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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 685 records · Page 38
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Online evolutionary neural architecture search for multivariate non-stationary time series forecasting

Time series forecasting (TSF) is one of the most important tasks in data science. TSF models are usually pre-trained with historical data and then applied on future unseen datapoints. However, real-world time series data is usually non-stationary and models trained offline usually face problems from data drift. Models trained and designed in an offline fashion can not quickly adapt to changes quickly or be deployed in real-time. To address these issues, this work presents the Online NeuroEvolution-based Neural Architecture Search (ONE-NAS) algorithm, which is a novel neural architecture search method capable of automatically designing and dynamically training recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for online forecasting tasks. Without any pre-training, ONE-NAS utilizes populations of RNNs that are continuously updated with new network structures and weights in response to new multivariate input data. ONE-NAS is tested on real-world, large-scale multivariate wind turbine data as well as the univariate Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dataset. These results demonstrate that ONE-NAS outperforms traditional statistical time series forecasting methods, including online linear regression, fixed long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) models trained online, as well as state-of-the-art, online ARIMA strategies. Additionally, results show that utilizing multiple populations of RNNs which are periodically repopulated provide significant performance improvements, allowing this online neural network architecture design and training to be successful.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

A hybrid CNN-LSTM surrogate model for hyper-resolution spatiotemporal flood forecasting in Norfolk, Virginia

Study region: Norfolk, Virginia, United States Study focus: Accurate and timely flood forecasting is essential for enhancing resilience in coastal urban areas in the context of increasing frequency and intensity of rainfall, sea level rise and urbanization. This study presents a hybrid deep learning-based surrogate model that integrates Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to enable real-time spatiotemporal flood forecasting. The model leverages CNN to capture spatial features from inputs such as elevation and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), while LSTM processes time-series inputs of rainfall and tide data to capture temporal features. New hydrologic insights for the region: The hybrid CNN-LSTM model was trained using the physics-based hydrodynamic model simulations obtained from the Two-dimensional Unsteady FLOW (TUFLOW) model for Norfolk, Virginia, and achieved high predictive accuracy across diverse flood-prone areas. The reduced computational time from four to six hours using TUFLOW to 3.2 min per event using CNN-LSTM enables rapid flood inundation mapping and early warning applications. The model effectively captured both spatial flood extents and their temporal evolution across different flooding scenarios, providing forecasts at a 2.5-m spatial resolution and 15-min temporal resolution and a one-hour-ahead prediction horizon. While challenges remain in terms of transferability to new regions and real-time data assimilation, this approach demonstrates strong potential for supporting operational flood risk management in coastal urban environments.

Coastal urban flooding↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep learning-accelerated 3D carbon storage reservoir pressure forecasting based on data assimilation using surface displacement from InSAR

Fast forecasting of the reservoir pressure distribution during geologic carbon storage (GCS) by assimilating monitoring data is a challenging problem. Due to high drilling cost, GCS projects usually have spatially sparse measurements from few wells, leading to high uncertainties in reservoir pressure prediction. To address this challenge, we use low-cost Interferometric Synthetic-Aperture Radar (InSAR) data as monitoring data to infer reservoir pressure build up. We develop a deep learning-accelerated workflow to assimilate surface displacement maps interpreted from InSAR and to forecast dynamic reservoir pressure. Employing an Ensemble Smoother Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) framework, the workflow updates three-dimensional (3D) geologic properties and predicts reservoir pressure with quantified uncertainties. We use a synthetic commercial-scale GCS model with bimodally distributed permeability and porosity to demonstrate the efficacy of the workflow. A two-step CNN-PCA approach is employed to parameterize the bimodal fields. The computational efficiency of the workflow is boosted by two residual U-Net based surrogate models for surface displacement and reservoir pressure predictions, respectively. The workflow can complete data assimilation and reservoir pressure forecasting in half an hour on a personal computer.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Use of physics to improve solar forecast: Part III, impacts of different cloud types

Cloud-type impacts present a great challenge to solar forecasting due to diverse and complex cloud-radiation interactions. This third part of our paper sequence seeks to address this challenge by quantifying the forecast accuracies under eight cloud types: cumulus (Cu), stratified clouds (St), altocumulus (Ac), altostratus (As), cirrostratus/anvil (Cr), cirrus (Ci), congestus (Co), deep convective clouds (Dc) across four physics-informed persistence models reported in Part I. To generalize the cloud impacts, the eight cloud types are further grouped into three cloud categories based on their common features: weak convective clouds, stratiform clouds, and strong convective clouds. Here, the decade-long (2001 ~ 2014) collocated measurements of irradiances and cloud types at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program South Great Plain (SGP) Central Facility site are used for model evaluation. Results reveal a clear performance hierarchy for global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI): best for weak convective clouds and cirrus, intermediate for stratiform clouds, and worst for strong convective clouds. Performance for diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) is less influenced by cloud types. Cloud albedo dominates all three irradiances for Dc, while both cloud albedo and cloud fraction are influential for other cloud types. A 12 %~33 % improvement in accuracy at 6-hour lead time compared to the benchmark smart model confirms the effectiveness of incorporating physics into the models for various cloud types; further improvements are expected by directly integrating cloud type information into forecasting models by modifying the physical formulation of cloud-radiation interaction, and/or using more advanced machine learning models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Novel Modeling Framework for Computationally Efficient and Accurate Real-Time Ensemble Flood Forecasting With Uncertainty Quantification

A novel modeling framework that simultaneously improves accuracy, predictability, and computational efficiency is presented. It embraces the benefits of three modeling techniques integrated together for the first time: surrogate modeling, parameter inference, and data assimilation. The use of polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) surrogates significantly decreases computational time. Parameter inference allows for model faster convergence, reduced uncertainty, and superior accuracy of simulated results. Ensemble Kalman filters assimilate errors that occur during forecasting. To examine the applicability and effectiveness of the integrated framework, we developed 18 approaches according to how surrogate models are constructed, what type of parameter distributions are used as model inputs, and whether model parameters are updated during the data assimilation procedure. We conclude that (1) PCE must be built over various forcing and flow conditions, and in contrast to previous studies, it does not need to be rebuilt at each time step; (2) model parameter specification that relies on constrained, posterior information of parameters (so-called Selected specification) can significantly improve forecasting performance and reduce uncertainty bounds compared to Random specification using prior information of parameters; and (3) no substantial differences in results exist between single and dual ensemble Kalman filters, but the latter better simulates flood peaks. The use of PCE effectively compensates for the computational load added by the parameter inference and data assimilation (up to ~80 times faster). Therefore, the presented approach contributes to a shift in modeling paradigm arguing that complex, high-fidelity hydrologic and hydraulic models should be increasingly adopted for real-time and ensemble flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating Ocean Observation Impacts on Coupled Atmosphere‐Ocean Models Using Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Observation (EFSO)

Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Observation (EFSO) is a technique that can efficiently identify the beneficial/detrimental impacts of every observation in ensemble-based data assimilation (DA). While EFSO has been successfully employed on atmospheric DA, it has never been applied to ocean or coupled DA due to the lack of a suitable error norm for oceanic variables. This study introduces a new density-based error norm incorporating sea temperature and salinity forecast errors, making EFSO applicable to ocean DA for the first time. We implemented the oceanic EFSO on the CFSv2-LETKF and investigated the impact of ocean observations under a weakly coupled DA framework. By removing the detrimental ocean observations detected by EFSO, the CFSv2 forecasts were significantly improved, showing the validation of impact estimation and the great potential of EFSO to be extended as a data selection criterion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simple, low-cost and accurate data-driven geophysical forecasting with learned kernels

Modelling geophysical processes as low-dimensional dynamical systems and regressing their vector field from data is a promising approach for learning emulators of such systems. We show that when the kernel of these emulators is also learned from data (using kernel flows, a variant of cross-validation), then the resulting data-driven models are not only faster than equation-based models but are easier to train than neural networks such as the long short-term memory neural network. In addition, they are also more accurate and predictive than the latter. When trained on geophysical observational data, for example the weekly averaged global sea-surface temperature, considerable gains are also observed by the proposed technique in comparison with classical partial differential equation-based models in terms of forecast computational cost and accuracy. When trained on publicly available re-analysis data for the daily temperature of the North American continent, we observe significant improvements over classical baselines such as climatology and persistence-based forecast techniques. Although our experiments concern specific examples, the proposed approach is general, and our results support the viability of kernel methods (with learned kernels) for interpretable and computationally efficient geophysical forecasting for a large diversity of processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Temporal Forecasting of Distributed Temperature Sensing in a Thermal Hydraulic System With Machine Learning and Statistical Models

We benchmark performance of long-short term memory (LSTM) network machine learning model and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) statistical model in temporal forecasting of distributed temperature sensing (DTS). Data in this study consists of fluid temperature transient measured with two co-located Rayleigh scattering fiber optic sensors (FOS) in a forced convection mixing zone of a thermal tee. We treat each gauge of a FOS as an independent temperature sensor. We first study prediction of DTS time series using Vanilla LSTM and ARIMA models trained on prior history of the same FOS that is used for testing. The results yield maximum absolute percentage error (MaxAPE) and root mean squared percentage error (RMSPE) of 1.58% and 0.06% for ARIMA, and 3.14% and 0.44% for LSTM, respectively. Next, we investigate zero-shot forecasting (ZSF) with LSTM and ARIMA trained on history of the co-located FOS only, which is advantageous when limited training data is available. The ZSF MaxAPE and RMSPE values for ARIMA are comparable to those of the Vanilla use case, while the error values for LSTM increase. We show that in ZSF, performance of LSTM network can be improved by training on most correlated gauges between the two FOS, which are identified by calculating the Pearson correlation coefficient. The improved ZSF MaxAPE and RMSPE for LSTM are 4.4% and 0.33%, respectively. Performance of ZSF LSTM can be further enhanced through transfer learning (TL), where LSTM is re-trained on a subset of the FOS that is the target of forecasting. We show that LSTM pre-trained on correlated dataset and re-trained on 30% of testing target dataset achieves MaxAPE and RMSPE values of 2.32% and 0.28%, respectively.

ARIMA↗
DOE OSTI2023

Intra-hour Solar Irradiance Forecast in Multiple Locations using Deep Transfer Learning

In recent years, solar power system installation imposes several challenges on the operations of local and regional power grids due to the inherent variability of ground-level solar irradiance. This work proposes a novel real-time solar forecast methodology for intra-hour solar irradiance based on deep transfer learning from ground-based sky imager for time horizons ranging from 5-15 min. There are three unique aspects of the proposed methodology: (1) a Deep Learning based algorithm development which is modeled as a classification approach rather than a traditional regression approach; (2) the use of the Transfer Learning technique to show generalization capability, robustness, and portability of baseline model in the newly deployed location where availability of enough data for training is typically scarce, and (3) redefinition of point-based irradiation forecast error estimation technique with a window-based one that is more intuitive and user-friendly. The system is developed using multiple years of irradiance and sky image recording in New Jersey and one-year data from Colorado, USA. The method is validated against ground telemetry from these two locations of diverse geographic and climatic conditions. Results show that the forecasting method proposed in this work is robust and highly accurate (8% MAPE error) for multiple locations deployment.

Deep Learning, Convolution Neural Networks, transf↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Solar Power Forecasting with Regularized Constrained Quantile Regression Averaging and Bootstrapping Techniques

Probabilistic solar power forecasting (SPF) plays an essential role in optimizing power-grid operations by quantifying the forecast uncertainty. To improve the accuracy and robustness of probabilistic SPF, this paper introduces the regularized constrained quantile regression averaging (rCQRA) method to combine outputs from multiple PSPF models. In addition, a bootstrapping method was used to quantify model uncertainty, providing insights into the reliability and significance of each ensemble component. To evaluate its efficacy, the proposed rCQRA method is used to integrate four PSPF methods. The resulting SPF models are trained and validated using a real-world six-year dataset from a rooftop solar plant in the USA. The performance of the proposed rCQRA method is evaluated and compared with two benchmark methods under three categories of weather conditions. It is shown that the rCQRA method has superior performance in its forecast reliability, sharpness, and accuracy.

Ensemble learning, probabilistic solar power forec↗
DOE OSTI2023

Solar PV, Wind Generation, and Load Forecasting Dataset for ERCOT 2018: Performance-Based Energy Resource Feedback, Optimization, and Risk Management (P.E.R.F.O.R.M.)

This report describes the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy Performance-Based Energy Resource Feedback, Optimization, and Risk Management (PERFORM) Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) dataset consisting of load, solar, and wind deterministic and probabilistic forecasts at three timescales. This dataset consists of 1 year of time-coincident load, wind, and solar actuals and probabilistic forecasts for a region similar to ERCOT. All the data are stored in Hierarchical Data Format 5 (HDF5) files and have been uploaded to an Amazon Web Services repository. The ERCOT data set has 2 years (2017, 2018) of actuals and 1 year (2018) of probabilistic forecasts. These data are provided at various spatial (i.e., site-level, zone-level, and system-level) and temporal scales (i.e., day-ahead, intraday, and intra-hour). Specifically, data are provided for 125 existing wind sites, 22 existing solar sites, 139 proposed wind sites, and 204 proposed solar sites.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving Microalgal Biomass Productivity Using Weather-Forecast-Informed Operations

The operation of microalgal cultivation systems, such as culture dilution associated with harvests, affects biomass productivity. However, the constantly changing incident light and ambient temperature in the outdoor environment make it difficult to determine the operational parameters that result in optimal biomass growth. To address this problem, we present a pond operation optimization tool that predicts biomass growth based on future weather conditions to identify the optimal dilution rate that maximizes biomass productivity. The concept was tested by comparing the biomass productivities of three dilution scenarios: standard batch cultivation (no dilution), fixed-rate dilution (harvest 60% of the culture every three days), and weather-forecast-informed dilution. In the weather-forecast-informed case, the culture was diluted daily, and the dilution ratio was optimized by the operation optimization tool according to the future 24 h weather condition. The results show that the weather-forecast-informed dilution improved the biomass productivity by 47% over the standard batch cultivation and 20% over the fixed-rate dilution case. These results demonstrate that the pond operation optimization tool could help pond operators to make decisions that maximize biomass growth in the field under ever-changing weather conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transforming Agricultural Productivity with AI-Driven Forecasting: Innovations in Food Security and Supply Chain Optimization

Global food security is under significant threat from climate change, population growth, and resource scarcity. This review examines how advanced AI-driven forecasting models, including machine learning (ML), deep learning (DL), and time-series forecasting models like SARIMA/ARIMA, are transforming regional agricultural practices and food supply chains. Through the integration of Internet of Things (IoT), remote sensing, and blockchain technologies, these models facilitate the real-time monitoring of crop growth, resource allocation, and market dynamics, enhancing decision making and sustainability. The study adopts a mixed-methods approach, including systematic literature analysis and regional case studies. Highlights include AI-driven yield forecasting in European hydroponic systems and resource optimization in southeast Asian aquaponics, showcasing localized efficiency gains. Furthermore, AI applications in food processing, such as plasma, ozone and Pulsed Electric Field (PEF) treatments, are shown to improve food preservation and reduce spoilage. Key challenges—such as data quality, model scalability, and prediction accuracy—are discussed, particularly in the context of data-poor environments, limiting broader model applicability. The paper concludes by outlining future directions, emphasizing context-specific AI implementations, the need for public–private collaboration, and policy interventions to enhance scalability and adoption in food security contexts.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Centralized AI Lakehouse Framework for Brain Tumor MRI Classification and Segmentation, University KPI Forecasting, and Water Potability Prediction

In many university and healthcare projects, models are built for very different data types such as tables, institutional time series, and medical images, but they are deployed as separate applications. In this work, that separation made testing and maintenance difficult because each module had its own pipeline and runtime requirements. This paper presents an integrated AI lakehouse-style implementation that runs three model pipelines inside one containerized backend. For medical imaging, we used MRI datasets from IEEE DataPort: a four-class classification set with 7012 images (5708 train/1304 test) and a segmentation set with 3063 image–mask pairs. The classification model (ResNet50 transfer learning) is evaluated using a proper train–validation–test protocol across multiple splits (80/10/10, 70/10/20, 60/10/30, and 10/30/60), achieving a test accuracy of 99.00% under the standard 80/10/10 split. Additionally, a patient-level evaluation is conducted using an external glioma dataset to provide a more realistic assessment without data leakage. The segmentation model (DeepLabV3-ResNet50) achieved 83.09% validation mIoU and 88.79% Dice score. For university KPI forecasting, we used annual IPEDS and NSF HERD data from 2010 to 2023 for three universities (BSU, EOU, and UAB). To examine the effect of preprocessing on forecasting performance, two case studies are conducted. In the first case, linear interpolation is applied to generate semester-level data. In the second case, the original annual data is used directly without interpolation. Random Forest regression and ARIMA models are evaluated using MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and R 2 . The results showed that interpolation improved apparent forecasting performance due to smoothing, while evaluation on the original annual data provided a more realistic assessment of model behavior. To further validate the framework on a larger dataset, an additional case study is conducted using a student dropout dataset. For water potability, we trained and compared multiple tabular classifiers on a large dataset (1,048,575 samples). A Random Forest model (100 trees, max depth 10) achieved 85.86% test accuracy and high recall for unsafe samples (0.8447). All modules are served via FastAPI and deployed together using Docker, with workflow automation routing requests to the correct endpoint. System-level benchmarking indicates that the backend maintains stable throughput and latency under concurrent requests.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Main Pillar: Assessment of Space Weather Observational Asset Performance Supporting Nowcasting, Forecasting and Research to Operations

Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.

Extreme events↗
NASA NTRS2013

Ensemble Forecasting of Coronal Mass Ejections Using the WSA-ENLIL with CONED Model

The combination of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) coronal model, ENLIL heliospherical model version 2.7, and CONED Model version 1.3 (WSA-ENLIL with CONED Model) was employed to form ensemble forecasts for 15 halo coronal mass ejections (halo CMEs). The input parameter distributions were formed from 100 sets of CME cone parameters derived from the CONED Model. The CONED Model used image processing along with the bootstrap approach to automatically calculate cone parameter distributions from SOHO/LASCO imagery based on techniques described by Pulkkinen et al. (2010). The input parameter distributions were used as input to WSA-ENLIL to calculate the temporal evolution of the CMEs, which were analyzed to determine the propagation times to the L1 Lagrangian point and the maximum Kp indices due to the impact of the CMEs on the Earth's magnetosphere. The Newell et al. (2007) Kp index formula was employed to calculate the maximum Kp indices based on the predicted solar wind parameters near Earth assuming two magnetic field orientations: a completely southward magnetic field and a uniformly distributed clock-angle in the Newell et al. (2007) Kp index formula. The forecasts for 5 of the 15 events had accuracy such that the actual propagation time was within the ensemble average plus or minus one standard deviation. Using the completely southward magnetic field assumption, 10 of the 15 events contained the actual maximum Kp index within the range of the ensemble forecast, compared to 9 of the 15 events when using a uniformly distributed clock angle.

coronal mass↗
NASA NTRS2016

Improving 7-Day Forecast Skill by Assimilation of Retrieved AIRS Temperature Profiles

We conducted a new set of Data Assimilation Experiments covering the period January 1 to February 29, 2016 using the GEOS-5 DAS. Our experiments assimilate all data used operationally by GMAO (Control) with some modifications. Significant improvement in Global and Southern Hemisphere Extra-tropical 7-day forecast skill was obtained when: We assimilated AIRS Quality Controlled temperature profiles in place of observed AIRS radiances, and also did not assimilate CrISATMS radiances, nor did we assimilate radiosonde temperature profiles or aircraft temperatures. This new methodology did not improve or degrade 7-day Northern Hemispheric Extra-tropical forecast skill. We are conducting experiments aimed at further improving of Northern Hemisphere Extra-tropical forecast skill.

AIRS Temperature Profiles↗
NASA NTRS2017

Short-Term Forecasts Using NU-WRF for the Winter Olympics 2018

The NASA Unified-Weather Research and Forecasting model (NU-WRF) will be included for testing and evaluation in the forecast demonstration project (FDP) of the International Collaborative Experiment −PyeongChang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic (ICE-POP) Winter Games. An international array of radar and supporting ground based observations together with various forecast and now-cast models will be operational during ICE-POP. In conjunction with personnel from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center is developing benchmark simulations for a real-time NU-WRF configuration to run during the FDP. ICE-POP observational datasets will be used to validate model simulations and investigate improved model physics and performance for prediction of snow events during the research phase (RDP) of the project The NU-WRF model simulations will also support NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission ground-validation physical and direct validation activities in relation to verifying, testing and improving satellite-based snowfall retrieval algorithms over complex terrain.

forecasting↗