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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting fatigue from heart rate signatures using functional logistic regression

Physical fatigue can have adverse effects on humans in extreme environments. Therefore, being able to predict fatigue using easy to measure metrics such as heart rate (HR) signatures has potential to have an impact in real-life scenarios. We apply a functional logistic regression model that uses HR signatures to predict physical fatigue, where physical fatigue is defined in a data-driven manner. Data were collected using commercially available wearable devices on 47 participants hiking the 20.7-mile Grand Canyon rim-to-rim trail in a single day. Fitted model provides good predictions and interpretable parameters for real-life application.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prognostic analysis of high-flow nasal cannula therapy and non-invasive ventilation in mild to moderate hypoxemia patients and construction of a machine learning model for 48-h intubation prediction—a retrospective analysis of the MIMIC database

Background This study aims to investigate the clinical outcome between high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) and non-invasive ventilation (NIV) therapy in mild to moderate hypoxemic patients on the first ICU day and to develop a predictive model of 48-h intubation. Methods The study included adult patients from the MIMIC III and IV databases who first initiated HFNC or NIV therapy due to mild to moderate hypoxemia (100 < PaO2/FiO2 ≤ 300). The 48-h and 30-day intubation rates were compared using cross-sectional and survival analysis. Nine machine learning and six ensemble algorithms were deployed to construct the 48-h intubation predictive models, of which the optimal model was determined by its prediction accuracy. The top 10 risk and protective factors were identified using the Shapley interpretation algorithm. Result A total of 123,042 patients were screened, of which, 673 were from the MIMIC IV database for ventilation therapy comparison (HFNC n = 363, NIV n = 310) and 48-h intubation predictive model construction (training dataset n = 471, internal validation set n = 202) and 408 were from the MIMIC III database for external validation. The NIV group had a lower intubation rate (23.1% vs. 16.1%, p = 0.001), ICU 28-day mortality (18.5% vs. 11.6%, p = 0.014), and in-hospital mortality (19.6% vs. 11.9%, p = 0.007) compared to the HFNC group. Survival analysis showed that the total and 48-h intubation rates were not significantly different. The ensemble AdaBoost decision tree model (internal and external validation set AUROC 0.878, 0.726) had the best predictive accuracy performance. The model Shapley algorithm showed Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), acute physiology scores (APSIII), the minimum and maximum lactate value as risk factors for early failure and age, the maximum PaCO 2 and PH value, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), the minimum PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio, and PaO 2 value as protective factors. Conclusion NIV was associated with lower intubation rate and ICU 28-day and in-hospital mortality. Further survival analysis reinforced that the effect of NIV on the intubation rate might partly be attributed to the other impact factors. The ensemble AdaBoost decision tree model may assist clinicians in making clinical decisions, and early organ function support to improve patients’ SOFA, APSIII, GCS, PaCO 2 , PaO 2 , PH, PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio, and lactate values can reduce the early failure rate and improve patient prognosis.

Fu, Wei↗
DOE OSTI2023

Driving mode analysis—How uncertain functional inputs propagate to an output

Abstract Driving mode analysis elucidates how correlated features of uncertain functional inputs jointly propagate to produce uncertainty in the output of a computation. Uncertain input functions are decomposed into three terms: the mean functions, a zero‐mean driving mode, and zero‐mean residual. The random driving mode varies along a single direction, having fixed functional shape and random scale. It is uncorrelated with the residual, and under linear error propagation, it produces an output variance equal to that of the full input uncertainty. Finally, the driving mode best represents how input uncertainties propagate to the output because it minimizes expected squared Mahalanobis distance amongst competitors. These characteristics recommend interpretation of the driving mode as the single‐degree‐of‐freedom component of input uncertainty that drives output uncertainty. We derive the functional driving mode, show its superiority to other seemingly sensible definitions, and demonstrate the utility of driving mode analysis in an application. The application is the simulation of neutron transport in criticality experiments. The uncertain input functions are nuclear data that describe how Pu reacts to bombardment by neutrons. Visualization of the driving mode helps scientists understand what aspects of correlated functional uncertainty have effects that either reinforce or cancel one another in propagating to the output of the simulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Study of Pile-Up Effects in Decay Energy Spectroscopy

Pile-up is an unavoidable complication for cryogenic detectors with relatively large heat capacities and slow rise time, such as systems for decay energy spectroscopy employing large Au absorbers. We have simulated the spectral response of such slow cryogenic detectors using Monte-Carlo algorithms to investigate the effects of pile-up on absolute and relative activity measurements. We focus on the impact of non-distinguishable pile-up that occurs when the rising edges of two waveforms originating from different events overlap in time and are interpreted as a single event. This effect can not be readily identified and corrected in experimental data. We investigated two representative cases of absolute decay counting and plutonium isotopic analysis and find that pile-up can distort the reconstruction of both the absolute and relative activities. This Monte-Carlo methodology quantifies of pile-up effects and provides a systematic methodology for calculating corrective factors.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive models of long COVID

Background: The cause and symptoms of long COVID are poorly understood. It is challenging to predict whether a given COVID-19 patient will develop long COVID in the future. Methods: We used electronic health record (EHR) data from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative to predict the incidence of long COVID. We trained two machine learning (ML) models — logistic regression (LR) and random forest (RF). Features used to train predictors included symptoms and drugs ordered during acute infection, measures of COVID-19 treatment, pre-COVID comorbidities, and demographic information. We assigned the ‘long COVID’ label to patients diagnosed with the U09.9 ICD10-CM code. The cohorts included patients with (a) EHRs reported from data partners using U09.9 ICD10-CM code and (b) at least one EHR in each feature category. We analysed three cohorts: all patients (n = 2,190,579; diagnosed with long COVID = 17,036), inpatients (149,319; 3,295), and outpatients (2,041,260; 13,741). Findings: LR and RF models yielded median AUROC of 0.76 and 0.75, respectively. Ablation study revealed that drugs had the highest influence on the prediction task. The SHAP method identified age, gender, cough, fatigue, albuterol, obesity, diabetes, and chronic lung disease as explanatory features. Models trained on data from one N3C partner and tested on data from the other partners had average AUROC of 0.75. Interpretation: ML-based classification using EHR information from the acute infection period is effective in predicting long COVID. SHAP methods identified important features for prediction. Cross-site analysis demonstrated the generalizability of the proposed methodology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Computational Spectroscopy of the Cr–Cr Bond in Coordination Complexes

In this work, we report the accurate computational vibrational analysis of the Cr–Cr bond in dichromium complexes using second-order multireference complete active space methods (CASPT2), allowing direct comparison with experimental spectroscopic data both to facilitate interpreting the low-energy region of the spectra and to provide insights into the nature of the bonds themselves. Recent technological development by the authors has realized such computation for the first time. Accurate simulation of the vibrational structure of these compounds has been hampered by their notorious multiconfigurational electronic structure that yields bond distances that do not correlate with bond order. Some measured Cr–Cr vibrational stretching modes, ν(Cr 2 ), have suggested weaker bonding, even for so-called ultrashort Cr–Cr bonds, while others are in line with the bond distance. Here, we optimize geometries and compute ν(Cr 2 ) with CASPT2 for three well-characterized complexes, Cr 2 (O 2 CCH 3 ) 4 (H 2 O) 2 , Cr 2 (mhp) 4 , and Cr 2 (dmp) 4 . We obtain CASPT2 harmonic ν(Cr 2 ) modes in good agreement with experiment at 282 cm –1 for Cr 2 (mhp) 4 and 353 cm –1 for Cr 2 (dmp) 4 , compute 50 Cr and 54 Cr isotope shifts, and demonstrate that the use of the so-called IPEA shift leads to improved Cr–Cr distances. Additionally, normal mode sampling was used to estimate anharmonicity along ν(Cr 2 ), leading to an anharmonic mode of 272 cm –1 for Cr 2 (mhp) 4 and 333 cm –1 for Cr 2 (dmp) 4 .

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

MemFriend: Understanding Memory Performance with Spatial-Temporal Affinity

In HPC applications, memory access behavior is one of the main factors affecting performance. Improving an application’s memory access behavior involves optimizing data layout and/or restructuring code, and requires studying spatial-temporal data locality. Existing data locality analyses focus on single-location metrics and are restricted to evaluating temporal locality. We introduce spatial-temporal affinity metrics that quantify temporal access proximity, forward access correlation, and nearby access correlation between pairs of memory locations. We describe methods for distinguishing between potential vs. realized affinity and for reasoning about affinity at multiple resolutions (3D, 2D, 1D). Finally, we construct spatial-temporal affinity signatures that classify memory behavior and that be used to reason about changes in software (data relayout, code refactoring) or hardware (caching, prefetching). We describe methods for signature visualization, interpretation, and quantitative comparison of signatures. We evaluate our methodology using applications with variants that contrast data structures, data layouts and algorithms. We show that spatial-temporal affinity analysis provides novel insights and enables predictive reasoning about application performance when contrasted with reuse distance analysis.

Suriyakumar, Yasodhadevi↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Astrophysical Explosions and Nucleosynthesis (Final Technical Report)

The goal of this project was to further our theoretical understanding of the extreme physics and heavy element nucleosynthesis occurring in stellar explosions, in particular supernovae and neutron star mergers. To study these systems, we further developed and applied numerical simulations (radiation hydrodynamical models and nuclear reaction networks) run on high performance computers. The numerical calculations and companion theoretical analysis helped to better define the sites of astrophysical nucleosynthesis, and make predictions of the associated observables (nucleosynthetic yields and electromagnetic signals) that can be used to anticipate and interpret experimental data. This project enhances the scientific value of the nuclear data obtained from current and future experimental facilities (e.g., rare isotope beams) by improving our understanding of the astrophysical context and specific physical conditions under which we expect such reactions to take place in Nature.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mshock HED Council Request FY24 [Slides]

ICF and HEDP experiments experience complicated loadings including successive shocks, but modeling and analytic work has mostly engaged the simpler shock or shock-reshock case. This is because the co propagating case is difficult to achieve with conventional (non-HED) drivers. Successive shocks will be challenging to model in BHR or modal model interpretations: 1) Ex: Consider the case where long wavelength modes re-invert coherently, but short wavelength nonlinear modes are spun up turbulently. 2) Necessitates more advanced diagnostics and analysis than simple “mixing layers.” High resolution spectral information (concomitant with Ω-EP campaigns) and higher-order moment analyses will be necessary to stress and validate the reduced BHR-type models.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-omics Characterization of the Host Response to COVID-19

This project is a multi-disciplinary collaboration between investigators at PNNL with expertise in mass spectrometry (MS)-based omics technology development, omics measurement methods development and application, statistics, machine learning and integration of disparate datasets for a systems-level understanding, and expertise in pathogenic coronaviruses, and investigators at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (UW-Madison) with expertise in pathogenic respiratory viruses (e.g. influenza). The goal of this project is to obtain a comprehensive picture of the human host factors critical for the outcome of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We will generate broad untargeted multi-omics profiles using both state-of-the-art and novel instrumentation and approaches to enable the identification of the molecular mechanisms and host response pathways that impact human COVID-19 outcomes. We anticipate these results will lead to the generation of biomarker panels that are predictive of disease outcomes and mechanistic hypotheses that can be further interrogated in future studies and will provide the basis for vaccine or therapeutic development. To do so, we are obtaining and analyzing blood samples from COVID-19 patients with a range of disease outcomes that were treated at the Center Hospital of the National Center for Global Health and Medicine in Tokyo, Japan and other collaborating hospitals in our network. Specifically, this project will fund proteomics and metabolomics analyses of clinical COVID samples, machine learning-based integration of the data, and pathway-based interpretation of the data. This project was funded in June 2020. In the time span of June to September 2020, the project team developed an analytically and statistically robust analysis plan and made various preparations to facilitate sample receipt from our UW-Madison collaborators. This included blocking and randomization of sample prep orders, ordering of reagents and reference materials, and shipping of materials needed for preparation of the samples under BSL3 conditions to our collaborators at UW-Madison. As of FY21, this project has been picked up via a sponsor, the Naval Medical Research Center, which will cover the remainder of the proposed scope of work.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A galactic approach to neutron scattering science

Neutron scattering science is leading to significant advances in our understanding of materials and will be key to solving many of the challenges that society is facing today. Improvements in scientific instruments are actually making it more difficult to analyze and interpret the results of experiments due to the vast increases in the volume and complexity of data being produced and the associated computational requirements for processing that data. New approaches to enable scientists to leverage computational resources are required, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has been at the forefront of developing these technologies. We recently completed the design and initial implementation of a neutrons data interpretation platform that allows seamless access to the computational resources provided by ORNL. For the first time, we have demonstrated that this platform can be used for advanced data analysis of correlated quantum materials by utilizing the world's most powerful computer system, Frontier. In particular, we have shown the end-to-end execution of the DCA++ code to determine the dynamic magnetic spin susceptibility χ(q, ω) for a single-band Hubbard model with Coulomb repulsion U/t = 8 in units of the nearest-neighbor hopping amplitude t and an electron density of n = 0.65. The following work describes the architecture, design, and implementation of the platform and how we constructed a correlated quantum materials analysis workflow to demonstrate the viability of this system to produce scientific results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

NOvA's Current and Future Sterile Neutrino Searches

The NOvA experiment's most recent search for eV-scale sterile neutrinos under a 3+1 model simultaneously analyses muon neutrino and neutral current datasets from the NuMI beam at its Near ($\sim$\qty1{km} baseline) and Far (\qty{810}{km} baseline) detectors to look for oscillations consistent with a sterile neutrino. The analysis is systematically limited in the region of parameter space where $Δm^2_{41} \gtrsim 1~\mathrm{eV}^2$. This region of parameter space is preferred by sterile neutrino interpretations of current experimental anomalies and so improving sensitivity here is high-priority. These proceedings present our current search strategy, and discusses future plans to include data from a second beamline, the Booster Neutrino Beam, to improve our sensitivity in systematics-dominated regions of parameter space.

Lister, Adam [Wisconsin U., Madison; Virginia Tech↗
DOE OSTI2021

Measuring Electron Diffusion and Constraining the Neutral Current $\pi^0$ Background for Single-Photon Events in MicroBooNE

Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers (LArTPCs) are a rising technology in the field of experimental neutrino physics. LArTPCs use ionization electrons and scintillation light to reconstruct neutrino interactions with exceptional calorimetric and position resolution capabilities. Here, I present two analyses conducted in the MicroBooNE LArTPC at Fermilab: a measurement of the longitudinal electron diffusion coefficient, $D_L$, in the MicroBooNE detector and a constraint of the systematic uncertainty on MicroBooNE's single-photon analysis due to the dominant neutral current (NC) \piz{} background. Longitudinal electron diffusion modifies the spatial and timing resolution of the detector, and measuring it will help correct for these effects. Furthermore, current measurements of $D_L$ in liquid argon are sparse and in tension with one another, making the MicroBooNE measurement especially valuable. We report a measurement of $3.74^{+0.28}_{-0.29}$ cm$^2$/s. MicroBooNE is searchin g for si ngle-photon events as a potential explanation for the MiniBooNE low-energy excess (LEE) of electron neutrino-like events, which has been interpreted as evidence for low-mass sterile neutrinos. However, this search is overwhelmed by a large NC \piz{} background. By performing a sideband selection of NC \piz{} events, we apply a data-driven rate constraint to the single-photon analysis to reduce the systematic uncertainties. At present, this constraint improves the single-photon analysis' median sensitivity to the LEE-like signal from 0.9$\sigma$ to $1.5\sigma$. This sensitivity is expected to improve significantly as more data become available. Both of these measurements will not only benefit MicroBooNE, but also inform future LArTPC experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Contemporary sources dominate carbonaceous aerosol on the North Slope of Alaska

As the Arctic continues to change and warm rapidly, it is increasingly important to understand the organic carbon (OC) contribution to Arctic aerosol. Biogenic sources of primary and secondary OC in the Arctic will be impacted by climate change, including warming temperatures and earlier snow and ice melt. Here, this study focuses on identifying potential sources and regional influences on the seasonal concentration of organic aerosol through analysis of chemical and isotopic composition. Aerosol samples were collected at two sites on the North Slope of Alaska ($Utqia\dot{g}vik$, UQK, and Oliktok Point, OLK, which is in an Arctic oilfield) over three summers from 2015 to 2017. The elemental carbon (EC) trends at each site were used to understand local combustion influences. Local sources drove EC concentrations at Oliktok Point, where high EC was attributed to oil and gas extraction activity, including diesel combustion emissions. $Utqia\dot{g}vik$ had very low EC in the summer. OC was more similar in concentration and well correlated between the two sites with high contributions of contemporary carbon by radiocarbon apportionment (UQK = 74%, OLK = 63%), which could include both marine and terrestrial sources of contemporary carbon (e.g. primary and secondary biogenic, biomass burning and/or associated SOA, and bioaerosols). OC concentrations are strongly correlated to maximum ambient temperatures on the NSA during the summer, which may have implications for predicting future OC aerosol concentrations in a warming Arctic. Biomass burning was determined to be an episodic influence at both sites, based on interpretation of combined aerosol composition, air mass trajectories, and remote sensing of smoke plumes. The results from this study overall strongly suggests contribution from regional sources of contemporary organic aerosol on the NSA, but additional analysis is needed to better constrain contributions from both biogenic sources (terrestrial and/or marine) and bioaerosol to better understand temperature-related aerosol processes in the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

What drives the scatter of local star-forming galaxies in the BPT diagrams? A Machine Learning based analysis

ABSTRACT We investigate which physical properties are most predictive of the position of local star forming galaxies on the BPT diagrams, by means of different Machine Learning (ML) algorithms. Exploiting the large statistics from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), we define a framework in which the deviation of star-forming galaxies from their median sequence can be described in terms of the relative variations in a variety of observational parameters. We train artificial neural networks (ANN) and random forest (RF) trees to predict whether galaxies are offset above or below the sequence (via classification), and to estimate the exact magnitude of the offset itself (via regression). We find, with high significance, that parameters primarily associated to variations in the nitrogen-over-oxygen abundance ratio (N/O) are the most predictive for the [N ii]-BPT diagram, whereas properties related to star formation (like variations in SFR or EW(H α)) perform better in the [S ii]-BPT diagram. We interpret the former as a reflection of the N/O–O/H relationship for local galaxies, while the latter as primarily tracing the variation in the effective size of the S+ emitting region, which directly impacts the [S ii] emission lines. This analysis paves the way to assess to what extent the physics shaping local BPT diagrams is also responsible for the offsets seen in high redshift galaxies or, instead, whether a different framework or even different mechanisms need to be invoked.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nonlinear dynamics of combustor azimuthal modes: Experiments and modeling

This paper provides an experimental and theoretical investigation of azimuthal instabilities in a lean, premixed combustor. It presents data from a high Reynolds number, industrial-scale facility with multiple fuel stages that enable variation of radial and azimuthal symmetries. The combustor exhibits a variety of behaviors – including standing, spinning, mixed waves, and intermittent behaviors, as well as periodic limit cycles and quasi-periodic oscillations – depending upon varying power and azimuthal symmetry. A second key objective of this paper is to present a weakly nonlinear framework that is used to understand and interpret these results, showing the influence of eigenmode degeneracy, background noise, and azimuthal non-uniformities in mean quantities such as temperature and flame-acoustic coupling. In particular, this analysis shows the importance of the linear instability growth/damping rate and azimuthal non-uniformities in controlling the relative prominence of standing, spinning, or mixed waves at the limit cycle, as well as the preference in the spinning direction. It also shows the conditions under which single frequency or quasi-periodic oscillations are dominant, and how these are more fundamentally influenced by azimuthal non-uniformities and background noise.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Search in diphoton and dielectron final states for displaced production of Higgs or Z bosons with the ATLAS detector in s = 13 TeV p p collisions

A search is presented for displaced production of Higgs bosons or Z bosons, originating from the decay of a neutral long-lived particle (LLP) and reconstructed in the decay modes H → γ γ and Z → ee . The analysis uses the full Run 2 dataset of proton-proton collisions delivered by the LHC at an energy of $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV between 2015 and 2018 and recorded by the ATLAS detector, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb -1 . Exploiting the capabilities of the ATLAS liquid argon calorimeter to precisely measure the arrival times and trajectories of electromagnetic objects, the analysis searches for the signature of pairs of photons or electrons which arise from a common displaced vertex and which arrive after some delay at the calorimeter. The results are interpreted in a gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking model with pair-produced Higgsinos that decay to LLPs, and each LLP subsequently decays into either a Higgs boson or a Z boson. The final state includes at least two particles that escape direct detection, giving rise to missing transverse momentum. No significant excess is observed above the background expectation. The results are used to set upper limits on the cross section for Higgsino pair production, up to a $\bar{χ}^0_1$ mass of 369 (704) GeV for decays with 100% branching ratio of $\bar{χ}^0_1$ to Higgs (Z) bosons for a $\bar{χ}^0_1$ lifetime of 2 ns. A model-independent limit is also set on the production of pairs of photons or electrons with a significant delay in arrival at the calorimeter.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Testing lepton flavor universality at future Z factories

As one of the hypothetical principles in the Standard Model (SM), lepton flavor universality (LFU) should be tested with a precision as high as possible such that the physics violating this principle can be fully examined. The run of a Z factory at a future e + e − collider, such as the Circular Electron-Positron Collider or Future Circular Collider (electron/positron), provides a great opportunity to perform this task because of the large statistics and high reconstruction efficiencies for b hadrons at the Z pole. In this paper, we present a systematic study on the LFU test in future Z factories. The goal is threefold. First, we study the sensitivities of measuring the LFU-violating observables of b → c τ ν , i.e., R J / ψ , R D s , R D s * , and R Λ c , where τ decays muonically. For this purpose, we develop the strategies for event reconstruction, based on the track information significantly. Second, we explore the sensitivity robustness against detector performance and its potential improvement with the message of event shape or beyond the b -hadron decays. A picture is drawn on the variation of analysis sensitivities with the detector tracking resolution and soft photon detectability, and the impact of Fox-Wolfram moments is studied on the measurement of relevant flavor events. Finally, we interpret the projected sensitivities in the SM effective field theory, by combining the LFU tests of b → c τ ν and the measurements of b → s τ + τ − and b → s ν ¯ ν . We show that the limits on the LFU-violating energy scale can be pushed up to ∼ O ( 10 ) TeV for ≲ O ( 1 ) Wilson coefficients at Tera- Z . Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗