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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Internal Architecture of the Common Habitat

The core stage liquid oxygen tank of the Space Launch System can be manufactured as a habitat instead of as a propellant tank, with a common design such that it is equally suitable for use in 0g, 1/6g, 3/8g, 1g, or variable artificial gravity. This Common Habitat can be the central element of a human spaceflight architecture that encompasses the Moon, Mars, and other destinations within the inner solar system. The Common Habitat is specifically used within an alternative architecture study (that is not part of the current NASA baseline) as the core habitation element within a Lunar Basecamp, Mars Basecamp, and the Deep Space Exploration Vehicle. The Common Habitat internal architecture applies a design philosophy to separate crew functions according to deck. The lower deck is reserved for private functions. It includes eight private crew quarters and four waste and hygiene clusters – each with a private waste management compartment, private full body hygiene compartment, and foyer/clothes changing area. The mid deck is primarily allocated to mission-related working functions. It includes an exercise facility, fabrication / maintenance / repair facility, physical science laboratory (physics, geology, and astronomy), and life science laboratory (biology and human research). The mid deck also has four external hatches, clocked one every 90 degrees, centered on the vehicle vertical centerline. Each hatch has a 60-inch tall by 40-inch wide opening with the mid deck floor 16 inches below the bottom lip of the hatch opening. The upper deck is primarily allocated to group or social functions. It includes a large galley, wardroom with projector and display screen, plant growth chambers, bulk stowage, command and control station, medical facility, hygiene compartment, and vehicle subsystems. A Vertical Translation System, based in part on results from a GrabCAD public challenge, enables crew and equipment traverse between habitat decks in 0g, 1/6g, 3/8g, and 1g. A 40-inch by 60-inch vertical translation corridor ensures that anything that can fit through the external hatches can also be moved from deck to deck. The system includes three component systems: a deploying floor to safety barrier system that folds down to become a traversable floor when vertical translation is not in use and deploys to become a safety barrier during vertical translations; a folding ladder that stows in the ceiling when not in use; and an elevator platform that can attach to the ladder for cargo or incapacitated crew member transport. This system is complemented by a Horizontal Translation System, also based in part on the same GrabCAD challenge, provides for horizontal crew translation in microgravity but requires no vehicle reconfiguration for fractional or whole gravity operation. It relies primarily on gecko-inspired grippers, originally developed at Stanford and NASA JPL, attached to footwear to enable crew to emulate walking. Some handrails are also strategically placed throughout the Common Habitat to aid translation in both gravity and microgravity environments.

Common Habitat↗

NASA NTRS2021

The impacts of warming on rapidly retreating high-altitude, low-latitude glaciers and ice core-derived climate records

Alpine glaciers in the low- and mid-latitudes respond more quickly than large polar ice sheets to changes in temperature, precipitation, cloudiness, humidity, and radiation. Many high-altitude glaciers are monitored by ground observations, aerial photography, and satellite-borne sensors. Regardless of latitude and elevation, nearly all nonpolar glaciers and ice caps are undergoing mass loss, which compromises the records of past climate preserved within them. Almost without exception, the retreat of these ice fields is persistent, and a very important driver is the recent warming of the tropical troposphere and oceans. Here we present data on the decrease in the surface area of four glaciers from low- to mid-latitude mountainous regions: the Andes of Peru and northern Bolivia, equatorial east Africa, equatorial Papua, Indonesia, and the western Tibetan Plateau. Climate records based on oxygen isotopic ratios (δ18O) measured in ice cores drilled from several glaciers in these regions reveal that the records from elevations below ~6000 m above sea level have been substantially modified by seasonal melting and the movement of meltwater through porous upper firn layers. Fortunately, δ18O records recovered from higher altitude sites still contain well-preserved seasonal variations to the surface; however, the projected increase in the rate of atmospheric warming implies that climate records from higher elevation glaciers will eventually also be degraded. A long-term ice core collection program on the Quelccaya ice cap in Peru, Earth's largest tropical ice cap, illustrates that the deterioration of its climate record is concomitant with the increase in mid-troposphere temperatures. The melting ice and resulting growth of proglacial lakes presents an imminent hazard to nearby communities. The accelerating melting of glaciers, if sustained, ensures the eventual loss of unique and irreplaceable climate histories, as well as profound economic, agricultural, and cultural impacts on local communities.

Low-latitude glaciers↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of Thermochromic Coatings on Thermal Management for Human Spacecraft Applications

Thermochromic variable emittance coatings (VECs) allow for passive, dynamic thermal management of space vehicles due to their temperature dependent optical properties. Ideally, a thermochromic material should exhibit low mid-IR emissivity for lower temperatures and switch to high mid-IR emissivity for higher temperatures; one promising material that demonstrates these characteristics is Lanthanum Strontium Manganite (LSM). The transition temperatures of LSM are dependent on the Lanthanum-to-Strontium ratio x, La1-xSrxMnO3. La0.8Sr0.2MnO3, which has an emittance of 0.5 for < 270 K, then a linear increase in emittance to 0.8 over an increase of 70 K where it will saturate at ~340K, is commonly utilized but this is tunable by changing the Sr concentration. The tunability of the transition temperature range of LSM motivates a need to understand the optimal thermal transition range for human spacecraft. Additionally, LSM has high solar absorptance and to combat this issue the VEC will be micropatterned on top of a highly solar reflective layer of Barium Sulfate (BaSO4). Consequently, this work will elucidate the tradeoffs between solar absorptance and variable emittance for this technology since the micropattern adversely couples the solar absorptance to the mid-IR emittance. This work develops a computational model using Thermal Desktop to study the utility of VECs on human spacecraft, such as Orion, subjected to mission phases such as lunar transit and Gateway docking. The model considers both external heat loads, from solar irradiation and planetary IR, as well as vehicle heat loads, from avionics and crew, as an input into the body mounted thermochromic radiators. There are several design targets for VECs, i.e. achieving the largest change in emittance, finding the optimal temperature range for the transition, and achieving the highest emittance in the high temperature phase. This work prioritizes these design targets for LSM to achieve the optimal heat rejection for a human spacecraft. The VECs are compared with static emittance coatings and the efficiency gains are quantified. Thermochromic VECs will ultimately lead to simplifications of active cooling systems which synergistically correlates to mass reduction and less energy consumption for space vehicles.

Joseph Peoples↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Internal Architecture of the Common Habitat

The core stage liquid oxygen tank of the Space Launch System can be manufactured as a habitat instead of as a propellant tank, with a common design such that it is equally suitable for use in 0g, 1/6g, 3/8g, 1g, or variable artificial gravity. It is capable of sustaining a crew size of eight for missions up to 1200 days in duration. This Common Habitat can be the central element of a human spaceflight architecture that encompasses the Moon, Mars, and other destinations within the inner solar system. Within this archtiecture, the Common Habitat is specifically used as the core habitation element within a Lunar Base Camp, Mars Base Camp, and the Deep Space Exploration Vehicle. The Common Habitat internal architecture applies a design philosophy to separate crew functions according to deck. The lower deck is reserved for private functions. It includes eight private crew quarters and four waste and hygiene clusters – each with a private waste management compartment, private full body hygiene compartment, and private foyer/clothes changing area. The mid deck is primarily allocated to mission-related functions. It includes an exercise facility, fabrication / maintenance / repair facility, physical science laboratory (physics, geology, and remote sensing: astronomy, heliophysics, planetary science, and Earth science), and life science laboratory (biology and human research). The mid deck also has four external hatches, clocked one every 90 degrees, centered on the vehicle vertical centerline. Each hatch has a 60-inch tall by 40-inch wide opening with the mid deck floor 16 inches below the bottom lip of the hatch opening. The upper deck also includes some mission functions, but is primarily allocated to social functions. It includes a large galley, wardroom with projector and display screen, plant growth chambers, bulk stowage, command and control station, medical facility, hygiene compartment, and vehicle subsystems.

Habitability↗

NASA NTRS2022

Modeling the Lunar Wake Response to a CME Using a Hybrid PIC Model

In the solar wind, a low-density wake region forms downstream of the nightside lunar surface. In this study, we use a series of 3D hybrid particle-in-cell simulations to model the response of the lunar wake to a passing coronal mass ejection (CME). Average plasma parameters are derived from the Wind spacecraft located at 1 au during three distinct phases of a passing halo (Earth-directed) CME on 2015 June 22. Each set of plasma parameters, representing the shock/plasma sheath, a magnetic cloud, and plasma conditions we call the mid-CME phase, are used as the time-static upstream boundary conditions for three separate simulations. These simulation results are then compared with results that use nominal solar wind conditions. Results show a shortened plasma void compared to nominal conditions and a distinctive rarefaction cone originating from the terminator during the CME's plasma sheath phase, while a highly elongated plasma void reforms during the magnetic cloud and mid-CME phases. Developments of electric and magnetic field intensification are also observed during the plasma sheath phase along the central wake, while electrostatic turbulence dominates along the plasma void boundaries and 2–3 lunar radii RM downstream in the central wake during the magnetic cloud and mid-CME phases. The simulations demonstrate that the lunar wake responds in a dynamic way with the changes in the upstream solar wind during a CME.

Anthony P. Rasca↗

NASA NTRS2021

Quasi-two-day wave modulation of carbon dioxide in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere

In this paper, we report the quasi-two-day wave (QTDW) in daytime only SABER CO2 in January 2003. The QTDW in CO2 of ∼7 ppmv or 3–4% shows double peak structures at mid and low latitudes of both hemispheres. We compare the SABER measured QTDW disturbance in CO2 and temperature to those in the eCMAM (the extended Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model). Good agreement of QTDW CO2 spatial and temporal variations is seen, especially at southern mid-latitudes. eCMAM outputs are further analyzed to show that the QTDW in CO2 mixing ratio is mainly driven by both vertical transport and meridional advection. Because waves in vertical transport can be derived by temperature disturbance via a so-called adiabatic displacement approach, we can estimate the QTDW in CO2 mixing ratio from the SABER QTDW in temperature assuming meridional advection is weak at low and mid-latitudes.

planetary wave; carbon dioxide↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Vertical Translation System for the Common Habitat Architecture

The Common Habitat is a large, long-duration habitat that uses an SLS core stage Liquid Oxygen (LOX) tank as its primary structure. Measuring 8.4 meters in diameter and 15 meters in length, it is manufactured as a habitat and launched as such into space. It is intended for use on the Moon as part of a permanently occupied outpost, on Mars as part of an outpost that will be occupied for hundreds of days at a time, and in deep space as part of the Deep Space Exploration Vehicle where it will support crewed missions up to 1200 days in duration. A study of internal orientation and crew size resulted in a Common Habitat configuration sized for a crew of eight with a three-deck horizontal orientation. The Common Habitat Vertical Translation System provides a means for transporting crew and cargo between decks in a Common Habitat spacecraft in gravity levels varying from 0g to 1g. A crowdsourcing campaign was conducted through the GrabCAD platform to initially solicit ideas for restraints and mobility aids, including vertical translation. Four of the five top responses repeated ideas that would be incorporated into features of the Vertical Translation System. The first was a safety barrier (to prevent falls into the opening between decks) that could collapse to form a floor surface covering the opening when not in use. The second idea was a folding ladder that could be stowed in the ceiling when not in use. The third idea was an elevator platform that could traverse the ladder. Several key driving requirements were established for the Vertical Translation System: it may not penetrate into or through the lower deck; it must work on the Earth, Moon, Mars, and in microgravity; it must be easy to operate; it must enable translation of any item that can fit through the Common Habitat’s 40” x 60” hatches, inclusive of suited and unsuited crew with any degree of incapacitation and any equipment or cargo item; and it must include three component systems – deploying floor / safety barriers, a deployable ladder, and an elevator platform. Additional requirements were established for each of the component systems. The safety barriers must form a roughly 40-inch tall, complete wall enclosure on all four sides when deployed; it must include an easy to open gate that allows access to/from the ladder when deployed; and when retracted, the safety barrier must form a smooth, load-bearing floor that can be walked on, and wheeled objects can be rolled across in gravity, without being a trip hazard. The deployable ladder must be composed of multiple ladders that work together; it must stow in the ceiling when not in use; and it must not penetrate into the 40” x 60” vertical passage corridor. The elevator platform must work with the deployable ladder system; it must be able to bridge any gap in ladders between decks; it must stop at each deck flush with the deck surface; it must be capable of transporting an incapacitated crew member as a single rescuer operation; it must be capable of transporting a full-size subsystems pallet; it must function as an elevator for a crew member carrying large objects; it must have safety functions to prevent falls from the platform, or crew/cargo collisions with edges of hatch openings, or entanglement with ladder rungs/structure; it must stow when not in use; and it must autonomously both connect itself to the ladder and deploy itself to any deck where needed when called (e.g., a crew member on any deck can call for the platform and it must connect itself to the ladders without assistance and translate to the requestor’s deck). These requirements were developed into a system concept with the assistance of a NASA Pathways Intern who also added the requirement to size the design based on the use of commercial components, using existing motors and other mechanisms to ensure that the resulting system could be inexpensively produced. The Floor and Safety Barrier consists of four panels, two roughly 40 inches long and two roughly 60 inches long that can fold into the floor on top of each other when not in use. The uppermost panel is load bearing and acts as the floor surface. When deployed, they connect with each other to form a rigid barrier surrounding the vertical passageway. One of the panels contains a hinged gate that can be opened when deployed to allow for access to/from the passageway. The Deploying Ladder consists of two ladder segments, one mounted on the ceiling of the lower deck and the other mounted on the ceiling of the mid deck. A rotating mechanism is mounted on the ladder to allow it to rotate into a horizontal position against the ceiling for stowage, or down to a vertical position for use. A second rotating mechanism is built into the ladder, allowing the rungs to rotate. A toothed surface intended to work with the elevator platform covers the front of the ladder rails and the top and bottom of the rails are designed to be flush when aligned with another ladder segment. The elevator platform is essentially a motorized, self-propelled deck. It has a mechanism that holds it in contact with the ladder rails and drives itself against the toothed surface. This mechanism allows the elevator platform to ascend or descend the ladder. In order to stow the platform when not in use, a set of short ladder rails (without rungs) are mounted to the ceiling of the mid deck. When the mid deck ladder is stowed, it is flush with these rails and the platform can drive itself onto those short rails for stowage. An additional mechanism on the platform can pitch its deck surface 90 degrees, such that when the ladder is to be stowed, the platform can fold up against the ceiling. As a consequence of the ladder and elevator platform design, the opening between decks in the Common Habitat was enlarged to ensure that the elevator platform can accept a payload up to 40”x60” in dimension.

Human Centered Design↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Science Capabilities of the Common Habitat

The Common Habitat is the primary habitable element in a conceptual architecture feasibility study for long-duration space exploration with an eight-person crew size. On lunar or planetary surfaces, the Common Habitat forms the core of a Surface Base Camp. In microgravity, the Common Habitat is the core of the Deep Space Exploration Vehicle (DSEV), an in-space transportation spacecraft. The Common Habitat employs a horizontal orientation that is divided internally into a lower deck, mid deck, and upper deck, roughly separating outfitting into individual, work, and group functions. On a planetary surface, the habitat is incorporated into a base camp, located near the south pole in the case of the Moon. The Mars base camp is currently location agnostic. Each base camp is divided into habitation, landing, resource production, and power zones. In microgravity, the habitat is incorporated into the Deep Space Exploration Vehicle, a vessel capable of transporting the crew within the inner solar system. In addition to crew and teleoperated control of external science assets, the Common Habitat employs a suite of life and physical science laboratory systems to enable it to support science investigations across a variety of destination environments, primarily featuring the Moon and Mars, along with the intervening interplanetary space. Other potential destinations include Near Earth Asteroids and Venus and Earth orbits. Located in the aft starboard section of the Common Habitat mid deck, the life science laboratory supports primarily biology and human research. In its baseline configuration, the laboratory includes horizontal work surfaces, freezers, multiple gloveboxes, sample transfer/exposure capability, large instruments, and reconfigurable ISPR-compatible payload bays. The Medical Care Facility and exercise facility can also support life science research. In the aft port section of the mid deck, the physical science laboratory supports physics, chemistry, materials science, geology, and remote sensing (including astrophysics, heliophysics, Earth science, planetary science, and meteorology). It provides a baseline of similar ISPR-compatible payload bays and adds additional freezers, including those for cryogenic sample storage, a remote sensing workstation, more gloveboxes, also with sample transfer/exposure, combustion chambers, fluid mechanics chambers, and a gas chromatograph. It leverages the Command & Control Center for teleoperations of mobile science assets. Both laboratories are highly modular, with the ability to swap out both payloads and instruments on an as-needed basis. The integrated science outfitting of the Common Habitat positions its crew to contribute to all of NASA’s Moon to Mars science objectives and extend human understanding into the inner solar system.

Lunar Suface↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Inner Edge of the Habitable Zone for Synchronously Rotating Planets Around Low-Mass Stars Using General Circulation Models

Terrestrial planets at the inner edge of the habitable zone (HZ) of late-K and M-dwarf stars are expected to be in synchronous rotation, as a consequence of strong tidal interactions with their host stars. Previous global climate model (GCM) studies have shown that, for slowly rotating planets, strong convection at the substellar point can create optically thick water clouds, increasing the planetary albedo, and thus stabilizing the climate against a thermal runaway. However these studies did not use self-consistent orbital/rotational periods for synchronously rotating planets placed at different distances from the host star. Here we provide new estimates of the inner edge of the HZ for synchronously rotating terrestrial planets around late-K and M-dwarf stars using a 3D Earth-analog GCM with self-consistent relationships between stellar metallicity, stellar effective temperature, and the planetary orbital/rotational period. We find that both atmospheric dynamics and the efficacy of the substellar cloud deck are sensitive to the precise rotation rate of the planet. Around mid-to-late M-dwarf stars with low metallicity, planetary rotation rates at the inner edge of the HZ become faster, and the inner edge of the HZ is farther away from the host stars than in previous GCM studies. For an Earth-sized planet, the dynamical regime of the substellar clouds begins to transition as the rotation rate approaches ∼10 days. These faster rotation rates produce stronger zonal winds that encircle the planet and smear the substellar clouds around it, lowering the planetary albedo, and causing the onset of the water-vapor greenhouse climatic instability to occur at up to ∼25% lower incident stellar fluxes than found in previous GCM studies. For mid-to-late M-dwarf stars with high metallicity and for mid-K to early-M stars, we agree with previous studies.

Planet and satellite atmospheres↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dynamical Mechanisms Underlying the 2022/23 California Flooding: Analysis With A Stationary Wave Model

In late December 2022 and the first half of January 2023, much of California experienced an unprecedented series of atmospheric rivers that produced heavy rains and near-record flooding. Previous work shows that a chain of dynamical events contributed to the extreme precipitation, including the development of a Rossby wave (as a result of forcing linked to the MJO) that emerged from the Indian Ocean in mid-December, and the subsequent development of a persistent positive Pacific North American (PNA) pattern that ultimately directed moisture onto the US West Coast starting in late December. Here, we use a stationary wave model (SWM) to further elucidate the dynamical and thermodynamical processes that drove the aforementioned chain of events. The results reveal the following: 1) The mid-December Rossby wave was likely induced by vorticity stretching and advection in the middle East linked indirectly to the MJO, 2) The initial development of the PNA in late December was triggered by transient and stretching sources of vorticity in the Pacific that were themselves induced by the aforementioned Rossby wave, and 3) The PNA was maintained through mid-January in part by diabatic heating west of Hawaii that was associated with anomalous precipitation influenced by the PNA circulation anomalies, thus representing a feedback on the PNA. One key finding from the SWM analysis is the limited direct role of tropical heating for inducing any of the dynamical mechanisms related to the California extreme event.

Anthony M. DeAngelis↗

NASA NTRS2023

Deciphering Solar Magnetic Activity: The (Solar) Hale Cycle Terminator of 2021

McIntosh and colleagues identified an event in the solar timeline that appeared to play a role in how Sunspot Cycle 23 (SC23) transitioned into Sunspot Cycle 24 (SC24). The timeframe for this transition was rapid, taking place in as short as time as a solar rotation. M2014 inferred that the transition observed was a critical episode for the Sun’s global-scale magnetic field that was being manifest in the spatially and temporally overlapping and magnetic systems belonging to the Sun’s 22-year (Hale) magnetic cycle. These events have been dubbed as Hale Cycle terminations, or ‘terminators’ for short. Further exploration revealed a relationship between terminator separation (as a measure of overlap in the Hale Cycles) and the upcoming sunspot cycle amplitude. McIntosh and colleagues extrapolated upon this relationship to identify the termination of the SC24 carrying Hale Cycle band in Mid-2020 and inferred that this would result in a very large Sunspot Cycle 25 (SC25). This paper presents observational analysis of the end of SC24 and the initial months of SC25 growth following a terminator that occurred in mid-December 2021 (approximately 12/13/2021). We use the December 2021 terminator to finalize the forecast of SC25 amplitude 184 (±17 with 95% confidence, and ±63 with 68% confidence). Finally, we use other terminator-related superposed epoch analyses to project the timing of SC25 maxima in late 2023 to mid 2024.

Sun↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dynamical Mechanisms Underlying the 2022/23 California Flooding: Analysis With A Stationary Wave Model

Anthony M. DeAngelis↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Subsonic Single Aft Engine Narrowbody (SUSAN) Freighter Concept and Market Analysis

The dedicated air cargo and freight market has the potential to be a critical early pathway for emerging technologies in low to zero emission propulsion. This study analyzes the cargo aviation market to understand current market trends and future market viability of a mid-sized all-electric or hybrid-electric concept aircraft. While cargo aviation’s overall emissions footprint is small relative to commercial passenger aviation, it remains an important and challenging transportation sector to decarbonize. Past research has focused on small, less than 19-seat electrified aircraft propulsion concepts that could serve both passenger and air cargo markets This study extends the electrified market space into larger aircraft classes, considering if a purpose-built large hybrid electric turboprop freighter can compete in the market currently served primarily by conversion narrowbody freighters. Specifically, this paper focuses on the mid-sized cargo market with payload ranges of 40,000-50,000lbs, and an all-electric range potential up to 750 miles. The concept aircraft is based on a 4-engine turboprop configuration, with mounted wing battery packs and an aft cargo door to allow for standardized palletization. The market analysis indicates broad market coverage with 73% of the existing mid-sized cargo network within the range of 750 miles. A breakeven analysis of operating and capital costs shows potential for market competition, however, additional energy and acquisition cost savings from the concept aircraft are needed. Evidence from the breakeven analysis also points to higher rates of aircraft utilization being a critical path to lowering costs and increasing cost effectiveness.

Jacob M. Wishart↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Hybrid Electric Turboprop Commercial Freighter (HETCOF) Market Study

The dedicated air cargo and freight market has the potential to be a critical early pathway for emerging technologies in low to zero emission propulsion. This study analyzes the cargo aviation market to understand current market trends and future market viability of a mid-sized all-electric or hybrid-electric concept aircraft. While cargo aviation’s overall emissions footprint is small relative to commercial passenger aviation, it remains an important and challenging transportation sector to decarbonize. Past research has focused on small, less than 19-seat electrified aircraft propulsion concepts that could serve both passenger and air cargo markets. This study extends the electrified market space into larger aircraft classes, considering if a purpose-built large hybrid electric turboprop freighter can compete in the market currently served primarily by conversion narrowbody freighters. Specifically, this paper focuses on the mid-sized cargo market with payload ranges of 40,000-50,000lbs, and an all-electric range potential up to 750 miles. The concept aircraft is based on a 4-engine turboprop configuration, with wing mounted battery packs and an aft cargo door to allow for standardized palletization. The market analysis indicates broad market coverage with 73% of the existing mid-sized cargo network within the range of 750 miles. A breakeven analysis of operating and capital costs shows potential for market competition; however, this would require additional energy and acquisition cost savings from the concept aircraft. Evidence from the breakeven analysis also points to higher rates of aircraft utilization being a critical path to lowering costs and increasing cost effectiveness.

Hybrid Electric↗

NASA NTRS2026

Updated global and regional trends of stratospheric ozone profiles

We present updated evaluation of stratospheric ozone profile trends in the 60° S–60°N latitude range using long-term ground-based and satellite climate data records, as well as simulations by chemistry-climate models. The trends are evaluated using the LOTUS (Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere) regression model. Analyses of satellite data confirm the statistically significant positive ozone trends in the period 2000–2024 in the upper stratosphere of ~1–3% per decade, with larger trends at mid-latitudes compared to the tropics. The trends are slightly positive or close to zero in the middle stratosphere, and mostly negative, -1 to -2% per decade, in the lower stratosphere, but they are not statistically significant. The morphology and magnitude of ozone trends are similar to previous analyses (2000–2020 trends). Ozone trends in 2000–2024 predicted by chemistry-climate model simulations are in good agreement with combined satellite trends. In the upper stratosphere, models predict a slightly stronger ozone recovery than observations. In the lower stratosphere, both models and satellite observations report negative trends in the tropics, while modelled ozone trends are slightly positive at mid-latitudes. Ozone profile trends over several stations estimated from ground-based records capture the same overall vertical pattern of ozone trends as merged gridded satellite datasets. Analyses of regional ozone profile trends in 2003–2024 using merged satellite datasets confirmed the previous observations of a longitudinal structure in ozone trends in the NH mid-latitude stratosphere, with positive trends over Scandinavia and negative trends over Siberia. However, the magnitude of this dipole-like structure is reduced compared to previous analyses.

trends↗

NASA NTRS2013

Probability of US Heat Waves Affected by a Subseasonal Planetary Wave Pattern

Heat waves are thought to result from subseasonal atmospheric variability. Atmospheric phenomena driven by tropical convection, such as the Asian monsoon, have been considered potential sources of predictability on subseasonal timescales. Mid-latitude atmospheric dynamics have been considered too chaotic to allow significant prediction skill of lead times beyond the typical 10-day range of weather forecasts. Here we use a 12,000-year integration of an atmospheric general circulation model to identify a pattern of subseasonal atmospheric variability that can help improve forecast skill for heat waves in the United States. We find that heat waves tend to be preceded by 15-20 days by a pattern of anomalous atmospheric planetary waves with a wavenumber of 5. This circulation pattern can arise as a result of internal atmospheric dynamics and is not necessarily linked to tropical heating.We conclude that some mid-latitude circulation anomalies that increase the probability of heat waves are predictable beyond the typical weather forecast range.

Mid-Latitude Circulation↗

NASA NTRS2019

Estuarine Dissolved Organic Carbon Flux From Space: With Application to Chesapeake and Delaware Bays

This study uses a neural network model trained with in situ data, combined with satellite data and hydrodynamic model products, to compute the daily estuarine export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) at the mouths of Chesapeake Bay (CB) and Delaware Bay (DB) from 2007 to 2011. Both bays show large flux variability with highest fluxes in spring and lowest in fall as well as interannual flux variability (0.18 and 0.27 Tg C/year in 2008 and 2010 for CB; 0.04 and 0.09 Tg C/year in 2008 and 2011 for DB). Based on previous estimates of total organic carbon (TOCexp) exported by all Mid-Atlantic Bight estuaries (1.2 Tg C/year), the DOC export (CB + DB) of 0.3 Tg C/year estimated here corresponds to 25% of the TOCexp. Spatial and temporal covariations of velocity and DOC concentration provide contributions to the flux, with larger spatial influence. Differences in the discharge of fresh water into the bays (74 billion cu. m/year for CB and 21 billion cu. m/year for DB) and their geomorphologies are major drivers of the differences in DOC fluxes for these two systems. Terrestrial DOC inputs are similar to the export of DOC at the bay mouths at annual and longer time scales but diverge significantly at shorter time scales (days to months). Future efforts will expand to the Mid-Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Maine, and its major rivers and estuaries, in combination with coupled terrestrial-estuarine-ocean biogeochemical models that include effects of climate change, such as warming and CO2 increase.

Estuarine DOC export↗

NASA NTRS1962

Rendezvous Guidance Technology

The literature on rendezvous guidance technology is reviewed and a bibliography of about 160 documents is presented. The importance of the proper selection of the ascent trajectory and of the orbit for a manned space station or an orbiting launch complex is emphasized. The way the launch delay problem affects the selection of the ascent trajectory and the target orbit is discussed. A specific ascent trajectory and an orbit for a manned space station or an orbiting launch complex is recommended on the premise that launch delay problems will continue to outweigh most of the other orbit selection criteria. A new method for determining the velocity corrections required for mid-course guidance is proposed . The proposed methods consist of an "exact-numerical" solution of the relative equations of motion in the "Shell-coordinate system." The proposed "exact-numerical" method extends the applicability of the mid- course equations to a much greater range than that of the currently available linear methods .

Trajectory↗