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DOE OSTI2022

Aboveground biomass density models for NASA’s Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) lidar mission

NASA's Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) is collecting spaceborne full waveform lidar data with a primary science goal of producing accurate estimates of forest aboveground biomass density (AGBD). This paper presents the development of the models used to create GEDI's footprint-level (~25 m) AGBD (GEDI04_A) product, including a description of the datasets used and the procedure for final model selection. The data used to fit our models are from a compilation of globally distributed spatially and temporally coincident field and airborne lidar datasets, whereby we simulated GEDI-like waveforms from airborne lidar to build a calibration database. We used this database to expand the geographic extent of past waveform lidar studies, and divided the globe into four broad strata by Plant Functional Type (PFT) and six geographic regions. GEDI's waveform-to-biomass models take the form of parametric Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models with simulated Relative Height (RH) metrics as predictor variables. From an exhaustive set of candidate models, we selected the best input predictor variables, and data transformations for each geographic stratum in the GEDI domain to produce a set of comprehensive predictive footprint-level models. We found that model selection frequently favored combinations of RH metrics at the 98th, 90th, 50th, and 10th height above ground-level percentiles (RH98, RH90, RH50, and RH10, respectively), but that inclusion of lower RH metrics (e.g. RH10) did not markedly improve model performance. Second, forced inclusion of RH98 in all models was important and did not degrade model performance, and the best performing models were parsimonious, typically having only 1-3 predictors. Third, stratification by geographic domain (PFT, geographic region) improved model performance in comparison to global models without stratification. Fourth, for the vast majority of strata, the best performing models were fit using square root transformation of field AGBD and/or height metrics. There was considerable variability in model performance across geographic strata, and areas with sparse training data and/or high AGBD values had the poorest performance. These models are used to produce global predictions of AGBD, but will be improved in the future as more and better training data become available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Infinite Family of Integrable Sigma Models Using Auxiliary Fields

We introduce a class of 2D sigma models which are parametrized by a function of one variable. In addition to the physical field g , these models include an auxiliary field v α which mediates interactions in a prescribed way. We prove that every theory in this family is classically integrable, in that it possesses an infinite set of conserved charges in involution, which can be constructed from a Lax representation for the equations of motion. This class includes the principal chiral model (PCM) and all deformations of the PCM by functions of the energy-momentum tensor. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Physics↗

NASA NTRS2004

Advanced Manufacturing Techniques Demonstrated for Fabricating Developmental Hardware

NASA Glenn Research Center's Engineering Development Division has been working in support of innovative gas turbine engine systems under development by Glenn's Combustion Branch. These one-of-a-kind components require operation under extreme conditions. High-temperature ceramics were chosen for fabrication was because of the hostile operating environment. During the designing process, it became apparent that traditional machining techniques would not be adequate to produce the small, intricate features for the conceptual design, which was to be produced by stacking over a dozen thin layers with many small features that would then be aligned and bonded together into a one-piece unit. Instead of using traditional machining, we produced computer models in Pro/ENGINEER (Parametric Technology Corporation (PTC), Needham, MA) to the specifications of the research engineer. The computer models were exported in stereolithography standard (STL) format and used to produce full-size rapid prototype polymer models. These semi-opaque plastic models were used for visualization and design verification. The computer models also were exported in International Graphics Exchange Specification (IGES) format and sent to Glenn's Thermal/Fluids Design & Analysis Branch and Applied Structural Mechanics Branch for profiling heat transfer and mechanical strength analysis.

Redding, Chip↗

NASA NTRS2012

An Analysis Technique/Automated Tool for Comparing and Tracking Analysis Modes of Different Finite Element Models

An analysis technique was developed to compare and track mode shapes for different Finite Element Models. The technique may be applied to a variety of structural dynamics analyses, including model reduction validation (comparing unreduced and reduced models), mode tracking for various parametric analyses (e.g., launch vehicle model dispersion analysis to identify sensitivities to modal gain for Guidance, Navigation, and Control), comparing models of different mesh fidelity (e.g., a coarse model for a preliminary analysis compared to a higher-fidelity model for a detailed analysis) and mode tracking for a structure with properties that change over time (e.g., a launch vehicle from liftoff through end-of-burn, with propellant being expended during the flight). Mode shapes for different models are compared and tracked using several numerical indicators, including traditional Cross-Orthogonality and Modal Assurance Criteria approaches, as well as numerical indicators obtained by comparing modal strain energy and kinetic energy distributions. This analysis technique has been used to reliably identify correlated mode shapes for complex Finite Element Models that would otherwise be difficult to compare using traditional techniques. This improved approach also utilizes an adaptive mode tracking algorithm that allows for automated tracking when working with complex models and/or comparing a large group of models.

Towner, Robert L.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Aboveground biomass density models for NASA’s Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) lidar mission

NASA’s Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) is collecting spaceborne full waveform lidar data with a primary science goal of producing accurate estimates of forest aboveground biomass density (AGBD). This paper presents the development of the models used to create GEDI’s footprint-level (~25 m) AGBD (GEDI04_A) product, including a description of the datasets used and the procedure for final model selection. The data used to fit our models are from a compilation of globally distributed spatially and temporally coincident field and airborne lidar datasets, whereby we simulated GEDI-like waveforms from airborne lidar to build a calibration database. We used this database to expand the geographic extent of past waveform lidar studies, and divided the globe into four broad strata by Plant Functional Type (PFT) and six geographic regions. GEDI’s waveform-to-biomass models take the form of parametric Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models with simulated Relative Height (RH) metrics as predictor variables. From an exhaustive set of candidate models, we selected the best input predictor variables, and data transformations for each geographic stratum in the GEDI domain to produce a set of comprehensive predictive footprint-level models. We found that model selection frequently favored combinations of RH metrics at the 98th, 90th, 50th, and 10th height above ground-level percentiles (RH98, RH90, RH50, and RH10, respectively), but that inclusion of lower RH metrics (e.g. RH10) did not markedly improve model performance. Second, forced inclusion of RH98 in all models was important and did not degrade model performance, and the best performing models were parsimonious, typically having only 1-3 predictors. Third, stratification by geographic domain (PFT, geographic region) improved model performance in comparison to global models without stratification. Fourth, for the vast majority of strata, the best performing models were fit using square root transformation of field AGBD and/or height metrics. There was considerable variability in model performance across geographic strata, and areas with sparse training data and/or high AGBD values had the poorest performance. These models are used to produce global predictions of AGBD, but will be improved in the future as more and better training data become available.

Laura Duncanson↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Regional and Model-Specific Response Types in A Global Gridded Crop Model Ensemble

Crop models are often employed to project crop yields under changing conditions such as global warming and associated management change for adaptation. Multi-model ensembles are promoted to enhance the robustness of projections, but questions remain on what causes often large differences between projections of individual models. Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs) are especially exposed to this question when applied for assessing climate change impacts, adaptation, environmental impacts of agricultural production, because their results are used in downstream analyses, such as in integrated assessment or economic modeling for projecting future land-use change. Even though global gridded crop models are often based on detailed field-scale models or have implemented similar modeling principles in other ecosystem models, global-scale models are subject to substantial uncertainties from both model structure and parametrization as well as from calibration and input data quality. AgMIP’s Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) has thus set out to intercompare GGCMs in order to evaluate model performance, describe model uncertainties, identify inconsistencies within the ensemble and underlying reasons, and to ultimately improve models and modeling capacities. In phase 2 of the GGCMI activities, 12 modeling groups followed a modeling protocol that asked for up to 1404 31-year global simulations at 0.5 arc-degree spatial resolution to assess models’ sensitivities to changes in carbon dioxide (C; 4 different levels) temperature (T; 7 different offset levels), water supply (W; 9 levels), and nitrogen (N; 3 levels), the so-called CTWN experiment (Franke et al. 2020; http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020). We here present analyses of model response types using impact response surfaces along the C, T, W, and N dimensions, respectively and collectively. Doing so, we can understand differences in simulated responses per driver rather than aggregated changes in yields. We find that models’ sensitivities to the individual driver dimensions are substantially different and often more different across models than across regions. A cluster analysis finds regional and model-specific patterns. There is some agreement across models with respect to the spatial patterns of response types but strong differences in the distribution of response type clusters across models suggests that models need to undergo further scrutiny. We suggest establishing standards in model process evaluation not only against historical dynamics but also against dedicated experiments across the CTWN dimensions.

crop models↗

NASA NTRS2016

A Model for Straight and Helical Solar Jets: II. Parametric Study of the Plasma Beta

Context. Jets are dynamic, impulsive, well-collimated plasma events that develop at many different scales and in different layers of the solar atmosphere. Aims. Jets are believed to be induced by magnetic reconnection, a process central to many astrophysical phenomena. Within the solar atmosphere, jet-like events develop in many different environments, e.g. in the vicinity of active regions as well as in coronal holes, and at various scales, from small photospheric spicules to large coronal jets. In all these events, signatures of helical structure and/or twisting/rotating motions are regularly observed. The present study aims to establish that a single model can generally reproduce the observed properties of these jet-like events. Methods. In this study, using our state-of-the-art numerical solver ARMS, we present a parametric study of a numerical tridimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of solar jet-like events. Within the MHD paradigm, we study the impact of varying the atmospheric plasma beta on the generation and properties of solar-like jets. Results. The parametric study validates our model of jets for plasma beta ranging from 10(sup 3) to 1, typical of the different layers and magnetic environments of the solar atmosphere. Our model of jets can robustly explain the generation of helical solar jet-like events at various beta less than or equal to 1. We show that the plasma beta modifies the morphology of the helical jet, explaining the different observed shapes of jets at different scales and in different layers of the solar atmosphere. Conclusions. Our results allow us to understand the energisation, triggering, and driving processes of jet-like events. Our model allows us to make predictions of the impulsiveness and energetics of jets as determined by the surrounding environment, as well as the morphological properties of the resulting jets.

Magnetic Field↗

DOE OSTI2020

A viscoelastic model for seismic attenuation using fractal mechanical networks

SUMMARY Seismic attenuation (quantified by the quality factor Q) has a significant impact on the seismic waveforms, especially in the fluid-saturated rocks. This dissipative process can be phenomenologically represented by viscoelastic models. Previous seismological studies show that the Q value of Earth media exhibits a nearly frequency-independent behaviour (often referred to as constant-Q in literature) in the seismic frequency range. Such attenuation can be described by the mathematical Kjartansson constant-Q model, which lacks of a physical representation in the viscoelastic sense. Inspired by the fractal nature of the pore fluid distribution in patchy-saturated rocks, here we propose two fractal mechanical network (FMN) models, that is, a fractal tree model and a quasi-fractal ladder model, to phenomenologically represent the frequency-independent Q behaviour. As with the classic viscoelastic models, the FMN models are composed of mechanical elements (spring and dashpots) arranged in different hierarchical patterns. A particular parametrization of each model can produce the same complex modulus as in the Kjartansson model, which leads to the constant-Q. Applying the theory to several typical rock samples, we find that the seismic attenuation signature of these rocks can be accurately represented by either one of the FMN models. Besides, we demonstrate that the ladder model in particular exhibits the realistic multiscale fractal structure of the saturated rocks. Therefore, the FMN models as a proxy could provide a new way to estimate the microscopic rock structure property from macroscopic seismic attenuation observation.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

NASA NTRS2017

Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) Surrogate Models for Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) Performance Assessment

The primary purpose of the multiPOST tool is to enable the execution of much larger sets of vehicle cases to allow for broader trade space exploration. However, this exploration is not achieved solely with the increased case throughput. The multiPOST tool is applied to carry out a Design of Experiments (DOE), which is a set of cases that have been structured to capture a maximum amount of information about the design space with minimal computational effort. The results of the DOE are then used to fit a surrogate model, ultimately enabling parametric design space exploration. The approach used for the MAV study includes both DOE and surrogate modeling. First, the primary design considerations for the vehicle were used to develop the variables and ranges for the multiPOST DOE. The final set of DOE variables were carefully selected in order to capture the desired vehicle trades and take into account any special considerations for surrogate modeling. Next, the DOE sets were executed through multiPOST. Following successful completion of the DOE cases, a manual verification trial was performed. The trial involved randomly selecting cases from the DOE set and running them by hand. The results from the human analyst's run and multiPOST were then compared to ensure that the automated runs were being executed properly. Completion of the verification trials was then followed by surrogate model fitting. After fits to the multiPOST data were successfully created, the surrogate models were used as a stand-in for POST2 to carry out the desired MAV trades. Using the surrogate models in lieu of POST2 allowed for visualization of vehicle sensitivities to the input variables as well as rapid evaluation of vehicle performance. Although the models introduce some error into the output of the trade study, they were very effective at identifying areas of interest within the trade space for further refinement by human analysts. The next section will cover all of the ground rules and assumptions associated with DOE setup and multiPOST execution. Section 3.1 gives the final DOE variables and ranges, while section 3.2 addresses the POST2 specific assumptions. The results of the verification trials are given in section 4. Section 5 gives the surrogate model fitting results, including the goodness-of-fit metrics for each fit. Finally, the MAV specific results are discussed in section 6.

Zwack, M. R.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Solid Modeling of Crew Exploration Vehicle Structure Concepts for Mass Optimization

Parametric solid and surface models of the crew exploration vehicle (CEV) command module (CM) structure concepts are developed for rapid finite element analyses, structural sizing and estimation of optimal structural mass. The effects of the structural configuration and critical design parameters on the stress distribution are visualized, examined to arrive at an efficient design. The CM structural components consisted of the outer heat shield, inner pressurized crew cabin, ring bulkhead and spars. For this study only the internal cabin pressure load case is considered. Component stress, deflection, margins of safety and mass are used as design goodness criteria. The design scenario is explored by changing the component thickness parameters and materials until an acceptable design is achieved. Aluminum alloy, titanium alloy and an advanced composite material properties are considered for the stress analysis and the results are compared as a part of lessons learned and to build up a structural component sizing knowledge base for the future CEV technology support. This independent structural analysis and the design scenario based optimization process may also facilitate better CM structural definition and rapid prototyping.

Mukhopadhyay, Vivek↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Lunar Water Extraction Via Lunar Auger Dryer ISRU (LADI)

In 2009, the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) and Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS) provided definitive proof of water in the Lunar’s southern permanently shadowed region (PSR)1. Both the 2020 NASA Technology Taxonomy2 and the Lunar Surface Innovation Initiative (LSII) team identified capability gaps in icy regolith transfer and reactor processing in Permanently Shadowed Region (PSR) environmental conditions. A water processing plant operating inside the PSR can continuously process water (and volatiles) for both breathable air and propellant. NASA’s Johnson Space Center (JSC) fabricated a unique breadboard test stand for validating the feasibility of this concept,developed a lunar auger dryer sizing tool, and identified the physical flow and thermal models required to design an Engineering Development Unit (EDU) for environmental testing. Over the two years this project was active, models were developed including: a) a sizing tool that scales the auger parameters based on production targets, b) accurate thermal models in both lab and lunar conditions, c) a Discreet Element Model (DEM) for observing particle effects in low-g, and d) incorporated these subsystem models into a MATLAB parametric Modular Open System Approach (MOSA) system model. These models were validated by testing the auger in both a mechanical and thermal system configuration. The results of this testing increased the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of the Lunar Auger Dryer ISRU (LADI) system to TRL 4.

Lunar↗

NASA NTRS1990

Obtaining consistent models of helicopter flight-data measurement errors using kinematic-compatibility and state-reconstruction methods

A new method was developed for application of Kalman Filter/Smoothers to post-flight processing of helicopter flight test dynamic measurements. This processing includes checking for kinematic compatibility among the measurements, identification of a measurement error model, and reconstruction of both measured and unmeasured time histories. Emphasis is placed on identification of a parametric measurement error model which is valid for a set of flight test data. This is facilitated through a new method of concatenating several maneuver time histories. The method also includes a model structure determination step which ensures that a physically realistic parameterization has been achieved. Application of the method to a set of BO-105 flight test data is illustrated. The resulting minimally parameterized error model is shown to characterize the measurement errors of the entire data set with very little variation in the parameter values. Reconstructed time histories are shown to have increased bandwidths and signal to noise ratios.

Fletcher, Jay W.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Multi-Level Analysis of Pulsed Detonation Engines

The present study explores some issues concerning the operational performance of pulsed detonation engines. Zero-, one- and two-dimensional, transient models are employed in a synergistic manner to elucidate the various characteristics that can be expected from each level of analysis. The zero-dimensional model provides rapid parametric trends that help to identify the global characteristics of pulsed detonation engines. The one-dimensional model adds key wave propagation issues that are omitted in the zero-dimensional model and helps to assess its limitations. Finally, the two-dimensional model allows estimates of the first-order multi-dimensional effects and provides an initial multi-dimensional end-correction for the one-dimensional model. The zero-dimensional results indicate that the pulsed detonation engine is competitive with a rocket engine when exhausting to vacuum conditions. At finite back pressures, the PDE out-performs the rocket if the combustion pressure rise from the detonation is added to the chamber pressure in the rocket. If the two peak pressures are the same, the rocket performance is higher. Two-dimensional corrections added to the one-dimensional model result in a modest improvement in predicted specific impulse over the constant pressure boundary condition.

Ebrahimi, Houshang B.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Application of Sequential Design of Experiments (SDoE) to Large Pilot-Scale Solvent-Based CO2 Capture Process at Technology Centre Mongstad (TCM)

The United States Department of Energy’s Carbon Capture Simulation for Industry Impact (CCSI2) program has developed a framework for sequential design of experiments (SDoE) that aims to maximize knowledge gained from budget- and schedule-limited pilot scale testing. SDoE was applied to the planning and execution of campaigns for testing CO2 capture systems at pilot-scale in order to optimally allocate resources available for the testing. In this methodology, a stochastic process model is developed by quantifying the parametric uncertainty in submodels of interest; for a solvent-based CO2 capture system, these may include physical properties and equipment performance submodels (e.g., mass transfer, interfacial area). This uncertainty is propagated through the full process model, over variable operating conditions, for estimating the resulting uncertainty in key model outputs (e.g., percentage of CO2 capture, solvent regeneration energy requirement). In developing a data collection plan, the predicted output uncertainty is incorporated into an algorithm that seeks simultaneously to select process operating conditions for which the predicted uncertainty is relatively high and to ensure that the entire space of operation is well represented. This test plan is then used to guide operation of the pilot plant at varying steady-state conditions, with resulting process data incorporated into the existing model using Bayesian inference to refine parameter distributions. The updated stochastic model, with reduced parametric uncertainty from data collected, is then used to guide additional data collection, thus the sequential nature of the experimental design. The SDoE process was implemented at the pilot test unit (12 MWe in scale) at Norway’s Technology Centre Mongstad (TCM) in a summer 2018 test campaign with aqueous monoethanolamine (MEA). During the test campaign, the varied operating conditions included the flowrates of circulated solvent, flue gas, and reboiler steam and the CO2 concentration in the flue gas. The process data were used to update probability distributions of mass transfer and interfacial area parameters of a stochastic process model developed by the CCSI2 team. Two iterations of the SDoE process were executed, resulting in the uncertainty in model predicted CO2 capture percentage decreasing by an average of 58.0 ± 4.7% over the full input space of interest. This work demonstrates the potential of the SDoE process for model refinement through reduction in process model parametric uncertainty, and ultimately risk in scale-up, in CO2 capture technology performance.

carbon capture↗

NASA NTRS2001

Modeling and Analysis of Wrinkled Membranes: An Overview

Thin-film membranes are basic elements of a variety of space inflatable/deployable structures. Wrinkling degrades the performance and reliability of these membrane structures, and hence has been a topic of continued interest. Wrinkling analysis of membranes for general geometry and arbitrary boundary conditions is quite challenging. The objective of this presentation is two-fold. Firstly, the existing models of wrinkled membranes and related numerical solution methods are reviewed. The important issues to be discussed are the capability of a membrane model to characterize taut, wrinkled and slack states of membranes in a consistent and physically reasonable manner; the ability of a wrinkling analysis method to predict the formation and growth of wrinkled regions, and to determine out-of-plane deformation and wrinkled waves; the convergence of a numerical solution method for wrinkling analysis; and the compatibility of a wrinkling analysis with general-purpose finite element codes. According to this review, several opening issues in modeling and analysis of wrinkled membranes that are to be addressed in future research are summarized, The second objective of this presentation is to discuss a newly developed membrane model of two viable parameters (2-VP model) and associated parametric finite element method (PFEM) for wrinkling analysis are introduced. The innovations and advantages of the proposed membrane model and PFEM-based wrinkling analysis are: (1) Via a unified stress-strain relation; the 2-VP model treat the taut, wrinkled, and slack states of membranes consistently; (2) The PFEM-based wrinkling analysis has guaranteed convergence; (3) The 2-VP model along with PFEM is capable of predicting membrane out-of-plane deformations; and (4) The PFEM can be integrated into any existing finite element code. Preliminary numerical examples are also included in this presentation to demonstrate the 2-VP model and PFEM-based wrinkling analysis approach.

Yang, B.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Hard and Soft Constraints in Reliability-Based Design Optimization

This paper proposes a framework for the analysis and design optimization of models subject to parametric uncertainty where design requirements in the form of inequality constraints are present. Emphasis is given to uncertainty models prescribed by norm bounded perturbations from a nominal parameter value and by sets of componentwise bounded uncertain variables. These models, which often arise in engineering problems, allow for a sharp mathematical manipulation. Constraints can be implemented in the hard sense, i.e., constraints must be satisfied for all parameter realizations in the uncertainty model, and in the soft sense, i.e., constraints can be violated by some realizations of the uncertain parameter. In regard to hard constraints, this methodology allows (i) to determine if a hard constraint can be satisfied for a given uncertainty model and constraint structure, (ii) to generate conclusive, formally verifiable reliability assessments that allow for unprejudiced comparisons of competing design alternatives and (iii) to identify the critical combination of uncertain parameters leading to constraint violations. In regard to soft constraints, the methodology allows the designer (i) to use probabilistic uncertainty models, (ii) to calculate upper bounds to the probability of constraint violation, and (iii) to efficiently estimate failure probabilities via a hybrid method. This method integrates the upper bounds, for which closed form expressions are derived, along with conditional sampling. In addition, an l(sub infinity) formulation for the efficient manipulation of hyper-rectangular sets is also proposed.

Crespo, L.uis G.↗

NASA NTRS2023

New Seawater Dielectric Constant Parametrization and Application to SMOS Retrieved Salinity

The accuracy of the Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) retrieved from L-Band radiometer measurements is strongly dependent on the reliability of the dielectric constant model. Two new parametrizations were recently developed based on one hand on the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite multi-angular brightness temperature measurements by Boutin et al. (2021) (BV), and on the other hand, on new George Washington University laboratory measurements by Zhou et al. (2021) (GW2020). These two approaches are fully independent. For most SSS and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) conditions commonly observed over the open ocean, the relative variations of brightness temperatures Tb simulated through the BV and GW2020 parametrizations agree particularly well, and better than with earlier parametrizations previously used in the SMOS, Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and Aquarius SSS retrievals. Nevertheless, uncertainty remains, especially below 10 °C where a ∼ 0.1 K relative difference between the two models is observed. This motivates the development of a revised parameterization, BVZ, based on a methodology similar to that used to derive BV but using GW2020 instead of SMOS measurements. Compared to the GW2020 parameterization, BVZ is derived with a reduced number of degrees of freedom, it relies on the TEOS10 PSS78 conductivity-salinity relationship, and on the previously derived static permittivity of fresh water. One month per season of SMOS data have been reprocessed in 2018 using BV, GW2020, and BVZ. We find the best overall agreement between SMOS SSS and Argo SSS with BVZ parametrization, with noticeable improvement in the 5 °C–15 °C SST range.

sea measurements↗

DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic multiscale modeling for quantifying statistical and model errors with application to composite materials

This paper provides a coherent and efficient computational framework for stochastic multiscale analysis of material systems in the presence of parametric uncertainties and modeling errors. Uncertainty in those model parameters that are not deduced as upscaled quantities is attributed to an uncertainty “germ”. While such parameters can appear at any scale, they are predominant at the finest analysis scale. Additional uncertainties stemming from statistical estimation, attributed to lack of data and model error, are associated with each submodel contributing to the multiscale system. Here, a robust and efficient framework based on a generalized extended polynomial chaos expansion (gEPCE) is proposed to simultaneously propagate all these uncertainties in order to provide a probabilistic representation of specific quantities of interest (QoI). We characterize the full probability distribution of the QoI and the uncertainty in the failure probability pertaining to its tails. By combining gEPCE with kernel density estimation (KDE) and directional derivatives, we construct sensitivity measures that connect these statistical metrics of QoI to the various sources of uncertainty to assess their individual and combined impacts. An illustrative problem featuring three-point bending of a composite beam is investigated to demonstrate the presented approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗