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At least 667 records · Page 37

Effects of model deficiencies on parameter estimation

Reliable structural dynamic models will be required as a basis for deriving the reduced-order plant models used in control systems for large space structures. Ground vibration testing and model verification will play an important role in the development of these models; however, fundamental differences between the space environment and earth environment, as well as variations in structural properties due to as-built conditions, will make on-orbit identification essential. The efficiency, and perhaps even the success, of on-orbit identification will depend on having a valid model of the structure. It is envisioned that the identification process will primarily involve parametric methods. Given a correct model, a variety of estimation algorithms may be used to estimate parameter values. This paper explores the effects of modeling errors and model deficiencies on parameter estimation by reviewing previous case histories. The effects depend at least to some extent on the estimation algorithm being used. Bayesian estimation was used in the case histories presented here. It is therefore conceivable that the behavior of an estimation algorithm might be useful in detecting and possibly even diagnosing deficiencies. In practice, the task is complicated by the presence of systematic errors in experimental procedures and data processing and in the use of the estimation procedures themselves.

Hasselman, T. K.↗

On-Line Mu Method for Robust Flutter Prediction in Expanding a Safe Flight Envelope for an Aircraft Model Under Flight Test

A structured singular value (mu) analysis method of computing flutter margins has robust stability of a linear aeroelastic model with uncertainty operators (Delta). Flight data is used to update the uncertainty operators to accurately account for errors in the computed model and the observed range of aircraft dynamics of the aircraft under test caused by time-varying aircraft parameters, nonlinearities, and flight anomalies, such as test nonrepeatability. This mu-based approach computes predict flutter margins that are worst case with respect to the modeling uncertainty for use in determining when the aircraft is approaching a flutter condition and defining an expanded safe flight envelope for the aircraft that is accepted with more confidence than traditional methods that do not update the analysis algorithm with flight data by introducing mu as a flutter margin parameter that presents several advantages over tracking damping trends as a measure of a tendency to instability from available flight data.

Lind, Richard C.↗

An unstructured-mesh finite-volume MPDATA for compressible atmospheric dynamics

An advancement of the unstructured-mesh finite-volume MPDATA (Multidimensional Positive Definite Advection Transport Algorithm) is presented that formulates the error-compensative pseudo-velocity of the scheme to rely only on face-normal advective fluxes to the dual cells, in contrast to the full vector employed in previous implementations. This is essentially achieved by expressing the temporal truncation error underlying the pseudo-velocity in a form consistent with the flux-divergence of the governing conservation law. The development is especially important for integrating fluid dynamics equations on non-rectilinear meshes whenever face-normal advective mass fluxes are employed for transport compatible with mass continuity—the latter being essential for flux-form schemes. In particular, the proposed formulation enables large-time-step semi-implicit finite-volume integration of the compressible Euler equations using MPDATA on arbitrary hybrid computational meshes. Furthermore, it facilitates multiple error-compensative iterations of the finite-volume MPDATA and improved overall accuracy. The advancement combines straightforwardly with earlier developments, such as the nonoscillatory option, the infinite-gauge variant, and moving curvilinear meshes. A comprehensive description of the scheme is provided for a hybrid horizontally-unstructured vertically-structured computational mesh for efficient global atmospheric flow modelling. The proposed finite-volume MPDATA is verified using selected 3D global atmospheric benchmark simulations, representative of hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic flow regimes. Besides the added capabilities, the scheme retains fully the efficacy of established finite-volume MPDATA formulations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The effect of spatial and temporal wet-troposphere fluctuations on connected element interferometry

Numerical integrations of the structure function of tropospheric inhomogeneities have been performed to assess the impact of water vapor fluctuations on connected element interferometry (CEI). The expectation value of the RMS troposphere error for a differential spacecraft-quasar observation is derived by integrating the spatial refractivity structure function along raypaths to both the spacecraft and quasar from two spatially separated sites. Correlations between the tropospheric conditions at the two sites, which can become significant for short baseline observations, are fully accounted for in this calculation. Temporal effects are treated by assuming a frozen-flow model in which a fixed spatial distribution blows over both sites. Two nominal observation scenarios are considered, along with variations to study the dependence of the resultant differential troposphere errors on baseline length, observation time, source separation angle, and elevation. Consecutive differential observations are found to be almost completely uncorrelated, implying that averaging many repeated differential observations can quickly reduce the troposphere error.

Edwards, C. D.↗

Systematic Parameterization of Lignin for the CHARMM Force Field

Lignin is an abundant aromatic biopolymer within plant cell walls formed through radical coupling chemistry, whose composition and topology can vary greatly depending on the biomass source. Computational modeling provides a complementary approach to traditional experimental techniques to probe lignin interactions, lignin structure, and lignin material properties. However, current modeling approaches are limited based on the subset of lignin chemistries covered by existing lignin force fields. To fill the gap, we developed a comprehensive lignin force field that accounts for more lignin-lignin and lignin-carbohydrate interlinkages than existing lignin force fields, and also greatly expands the lignin monomer chemistries that can be modeled beyond simple alcohols and into the rich mixture of natural lignin varieties. The development of this force field utilizes recent developments in parameterization methodology, and synthesizes them into a workflow that combines target data from multiple molecules simultaneously into a single consistent and comprehensive parameter set. The parameter set represents a significant improvement to alternatives for atomic modeling of diverse lignin topologies, more accurately reproducing experimental observables while also significantly reducing the error relative to quantum calculations. The improved energetics, as well as the rigid adherence to CHARMM parameterization philosophy, enables simulation of lignin within its biological context with greater accuracy than was previously possible. The lignin force field presented here is therefore a crucial first step towards modeling lignin structure across a broad range of environments, including within plant cell walls where lignin is complexed with carbohydrates and deconstructed by bacterial or fungal enzymes, or as it exists within industrial solvent mixtures. Future simulations enabled by this updated lignin force field will thus lead to better chemical and structural understanding of lignin, providing new insight into its role in biomass recalcitrance or probing the potential for lignin to be used within industrial processes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Trotter Errors from Dynamical Structural Instabilities of Floquet Maps in Quantum Simulation

We study the behavior of errors in the quantum simulation of spin systems with long-range multibody interactions resulting from the Trotter-Suzuki decomposition of the time-evolution operator. We identify a regime where the Floquet operator underlying the Trotter decomposition undergoes sharp changes even for small variations in the simulation step size. This results in a time evolution operator that is very different from the dynamics generated by the targeted Hamiltonian, which leads to a proliferation of errors in the quantum simulation. These regions of sharp change in the Floquet operator, referred to as structural instability regions, appear typically at intermediate Trotter step sizes and in the weakly interacting regime, and are thus complementary to recently revealed quantum chaotic regimes of the Trotterized evolution [L. M. Sieberer et al. npj Quantum Inf. 5, 78 (2019); M. Heyl, P. Hauke, and P. Zoller, Sci. Adv. 5, eaau8342 (2019)]. We characterize these structural instability regimes in p-spin models, transverse-field Ising models with all-to-all p-body interactions, and analytically predict their occurrence based on unitary perturbation theory. We further show that the effective Hamiltonian associated with the Trotter decomposition of the unitary time-evolution operator, when the Trotter step size is chosen to be in the structural instability region, is very different from the target Hamiltonian, which explains the large errors that can occur in the simulation in the regions of instability. These results have implications for the reliability of near-term gate-based quantum simulators, and reveal an important interplay between errors and the physical properties of the system being simulated.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Adaptive wavelet compression of large additive manufacturing experimental and simulation datasets

New manufacturing technologies such as additive manufacturing require research and development to minimize the uncertainties in the produced parts. The research involves experimental measurements and large simulations, which result in huge quantities of data to store and analyze. We address this challenge by alleviating the data storage requirements using lossy data compression. We select wavelet bases as the mathematical tool for compression. Unlike images, additive manufacturing data is often represented on irregular geometries and unstructured meshes. Thus, we use Alpert tree-wavelets as bases for our data compression method. We first analyze different basis functions for the wavelets and find the one that results in maximal compression and miminal error in the reconstructed data. We then devise a new adaptive thresholding method that is data-agnostic and allows a priori estimation of the reconstruction error. Finally, we propose metrics to quantify the global and local errors in the reconstructed data. One of the error metrics addresses the preservation of physical constraints in reconstructed data fields, such as divergence-free stress field in structural simulations. While our compression and decompression method is general, we apply it to both experimental and computational data obtained from measurements and thermal/structural modeling of the sintering of a hollow cylinder from metal powders using a Laser Engineered Net Shape process. The results show that monomials achieve optimal compression performance when used as wavelet bases. The new thresholding method results in compression ratios that are two to seven times larger than the ones obtained with commonly used thresholds. Overall, adaptive Alpert tree-wavelets can achieve compression ratios between one and three orders of magnitude depending on the features in the data that are required to preserve. Furthermore, these results show that Alpert tree-wavelet compression is a viable and promising technique to reduce the size of large data structures found in both experiments and simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Structural coherence model for predicting molten salt thermal conductivity informed by the pair distribution function

To enable thermal behavior prediction and design optimization of molten salt reactors, thermal conductivity of molten salts must be characterized in terms of salt composition and temperature. Current theoretical models fail to provide consistent approximations for all halide mixtures, particularly actinide-bearing melts. This study aims to link the short-range order structure of molten salts to the mean free path of energy carriers through a simple structural coherence model informed by the partial pair distribution function. The proposed method is used to predict the thermal conductivity of 33 alkali and alkaline earth halide salts. Predictions approximate experimental measurements with a mean absolute error of 15.7% for dissociating, complexing, and actinide salts, including unary LiCl, NaCl, and MgCl 2 as well as mixtures LiF–NaF–KF (FLiNaK), LiF–BeF 2 (FLiBe), and NaCl–UCl 3 . The work provides evidence for the validity of energy carrier descriptions of molecular-level heat transfer in molten salts, with implications for improved theories of liquid energy transport in general.

Actinide mixtures↗

Predictions of the structure of turbulent, particle-laden, round jets

Models of gas and particle motion in turbulent, particle-laden, round jets were evaluated using existing measurements of flow structure. Three models were considered: (1) a locally homogeneous flow model, where velocities and turbulent mixing properties of both phases were assumed to be equal; (2) a deterministic separated flow model, where interphase slip was considered but effects of turbulent dispersion were ignored; and (3) a stochastic separated flow model where effects of interphase slip and turbulent dispersion were considered using random sampling techniques. In all three cases, mean and turbulent properties of the continuous phase were found with a well-calibrated k-epsilon model. The locally homogeneous flow and deterministic separated flow models over- and underestimated particle spread and flow development rates, respectively. The stochastic separated flow model, however, yielded satisfactory predictions of flow structure - except at high particle loadings. Uncertainties in initial conditions for the measurements and possible effects of turbulence modulation by the particles are proposed as the reason for these errors.

Shuen, J.-S.↗

NICMOS Spectroscopy of HD 189733b

Spectral features corresponding to methane and water opacity were reported based on transmission spectroscopy of HD 189733b with Hubble/NICMOS. Recently, these data, and a similar data set for XO-1b, have been reexamined in Gibson et al. 2010, who claim they cannot reliably reproduce prior results. We examine the methods used by the Gibson team and identify two specific issues that could act to increase the formal uncertainties and to create instability in the minimization process. This would also be consistent with the GPA10 finding that they could not identify a way to select among the several instrument models they constructed. In the case of XO-1b, the Gibson team significantly changed the way in which the instrument model is defined (both with respect to the three approaches they used for HD 189733b, and the approach used by previous authors); this change, which omits the effect of the spectrum position on the detector, makes direct intercomparison of results difficult. In the experience of our group, the position of the spectrum on the detector is an important element of the instrument model because of the significant residual structure in the NICMOS spectral flat field. The approach of changing instrument models significantly complicates understanding the data reduction process and interpreting the results. Our team favors establishing a consistent method of handling NICMOS instrument systematic errors and applying it uniformly to data sets.

infrared↗

Modeling and control of beam-like structures

The most popular finite element codes are based upon appealing theories of convergence of modal frequencies. For example, the popularity of cubic elements for beam-like structures is due to the rapid convergence of modal frequencies and stiffness properties. However, for those problems in which the primary consideration is the accuracy of response of the structure at specified locations it is more important to obtain accuracy in the modal costs than in the modal frequencies. The modal cost represents the contribution of a mode in the norm of the response vector. This paper provides a complete modal cost analysis for beam-like continua. Upper bounds are developed for mode truncation errors in the model reduction process and modal cost analysis dictates which modes to retain in order to reduce the model for control design purposes.

Hu, A.↗

Vector-model-supported approach in prostate plan optimization

Lengthy time consumed in traditional manual plan optimization can limit the use of step-and-shoot intensity-modulated radiotherapy/volumetric-modulated radiotherapy (S&S IMRT/VMAT). A vector model base, retrieving similar radiotherapy cases, was developed with respect to the structural and physiologic features extracted from the Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine (DICOM) files. Planning parameters were retrieved from the selected similar reference case and applied to the test case to bypass the gradual adjustment of planning parameters. Therefore, the planning time spent on the traditional trial-and-error manual optimization approach in the beginning of optimization could be reduced. Each S&S IMRT/VMAT prostate reference database comprised 100 previously treated cases. Prostate cases were replanned with both traditional optimization and vector-model-supported optimization based on the oncologists' clinical dose prescriptions. A total of 360 plans, which consisted of 30 cases of S&S IMRT, 30 cases of 1-arc VMAT, and 30 cases of 2-arc VMAT plans including first optimization and final optimization with/without vector-model-supported optimization, were compared using the 2-sided t-test and paired Wilcoxon signed rank test, with a significance level of 0.05 and a false discovery rate of less than 0.05. For S&S IMRT, 1-arc VMAT, and 2-arc VMAT prostate plans, there was a significant reduction in the planning time and iteration with vector-model-supported optimization by almost 50%. When the first optimization plans were compared, 2-arc VMAT prostate plans had better plan quality than 1-arc VMAT plans. The volume receiving 35 Gy in the femoral head for 2-arc VMAT plans was reduced with the vector-model-supported optimization compared with the traditional manual optimization approach. Otherwise, the quality of plans from both approaches was comparable. Vector-model-supported optimization was shown to offer much shortened planning time and iteration number without compromising the plan quality.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

A Systems Modeling Approach for Risk Management of Command File Errors

The main cause of commanding errors is often (but not always) due to procedures. Either lack of maturity in the processes, incompleteness of requirements or lack of compliance to these procedures. Other causes of commanding errors include lack of understanding of system states, inadequate communication, and making hasty changes in standard procedures in response to an unexpected event. In general, it's important to look at the big picture prior to making corrective actions. In the case of errors traced back to procedures, considering the reliability of the process as a metric during its' design may help to reduce risk. This metric is obtained by using data from Nuclear Industry regarding human reliability. A structured method for the collection of anomaly data will help the operator think systematically about the anomaly and facilitate risk management. Formal models can be used for risk based design and risk management. A generic set of models can be customized for a broad range of missions.

probabilistic risk↗

Quantification of Error Associated with Using Misaligned Meshes in Continuum Damage Mechanics Material Models for Matrix Crack Growth Predictions in Composites

The ability of a material model to capture in-plane matrix mode I and mode II crack growth is an essential component for modeling ply level damage evolution in composite structures. Previous studies using a continuum damage mechanics (CDM) approach have shown success in satisfying benchmark solutions for mode I and II crack growth. However, success was shown using a fiber-aligned meshing strategy, which encourages matrix cracks to propagate in a single band of elements, along the fiber direction. Generating a fiber-aligned mesh becomes a highly involved process for laminates including off-axis (non 0° or 90°) plies. The objective of this study is to quantify the effect of non-fiber aligned mesh discretization on predictions of in-plane matrix crack propagation. The approach taken incrementally varies the mesh orientation angle relative to the fiber orientation; more specifically, misaligned meshes are used to quantify the effect of element angle orientation relative to the initial crack orientation on the energy released during matrix crack propagation simulations using a CDM method. CDM solutions obtained with the misaligned meshes are evaluated against known benchmarks for mode I and II matrix crack growth. The CDM solutions reveal a near-polynomial trend of increased predicted failure stress with increased mesh misalignment angle; hence implying a potential relationship between element orientation angle and apparent fracture toughness.

Justusson, Brian↗

RELAP5-3D validation studies based on the High Temperature Test facility

In the spring and summer of 2019, experiments were conducted at the High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) that form the basis of an upcoming high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) thermal hydraulics (T/H) benchmark. HTTF is an integral effects test facility for HTGR T/H modeling validation. This paper presents RELAP5-3D models of two of those experiments: PG-27, a pressurized conduction cooldown (PCC); and PG-29, a depressurized conduction cooldown (DCC). These models used the RELAP5-3D model of HTTF originally developed by Paul Bayless as a starting point. The sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification code, RAVEN was used to perform calibration studies for the steady-state portion of PG-27. Here we developed four PG-27 calibrations based on steady-state conditions. These calibrations all used an effective thermal conductivity equal to 36 % of the measured thermal conductivity, but they differed with respect to the frictional pressure drops and radial conduction models. These models all captured the trends in steady-state temperature distributions and transient temperature behavior well. All four calibrations show room for improvement in predicting the transient temperature rise. The smallest error in temperature rise during the transient was a 21 % underprediction, and the largest was a 48 % underprediction. The errors in transient temperature rise are largely a result of a mismatch in power density between the RELAP5-3D model and the experiment due to the location of active heater rods along the boundary between heat structures in the model. The best of these calibrations was applied to PG-29 to model the DCC. Once again, temperatures during the transient were underpredicted but trends in temperature were captured. The RELAP5-3D model captured trends in the data but could not reproduce measured temperatures exactly. This result is not attributed to deficiencies in the experimental data or to RELAP5–3D itself. Rather, this result likely arises due to the some of the assumptions and decisions made when the RELAP5-3D model was first developed, prior to the execution of HTTF experiments. An agreement in prediction of temperature trends but challenges reproducing HTTF temperatures within measurement uncertainty is consistent with previous analyses of HTTF in the literature. Future RELAP5-3D validation activities centered around HTTF may be able to provide greater insight into the code’s capabilities for HTGR modeling with a more finely nodalized model.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Using PAFEC as a preprocessor for COSMIC/NASTRAN

Programs for Automatic Finite Element Calculations (PAFEC) is a general purpose, three dimensional linear and nonlinear finite element program (ref. 1). PAFEC's features include free format input utilizing engineering keywords, powerful mesh generating facilities, sophisticated data base management procedures, and extensive data validation checks. Presented here is a description of a software interface that permits PAFEC to be used as a preprocessor for COSMIC/NASTRAN. This user friendly software, called PAFCOS, frees the stress analyst from the laborious and error prone procedure of creating and debugging a rigid format COSMIC/NASTRAN bulk data deck. By interactively creating and debugging a finite element model with PAFEC, thus taking full advantage of the free format engineering keyword oriented data structure of PAFEC, the amount of time spent during model generation can be drastically reduced. The PAFCOS software will automatically convert a PAFEC data structure into a COSMIC/NASTRAN bulk data deck. The capabilities and limitations of the PAFCOS software are fully discussed in the following report.

Gray, W. H.↗

Full Gradient Solution to Adaptive Hybrid Control

This paper focuses on the adaptation mechanisms in adaptive hybrid controllers. Most adaptive hybrid controllers update two filters individually according to the filtered-reference least mean squares (FxLMS) algorithm. Because this algorithm was derived for feedforward control, it does not take into account the presence of a feedback loop in the gradient calculation. This paper provides a derivation of the proper weight vector gradient for hybrid (or feedback) controllers that takes into account the presence of feedback. In this formulation, a single weight vector is updated rather than two individually. An internal model structure is assumed for the feedback part of the controller. The full gradient is equivalent to that used in the standard FxLMS algorithm with the addition of a recursive term that is a function of the modeling error. Some simulations are provided to highlight the advantages of using the full gradient in the weight vector update rather than the approximation.

Bean, Jacob↗

Full Gradient Solution to Adaptive Hybrid Control

This paper focuses on the adaptation mechanisms in adaptive hybrid controllers. Most adaptive hybrid controllers update two filters individually according to the filtered reference least mean squares (FxLMS) algorithm. Because this algorithm was derived for feedforward control, it does not take into account the presence of a feedback loop in the gradient calculation. This paper provides a derivation of the proper weight vector gradient for hybrid (or feedback) controllers that takes into account the presence of feedback. In this formulation, a single weight vector is updated rather than two individually. An internal model structure is assumed for the feedback part of the controller. The full gradient is equivalent to that used in the standard FxLMS algorithm with the addition of a recursive term that is a function of the modeling error. Some simulations are provided to highlight the advantages of using the full gradient in the weight vector update rather than the approximation.

Bean, Jacob↗