC-Tec) is a nascent and underexplored paradigm for harvesting and converting marine renewable energy. The paradigm distinguishes itself through its use of many small distributed embedded energy converters (DEECs) that, ultimately, are assembled through the creation of "DEEC-Tec metamaterials" to create an overall larger marine renewable energy harvesting and converting structure. As an example, such a structure could be an ocean wave energy converter - a converter whose structure is made from various types of DEEC-Tec metamaterials that harvests ocean wave energy and converts that energy into something more useful such as electricity. To that end, DEEC-Tec can be viewed at three different technology levels: (1) individual distributed embedded energy converters, also known as DEECs; (2) DEEC-Tec metamaterials-essentially, pseudo-materials made from the interconnection of many DEECs; and (3) overall larger complete marine renewable energy harvesting-converting structures-these structures being made from DEEC-Tec metamaterials. Arising directly from the application of DEEC-Tec to harvest and convert ocean wave energy are several noteworthy benefits, some of which include: (1) the lack of load concentrations into singular components or subsystems, (2) broad-banded ocean wave energy frequency harvesting and conversion, and (3) inherent redundancy-failure of some individual DEECs does not represent a failure of an entire DEEC-Tec-based WEC. This report describes DEEC-Tec by way of descriptions of those three technology levels: individual DEECs, DEEC-Tec metamaterials, and DEEC-Tec-based WECs. Moreover, the report describes corresponding research approaches and methodologies for related concepts such as DEEC-Tec-based WEC topologies and morphologies in addition to manufacturing and fabrication techniques found suitable for the application of DEEC-Tec within the general domain of marine renewable energy-moving beyond only ocean wave energy conversion.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2022

ORNL_AISD_NiNb

This dataset describes the nickel-niobium solid solution binary alloy, where the two constituent elements nickel (Ni) and niobium (Nb) are randomly placed on an underlying crystal lattice. This dataset for nickel-niobium (Ni-Nb) alloys available includes the formation energy and bulk modulus for each crystal structure. Each atomic sample has a disordered phase which is obtained starting from an initial regular crystal structure of type body-centered cubic (BCC), face-centered cubic (FCC), or hexagonal compact packed (HCP). The geometry optimization ensures that all the alloy samples reached the equilibrium with negative formation energy. We perform geometry optimizations using the LAMMPS simulation package [1], a flexible simulation tool for particle-based materials modeling at the atomic, meso, and continuum scales. We utilized the embedded atom model (EAM) potential for Ni and Nb developed in a previous study [2]. The potential could describe behaviors of the liquid and solid phases of Ni-Nb alloy. The structural factors and angular distributions of three atoms are well-matched with X-ray and ab initio-based molecular dynamics data. We prepared the three different crystals with different initial lattice parameters (3.52 Ã… for FCC, 3.32 Ã… for BCC, and 3.5 Ã… for HCP). We performed energy minimization in two steps. Firstly, we minimized the structures with an isotropic unit cell to minimize the side effects from our arbitrary lattice parameters for all other compositions. Then, we applied geometry optimization with a triclinic (non-orthogonal) unit cell to fully minimize the stress components to calculate the elastic constants. In this procedure, we chose 10,000 as the maximum number of allowable steps aimed at obtaining fully relaxed atomic geometries. The dataset consists of three sets of crystal structures. The first set contains 46,086 irregular crystal structures, each of them with 54 atoms, obtained through optimization starting from a regular BCC crystal structure. The second set contains 24,543 irregular crystal structures, each of them with 32 atoms, obtained through optimization starting from a regular FCC crystal structure. The third set contains 39,303 irregular crystal structures, each of them with 48 atoms, obtained through optimization starting from a regular HCP crystal structure. The atomic configurations within each set span the possible compositional range. The three sets have been unified in a global dataset, which is extremely heterogeneous in terms of crystal structures, lattice volumes, and atomic configurations. Organization of files inside the dataset: the dataset contains three subdirectories called • BCC_opt • FCC_opt • HCP_opt based on the type of initial regular structure used to start the geometry optimization. Inside each of these folders, every atomic structure is identified by a string “A_B_Câ€, where A denotes the number of Nb in the system, B denotes index of structure with a given Nb number, and C denotes the total number of structures generated with a given Nb number. For each optimized crystal structure identified by the unique string of characters “A_B_Câ€, three files are provided: • A_B_C_opt.xyz: The optimized geometries in xyz format • A_B_C_opt.cfg: The optimized geometries in cfg format. It includes cell information and atomic energy, and forces calculated from LAMMPS. • A_B_C.elastic: Raw data of 21 elastic constants from LAMMPS output. • A_B_C.bulk: Calculated upper and lower bounds of bulk modulus and averaged one based on Voigt-Reuss-Hill approach from *.elastic. References: [1] A. P. Thompson, H. M. Aktulga, R. Berger, D. S. Bolintineanu, W. M. Brown, P. S. Crozier, P. J. in 't Veld, A. Kohlmeyer, S. G. Moore, T. D. Nguyen, R. Shan, M. J. Stevens, J. Tranchida, C. Trott, and S. J. Plimpton. LAMMPS - a flexible simulation tool for particle-based materials modeling at the atomic, meso, and continuum scales. Comp. Phys. Comm., 271:108171, 2022. [2] Y Zhang, R Ashcraft, MI Mendelev, CZ Wang, and KF Kelton. Experimental and molecular dynamics simulation study of structure of liquid and amorphous ni62nb38 alloy. The Journal of chemical physics, 145(20):204505, 2016.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Harnessing nanoscale densification for controlling gas selectivity in flexible zeolitic imidazolate frameworks

Flexible metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are promising for gas separation due to their molecular recognition capabilities. However, gate-opening behavior in certain flexible MOFs can reduce gas selectivity, enabling simultaneous adsorption of multiple gases. We introduce a binder-free, pressure-free densification process to enhance gas selectivity in flexible zeolitic imidazolate frameworks (ZIF-7 and ZIF-9) by optimizing nanoparticle packing. Unlike powders, the densified ZIF-7 and ZIF-9 retain rhombohedral crystal structures after solvent removal, confirmed via synchrotron powder X-ray diffraction. This process modifies adsorption behavior by introducing a diffusion barrier, enabling diffusivity-driven kinetic separation and enhanced CO2/hydrocarbon selectivity. At 0.5 bar, ZIF-7 mono shows 2×, 4×, and 9.5× higher CO 2 selectivity over C 2 H 2 , C 2 H 4 , and C 2 H 6 , respectively, versus ZIF-7 pwd . ZIF-9 mono similarly shows 6.5×, 3×, and 39× improvements over ZIF-9 pwd . Both monoliths outperform powders in ternary gas mixtures. This study provides a novel strategy to control gate opening and enhance gas selectivity in flexible MOFs for practical separation applications.

CO2/hydrocarbon separation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the Influence of Linker Substitution and Ratios on Cooperative Framework Flexibility through the Mixed-Linker Approach

Cooperatively flexible metal–organic frameworks that exhibit step-shaped, or Type V-like, adsorption–desorption profiles can lower requisite pressure–temperature swings and thus energy input, necessary for an array of gas storage, delivery, and separations applications. However, such benefits are lost if the pressure threshold of the adsorption and desorption steps at a given temperature does not match the conditions dictated by the application, such as H 2 storage and delivery or olefin–paraffin separations. Unfortunately, the discovery of cooperatively flexible frameworks remains wholly serendipitous and de novo design remains impossible. Accordingly, there is a great need to further our understanding of flexibility such that we can intuitively derivatize known frameworks and, ultimately, design entirely new ones to meet the requisite conditions of energy-consumptive processes. In this work, we demonstrate that the mixed-linker, or multivariate, approach is a powerful tool for the derivation of a known flexible framework, with variances in linker substitution and ratio giving rise to a family wherein significant changes to the step-shaped adsorption–desorption profiles for multiple adsorbates are observed. Specifically, we report 12 isostructural mixed-linker derivatives of CdIF-13 (sod–Cd(benzimidazolate) 2 ) with six point-modified benzimidazole linkers spontaneously synthesized through prototypical solvothermal conditions. Furthermore, each is shown by PXRD to exhibit similar reversible flexibility to CdIF-13 and by TGA and DSC to be similarly thermally stable. Isothermal gas adsorption measurements with N 2 at 77 K, CO 2 at 195 K, and propane at 298 K demonstrate the wide-ranging, adsorbate-dependent effects of linker substitution and ratio, including dramatic reductions in the adsorption threshold pressure, evolution of multiple steps, and complete absence of observable adsorption. Aided by prior crystallographic characterization of CdIF-13, the observed trends were analyzed in an attempt to resolve the influence of linker substitution and ratios on structural behavior. In total, this work illustrates how the mixed-linker approach enables the synthesis and study of a large catalog of functionally modified frameworks, which can help identify the variables that influence flexibility and sorption behavior.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimizing Desalination Operations for Energy Flexibility

Despite the value of energy optimization in desalination processes, modeling dynamic operations for monthly billing periods has remained a computational challenge. This work proposes a framework for energy flexibility optimization, which includes new modeling features for independent operation of parallel skids, start-up delays associated with chemical stabilization, the consideration of industrial energy tariff structures, and inclusion of hourly electrical carbon intensities. This is done using a modular and computationally efficient formulation that guarantees a globally optimal solution with standard optimization solvers. In this study, the approach is demonstrated in two distinct case studies: a seawater desalination plant in Santa Barbara, CA, and an indirect potable reuse facility in San Jose, CA. Trends predicted from the model are validated against operational facility measurements from a demand response shutdown event. Preliminary results show that optimizing energy flexibility can result in 18.51% monthly cost savings over energy efficiency-optimized operation. The value extracted from a facility-wide shutdown during peak electricity price hours is hampered by start-up delays in post-treatment chemical stabilization. In cases in which a facility does not have much excess capacity, using a flow equalization tank or operating over a wide recovery range may be cost-effective.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

A novel approach to RF power coupling in Radio-Frequency Quadrupole (RFQ) structures: built-in coaxial double-loop coupling port

Efficient and reliable RF power couplers in accelerating cavities require precise impedance matching and mechanical stability to ensure optimal beam energy transfer. In radio-frequency quadrupole (RFQ) accelerators, power is commonly delivered using waveguide iris or coaxial loop couplers. Iris couplers can handle high RF power but lack tunability, while coaxial loop couplers offer tuning flexibility but are limited in power handling and thermal performance. We propose a new RFQ power coupling concept utilizing a single input coaxial center-fed double-loop antenna built into a vane in an RFQ structure . The design integrates back-to-back loops into the RFQ vanes, fed by a TEM coaxial transmission line with standard 50-Ω characteristic impedance. The configuration can allow straightforward and easy ceramic window replacement without retuning, and coupling strength is adjusted with protruding tuning rods. Numerical simulations, performed with both a simplified RFQ model and the Spallation Neutron Source RFQ, demonstrate improved RF performance and reduced dipole mode excitation. The results establish the coaxial double-loop coupler as a practical alternative for high-power RFQ coupling applications.

Lee, Sung-Woo [ORNL] (ORCID:000000030915835X)↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-resolution x-ray spectrometer for x-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy

Two extended x-ray absorption fine structure flat crystal x-ray spectrometers (EFX’s) were designed and built for high-resolution x-ray spectroscopy over a large energy range with flexible, on-shot energy dispersion calibration capabilities. The EFX uses a flat silicon [111] crystal in the reflection geometry as the energy dispersive optic covering the energy range of 6.3–11.4 keV and achieving a spectral resolution of 4.5 eV with a source size of 50 μm at 7.2 keV. A shot-to-shot configurable calibration filter pack and Bayesian inference routine were used to constrain the energy dispersion relation to within ±3 eV. The EFX was primarily designed for x-ray absorption fine structure (XAFS) spectroscopy and provides significant improvement to the Laboratory for Laser Energetics’ OMEGA-60 XAFS experimental platform. The EFX is capable of performing extended XAFS measurements of multiple absorption edges simultaneously on metal alloys and x-ray absorption near-edge spectroscopy to measure the electron structure of compressed 3d transition metals.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of Low-Altitude Atmospheric Turbulence Models for Aircraft Aeroelasticity

We investigate the dynamic aeroelastic response of large but slow aircraft in low-altitude atmospheric turbulence. To this end, three turbulence models of increasing fidelity, namely, the one-dimensional von Kármán model, the two-dimensional Kaimal model and full three-dimensional wind fields extracted from large-eddy simulations (LES) are used to simulate ambient turbulence near the ground. Load calculations and flight trajectory predictions are conducted for a representative high-aspect-ratio wing aircraft, using a fully coupled nonlinear flight dynamics/aeroelastic model, when it operates in background atmospheric turbulence generated by the aforementioned models. Comparison of load envelopes and spectral content, on vehicles of varying flexibility, shows strong dependency between the selected turbulence model and aircraft aeroelastic response (e.g. 58% difference in the predicted magnitude of the wing root bending moment between LES and von Kármán models). This is mainly due to the presence of large flow structures at low altitudes that have comparable dimensions to the vehicle, and which despite the relatively small wind speeds within the Earth boundary layer, result in overall high load events for slow-moving vehicles. Results show that one-dimensional models that do not capture those effects provide fairly non-conservative load estimates and are unsuitable for very flexible airframe design.

atmospheric turbulence↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Multivariate Space‐Time Dynamic Model for Characterizing the Atmospheric Impacts Following the Mt. Pinatubo Eruption

The June 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption resulted in a massive increase of sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere, absorbing radiation and leading to global changes in surface and stratospheric temperatures. A volcanic eruption of this magnitude serves as a natural analog for stratospheric aerosol injection, a proposed solar radiation modification method to combat a warming climate. The impacts of such an event are multifaceted and region-specific. Our goal is to characterize the multivariate and dynamic nature of the atmospheric impacts following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. We developed a multivariate space-time dynamic linear model to understand the full extent of the spatially- and temporally-varying impacts. Specifically, spatial variation is modeled using a flexible set of basis functions for which the basis coefficients are allowed to vary in time through a vector autoregressive (VAR) structure. This novel model is cast in a Dynamic Linear Model (DLM) framework and estimated via a customized MCMC approach. We demonstrate how the model quantifies the relationships between key atmospheric parameters prior to and following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption with reanalysis data from MERRA-2 and highlight when such a model is advantageous over univariate models.

Dynamic Linear Model↗