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DOE OSTI2024

Unconventional Error Cancellation Explains the Success of Hartree–Fock Density Functional Theory for Barrier Heights

Energy barriers, which control the rates of chemical reactions, are seriously underestimated by computationally efficient semilocal approximations for the exchange-correlation energy. The accuracy of a semilocal density functional approximation is strongly boosted for reaction barrier heights by evaluating that approximation non-self-consistently on Hartree–Fock electron densities, which has been known for ~30 years. Here, the conventional explanation is that the Hartree–Fock theory yields the more accurate density. This work presents a benchmark Kohn–Sham inversion of accurate coupled-cluster densities for the reaction H 2 + F → HHF → H + HF and finds a strong, understandable cancellation between positive (excessively overcorrected) density-driven and large negative functional-driven errors (expected from stretched radical bonds in the transition state) within this Hartree–Fock density functional theory. This confirms earlier conclusions (Kaplan, A. D., et al. J. Chem. Theory Comput. 2023, 19, 532–543) based on 76 barrier heights and three less reliable, but less expensive, fully nonlocal density functional proxies for the exact density.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Human Coronavirus-229E Hijacks Key Host-Cell RNA-Processing Complexes for Replication

The recent rise in zoonotic coronavirus outbreaks underscores the urgency to understand virus-host interactions and develop potent antiviral therapeutics. Systems biology approaches, particularly proteomics have been invaluable in providing a global overview of such interactions. However, these conventional approaches rely on measuring protein abundance changes which don’t reflect functional shifts. In this study, we employed a high-throughput structural proteomics approach called limited proteolysis-based mass spectrometry (LiP-MS) to capture conformational changes, which we demonstrate are better proxies for functional alterations. We applied this tool to both immortalized and primary human lung cells following human coronavirus 229E (HCoV-229E) infection. We identified significant infection-induced structural changes within RNA processing complexes such as the spliceosome-C and NOP56-associated complex. These observations emphasize that HCoV-229E infection propagates a multi-pronged effort to obstruct the house keeping RNA processing functions in the host. Finally, we show that HCoV-229E replication can be attenuated by the targeted disruption of these complexes, indicating that the identified cellular factories are viable targets to prevent coronavirus infection.

coronavirus↗

DOE OSTI2024

Molecular Mechanisms of Sorbed Ion Effects during Boehmite Particle Aggregation

Classical theories of particle aggregation, such as Derjaguin–Landau–Verwey–Overbeek (DLVO), do not explain recent observations of ion-specific effects or the complex concentration dependence for aggregation. Thus, here, we probe the molecular mechanisms by which selected alkali nitrate ions (Na + , K + , and NO 3 –) influence aggregation of the mineral boehmite (γ-AlOOH) nanoparticles. Nanoparticle aggregation was analyzed using classical molecular dynamics (CMD) simulations coupled with the metadynamics rare event approach for stoichiometric surface terminations of two boehmite crystal faces. Calculated free energy landscapes reveal how electrolyte ions alter aggregation on different crystal faces relative to pure water. Consistent with experimental observations, we find that adding an electrolyte significantly reduces the energy barrier for particle aggregation (~3–4×). However, in this work, we show this is due to the ions disrupting interstitial water networks, and that aggregation between stoichiometric (010) basal–basal surfaces is more favorable than between (001) edge–edge surfaces (~5–6×) due to the higher interfacial water densities on edge surfaces. The interfacial distances in the interlayer between aggregated particles with electrolytes (~5–10 Å) are larger than those in pure water (a few Ångströms). Together, aggregation/disaggregation in salt solutions is predicted to be more reversible due to these lower energy barriers, but there is uncertainty on the magnitudes of the energies that lead to aggregation at the molecular scale. By analyzing the peak water densities of the first monolayer of interstitial water as a proxy for solvent ordering, we find that the extent of solvent ordering likely determines the structures of aggregated states as well as the energy barriers to move between them. Further, the results suggest a path for developing a molecular-level basis to predict the synergies between ions and crystal faces that facilitate aggregation under given solution conditions. Such fundamental understanding could be applied extensively to the aggregation and precipitation utilization in the biological, pharmaceutical, materials design, environmental remediation, and geological regimes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2019

α-Synuclein Sterically Stabilizes Spherical Nanoparticle-Supported Lipid Bilayers

While it is generally accepted that neuronal protein α-synuclein binds to highly curved and highly charged lipid membranes, its biological function beyond binding remains unknown despite its fundamental link to Parkinson’s disease. Herein, we utilize spherical nanoparticle lipid bilayers (SSLBs) to recapitulate the charge and curvature limit of membrane organelles with which α-synuclein associates and probe how α-synuclein affects SSLB structure and dynamics as a proxy for interorganelle interactions. Furthermore, small-angle X-ray scattering and X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy reveal our SSLBs form aggregates that are clearly broken up by the addition of α-synuclein, a clear indication that α-synuclein confers steric stabilization to membrane surfaces.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Theory of Cation Solvation in the Helmholtz Layer of Li-Ion Battery Electrolytes

The solvation environments of Li + in conventional nonaqueous battery electrolytes, such as LiPF 6 in mixtures of ethylene carbaronate (EC) and ethyl methyl carbonate (EMC), are often used to rationalize transport properties and solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) formation. Solvation environments in the compact electrical double layer (EDL) next to the electrode, also known as the Helmholtz layer, determine (partially) what species can react to form the SEI, with bulk solvation environments often being used as a proxy. Here, we develop and test a theory of cation solvation in the Helmholtz layer of nonaqueous Li-ion battery electrolytes. First, we validate the theory against bulk and diffuse EDL atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of LiPF 6 EC/EMC mixtures as a function of surface charge, where we find the theory can qualitatively capture the solvation environments. Next, we turn to the Helmholtz layer, where we find the main effect of the solvation structures next to the electrode is an apparent reduction in the number of binding sites between Li + and the solvents, again where we find reasonable agreement with our developed theory. Finally, by solving a simplified version of the theory, we find that the probability of Li + binding to each solvent remains equal to the bulk probability, suggesting that the bulk solvation environments are a reasonable place to start when understanding battery electrolytes. Our developed formalism can be parametrized from bulk MD simulations and used to predict the solvation environments in the Helmholtz layer through reducing the number of available coordination sites, which can be used to determine what could react and form the SEI.

Helmholtz↗

DOE OSTI2025

Effect of Networking Density on the Patterning Performance of Molecular Layer Deposited Alucone Electron Beam/EUV Resists

One of the main barriers to continued device scaling in the era of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography is the need for improved photoresist chemistries to address challenges such as poor EUV sensitivity, inadequate etch resistance, and pattern collapse. Metal-organic photoresists are a promising class of materials that can address many of these challenges, and among them, resists deposited via hybrid molecular layer deposition (MLD) have attracted interest for their unique advantages in thickness control, chemical homogeneity, and compatibility with vacuum processing. However, despite many successful demonstrations of patterning, little is known about how the molecular design of hybrid MLD resists affects their lithographic performance. In this work, we study the effect of the network structure, a common feature among all hybrid MLD resists, via a series of aluminum alkoxide ("alucone") negative tone resists with varying networking density. Their patterning mechanism is investigated via electron beam lithography (EBL)─a common proxy for EUV─and compared to their EUV-induced reactions studied via flood exposure and in situ characterization. In conclusion, we show that the resist with the least networking density demonstrates the best sensitivity and resolution, with the ability to resolve dense line/space gratings as small as 14 nm half pitch via EBL.

electron beam lithography↗

DOE OSTI2025

Influence of Gel Formation on the Heterogeneous Oxidation of Organic Aerosol

Recent work has shown that divalent cations can perturb the viscosity and phase state of oxygenated organic particles in unexpected ways, sometimes leading to the formation of gel states. Despite the prevalence of divalent cations and oxygenated organic molecules in atmospheric aerosol, particularly in marine environments, the influence of gel states on the reaction rates is not well established. Here, in this work, we measure and compare the impact of viscosity and gel formation on the ozonolysis chemistry of aerosol particles containing the unsaturated, oxygenated organic species ascorbic acid (AA). AA serves as an excellent proxy compound for highly oxidized molecules in the atmosphere. We measured the hygroscopic growth, phase state, viscosity, and water diffusion rate in binary particles containing AA and water and in ternary particles with an additional co-solute of either ammonium sulfate or CaCl 2 . These measurements reveal gel formation in particles mixed with CaCl 2 , as particles become rigid but allow for relatively rapid diffusion rates of water, consistent with previous observations of gel behavior. We measured the rate of ozonolysis of these particles under a range of relative humidity (RH) conditions, showing a clear decrease in the rate with decreasing RH, consistent with the increase in viscosity and slowed diffusion. Notably, we measured the rate of ozonolysis of particles existing in a gel state, showing that following an initial period of decay, the rate of reaction arrests, indicating that the organic material in the solid state is protected from the reaction. This work shows that viscous particles and gel particles exhibit different reactivity toward heterogeneous oxidants, with significant implications for how we understand the chemical evolution of aerosol particles in the atmosphere.

gels↗

DOE OSTI2019

Ab Initio Calculation of Equilibrium Isotopic Fractionations of Potassium and Rubidium in Minerals and Water

Here, we used first-principle approaches to calculate the equilibrium isotopic fractionation factors of potassium (K) and rubidium (Rb) in a variety of minerals of geological relevance (orthoclase, albite, muscovite, illite, sylvite, and phlogopite). We also used molecular dynamics simulations to calculate the equilibrium isotopic fractionation factors of K in water. Our results indicate that K and Rb form bonds of similar strengths and that the ratio between the equilibrium fractionations of K and Rb is approximately 3–4. Under low-temperature conditions relevant to weathering of continents or alteration of seafloor basalts (~25 °C), the K isotopic fractionation between solvated K+ and illite (a proxy for K-bearing clays) is +0.24‰, exceeding the current analytical precision, so equilibrium isotopic fractionation can induce measurable isotopic fractionations for this system at low temperature. These findings, however, cannot easily explain why the δ 41 K value of seawater is shifted by +0.6‰ relative to igneous rocks. Our results indicate that part of the observed fractionation is most likely due to kinetic effects. The narrow range of mean force constants for K and Rb in silicate minerals suggests that phase equilibrium is unlikely to create large K and Rb isotopic fractionations at magmatic temperatures (at least in silicate systems). Kinetic effects associated with diffusion can, however, produce large K and Rb isotopic fractionations in igneous rocks.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Source-Resolved Inversion of Elemental Carbon Emissions in California Using Log-Space Bayesian Inference

Elemental carbon (EC), operationally quantified by thermal-optical analysis, is widely used as a proxy for black carbon (BC) relevant to short-term climate forcing and public health. Current EC emission inventories remain highly uncertain, with persistent discrepancies between bottom-up and top-down estimates. In this study, we develop a source-resolved, log-space Bayesian inversion framework applied to estimate California’s statewide EC emissions in 2019. By integrating surface EC measurements from the EPA’s Air Quality System network with high-resolution source contributions simulated by a chemical transport model, we identify a one-third underestimation in the existing statewide EC inventory, requiring an increase of the total from a prior of 8.58 [5.49–13.75] Gg year–1 to a posterior estimate of 12.78 [10.71–15.37] Gg year–1. This discrepancy is primarily driven by substantial underestimations in the power and industrial and off-road mobile sectors. Furthermore, population-weighted exposure analysis reveals a marked sectoral divergence between emission mass and health burden: off-road mobile sources dominate both emissions and exposure, accounting for 31% of statewide exposure, while residential wood combustion contributes 26% of total exposure despite comprising only 19% of total emissions, due to its source proximity to population. These findings underscore the need to update sector-specific EC speciation profiles and demonstrate that mitigation strategies targeting off-road mobile sources and residential wood combustion are critical for reducing EC-related health impacts in California.

Zhang, Jie↗

DOE OSTI2026

Direct Ab Initio Simulation of the Synthesis of BaZrO 3 and the Microstructure Impacts on Proton Transport

Controlling and predicting the processing-structure-performance relationship in functional materials is a grand challenge in materials science, with important implications for a wide range of emerging applications; a high fidelity understanding of the performance impact of microstructures formed under synthesis conditions is required to develop advanced materials, such as solid-state fuel cells and electrolyzers. Using the ceramic BaZrO 3 as a case study, we directly simulate the synthesis and investigate how proton transport is dictated by microstructures. We develop a framework that couples density functional theory (DFT), machine-learning interatomic potential (MLIP) driven molecular dynamics, and grand canonical Monte Carlo to perform large-scale, microstructure-resolved, atomistic simulations of proton transport in experimentally representative polycrystalline structures. Our fully ab initio approach, using a MLIP as a proxy for DFT, allows us to quantify the competition between two distinct diffusion mechanisms: one associated with grain-boundary regions and another within grains. When the impacts of grain boundaries are taken into account, proton transport exhibits substantial deviation from the bulk oxide limit. This addresses long-standing discrepancies between theory and experiments. Our integrated approach provides atomistic insight into microstructure-dependent proton pathways in BaZrO 3 and establishes a general protocol for predicting processing-structure-performance relationships.

organic↗

DOE OSTI2025

Challenges in Product Selectivity for Electrocatalytic Reduction of Amine-Captured CO 2 : Implications for Reactive Carbon Capture

CO 2 is a potential feedstock for carbon-based fuels or materials, but is only available in dilute streams. Integrated processes for CO 2 capture and conversion directly valorize the CO 2 captured by sorbent materials, skipping the energetically expensive sorbent regeneration step. Amines are the most heavily studied liquid-phase sorbent materials for CO 2 capture from dilute streams. Amines react with CO 2 in a 2:1 ratio to form the corresponding ammonium carbamate. Ammonium carbamate [NH 4 ][H 2 NCO 2 ] was tested as the substrate using the highly selective and robust CO 2 -to-formate reduction electrocatalyst [( tBu POCOP)Ir(H)(NCCH 3 ) 2 ], where ( tBu POCOP) is the tridentate pincer ligand 2,6-bis(di tert -butyl-phosphonito). When ammonium carbamate was used as the substrate instead of CO 2 , only hydrogen was produced. An equivalent electrolysis with ammonium hexafluorophosphate with CO 2 also resulted in primarily hydrogen. Methyl carbamate and urea were also tested as substrates as proxies for carbamate that do not contain an equivalent of ammonium, and there was also negligible reduction to carbon-based products. These results indicate that the loss of selectivity observed for aminecaptured CO 2 , or ammonium carbamate, is likely due to the generation of the acidic ammonium equivalent as well as the greater challenge of reducing carbamate compared to CO 2 . This study illustrates that catalysts with high selectivity for concentrated CO 2 can favor hydrogen evolution and loss of carbon-based products when amine-captured CO 2 is used instead.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Not Cutting Corners: Bioderived Triggers Driving Oxidative Main Chain Scission of Poly(ethylene terephthalate)

About 20–34 billion poly(ethylene terephthalate) (PET) bottles from the beverage industry leak into aquatic ecosystems annually, necessitating the development of urgent strategies to treat waterborne plastic pollution. Inspired by the scalability of water disinfection infrastructure and protocols, we present a dual depolymerization approach relying on oxidation, followed by hydrolysis. Incorporating bioderived monounsaturated C18 diacid (C18:1-DA) counits at low dosages (2–5%) in the PET backbone overcomes the diffusional limitations of depolymerizing PET in the solid state by suppressing the glass transition temperature of the copolymer by 20 °C. Cryomilled C18:1-PET powder suspended in an oxidant-loaded alkaline slurry underwent bulk depolymerization to oligomers at 80–100 °C via oxidative scissions at the internally located unsaturations. In contrast, conventional PET undergoes only minor end-chain scission under mild alkaline conditions. These oligomers are suitable for low-energy repolymerization or facile solvolysis to monomers. A permanganate-periodate oxidant couple demonstrated successful oxidation through the bulk of the polymer, which subsequently was hydrolyzed to monomers. Furthermore, this model system serves as a proxy for ozonolysis, followed by mild hydrolysis to reduce the energetics of alkaline hydrolysis. This integrated oxidation–hydrolysis strategy paves the way for the industrial adoption of cleaner, advanced oxidation processes, such as ozonolysis for plastic pretreatment, further enabling commercialized chemical recycling of unsaturation-containing polyesters.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2019

Imaging Changes in Cell Walls of Engineered Poplar by Stimulated Raman Scattering and Atomic Force Microscopy

Lignin is a major impediment in the deconstruction of plant biomass to its soluble monomeric constituents. Modification of the lignin biosynthetic pathway has proven to be an effective means of reducing biomass recalcitrance but can often result in impaired growth. As one of the successful instances of “designer” biomass, “Zip-lignin” has been generated in poplar to introduce ester linkages into the lignin backbone. The resulting plants grow normally and have improved biomass deconstructability, especially under mild alkaline conditions that can effectively cleave the uniquely introduced ester bonds. In order to further understand the structural and chemical features that may be associated with the observed improved processing efficiency, we used hyperspectral stimulated Raman scattering (hsSRS) to map the Zip-lignin in planta using lignin conjugated α–β carbon double bonds as the proxy. Such double bonds are introduced in all types of lignin, but unique structures in Zip-lignins experience a ~20 cm –1 shift from 1650 to 1630 cm –1 in their Raman spectra due to the conjugation between the double bond and an associated ester carbonyl group. Analysis of the hsSRS images has revealed that the Raman signal specifically representing Zip-lignin can be estimated. Moreover, it exhibits a distribution pattern in cell wall layers similar to that of the native lignin, but its intensity varies in different transgenic poplar lines. In addition, when the cell walls are imaged by atomic force microscopy and Simons’ staining, we found that the poplar containing the Zip-lignin had increased accessible areas, which may be beneficial to the chemical penetration during pretreatment and substrate accessibility during enzymatic hydrolysis. Our work indicates that both physical and chemical modification of cell wall in Zip-lignin poplar could contribute to the observed improvements in sugar yields.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Coupling High-Throughput and Targeted Screening for Identification of Nonobvious Metabolic Engineering Targets

Identification of metabolic engineering targets is a fundamental challenge in strain development programs. While high-throughput (HTP) genetic engineering methodologies capable of generating vast diversity are being developed at a rapid rate, a majority of industrially interesting molecules cannot be screened at sufficient throughput to leverage these techniques. We propose a workflow that couples HTP screening of common precursors (e.g., amino acids) that can be screened either directly or by artificial biosensors, with low-throughput targeted validation of the molecule of interest to uncover nonintuitive beneficial metabolic engineering targets and combinations hereof. Using this workflow, we identified several nonobvious novel targets for improving p-coumaric acid (p-CA) and L -DOPA production from two large 4k gRNA libraries each deregulating 1000 metabolic genes in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. We initially screened yeast cells transformed with gRNA library plasmids for individual regulatory targets improving the production of l-tyrosine-derived betaxanthins, identifying 30 targets that increased intracellular betaxanthin content 3.5–5.7 fold. Hereafter, we screened the targets individually in a high-producing p-CA strain, narrowing down the targets to six that increased the secreted titer by up to 15%. To investigate whether any of the six targets could be additively combined to improve p-CA production further, we created a gRNA multiplexing library and subjected it to our proposed coupled workflow. The combination of regulating PYC1 and NTH2 simultaneously resulted in the highest (threefold) improvement of the betaxanthin content, and an additive trend was also observed in the p-CA strain. Lastly, we tested the initial 30 targets in a L -DOPA producing strain, identifying 10 targets that increased the secreted titer by up to 89%, further validating our screening by proxy workflow. This coupled approach is useful for strain development in the absence of direct HTP screening assays for products of interest.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Continuous Directed Evolution of a Short-Lived Plant Histidinol Dehydrogenase

Enzyme protein turnover accounts for about half the maintenance energy budget in plants. Slowing turnover i.e., extending the effective working life (Catalytic Cycles till Replacement, CCR) of short-lived enzymes is thus a rational strategy to conserve energy and carbon and raise crop productivity. Arabidopsis histidinol dehydrogenase (HDH) is a short-lived enzyme that can sustain lifeshortening damage from its aminoaldehyde reaction intermediate. We used the yeast OrthoRep continuous directed evolution system in a his4 Δ strain to raise cumulative HDH function and, by proxy, lifespan as functional enzymes, by selecting for growth rate while tapering histidinol concentration and escalating that of the inhibitor histamine. Improved HDH variants carried diverse nonsynonymous mutations and ranged 20-fold in level. Improved HDH performance was associated with higher HDH abundance in some cases and with greater catalytic efficiency or histamine resistance in others. These findings indicate that OrthoRep-based directed evolution can extend enzyme working life in vivo in addition to, as expected, altering kinetic properties.

directed evolution↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evolution from Tunneling to Hopping Mediated Triplet Energy Transfer from Quantum Dots to Molecules

Efficient energy transfer is particularly important for multiexcitonic processes like singlet fission and photon upconversion. Observation of the transition from short-range tunneling to long-range hopping during triplet exciton transfer from CdSe nanocrystals to anthracene is reported here. This is firmly supported by steady- state photon upconversion measurements, a direct proxy for the efficiency of triplet energy transfer (TET), as well as transient absorption measurements. When phenylene bridges are initially inserted between a CdSe nanocrystal donor and anthracene acceptor, the rate of TET decreases exponentially, commensurate with a decrease in the photon upconversion quantum efficiency from 11.6% to 4.51% to 0.284%, as expected from a tunneling mechanism. However, as the rigid bridge is increased in length to 4 and 5 phenylene units, photon upconversion quantum efficiencies increase again to 0.468% and 0.413%, 1.5–1.6 fold higher than that with 3 phenylene units (using the convention where the maximum upconversion quantum efficiency is 100%). This suggests a transition from exciton tunneling to hopping, resulting in relatively efficient and distance-independent TET beyond the traditional 1 nm Dexter distance. Transient absorption spectroscopy is used to confirm triplet energy transfer from CdSe to transmitter, and the formation of a bridge triplet state as an intermediate for the hopping mechanism. Lastly, this first observation of the tunneling-to-hopping transition for long-range triplet energy transfer between nanocrystal light absorbers and molecular acceptors suggests that these hybrid materials should further be explored in the context of artificial photosynthesis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2019

Iron(III) Speciation Observed at Aqueous and Glycerol Surfaces: Vibrational Sum Frequency and X-ray

Aqueous solutions of FeCl 3 have been widely studied to shed light on a number of processes from dissolution, mineralization, biology, electrocatalysis, corrosion, to microbial biomineralization. Yet there are little to no molecular level studies of the air–liquid FeCl 3 interface. Here, both aqueous and glycerol FeCl 3 solution surfaces are investigated with polarized vibrational sum frequency generation (SFG) spectroscopy. We also present the first ever extreme ultraviolet reflection–absorption (XUV-RA) spectroscopy measurements of solvated ions and complexes at a solution interface, and observe with both X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and XUV-RA the existence of Fe(III) at the surface and in the near surface regions of glycerol FeCl 3 solutions, where glycerol is used as a high vacuum compatible proxy for water. XPS showed Cl - and Fe(III) species with significant Fe(III) interfacial enrichment. In aqueous solutions, an electrical double layer (EDL) of Cl - and Fe(III) species at 0.5 m FeCl 3 concentration is observed as evidenced from an enhancement of molecular ordering of water dipoles, consistent with the observed behavior at the glycerol surface. At higher concentrations in water, the EDL appears to be substantially repressed, indicative of further Fe(III) complex enrichment and dominance of a centrosymmetric Fe(III) species that is surface active. In addition, a significant vibrational red-shift of the dangling OH from the water molecules that straddle the air–water interface reveals that the second solvation shell of the surface active Fe(III) complex permeates the topmost layer of the aqueous interface.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2019

Global Seismic Nowcasting With Shannon Information Entropy

Abstract Seismic nowcasting uses counts of small earthquakes as proxy data to estimate the current dynamical state of an earthquake fault system . The result is an earthquake potential score that characterizes the current state of progress of a defined geographic region through its nominal earthquake “cycle.” The count of small earthquakes since the last large earthquake is the natural time that has elapsed since the last large earthquake (Varotsos et al., 2006, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.74.021123 ). In addition to natural time, earthquake sequences can also be analyzed using Shannon information entropy (“information”), an idea that was pioneered by Shannon (1948, https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1538‐7305.1948.tb01338.x ). As a first step to add seismic information entropy into the nowcasting method, we incorporate magnitude information into the natural time counts by using event self‐information. We find in this first application of seismic information entropy that the earthquake potential score values are similar to the values using only natural time. However, other characteristics of earthquake sequences, including the interevent time intervals, or the departure of higher magnitude events from the magnitude‐frequency scaling line, may contain additional information.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗