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NASA NTRS1997

Global Troposphere Experiment Project

For the Global Troposphere Experiment project Pacific Exploratory Measurements West B (PEM West B), we made determinations of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and dimethyl sulfide (DMS) using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry with isotopically labelled internal standards. This technique provides measurements with precision of 1 part-per-trillion by volume below 20 pptv and 1% above 20 pptv. Measurement of DMS and SO2 were performed with a time cycle of 5-6 minutes with intermittent zero checks. The detection limits were about 1 pptv for SO2 and 2 pptv for DMS. Over 700 measurements of each compound were made in flight. Volcanic impacts on the upper troposphere were again found as a result of deep convection in the tropics. Extensive emission of SO2 from the Pacific Rim land masses were primarily observed in the lower well-mixed part of the boundary layer but also in the upper part of the boundary layer. Analyses of the SO2 data with aerosol sulfate, beryllium-7, and lead-210 indicated that SO2, contributed to half or more of the observed total oxidized sulfur (SO2 plus aerosol sulfate) in free tropospheric air. Cloud processing and rain appeared to be responsible for lower SO2 levels between 3 and 8.5 km than above or below this region. During both phases of PEM-West, dimethyl sulfide did not appear to be a major source of sulfur dioxide in the upper free troposphere over the western Pacific Ocean. In 1991 the sources Of SO2 at high altitude appeared to be both anthropogenic and volcanic with an estimated 1% being solely from DMS. The primary difference for the increase in the DMS source was the very low concentration of SO2 at high altitude. In the midlatitude region near the Asian land masses, DMS in the mixed layer was lower than in the tropical region of the western Pacific. Convective cloud systems near volcanoes in the tropical convergence in the western Pacific troposphere were a major source of SO2 at high altitudes during PEM-West B. High levels of SO2 were observed in several instances with large number concentrations of ultrafine CN above 9 km in the tropical convergence zone. Conversion of SO2, by OH to SO3 and subsequently to sulfuric acid may have been enhanced by lightning-produced NO levels exceeding 1 part per billion. Coupling of strong convection and volcanic sources of SO2 apparently is an important source of new particle formation at high altitude in the tropical convergence zone.

Bandy, Alan R.↗
NASA NTRS1986

The 1984-1985 Antarctic Search for Meteorites (ANSMET) Field Program

The purpose of the 1984-1985 ANSMET (Antarctic Search for Meteorites) expedition was to recover meteorites from the Main, Near Western, Middle Western, and Far Western icefields in the Allan Hills area and to carry out a reconnaissance of other nearby blue icefields. A brief summary of the locations and maps visited are provided.

Sandford, Scott A.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Seasonal and Interannual Variabilities in Tropical Tropospheric Ozone

This paper presents a detailed characterization of seasonal and interannual variability in tropical tropospheric column ozone (TCO). TCO time series are derived from 20 years (1979-1998) of total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) data using the convective cloud differential (CCD) method. Our study identifies three regions in the tropics with distinctly different zonal characteristics related to seasonal and interannual variability. These three regions are the eastern Pacific, Atlantic, and western Pacific. Results show that in both the eastern and western Pacific seasonal-cycle variability of northern hemisphere (NH) TCO exhibits maximum amount during NH spring whereas largest amount in southern hemisphere (SH) TCO occurs during SH spring. In the Atlantic, maximum TCO in both hemispheres occurs in SH spring. These seasonal cycles are shown to be comparable to seasonal cycles present in ground-based ozonesonde measurements. Interannual variability in the Atlantic region indicates a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) signal that is out of phase with the QBO present in stratospheric column ozone (SCO). This is consistent with high pollution and high concentrations of mid-to-upper tropospheric O3-producing precursors in this region. The out of phase relation suggests a UV modulation of tropospheric photochemistry caused by the QBO in stratospheric O3. During El Nino events there is anomalously low TCO in the eastern Pacific and high values in the western Pacific, indicating the effects of convectively-driven transport of low-value boundary layer O3 (reducing TCO) and O3 precursors including H2O and OH. A simplified technique is proposed to derive high-resolution maps of TCO in the tropics even in the absence of tropopause-level clouds. This promising approach requires only total ozone gridded measurements and utilizes the small variability observed in TCO near the dateline. This technique has an advantage compared to the CCD method because the latter requires high-resolution footprint measurements of both reflectivity and total ozone in the presence of tropopause-level cloud tops.

Ziemke, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Evidence of Boundary Reflection of Kelvin and First-Mode Rossby Waves from Topex/Poseidon Sea Level Data

The TOPEX/POSEIDON sea level data lead to new opportunities to investigate some theoretical mechanisms suggested to be involved in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon in the tropical Pacific ocean. In particular, we are interested in studying the western boundary reflection, a process crucial for the delayed action oscillator theory, by using the TOPEX/POSEIDON data from November 1992 to May 1995. We first projected the sea level data onto Kelvin and first-mode Ross waves. Then we estimated the contribution of wind forcing to these waves by using a single baroclinic mode simple wave model forced by the ERS-1 wind data. Wave propagation was clearly observed with amplitudes well explained by the wind forcing in the ocean interior. Evidence of wave reflection was detected at both the western and eastern boundaries of the tropical Pacific ocean. At the eastern boundary, Kelvin waves were seen to reflect as first-mode Rossby waves during the entire period. The reflection efficiency (in terms of wave amplitude) of the South American coasts was estimated to be 80% of that of an infinite meridional wall. At the western boundary, reflection was observed in April-August 1993, in January-June 1994, and, later, in December 1994 to February 1995. Although the general roles of these reflection events in the variability observed in the equatorial Pacific ocean are not clear, the data suggest that the reflections in January-June 1994 have played a role in the onset of the warm conditions observed in late 1994 to early 1995. Indeed, during the January-June 1994 period, as strong downwelling first-mode Rossby waves reflected into downwelling Kelvin waves, easterly wind and cold sea surface temperature anomalies located near the date line weakened and eventually reversed in June-July 1994. The presence of the warm anomalies near the date line then favored convection and westerly wind anomalies that triggered strong downwelling Kelvin waves propagating throughout the basin simultaneously with the beginning of the 1994-1995 warm conditions.

Boulanger, Jean-Philippe↗
NASA NTRS1999

East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: A Historical Perspective of the 1998 Flood over Yangtze River

One of the main factors that might have caused the disastrous flood in China during 1998 summer is long-term variations that include a trend indicating increasing monsoon rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley. China's 160-station monthly rainfall anomaly for the summers of 1955-98 is analyzed for exploring such long-term variations. Singular value decomposition (SVD) between the summer rainfall and the global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies reveals that the rainfall over Yangtze River Valley is closely related to global and regional SST variabilities at both interannual and interdecadal timescales. SVD1 mode links the above normal rainfall condition in central China to an El Nino-like SSTA distribution, varying on interannual timescale modified by a trend during the period. SVD3 mode links positive rainfall anomaly in Yangtze River Valley to the warm SST anomaly in the subtropical western Pacific, varying on interannual timescales modified by interdecadal timescales. This link tends to be stronger when the Nino3 area becomes colder and the western subtropical Pacific becomes warmer. The 1998 summer is a transition season when the 1997/98 El Nino event was in its decaying phase, and the SST in the Nino3 area emerged below normal anomaly while the subtropical western Pacific SST above normal. Thus, the first and third SVD modes become dominant in 1998 summer, favoring more Asian summer monsoon rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley.

Weng, H.-Y.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Interannual Variabilities in Tropical Tropospheric Ozone

This paper presents the first detailed characterization of interannual variability in tropical tropospheric column ozone (TCO) to delineate the relative importance of biomass burning and large-scale transport. TCO time series are derived from 20 years (1979-1998) of total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) data using the convective cloud differential (CCD) method. Our study identifies three regions in the tropics with distinctly different characteristics related to interannual variability. These three regions are the eastern Pacific, Atlantic, and western Pacific. The Atlantic region indicates a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in TCO which is out of phase with the QBO in stratospheric ozone. This is consistent with the photochemical control of this region by ozone-producing precursors. The observed pattern however does not seem to be related to interannual variability in ozone precursors related to biomass burning. Instead it appears to be a manifestation of the UV modulation of upper tropospheric chemistry on a QBO time scale caused by stratospheric ozone. During El Nino events there is anomalously low TCO in the eastern Pacific and high values in the western Pacific, indicating the effects of convectively-driven transport. The observed increase of 10-20 DU in TCO in the Indonesian region in the western Pacific during the recent 1997-1998 El Nino was associated with large-scale fires which may have contributed 5-10 DU of the total increase.

Ziemke, Jerry R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Tropical Rainfall Distributions Determined Using TRMM Combined with other Satellite and Raingauge Information

Abstract A technique is described to use Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) combined radar/radiometer information to adjust geosynchronous infrared satellite data (the TRMM Adjusted GOES Precipitation Index, or TRMM AGPI). The AGPI is then merged with rain gauge information (mostly over land; the TRMM merged product) to provide fine- scale (1 deg latitude/longitude) pentad and monthly analyses, respectively. The TRMM merged estimates are 10% higher than those from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) when integrated over the tropical oceans (37 deg N-S) for 1998, with 20% differences noted in the most heavily raining areas. In the dry subtropics the TRMM values are smaller than the GPCP estimates. The TRMM merged-product tropical-mean estimates for 1998 are 3.3 mm/ day over ocean and 3.1 mm/ day over land and ocean combined. Regional differences are noted between the western and eastern Pacific Ocean maxima when TRMM and GPCP are compared. In the eastern Pacific rain maximum the TRMM and GPCP mean values are nearly equal, very different from the other tropical rainy areas where TRMM merged-product estimates are higher. This regional difference may indicate that TRMM is better at taking in to account the vertical structure of the rain systems and the difference in structure between the western and eastern (shallower) Pacific convection. Comparisons of these TRMM merged analysis estimates with surface data sets shows varied results; the bias is near zero when compared to western Pacific Ocean atoll raingauge data, but significantly positive compared to Kwajalein radar estimates (adjusted by rain gauges). Over land the TRMM estimates also show a significant positive bias. The inclusion of gauge information in the final merged product significantly reduces the bias over land, as expected. The monthly precipitation patterns produced by the TRMM merged data process clearly show the evolution of the ENSO tropical precipitation pattern from early 1998 (El Nino) through early 1999 (La Nina) and beyond. The El Nino minus La Nina difference map shows the eastern Pacific maximum, the maritime continent minima and other tropical and mid-latitude features. The differences in the Pacific are very similar to those detected by the GPCP analyses. However, summing the El Nino minus La Nina differences over the global tropical oceans yields divergent answers from TRMM, GPCP and other estimates. This emphasizes the need for additional validation and analysis before it is feasible to understand the relations between global precipitation anomalies and Pacific Ocean ENSO temperature changes.

Adler, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the North Pacific Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites

Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations for an eleven year period. These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Pacific Ocean total rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most important. To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from passive microwave satellite observations within 444 km radius of the center of those North Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain rate observations are converted to monthly rainfall amounts and then compared to those for non-tropical cyclone systems. The main results of this study indicate that: 1) tropical cyclones contribute 7% of the rainfall to the entire domain of the North Pacific during the tropical cyclone season and 12%, 3%, and 4% when the study area is limited to, respectively, the western, central, and eastern third of the ocean; 2) the maxima in tropical cyclone rainfall are poleward (5 deg to 10 deg latitude depending on longitude) of the maxima in non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute a maximum of 30% northeast of the Philippine Islands and 40% of the lower Baja California coast; 4) in the western North Pacific, the tropical cyclone rainfall lags the total rainfall by approximately two months and shows seasonal latitudinal variation following the ITCZ; and 5) in general, tropical cyclone rainfall is enhanced during the El Nino years by warm SSTs in the eastern North Pacific and by the monsoon trough in the western and central North Pacific.

Rodgers, Edward B.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Effects of 1997-1998 El Nino on Tropospheric Ozone and Water Vapor

This paper analyzes the impact of the 1997-1998 El Nino on tropospheric column ozone and tropospheric water vapor derived respectively from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) on Earth Probe and the Microwave Limb Scanning instrument on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. The 1997-1998 El Nino, characterized by an anomalous increase in sea-surface temperature (SST) across the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean, is one of the strongest El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of the century, comparable in magnitude to the 1982-1983 episode. The major impact of the SST change has been the shift in the convection pattern from the western to the eastern Pacific affecting the response of rain-producing cumulonimbus. As a result, there has been a significant increase in rainfall over the eastern Pacific and a decrease over the western Pacific and Indonesia. The dryness in the Indonesian region has contributed to large-scale burning by uncontrolled wildfires in the tropical rainforests of Sumatra and Borneo. Our study shows that tropospheric column ozone decreased by 4-8 Dobson units (DU) in the eastern Pacific and increased by about 10-20 DU in the western Pacific largely as a result of the eastward shift of the tropical convective activity as inferred from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data. The effect of this shift is also evident in the upper tropospheric water vapor mixing ratio which varies inversely as ozone (O3). These conclusions are qualitatively consistent with the changes in atmospheric circulation derived from zonal and vertical wind data obtained from the Goddard Earth Observing System data assimilation analyses. The changes in tropospheric column O3 during the course of the 1997-1998 El Nino appear to be caused by a combination of large-scale circulation processes associated with the shift in the tropical convection pattern and surface/boundary layer processes associated with forest fires in the Indonesian region.

Chandra, S.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Postseismic Deformation after the 1964 Great Alaskan Earthquake: Collaborative Research with Goddard Space Flight Center

The purpose of this project was to carry out GPS observations on the Kenai Peninsula, southern Alaska, in order to study the postseismic and contemporary deformation following the 1964 Alaska earthquake. All of the research supported in this grant was carried out in collaboration with Dr. Steven Cohen of Goddard Space Flight Center. The research funding from this grant primarily supported GPS fieldwork, along with the acquisition of computer equipment to allow analysis and modeling of the GPS data. A minor amount of salary support was provided by the PI, but the great majority of the salary support was provided by the Geophysical Institute. After the expiration of this grant, additional funding was obtained from the National Science Foundation to continue the work. This grant supported GPS field campaigns in August 1995, June 1996, May-June and September 1997, and May-June 1998. We initially began the work by surveying leveling benchmarks on the Kenai peninsula that had been surveyed after the 1964 earthquake. Changes in height from the 1964 leveling data to the 1995+ GPS data, corrected for the geoid-ellipsoid separation, give the total elevation change since the earthquake. Beginning in 1995, we also identified or established sites that were suitable for long-term surveying using GPS. In the subsequent annual GPS campaigns, we made regular measurements at these GPS marks, and steadily enhanced our set of points for which cumulative postseismic uplift data were available. From 4 years of Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements, we find significant spatial variations in present-day deformation between the eastern and western Kenai peninsula, Alaska. Sites in the eastern Kenai peninsula and Prince William Sound move to the NNW relative to North America, in the direction of Pacific-North America relative plate motion. Velocities decrease in magnitude from nearly the full plate rate in southern Prince William Sound to about 30 mm/yr at Seward and to about 5 mm/yr near Anchorage. In contrast, sites in the western Kenai peninsula move to the SW, in a nearly trenchward direction, with a velocity of about 20 mm/yr. The data are consistent with the shallow plate interface offshore and beneath the eastern Kenai and Prince William Sound being completely locked or nearly so, with elastic strain accumulation resulting in rapid motion in the direction of relative plate motion of sites in the overriding plate. The velocities of sites in the western Kenai, along strike to the southwest, are opposite in sign with those predicted from elastic strain accumulation. These data are incompatible with a significant locked region in this segment of the plate boundary. Trenchward velocities are found also for some sites in the Anchorage area. We interpret the trenchward velocities as being caused by a continuing postseismic transient from the 1964 great Alaska earthquake.

Freymueller, Jeffrey T.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Evolution of the 1997-98 El Nino and La Nina: the Role of Altimetry in ENSO Studies and Prediction

El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to be a quasi-periodic coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon occurring roughly every 3-7 years. Its largest oceanic manifestations are found in the equatorial Pacific, but it is of global climatic significance. During the flight of the TOPEX]Poseidon altimeter, the equatorial Pacific was in the midst of an unusual period of prolonged ENSO warming in the mid-1990's. In 1997, the tropical Pacific witnessed the development of a major El Nino event, rivaling in strength the 1982-83 El Nino. The intensity of this El Nino, and its rapid intensification early in the calendar year, caught the scientific community by surprise. None of the forecast models, statistical or dynamical, captured these features of the 1997 El Nino, although those models that assimilated in situ ocean observations did better than most in predicting that the event would occur in 1997. The onset of the El Nino coincided with the occurrence of several westerly wind events in the western Pacific rather than to delayed oscillator physics. However, western Pacific sea levels were anomalously elevated a year and a half prior to the onset, which may have helped precondition the system to a particularly strong ENSO episode. The coming of La Nina was foreshadowed by large-scale drops in sea level in the western tropical Pacific and cyclonic wind stress curl anomalies far beyond the +\- 8 degrees latitude bounds of the TAO mooring array. In past El Nino events, the evolution of the coupled system could only be studied from the perspective of in situ observations. The 1997-1998 El Nino event will be the first time a major El Nino event will have been observed from start to finish via remotely-sensed measurements of sea surface topography, sea surface temperature, sea surface winds, ocean color, and precipitation. These observations have considerable potential for advancing coupled climate forecasts on time scales from seasons to decades. This presentation will address questions along the lines of: (1) What are the scientific problems in ENSO that can benefit most from altimetry data? (2) Are there any precursors in the global ocean-atmosphere system for the 1997-98 extreme event? (3) Is there a unique role of altimetry in detecting potential precursors?(4) Has Topex/Poseidon data been adequately used to improve ENSO forecasts? Is there any firm evidence? (6) What is the status of the transition of El Nino into a La Nina?

Busalacchi, Antonio J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

El Nino and the Global Ocean Observing System

Until a decade ago, an often-quoted expression in oceanography is that very few observations are recorded throughout the ocean. Now, the sentiment is no longer valid in the uppermost 10% of the tropical Pacific Ocean nor at the surface of the global ocean. One of the remarkable legacies of the 1985-1994 Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Program is an in situ marine meteorological and upper oceanographic measurement array throughout the equatorial Pacific to monitor the development and maintenance of El Nino episodes. The TOGA Observing System, which initially consisted of moored- and drifting-buoy arrays, a network of commercial ships, and coastal and island stations, now includes a constellation of satellites and data-assimilating models to simulate subsurface oceanographic conditions. The El Nino and La Nina tropical Pacific Ocean observing system represents the initial phase of an integrated global ocean observing system. Remarkable improvements have been made in ocean model simulation of subsurface currents, but some problems persist. For example, the simulation of the South Equatorial Current (SEC) remains an important challenge in the 2S-2N Pacific equatorial wave guide. During El Nino the SEC at the equator is reduced and sometimes the direction is reversed, becoming eastward. Both conditions allow warm water stored in the western Pacific to invade the eastern region, creating an El Nino episode. Assimilation of data is a tenet of faith to correct simulation errors caused by deficiencies in surface fluxes (especially wind stress) and parameterizations of subgrid-scale physical processes. In the first of two numerical experiments, the Pacific SEC was simulated with and without assimilation of subsurface temperature data. Along the equator, a very weak SEC occurred throughout the eastern Pacific, independent of assimilation of data. However, as displayed in the diagram, in the western Pacific there was no satisfactory agreement between the two simulations. To help determine reliability of the simulated SEC in the western Pacific, current measurements recorded during the 9-19 October 1994 voyage of the French research vessel L'Atalante are also shown in the diagram. With data assimilation, the simulated SEC was in much better agreement with L'Atalante observations. The simulated SEC with data assimilation was far from perfect, in part because of the sparsity of subsurface temperature observations. In the next experiment, TOPEX/POSEIDON sea surface height data in combination with subsurface temperatures will be assimilated to assess further improvement of the simulation of the SEC.

Halpern, David↗
NASA NTRS2001

Application of Remote Sensing to Assess the Impact of Short Term Climate Variability on Coastal Sedimentation

The University of Wisconsin and Louisiana State University have teamed to study the forcing of winter season cold frontal wind systems on sediment distribution patterns and geomorphology in the Louisiana coastal zone. Wind systems associated with cold fronts have been shown to modify coastal circulation and resuspend sediments along the microtidal Louisiana coast. The assessment includes quantifying the influence of cumulative winter season atmospheric forcing (through surface wind observations) from year to year in response to short term climate variability, such as El Nino events. A correlation between winter cyclone frequency and the strength of El Nino events has been suggested. The atmospheric forcing data are being correlated to geomorphic measurements along western Louisiana's prograding muddy coast. Remote sensing data is being used to map and track sediment distribution patterns for various wind conditions. Transferring a suspended sediment concentration (SSC) algorithm to EOS MODIS observations will enable estimates of SSC in case 2 waters over the global domain. Progress in Year 1 of this study has included data collection and analysis of wind observations for atmospheric forcing characterization, a field activity (TX-2001) to collect in situ water samples with co-incident remote sensing measurements from the NASA ER-2 based MODIS Airborne Simulator (MAS) and the EOS Terra based MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments, aerial photography and of sediment burial pipe field measurements along the prograding muddy Chenier Plain coast of western Louisiana for documenting coastal change in that dynamic region, and routine collection of MODIS 250 in resolution data for monitoring coastal sediment patterns. The data sets are being used in a process to transfer an SSC estimation algorithm to the MODIS platform. Work is underway on assessing coastal transport for the winter 2000-01 season. Water level data for use in a Geomorphic Impact Index, which relates wind energy, water level conditions, and geomorphic change along the microtidal western Louisiana coastline is being assembled.

Moeller, Christopher C.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Forced and Free Intra-Seasonal Variability Over the South Asian Monsoon Region Simulated by 10 AGCMs

This study examines intra-seasonal (20-70 day) variability in the South Asian monsoon region during 1997/98 in ensembles of 10 simulations with 10 different atmospheric general circulation models. The 10 ensemble members for each model are forced with the same observed weekly sea surface temperature (SST) but differ from each other in that they are started from different initial atmospheric conditions. The results show considerable differences between the models in the simulated 20-70 day variability, ranging from much weaker to much stronger than the observed. A key result is that the models do produce, to varying degrees, a response to the imposed weekly SST. The forced variability tends to be largest in the Indian and western Pacific Oceans where, for some models, it accounts for more than 1/4 of the 20-70 day intra-seasonal variability in the upper level velocity potential during these two years. A case study of a strong observed MJO (intraseasonal oscillation) event shows that the models produce an ensemble mean eastward propagating signal in the tropical precipitation field over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, similar to that found in the observations. The associated forced 200 mb velocity potential anomalies are strongly phase locked with the precipitation anomalies, propagating slowly to the east (about 5 m/s) with a local zonal wave number two pattern that is generally consistent with the developing observed MJO. The simulated and observed events are, however, approximately in quadrature, with the simulated response 2 leading by 5-10 days. The phase lag occurs because, in the observations, the positive SST anomalies develop upstream of the main convective center in the subsidence region of the MJO, while in the simulations, the forced component is in phase with the SST. For all the models examined here, the intraseasonal variability is dominated by the free (intra-ensemble) component. The results of our case study show that the free variability has a predominately zonal wave number one pattern, and has propagation speeds (10 - 15 m/s) that are more typical of observed MJO behavior away from the convectively active regions. The free variability appears to be synchronized with the forced response, at least, during the strong event examined here. The results of this study support the idea that coupling with SSTs plays an important, though probably not dominant, role in the MJO. The magnitude of the atmospheric response to the SST appears to be in the range of 15% - 30% of the 20-70 day variability over much of the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans. The results also highlight the need to use caution when interpreting atmospheric model simulations in which the prescribed SST resolve MJO time scales.

Wu, Man Li C.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Airborne UV DIAL Measurements of Ozone and Aerosols

The NASA Langley Research Center's airborne UV Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) system measures vertical profiles of ozone and aerosols above and below the aircraft along its flight track. This system has been used in over 20 airborne field missions designed to study the troposphere and stratosphere since 1980. Four of these missions involved tropospheric measurement programs in the Pacific Ocean with two in the western North Pacific and two in the South Pacific. The UV DIAL system has been used in these missions to study such things as pollution outflow, long-range transport, and stratospheric intrusions; categorize the air masses encountered; and to guide the aircraft to altitudes where interesting features can be studied using the in situ instruments. This paper will highlight the findings with the UV DIAL system in the Pacific Ocean field programs and introduce the mission planned for the western North Pacific for February-April 2001. This will be an excellent opportunity for collaboration between the NASA airborne mission and those with ground-based War systems in Asia Pacific Rim countries to make a more complete determination of the transport of air from Asia to the western Pacific.

Grant, William B.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Configuration and Intraseasonal Duration of Interannual Anomalies of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet

Despite the fact that the low-level jet of the southern Great Plains (the GPLLJ) of the U.S. is primarily a nocturnal phenomenon that virtually vanishes during the daylight hours, it is one of the most persistent and stable climatological features of the low-level continental flow during the warm-season months, May through August. We have used significant-level data to validate the skill of the GEOS-1 Data Assimilation System (DAS) in realistically detecting this jet and inferring its structure and evolution. We have then carried out a 15-year reanalysis with the GEOS-1 DAS to determine its climatology and mean diurnal cycle and to study its interannual variability. Interannual anomalies of the meridional flow associated with the GPLLJ are much smaller than the mean diurnal fluctuations, than random intraseasonal anomalies, and than the mean wind itself. There are three maxima of low-level meridional flow variance over the Great Plains and the Gulf of Mexico: a 1.2 m2 s-2 peak over the southeast Texas, to the east and south of the mean velocity peak, a 1.0 m2 s-2 peak over the western Gulf of Mexico, and a .8 m2 s-2 peak over the upper Great Plains (UGP), near the Nebraska/South Dakota border. Each of the three variance maxima corresponds to a spatially coherent, jet-like pattern of low-level flow interannual variability. There are also three dominant modes of interannual variability corresponding to the three variance maxima, but not in a simple one-to-one relationship. Cross-sectional profiles of mean southerly wind over Texas remain relatively stable and recognizable from year to year with only its eastward flank showing significant variability. This variability, however, exhibits a distinct, biennial oscillation during the first six to seven years of the reanalysis period and only then. This intermittent biennial oscillation (IBO, one of the three modes discussed in the previous paragraph) in the lowlevel flow is restricted to the region surrounding eastern Texas and is also evident in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set from about 1978 to 1985 or 1986 and again from 1995 to 2000. It is evident as well in surface pressure in both the GEOS-1 and NCEP/NCAR sets. The interannual anomalies do not necessarily persist uniformly throughout an entire season, but can fluctuate from one part of the season to the next. To estimate the characteristic sub-seasonal time scales for coherence of these fluctuations, we have taken the weekly anomaly of low-level wind at each point of the domain from the climatological average for that given point and that given week of the season and computed the covariance of its fluctuations over all weeks and over all years with the weekly climatological anomaly of the meridional wind at each of the three reference points discussed above. The typical duration of a coherent interannual anomaly within a given warm season increases with decreasing latitude from 2 to 3 weeks over the UGP, to 6 to 7 weeks over eastern Texas. Coherence over the western Gulf of Mexico is intermediate between the two with a typical duration of 4 to 5 weeks. There appears to be evidence that the interannual anomalies over Texas the Gulf propagate to the UGP after a week and those over the Gulf propagate there after 2 to 3 weeks. There also appears to be some reverse propagation of interannual anomalies over the UGP to Texas and to the Gulf after a period of about one week. The interannual anomalies in southerly flow over eastern Texas seem to correlate well with interannual anomalies of surface temperature and (negative) ground wetness and over western Texas.

Helfand, H. M.↗
NASA NTRS2002

What Caused the August 2002 Catastrophic Floods in Central Europe?

The catastrophic August 2002 floods in central Europe followed very intense rains over a span of several days, reported over a large region. On Aug. 12 meteorological stations over an elongated swath, from the vicinity of Saltzburg (Austria) in the south to the vicinity of Berlin in the north, reported precipitation exceeding 100 mm/day. Synoptic analysis points to a jet streak in the mid-Atlantic. moving eastward, which reached Spain on about 9th of August. An understanding of the mechanism that ultimately produced the unprecedented rains was derived conveniently from the GEOS 3 Model developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Examining the scenarios of omega, we observe on Aug. 10, OOZ, a center of ascending vertical motions, stronger than 0.6 Pa/s at the 700 hPa level over the western Mediterranean. Advecting moist and warm air to higher levels from the near-ocean level, the center moved eastward, reaching the northern Adriatic on Aug. 11, OOZ, then continuing northeast to the regions where most intense precipitation was reported on Aug. 12. The omega at 850 hPa shows a closely similar pattern but especially interesting is the 850 omega pattern on Aug. 12, 12Z, which shows descending motions stronger than 0.4 Pa/s over the eastern Po Valley (northern Italy), and an elongated region of ascending motions stronger than 1.0 Pa/s coinciding in extent with the extreme-precipitation region on that day. At that time, the cyclone which formed over the Po Valley, was centered on eastern Czech Republic, producing on its western side these strong ascending motions over the precipitation region. The pattern of the surface-pressure lows provides further insight into the processes, and specifically, the Aug. 12,06Z map, shows a 996 mb low over the western Czech Republic. The flooding following the extreme rains was acerbated by the fact that river-channels were made narrower over the recent decades by the urbanization of river banks.

Otterman, J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Tropical Warm Pool Surface Heat Budgets and Temperature: Contrasts Between 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-99 La Nina

Seasonal and interannual variations of the net surface heating F(sub NET) and sea surface temperature tendency (T(sub s)/dt) in the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans are studied. The surface heat fluxes are derived from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager and Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite radiance measurements for the period October 1997-September 2000. It is found that the magnitude of solar heating is lager than that of evaporative cooling, but the spatial variation of the latter is significantly large than the former. As a result, the spatial variations of seasonal and interannual variability of F(sub NET), follow closely that of evaporative cooling. Seasonal variations of F(sub NET) and T(sub s)/dt are significantly correlated, except for the equatorial western Pacific. The high correlation is primarily attributable to high correlation between seasonal cycles of solar heating and T(sub s)/dt. The change of F(sub NET) between 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-99 La Nina is significantly larger in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean than tropical western Pacific. For the former region, the reduced evaporative cooling arising from weakened winds during the El Nino is generally associated with enhanced solar heating due to decreased cloudiness, and thus increases the interannual variability of F(sub NET). For the latter region, the reduced evaporative cooling due to weakened winds is generally associated with but exceeds the reduced solar heating arising from increased cloudiness, and vise versa. Thus the interannual variability of F(sub NET) is reduced due to this offsetting effect. Interannual variations of F(sub NET) and T(sub s)/dt have very low correlation. This is most likely related to interannual variability of ocean dynamics, which includes the variations of solar radiation penetrating through oceanic mixed layer, upwelling of cold thermocline water, Indonesian throughflow for transporting heat from the Pacific to Indian Ocean, and interhemispheric transport in the Indian Ocean.

Chou, Shu-Hsien↗