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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

On the Prediction of Surface Melt Over the Greenland Ice Sheet at NWP and S2S Timescales

Greenland surface melt “events” – encompassing large swaths of the ice sheet over approximately 4-10 day periods – have occurred with increasing frequency in the 21st Century. Surface processes are significant to the ice sheet’s overall contribution to sea level. In addition, the sudden onset of widespread surface melt produces hazardous conditions for researchers and for communities adjacent to the ice sheet. The mechanisms producing melt events, their associated large-scale forcing, and timescales of interest are highly variable and poorly understood. Here we examine the predictability of melt events in a numerical weather prediction system (NWP) and a subseasonal-to-seasonal system (S2S). The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office forward processing (GMAO-FP) is an NWP system that incorporates an evolving, global hybrid 4D ensemble–variational (4DEnVar) data assimilation system and a state-of-the-art model that is run twice-daily with forecasts out to five and ten days. The GMAO S2S system is a hindcast-anomaly, coupled-model prediction system initialized with an atmospheric analysis, and in situ and satellite ocean data assimilation. Both systems represent ice sheet surface hydrology and snowpack processes. We examine the performance of the systems over the period 2018-2023, a span that includes approximately nine significant events, against analyses and satellite-derived melt extent. In addition to extent, we examine related conditions and their role in the melt forecast, including the onset of both omega and Rex atmospheric blocking patterns, sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, water vapor transport, precipitation, and surface preconditioning. We further examine the tendency for false-alarm events in each system and assess reasons for the forecast performance. North Atlantic atmospheric blocking patterns leading to surface melt are well forecast by the NWP system out to around eight days, while the S2S system generally underestimates the magnitude of such events at monthly lead times. These systems suggest that while short term forecasts of ice sheet melt and melt events are relatively robust, S2S predictions of surface conditions are highly dependent on the ability of a coupled system to generate the short-term atmospheric conditions associated with surface melt events.

Richard Cullather↗

NASA NTRS2017

Hydrological Modeling of the Jezero Crater Outlet-Forming Flood

Abundant evidence exists for lakes on Mars both from orbital observations [e.g., 1-3] and in situ exploration [e.g., 4-5]. These lakes can be divided into two classes: those that were hydrologically closed, so their source valley(s) terminated at the basin [3], and those that were hydrologically open, where there was sufficient flow from inlet valley(s) to cause the lake to breach and form an outlet valley [2]. It is easier to be confident from orbital data alone that a standing body of water must have existed in open basins, because there is no other way for their perched outlet valleys to form. The majority of basins fed by valley networks, rather than by isolated inlet valleys, are open [6], with some important exceptions (e.g., Gale Crater). Jezero crater (Fig. 1) is one of the most well-studied open basin paleolakes on Mars, with a breach that re-mains well above the lowest part of the crater floor, and two sedimentary fans at its northwestern margin that are likely deltaic in origin [7-9]. CRISM observations of these sediments indicate they host a variety of alteration minerals [9-11], including smectite and carbonate, and both the mineralogy of the sediments and their settings suggest they have a strong potential for preserving organic materials [10]. As a result, Jezero is a strong candidate landing site for the Mars 2020 rover. Approximate formative discharges have been estimated for its well-preserved western fan (Q approximately 500m3/s) [7], but to our knowledge, no estimates for the dis-charges associated with formation and incision of its outlet valley have been presented. Indeed, only a few studies [e.g., 12-14] have attempted to reconstruct the formation of outlet breaches broadly similar to Jezero anywhere on Mars, despite the apparent commonality of basins with large outlets [e.g., 2]. The outlet valley formed as a dam breach when the lake overflowed. In such an event, the growth and incision of the breach is directly coupled to flood discharge. In the case of Jezero, the discharge through the breach eventually lacked the energy needed to erode through the dam further, preventing complete drainage of the lake. After the initial flood, further incision can take place if additional water flows into, and thus out of, the hydrologically open lake, though the rate of this erosion occurs under more typical fluvial conditions. Despite this qualitative understanding of the process, it is useful to explore numerically what range of model parameters are potentially consistent with obser-vations of the outlet. We ultimately seek to address questions that include: (1) What was the flood hydro-graph?, (2) What sediment transport processes were involved and what can we infer about the erosion process? (3) Can most or all of the Jezero outlet's morphology be explained as a consequence of catastrophic formation, or is additional longer-term erosion required?

geology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of an Optimal Variable-Pitch Controller for Floating Axial-Flow Marine Hydrokinetic Turbines

This article discusses the development of an optimal variable-pitch controller for floating, axial-flow marine turbines. Recently, OpenFAST, an open-source wind turbine modeling tool, has been extended to model marine turbines. A controller is necessary to simulate marine turbines for different load cases using OpenFAST, which greatly impacts the performance of the energy system. Previous studies have designed controllers using a linearized model of the marine turbine, which can be time-consuming and require the expertise of a control engineer. In this study, we use an automated approach that uses generic models of the marine turbine to identify the controller gains, which can expedite the process of designing a controller. Using an optimizer to identify the control system parameters can additionally improve the controller's performance. The optimal controller tuned using such an approach results in a 20% reduction in the tower-base damage equivalent loading and better tracking of the rated generator speed and power.

axial flow↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integrated GW Farm ABM

This Data Repository includes data used for the integrated groundwater- farm ABM model, raw model output from scenario ensemble, and processed outputs that isolate the groundwater storage depletion outcomes for the 35,000 farm cells. Model Inputs: Farm ABM Inputs: This folder contains the input data used by the integrated groundwater - farm ABM modelling script (Python file) used for the high performance computing (HPC) experiments. The sub-folder "data inputs" contains all of the farm attribute data, while the three files in the folder have the hydrogeological data lookup table (NLDAS Cost Curve Attributes.csv), a lookup table (Theis well function table.csv) for the groundwater cost curve function, and the farm indexes and corresponding NLDAS ids for all of the cells run in this experiment (nldas farms subset final.csv). NLDAS Cost curve hydrogeological data: Hydrogeological data aggregated to 1/8 degree resolution and aligned with the NLDAS grid. Parameters include: water depth below ground surface [meters], subsurface porosity [unitless], aquifer depth from ground surface to aquifer bottom [meters], annual average recharge (USGS: mm, Doll: meters), and three different hydraulic conductivity (K) values (meters/day). The three K values represent the mean value from Gleeson et al. (2018), one standard deviation above the mean from Gleeson et al. (2018), and the de Graaf et al. 2020 modifications to certain lithologies. Additional information about these datasets and their processing are documented in the supplement to Yoon et al. 2025 (in review). Output: Raw outputs: This folder contains a .zip file that has model outputs for the entire scenario ensemble. There is one csv for each farm id, using the format "farm farmid cases.csv". The relationship between the farm id and NLDAS id is defined by the "nldas farms subset final.csv" located in the Farm ABM Inputs folder. Each csv has 625 rows, corresponding to 625 combinations of different scenario parameter values. Each row (scenario) represents the outcome of a 100 year simulation. Columns define scenario settings and summary statistics for each scenario. The first four columns define the scenario settings: "hydro ratio," "econ ratio," "K scenario," and "gamma scenario." The hydro and econ ratios are values passed to the modeling script that influence multipliers for other model parameters, as documented in the supplement to Yoon et al. 2025 (in review). The gamma multiplier is a coefficient multiplier applied to the baseline gamma values (values below 1 represent lower unobserved costs compared to baseline, values above 1 represent higher costs). The K scenario names represent K values of: "low": 0.5 m/d, "int 1": 2.5 m/d, "int 2": 10 m/d, "high": 50 m/d, and "gleeson": mean Gleeson K value. "Perc vol depleted" is the fraction of groundwater depleted at the end of the 100 simulation. Processed Output: Derived depletion outcomes from raw outputs: All of the individual csv files from the Raw outputs were aggregated into a single file that has the scenario settings and fraction depletion "Perc vol depleted" for every farm cell, for every scenario. The other two files define relationships between the farm id, NLDAS id, and local and major aquifer units, used for aquifer-level depletion analysis.

Agent based modeling↗

NASA NTRS1991

Current status and future developments in radar remote sensing

Some of the major initiatives and directions of remote sensing using SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) data alone and in conjunction with other sensors for Earth science investigations are outlined. Specific emphasis is on areas key to global monitoring using SAR data from spaceborne platforms: calibration, geophysical processing, and generation of digital elevation models. Calibration as used here encompasses end to end system characterization over the life of a sensor and characterization of data products relative to past and future sensors. Geophysical processing is defined here to include any processing which results in derived geophysical units. An additional data type, topography, which is required to complete the three dimensional view of surface properties and correct for distortions inherent in SAR is discussed. Future challenges in radar remote sensing include development of strategies to extrapolate from regional to global scale models and development of new sensor technology.

Evans, Diane L.↗

NASA NTRS2011

The VIIRS Ocean Data Simulator Enhancements and Results

The VIIRS Ocean Science Team (VOST) has been developing an Ocean Data Simulator to create realistic VIIRS SDR datasets based on MODIS water-leaving radiances. The simulator is helping to assess instrument performance and scientific processing algorithms. Several changes were made in the last two years to complete the simulator and broaden its usefulness. The simulator is now fully functional and includes all sensor characteristics measured during prelaunch testing, including electronic and optical crosstalk influences, polarization sensitivity, and relative spectral response. Also included is the simulation of cloud and land radiances to make more realistic data sets and to understand their important influence on nearby ocean color data. The atmospheric tables used in the processing, including aerosol and Rayleigh reflectance coefficients, have been modeled using VIIRS relative spectral responses. The capabilities of the simulator were expanded to work in an unaggregated sample mode and to produce scans with additional samples beyond the standard scan. These features improve the capability to realistically add artifacts which act upon individual instrument samples prior to aggregation and which may originate from beyond the actual scan boundaries. The simulator was expanded to simulate all 16 M-bands and the EDR processing was improved to use these bands to make an SST product. The simulator is being used to generate global VIIRS data from and in parallel with the MODIS Aqua data stream. Studies have been conducted using the simulator to investigate the impact of instrument artifacts. This paper discusses the simulator improvements and results from the artifact impact studies.

Robinson, Wayne D.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Additive Manufacturing (AM) for Propulsion Component and System Applications

NASA MSFC is developing several areas of additive manufacturing (AM) for propulsion component and system applications. These developments include new AM process and material development, large-scale AM pathfinder component fabrication and hot-fire testing, AM-centric design methodology, modeling and simulation, post-processing advancements, and new design applications of AM in aerospace. Some specific areas NASA has focused is the development and commercial infusion of AM supply chain for materials such as copper-alloy GRCop (Cu-Cr-Nb), Hydrogen-resistant alloys (NASA HR-1, JBK-75), refractory-based alloys (C-103, W, Mo, new formulations), and bimetallic and multi-metallic AM processes. Additional efforts have been focused on large scale AM demonstrating complex thin-wall structures up to 60” diameter using directed energy deposition. Material characterization, properties and component hot-fire testing has been completed using many of these newly developed AM alloys/processes. NASA has also focused on improvements to post-processing including powder removal, surface enhancements, and support removal to further realize cost and schedule benefits to the overall supply chain. These developments are part of the NASA Rapid Analysis and Manufacturing Propulsion Technology (RAMPT), Low Cost Upper Stage Propulsion (LCUSP) and Long Life Additive Manufacturing (LLAMA) projects, in addition to internal IRAD, and external collaborations.

Additive Manufacturing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Two Community Noise Models Applied to a NASA Urban Air Mobility Concept Vehicle

Predictions of community noise exposure from a NASA urban air mobility (UAM) concept vehicle have been conducted for representative operations using the FAA Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) in order to demonstrate modeling tool interoperability and assess applicability, capabilities and limitations of integrated noise modeling tools. To both quantify limitations and highlight other capabilities, a comparative analysis is performed using a time-domain simulation method, in particular, using the Volpe Advanced Acoustic Model (AAM). Using the same source noise model, the 3D directivity of a UAM concept vehicle is predicted in terms of aeroacoustic pressure time histories at a sphere of observer positions near the vehicle. In addition to distilling those data to a set of noise-power-distance data for input to AEDT, the data are processed preserving spectral directivity, into one-third and one-twelfth octave bands for input to AAM. Results from AEDT and AAM modeling are provided for a variety of metrics to demonstrate the effect that source noise directivity and propagation modeling fidelity have on predicted results at receptors over a study area.

urban air mobility↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Two Community Noise Models Applied to a NASA Urban Air Mobility Concept Vehicle

urban air mobility↗

NASA NTRS2017

Climate Data Guide - Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2)

The Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) is a global atmospheric reanalysis produced by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). It spans the satellite observing era from 1980 to the present. The goals of MERRA-2 are to provide a regularly-gridded, homogeneous record of the global atmosphere, and to incorporate additional aspects of the climate system including trace gas constituents (stratospheric ozone), and improved land surface representation, and cryospheric processes. MERRA-2 is also the first satellite-era global reanalysis to assimilate space-based observations of aerosols and represent their interactions with other physical processes in the climate system. The inclusion of these additional components are consistent with the overall objectives of an Integrated Earth System Analysis (IESA). MERRA-2 is intended to replace the original MERRA product, and reflects recent advances in atmospheric modeling and data assimilation. Modern hyperspectral radiance and microwave observations, along with GPS-Radio Occultation and NASA ozone datasets are now assimilated in MERRA-2. Much of the structure of the data files remains the same in MERRA-2. While the original MERRA data format was HDF-EOS, the MERRA-2 supplied binary data format is now NetCDF4 (with lossy compression to save space).

MERRA-2↗

DOE OSTI2026

Solvent-mediated contaminant removal from plastic waste using thermodynamic modeling

Plastics recycling is hindered by the compositional complexity of plastic waste, which can include numerous polymer components as well as low concentrations of additives and non-intentionally added substances. These latter small-molecule species, which we collectively refer to as contaminants, can harm human health and will build up in recycled plastic causing environmental and downstream processing challenges if not removed. In this work, we present molecular modeling approaches using the COnductor-like Screening MOdel for Real Solvents (COSMO-RS) to guide the selection of solvents that are capable of removing targeted contaminants from plastic waste. By considering the thermodynamic partitioning of contaminant species between a solvent phase and polymer phase, we identify guidelines for solvent selection to promote either the low-temperature extraction of contaminants from plastic waste or the removal of contaminants as part of a dissolution-based plastics recycling process. We present four case studies to illustrate the application of the computational approach to the removal of brominated flame retardants, phthalates, and selected perfluoroalkyl substances, and compare to both literature and newly collected experimental data to illustrate model prediction accuracy. Furthermore, the case studies highlight the capability of the modeling approach to help design recycling processes that explicitly account for contaminant removal, thereby increasing product purity during dissolution-based recycling or facilitating chemical recycling of contaminant-free plastics.

Zhou, Panzheng [University of, Wisconsin, Madison,↗

NASA NTRS2010

Speech Acquisition and Automatic Speech Recognition for Integrated Spacesuit Audio Systems

A voice-command human-machine interface system has been developed for spacesuit extravehicular activity (EVA) missions. A multichannel acoustic signal processing method has been created for distant speech acquisition in noisy and reverberant environments. This technology reduces noise by exploiting differences in the statistical nature of signal (i.e., speech) and noise that exists in the spatial and temporal domains. As a result, the automatic speech recognition (ASR) accuracy can be improved to the level at which crewmembers would find the speech interface useful. The developed speech human/machine interface will enable both crewmember usability and operational efficiency. It can enjoy a fast rate of data/text entry, small overall size, and can be lightweight. In addition, this design will free the hands and eyes of a suited crewmember. The system components and steps include beam forming/multi-channel noise reduction, single-channel noise reduction, speech feature extraction, feature transformation and normalization, feature compression, model adaption, ASR HMM (Hidden Markov Model) training, and ASR decoding. A state-of-the-art phoneme recognizer can obtain an accuracy rate of 65 percent when the training and testing data are free of noise. When it is used in spacesuits, the rate drops to about 33 percent. With the developed microphone array speech-processing technologies, the performance is improved and the phoneme recognition accuracy rate rises to 44 percent. The recognizer can be further improved by combining the microphone array and HMM model adaptation techniques and using speech samples collected from inside spacesuits. In addition, arithmetic complexity models for the major HMMbased ASR components were developed. They can help real-time ASR system designers select proper tasks when in the face of constraints in computational resources.

Huang, Yiteng↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Evolution of the Impact Evidence Library Methods – What We Learned

During fiscal years 2020-2022 NASA’s Human Research Program, Exploration Medical Capability Element has worked to source this evidence for the model. During the process several lessons learned have been identified and drive recommendations for future efforts. The ICL 1.0: Spaceflight Medical Operational expertise should be consulted regarding the addition of future conditions. A clinician experienced with the nuances of spaceflight is recommended to have a minimum of 20 hours per condition to adequately source the evidence. Condition definitions should be carefully crafted to maintain mutual exclusivity. Common side effects from medications, common and consequential incidental findings in laboratory studies, and consequential side effects of diagnostic and procedural capabilities should be considered for inclusion as unique conditions in future iterations of the ICL 1.0. Incidence: Spaceflight incidence, although based on small population sizes, is the gold standard. Terrestrial incidence should be applied cautiously. Probability of minor vs. severe cases of the condition: Data informing severity probability of the medical condition are nearly always terrestrial. Special attention should be paid to this metric as it drives outcomes in the model and terrestrial data often overestimate severity of expected cases in spaceflight. Condition duration: Three clinical phases currently exist in the model. They represent the time necessary for diagnosis, treatment/convalescence/recurrence, and the remaining duration of the mission after maximal recovery, respectively. Further subdivision of acute and convalescent treatment/recurrence is recommended. Probability of need for evacuation: Surrogates for “Return to Definitive Care” were chosen prior to data collection. In most cases these surrogates were “need for hospitalization” or “need for surgery.” For many conditions these may not be realistic drivers of “Return to Definitive Care” and should be re-examined. Probability of Crew Mortality: Terrestrial mortality data is difficult to apply to astronauts who, invariably, have less comorbidities than terrestrial subjects. It must be applied judiciously. The proportion of mission tasks impaired by the condition: “Task Impairment” was assigned to each condition prior to the condition duration data becoming available. Future efforts should assign Task Impairment as the final step in sourcing the evidence.

A.J. Kreykes↗

NASA NTRS2015

Characterizing Young Giant Planets with the Gemini Planet Imager: An Iterative Approach to Planet Characterization

After discovery, the first task of exoplanet science is characterization. However experience has shown that the limited spectral range and resolution of most directly imaged exoplanet data requires an iterative approach to spectral modeling. Simple, brown dwarf-like models, must first be tested to ascertain if they are both adequate to reproduce the available data and consistent with additional constraints, including the age of the system and available limits on the planet's mass and luminosity, if any. When agreement is lacking, progressively more complex solutions must be considered, including non-solar composition, partial cloudiness, and disequilibrium chemistry. Such additional complexity must be balanced against an understanding of the limitations of the atmospheric models themselves. For example while great strides have been made in improving the opacities of important molecules, particularly NH3 and CH4, at high temperatures, much more work is needed to understand the opacity of atomic Na and K. The highly pressure broadened fundamental band of Na and K in the optical stretches into the near-infrared, strongly influencing the spectral shape of Y and J spectral bands. Discerning gravity and atmospheric composition is difficult, if not impossible, without both good atomic opacities as well as an excellent understanding of the relevant atmospheric chemistry. I will present examples of the iterative process of directly imaged exoplanet characterization as applied to both known and potentially newly discovered exoplanets with a focus on constraints provided by GPI spectra. If a new GPI planet is lacking, as a case study I will discuss HR 8799 c and d will explain why some solutions, such as spatially inhomogeneous cloudiness, introduce their own additional layers of complexity. If spectra of new planets from GPI are available I will explain the modeling process in the context of understanding these new worlds.

exoplanets↗

DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging prior mean models for faster Bayesian optimization of particle accelerators

Tuning particle accelerators is a challenging and time-consuming task that can be automated and carried out efficiently using suitable optimization algorithms, such as model-based Bayesian optimization techniques. One of the major advantages of Bayesian algorithms is the ability to incorporate prior information about beam physics and historical behavior into the model used to make control decisions. In this work, we examine incorporating prior accelerator physics information into Bayesian optimization algorithms by utilizing fast executing, neural network models trained on simulated or historical datasets as prior mean functions in Gaussian process models. We show that in ideal cases, this technique substantially increases convergence speed to optimal solutions in high-dimensional tuning parameter spaces. Additionally, we demonstrate that even in non-ideal cases, where prior models of beam dynamics do not exactly match experimental conditions, the use of this technique can still enhance convergence speed. Finally, we demonstrate how these methods can be used to improve optimization in practical applications, such as transferring information gained from beam dynamics simulations to online control of the LCLS injector, and transferring knowledge gained from experimental measurements across different operating modes, such as accelerating different ion species at the ATLAS heavy ion accelerator.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Digital-Twin-Enabling Technologies for Online Condition Monitoring of Nuclear Power Plant Components

Online condition monitoring is an area of active research that may enable optimized scheduling, maintenance, and safety of nuclear power plant components, reducing unnecessary derates while simultaneously improving operational capacity. Digital twins (DTs) are one avenue to conduct online condition monitoring and are currently being explored by national laboratories and universities alike. DTs for online condition monitoring are, in essence, state concurrent models that emulate a physical process which predicts a parameter and compares it against a measured value. A DT’s goal is to provide additional insights by combining and interpreting various sources of information for preventative maintenance scheduling optimization or early fault detection. DTs for condition monitoring are projected to be valuable for meeting requirements under 10 CFR 50.55a, “Codes and Standards,” and 10 CFR 50.65, “Requirements for Monitoring the Effectiveness of Maintenance at Nuclear Power Plants”. However, DT technologies are still under significant development, and the process for developing a DT for condition monitoring has not been formalized. Therefore, in this work, we present an initial framework for developing a DT, discuss and review the various challenges and considerations for DT deployment, and identify the opportunities that a DT can improve. The presented framework is intended to help developers formulate a strategy when approaching DT development for condition monitoring. In conclusion, a DT use case for a reactor coolant pump is presented to demonstrate the proposed framework.

advanced sensor instrumentation↗

NASA NTRS1986

On the flight dynamics of aeroelastic vehicles

The nonlinear equations of motion for an elasic airplane are developed from first principles. Lagrange's Equation and the Principle of Virtual Work are used to generate the equations of motion and strip theory is then employed to obtain closed form integral expressions for the generalized forces. The inertial coupling is minimized by appropriate choice of the body reference axes and by making use of free vibration modes of the body. In addition, particular attention is paid to the simplifying assumptions used during the development of the equations of motion. A unique aspect of this modeling process is that since the generalized aerodynamic forces are determined from closed form, analytic expressions, this method can be used to gain insight into the effects of parameter variations not easily obtained from numerical models. A numerical example is also presented in which the modeling method is applied to a representative elastic aircraft. The model is used to address the effects of aerodynamic coupling which occurs between the rigid body degrees of freedom and the elastic degrees of freedom. Finally, model simplification is addressed and two methods are evaluated. The resulting frequency responses are compared.

Schmidt, D. K.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Thermospheric production of O(1S) by dissociative recombination of vibrationally excited O2(+)

High spectral resolution line profiles at 5577 A of the nighttime, F-region O(1S) emission measured by the Fabry-Perot interferometer on board the Dynamics Explorer satellite are analyzed using a continuous O(1S) relaxation model. The model is an improvement over the previous model of Killeen and Hays (1981) in that energy loss via elastic collision is considered in addition to the single collision, excitation exchange thermalization process. The results show that the active channel for O(1S) production is capture into the 1Sigma(+)u repulsive state of O2 and that the main contributor to its production is the dissociative recombination of O2(+) ions in vibrational levels v = 1 and 2 in agreement with the quantal calculations of Guberman (1983).

Yee, Jeng-Hwa↗