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NASA NTRS2009

Neutralizer Hollow Cathode Simulations and Validation with Experiments

The fidelity of electric propulsion physics-based models depends largely on the validity of their predictions over a range of operating conditions and geometries. In general, increased complexity of the physics requires more extensive comparisons with laboratory data to identify the region(s) that lie outside the validity of the model assumptions and to quantify the uncertainties within its range of application. This paper presents numerical simulations of neutralizer hollow cathodes at various operating conditions and orifice sizes. The simulations were performed using a two-dimensional axisymmetric model that solves numerically a relatively extensive system of conservation laws for the partially-ionized gas in these devices. The results for the plasma are compared directly with Langmuir probe measurements. The computed keeper voltages are also compared with the observed values. Wherever model inputs and/or specific physics of the cathode discharge are uncertain, additional sensitivity calculations have been performed to quantify the uncertainties.

partially ionized gases↗

NASA NTRS2011

Uncertainty Assessment of the SeaWiFS On-Orbit Calibration

Ocean color climate data records require water-leaving radiances with 5% absolute and 1% relative accuracies as input. Because of the amplification of any sensor calibration errors by the atmospheric correction, the 1% relative accuracy requirement translates into a 0.1% long-term radiometric stability requirement for top-of-the atmosphere radiances. The rigorous on-orbit calibration program developed and implemented for SeaWiFS by the NASA Ocean Biology Processing Group (OBPG) Calibration and Validation Team (CVT) has allowed the CVT to maintain the stability of the radiometric calibration of SeaWiFS at 0.13% or better over the mission. The uncertainties in the resulting calibrated top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) radiances can be addressed in terms of accuracy (biases in the measurements), precision (scatter in the measurements), and stability (repeatability of the measurements). The calibration biases of lunar observations relative to the USGS RObotic Lunar Observatory (ROLO) photometric model of the Moon are 2-3%. The biases from the vicarious calibration against the Marine Optical Buoy (MOBY) are 1-2%. The precision of the calibration derived from the solar calibration signal-tonoise ratios are 0.16%, from the lunar residuals are 0.13%, and from the vicarious gains are 0.10%. The long-term stability of the TOA radiances, derived from the lunar time series, is 0.13%. The stability of the vicariouslycalibrated TOA radiances, incorporating the uncertainties in the MOBY measurements and the atmospheric correction, is 0.30%. These results allow the OBPG to produce climate data records from the SeaWiFS ocean color data.

Eplee, Robert E., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Speech as a pilot input medium

The speech recognition system under development is a trainable pattern classifier based on a maximum-likelihood technique. An adjustable uncertainty threshold allows the rejection of borderline cases for which the probability of misclassification is high. The syntax of the command language spoken may be used as an aid to recognition, and the system adapts to changes in pronunciation if feedback from the user is available. Words must be separated by .25 second gaps. The system runs in real time on a mini-computer (PDP 11/10) and was tested on 120,000 speech samples from 10- and 100-word vocabularies. The results of these tests were 99.9% correct recognition for a vocabulary consisting of the ten digits, and 99.6% recognition for a 100-word vocabulary of flight commands, with a 5% rejection rate in each case. With no rejection, the recognition accuracies for the same vocabularies were 99.5% and 98.6% respectively.

Plummer, R. P.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification of Monolithic Tungsten Target Block Fatigue

The current STS spallation target design consists of 21 water cooled, tantalum clad, monolithic tungsten blocks. The target wheel assembly rotates such that each target block receives a direct proton pulse every 1.4 seconds (21 blocks / 15 Hz pulses). The quasi-steady heating induced by the repetitive beam pulses creates a significant mean stress distribution in the target. On top of this, the rapid energy deposition from a proton pulse induces dynamic stress waves that are of the same order of magnitude as the mean stresses. Over the design goal of 5,000 operational hours per year for a decade, each target must withstand over 130 million repetitions of these dynamic stress events. The fatigue life prediction of the target blocks is a complex sequence of simulations that depend upon a set of input parameters. For the tungsten block, the end goal is the fatigue factor-of-safety (FOS). This study documents a new structural analysis routine using software available to U.S. national laboratories (e.g. CUBIT, Sierra Multiphysics, Dakota) that enables more rapid target fatigue analysis. The increased throughput is amenable to parameter sensitivity and uncertainty quantification (UQ) studies. A set of input parameters (ultimate strength, fatigue strength, density, elastic modulus, Poisson’s ratio, thermal conductivity, coefficient of thermal expansion, specific heat, flow rate) with expected ranges are documented based on literature data, recent experimental testing, and engineering judgement. UQ bounds the resulting fatigue FOS at [0.5, 3.4] using epistemic interval analysis. These bounds are expected to be wider due to model effects (discretization) and beam effects (focus, offset) that were not included. Parameter sensitivity underscores the importance of ultimate strength and fatigue strength of irradiated tungsten on the fatigue calculations.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying Uncertainties of Microscopic Nuclear Theories

The goal of this project was to produce modernized nuclear data libraries of light ion fusion reactions and actinide fission product yields. Such libraries are essential input in both stockpile science but also fundamental science (nucleosynthesis, superheavy nuclei). When such libraries are used to model complex processes involving exotic, very short-lived nuclei that have not been measured experimentally, the underlying nuclear data come from theoretical models, the predictive power of which needs to be quantified, together with its uncertainties. By teaming up nuclear theorists and statisticians, we built comprehensive theoretical frameworks based on the most fundamental theories of fusion and fission that we coupled for the first time with a Bayesian framework with machine learning techniques for uncertainty quantification. Our results include: (1) statistical emulators for neutron-alpha scattering, and the fission product mass yields of neutron-induced fission of 239 Pu, which will enable developers to generate random realizations of the corresponding data for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in applications; (2) the first complete and most accurate ab initio prediction of the S-factor for proton capture on 7 Be, which – combined with UQ – may become the recommended value at solar energies in the next review of solar fusion cross sections; (3) statistical emulators for fission mass yields in the neutron-induced fission of 239 Pu; (4) the first quantification of how uncertainties in nuclear forces impact fission properties that are relevant in nucleosynthesis simulations to explain how heavy elements are formed in the Cosmos.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Adversarial autoencoder ensemble for fast and probabilistic reconstructions of few-shot photon correlation functions for solid-state quantum emitters

Second-order photon correlation measurements [g (2) (τ) functions] are widely used to classify single-photon emission purity in quantum emitters or to measure the multiexciton quantum yield of emitters that can simultaneously host multiple excitations – such as quantum dots – by evaluating the value of g (2) (τ = 0). Accumulating enough photons to accurately calculate this value is time consuming and could be accelerated by fitting of few-shot photon correlations. Here, we develop an uncertainty-aware, deep adversarial autoencoder ensemble (AAE) that reconstructs noise-free g (2) (τ) functions from noise-dominated, few-shot inputs. The model is trained with simulated g (2) (τ) functions that are facilely generated by Poisson sampling time bins. The AAE reconstructions are performed orders-of-magnitude faster, with reconstruction errors and estimates of g (2) (τ = 0) that are lower in variance and similar in accuracy compared to Maximum likelihood estimation and Levenberg-Marquardt least-squares fitting approaches, for simulated and experimentally measured few-shot g (2) (τ) functions (~100 two-photon events) of InP/ZnS/ZnSe and CdS/CdSe/CdS quantum dots. The deep-ensemble model comprises eight individual autoencoders, allowing for probabilistic reconstructions of noise-free g (2) (τ) functions, and we show that the predicted variance scales inversely with number of shots, with comparable uncertainties to computationally intensive Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. Furthermore, this work demonstrates the advantage of machine learning models to perform uncertainty-aware, fast, and accurate reconstructions of simple Poisson-distributed photon correlation functions, allowing for on-the-fly reconstructions and accelerated materials characterization of solid-state quantum emitters.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2026

SCALE HTR-PROTEUS Benchmark Model

This dataset contains input and result files of computational simulations of HTR-PROTEUS benchmark with the latest version of SCALE code system. The simulations cover criticality control rod worth calculations as well as sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification. Users wanting to reproduce results from this dataset are required to obtain a license to the SCALE code system for which details on the distribution can be found here: https://www.ornl.gov/scale/releases

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Measuring the β-decay Properties of Neutron-rich Exotic Pm, Sm, Eu, and Gd Isotopes to Constrain the Nucleosynthesis Yields in the Rare-earth Region

Abstract The β -delayed neutron-emission probabilities of 28 exotic neutron-rich isotopes of Pm, Sm, Eu, and Gd were measured for the first time at RIKEN Nishina Center using the Advanced Implantation Detector Array (AIDA) and the BRIKEN neutron detector array. The existing β -decay half-life ( T 1/2 ) database was significantly increased toward more neutron-rich isotopes, and uncertainties for previously measured values were decreased. The new data not only constrain the theoretical predictions of half-lives and β -delayed neutron-emission probabilities, but also allow for probing the mechanisms of formation of the high-mass wing of the rare-earth peak located at A ≈ 160 in the r -process abundance distribution through astrophysical reaction network calculations. An uncertainty quantification of the calculated abundance patterns with the new data shows a reduction of the uncertainty in the rare-earth peak region. The newly introduced variance-based sensitivity analysis method offers valuable insight into the influence of important nuclear physics inputs on the calculated abundance patterns. The analysis has identified the half-lives of 168 Sm and of several gadolinium isotopes as some of the key variables among the current experimental data to understand the remaining abundance uncertainty at A = 167–172.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Precision measurements on oxygen formation in stellar helium burning with gamma-ray beams and a Time Projection Chamber

The carbon/oxygen (C/O) ratio at the end of stellar helium burning is the single most important nuclear input to stellar evolution theory. However, it is not known with sufficient accuracy, due to large uncertainties in the cross-section for the fusion of helium with 12 C to form 16 O, denoted as 12 C( α , γ ) 16 O. Here we present results based on a method that is significantly different from the experimental efforts of the past four decades. With data measured inside one detector and with vanishingly small background, angular distributions of the 12 C( α , γ ) 16 O reaction were obtained by measuring the inverse 16 O( γ , α ) 12 C reaction with gamma-beams and a Time Projection Chamber (TPC) detector. We agree with current world data for the total reaction cross-section and further evidence the strength of our method with accurate angular distributions measured over the 1 - resonance at E cm ~2.4 MeV. Our technique promises to yield results that will surpass the quality of the currently available data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1992

Quantitative Feedback Theory (QFT) applied to the design of a rotorcraft flight control system

Quantitative Feedback Theory describes a frequency-domain technique for the design of multi-input, multi-output control systems which meet time or frequency domain performance criteria when specified uncertainty exists in the linear description of the vehicle dynamics. Quantitative Feedback Theory is applied to the design of the longitudinal flight control system for a linear uncertain model of the AH-64 rotorcraft. In this model, the uncertainty is assigned, and is assumed to be attributable to actual uncertainty in the dynamic model and to the changes in the vehicle aerodynamic characteristics which occur near hover. The model includes an approximation to the rotor and actuator dynamics. The design example indicates the manner in which handling qualities criteria may be incorporated into the design of realistic rotorcraft control systems in which significant uncertainty exists in the vehicle model.

Hess, R. A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Overview of NASA's Ocean Color Instrument Solar Calibration Architecture, Pre-Launch Tests and Preliminary On-Orbit Results

Launched in February 2024, the PACE mission represents NASA’s next investment in ocean biology, clouds, and aerosol data records. A key feature of PACE is the inclusion of an advanced satellite radiometer known as the Ocean Color Instrument (OCI), a global mapping radiometer that combines multispectral and hyperspectral remote sensing. Like its predecessors, OCI will provide two day global coverage of TOA radiances. Unlike its predecessors, OCI will cover a spectral range from 340nm to 2260nm. Below 900nm, OCI will include two spectrometers that continuously span the ultraviolet to 600nm and 600nm to near-infrared spectral regions to provide hyperspectral radiances sampled every 2.5 nm, with a bandwidth of 5 nm for each channel. Wavelengths above 900nm are measured in seven discrete multispectral bands of varying bandwidths, six of which are at similar wavelengths to those on heritage missions to support both atmospheric and ocean color applications. Nominal spatial resolution is similar to the SeaWiFS instrument with 1050 m at nadir. As for SeaWiFS, the pixel size increases due to a ~20 degree tilt and as a function of scan angle. Variations in the radiometric sensitivity of each OCI channel over time will be monitored by solar diffuser measurements for short term instrument gain adjustments and independent lunar measurements for trend adjustments of long time periods, similar to the approach employed for the VIIRS instrument [4]. The OCI flight-unit was built at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. At the time of this writing, OCI has completed on-orbit commissioning activities and normal science operations have begun. A key aspect of the OCI architecture is the capability to trend absolute and relative calibration changes over the course of mission life with solar calibration. Every 24 hours, the PACE spacecraft performs an inertial hold as the ground track nears the North Pole which orients a Quasi-Volume Diffuser (QVD) mounted on OCI towards the sun. By knowing the irradiance of the sun and the reflectivity of the target, the absolute radiance at the input to the OCI aperture can be computed as OCI scans the target. The allowable absolute uncertainty budget for each solar calibration measurement is 1.6% 1-sigma below 900nm at beginning of life (BOL) and the allowable relative uncertainty budget is ~0.26% 1-sigma. The Solar Calibration Assembly (SCA) consists of three targets selectable via a single mechanism which also opens a door. The targets consist of a Daily Bright Target (DBT), Monthly Bright Target (MBT), and Daily Dim Target (DDT). The bright targets are quartz QVDs with the monthly target being used to track the degradation of the daily target. The dim target is used to track CCD linearity using Progressive Time-Delay Integration (PTDI). A composite baffle is attached to the SCA housing aperture to block Earth shine and stray light from the spacecraft. The SCA assembly is mounted to a view port ~90° from OCI nadir. This paper provides an overview of driving solar calibration requirements, error-budgets and early trade studies which drove the solar calibration assembly (SCA) architecture and on-orbit maneuver. Measurements of the diffuser Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) at TNO, Netherlands and GSFC are briefly described. Optical modelling and test results at the sub-system and instrument level are included. Finally, preliminary measurements on-orbit are compared to pre-launch predictions.

Joseph J Knuble↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Overview of NASA's Ocean Color Instrument Solar Calibration Architecture, Pre-Launch Tests and Preliminary On-Orbit Results

ocean color↗

DOE OSTI2021

Measurement of $d^2 \sigma/d|\vec{q}|d E_{avail}$ and 2p2h contribution using charged current $\nu_\mu$ interactions in the NOvA Near Detector

This Thesis presents the analysis methods and measurement of the $d^2 \sigma/d|\vec{q}|d E_{avail}$-CC inclusive cross section that describes neutrino scattering in a predominantly hydrocarbon medium. Studies that are prerequisite for the analysis including, variable determinations, event selections, efficiency, purity determinations, and systematic uncertainty estimations, are summarized. Tests of the analysis are also detailed, and shown to reproduce the input distributions. The double-differential cross-section measurement provides the foundation for determination of the inclusive rate for the excess induced by 2p2h processes together with nuclear medium effects that are not described by the Fermi gas model. The methodology for the extraction of this rate, defined as the excess observed relative to the rate estimated for known single-nucleon interactions, is described in detail. The following new measurements are reported in this Thesis: (1) The $\nu_\mu-$CC inclusive double-differential cross section as a function of three-momentum transfer and available hadronic energy, for an average $E_\nu$ of 1.8 GeV, is obtained. The double-differential cross section value that obtains when the bin widths are taken to be the dimensions of the entire analysis domain, e.g. $0.2 \le |\vec{q}| \le 2.0 GeV/c$ and $0.0 \le E_{avail} \le 2.0$ GeV, is inclusive cross section is $(6.05 \pm 0.75)\times10^{-39}$ cm$^2$/GeV/GeV/$c$/nucleon. An event excess attributed to 2p2h-MEC processes is observed; most of the rate occurs in a contiguous phase space region $0.3 \le |\vec{q}| \le 1.0$ GeV$/c$ $0.0 \le E_{avail} \le 0.35$ GeV. This rate represents $12.0\pm 6.5\%$ of the observed CC inclusive cross section; its cross section ratio relative to CCQE scattering is estimated to be $44.3 \pm 23.9\%$.

Olson, Travis Grant↗

DOE OSTI2020

Safeguards Modeling for Advanced Nuclear Facility Design.

Future nuclear fuel cycle facilities will see a significant benefit from considering materials accountancy requirements early in the design process. The Material Protection, Accounting, and Control Technologies (MPACT) working group is demonstrating Safeguards and Security by Design (SSBD) for a notional electrochemical reprocessing facility as part of a 2020 Milestone. The idea behind SSBD is to consider regulatory requirements early in the design process to provide more optimized systems and avoid costly retrofits later in the design process. Safeguards modeling, using single analyst tools, allows the designer to efficiently consider materials accountancy approaches that meet regulatory requirements. However, safeguards modeling also allows the facility designer to go beyond current regulations and work toward accountancy designs with rapid response and lower thresholds for detection of anomalies. This type of modeling enables new safeguards approaches and may inform future regulatory changes. The Separation and Safeguards Performance Model (SSPM) has been used for materials accountancy system design and analysis. This paper steps through the process of designing a Material Control and Accountancy (MC&A) system, presents the baseline system design for an electrochemical reprocessing facility, and provides performance metrics from the modeling analysis. The most critical measurements in the electrochemical facility are the spent fuel input, electrorefiner salt, and U/TRU product output measurements. Finally, material loss scenario analysis found that measurement uncertainties (relative standard deviations) for Pu would need to be at 1% (random and systematic error components) or better in order to meet domestic detection goals or as high as 3% in order to meet international detection goals, based on a 100 metric ton per year plant size.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2026

First Estimation of Model Parameters for Neutrino-Induced Nucleon Knockout Using Simulation-Based Inference

To enable an accurate determination of oscillation parameters, accelerator-based neutrino experiments require detailed simulations of nuclear interaction physics in the GeV regime. While substantial effort from both theory and experiment is currently being invested to improve the fidelity of these simulations, their present deficiencies typically oblige experimental collaborations to resort to empirical tuning of simulation model parameters. As the precision requirements of the field continue to become more stringent, machine learning techniques may provide a powerful means of handling corresponding growth in the complexity of future neutrino interaction model tuning exercises. To study the suitability of simulation-based inference (SBI) for this physics application, in this paper we revisit a tuned configuration of the GENIE neutrino event generator that was originally developed by the MicroBooNE collaboration. Despite closely reproducing the adopted values of four physics parameters when confronted with the tuned cross-section predictions as input, we find that our trained SBI algorithm prefers modestly different values (within MicroBooNE's assigned uncertainties) and achieves slightly better goodness-of-fit when inference is run on the experimental data set originally used by MicroBooNE. We also find that our trained algorithm can create a fair approximation of an alternative neutrino scattering simulation, NuWro, that shares only a subset of its physics model parameters with GENIE.

Tame-Narvaez, Karla [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000022249↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty-Based Design: Finite Element and Explainable Machine Learning Modeling of Carbon–Carbon Composites for Ultra-High Temperature Solar Receivers

Design under uncertainty has significantly grown in research developments during the past decade. Additionally, machine learning (ML) and explainable ML (XML) have offered various opportunities to provide reliable predictable models. The current article investigates the use of finite element modeling (FEM), ML and XML predictions, and uncertain-based design of carbon-carbon (C-C) composites for use in ultra-high temperatures. A C-C composite concentrating solar power (CSP) as a microvascular receiver is considered as a case study. These C-C composites are fiber composites with directly integrated carbonized microchannels to form a lightweight, high-absorptivity material that includes an embedded microvascular network of channels. The topology of these microchannels is engineered to optimize heat transfer to a supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) heat transfer fluid. The mechanical characterization of C-C composites is highly challenging. Thus, designing every component made of C-C composites for ultra-high temperature applications needs an uncertainty-based analysis. As a part of a comprehensive project on the development of a novel carbonized microvascular C-C composite, this paper explores C-C composite sensitivity analysis, FEM, ML prediction, and XML analysis. The resulting composite can then be carbonized and coated with an oxidation-resistant coating to form a thermally efficient and mechanically robust C-C composite. An ANSYS 3-D-FE model was used to analyze the CSP’s stress/strain. To consider the variability in the mechanical and thermal properties of C-C composites, various mechanical properties are considered as the ANSYS FEM’s input. A synthetic dataset from 730 ANSYS runs was produced to feed into the ML and XML algorithms for uncertainty analysis and prediction. The ML and XML algorithms could accurately predict the CSP stresses/strains.

Daghigh, Vahid (ORCID:0000000298941620)↗

DOE OSTI2022

NRAP-Open-IAM: NRAP Open Source Integrated Assessment Model

Note: This is the last version (a2.6.1) of NRAP-Open-IAM released during NRAP Phase II in 2022. The latest version of NRAP-Open-IAM is available here: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/phase-iii-nrap-open-iam NRAP-Open-IAM is an open-source software product that enables quantification of containment effectiveness and leakage risk at storage sites in the context of system uncertainties and variability. NRAP-Open-IAM represents the next-generation in a line of systems-based computational models developed for quantitative geological carbon storage (GCS) risk assessment. The model comprises a set of reduced-order and analytical models of various components of the GCS system, potential leakage pathways, receptors of concern including impact to groundwater resources and the atmosphere, a framework to support stochastic simulation, time stepping, uncertainty quantification, other analytical functionality for scenario and risk-performance evaluation, and a basic graphical user interface to support scenario development, data input simulation definition, and basic post-processing and results display. As the NRAP Open-IAM functionality continues to evolve, we continue to add to its capability to develop quantitative, probabilistic, and time-dependent profiles of the evolution of risk at a GCS site and evaluate the influence of uncertain parameters on uncertainty in predicted risk. It can be used to quantify the dynamics of reservoir saturation plume and pressure-affected area, for evaluation of the area of potential groundwater impact (i.e., Area of Review) and monitoring requirements to support cost and regulatory analysis, and for consideration of different post-injection site care and closure scenarios. This submission contains the current version of NRAP-Open-IAM available for evaluation and testing. To use the NRAP-Open-IAM, download the source code (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/4c24a3da-3b40-4ffe-9892-c807ae9f8760) then open the NRAP-Open-IAM user's guide (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/8b27335a-343c-4836-b8a3-3ad0bdc9e669) to read more about the tool. Installation instructions for Windows, Mac, and Linux can be found in the "installers" folder of the extracted NRAP-Open-IAM folder and describe setup of environment (e.g., Python libraries) needed for proper work of the tool. Test of installation can be done by running "python openiam_setup_tests.py" in the "setup" folder. The installation test also runs a test suite to see if the NRAP-Open-IAM has been installed correctly. To run the test suite separately, run "python iam_test.py" in the "test" folder. User's guide: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/8b27335a-343c-4836-b8a3-3ad0bdc9e669 Developer's guide: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/3bc6ee7d-609d-4eb6-80ba-fa6130ee0313 Reservoir simulation data used in some examples distributed with NRAP-Open-IAM: - Kimberlina: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/eb62cece-61b2-4037-9b6d-32407dde2ab8 - Kimberlina (compartmentalized): https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/366f9530-3b32-4b84-affe-ab2df1d9a8b5 - FutureGen 2.0: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/futuregen-2-0-1008-simulation-reservoir-lookup-table NRAP-Open-IAM GitLab repository: https://gitlab.com/NRAP/OpenIAM Related publications: - Bacon, D., Yonkofski, C., Brown, C., Demirkanli, D. and Whiting, J., 2019. Risk-based post injection site care and monitoring for commercial-scale carbon storage: Reevaluation of the FutureGen 2.0 site using NRAP-Open-IAM and DREAM. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 90: 102784. - Bacon, D. Demirkanli, D., and White, S., 2020. Probabilistic risk-based Area of Review (AoR) determination for a deep-saline carbon storage site. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 102: 103153. - Harp, D., Oldenburg, C., and Pawar, R., 2019. A metric for evaluating conformance robustness during geologic CO2 sequestration operations. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 85: 100-108. - Lackey, G., Vasylkivska, V., Huerta, N., King, S., and Dilmore, R., 2019. Managing well leakage risks at a geologic carbon storage site with many wells, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 88 :182-194. - Vasylkivska, V., Dilmore, R., Lackey, G., Zhang, Y., King, S., Bacon, D., Chen, B., Mansoor, K., and Harp, D., 2021. NRAP-Open-IAM: A flexible open-source integrated assessment model for geologic carbon storage risk assessment and management, Environmental Modelling & Software, 143: 105114. Presentations: - Chen, B., Harp, D., and Pawar, R., A data assimilation approach (ES-MDA) coupling with NRAP-Open-IAM for quantifying uncertainty reduction in geological CO2 sequestration. AGUFM 2019: T44A-02. - Chen, B., and Harp, D., Improving risk analysis precision for geologic CO2 sequestration by quantifying the uncertainty reduction before and after acquiring monitoring data. 14th Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies Conference, Melbourne, Australia, 2018, pp. 21-26. - Harp, D., National Risk Assessment Partnership Task 2: Containment Assurance. No. LA-UR-19-28654, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States), 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., King, S., Bacon, D., Harp, D., Chen, B., Mansoor, K., Onishi, T., Yang, Y., Zhang, Y., and Keating, E., NRAP-Open-IAM: An open-source integrated assessment model, poster, Mastering the Subsurface Through Technology Innovation, Partnerships and Collaboration: Carbon Storage and Oil and Natural Gas Technologies Review Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, August 13-16, 2018. - Vasylkivska, V., Lackey, G., King, S., Wentworth, A., Huerta, N., Creason, C., DiGiulio, J., Yang, Y., and Dilmore, R., Long-term risk analysis of a geologic CO2 storage project during the post-injection period, SIAM Conference on Computational Science and Engineering, Spokane, WA, February 25-March 1, 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., Overview of the NRAP-Open-IAM tool for carbon storage (beta release), 2019 Annual NRAP Tool Users Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, August 27, 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., Bacon, D., Chen, B., Dilmore, R., Harp, D., King, S., Lackey, G., Lindner, E., Liu, G., Mansoor, K. and Zhang, Y., NRAP-Open-IAM: A new, open-source code for integrated assessment of geologic carbon storage containment effectiveness and leakage risk, poster, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2020 (virtual meeting), December 2020. - Vasylkivska, V., NRAP open-source integrated assessment model and relevant application, oral presentation, NRAP workshop "NRAP Tools for Geologic Carbon Storage Risk-Based Decision Making" held in conjunction with Groundwater Protection Council (GWPC) 2021 Annual Forum (virtual meeting), Salt Lake City, UT, September 2021. - Vasylkivska, V., NRAP-Open-IAM: open-source integrated assessment model, digital poster/demonstration, software demonstration session, 2022 Carbon Management Project Review Meeting, August 16, 2022

AoR↗

DOE OSTI2022

Inverse Modeling of Hydrologic Parameters in CLM4 via Generalized Polynomial Chaos in the Bayesian Framework

In this work, generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion for land surface model parameter estimation is evaluated. We perform inverse modeling and compute the posterior distribution of the critical hydrological parameters that are subject to great uncertainty in the Community Land Model (CLM) for a given value of the output LH. The unknown parameters include those that have been identified as the most influential factors on the simulations of surface and subsurface runoff, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and soil moisture in CLM4.0. We set up the inversion problem in the Bayesian framework in two steps: (i) building a surrogate model expressing the input–output mapping, and (ii) performing inverse modeling and computing the posterior distributions of the input parameters using observation data for a given value of the output LH. The development of the surrogate model is carried out with a Bayesian procedure based on the variable selection methods that use gPC expansions. Our approach accounts for bases selection uncertainty and quantifies the importance of the gPC terms, and, hence, all of the input parameters, via the associated posterior probabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗