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At least 667 records · Page 37

Equivalent Breakeven Installed Cost: A Tradeoff-Informed Measure for Technoeconomic Analysis of Candidate Heliostat Improvements

Technoeconomic analysis (TEA) is commonly used to determine economic viability of power-generating technologies, including concentrating solar power (CSP) and thermal (CST) production plants. Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and analogous measures provide an estimate of long-term costs for operating power plants over their designed lifetimes by accounting for revenues and costs in a time-discounted manner. While these measures are effective when assessing a technology’s total lifecycle costs and productivity under various designs, TEA of candidate incremental technology improvements from the lens of LCOE can be limited when required investment and LCOE impacts are small. In this work, we propose a novel metric for TEA of a plant component technology that recasts relative changes in levelized system costs into component-specific capital cost budgets. This measure, which we refer to as the equivalent breakeven installed cost, is the maximum budget for the technology component that leads to improved levelized costs. We illustrate the usefulness of this metric using the example of candidate heliostat improvements for a CSP tower plant. Here, the results suggest that a reduction in mirror washing costs yield a total plant O&M cost of $37/kWe-yr, which is a breakeven proposition if the average reflectance is reduced from 0.90 to 0.85 as a result of the cost savings.

Zolan, Alexander (ORCID:0000000326017604)↗

TechPort Abstracts

Collection of technology development project abstracts for STMD's technology development projects in NASA Innovative and Advanced Concepts (NIAC), Game-Changing Development (GCD), Small Spacecraft Technologies (SST) and Flight Opportunities (FO) programs.

Nathaniel James Booth↗

Independent Technical Assessment of NASA and External Quantum Sensing Capability

The recent FY 2020 federal Research and Development Budget Priorities memo addresses the leadership need in Quantum Information Science (QIS) directing agencies to “prioritize QIS research and development (R&D), which will build the technical and scientific base necessary to explore the next generation of QIS theory, devices, and applications.” Quantum Sensing (QS) is an integral part of QIS. NASA is a key part of the directive to forward American space exploration and commercialization by providing “capabilities that have broad potential applications in space and on Earth.” QS provides an arena for NASA to demonstrate leadership in both areas of the administrative directive. QS uses quantum properties to achieve unprecedented measurement sensitivity and performance, including quantum-enhanced methodologies that outperform their classical counterparts. Typical quantum sensors exploit techniques such as atomic systems, matter waves, quantum entanglement, quantum superposition of states, quantum illumination methods, and manipulation of photons and atoms, in general. Guided by advancements in our ability to generate, manipulate, and control quantum systems, the emerging quantum sensing technologies promise unrivalled sensitivity, resolution, and precision, potentially leading to game-changing applications. Significant gains include technologies important for a range of NASA missions such as remote sensing, in situ measurements, metrology, interferometry, quantum communication, ranging, imaging, radar and lidar receivers, and gravity measurements. NASA Engineering and Safety Center has convened an independent external panel, comprising of Quantum Sensing Experts from Government, DoD, academia, and Federally funded Research and Development Center to conduct an independent technical assessment of the agency's capabilities in Quantum Sensing to understand NASA's internal needs and competencies related to Quantum Sensing and compare agency capabilities with those available externally including industry, academia, and other government agencies. The outcomes of the assessment will help the agency in establishing appropriate strategies and investments to develop and maintain the state-of-the-art sensing competence and capabilities required to meet the agency’s future needs. The External Experts Panel (EEP) is collaborating with HQ, various NASA Center and the representatives in the NASA Quantum Sensing Community of Practice (QS CoP), a part of NASA Sensors and Instrumentation Technical Fellow Technical Discipline Team, in obtaining common, current understanding of agency mission needs where QS can be an important enabler for future needs, and any programs, projects, assets, and technologists working in QS. The EEP organized a Quantum Sensing Workshop of practitioners from industry, academia, other government agencies, external experts, and interested NASA personnel to gather the assessment information. EEP also conducted information gathering on the industry at large, educational institutions, and other government agency research efforts for capture in the assessment database. At the conclusion of this assessment, EEP team will develop findings and conclusions describing NASA’s capabilities for the mission needs, NASA's relative position on new, enabling technologies, and an analysis of the gaps that may present any risks to near-term or far-term mission needs. This presentation will give details of the NASA and External Quantum Sensing Assessment outcomes, findings, observations, and its recommendation to NASA as how it can advance Quantum Sensing technologies and techniques for its science and explorations related missions.

External Quantum Sensing Capability↗

Uncertainty in Land-Use Adaptation Persists Despite Crop Model Projections Showing Lower Impacts Under High Warming

Climate change is expected to impact crop yields and alter resource availability. However, the understanding of the potential of agricultural land-use adaptation and its costs under climate warming is limited. Here, we use a global land system model to assess land-use-based adaptation and its cost under a set of crop model projections, including CO2 fertilization, based on climate model outputs. In our simulations of a low-emissions scenario, the land system responds through slight changes in cropland area in 2100, with costs close to zero. For a high emissions scenario and impacts uncertainty, the response tends toward cropland area changes and investments in technology, with average adaptation costs between −1.5 and +19 US$05 per ton of dry matter per year. Land-use adaptation can reduce adverse climate effects and use favorable changes, like local gains in crop yields. However, variance among high-emissions impact projections creates challenges for effective adaptation planning.

Agriculture↗

Equivalent Breakeven Installed Cost: A Tradeoff-Informed Measure for Technoeconomic Analysis of Candidate Heliostat Improvements: Preprint

Technoeconomic analysis (TEA) is commonly used to determine economic viability of power-generating technologies, including concentrating solar power (CSP) and thermal (CST) production plants. Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and analogous measures provide an estimate of long-term costs for operating power plants over their designed lifetimes by accounting for revenues and costs in a time-discounted manner. While these measures are effective when assessing a technology's total lifecycle costs and productivity under various designs, TEA of candidate incremental technology improvements from the lens of LCOE can be limited when required investment and LCOE impacts are small. In this work, we propose a novel metric for TEA of a plant component technology that recasts relative changes in levelized system costs into component-specific capital cost budgets. This measure, which we refer to as the equivalent breakeven installed cost, is the maximum budget for the technology component that leads to improved levelized costs. We illustrate the usefulness of this metric using the example of candidate heliostat improvements for a CSP tower plant. Here, the results suggest that a reduction in mirror washing costs yield a total plant O&M cost of $37/kWe-yr, which is a breakeven proposition if the average reflectance is reduced from 0.90 to 0.85 as a result of the cost savings.

concentrating solar power↗

Guidance and control strategies for aerospace vehicles

The first part of the report concerns broadly the summary of the work done in the areas of singular perturbations and time scales (SPaTS), aerobraking technology, guidance and aerocruise. The synergistic plane change problem connected with orbital transfer employing aeroassist technology, is addressed. The mission involves transfer from high Earth orbit to low Earth orbit with plane change being performed within the atmosphere. The complete mission consists of a deorbit phase, atmospheric phase, and finally reorbit phase. The atmospheric maneuver is composed of an entry mode, a cruise mode, and finally an exit mode. During the cruise mode, constant altitude and velocity are maintained by means of bank angle control with constant thrust or thrust control with constant bank angle. Comparisons between these two control strategies bring out some interesting features.

Hibey, Joseph L.↗

Post University On-the-Job Training for Engineers

Our national need for qualified scientists and engineers is greater now than at any other time in our history. Fortunately, we can point with pride to this need as a measure of the impact of science and technology on our way of life. In effect, we have made such rapid strides In advancing established sciences and in opening new technological fields that we have proved the value of the scientist and engineer to society, and, as a-result, have created an expanding demand for their services which we must now attempt to satisfy. This demand we face is also due to the changing skills and high degree of specialization required to perform in these new technological fields. The colleges and universities are doing their part to provide current graduates with a modern technical foundation, but we cannot afford to ignore the thousands of experienced engineers and scientists already employed by private industry and government. As employers, we have an obligation to these men and women to see that they are provided with an understanding of the latest advances that modern technology has to offer; that we develop them in particular specialty areas characteristic of a given field of work; and, equally important, that we assist them in the transition from one field to another as the technological emphasis shifts. Practically all technological industries have experienced and continue to experience rapid changes in their activities. The aerospace business, in particular, has been characterized by extremely rapid, in fact revolutionary, changes during the relatively short period of its existence0 At the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, successor to the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics, for example, we have encountered the fun impact of a changing science and technology. Indeed, as a research organization, we have undoubtedly contributed, in some measure, to this change. Within the NASAs Lewis Research Center, we have approximately 800 research scientists and engineers who have matured professionally in an environment which is essentially one of continuous learning - an experience which comes close to being a form of post graduate training in itself. This environment, in addition to providing continuous evolutionary changes, has also provided two major revolutions which have made this development picture more complex. We will describe these environmental changes which have occurred at the Lewis Research Center and discuss the various techniques and programs we have employed to provide for the professional development of our staff. The Lewis Research Center has had an Interesting and exciting l8-year history of aerospace propulsion research and development. It began during the early years of World War II as an expansion of the Power Plant Division of the NCA Langley Center with the mission of conducting research required for the development of improved reciprocating engines and to study the associated problems of subsonic propulsion aerodynamics, It was only a few years later, however, that turbojet and ramjet propulsion and supersonic flight research became our main concern. This transition to jet type engines and higher speeds was our first major technological change. The aerodynamics of propellers became the aerodynamics of high speed turbine and compressor blades; the fuel ignition and carbon deposition problems were transferred from a cyclical or Intermittent high compression combustion chamber to a continuous combustion zone within a thin-walled metal shell; aerodynamics problems were thrust into the supersonic range; and high temperature materials began to play an increasingly critical role. Although this transition still required the same basic knowledge and principles as before, the new engine types did involve a different emphasis and variety of consideration not generally familiar to our scientists and engineers.

Manganiello, Eugene J.↗

Model-based Co-Simulation of Heat Pump Water Heater with Phase Change Materials Thermal Energy Storage

The study analysis the behavior of a new developed heat pump water heater technology which integrates a phase change materials storage with a standard heat pump water heater to maximize the performance parameters of the Unified Energy Factor (UEF) and First Hour Rating (FHR). A model-based control development co-simulation platform is developed to include equipment models, such as heat pump, standard water tank, phase change materials storage tank, and integrate them with control model to support controls design, analysis, verification, and validation. Simulation results are compared with lab test results to validate the accuracy of developed co-simulation platform

Sun, Jian↗

Future Wind Energy Resources and Cost Uncertainties Across the United States

This dataset contains results estimating projections of change of annual capacity factors and levelized cost of energy for several turbine technologies in the 2024 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB). Projections of change are based on downscaled earth system model (ESM) data from Sup3rCC. There has been evidence of reductions in average wind speeds over land in North America since the 1980s, and several models project that average wind speeds will continue to decrease. Concurrently, the cost of wind energy systems in the United States has been decreasing since around 2010, a trend also projected to continue. There is considerable uncertainty in these future projections, with quantitative estimates of future wind resource and system costs varying widely. To study this, we run land-based wind energy models with a range of possible future system costs, turbine designs, and meteorological inputs from multiple downscaled earth system models over the contiguous United States to estimate critical system performance metrics such as annual energy production (AEP) and levelized cost of energy. Where multiple earth system models agree, changes in mean AEP from the time period 2000-2019 to 2040-2059 can be as high as +10% in South Texas or as low as -20% in Iowa. Several additional states in the Midwest that currently have considerable wind generation capacity show the possibility of substantial decreases in AEP by mid-century. Larger turbines and moderate reductions in system costs can offset even the largest projected decreases in wind resource, but much uncertainty remains in the extent to which wind resources will actually change into the future and to what extent wind energy systems can drive down future costs. An analysis of variance shows, in several states in the Midwest, the uncertainty in future wind resource can be almost as important for future changes in the cost of wind energy as the uncertainty in future system costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Adapting to a Changing World: Managing the Promise and Peril of Emerging Technologies and the Nuclear Nexus [Slides]

The Promise and Peril of Emerging Technologies: New and emerging technologies offer countless advances for just above everything; They also have the potential to be used for more destructive purposes; These technologies remain largely ungoverned by laws or norms; and, The nexus of emerging technologies with nuclear threats demands special attention. Overview, questions: How should we be thinking about these issues? What can we do to reduce the risk that accidents or miscalculation will lead to inadvertent escalation—especially at the nuclear nexus? This talk will examine emerging threats, the state of play of international discussions on these issues, and offer recommendations for the future.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Civilian Aeronautical Futures - The Responsibly Imaginable

Since 1940 Aeronautics has had an immense impact upon Global Human lifestyles and affairs - in both the Civilian and Military arenas. During this period Long distance Train and Ship passenger transport were largely supplanted by Air Travel and Aviation assumed a dominant role in warfare. The early 1940 s to the mid 1970 s was a particularly productive period in terms of Aeronautical Technology. What is interesting is that, since the mid 1970 s, the rate of Aeronautical Technological Progress has been far slower, the basic technology in nearly all of our current Aero Systems dates from the mid 70 s or earlier. This is especially true in terms of Configuration Aerodynamics, Aeronautics appears to have "settled" on the 707, double delta and rotary wing as the approach of choice for Subsonic long haul, supersonic cruise and VTOL respectively. Obviously there have been variants and some niche digression from this/these but in the main Aeronautics, particularly civilian Aeronautics, has become a self-professed "mature", Increasingly "Commodity", Industry. The Industry is far along an existing/deployed technology curve and focused, now for decades, on incremental/evolutionary change - largely Appliers vs. developers of technology. This is, of course, in sharp contrast to the situation in the early-to-later 20th century where Aeronautics was viewed as A Major Technological Engine, much the way IT/Bio/Nano/Energetics/Quantum Technologies are viewed today. A search for Visionary Aeronautical "Futures" papers/projections indicates a decided dearth thereof over the last 20 plus years compared to the previous quarter Century. Aeronautics is part of Aerospace and Aerospace [including Aeronautics] has seen major cutbacks over the last decades. Some numbers for the U.S. Aerospace Industry serve as examples. Order of 600,000 jobs lost, with some 180,000 more on the block over the next 10 years. Approximately 25% of the Aerospace workforce is eligible to retire and the average Engineer age is in the mid-50 s. Firms such as Microsoft, Intel and Walmart are individually capitalized at a factor of 4 or more than the Aerospace industry as a whole. Aerospace Research levels are in the less than 5% range in terms of overall U.S. Research Investments.

Bushnell, Dennis M.↗

Next-generation wildlife tracking devices and integrated sensors for measuring species-environment interactions and advancing conservation

Global land use and climate change have magnified the importance of collecting accurate animal movement and environmental data to improve our ability to model species interactions with the environment and promote effective conservation. Advanced animal tracking devices that couple cutting-edge technologies with our expanding need for ecological information is critical. In addition to further optimizing device size to monitor small, sensitive species, new paradigms for collecting, storing, and transmitting data about animals and their environments will propel wildlife tracking devices forward. Advanced telemetry capabilities will increase our ability to pair location and sensor data from tagged wildlife with remote sensing data. The USGS Western Ecological Research Center, NASA Ames Research Center, and collaborators have been developing new wildlife tracking devices and integrated environmental sensors to address these challenges. We describe a new, miniaturized solar GPS-enabled Globalstar satellite transmitter with accelerometer capability that is 20% lighter and 25% less expensive than existing commercially available tags. We also introduce a novel peer-to-peer, solar-powered network tag that uses long-range, low-power, wireless platform technology. Concurrently, we began adapting a carbon nanotube (CNT) sensor to detect dimethyl sulfide (DMS), a trace gas relevant to marine ecology and climate studies. CNT sensors offer a small, lightweight, and low-power technology that can detect changes in resistance across carbon nanotubes coated with adsorbent selected to specifically bind with a variety of reactive trace gasses. We flew a prototype sensor in a small UAS and sampled an apparent increase in DMS concentration consistent with a well-defined marine frontal boundary. Currently we are integrating project components to create a hybridized architecture of networked peer-to-peer and satellite tags with integrated CNT and additional on-board and remote sensors to advance animal tracking and to provide information for next generation wildlife conservation.

Ian G. Brosnan↗

Improvements in the Uncertainty Model in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature (GISTEMP) Analysis

We outline a new and improved uncertainty analysis for the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) Surface Temperature product version 4 (GISTEMP v4). Historical spatial variations in surface temperature anomalies are derived from historical weather station data and ocean data from ships, buoys and other sensors. Uncertainties arise from measurement uncertainty, changes in spatial coverage of the station record, and systematic biases due to technology shifts and land cover changes. Previously published uncertainty estimates for GISTEMP included only the effect of incomplete station coverage. Here, we update this term using currently available spatial distributions of source data, state‐of‐the‐art reanalyses and incorporate independently derived estimates for ocean data processing, station homogenization and other structural biases. The resulting 95% uncertainties are near 0.05° C in the global annual mean for the last 50 years, and increase going back further in time reaching 0.15° C in 1880. In addition, we quantify the benefits and inherent uncertainty due to the GISTEMP interpolation and averaging method. We use the total uncertainties to estimate the probability for each record year in the GISTEMP to actually be the true record year (to that date), and conclude with 86% likelihood that 2016 was indeed the hottest year of the instrumental period (so far).

Nathan J L Lenssen↗

Stable Methane Isotopologues From Northern Lakes Suggest That Ebullition Is Dominated by Sub‐Lake Scale Processes

Abstract Stable isotopes have emerged as popular study targets when investigating emission of methane (CH 4 ) from lakes. Yet little is known on how isotopic patterns conform to variations in emission magnitudes—a highly relevant question. Here, we present a large multiyear data set on stable isotopes of CH 4 ebullition (bubbling) from three small adjacent subarctic lakes. The δ 13 C‐CH 4 and δD‐CH 4 range from −78.4‰ to −53.1‰ and from −369.8‰ to −218.8‰, respectively, and vary greatly among the lakes. The signatures suggest dominant hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis, particularly in the deep zones, but there are also signals of seemingly acetoclastic production in some high fluxing shallow areas, possibly fueled by in situ vegetation, but in‐sediment anaerobic CH 4 oxidation cannot be ruled out as an alternative cause. The observed patterns, however, are not consistent across the lakes. Neither do they correspond to the spatiotemporal variations in the measured bubble CH 4 fluxes. Patterns of acetoclastic and hydrogenotrophic production plus oxidation demonstrate that gains and losses of sediment CH 4 are dominated by sub‐lake scale processes. The δD‐CH 4 in the bubbles was significantly different depending on measurement month, likely due to evaporation effects. On a larger scale, our isotopic data, combined with those from other lakes, show a significant difference in bubble δD‐CH 4 between postglacial and thermokarst lakes, an important result for emission inventories. Although this characteristic theoretically assists in source partitioning studies, most hypothetical future shifts in δD‐CH 4 due to high‐latitude lake area or production pathway are too small to lead to atmospheric changes detectable with current technology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Apparatus, system and method for highlighting activity-induced change in multi-pass synthetic aperture radar imagery

Described herein are various technologies relating to constructing a differenced change product (DCP) image. A plurality of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images of a scene are generated based upon radar signals directed towards and reflected off of the scene, and a plurality of coherence change detection (CCD) images of the scene are generated based upon the SAR images. The CCD images are registered with one another, and their pixel values re-scaled according to a monotonic mapping function. The DCP image is generated based upon a computed pixel-wise difference between a pair of the re-scaled CCD images. The DCP image identifies locations in the scene where human activity-induced change is likely to have occurred between a pair of SAR passes of the scene.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Applications of Parallel Process HiMAP for Large Scale Multidisciplinary Problems

HiMAP is a three level parallel middleware that can be interfaced to a large scale global design environment for code independent, multidisciplinary analysis using high fidelity equations. Aerospace technology needs are rapidly changing. Computational tools compatible with the requirements of national programs such as space transportation are needed. Conventional computation tools are inadequate for modern aerospace design needs. Advanced, modular computational tools are needed, such as those that incorporate the technology of massively parallel processors (MPP).

Guruswamy, Guru P.↗

Assessment of the Vapor Phase Catalytic Ammonia Removal (VPCAR) Technology at the MSFC ECLS Test Facility

The Vapor Phase Catalytic Ammonia. Removal (VPCAR) technology has been previously discussed as a viable option for. the Exploration Water Recovery System. This technology integrates a phase change process with catalytic oxidation in the vapor phase to produce potable water from exploration mission wastewaters. A developmental prototype VPCAR was designed, built and tested under funding provided by a National Research. Announcement (NRA) project. The core technology, a Wiped Film Rotating Device (WFRD) was provided by Water Reuse Technologies under the NRA, whereas Hamilton Sundstrand Space Systems International performed the hardware integration and acceptance test. of the system. Personnel at the-Ames Research Center performed initial systems test of the VPCAR using ersatz solutions. To assess the viability of this hardware for Exploration. Life Support (ELS) applications, the hardware has been modified and tested at the MSFC ECLS Test facility. This paper summarizes the hardware modifications and test results and provides an assessment of this technology for the ELS application.

Tomes, Kristin↗