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DOE OSTI2024

Decision support for United States—Canada energy integration is impaired by fragmentary environmental and electricity system modeling capacity

The renewable energy transition is leading to increased electricity trade between the United States and Canada, with Canadian hydropower providing firm lower-carbon power and buffering variability of wind and solar generation in the U.S. However, long-term power purchase agreements and transborder transmission projects are controversial, with two of four proposed transmission lines between Quebec, Canada and the northeast U.S. cancelled since 2018. Here, we argue that controversies are exacerbated by a lack of open-source data and tools to understand tradeoffs of new hydropower generation and transmission infrastructure in comparison to alternatives. This gap includes impacts that incremental transmission and generation projects have on the economics of the entire system, for example, how new transmission projects affect exports to existing markets or incentivize new generation. We identify priority areas for data synthesis and model development, such as integrating linked hydropower and hydrologic interactions in energy system models and openly releasing (by utilities) or back-calculating (by researchers) hydropower generation and operational parameters. Publicly available environmental (e.g. streamflow, precipitation) and techno-economic (e.g. costs, reservoir size,) data can be used to parameterize freely usable and extensible models. Existing models have been calibrated with operational data from Canadian utilities that are not publicly available, limiting the range of scientific and commercial questions these tools have been used to answer and the range of parties that have been involved. Studies conducted using highly resolved, national-scale public data exist in other countries, notably, the United States, and demonstrate how greater transparency and extensibility can drive industry action. Improved data availability in Canada could facilitate approaches that (1) increase participation in decarbonization planning by a broader range of actors; (2) allow independent characterizations of environmental, health, and economic outcomes of interest to the public; and (3) identify decarbonization pathways consistent with community values.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Supporting Global Air Quality Management Needs With A Flexible Data Fusion Tool for Estimation and Forecasting in Google Earth Engine

High spatial and temporal resolution air quality estimation and forecasting can be enhanced by combining global data sources, like chemical transport models and satellite remote sensing, with local information from regulatory and low-cost air quality monitors. Successful integration of data from these diverse sources is complicated by many factors, however, including differences in spatial and temporal resolution, data availability and latency issues, varying data quality, and large computational and data storage requirements. This presentation will provide an overview of a NASA-funded effort to develop the foundation for future operationalization of air quality forecasting for world-wide end-users and integration into their air quality management decision processes, which will be achieved in future phases of this multi-year project. We will summarize our progress in developing a data fusion system using the Google Earth Engine platform which can integrate model, satellite, and surface-level monitoring datasets to enhance estimation and forecasting of air-quality-relevant pollutants at sub-daily and sub-city scales. The tool is being developed in close cooperation with several city- and regional-level air quality managers in the USA and around the world. Our end-goal is to provide these air quality managers with the information they need to assess and anticipate the impacts of poor air quality, track changes in air quality due to ongoing mitigation efforts and land use changes, and identify ways to improve their air quality monitoring strategies. This presentation will focus on recent advances achieved through the project, including integration of multiple air quality datasets in a prototype data fusion system in Google Earth Engine, the quantification of uncertainties associated with our data fusion approach, and the development of user interfaces and visualization tools to convey air quality information in a way which best meets end-user needs.

Carl Malings↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Supporting Global Air Quality Management Needs With A Flexible Data Fusion Tool for Estimation and Forecasting in Google Earth Engine

Carl Malings↗

DOE OSTI2017

Elucidation of complexity and prediction of interactions in microbial communities

Summary Microorganisms engage in complex interactions with other members of the microbial community, higher organisms as well as their environment. However, determining the exact nature of these interactions can be challenging due to the large number of members in these communities and the manifold of interactions they can engage in. Various omic data, such as 16S rRNA gene sequencing, shotgun metagenomics, metatranscriptomics, metaproteomics and metabolomics, have been deployed to unravel the community structure, interactions and resulting community dynamics in situ . Interpretation of these multi‐omic data often requires advanced computational methods. Modelling approaches are powerful tools to integrate, contextualize and interpret experimental data, thus shedding light on the underlying processes shaping the microbiome. Here, we review current methods and approaches, both experimental and computational, to elucidate interactions in microbial communities and to predict their responses to perturbations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Method for Groundwater-Level Mapping and Monitoring-Well Network Optimization at Hanford

This report summarizes the initial results and outcomes of a physics-informed, data-driven groundwater level (GWL) mapping capability for the Hanford Site. GWL mapping at Hanford is typically conducted annually and requires a significant amount of computational and expert resources, and it does not allow assessment of the informational value of specific monitoring wells. The proposed method produces spatially and temporally resolved fields consistent with sparse, irregularly sampled, and nonuniformly distributed well measurements. Implemented successfully, this capability will allow rapid mapping of groundwater levels and provide an opportunity to optimize monitoring activities (both location and sampling frequency) based on data information value evaluation. The approach integrates a diffusion-based generative model – trained on MODFLOW simulation data from the Plateau-to-River (P2R) model – with score-based data assimilation (SDA), allowing observation-conditioned mapping without retraining for each monitoring-network layout.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Global Methane Budget 2000-2012

The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (approximately biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modeling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations).For the 2003-2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by top-down inversions at 558 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 540-568. About 60 of global emissions are anthropogenic (range 50-65%). Since 2010, the bottom-up global emission inventories have been closer to methane emissions in the most carbon-intensive Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP8.5) and higher than all other RCP scenarios. Bottom-up approaches suggest larger global emissions (736 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 596-884) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the bottom-up approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from top-down emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (approximately 64% of the global budget, less than 30deg N) as compared to mid (approximately 32%, 30-60deg N) and high northern latitudes (approximately 4%, 60-90deg N). Top-down inversions consistently infer lower emissions in China (approximately 58 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 51-72, minus14% ) and higher emissions in Africa (86 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 73-108, plus 19% ) than bottom-up values used as prior estimates. Overall, uncertainties for anthropogenic emissions appear smaller than those from natural sources, and the uncertainties on source categories appear larger for top-down inversions than for bottom-up inventories and models. The most important source of uncertainty on the methane budget is attributable to emissions from wetland and other inland waters. We show that the wetland extent could contribute 30-40% on the estimated range for wetland emissions. Other priorities for improving the methane budget include the following: (i) the development of process-based models for inland-water emissions, (ii) the intensification of methane observations at local scale (flux measurements) to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scale (surface networks and satellites) to constrain top-down inversions, (iii) improvements in the estimation of atmospheric loss by OH, and (iv) improvements of the transport models integrated in top-down inversions. The data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (http://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GLOBAL_ METHANE_BUDGET_2016_V1.1) and the Global Carbon Project.

Saunois, Marielle↗

DOE OSTI2021

Genome-Scale Metabolic Modeling Enables In-Depth Understanding of Big Data

Genome-scale metabolic models (GEMs) enable the mathematical simulation of the metabolism of archaea, bacteria, and eukaryotic organisms. GEMs quantitatively define a relationship between genotype and phenotype by contextualizing different types of Big Data (e.g., genomics, metabolomics, and transcriptomics). In this review, we analyze the available Big Data useful for metabolic modeling and compile the available GEM reconstruction tools that integrate Big Data. We also discuss recent applications in industry and research that include predicting phenotypes, elucidating metabolic pathways, producing industry-relevant chemicals, identifying drug targets, and generating knowledge to better understand host-associated diseases. In addition to the up-to-date review of GEMs currently available, we assessed a plethora of tools for developing new GEMs that include macromolecular expression and dynamic resolution. Finally, we provide a perspective in emerging areas, such as annotation, data managing, and machine learning, in which GEMs will play a key role in the further utilization of Big Data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Progress Report on Model Development for the Transport of Aerosol through Microchannels

This report summarizes the current progress in the development of a phenomenological model of aerosol transport, deposition, and plugging through microchannels. The purpose is to introduce a generic, reliable numerical model for the prediction of aerosol transport, deposition, and plugging in leak paths while accounting for potential plugging formation, to a user community involving researchers, regulators, and industry. In that regard, a Graphical User Interface (GUI) was generated by integrating the individual MATLAB scripts that make up the model and adding additional features to aid the general understanding of the problem to a user. This report focuses on the model development and features included. Further, predictions from the GUI are compared with experimental data for validation. The strength of the GUI is the ability of a user to plug in basic parameters such as the initial pressure conditions and canister model specifications in order to obtain a first principal approximation of vital information such as the blowdown pressure differential, aerosol penetration, and deposition as a function of time. The user can obtain this without the know-how of the underlying MATLAB scripts and thus enables the model to be readily applied by regulators, industry, and shareholders to reduce the uncertainty in the off-site radiological consequences. The report also lists future tasks under this work scope. This includes ongoing efforts to include additional crack geometries (divergent and divergent-convergent slots) to the model; GUI development and improvement based on feedback from users, and integration of aerosol source term data from Sibling Pin tests into the model as we approach realistic canister stress corrosion cracking–induced aerosol release scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1975

Integration time required to extract accurate static and dynamic data from transonic wind-tunnel tests

Because the forces and pressures on wind-tunnel models tested at transonic speeds are not steady, even for 'static' aerodynamic tests, integration time is required to obtain data of acceptable accuracy. The integration time required for both static and dynamic tests is evaluated analytically and confirmed by experimental measurements. It is shown that, for static and dynamic tests, the accuracy obtained is a function of integration time, frequency content of the signal, and the ratio of the dynamic amplitude to the full signal of interest. In addition, for the dynamic case, the frequency band width used in analysis is important. Results of this study indicate that, for typical data accuracy desired from models in a large transonic wind tunnel (11- by 11-ft), up to the following integration times are required: static force and moment tests, 0.5 sec; static pressure tests, 0.1 sec; flutter tests, 30 to 60 sec; and random-dynamic tests, 10 sec.

Muhlstein, L., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cloud-based Testbed for Adaptive Under-Frequency Load Shedding with High DER Penetration

Increasing penetration of distributed energy resources and behind-the-meter renewables may soon disrupt the efficacy of critical protection schemes, such as under-frequency load shedding (UFLS). Improved data exchange and coordination across the transmission-distribution boundary will be required to maintain reliability of bulk electric system. Standards-based data integration platforms using agreed-upon semantic vocabularies, such as the Common Information Model, will be key to enabling adaptive protection schemes requiring synthesized data from both the bulk power system and behind-the-meter resources. This paper introduces a cloud-based open-source data integration environment and UFLS clustering algorithm being developed to enable adaptive relay coordination between transmission and distribution utilities in the state of Vermont.

Anderson, Alexander A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Performance Evaluation of Vertical Federated Machine Learning Against Adversarial Threats on Wide-Area Control System: Preprint

Federated machine learning (FL) is gaining significant popularity to develop cybersecurity solutions in power grids because of its advanced capability to support decentralized data handing at local devices, its privacy preservation, and its low-bandwidth requirement. However, the evolving adversarial machine learning (AML) threats raise significant concerns for the cybersecurity of FL architectures. The FL-based split neural network (SplitNN) achieves high performance through the decentralized training of local neural network models while preserving data privacy across multiple entities. In this paper, we propose a methodology for evaluating the performance of a vertical FLbased anomaly detector against different types of AML attacks, including denial-of-service attacks, adversarial data injection attacks, and replay attacks on the trained local models deployed in the grid network. For a case study, we consider the modified IEEE 13-bus system, and we develop SplitNN-based binary and multiclass classification models to detect, locate, and identify different types of data integrity attacks on the volt-watt control with two pooling layers: maximum pooling and AvgPool. Our experimental results, computed through performance metrics, reveal that the severity of these AML attacks varies with the integrated pooling mechanism, the type of classification model, and the nature of the cyberattack. Further, the AML attacks negatively impacted the prediction time per sample for the pretrained SplitNN during the online testing.

adversarial threats↗

DOE OSTI2017

Constraining the Magmatic System at Mount St. Helens (2004-2008) Using Bayesian Inversion With Physics-Based Models Including Gas Escape and Crystallization

Physics-based models of volcanic eruptions track conduit processes as functions of depth and time. When used in inversions, these models permit integration of diverse geological and geophysical data sets to constrain important parameters of magmatic systems. We develop a 1-D steady state conduit model for effusive eruptions including equilibrium crystallization and gas transport through the conduit and compare with the quasi-steady dome growth phase of Mount St. Helens in 2005. Viscosity increase resulting from pressure-dependent crystallization leads to a natural transition from viscous flow to frictional sliding on the conduit margin. Erupted mass flux depends strongly on wall rock and magma permeabilities due to their impact on magma density. Including both lateral and vertical gas transport reveals competing effects that produce nonmonotonic behavior in the mass flux when increasing magma permeability. Using this physics-based model in a Bayesian inversion, we link data sets from Mount St. Helens such as extrusion flux and earthquake depths with petrological data to estimate unknown model parameters, including magma chamber pressure and water content, magma permeability constants, conduit radius, and friction along the conduit walls. Even with this relatively simple model and limited data, we obtain improved constraints on important model parameters. We find that the magma chamber had low (<5 wt %) total volatiles and that the magma permeability scale is well constrained at ~10 –11.4 m 2 to reproduce observed dome rock porosities. Here, compared with previous results, higher magma overpressure and lower wall friction are required to compensate for increased viscous resistance while keeping extrusion rate at the observed value.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Estimating viscoelastic compliance of desiccating cementitious materials using drying prism tests

Highlights: • Determining relative humidity and degree of reaction of desiccating cementitious materials via an integrated method • Extracting moisture diffusion coefficient of cement mortar using the mass loss data of the prism specimens • Estimating uniaxial viscoelastic compliance of cement mortar using the shrinkage strain data of the prism specimens An integrated modeling approach to determining internal relative humidity and degree of reaction of desiccating cementitious materials has been developed. By simultaneously accounting for both self-desiccation and external drying, the model is capable of predicting the evolution of material properties of desiccating cementitious materials. Using the mass loss data of the prism specimens, the moisture diffusion coefficient of a nonlinear model for cement mortar was determined. Additionally, a previous poroviscoelastic shrinkage model was modified and extended. Through comparison of predicted and measured axial strain of the prism specimens, the viscoelastic compliance of cement mortar was extracted. The present work revealed that it is possible to use a simple drying prism test to fit the moisture diffusion coefficient and creep compliance of cementitious materials, though the comparison of the extracted viscoelastic compliance with measured compliance was only reasonable if the outer layer of the drying mortar was presumed to have microcracking.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Inclusive J /$\psi$ production at midrapidity in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

We report on the inclusive J/ψ production cross section measured at the CERN Large Hadron Collider in proton–proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV. The J/ψ mesons are reconstructed in the e + e - decay channel and the measurements are performed at midrapidity (|y|<0.9) in the transverse-momentum interval 0 < p T < 40 GeV/c, using a minimum-bias data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity L int =32.2 nb -1 and an Electromagnetic Calorimeter triggered data sample with L int =8.3 pb -1 . The p T -integrated J/ψ production cross section at midrapidity, computed using the minimum-bias data sample, is dσ/dy| y = 0 = 8.97±0.24 (stat)±0.48 (syst)±0.15 (lumi) μb. An approximate logarithmic dependence with the collision energy is suggested by these results and available world data, in agreement with model predictions. The integrated and p T -differential measurements are compared with measurements in pp collisions at lower energies and with several recent phenomenological calculations based on the non-relativistic QCD and Color Evaporation models.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2011

Dynamic Analysis of Electrical Power Grid Delivery: Using Prime Mover Engines to Balance Dynamic Wind Turbine Output

This paper presents an investigation into integrated wind + combustion engine high penetration electrical generation systems. Renewable generation systems are now a reality of electrical transmission. Unfortunately, many of these renewable energy supplies are stochastic and highly dynamic. Conversely, the existing national grid has been designed for steady state operation. The research team has developed an algorithm to investigate the feasibility and relative capability of a reciprocating internal combustion engine to directly integrate with wind generation in a tightly coupled Hybrid Energy System. Utilizing the Idaho National Laboratory developed Phoenix Model Integration Platform, the research team has coupled demand data with wind turbine generation data and the Aspen Custom Modeler reciprocating engine electrical generator model to investigate the capability of reciprocating engine electrical generation to balance stochastic renewable energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2011

Electrical Power Grid Delivery Dynamic Analysis: Using Prime Mover Engines to Balance Dynamic Wind Turbine Output

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Congruity of genomic and epidemiological data in modelling of local cholera outbreaks

Cholera continues to be a global health threat. Understanding how cholera spreads between locations is fundamental to the rational, evidence-based design of intervention and control efforts. Traditionally, cholera transmission models have used cholera case-count data. More recently, whole-genome sequence data have qualitatively described cholera transmission. Integrating these data streams may provide much more accurate models of cholera spread; however, no systematic analyses have been performed so far to compare traditional case-count models to the phylodynamic models from genomic data for cholera transmission. Here, we use high-fidelity case-count and whole-genome sequencing data from the 1991 to 1998 cholera epidemic in Argentina to directly compare the epidemiological model parameters estimated from these two data sources. We find that phylodynamic methods applied to cholera genomics data provide comparable estimates that are in line with established methods. Our methodology represents a critical step in building a framework for integrating case-count and genomic data sources for cholera epidemiology and other bacterial pathogens.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Results and lessons learned from accelerating radio frequency modeling using machine learning [slides]

The “advanced tokamak” reactor concept is a leading candidate for a steady state fusion pilot plant. An advanced tokamak (AT) sustains a majority of the required plasma current with effects resulting from maintenance of the peaked pressure at the device center. This current is augmented by auxiliary current drive sources. These auxiliary actuators may consist of neutral particle beams and/or radio frequency (RF) systems such as lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) and high harmonic fast wave (HHFW) current drive using radio and microwaves from antennas. The primary focus of this work is to develop models of RF current profile control suitable for use in integrated modeling frameworks and for real-time control in experiments. Direct physics models of RF current drive can be computationally intensive. In order to achieve predictive times appropriate for the thousands of calls needed in real-time control of experiments and for use in integrated models, we will apply modern machine learning (ML) techniques to accelerate these models and interpolate their results. To generate the fast and accurate models for use in control level algorithms and integrated modeling we need to replace present models with high dimensional interpolation of their results. We will perform additional simulations across a broader parameter range for EAST and other tokamaks in different physics regimes (Alcator C-Mod, DIII-D, WEST, CFETR, ARC, ITER) and combine them into a larger database for training and testing of the ML models. Further testing of the control level models with experimental current profile data from EAST and C-Mod tokamaks will provide additional confirmation of the control level model before integration in a tokamak control system or integrated modeling suite. ML will be used to optimize the selection of training data consisting of RF current driven at different values of density profile, temperature profile, plasma current, and wavenumber. ML will also be used to facilitate classification of current drive from these input data. The output of this effort will be a validated classifier capable of determining the current drive profiles for HHFW CD and LHCD on a mille-second timescale. This will provide a breakthrough capability enabling real-time control of RF driven current profiles in experiments including ITER ICRF and use integrated modeling frameworks requiring thousands of current profile calculations in discharge simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗