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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

A Game-Theoretic Approach to Modeling Attacks and Defenses of Smart Grids at Three Levels

As optimization, user capabilities, and data-taking abilities are incorporated into next-generation power grids, or smart grids, they face cyber threats. The traditional electrical grid could only be damaged by physical attacks; however thesmart grid can suffer remote/cyber attacks, which have not been studied extensively in the literature. The electrical grid forms the backbone of the modern society and its security has significant implications in military settings. This paper applies game theory to model three-levels (power plants, transmission, and distribution networks) of defenses and attacks in smart grid network security. We characterize both the attacker and the defender (who interact at three network levels: distribution, transmission, and power plants) best responses and equilibrium strategies. We find that the defender's best response is not only a function of direct attacks but also of the spread from connected networks. Sensitivity analyses of the equilibrium strategies show that when success probability of an attack against power plantsreaches a threshold, the defender increases defending efforts for power plants. In contrast, the attack eort at all levels is not affected by this probability. This paper provides some novel insights to modeling and analyzing the emerging threats to the growing smart grid networks.

Rao, Nageswara S.↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Alliance of Advanced Process Control and Accountability – A Future Safeguards-By-Design Tool

For any chemical separation process producing a valuable product, a material balance is an important process control measurement. That is particularly true for the separation of actinides from irradiated nuclear fuel, not only for their intrinsic value but also because an incomplete material balance may indicate diversion for unauthorized use. The DOE Office of Nuclear Energy is currently carrying out at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory an experimental measurement of how well and with what precision current technologies can implement near real-time actinide material balances. This measurement effort is called the CoDCon project. It involves the separation of a product with a 70/30 uranium/plutonium mass ratio. Initial tests will use dissolved fuel simulants prepared with pure uranium and plutonium nitrates at the same input ratios as irradiated fuel. Subsequent testing with actual irradiated fuel would be done to verify the results obtained with simulants. The experiments will use advanced on-line instrumentation supported by dynamic process models. Since accountability uncertainties could mask diversions, the aim of the project is not only to measure present-day capabilities but also, through sensitivity analyses, to identify those measurements with the greatest potential for overall material-balance improvements. The latter results will help identify priorities for future fuel cycle R&D programs. Advanced separations process control and material accountability technologies thus have a common goal: to provide the best tools available for safeguards-by-design [defined by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as the integration of the design of a new nuclear facility through planning, construction, operation and decommissioning]. Since the potential domestic use of CoDCon results may be later than their possible foreign applications, arrangements may be feasible for possible bilateral or multinational cooperation in the CoDCon project.

Lumetta, Gregg J.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Spatially Explicit Modeling of Criteria Air Pollutants from Agricultural and Forestry Feedstock Production

The Feedstock Production Emissions to Air Model (FPEAM) is a spatially explicit supply chain model that quantifies criteria air pollutants and precursors generated by biomass production, harvest and transportation to biorefineries. FPEAM was most recently used for the 2016 Billion Ton Study (BTS) published by the U.S. Department of Energy Bioenergy Technologies Office. This presentation describes several use cases for the model, and provides an overview of recent restructuring that increases FPEAM's usability and functionality. FPEAM currently estimates emissions of volatile organic compounds, particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, and carbon monoxide from on-farm equipment operation, on-farm fugitive dust, on-farm chemical (fertilizer, herbicide and insecticide) application, and biomass transportation. These calculations are implemented within FPEAM as modules, which independently perform calculations for each emissions category. This structure allows users to include or exclude emissions categories according to the goal and scope of their analysis. Each module's input data defines the activities taking place with information including fuel combusted, chemicals applied, and equipment used. Users can replace or augment the default input data to quantify additional pollutant types, emissions categories, farming practices and biomass types. Emissions from biomass transportation and on-farm equipment operation are by default calculated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) and NONROAD model, respectively. These models - which are computationally intensive but provide detailed results - can optionally be replaced with user-provided emissions factors for fuel combustion and vehicle operation. This approach reduces FPEAM's runtime and allows users to run sensitivity analyses around biomass production and transportation scenarios. Other enhancements currently under development are the use of farm-to-biorefinery route information to increase the spatial resolution of transportation emissions, and a module to connect FPEAM and the Intervention Model for Air Pollution (InMAP), which will enable the quantification of human health impacts.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2019

The 2019 Edition of the ICSBEP Handbook

Over the past several decades, innumerable experiments have been performed worldwide to support criticality safety. These experiments represent significant investment in infrastructure, expertise, and cost, and are valuable resources of data for present and future research. These valuable assets provide the basis for recording, development, and validation of methods and nuclear data [1]. If the experimental data are lost, the high cost to repeat many of these measurements would likely be prohibitive. The International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) was established to: 1. Identify a comprehensive set of critical benchmark data and, to the extent possible, verify the data; 2. Evaluate the data and quantify overall uncertainties through various types of sensitivity analyses; 3. Compile the data into a standardized format; 4. Perform calculations of each experiment with standard criticality safety codes; and 5. Formally document the work into a single source of verified benchmark critical data. Annually, contributors from around the world continue to collaborate in the evaluation and review of select benchmark experiments for inclusion in the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments (ICSBEP Handbook) [2]. Further information regarding the ICSBEP, including highlighted criticality safety benchmark evaluations, can be found in the September and October 2003 editions of Nuclear Science and Engineering [3]. New and recently revised evaluations have been prepared for inclusion in the 2019 edition of the ICSBEP Handbook.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Techno-economic Analysis of CO2 Capture From Pulp/Paper Plants

This poster presentation evaluates the cost of capturing CO2 from a 400,000 air dried tonne (adt)/year pulp production plant, using Shell’s CANSOLV post-combustion capture process. There are five steps in a pulp/paper process: wood preparation, pulping, chemical recovery, bleaching and papermaking. There are three sources of CO2: combustion of waste wood in the wood-preparation step; combustion of black liquor, a product of pulping; and combustion of natural gas coupled with CO2 generated from calcination of limestone in the lime kiln used in chemical recovery. Standalone (pulp only) and integrated (pulp + paper) mills are modeled. The base case results and sensitivity analyses are displayed.

Mantripragada, Hari↗
DOE OSTI2022

Neutronic design and fuel cycle analysis of a fluoride salt-cooled High Temperature Reactor (FHR)

The Fluoride salt-cooled High temperature Reactor (FHR) is a new Gen IV reactor concept that can operate under near atmospheric pressure circumstances and further enhance the inherent safety. In this study, an FHR core design with 165 megawatts of thermal output (MWth) is proposed. The reactor core employs tri-structural-isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel within prismatic graphite blocks as the basic fuel form, FLiBe (2 {sup 7}LiF-BeF{sub 2}) as the primary coolant, and a three-batch fuel cycle scheme. Sensitivity analyses on various parameters were performed to optimize the cycle length and neutronic parameters. The fuel cycle of this core design was evaluated in detail from 4 aspects: cycle length, power peaking factor (PPF), discharge burnup, and temperature coefficient. It was found that larger fuel channel pitch (FCP) would have a relatively harder neutron spectrum, and yield relatively longer cycle length, lower, better fuel temperature coefficient (FTC), and moderator temperature coefficient (MTC). In addition, burnable poison (BP), Er{sub 2}O{sub 3}, can effectively reduce PPF, hold down the multiplication factor, and more importantly it can improve the MTC. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Tapsolver: A Python Package For The Simulation And Analysis Of Tap Reactor Experiments

TAPsolver is a python package, which automates TAP simulation and analysis routines. TAPsolver is built around the python packages FEniCS and Dolfin-Adjoint, which help take advantage of model adjoints to provide automatic derivatives. TAPsolver is flexible, with reaction mechanisms and rate constants that can be set through input files that allow users to take advantage of the different functionalities, which include sensitivity analyses, parameter optimization and uncertainty quantification.

Kunz, MatthewR.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Convection sensitivity and thermal analyses for indium and indium-lead mixing experiment (74-18)

Sounding rocket Experiment 74-18 was designed to demonstrate the effects of the Black Brandt rocket acceleration levels (during the low-g coast phase of its flight) on the motion of a liquid metal system to assist in preflight design. Some post flight analyses were also conducted. Preflight studies consisted of heat transfer analysis and convection sensitivity and convection modeling analyses which aided in the: (1) final selection of fluid materials (indium-lead melts rather than paraffins); (2) design and timing of heater and quench system; and (3) preflight predictions of the degree of lead penetration into the pure indium segment of the fluid. Postflight studies involved: (1) updating the convection sensitivity calculations by utilizing actual flight gravity levels; and (2) modeling the mixing in the flight samples.

Bourgeois, S. V.↗
DOE OSTI2013

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for thermo-hydraulic calculation of research reactor

The sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of input parameters on thermohydraulic calculations for a research reactor has successfully done in this research. The uncertainty analysis was carried out on input parameters for thermohydraulic calculation of sub-channel analysis using Code COOLOD-N. The input parameters include radial peaking factor, the increase bulk coolant temperature, heat flux factor and the increase temperature cladding and fuel meat at research reactor utilizing plate fuel element. The input uncertainty of 1% - 4% were used in nominal power calculation. The bubble detachment parameters were computed for S ratio (the safety margin against the onset of flow instability ratio) which were used to determine safety level in line with the design of 'Reactor Serba Guna-G. A. Siwabessy' (RSG-GA Siwabessy). It was concluded from the calculation results that using the uncertainty input more than 3% was beyond the safety margin of reactor operation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1981

Sensitivity of wind analyses to barotropic energetics during summer

Three analysis schemes - the extended correction method of the University of Hawaii at Manoa (UHM), the National Meteorological Center (NMC) Hough analysis, and Sadler's subjective stream analysis (SUB) - were used to obtain grid-point winds using data for a five-day period in late summer, and barotropic energetics computations obtained using the three schemes for six limited regions in the Pacific and Indian Oceans were compared. Few differences were observed between UHM and NMC stream-function analyses, but significant differences were found in the wind fields and energetics obtained using the subjective method and the two objective methods in data-sparse regions. Major features in the local barotropic criteria field were found to be less sensitive to the analysis scheme used.

Sumi, A.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Sensitivity of Middle Atmospheric Analyses to the Representation of Gravity-Wave Drag in the DAO's Data Assimilation System

The damping of mesoscale gravity waves has important effects on the global circulation, structure, and composition of the atmosphere. A number of assimilation and forecast experiments have been conducted to examine the sensitivity of meteorological analyses and forecasts to the representation of gravity wave impacts in a data assimilation system (DAS). The experiments were conducted with the Finite-Volume (FV) DAS developed at NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO), The main purpose of this research is to determine the optimal combination of wave number, phase speed, wavelength, etc. for representing gravity-wave drag (GWD) in FVDAS. The GWD included in FVDAS includes a spectrum of waves, as would be forced by topography and transient motions (e.g., convection) in the troposphere. The sensitivity experiments are performed by modifying several parameters, such as the number of waves allowed, their wavelength, the background stress amplitude, etc. The results show that the assimilated fields are very sensitive to the number of gravity waves represented in the system, especially at high latitudes of the middle and upper stratosphere and mesosphere in winter. The analyzed stratopause temperature varies by up to 10K when the GWD scheme is modified from a multiple-wave scheme (using a stationary wave and waves with phase speeds of 10, 20, 30 and 40 m/s in each direction) to a single, stationary wave. Insight into the reality of the various versions of the GWD can be obtained by examining the "Observation minus Forecast" residuals from the FVDAS.

Li, Shuhua↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity and Importance Measure Analyses for Various Design Architectures for High Safety-Significant Safety-Related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems of Nuclear Power Plants

A transition from analog instrumentation and control (I&C) technologies to digital I&C technologies is taking place for license renewals of existing nuclear power plants and for operating licenses of new advanced reactors. This transition necessitates research on risk and economic assessments of digital I&C technologies to ensure the long-term safety and reliability of vital systems, reduce uncertainty in licensing costs in addition to timeline, support integration of digital I&C systems in the plant, and find the most efficient technology upgrades. Adding redundancy within systems or components is a common means of improving design safety; however, it can also make designs more prone to common-cause failures (CCFs). Introducing diversity into redundant systems or components is a way to mitigate and possibly eliminate CCFs, but it also increases plant complexity and may be costly. The balance between redundancy and diversity remains a challenge for digital I&C systems. This study performs sensitivity and importance analyses for four design architectures of two digital I&C systems—the reactor-trip system and the engineered safety features actuation system. For each system, two architectures are examined, including a redundant, non-diverse configuration and a redundant, diverse configuration. The sensitivity analysis will provide insights on the impact of introducing diversity to system reliability. The importance results will help identify risk-significant and risk-sensitive components and failure modes, which may be good candidates for future design improvement.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Too Good to Be True? Evaluation of Colonoscopy Sensitivity Assumptions Used in Policy Models

Background: Models can help guide colorectal cancer screening policy. Although models are carefully calibrated and validated, there is less scrutiny of assumptions about test performance. Methods: We examined the validity of the CRC-SPIN model and colonoscopy sensitivity assumptions. Standard sensitivity assumptions, consistent with published decision analyses, assume sensitivity equal to 0.75 for diminutive adenomas (<6 mm), 0.85 for small adenomas (6–10 mm), 0.95 for large adenomas (≥10 mm), and 0.95 for preclinical cancer. We also selected adenoma sensitivity that resulted in more accurate predictions. Targets were drawn from the Wheat Bran Fiber study. In the study, we examined how well the model predicted outcomes measured over a three-year follow-up period, including the number of adenomas detected, the size of the largest adenoma detected, and incident colorectal cancer. Results: Using standard sensitivity assumptions, the model predicted adenoma prevalence that was too low (42.5% versus 48.9% observed, with 95% confidence interval 45.3%–50.7%) and detection of too few large adenomas (5.1% versus 14.% observed, with 95% confidence interval 11.8%–17.4%). Predictions were close to targets when we set sensitivities to 0.20 for diminutive adenomas, 0.60 for small adenomas, 0.80 for 10- to 20-mm adenomas, and 0.98 for adenomas 20 mm and larger. Conclusions: Colonoscopy may be less accurate than currently assumed, especially for diminutive adenomas. Alternatively, the CRC-SPIN model may not accurately simulate onset and progression of adenomas in higher-risk populations. Impact: Misspecification of either colonoscopy sensitivity or disease progression in high-risk populations may affect the predicted effectiveness of colorectal cancer screening. When possible, decision analyses used to inform policy should address these uncertainties.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Sensitivity Analysis for Saltstone Disposal Unit Column Degradation Analyses

PORFLOW related analyses supporting a Sensitivity Analysis for Saltstone Disposal Unit (SDU) column degradation were performed. Previous analyses, Flach and Taylor 2014, used a model in which the SDU columns degraded in a piecewise manner from the top and bottom simultaneously. The current analyses employs a model in which all pieces of the column degrade at the same time. Information was extracted from the analyses which may be useful in determining the distribution of Tc-99 in the various SDUs throughout time and in determining flow balances for the SDUs.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS1999

Overview of Sensitivity Analysis and Shape Optimization for Complex Aerodynamic Configurations

This paper presents a brief overview of some of the more recent advances in steady aerodynamic shape-design sensitivity analysis and optimization, based on advanced computational fluid dynamics (CFD). The focus here is on those methods particularly well-suited to the study of geometrically complex configurations and their potentially complex associated flow physics. When nonlinear state equations are considered in the optimization process, difficulties are found in the application of sensitivity analysis. Some techniques for circumventing such difficulties are currently being explored and are included here. Attention is directed to methods that utilize automatic differentiation to obtain aerodynamic sensitivity derivatives for both complex configurations and complex flow physics. Various examples of shape-design sensitivity analysis for unstructured-grid CFD algorithms are demonstrated for different formulations of the sensitivity equations. Finally, the use of advanced, unstructured-grid CFDs in multidisciplinary analyses and multidisciplinary sensitivity analyses within future optimization processes is recommended and encouraged.

Newman, James C., III↗
NASA NTRS1998

Overview of Sensitivity Analysis and Shape Optimization for Complex Aerodynamic Configurations

This paper presents a brief overview of some of the more recent advances in steady aerodynamic shape-design sensitivity analysis and optimization, based on advanced computational fluid dynamics. The focus here is on those methods particularly well- suited to the study of geometrically complex configurations and their potentially complex associated flow physics. When nonlinear state equations are considered in the optimization process, difficulties are found in the application of sensitivity analysis. Some techniques for circumventing such difficulties are currently being explored and are included here. Attention is directed to methods that utilize automatic differentiation to obtain aerodynamic sensitivity derivatives for both complex configurations and complex flow physics. Various examples of shape-design sensitivity analysis for unstructured-grid computational fluid dynamics algorithms are demonstrated for different formulations of the sensitivity equations. Finally, the use of advanced, unstructured-grid computational fluid dynamics in multidisciplinary analyses and multidisciplinary sensitivity analyses within future optimization processes is recommended and encouraged.

Newman, Perry A.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Sensitivity of LDEF foil analyses using ultra-low background germanium versus large NaI(T1) multidimensional spectrometers

Cobalt samples were analyzed for cosmic ray induced Co-60 with both an ultralow background germanium gamma ray spectrometer and with a large NaI(T1) multidimensional spectrometer using electronic anticoincidence shielding. Aluminum samples were analyzed for Na-22. The results are presented along with the relative sensitivities and precision afforded by the two methods.

Reeves, James H.↗