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NASA NTRS2018

Remote Sensing, Uncertainty Quantification, and a Theory of Data Systems; Workshop Report

The purpose of the workshop was to invite statisticians, applied mathematicians, computer scientists, data system architects, experts in remote sensing technology, and Climate and Earth System scientists to review, discuss, and plan research on issues related to large-scale, efficient analysis of distributed data using spatial statistical methods. Our motivation in organizing this event was to catalyze interchange among experts on the fast-emerging problem of analysis of distributed data. As part of SAMSI's 2017-2018 Program on Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Climate and the Earth System, a Working Group on Remote Sensing was established to address statistical and mathematical research problems in the analysis of remote sensing data. The Working Group has five subgroups: 1) Spatial Retrieval Methodology (the so-called \Spatial-X" subgroup); 2) Spatial Analysis for Hyperspectral Data (the so-called \Spatial-Y" subgroup); 3) Emulators for Complex Forward Models; 4) Optimization for Remote Sensing Retrievals; and 5) Theory of Data Systems (ToDS). The ToDS subgroup spent the first half of this academic year formulating a framework in which to consider the joint problem of a) optimizing statistical methods for environments where data are distributed and too large to move to a central location, and b) the design of data system infrastructures within which to implement those statistical methods. To x ideas, the Workshop focused on spatial statistical methods. To date there are many new spatial statistical methods designed with massive data sets in mind, in the literature. However, very few have been implemented for remote sensing data, and none have been implemented in operational settings like those used by NASA and NOAA. A major impediment to their use in these cases is that the data are not only massive, but are stored in different physical locations. These data must be brought together in some way in order to estimate spatial covariance functions, but moving data to a central location for analysis is tedious at best and impossible at worst. Some remote data reduction is almost certainly necessary, but how much? What are the consequences for inference? The fundamental issue underlying these questions is how to navigate the trade-space between costs and uncertainty in the estimates or inferences that are ultimately produced.

Braverman, Amy↗

NASA NTRS2016

Streamlining the Design Tradespace for Earth Imaging Constellations

Science Data Processing↗

NASA NTRS2018

Impact of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Observations on ENSO Predictions from the GMAO S2S Forecast System

Sea surface salinity (SSS) observations from space allow us to investigate if improved estimates of near-surface density stratification and associated mixing can positively impact seasonal to interannual variability of tropical Pacific Ocean dynamics as well as dynamical ENSO forecasts. For the first part of the presentation, we utilize our intermediate-complexity coupled model. Baseline experiments assimilate satellite sea level (multi-satellite gridded AVISO, 2013), SST (Reynolds et al., 2004), and in situ subsurface temperature and salinity observations (GTSPP NODC, 2006). These baseline experiments are then compared with experiments that additionally assimilate Aquarius (V5.0 Lilly and Lagerloef, 2008) and SMAP (V4.0 Fore et al., 2016) SSS. Twelve-month forecasts are initialized for each month from September 2011 to September 2017. For initialization of the coupled forecast, the positive impact of SSS assimilation is brought about by surface freshening near the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool and density changes that lead to shallower mixed layer between 10S-5N. This pattern enhances air/sea interaction and amplifies the equatorial Kelvin wave signal. We find that including satellite SSS significantly improves NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly validation over most forecast lead times. We next assess how different satellite SSS products impact the validation of ENSO forecasts. SMAP V4 reduces the salty bias in the western Pacific and so is an improvement upon SMAP V2 and SMOS V2 (Boutin et al., 2017) has similar validation characteristics as a combination of Aquarius and SMAP V4. Next we shift to present results from the NASA GMAO Sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S_v2.1) production coupled model (i.e. the same model that contributes ENSO forecasts to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble Experiment). From March to June 2015, the availability of two overlapping satellite SSS instruments, Aquarius and SMAP, allows a unique opportunity to compare and contrast forecasts initialized with the benefit of these two satellite SSS observation types. We assess the impact of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) observations on dynamical ENSO forecasts for the big 2015 El Nino event. We will present distinct experiments for the overlap period that include 1) freely evolving SSS (i.e. no satellite SSS as the production system), 2) Aquarius, and 3) SMAP initialization. Our results show that using Aquarius slightly improves validation of the reanalysis (including sea level and temperature statistics). Our production system without SSS assimilation generated too warm forecasts for the 2015 El Nino from March initial conditions. Incorporating Aquarius into initialization of the coupled system leads to a deeper, more realistic MLD that acts to damp the downwelling Kelvin signal and slightly cool NINO3.4 SST. With Aquarius the forecasts better match the observed amplitude of the 2015 event. On the other hand, SMAP V2 relaxation generally degrades validation statistics. At forecast initialization, SMAP is much too salty within 10o of the equator, leading to deeper MLD east of 165W. This deeper MLD leads to over-damping of the downwelling signal (i.e. relative upwelling), in turn leading to relatively too cool ENSO forecasts.

Hackert, E.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Navigating the Deployment and Downlink Tradespace for Earth Imaging Constellations

Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSMs) are gaining momentum in their application to Earth Observation (EO) missions owing to their unique ability to increase observation sampling in spatial, spectral, angular and temporal dimensions simultaneously. DSM design includes a much larger number of variables than its monolithic counterpart, therefore, Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) has been often used for preliminary mission concept designs, to understand the trade-offs and interdependencies among the variables. MBSE models are complex because the various objectives a DSM is expected to achieve are almost always conflicting, non-linear and rarely analytical. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) is developing a pre-Phase A tool called Tradespace Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C) to initiate constellation mission design. The tool will allow users to explore the tradespace between various performance, cost and risk metrics (as a function of their science mission) and select Pareto optimal architectures that meet their requirements. This paper will describe the different types of constellations that TAT-C’s Tradespace Search Iterator is capable of enumerating (homogeneous Walker, heterogeneous Walker, precessing type, ad-hoc) and their impact on key performance metrics such as revisit statistics, time to global access and coverage. We will also discuss the ability to simulate phased deployment of the given constellations, as a function of launch availabilities and/or vehicle capability, and show the impact on performance. All performance metrics are calculated by the Data Reduction and Metric Computation module within TAT-C, which issues specific requests and processes results from the Orbit and Coverage module. Our TSI is also capable of generating tradespaces for downlinking imaging data from the constellation, based on permutations of available ground station networks - known (default) or customized (by the user). We will show the impact of changing ground station options for any given constellation, on data latency and required communication bandwidth, which in turn determines the responsiveness of the space system.

Nag, Sreeja↗

NASA NTRS2020

Reliability Analysis of Complex NASA Systems with Model-Based Engineering

The emergence of model-based engineering, with Model- Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) leading the way, is transforming design and analysis methodologies. The recognized benefits to systems development include moving from document-centric information systems and document-centric project communication to a model-centric environment in which control of design changes in the life cycles is facilitated. In addition, a “single source of truth” about the system, that is up-to-date in all respects of the design, becomes the authoritative source of data and information about the system. This promotes consistency and efficiency in regard to integration of the system elements as the design emerges and thereby may further optimize the design. Therefore Reliability Engineers (REs) supporting NASA missions must be integrated into model-based engineering to ensure the outputs of their analyses are relevant and value-needed to the design, development, and operational processes for failure risks assessment and communication.

FMEA/FMECA↗

NASA NTRS2021

The Role of Complex Ionized Absorber in the Soft X-ray Spectra of Intermediate Polars

In magnetic Cataclysmic Variables (mCVs), X-ray radiation originates from the shock heated multi-temperature plasma in the post-shock region near the white dwarf surface. These X-rays are modified by a complex distribution of absorbers in the pre-shock region. The presence of photo-ionized lines and warm absorber features in the soft X-ray spectra of these mCVs suggests that these absorbers are ionized. We developed the ionized complex absorber model zxipab, which is represented by a power-law distribution of ionized absorbers in the pre-shock ow. Using the ionized absorber model zxipab along with a cooling ow model and a reflection component, we model the broadband Chandra/HETG and NuSTAR spectra of two IPs: NY Lup and V1223 Sgr. We nd that this model describes well many of the H and He like emission lines from medium Z elements, which arises from the collisionally excited plasma. However the model fails to account for some of the He like triplets from medium Z elements, which points towards its photo-ionization origin. We do not find a compelling evidence for a blackbody component to model the soft excess seen in the residuals of the Chandra/HETG spectra, which could be due to the uncertainties in estimation of the interstellar absorption of these sources using Chandra/HETG data and/or excess fluxes seen in some photo-ionized emission lines which are not accounted by the cooling ow model. We describe the implications of this model with respect to the geometry of the pre-shock region in these two IPs

Nazma Islam Syeda↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Fluid-Structure Interaction Simulations of the ASPIRE SR01 Supersonic Parachute

High-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations have so far only played exploratory and supporting roles in the study and qualification of parachutes for planetary entry. The last few years have seen the maturation of coupled computational methods that are capable of modeling the complex fluid-structure interactions between a parachute canopy and the supersonic flow in the wake of an entry vehicle in flight conditions. One of the primary goals of these methods is to predict the peak opening load experienced by the parachute during inflation. The Launch, Ascent, and Vehicle Aerodynamics (LAVA)team is developing efficient, high-fidelity numerical methods to perform such challenging fluid-structure interaction simulations. A loose coupling approach is used to advance the solutions of a Cartesian ghost cell immersed boundary method CFD solver and a finite element computational structural dynamics (CSD) solver in space and time. The coupled solver is employed to simulate the ASPIRE SR01 flight test, where a build-to-print version of the Mars Science Laboratory parachute was inflated in supersonic conditions in the upper terrestrial atmosphere. The simulations conducted in the current paper predict a peak opening load that is within 10% of that from the flight test. Grid convergence with respect to the volume and structural domains is demonstrated, and less than 1% variation in the peak opening load is predicted between all grid resolutions.

ARMD↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of a Trajectory-Centric CFD-RBD Framework for Advanced Multidisciplinary/Multiphysics Simulation

The desire to model increasingly complex unsteady flow phenomena drives coupling of physics-based disciplinary analysis tools, such as coupled aerodynamics-rigid body dynamics simulations. This paper documents the creation of a framework linking the six-degree-of-freedom trajectory propagator POST2 with NASA’s FUN3D computational fluid dynamics flow solver. Cross-code verification between the framework and a CFD-centric 6DOF code is performed using the Army-Navy Finner projectile experiencing unsteady accelerating flow. Free-flight simulations of an entry vehicle ballistic range test are validated against physical and computational experiments.

Zachary J Ernst↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of a Trajectory-Centric CFD-RBD Framework for Advanced Multidisciplinary/Multiphysics Simulation

Zachary J Ernst↗

NASA NTRS2021

TLife-LSTM: Forecasting Future COVID-19 Progression with Topological Signatures of Atmospheric Conditions

Understanding the impact of atmospheric conditions on SARS-CoV2 is critical to model COVID-19 dynamics and sheds a light on the future spread around the world. Furthermore, geographic distri- butions of expected clinical severity of COVID-19 may be closely linked to prior history of respiratory diseases and changes in humidity, tem- perature, and air quality. In this context, we postulate that by tracking topological features of atmospheric conditions over time, we can provide a quanti?able structural distribution of atmospheric changes that are likely to be related to COVID-19 dynamics. As such, we apply the machinery of persistence homology on time series of graphs to extract topological signatures and to follow geographical changes in relative humidity and temperature. We develop an integrative machine learning framework named Topological Lifespan LSTM (TLife-LSTM) and test its predictive capabilities on forecasting the dynamics of SARS-CoV2 cases. We validate our framework using the number of con?rmed cases and hospitalization rates recorded in the states of Washington and California in the USA. Our results demonstrate the predictive potential of TLife-LSTM in forecasting the dynamics of COVID-19 and modeling its complex spatio-temporal spread dynamics.

Gel, Yulia R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

System Safety Analysis of Complex NASA Systems with Model-Based Engineering

The emergence of model-based engineering is transforming design and analysis methodologies [5]. A recognized benefit of model-based engineering is the existence of a “single source of truth” about the system that becomes the authoritative source of data and information for designers, analysts, and developers. This promotes consistency and efficiency as the design emerges and can be used to further optimize the design. Integrating System Safety Engineers to the “single source of truth” will ensure that the outputs of their assessments and analyses are relevant to the design as it evolves. Use of an integrated system model enables near immediate evaluation of a design change as well as development of operational processes for risk assessment and communication. Such models can enable efficient and timely analysis of system hazards (e.g., hazard fault tree analysis and procedure simulations) and produce complete, accurate, and more consistent products (e.g., hazard reports and safety requirement evaluations). Therefore, an agency-sponsored team at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) recently completed a System Safety Study of modeling and testing capabilities as part of a Model-Based Safety and Mission Assurance Initiative (MBSMAI). Using an existing model developed for reliability analyses [1], GSFC modeling and system safety experts performed system safety analysis/modeling and produced safety products. The team evaluated model-based feasibility to support System Safety Engineering, developed safety analysis modeling processes, and identified tool capability advancement/development needs. These study results indicate model-based engineering is valid and useable for System

NASA↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Runtime Monitoring for Unmanned Aerospace Systems with Neural Network Components

AI components (e.g., Deep Neural Networks) are increasingly used in unmanned Aerospace systems for safety-relevant applications. Rigorous Verification and Validation methods for such components are still in their infancy and thus, monitoring of the AI's behavior during runtime is essential. In this paper, we will present a runtime-monitoring architecture, which combines the advanced statistical analysis framework SYSAI (System Analysis using Statistical AI) with temporal and probabilistic runtime monitoring carried out by R2U2 (Realizable, Responsive, and Unobtrusive Unit). Learned statistical models of complex systems with AI components are produced by the SYSAI framework and provide detailed information to enable the R2U2 runtime monitor to efficiently perform advanced safety and performance checks in nominal and off-nominal conditions. We will present initial results of our tool set and architecture on a case study, a DNN-based autonomous centerline tracking system (ACT).

Yuning He↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Characterizing Porous and Nonporous Phenolic Resins from Molecular Dynamics Simulations

Phenolic resins are an important component of many ablative heat shield materials, which protect spacecrafts from the extreme temperatures reached during atmospheric entry. Examples include the high-density Heritage Carbon Phenolic (HCP) used in the Pioneer-Venus and Galileo missions, as well as the low-density Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) used in the Mars Science Laboratory and Mars 2020 missions. Additionally, recent developments within NASA have produced the mid-density Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) and its derivative 3D Woven Mid-Density Carbon Phenolic (3MDCP). Unlike the nonporous phenolic in HCP, PICA and HEEET/3MDCP are fabricated by infusing preforms with diluted phenolic formulations to obtain a lower density porous matrix. Despite the importance of the phenolic phase to the material response during entry, the variation in properties of porous and nonporous phenolic is not well understood. Here, we present an investigation of porous and nonporous phenolic resins using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Resin cure is mimicked in the simulations through the inclusion of representative reaction templates to generate accurate models of the complex crosslinked structures. To create porous models, explicit solvent molecules are included during the cure simulations. We observe nanoscale separation of the phenolic and solvent phases, which results in significant differences in the final structures of porous and nonporous models. In addition to a quantitative assessment of the network structure and porosity, we elucidate the effects of the phenolic formulation on the final material properties. These results are compared with experimental data as appropriate.

phenolic↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Open Science at the Onset of JWST

The characterization of a diverse set of atmospheres, ranging from brown dwarfs to hot gas giants to small temperate rocky worlds will be part of the legacy of JWST and future NASA missions. These technological innovations will enable a plethora of discoveries, unveiling a variety of new chemical and physical regimes that could even point to the first detection of life beyond Earth. However, our ability to fully interpret these results will hinge on how well we can link observations to numerous complex theoretical models that describe, for example, the chemistry and climate. An immediate demonstration of this was executed in the analysis of JWST’s very first exoplanet spectrum. An open collaboration of more than 300 students, postdocs, faculty, and researchers worldwide worked together to analyze the exquisite dataset. The result was the first identification of carbon dioxide in a planet beyond our own Solar System. I will discuss how NASA’s open science guiding principles are centered in our Early Release Science team, supporting an inclusive, transparent, and collaborative scientific process. And ultimately, I will showcase the science that was born from this open process.

Natasha Batalha↗

NASA NTRS2022

Photochemical Evolution of the 2013 California Rim Fire: Synergistic Impacts of Reactive Hydrocarbons and Enhanced Oxidants

Large wildfires markedly alter regional atmospheric composition, but chemical complexity challenges model predictions of downwind impacts. Here, we elucidate key facets of gas-phase photochemistry and assess novel chemical processes via a case study of the 2013 California Rim Fire plume. Airborne in situ observations, acquired during the NASA Studies of Emissions, Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) mission, illustrate the evolution of volatile organic compounds (VOC), oxidants, and reactive nitrogen over 12 hours of atmospheric aging. Measurements show rapid formation of ozone and peroxyacyl nitrates (PNs), sustained peroxide production, and prolonged enhancements in oxygenated VOC and nitrogen oxides (NOX). Measurements and Lagrangian trajectories constrain a 0-D puff model that approximates plume photochemical history and provides a framework for evaluating key processes. Simulations examine the effects of 1) previously-unmeasured reactive VOC identified in recent laboratory studies, and 2) emissions and secondary production of nitrous acid (HONO). Inclusion of estimated unmeasured VOC leads to a 250% increase in OH reactivity and a 70% increase in radical production via oxygenated VOC photolysis. HONO amplifies radical cycling and serves as a downwind NOX source, although two different HONO production mechanisms (particulate nitrate photolysis and heterogeneous NO2 conversion) exhibit markedly different effects on ozone, NOX, and PNs. Analysis of radical initiation rates suggests that oxygenated VOC photolysis is a major radical source, exceeding HONO photolysis when averaged over the first 2 hours of aging. Ozone production chemistry transitions from VOC-sensitive to NOX-sensitive within the first hour of plume aging, with both peroxide and organic nitrate formation contributing significantly to radical termination. To simulate smoke plume chemistry accurately, models should simultaneously account for the full reactive VOC pool and all relevant oxidant sources.

SEAC4RS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

System Safety Analysis of Complex NASA Systems with Model-Based Engineering (REV B)

The emergence of model-based engineering is transforming design and analysis methodologies. A recognized benefit of model-based engineering is the existence of a “single source of truth” about the system that becomes the authoritative source of data and information for designers, analysts, and developers. This promotes consistency and efficiency as the design emerges and can be used to further optimize the design. Integrating System Safety Engineers to the “single source of truth” will ensure that the outputs of their assessments and analyses are relevant to the design as it evolves. Use of an integrated system model enables near immediate evaluation of a design change as well as development of operational processes for risk assessment and communication. Such models can enable efficient and timely analysis of system hazards (e.g., hazard fault tree analysis and procedure simulations) and produce complete, accurate, and more consistent products (e.g., hazard reports and safety requirement evaluations). Therefore, an agency-sponsored team at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) recently completed a System Safety Study of modeling and testing capabilities as part of a Model-Based Safety and Mission Assurance Initiative (MBSMAI). Using an existing model developed for reliability analyses, GSFC modeling and system safety experts performed system safety analysis/modeling and produced safety products. The team evaluated model-based feasibility to support System Safety Engineering, developed safety analysis modeling processes, and identified tool capability advancement/development needs. These study results indicate model-based engineering is valid and useable for System Safety Engineering for NASA if adequate modeling processes and environment are established.

NASA↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Formalized Reasoning of Operational Volumes for Wildland Fire Fighting

This work is focused on the formalized reasoning of operational volumes as it relates to the current and future technologies developed by NASA to aid in wildfire fighting operations. One such technology is the unmanned aircraft system pilot kit (UASP-kit) developed by the Scalable Traffic Management for Emergency Response Operations (STEReO) project at NASA, which is used to increase situation awareness for a ground operator in the field. The UASP-kit utilizes operational volumes which represent mission areas and alerting volumes, to alert when another aircraft is within one of these volumes from received ADS-B data. This work is focused on developing a rigorous foundation for the concept of operational volumes for modeling and prototyping operations in such a tool as the UASP-kit. This includes establishing a class of algorithms to detect when an object is in an operational volume, and when an operational volume is intersecting or contained within another. Additionally, this work is focused on providing rigorous proof in an interactive theorem prover that the algorithms work as intended. Scenarios are presented that model current UASP-kit operations and extend past the current capabilities of the technology to modeling more complex scenarios such as mission planning.

Operational Volumes↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Formalized Reasoning of Operational Volumes for Wildland Fire Fighting

This work is focused on the formalized reasoning of operational volumes as it relates to the current and future technologies developed by NASA to aid in wildland firefighting operations. One such technology is the Unmanned Aircraft System Pilot Kit (UASP-kit) developed by the Scalable Traffic Management for Emergency Response Operations (STEReO) project at NASA, which is used to increase situational awareness for a ground operator in the field. The UASP-kit utilizes operational volumes to represent mission areas and alerting volumes; these volumes, in combinations with ADS-B data, can then be used to alert the ground operator when another aircraft has entered one of these areas. This work presents a rigorous foundation for the concept of operational volumes for modeling and prototyping operations in such a tool as the UASP-kit. This includes establishing a class of algorithms to detect when an object is in an operational volume, and when one operational volume intersects or is contained in another. Additionally, this work provides rigorous proof that the algorithms work as intended. Scenarios are presented that model current UASP-kit operations and extend past the current capabilities of the technology to modeling more complex scenarios such as mission planning.

Operational Volumes↗