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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 667 records · Page 37
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

An Observationally Constrained Evaluation of the Oxidative Capacity in the Tropical Western Pacific Troposphere

Hydroxyl radical (OH) is the main daytime oxidant in the troposphere and determines the atmospheric lifetimes of many compounds. We use aircraft measurements of O3, H2O, NO, and other species from the Convective Transport of Active Species in the Tropics (CONTRAST) field campaign, which occurred in the tropical western Pacific (TWP) during January-February 2014, to constrain a photochemical box model and estimate concentrations of OH throughout the troposphere. We find that tropospheric column OH (OHCOL) inferred from CONTRAST observations is 12 to 40% higher than found in chemical transport models (CTMs), including CAM-chem-SD run with 2014 meteorology as well as eight models that participated in POLMIP (2008 meteorology). Part of this discrepancy is due to a clear-sky sampling bias that affects CONTRAST observations; accounting for this bias and also for a small difference in chemical mechanism results in our empirically based value of OHCOL being 0 to 20% larger than found within global models. While these global models simulate observed O3 reasonably well, they underestimate NOx (NO +NO2) by a factor of 2, resulting in OHCOL approx.30% lower than box model simulations constrained by observed NO. Underestimations by CTMs of observed CH3CHO throughout the troposphere and of HCHO in the upper troposphere further contribute to differences between our constrained estimates of OH and those calculated by CTMs. Finally, our calculations do not support the prior suggestion of the existence of a tropospheric OH minimum in the TWP, because during January-February 2014 observed levels of O3 and NO were considerably larger than previously reported values in the TWP.

Hydroxyl radical↗
NASA NTRS1999

Low Energy Sputtering Experiments for Ion Engine Lifetime Assessment

The sputtering yield of molybdenum under xenon ion bombardment was measured using a Quartz Crystal Microbalance. The measurements were made for ion kinetic energies in the range 100-1keV on molybdenum films deposited by magnetron sputtering in conditions optimized to reproduce or approach bulk-like properties. SEM micrographs for different anode bias voltages during the deposition are compared, and four different methods were implemented to estimate the density of the molybdenum films. A careful discussion of the Quartz Crystal Microbalance is proposed and it is shown that this method can be used to measure mass changes that are distributed unevenly on the crystal electrode surface, if an analytical expression is known for the differential mass-sensitivity of the crystal and the erosion profile. Finally, results are presented that are in good agreement with previously published data, and it is concluded that this method holds the promise of enabling sputtering yield measurements at energies closer to the threshold energy in the very short term.

Duchemin Olivier B.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Towards Commercialization of Low-Cost, Crack-Tolerant, Screen-Printable Metallization by Full-Size Module Testing and Field Characterization

This project is motivated by the need to develop a materials engineering solution to reduce solar module degradation caused by cell cracks. The cell-crack-induced power loss is a long-term degradation mechanism and one of the main causes of solar panel field failures. Cell cracks can occur during module fabrication, transportation, installation, and long-term operation due to thermomechanical stressors. Our team’s internal estimation – based on the national weather pattern, frequency of severe weather, and 39- GW asset survey by Heliolytics – reveals that the cell-crack-induced module degradation translates to lost revenues >$17B over an average 5-year period for solar farm owners and to reduced reliability (<25 years panel lifetime) for solar energy consumers. In response to this challenge, the prime recipient offers a metal matrix composite (MMC) silver paste that is tailor-engineered for screen-printing gridlines and busbars, which serve as the electrical contacts on solar cells. We formulate our MMC paste by adding low-cost (∼0.02¢/WDC for research grade), surface-engineered carbon nanotubes to commercially available silver paste. The MMC paste offers a drop-in, cost-effective solution to cell cracks for solar cell and module manufacturers. The main goal of this project was to conduct field-relevant, module-level analysis and qualification of MMC metallization.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

HCN emissions from the explosive volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, Philippines, in June 1991

In June 1991, Mt. Pinatubo explosively erupted magma and overlying rock, with ejecta reaching stratospheric altitudes. The sulphate aerosol burden resulting from the 1991 eruption was still measurable in 1992 and its complete removal took 5-6 years. Here we present new analyses of measurements by the ATMOS instrument on the Atlas-1 Space Shuttle mission and the MkIV balloon interferometer in 1992 that show about 40-50 ppt of unexpected excess HCN in the middle stratosphere. HCN has no stratospheric sources and a lifetime of several years. Multi-year runs with the GEOS-Chem Chemistry-Transport model have been performed in order to derive the most plausible HCN injection amounts. The overall structure of the modeled HCN agrees reasonably well with observations by MkIV and ATMOS. The current best estimate is an emission of about 6 kt of HCN into the stratosphere at an altitude of about 23 km. This compares to a total gas emission in the order of 70-700 Mt, based on an emission of 14 Mt SO2 and an SO2/total gas ratio of 2% - 20%. We will discuss possible sources and formation mechanisms of the HCN. These include abiotic formation during or prior to the eruption and may involve HCN accumulated in the subaerial volcanic-hydrothermal system of Mt. Pinatubo. We present results from thermochemical equilibrium calculations as well as photochemical plume modeling in order to provide plausibility constraints on the source of the HCN.

Armin Kleinboehl↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Extremely High Isp Spacecraft Propulsion System

Specific Impulse, Isp, is a measure of a rocket engine’s efficiency. It is calculated relative to the Earth’s gravitational field, where Isp = ve/ go, with go= 9.8 m/s2 and the escape velocity of the propellant, ve, in m/s. Chemical rockets have ve < 4.4x103 m/s and Isp < 450 seconds. As an alternative, the NASA Glenn Research Center developed multiple generations of Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP), high Isp, ion engines using Xe gas as a propellant. Consequently, over 100 SEP Ion Thrusters provide geo-synchronous station keeping along with deep space probes like Deep Space One and Dawn. These have ve » 2.9 x 104 m/s with Isp = 3x103 seconds. These thrusters have continuous operating lifetimes of thousands of hours allowing continuous acceleration making up for the very low thrust. Chang-Diaz’ Variable Specific Impulse Magnetoplasma Rocket (VASIMR) has the potential for four times the propellant escape velocity and four times the specific impulse1. Unfortunately, this comes at a tremendous electrical power cost, estimated at 200 kWe for maintaining the International Space Station in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Although nuclear fission and fusion reactors2 have been suggested for powering nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) it only doubles the Isp over chemical rockets but with comparable thrust. Instead, we propose using Lattice Confinement Fusion (LCF) reactions.

High Isp Propulsion↗
DOE OSTI2024

Recommendations for an Applicant to Calculate Activity Data for Greenhouse Gases Estimates

In 2009, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) directed the NRC staff to address climate change issues and consider the impacts of the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) in its environmental reviews for major licensing actions (NRC 2009b). To implement this direction from the Commission, the staff issued guidance in 2011 and updated guidance in 2014 in Attachment 1 to Interim Staff Guidance COL/ESP-ISG-026 (NRC 2011; NRC 2014). This guidance provides a simpler method than the method described in RG 4.2 Rev. 3, that an applicant can use to meet the plant parameter envelope (PPE) value from the Generic Environmental Impact Statement for Licensing of New Nuclear Reactors (NR GEIS). NRC staff estimated the 97-year lifecycle GHG emissions from a reference 1000 megawatt electrical (MWe) light-water reactor (LWR) for various activities associated with construction, operation (including uranium fuel cycle), and decommissioning of nuclear power plants and presented the results in Appendix H of the NR GEIS. Appendix H of the NR GEIS includes estimates of direct emissions from construction equipment and emergency diesel engines in a nuclear facility and indirect emissions from workforce vehicular traffic, fuel transportation and the uranium fuel cycle. The NR GEIS Section 3.3 extended the estimates in Appendix H for the installation of two 1000 MWe nuclear reactors on the same site. Scaling factors were used to extrapolate the GHG emissions of a reference 1000 MWe reactor to a two-unit nuclear reactor plant (each reactor unit generating 1000 MWe). GHG emission estimates for building, operation, decommissioning and safe storage (SAFSTOR) for a two-unit nuclear reactor plant would be based on the plant’s physical size, and therefore estimates for these source categories were assumed to be twice the value of the reference 1000 MWe reactor. However, GHG emissions from the fuel cycle (including fuel transportation) were scaled upward by a factor of 3, based on plant efficiencies greater than the 80 percent assumption in Appendix H. Table 1 below shows the PPE emissions for two 1000 MWe nuclear reactors as provided in NR GEIS. The total GHG emissions for two 1000 MWe reactors were calculated as 2,534,000 metric tons (MT) of CO 2 equivalent (CO 2 (e)) based on a 97 year GHG life cycle period. The GHG emissions lifetime of 97 years for a reference nuclear reactor includes a 7-year building phase, 40 years of operation, 10 years of active decommissioning, and 40 years of SAFSTOR operations (NRC 2024). Construction equipment and vehicular traffic from workers commute would contribute to the GHG emissions during a 7-year building phase. Uranium fuel cycle, vehicular traffic, fuel and waste transportation, and testing of standby diesel generators would contribute to GHG emissions during the 40-year operations phase. While NRC’s regulations allow up to 60 years of reactor facility decommissioning, Appendix H estimated that most of the GHGs would occur over an estimated 10-year period during which to the licensee would engage in significant demolition and earth-moving activities, as discussed in Supplement 1 to NUREG-0586 (NRC 2002). Vehicular traffic by the workforce during a 40-year SAFSTOR period would additionally contribute GHG emissions. The carbon footprint for a 40-year SAFSTOR period was separately analyzed from the decommissioning activities as provided in Table YYYY-2 of the staff issued guidance in 2011 (NRC 2011).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Searching for TeV Dark Matter in Irregular Dwarf Galaxies with HAWC Observatory

We present the results of dark matter (DM) searches in a sample of 31 dwarf irregular (dIrr) galaxies within the field of view of the HAWC Observatory. dIrr galaxies are DM-dominated objects in which astrophysical gamma-ray emission is estimated to be negligible with respect to the secondary gamma-ray flux expected by annihilation or decay of weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs). While we do not see any statistically significant DM signal in dIrr galaxies, we present the exclusion limits (95% C.L.) for annihilation cross section and decay lifetime for WIMP candidates with masses between 1 and 100 TeV. Exclusion limits from dIrr galaxies are relevant and complementary to benchmark dwarf Spheroidal (dSph) galaxies. In fact, dIrr galaxies are targets kinematically different from benchmark dSph, preserving the footprints of different evolution histories. We compare the limits from dIrr galaxies to those from ultrafaint and classical dSph galaxies previously observed with HAWC. We find that the constraints are comparable to the limits from classical dSph galaxies and ~2 orders of magnitude weaker than the ultrafaint dSph limits.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1996

Estimate of Space Radiation-Induced Cancer Risks for International Space Station Orbits

Excess cancer risks from exposures to space radiation are estimated for various orbits of the International Space Station (ISS). Organ exposures are computed with the transport codes, BRYNTRN and HZETRN, and the computerized anatomical male and computerized anatomical female models. Cancer risk coefficients in the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements report No. 98 are used to generate lifetime excess cancer incidence and cancer mortality after a one-month mission to ISS. The generated data are tabulated to serve as a quick reference for assessment of radiation risk to astronauts on ISS missions.

Wu, Honglu↗
NASA NTRS2018

Mission Summary of Cassini Spacecraft Guidance and Control Hardware Health and Performance

The Cassini-Huygens mission ended on September 15, 2017, after nearly two decades in ight. The well-designed Cassini spacecraft had robust hardware that permitted two extended missions, lasting nine years longer than the expected prime mission. At the end of the mission, the Attitude and Articulation Control Subsystem (AACS) was using two pieces of redundant back-up of hardware, one reaction wheel and the hydrazine thruster branch, due to hardware anomalies earlier in the mission. The back-up hardware performed nominally through the rest of mission. The prime reaction wheels at the end of the mission had reached more than 130% of the consumable limit for number of revolutions. No thruster on either thruster branch accumulated more than 45% of the consumable limits. The inertial reference unit slightly exceeded the pre-launch requirements on bias error, but as the software continuously estimated this value in ight, the attitude estimation was not adversely a ected. The star trackers performed nominally, and though there was a spacecraft anomaly in 1998 related to the star trackers, the origin was not in hardware itself. The Sun sensors and accelerometer both performed as expected and met all requirements throughout the mission. Ultimately, the lifetime of the Cassini spacecraft was not limited by hardware performance. Planetary protection requirements necessitated the end of the mission as the spacecraft's propellant reserves depleted, and Cassini plunged into Saturn's atmosphere with a healthy attitude control system.

Stupik, Joan↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Machine Learning to Estimate Surface-Level SO2 Concentrations from Satellite-Based Measurements

Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is a criteria air pollutant due to its contributions to aerosol formation, rainfall acidification, and harm to human health. The placement of air quality monitoring sites is typically biased towards urban areas, leaving large areas with very limited monitoring data. The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) has been used to provide estimates of SO2 vertical column densities (VCDs) globally at spatial resolution of 10s of kms once per day. OMI SO2 VCDs have been previously used to estimate surface SO2 concentrations using chemical transport model (CTM) simulations. The CTMs use estimated emissions and assimilated meteorological data, and simulate the chemical and physical processes that determine the vertical profile of SO2, which can be used to derive a ratio between the surface concentrations and VCDs. These models are complex, computationally expensive, and have large uncertainties in the simulated surface-to-VCD ratio due to biases in emissions and relatively coarse resolution. Machine learning techniques are comparatively easier to use, much less computationally expensive to use after training, and can produce more accurate estimations of surface concentrations than the CTM-based method. The interpretation of machine learning models often poses challenges, and in some cases, non-physical variables unrelated to SO2 are used as predictors. In this work, we create an artificial neural network (ANN) to relate OMI retrievals and archived GEOS-FP boundary layer heights to surface SO2 concentrations from the ChinaHighAirPollutants ChinaHighSO2 dataset (CHAP; Wei et al., 2023) on a seasonal average timescale from 2013-2018. Our model only utilizes five variables that are directly relevant to the satellite retrieval, lifetime, and spatial distribution of SO2. The model was trained on 16 seasons (four of each) with independent validation (one of each season) and testing datasets (one of each season) to avoid overfitting. Our ANN generates surface SO2 concentrations that are sensitive (slope = 0.51) and consistent (r = 0.74) with the CHAP data, but are underpredicted by an average of 1.2 ppbv with a mean absolute error of 2.2 ppbv. These results are better than recent studies utilizing the CTM method. To our knowledge, this is the best performing machine learning model that only uses physical variables to predict surface SO2. Our work demonstrates that a carefully constructed, simple ML model can accurately estimate surface-based SO2 concentrations from satellite VCD measurements, and this technique has future promise to expend to newer, higher resolution satellites and other air pollutants.

SO2, air quality, OMI, machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2024

Oxygen vacancy migration and impact on high voltage DC polarization in 0.8BaTiO 3 –0.2BiZn 0.5 Ti 0.5 O 3

Electrical polarization and defect transport are examined in 0.8BaTiO 3 –0.2BiZn 0.5 Ti 0.5 O 3 , an attractive capacitor material for high power electronics. Oxygen vacancies are suggested to be the majority charge carrier at or below 250°C with a grain conduction hopping activation energy of 0.97 eV and 0.92 eV for thermally stimulated depolarization current (TSDC) and impedance spectroscopy measurements, respectively. At higher temperature, thermally generated electronic conduction with an activation energy of 1.6 eV is dominant. Significant oxygen vacancy concentration is indicated (up to ~1%) due to cation vacancy formation (i.e., acceptor defects) from observed Bi (and likely Zn) volatility. Oxygen vacancy diffusivity is estimated to be 10 -12.8 cm 2 /s at 250°C. Low diffusivity and high activation energies are indicative of significant defect interactions. Dipolar oxygen vacancy defects are also indicated, with an activation energy of 0.59 eV from TSDC measurements. In conclusion, the large oxygen vacancy content leads to a short lifetime during high voltage (30 kV/cm), high temperature (250°C) direct current (DC) electrical measurements.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS1998

Observations from Long-Term Performance Monitoring of the TOPEX Radar Altimeter

From its August 1992 launch to the present, we have performed performance analysis and engineering assessment for the TOPEX radar altimeter. We continually update databases containing: (1) on-board engineering parameters such as temperatures, voltages, and currents; (2) internal calibration mode indications of bias changes in range and power estimates; and (3) global over-ocean averages of geophysical quantities such as significant waveheight (SWH) and ocean surface radar backscattering cross-section (sigmaO). For some time now we have seen an apparent increase in the TOPEX cycle-average SWH, amounting now to an increase of about 10% from our earlier mission value of about 2.8 m. Recently several investigators have reported that the TOPEX SWH is increasing relative to ERS-2 and to ocean buoy measurements. We examined the past six years of waveform data from an internal calibration mode (Cal 1) which samples the altimeter's point target response (ptr), and found that the ptr sidelobes are apparently greater now than at start of mission. Modeling studies indicate that the sidelobe enhancement can account for most of the increase in the TOPEX SWH estimate; that is, the SWH increase is not real but result of some drift within the altimeter. Our modeling indicates that the TOPEX range estimates will change less than a centimeter for ptr changes seen to date. An approximate recipe for correcting the TOPEX SWH values will be made available on our web site (http://topex.wffnasa.gov/). We emphasize that a radar altimeter is a complex system requiring continuing calibration and monitoring throughout its entire lifetime.

Hayne, G. S.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Air Pollution Trends Measured From Terra: CO and AOD Over Industrial, Fire-prone, and Background Regions

Following past studies to quantify decadal trends in global carbon monoxide (CO) using satellite observations, we update estimates and find a CO trend in column amounts of about −0.50 % per year between 2002 to 2018, which is a deceleration compared to analyses performed on shorter records that found −1 % per year. Aerosols are co-emitted with CO from both fires and anthropogenic sources but with a shorter lifetime than CO. A combined trend analysis of CO and aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements from space helps to diagnose the drivers of regional differences in the CO trend. We use the long-term records of CO from the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) and AOD from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument. Other satellite instruments measuring CO in the thermal infrared, AIRS, TES, IASI, and CrIS, show consistent hemispheric CO variability and corroborate results from the trend analysis performed with MOPITT CO. Trends are examined by hemisphere and in regions for 2002 to 2018, with uncertainties quantified. The CO and AOD records are split into two sub-periods (2002 to 2010 and 2010 to 2018) in order to assess trend changes over the 16 years. We focus on four major population centers: Northeast China, North India, Europe, and Eastern USA, as well as fire-prone regions in both hemispheres. In general, CO declines faster in the first half of the record compared to the second half, while AOD trends show more variability across regions. We find evidence of the atmospheric impact of air quality management policies. The large decline in CO found over Northeast China is initially associated with an improvement in combustion efficiency, with subsequent additional air quality improvements from 2010 onwards. Industrial regions with minimal emission control measures such as North India become more globally relevant as the global CO trend weakens. We also examine the CO trends in monthly percentile values to understand seasonal implications and find that local changes in biomass burning are sufficiently strong to counteract the global downward trend in atmospheric CO, particularly in late summer.

carbon monoxide↗
DOE OSTI2023

Techno-Economic and life cycle assessment of standalone Single-Stream material recovery facilities in the United states

Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs) are crucial players in achieving a circular economy. MRFs receive complex waste streams and separate valuable recyclables from these mixtures. This study conducts techno-economic analysis (TEA) to estimate the net present value (NPV) and life cycle assessment (LCA) to estimate different environmental impacts of a commercial scale standalone, single-stream MRF to assess the economic feasibility and environmental impacts of recovering valuable recyclables from an MRF processing 120,000 tonnes per year (t/y). The TEA employs a discounted cash flow rate of return (DCFROR) analysis over a 20-year facility lifetime, along with a sensitivity analysis on the impact of different operating and economic parameters. Results show that the total fixed cost of building the MRF facility is $\$ $23 MM, and the operating cost is $\$ $45.48/tonne. Further the NPV of the MRF can vary from $\$ $3.57 MM to $\$ $60 MM, while 100-year global warming potential can range from 5.98 to 8.53 kg carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2-eq) per tonne of MSW. We have also found that MSW composition (arising from regional effects) significantly impacts costs, 100-year global warming potential, and other impact categories such as acidification potential, eutrophication potential, ecotoxicity, ozone depletion, photochemical oxidation, carcinogenic effects, and non-carcinogenic effects. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis indicate that waste composition and market prices significantly impact the profitability of the MRF, and the waste composition mostly impacts global warming potential. Our analysis also indicates that facility capacity, fixed capital cost, and waste tipping fees are vital parameters that affect the economic viability of MRF operations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Neutron tagging following atmospheric neutrino events in a water Cherenkov detector

We present the development of neutron-tagging techniques in Super-Kamiokande IV using a neural network analysis. The detection efficiency of neutron capture on hydrogen is estimated to be 26%, with a mis-tag rate of 0.016 per neutrino event. The uncertainty of the tagging efficiency is estimated to be 9.0%. Measurement of the tagging efficiency with data from an Americium-Beryllium calibration agrees with this value within 10%. The tagging procedure was performed on 3,244.4 days of SK-IV atmospheric neutrino data, identifying 18,091 neutrons in 26,473 neutrino events. The fitted neutron capture lifetime was measured as 218±9 μs.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS1992

Cosmic-ray exposure history of ordinary chondrites

The exposure age histograms for H-, L-, and LL-chondrites are discussed. None of these histograms is consistent with a continuous delivery of asteroidal material to the earth, as the observed T(e) histograms clearly disagree with expected exponential distributions for a variety of orbital lifetimes. It is concluded that T(e) histograms are dominated by stochastic events and that the continuous supply of asteroidal material can account only for a minor background of the T(e) histograms. An attempt is made to identify major collisional levels among the major classes of ordinary chondrites in order to estimate the frequency of stochastic events. Orbital maturity in the inner solar system is documented by the p.m./total fall ratio among observed meteorite falls. All chondrite classes exhibit a uniform ratio of 2/3 except type H5 chondrites, which reveal a 0.5 or lower p.m./total fall ratio. This shift in the time of fall statistics suggests a strongly evolved orbit for the H5 parent at the time of collision about 7 Ma ago.

Marti, K.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Resource Adequacy and Capital Cost Considerations Pertaining to Large Electric Grids Powered by Wind, Solar, Storage, Gas, and Nuclear

The capacity and generation of wind, solar, storage, nuclear, and gas are estimated for large, idealized copper-plate electric grids. Wind and solar penetrations of 30% to 80% are considered together with different storage systems such as vanadium and lithium-ion batteries, pumped hydroelectric, compressed air, and hydrogen. In addition to a baseline dispatchable fleet without wind/solar, two bounding cases with wind/solar are analyzed: one without storage and one where the whole wind/solar fleet is connected to the storage system, hence providing a buffer between the wind/solar fleet and the grid. The reality will likely be somewhere between these bounding cases. The viability of a power grid with a large wind/solar penetration and no storage is not guaranteed but was nonetheless considered to provide a lower-bound capital cost estimate. Overall, the options that rely strongly on wind, solar, and storage could be significantly more capital-intensive than those that rely strongly on nuclear, depending on the amount of storage necessary to ensure grid stability. This is especially true in the long run because wind, solar, and storage assets have shorter lifetimes than nuclear plants and, consequently, need to be replaced more frequently. More analyses (e.g., grid stability and public acceptance) are necessary to determine which option is most likely to provide the path of least resistance to powering a clean, affordable, and reliable grid in a timely manner. Depending on the priorities, the path of least resistance may not necessarily be the one that is less capital intensive.

adequacy↗
NASA NTRS1991

Future mission studies: Preliminary comparisons of solar flux models

The results of comparisons of the solar flux models are presented. (The wavelength lambda = 10.7 cm radio flux is the best indicator of the strength of the ionizing radiations such as solar ultraviolet and x-ray emissions that directly affect the atmospheric density thereby changing the orbit lifetime of satellites. Thus, accurate forecasting of solar flux F sub 10.7 is crucial for orbit determination of spacecrafts.) The measured solar flux recorded by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is compared against the forecasts made by Schatten, MSFC, and NOAA itself. The possibility of a combined linear, unbiased minimum-variance estimation that properly combines all three models into one that minimizes the variance is also discussed. All the physics inherent in each model are combined. This is considered to be the dead-end statistical approach to solar flux forecasting before any nonlinear chaotic approach.

Ashrafi, S.↗