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DOE OSTI2016

Early Experiences Porting the NAMD and VMD Molecular Simulation and Analysis Software to GPU-Accelerated OpenPOWER Platforms, In: ISC High Performance 2016: High Performance Computing

All-atom molecular dynamics simulations of biomolecules provide a powerful tool for exploring the structure and dynamics of large protein complexes within realistic cellular environments. Unfortunately, such simulations are extremely demanding in terms of their computational requirements, and they present many challenges in terms of preparation, simulation methodology, and analysis and visualization of results. We describe our early experiences porting the popular molecular dynamics simulation program NAMD and the simulation preparation, analysis, and visualization tool VMD to GPU-accelerated OpenPOWER hardware platforms. We report our experiences with compiler-provided autovectorization and compare with hand-coded vector intrinsics for the POWER8 CPU. We explore the performance benefits obtained from unique POWER8 architectural features such as 8-way SMT and its value for particular molecular modeling tasks. Finally, we evaluate the performance of several GPU-accelerated molecular modeling kernels and relate them to other hardware platforms.

Computer Science↗

DOE OSTI2019

Quantitative Risk Management - Risk Informed Decision Making on High-Risk Waste Remediation Projects - 19022

For every $1 billion invested in projects, $97 million is wasted due to poor project performance. That means 9.7% of money spent on projects is wasted due to poor risk and uncertainty management. High-risk projects, similar to those in waste remediation, have the most to lose. A solid quantitative risk management program is one of the keys to increasing the likelihood that a project will succeed. A quantitative risk program solves two major problems that challenge the effective management of risk and uncertainty: 1. Risks arise at all levels of an organization; however, not all organizational levels have an effective way to identify and resolve them. This can lead to risks that, even if identified, are not reported. 2. Decision-makers are often forced to operate solely on intuition when implementing mitigation strategies, not fully understanding the effects that certain decisions have on the program's cost and schedule. A quantitative risk program uses a risk register and builds it into the project/program integrated schedule to assess the impact of these risks, typically at the 80% confidence contingency level for specific milestones and/or project completion. Implementing a quantitative risk program drives a forward-thinking, proactive mentality to problem solving into all levels of the organization. A healthy risk program for regular reporting and communication ensures that all members of an organization are thinking about risks and using their communication channels to resolve them. It gives a method of communication and incentive for all levels in the organization and helps to ensure that risks will be reported and resolved. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has developed tools and methods that provide a level of realism for analyzing different scenarios and estimating contingency that does not exist in the standard industry risk tool kit. These tools and methods provide decision-makers with actionable, quantitatively based information to guide their decision making. The first tool is a probabilistic branching risk model for mitigation strategies. Current quantitative risk analysis tools in the industry simulate two cases: fully mitigated and un-mitigated. In the fully mitigated case, the user assumes that every planned mitigation activity is successful. In the un-mitigated case, the user assumes that none are successful. The truth lies between these two extremes. The PNNL team has developed a probabilistic risk model for mitigation scenarios that includes a probability that a mitigation activity will succeed and a probability that a mitigation action will be funded. These probabilities are elicited from subject matter experts and ensure that the contingency calculations at the specified confidence are approaching reality. The second tool developed at PNNL is the Risk Box, which is a tool that integrates with different scenarios in the risk register. For example, say the user is faced with two different and mutually exclusive mitigation actions to reduce a risk. The Risk Box methodology performs the contingency calculations and then displays them on a time-phased graph that shows how each scenario reduces the risk contingency needed on the project/program. This graph then provides quantitative information to show decision-makers which mitigation action provides the greatest reduction (cost and schedule) in risk contingency for the program. Implementing these and other tools within a structured risk program increases the likelihood that a project will come in on schedule and budget, ensures that all personnel are proactively thinking about problems and resolutions, creates communication channels for all members to submit and resolve potential problems, produces a prioritized list of risk rankings to focus leadership on issues that may cause the biggest problems, and implements processes that drive updates to the risk program as the risk profile changes. PNNL has been developing these methods and using them on projects for over 20 years. They have been successfully applied on waste management projects, high-tech research and development projects, and construction projects, and they continue to be used on a number of U.S. Department of Energy projects today. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2019

Washington State Highway Seismic Screening Tool (HSST)

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s Regional Resiliency Assessment Program (RRAP) undertook the Washington State Transportation Systems RRAP project in 2017 to assess the seismic vulnerabilities of that state’s transportation system to a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake. The specific goal of that project was to assess the vulnerability of, and prioritize, transportation infrastructure for moving goods and supplies from Incident Support Bases to Federal Staging Areas within Washington State following a CSZ earthquake. As part of this analysis, Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne), with input and support from the Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) maintenance and pavements offices and state geotechnical engineer, developed the Highway Seismic Screening Tool (HSST) to inform a system-level analysis of highway recovery and reopening times. This report provides a full discussion of the HSST’s development, implementation, and results for the CSZ scenario earthquake. The primary outcome of the HSST is to determine the approximate reopening times of highway segments or bridges damaged by a CSZ magnitude 9.0 seismic event. This is done by calculating the permanent ground deformation (PGD) caused by soil liquefaction along state highways, which can cause significant damage or displacement of highway pavement structures. The term “reopening time” is different from “restoration time” and is intended to represent the approximate amount of time that would be needed to return highways to a minimum state of repair sufficient to support the limited movement of emergency and response vehicles. Additionally, the HSST is referred to as a “screening tool,” as it uses network- or system-level asset management information that WSDOT provided to assess seismic-related hazards and vulnerabilities of highways; it does not conduct an asset-level engineering analysis of seismic-related vulnerabilities. Accordingly, the results of the HSST analysis should only be used for system- or corridor-level planning and investment, and not for engineering or management decisions at the asset level. The HSST is also applied to assess the exposure of statewide rail systems to soil liquefaction and PGD hazards. However, little information is available about the sensitivity or vulnerability of railways and rail yards to such hazards, and therefore researchers were unable to determine approximate reopening times for the state’s rail system following a CSZ earthquake.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Technology readiness levels for advanced nuclear fuels and materials development

The Technology Readiness Level (TRL) process is used to quantitatively assess the maturity of a given technology. It was pioneered by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in the 1980s to develop and deploy new systems for space applications. The process was subsequently adopted by the Department of Defense (DoD) to develop and deploy new technology and systems for defense applications as well as the Department of Energy (DOE) to evaluate the maturity of new technologies in major construction projects. Advanced nuclear fuels and materials development is a critical technology needed for improving the performance and safety of current and advanced reactors, and ultimately closing the nuclear fuel cycle. Because deployment of new nuclear fuel forms requires a lengthy and expensive research, development, and demonstration program, applying the TRL concept to the advanced fuel development program is very useful as a management, communication and tracking tool. Furthermore, this article provides examples regarding the methods by which TRLs are currently used to assess the maturity of nuclear fuels and materials under development in the DOE Fuel Cycle Research and Development (FCRD) Program within the Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Modeling the direct sun component in buildings using matrix algebraic approaches: Methods and validation

Simulation tools that enable annual energy performance analysis of optically-complex fenestration systems have been widely adopted by the building industry for use in building design, code development, and the development of rating and certification programs for commercially-available shading and daylighting products. The tools rely on a three-phase matrix operation to compute solar heat gains, using as input low-resolution bidirectional scattering distribution function (BSDF) data (10–15° angular resolution; BSDF data define the angle-dependent behavior of light-scattering materials and systems). Measurement standards and product libraries for BSDF data are undergoing development to support solar heat gain calculations. Simulation of other metrics such as discomfort glare, annual solar exposure, and potentially thermal discomfort, however, require algorithms and BSDF input data that more accurately model the spatial distribution of transmitted and reflected irradiance or illuminance from the sun (0.5° resolution). This study describes such algorithms and input data, then validates the tools (i.e., an interpolation tool for measured BSDF data and the five-phase method) through comparisons with ray-tracing simulations and field monitored data from a full-scale testbed. Simulations of daylight-redirecting films, a micro-louvered screen, and venetian blinds using variable resolution, tensor tree BSDF input data derived from interpolated scanning goniophotometer measurements were shown to agree with field monitored data to within 20% for greater than 75% of the measurement period for illuminance-based performance parameters. The three-phase method delivered significantly less accurate results. We discuss the ramifications of these findings on industry and provide recommendations to increase end user awareness of the current limitations of existing software tools and BSDF product libraries.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Temperature-programmed deoxygenation of acetic acid on molybdenum carbide catalysts

Temperature programmed reaction (TPRxn) is a simple yet powerful tool for screening solid catalyst performance at a variety of conditions. A TPRxn system includes a reactor, furnace, gas and vapor sources, flow control, instrumentation to quantify reaction products (e.g., gas chromatograph), and instrumentation to monitor the reaction in real time (e.g., mass spectrometer). Here, we apply the TPRxn methodology to study molybdenum carbide catalysts for the deoxygenation of acetic acid, an important reaction among many in the upgrading/stabilization of biomass pyrolysis vapors. TPRxn is used to evaluate catalyst activity and selectivity and to test hypothetical reaction pathways (e.g., decarbonylation, ketonization, and hydrogenation). Furthermore, the results of the TPRxn study of acetic acid deoxygenation show that molybdenum carbide is an active catalyst for this reaction at temperatures above ca. 300 °C and that the reaction favors deoxygenation (i.e., C-O bond-breaking) products at temperatures below ca. 400 °C and decarbonylation (i.e., C-C bond-breaking) products at temperatures above ca. 400 °C.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Ristra Project: FY20/21 Milestone Report

The ASC Advanced Technology Development and Mitigation (ATDM) sub-program was established in 2014 to develop new simulation tools operating on exascale-class computers to serve NNSA (see Appendix B). Over the course of ATDM, LANL management have set a strategy for exascale-class application codes that follows two supportive and mutually risk-mitigating paths: evolution for established production integrated design codes (IDCs) – with a strong pedigree within the user community – based upon existing programming paradigms(MPI+X); and a new start ATDM project, Ristra, a high-risk/high-reward push for a next-generation multi-physics, multi-scale simulation toolkit based on emerging advanced programming systems(with an initial focus on data-flow task-based models exemplified by Legion). The role of Ristra as the high-risk/high-reward path for LANL’s codes was fully consistent with the goals of ATDM as described in Appendix B, in particular its emphasis on evolving ASC capabilities through novel computing programming models and computing technologies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Building Efficiency Evaluation and Uncertainty Analysis with DOE's Asset Score Preview

Building Energy Asset Score Tool, developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), is a program to encourage energy efficiency improvement by helping building owners and managers assess a building's energy-related systems independent of operations and maintenance. Asset Score Tool uses a simplified EnergyPlus model to provide an assessment of building systems, through minimum user inputs of basic building characteristics. Asset Score Preview is a newly developed option that allows users to assess their building's systems and the potential value of a more in-depth analysis via an even more simplified approach. This methodology provides a preliminary approach to estimating a building's energy efficiency and potential for improvement. This paper provides an overview of the methodology used for the development of Asset Score Preview and the scoring methodology.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2013

Thinking Tools for Successful Collaborative Initiatives - 13351

Successful collaboration requires effective communication and collective problem solving. Regardless of the subject area --- environmental remediation, waste management, program planning and budgeting --- those involved must focus their efforts in an orderly and cooperative manner. A thinking tool is a technique used to get individuals to focus on specific components of the task at the same time and to eliminate the 'noise' that accompanies communications among individuals with different objectives and different styles of communicating. For example, one of these thinking tools is a technique which enables a working group to delineate its roles, responsibilities and communication protocols so that it can deliver the right information to the right people at the right time. Another enables a group to objectively and collectively evaluate and improve a policy, plan, or program. A third technique enables a group to clarify its purpose and direction while generating interest and buy-in. A fourth technique makes it possible for a group with polarized opinions to acknowledge their differences as well as what they have in common. A fifth technique enables a group to consider a subject of importance from all perspectives so as to produce a more comprehensive and sustainable solution. These thinking tools make effective communication and collective problem solving possible in radioactive waste management and remediation. They can be used by a wide spectrum of professionals including policy specialists, program administrators, program and project managers, and technical specialists. (author)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Application of sulfur SAD to small crystals with a large asymmetric unit and anomalous substructure

The application of sulfur single-wavelength anomalous dispersion (S-SAD) to determine the crystal structures of macromolecules can be challenging if the asymmetric unit is large, the crystals are small, the size of the anomalously scattering sulfur structure is large and the resolution at which the anomalous signals can be accurately measured is modest. Here, as a study of such a case, approaches to the SAD phasing of orthorhombic Ric-8A crystals are described. The structure of Ric-8A was published with only a brief description of the phasing process [Zeng et al. (2019), Structure , 27 , 1137–1141]. Here, alternative approaches to determining the 40-atom sulfur substructure of the 103 kDa Ric-8A dimer that composes the asymmetric unit are explored. At the data-collection wavelength of 1.77 Å measured at the Frontier micro-focusing Macromolecular Crystallography (FMX) beamline at National Synchrotron Light Source II, the sulfur anomalous signal strength, |Δ ano |/σΔ ano ( d ′′/sig), approaches 1.4 at 3.4 Å resolution. The highly redundant, 11 000 000-reflection data set measured from 18 crystals was segmented into isomorphous clusters using BLEND in the CCP 4 program suite. Data sets within clusters or sets of clusters were scaled and merged using AIMLESS from CCP 4 or, alternatively, the phenix.scale_and_merge tool from the Phenix suite. The latter proved to be the more effective in extracting anomalous signals. The HySS tool in Phenix , SHELXC / D and PRASA as implemented in the CRANK 2 program suite were each employed to determine the sulfur substructure. All of these approaches were effective, although HySS , as a component of the phenix.autosol tool, required data from all crystals to find the positions of the sulfur atoms. Critical contributors in this case study to successful phase determination by SAD included (i) the high-flux FMX beamline, featuring helical-mode data collection and a helium-filled beam path, (ii) as recognized by many authors, a very highly redundant, multiple-crystal data set and (iii) the inclusion within that data set of data from crystals that were scanned over large ω ranges, yielding highly isomorphous and highly redundant intensity measurements.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Facilitating Sound, Cost-Effective Federal Energy Management

Fact sheet offers an overview of the Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP), which provides agencies and organizations with the information, tools, and assistance they need to achieve their energy-related requirements and goals through specialized initiatives.

energy efficiency↗

DOE OSTI2019

WBS 4.2.1.31 Integrated Life Cycle Sustainability Analysis

The main objective of this project (following the 2017 BETO Program Peer-Review) is to provide BETO with a coherent methodology and modeling framework based on life cycle (LCA) and economic input-output analysis, tested and vetted with stakeholders, to better understand the effects of an expanding U.S. bioeconomy at specific levels including economic dimensions such as jobs, gross domestic product (value added), and environmental criteria such as air pollutant emissions, water and land use, ecotoxicity, and others. This supports a 2019 milestone in the BETO MYP and simultaneously addresses a gap previously identified in the BETO program and highlighted, e.g., by BETO Program Peer Reviewers in 2015 and 2017. To fill in this gap, NREL started collaborating with developers of the national level U.S. Environmentally-Extended Input-Output (USEEIO) model in FY18. This peer-reviewed, open source model is based on publicly available data, and developed and maintained by U.S. EPA where it has been the basis for EPA's Sustainable Material Management analyses and program. Also, USEEIO was initially designed for use with EPA's Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemicals and Other Environmental Impacts (TRACI). It aligns well with similar efforts including the Federal LCA Commons and the Sustainable Acquisition Program at the Department of Defense (DoD). In FY18, NREL convened stakeholders from federal agencies, universities, and private sector entities to identify and form a common understanding of (1) models describing the U.S. economy and how to build off of them, (2) a bioeconomy definition for the next modeling steps, (3) the (sub)sectors that can/should be used in the framework, and (4) opportunities for collaboration and data sharing. NREL then created a first order model by disaggregating, i.e., separating the economic activities associated with and attributed to a selected product of the bioeconomy: corn ethanol. Corn ethanol is well studied and has a significant amount of public, validated economic industry information. This is important as disaggregation is a critical step in creating a representative and accurate framework. Corn ethanol served as a validation test case for the method and framework. By the end of FY18, the team was able to generate several scenarios for corn ethanol on national and selected regional levels providing results on the absolute and relative (Megajoule) effects in several environmental and economic impact categories. A second objective of the project is to inform BETO's strategic decision making, specifically its sustainability research portfolio, by engaging in, evaluating, and synthesizing selected global multi-year activities from the perspectives of a variety of complex multilateral and multi-stakeholder processes that pertain to bioenergy. This helps to (1) identify gaps, barriers, and critical areas for future BETO bioenergy and sustainability assessments; (2) identify opportunities and challenges to a sustainable U.S. bioeconomy; and (3) contribute to and disseminate BETO information to and from major global bioenergy and sustainability efforts. This project's work with multilateral organizations ensures that U.S. science-based viewpoints are considered and helps to balance the influence of the large number of countries with the same centralized philosophy. This engagement builds a more solid foundation for sustainable biomass and bioenergy systems in the U.S. and in the world. Working with multi-lateral, international platforms including IEA Bioenergy, Global Bio-Energy Partnership (GBEP), and their partner organizations also allows engagement with important stakeholders including policy makers, industry, NGOs, and academia.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2020

DER Planning with Resilience Analysis Using REopt Lite: A Behind-the-Meter Techno-Economic Analysis Tool

REopt Lite is a techno-economic decision support model for behind-the-meter energy systems design and dispatch modeling. REopt Lite is used to optimize energy systems for buildings, campuses, communities, and microgrids. It is based on a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) optimization model. It is a fully automated and streamlined energy modeling tool that can be used off-the-shelf for a wide variety of distributed generation integration analyses and at the same time is architected to be extensible for user-specific customizations for advanced users and subject matter experts. It is publicly available as a webtool as well as has an Application Programming Interface (API). The API functionality enables programmatic access to the model facilitating smooth integration with other distribution systems modeling tools, and automated multiple scenarios/sensitivity studies.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Plan to Verify and Validate Multi-Hazard Risk-Informed Margin Management Methods and Tools

This report describes the development plan for verification and validation (V&V) of multihazard risk informed margin management (RIMM) methods and tools. The plan will include using new INL developed tool sets coupled with the new multi-partner External Hazards Experimental Group (EHEG) coordinated by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) within the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) technical pathway of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. The RISMC pathway is developing a suite of new tools and methods for advanced evaluation of facility risk. The RISMC toolkit, includes tools and methods focused on evaluation of risk from external hazards (e.g, seismic and flooding events), which have been shown to be dominant risk contributors in probabilistic risk assessments performed for operating nuclear power plants (NPPs). The external events activity (EEA) within the RISMC pathway is tasked with developing tools and methods focused on evaluation of multi-hazard external risk (e.g, seismic and flooding events). The EHEG will provide technical expertise and experimental large-scale testing data needed for development and validation of tools and methods in the RISMC toolkit for external hazard safety evaluations. The EEA within RISMC has two key elements: (1) an organizational and research framework provided by INL and (2) a coordinated group of university and national laboratory partners with the complementary expertise and experimental capabilities needed to conduct large-scale external hazard-focused experiments. This cooperative group will allow INL to leverage a range of existing capabilities to meet the unique needs of RISMC tool and method development. In addition, the capabilities of the EHEG could be used to address needs of other national laboratories. Currently, there is limited data available for development and validation of the tools and methods being developed in the RISMC Toolkit. The EHEG is being developed to obtain high quality, large-scale experimental data validation of RISMC tools and methods in a timely and cost-effective way. The group of universities and national laboratories that will eventually form the EHEG (which is ultimately expected to include both the initial participants and other universities and national laboratories that have been identified) have the expertise and experimental capabilities needed to both obtain and compile existing data archives and perform additional seismic and flooding experiments. The data developed by EHEG will be stored in databases within RISMC. These databases will be used to validate the advanced external hazard tools and methods. The numerical tools under development in RISMC are used to evaluate the impacts that external hazards have on nuclear power plants. These analysis tools will be used to advanced current risk calculation processes and reduce uncertainty in these calculations. To have confidence in the predictive capability of these numerical tools it is important to verify and validate them. To verify and validate numerical tools the user must understand what physics is being used to represent the problem (i.e. constitutive models used to represent the soil and structure), the numerical solver approach used (i.e. finite element), what data already exists that could be used to validate the tools, and what data is needed for validation.

31274↗

DOE OSTI2019

Accelerate Performance (Final Technical Report)

Encouraging commercial building owners to set measurable energy goals before design begins can drive design and contractor teams to develop innovative energy efficiency solutions within conventional building budgets. A federal building owner piloted this technique and created a large-scale zero-energy office building on a budget comparable to local market construction rates. The successes and lessons learned from this performance-based project formed the basis of Accelerate Performance, an expanded program using utilities as the primary outreach channel to replicate the approach. Four utilities partnered with Slipstream, a not-for-profit program implementer, to develop pilot incentive offerings to focus building owners on the whole building rather than on individual building components and systems. The original performance-based procurement process and its successful implementation in a federal building project informed all these efforts. The experiences and lessons learned in different new construction markets led to further process adaptations as well as the development of templates and tools to streamline outreach and technical support efforts. The approach can be adapted to utility new construction programs and is a powerful tool for engaging many building owners early in the project planning process as they make critical energy decisions that impact the performance of the building. The approach has led to real energy savings in building projects by encouraging cost-effective, low-risk, and creative design solutions. The performance-based approach was tested in a variety of applications including different building types and owner types, with many owners adopting performance-based procurement techniques, some with variations, but all maintaining the same core principles. Over the course of the project, nearly 100 building projects were impacted and additional projects will continue to be supported through ongoing program offerings with three leading utilities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2012

Solving seismological problems using SGRAPH program: I-source parameters and hypocentral location

SGRAPH program is considered one of the seismological programs that maintain seismic data. SGRAPH is considered unique for being able to read a wide range of data formats and manipulate complementary tools in different seismological subjects in a stand-alone Windows-based application. SGRAPH efficiently performs the basic waveform analysis and solves advanced seismological problems. The graphical user interface (GUI) utilities and the Windows facilities such as, dialog boxes, menus, and toolbars simplified the user interaction with data. SGRAPH supported the common data formats like, SAC, SEED, GSE, ASCII, and Nanometrics Y-format, and others. It provides the facilities to solve many seismological problems with the built-in inversion and modeling tools. In this paper, I discuss some of the inversion tools built-in SGRAPH related to source parameters and hypocentral location estimation. Firstly, a description of the SGRAPH program is given discussing some of its features. Secondly, the inversion tools are applied to some selected events of the Dahshour earthquakes as an example of estimating the spectral and source parameters of local earthquakes. In addition, the hypocentral location of these events are estimated using the Hypoinverse 2000 program operated by SGRAPH.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

A review on regional convection‐permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges

Abstract Regional climate modeling using convection‐permitting models (CPMs; horizontal grid spacing <4 km) emerges as a promising framework to provide more reliable climate information on regional to local scales compared to traditionally used large‐scale models (LSMs; horizontal grid spacing >10 km). CPMs no longer rely on convection parameterization schemes, which had been identified as a major source of errors and uncertainties in LSMs. Moreover, CPMs allow for a more accurate representation of surface and orography fields. The drawback of CPMs is the high demand on computational resources. For this reason, first CPM climate simulations only appeared a decade ago. In this study, we aim to provide a common basis for CPM climate simulations by giving a holistic review of the topic. The most important components in CPMs such as physical parameterizations and dynamical formulations are discussed critically. An overview of weaknesses and an outlook on required future developments is provided. Most importantly, this review presents the consolidated outcome of studies that addressed the added value of CPM climate simulations compared to LSMs. Improvements are evident mostly for climate statistics related to deep convection, mountainous regions, or extreme events. The climate change signals of CPM simulations suggest an increase in flash floods, changes in hail storm characteristics, and reductions in the snowpack over mountains. In conclusion, CPMs are a very promising tool for future climate research. However, coordinated modeling programs are crucially needed to advance parameterizations of unresolved physics and to assess the full potential of CPMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Air compressor load forecasting using artificial neural network

Air compressor systems are responsible for approximately 10% of the electricity consumed in United States and European Union industry. As many researches have proven the effectiveness of using Artificial Neural Network inair compressor performance prediction, there is still a need to forecast the air compressor electrical load profile. The objective of this study is to predict compressed air systems’ electrical load profile, which is valuable to industry practitioners as well as software providers in developing better practice and tools for load managementand look-ahead scheduling programs. Two artificial neural networks, Two-Layer Feed-Forward Neural Networkand Long Short-Term Memory were used to predict an air compressors electrical load. Compressors with three different control mechanisms are evaluated with a total number of 11,874 observations. Here, the forecasts were validated using out-of-sample datasets with 5-fold cross-validation. Models produced average coefficient ofdetermination values from 0.24 to 0.94, average root-mean-square errors from 0.05 kW - 5.83 kW, and meanabsolute scaled errors from 0.20 to 1.33. The results indicate that both artificial neural networks yield goodresults for compressors using variable speed drive (average R 2 = 0.8 and no naïve forecasting), only the longshort-term memory model gives acceptable results for compressors using on/off control (average R 2 = 0.82 and no naïve forecasting), and no satisfactory results are obtained for load/unload type air compressors (models constituting active forecasting).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗