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At least 685 records · Page 38

Bayesian Calibration of Nuclear Graphite Property Models Accounting for Model Inadequacy and Impacts on Component Performance

Nuclear-grade structural graphite is extensively utilized in the core designs of various advanced nuclear reactors. In the reactor environment, graphite is subjected to prolonged exposure to extreme conditions, including high temperatures, radiation, and potentially molten salt and oxygen. Such exposure can induce several degradation mechanisms in graphite, including nonuniform volumetric strains caused by irradiation and thermal expansion, leading to stresses that may compromise the performance of graphite components. Assessing component integrity requires accurate models of graphite's thermomechanical response. This report documents the Bayesian calibration of thermomechanical properties for nuclear-grade graphite and their application to graphite component modeling and simulation using the Grizzly code. As part of this work, uncertainty-quantified models were developed for the elastic modulus, coefficient of thermal expansion, irradiation-induced dimensional change, and irradiation-induced creep for graphite grades IG-110, NBG-18, NBG-17, PCEA, and 2114. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, multiple experimental data sources were combined to develop Gaussian process models for the properties. Using the Kennedy O'Hagan framework, the uncertainties due to inadequacies in the model and the inherent spread in the experimental data were quantified for three different models. These uncertainty-quantified models, with a model-form correction, were subsequently applied to a coupled-physics simulation of representative graphite components, revealing that the uncertainties have a large impact on the components' deformation.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Stress Birth and Death: Disruptive Computational Mechanics and Novel Diagnostics for Fluid-to-Solid Transitions

Many materials of interest to Sandia transition from fluid to solid or have regions of both phases coexisting simultaneously. Currently there are, unfortunately, no material models that can accurately predict this material response. This is relevant to applications that "birth stress" related to geoscience, nuclear safety, manufacturing, energy production and bioscience. Accurately capturing solidification and residual stress enables fully predictive simulations of the evolving front shape or final product. Accurately resolving flow of proppants or blood could reduce environmental impact or lead to better treatments for heart attacks, thrombosis, or aneurism. We will address a science question in this proposal: When does residual stress develop during the critical transition from liquid to solid and how does it affect material deformation? Our hypothesis is that these early phases of stress development are critical to predictive simulation of material performance, net shape, and aging. In this project, we use advanced constitutive models with yield stress to represent both fluid and solid behavior simultaneously. The report provides an abbreviated description of the results from our LDRD "Stress Birth and Death: Disruptive Computational Mechanics and Novel Diagnostics for Fluid-to-Solid Transitions," since we have written four papers that document the work in detail and which we reference. We give highlights of the work and describe the gravitationally driven flow visualization experiment on a model yield stress fluid, Carbopol, at various concentrations and flow rates. We were able to collapse the data on a single master curve by showing it was self-similar. We also describe the Carbopol rheology and the constitutive equations of interest including the Bingham-Carreau-Yasuda model, the Saramito model, and the HB-Saramito model including parameter estimation for the shear and oscillatory rheology. We present several computational models including the 3D moving mesh simulations of both the Saramito models and Bingham-Carreau-Yasuda (BCY) model. We also show results from the BCY model using a 3D level set method and two different ways of handling reduced order Hele-Shaw modeling for generalized Newtonian fluids. We present some first ever two-dimensional results for the modified Jeffries Kamani-Donley-Rogers constitutive equation developed during this project. We include some recent results with a successful Saramito-level set coupling that allows us to tackle problems with complex geometries like mold filling in a thin gap with an obstacle, without the need for remeshing or remapping. We report on some experiments for curing systems where fluorescent particles are used to track material flow. These experiments were carried out in an oven on Sylgard 184 as a model polymerizing system. We conclude the report with a summary of accomplishments and some thoughts on follow-on work.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Dynamic Probabilistic Safety Assessment Studies for Advanced Reactor Using RAVEN

Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is used extensively to evaluate the risks associated with complex engineering systems like Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Current PSA models are based on the Event-Tree/Fault-Tree (ET/FT) methodology. ET and FT models are static and are based on Boolean logic approaches. In the past, concerns have been raised in the literature regarding the capability of the traditional static modelling approaches to adequately account for the impact of process, hardware, software, firmware and human interactions on the stochastic system behaviour. To overcome the limitations of the traditional approach to PSA, several dynamic PSA methodologies have been proposed. One of the dynamic PSA methodologies used for dynamic evaluations is Dynamic Event Tree (DET) framework which can be used to assess the impact of the parameter variability and scenario dynamics on the PSA model for the initiating event. The DET framework couples the stochastic model (number of component/trains that start on demand, operator action timing, etc.) with a Thermal-Hydraulic (TH) model of the plant. This paper explores the use of DET along with a case study on advanced reactor. The initiating event selected for the study was Class IV power supply failure event. The TH analysis considering uncertainty in various parameters was performed using RELAP5 and Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENvironment (RAVEN) tool. Based on the uncertainty analysis, it is concluded that the peak clad temperatures (PCT) are within the limits in all the code runs implying a high-degree of safety margin. However, variation in time to reach the PCT was observed among the code runs and the mean time to reach the PCT was found to be around 8590sec (approximately 2.4 hours). Hence, sufficient time margin is available for human intervention and the operator might have a relatively stress-free state during such an accident scenario. Due to the static nature of the traditional PSA models, the safety margin available was lesser, whereas, with the help of dynamic PSA models, one can demonstrate that the actual available safety margin is more in the present case study and is valuable input from the design point of view.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Null Raychaudhuri: canonical structure and the dressing time

Abstract We initiate a study of gravity focusing on generic null hypersurfaces, non-perturbatively in the Newton coupling. We present an off-shell account of the extended phase space of the theory, which includes the expected spin-2 data as well as spin-0, spin-1 and arbitrary matter degrees of freedom. We construct the charges and the corresponding kinematic Poisson brackets, employing a Beltrami parameterization of the spin-2 modes. We explicitly show that the constraint algebra closes, the details of which depend on the non-perturbative mixing between spin-0 and spin-2 modes. Finally we show that the spin zero sector encodes a notion of a clock, called dressing time, which is dynamical and conjugate to the constraint. It is well-known that the null Raychaudhuri equation describes how the geometric data of a null hypersurface evolve in null time in response to gravitational radiation and external matter. Our analysis leads to three complementary viewpoints on this equation. First, it can be understood as a Carrollian stress tensor conservation equation. Second, we construct spin-0, spin-2 and matter stress tensors that act as generators of null time reparametrizations for each sector. This leads to the perspective that the null Raychaudhuri equation can be understood as imposing that the sum of CFT-like stress tensors vanishes. Third, we solve the Raychaudhuri constraint non-perturbatively. The solution relates the dressing time to the spin-2 and matter boost charge operators. Finally we establish that the corner charge corresponding to the boost operator in the dressing time frame is monotonic. These results show that the notion of an observer can be thought of as emerging from the gravitational degrees of freedom themselves. We briefly mention that the construction offers new insights into focusing conjectures.

Physics↗

Prediction of strain, inter-layer interaction and critical current in CORC ® wires under axial strain by T-A modeling

Superconducting conductors on round core (CORC ® ) cables and wires can meet the needs of large high-field magnets, such as particle accelerators and compact nuclear fusion machines, due to their simple cabling process, high current-carrying capacity and reliable operation under high mechanical stresses. Many high-field magnets require CORC ® cables to carry a current of thousands of amperes in a background magnetic field exceeding 20 T. As a result, the large electromagnetic forces will deform the cable in the axial direction due to hoop stress and in the transverse direction by compressive stress. Therefore, it is essential to determine the irreversible deformation limit of the CORC ® cable under axial tensile load and optimize the cabling parameters to potentially extend this limit. Analytical and numerical methods are developed to assess the performance degradation of CORC ® wires under axial tensile load. The strain level, interlayer contact pressure and friction and their impact on the critical current are calculated by combining the mechanical response and the T-A method. Analyzing the results shows that the winding angle of the tape and the Poisson’s ratio of the inner core are key factors affecting the irreversible tensile strain limit of CORC ® wires. The smaller the winding angle and the higher the Poisson’s ratio of the inner core, the higher the irreversible tensile strain limit. For multi-layer CORC ® wires, the initial contact pressure caused by the cabling process must also be considered. The inter-layer interaction is coupled with the tape strain of each layer. The results of this research can serve as a basis for optimizing and designing CORC ® wires with extended irreversible strain limits.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Meshfree Multiphysics Damage Modeling of Li-ion Battery Materials

Through repeated charging and discharging cycles, the electrodes of a Li-ion battery experience significant swelling and contraction due to the movement of lithium, also known as intercalation. This research focuses specifically on the chemo-mechanical cracking in the cathode. Because cathode particles are comprised of many randomly-oriented grains, which have highly anisotropic material properties, the expansion and contraction is very non-uniform. As a result, stress concentrations tend to form between grains, which necessitates the modeling of crack propagation largely along grain boundaries and material interfaces. Chemo-mechanical damage models are generally simulated by one of two methods: the cohesive zone model (CZM) and the continuous damage model (CDM). The CZM is more accurate at capturing the sharp discontinuities of a crack but is very computationally expensive and intractable for large-scale models as a result. Conversely, the CDM is easily computed but not well-suited to easily allow for discontinuous field variables, which are inherent across a crack. This study aims to improve the CDM's ability to capture discontinuous cracks. Current versions of the CDM use the finite element method (FEM), which is one of the most widely used approaches for spatial discretization. This research investigates the use of the Reproducing Kernel Particle Method (RKPM), a meshfree method, for spatial discretization and aims to achieve a coupled chemo-mechanical crack propagation model that enhances accuracy while maintaining high computational efficiency. This model features a fully coupled, iterative electrochemistry solution, which informs the meshfree damage model of impending crack formation. To gain a better understanding of how the meshfree model compares to the current FEM model in capturing cathode crack propagation, further investigation is needed.

damage modeling↗

Tailoring the γ-γ'-γ" dual superlattice microstructure of INCONEL® 725 by high temperature aging and Nb/Ta additions for superior creep properties

Next-generation energy systems require superior resistance to creep deformation due to the considerably prolonged exposure times at operating stress and temperature. To improve the elevated temperature properties of INCONEL® 725 (IN725), a corrosion resistant alloy, several variants with different Ti/Al ratio and judicious amounts of Nb and Ta were made. Furthermore, a high temperature aging (HTA) heat treatment, designed to promote favorable precipitate phase formation, was explored. These adjustments allowed to tailor the amount and type of precipitate strengthening which led to significant increases in time to failure. The Ti/Al ratio was used to favor the formation of γ' or γ" precipitates. Compact morphology precipitates, consisting of γ' precipitates surrounded by a γ" shell, were formed in alloys with a low Ti/Al ratio. The HTA increased the creep life of various alloy formulations up to a maximum improvement of 371% as compared to the standard aging heat treatment. The Nb and Ta additions had a similar effect on increasing creep life by promoting and stabilizing γ" precipitation. The positive effect of the additions was even more pronounced when coupled with the HTA. A phase stability study with up to 10,000 h exposure at 700°C revealed that the compact morphology helped in slightly reducing coarsening of the γ' precipitates, although the effect on creep was not significant. The findings of this study enable design of dual superlattice alloys through microstructural engineering that yields superior performance and can be applied to a wide range of alloys in the IN718 and derivatives family.

Antonov, Stoichko↗

A spall and diffraction study of nanosecond pressure release across the iron ε-α phase boundary

The extreme response of polycrystalline iron at high pressures and high strain rates is revealed by means of high-power laser pulses. The compression portion of the pulse coupled with x-ray diffraction identifies the expected body-centered cubic (α) to hexagonal close packed (ε) displacive transformation. Upon release, observation shows that the complete reverse transformation takes approximately 8 ns and that the structure returns to its initial microstructural configuration, in a reversible transformation path. This is in good agreement with molecular dynamics (MD) simulations which predict an inverse dependence between transformation time and strain rate. The grain size is reduced from μm to nm range during compression and begins increasing back to the original grain size on decompression. The kinetics of the transition is dictated by heterogenous nucleation as it follows the Johnson-Mehl-Avrami-Kolmogorov equation with the appropriate time exponent of ~1. This is confirmed by MD simulations which also identify profuse twinning and dislocation generation. Here, the tensile pulse generated upon reflection at the free surface is captured by time-resolved free surface velocity measurements from which a peak tensile stress of 7 GPa is obtained, in stark contrast with its quasi-static value of ~200 MPa. At these strain rates, the strength of grain interiors, which is determined by twinning and slip exceeds the strength of the boundaries, and failure initiates preferentially in the latter.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Mechanically graded granular scaffolds for osteochondral tissue engineering

Engineered scaffolds designed to approximate the mechanical microenvironment of the osteochondral unit often address this complexity using discrete, two-phase architectures that introduce mechanical discontinuities and interfacial stress concentrations rather than a contiguous stiffness transition. To address this challenge, we created a photoannealed polyethylene glycol (PEG) granular scaffold with a spatially controlled stiffness gradient within a cell-permissive, macroporous architecture. Stiffness was dictated by photoannealing microgels using a photomask. We tuned void volume and available surface area by varying microgel diameter and tested how mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) interpret local mechanical environments. MSCs exhibited position-dependent differences in morphology, cytoskeletal structure, matrix deposition, and lineage-specific gene expression within the gradient scaffolds. Softer regions supported rounded cell morphology and deposition of a glycosaminoglycan-rich matrix, whereas stiffer regions promoted cell elongation, increased cytoskeletal tension, and expression of mineral-associated markers. Gradients formed from smaller microgels magnified these spatial responses by increasing cellular confinement and adhesion site availability. Disruption of actomyosin contractility eliminated these regional differences, demonstrating that MSCs rely on tension-dependent mechanotransduction to interpret the gradient. These findings reveal that coupling microgel architecture with continuous stiffness transitions provides a tractable platform to study multiscale mechanobiologic regulation and spatially guide osteochondral tissue formation.

Biological and medical sciences↗

Photothermal Atomic Force Microscopy Coupled with Infrared Spectroscopy (AFM-IR) Analysis of High Extinction Coefficient Materials: A Case Study with Silica and Silicate Glasses

Photothermal atomic force microscopy coupled with infrared spectroscopy (AFM-IR) brings significant value as a spatially resolved surface analysis technique for disordered oxide materials such as glasses, but additional development and fundamental understanding of governing principles is needed to interpret AFM-IR spectra, since the existing theory described for organic materials does not work for materials with high extinction coefficients for infrared (IR) absorption. This paper describes theoretical calculation of a transient temperature profile inside the IR-absorbing material considering IR refraction at the interface as well as IR adsorption and heat transfer inside the sample. Furthermore, this calculation explains the differences in peak positions and amplitudes of AFM-IR spectra from those of specular reflectance and extinction coefficient spectra. It also addresses the information depth of the AFM-IR characterization of bulk materials. AFM-IR applied to silica and silicate glass surfaces has demonstrated novel capability of characterizing subsurface structural changes and surface heterogeneity due to mechanical stresses from physical contacts, as well as chemical alterations manifested in surface layers through aqueous corrosion.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A Faster-Than-Real-Time Framework for Reliability-Oriented Simulation of PV Inverters

Physics-of-Failure (PoF) based reliability assessment for photovoltaic (PV) inverters requires long-duration electrical and electrothermal stress histories, yet generating such stress histories with high-fidelity switching models over year long mission profiles is computationally prohibitive. Conventional methods either sacrifice modeling fidelity for speed or require runtimes that are impractical for design iteration and uncertainty studies. To address this bottleneck, this paper presents a High-Performance Computing (HPC) based simulation frame work for faster-than-real-time reliability-oriented simulation. The proposed framework integrates the Average-to-Switching (A2S) method with parallel computing techniques to accelerate switching-level waveform reconstruction. We further introduce optimization strategies, including cluster merging and sensitivity based mission profile screening, to reduce the computational burden. Evaluated using real-world mission profile inputs and a MATLAB/Simulink switching-model reference, the framework reduces the simulation time for a one-year mission from an intractable multi-year duration to approximately 7.3 minutes while maintaining low waveform error. This acceleration provides a practical reliability-oriented simulation engine that can be coupled with component-specific aging models for subsequent PV inverter PoF assessment.

High-performance Computing↗

High-Precision Mapping of Diamond Crystal Strain Using Quantum Interferometry

Crystal-strain variation imposes significant limitations on many quantum sensing and information applications for solid-state defect qubits in diamond. Thus, the precision measurement and control of diamond crystal strain is a key challenge. Here, we report diamond strain measurements with a unique set of capabilities, including micron-scale spatial resolution, a millimeter-scale field of view, and a 2-order-of-magnitude improvement in volume-normalized sensitivity over previous work, reaching 5(2)×10 -8 /√Hzμm -3 (with spin-strain coupling coefficients representing the dominant systematic uncertainty). We use strain-sensitive spin-state interferometry on ensembles of nitrogen-vacancy (N-V) color centers in single-crystal bulk diamond with low strain gradients. This quantum interferometry technique provides insensitivity to magnetic-field inhomogeneity from the electronic and nuclear spin bath, thereby enabling long N-V–ensemble electronic spin dephasing times and enhanced strain sensitivity, as well as broadening the potential applications of the technique beyond isotopically enriched or high-purity diamond. We demonstrate the strain-sensitive measurement protocol first on a confocal scanning laser microscope, providing quantitative measurement of sensitivity as well as three-dimensional strain mapping; and second on a wide-field-imaging quantum diamond microscope. Our strain-microscopy technique enables fast, sensitive characterization for diamond material engineering and nanofabrication; as well as diamond-based sensing of strains applied externally, as in diamond anvil cells or embedded diamond stress sensors, or internally, as by crystal damage due to particle-induced nuclear recoils.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Summary of Methodology for Mitigating Risks Associated with Licensing and Qualifying AM Nuclear Materials

The US Department of Energy’s Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program focuses on accelerating the development, qualification, demonstration, and deployment of advanced materials and manufacturing technologies to enable reliable and economical nuclear energy. Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) is one of the most popular additive manufacturing (AM) processes for fabricating components with intrinsically complex geometries. LPBF was extensively explored for nuclear applications under the previous Transformational Challenge Reactor program. Additionally, Oak Ridge National Laboratory developed and licensed the Peregrine software and larger digital platform that couples machine learning and in situ data collection during AM to detect anomalies and any evolved defects. The digital platform will be critical to (1) the qualification of AM components for nuclear applications that link location-specific data to macroscopic properties and (2) predict final component performance. Current in situ process monitoring tools are valuable for observing the formation of stochastic flaws, but additional data are needed to predict the resulting microstructures and associated material performance. Rapid cooling rates and large thermal gradients have caused large heterogeneities in the microstructure, which cause anisotropy in mechanical performance. The AMMT program is evaluating the best approaches for addressing these heterogeneities and their effect on component performance using a combination of multiscale modeling, enhanced in situ process monitoring, and high throughput experimental testing. This report summarizes strategies for mitigating the risks associated with qualifying AM components, including developing new sensing capabilities for in situ process monitoring and characterizing melt pool solidification and residual stresses to inform multiscale modeling efforts.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Rapid activation of non-oriented mechanophores via shock loading and spallation

Mechanophores (MPs), stimuli-responsive molecules that respond chromatically to mechanochemical reactions, are important for understanding the coupling between mechanics and chemistry as well as in engineering applications. However, the atomic-level understanding of their activation originates from gas phase studies or under simple linear elongation forces directly on molecules or polymer chains containing MPs. The effect of many-body distortions, pervasive in condensed-phase applications, is not understood. Therefore, we performed large-scale molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of a poly(methyl methacrylate)-spiropyran copolymer under dynamic mechanical loading and studied the activation of the MP under various conditions from dynamical compression to tension during unloading. Detailed analysis of the all-atom MD trajectories shows that the MP blocks experience significant many-body intramolecular distortion that can significantly decrease the activation barrier as compared with when deformation rates are slow relative to molecular relaxation time scales. Here we find that the reactivity of MPs under material compression states is governed by many-body effects of intramolecular torsions, whereas under tension, the reactions are governed by tensile stresses.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Geomechanical in situ testing of fault reactivation in argillite repositories

Abstract. Pressurization of natural faults as a result of repository-induced effects can lead to their reactivation and permeability generation in case such features are present near disposal tunnels. Potential driving forces for such pressurization are the temperature increase caused by heat-producing high-level radioactive waste and the generation of hydrogen and other gases due to corrosion of engineered materials. We are primarily concerned about pressurization and fault activation in host rocks and faults that have very low natural permeability for pore pressure increases to dissipate, such as the argillite rocks currently investigated in Switzerland, France and other countries. This presentation discusses a series of in situ experiments of fault activation by fluid injection conducted in the argillite rock (Opalinus clay) at the Mont Terri underground research laboratory in Switzerland. A multi-model monitoring test bed was installed at Mont Terri that includes distributed fiber optics for strain, temperature, and acoustics; local fault pore pressure and three-dimensional displacement sensors; active seismic imaging; and passive seismic monitoring. The fault experiments (and their subsequent analysis via hydromechanical modeling) provide a new fundamental understanding of the coupling between pore pressure, fault deformation and permeability generation as a function of time and allow exploring how seismic and aseismic events may impact the integrity of faulted argillite host rock. Our experimental observations demonstrate that significant flow (and transport) can occur along the initially impermeable argillite fault when rupture is activated. However, the fault permeability decreases to almost its pre-activation value when fluid injection ceases and fluid pressure drops. Dilatant slip on the fault plane alone does not explain the observed increase in fault permeability; pressure-induced fault opening also plays a role, favored by the softness of the shale along with the fact that the structure of the fault zone prevents fluids from diffusing into the adjacent damage zone. Rupture initiation and permeability generation is initially aseismic, associated only with an increase in noise level and emerging tremors. Micro-earthquakes are initiated later in the experiments and typically occur away from the fluid-pressurized area. Hydromechanical models show that stress transferred from the initial aseismic deformation can build up to stress criticality and later induce seismic rupture. After presenting the experimental results, we will close the presentation with an outlook to future experimental campaigns using the fault test bed at Mont Terri. We are currently planning a controlled thermal stimulation of the fault, where instead of fluid injection as a trigger mechanism we will heat up the nearby rock volume and measure potential effects on fault stability. Lessons learned from our past and future experiments will help inform the safety assessment of geologic disposal in argillite host rock.

Birkholzer, Jens T.↗

Temperature- and Rate-Dependent Pathways in Formation of Metastable Silicon Phases under Rapid Decompression

High-pressure metallic beta-Sn silicon (Si-II), depending on temperature, decompression rate, stress, etc., may transform to diverse metastable forms with promising semiconducting properties under decompression. However, the underlying mechanisms governing the different transformation paths are not well understood. Here, two distinctive pathways, viz., a thermally activated crystal-crystal transition and a mechanically driven amorphization, were characterized under rapid decompression of Si-II at various temperatures using in situ time-resolved x-ray diffraction. Under slow decompression, Si-II transforms to a crystalline bc8/r8 phase in the pressure range of 4.3-9.2 GPa through a thermally activated process where the overdepressurization and the onset transition strain are strongly dependent on decompression rate and temperature. In comparison, Si-II collapses structurally to an amorphous form at around 4.3 GPa when the volume expansion approaches a critical strain via rapid decompression beyond a threshold rate. The occurrence of the critical strain indicates a limit of the structural metastability of Si-II, which separates the thermally activated and mechanically driven transition processes. The results show the coupled effect of decompression rate, activation barrier, and thermal energy on the adopted transformation paths, providing atomistic insight into the competition between equilibrium and nonequilibrium pathways and the resulting metastable phases.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Utah FORGE 5-2615: Thermo-poromechanical Response of Fractured Rock - Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Experimental Determination and Modeling-Informed Analysis of Thermo-poromechanical Response of Fractured Rock for Application to Utah FORGE project by the University of Oklahoma, presented by Dr. Ahmad Ghassemi, McCasland Chair Prof. The project objective is to improve understanding and control of coupled thermo-poromechanical (or thermo-hydro-mechanical- TPM) processes in reservoir development, and to study any role in interpretations of the fracture closure. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on September 8, 2023. The workshop provided a valuable opportunity to explore the progress made in each of the 17 Research and Development projects funded under Solicitation 2020-1 which aim to enhance our understanding of the crucial factors influencing the development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) reservoirs and resources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

A protocol for calculating basal melt rates in the ISMIP6 Antarctic ice sheet projections

Climate model projections have previously been used to compute ice shelf basal melt rates in ice sheet models, but the strategies employed – e.g., ocean input, parameterization, calibration technique, and corrections – have varied widely and are often ad hoc. Here, a methodology is proposed for the calculation of circum-Antarctic basal melt rates for floating ice, based on climate models, that is suitable for ISMIP6, the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). The past and future evolution of ocean temperature and salinity is derived from a climate model by estimating anomalies with respect to the modern day, which are added to a present-day climatology constructed from existing observational datasets. Temperature and salinity are extrapolated to any position potentially occupied by a simulated ice shelf. A simple formulation is proposed for a basal melt parameterization in ISMIP6, constrained by the observed temperature climatology, with a quadratic dependency on either the nonlocal or local thermal forcing. Two calibration methods are proposed: (1) based on the mean Antarctic melt rate (MeanAnt) and (2) based on melt rates near Pine Island's deep grounding line (PIGL). Future Antarctic mean melt rates are an order of magnitude greater in PIGL than in MeanAnt. The PIGL calibration and the local parameterization result in more realistic melt rates near grounding lines. PIGL is also more consistent with observations of interannual melt rate variability underneath Pine Island and Dotson ice shelves. This work stresses the need for more physics and less calibration in the parameterizations and for more observations of hydrographic properties and melt rates at interannual and decadal timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗