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NASA NTRS2003

Sensitivity of Precipitation Processes of Microphysics and Resolution in a Cloud-Resolving Model

The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is used to examine the impact of various microphysical schemes, and vertical and horizontal resolution ion the development, intensity and rainfall associated with mesoscale convective systems, idealized hurricanes and an ensemble f clouds. The model variables include horizontal and vertical velocities, potential temperatures, perturbation pressure, turbulent kinetic energy, and mixing ratios of all water phases (vapor, liquid, and ice). The major characteristics of the GCE model are the explicit representation of warm rain and ice microphysical processes, and their complex interactions with solar and infrared radiative transfer processes, and with surface processes. For idealized hurricane, an axisymmetric version of the GCE model was developed and used successfully to simulate the tropical cyclogenesis process using both a Rankin vortex and saturated air within a specified radius as initial conditions. For mesoscale convective systems, the 3-D version of the GCE model was used to simulated squall lines that developed in the western Pacific, eastern Atlantic and central US. For the cloud ensemble, the GCE model was integrated for several days in order to have good sampling of cloud statistics. In this paper, the sensitivities of hurricane intensity to various microphysical processes and model grid resolution will be examined. This will be mainly achieved by performing sensitivity tests using various horizontal (from 1- to 5-km) and vertical resolutions (from 20- to 200-m in the lower troposphere to 200- to 500-m in the middle and upper troposphere). Sensitivity tests using various microphysical schemes (warm rain only, and three ice with either graupel or hail) will also be performed. The thermodynamic and water budget associated with various types of precipitation systems will also be evaluated. The budgets will be calculated for different regions (i.e., convective and stratiform regions).

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2006

Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Over the Past 30 Years: A Global and Dynamic Perspective

The hurricane season of 2005 was the busiest on record and Hurricane Katrina (2005) is believed to be the costliest hurricane in U. S. history. There are growing concerns regarding whether this increased tropical cyclone activity is a result of global warming, as suggested by Emanuel(2005) and Webster et al. (2005), or just a natural oscillation (Goldenberg et al. 2001). This study examines the changes in tropical cyclone intensity to see what were really responsible for the changes in tropical cyclone activity over the past 30 years. Since the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) warming also leads to the response of atmospheric circulation, which is not solely determined by the local SST warming, this study suggests that it is better to take the tropical cyclone activities in the North Atlantic (NA), western North Pacific (WNP) and eastern North Pacific (ENP) basins as a whole when searching for the influence of the global-scale SST warming on tropical cyclone intensity. Over the past 30 years, as the tropical SST increased by about 0.5 C, the linear trends indicate 6%, 16% and 15% increases in the overall average intensity and lifetime and the annual frequency. Our analysis shows that the increased annual destructiveness of tropical cyclones reported by Emanuel(2005) resulted mainly from the increases in the average lifetime and annual frequency in the NA basin and from the increases in the average intensity and lifetime in the WNP basin, while the annual destructiveness in the ENP basin generally decreased over the past 30 years. The changes in the proportion of intense tropical cyclones reported by Webster et a1 (2005) were due mainly to the fact that increasing tropical cyclones took the tracks that favor for the development of intense tropical cyclones in the NA and WNP basins over the past 30 years. The dynamic influence associated with the tropical SST warming can lead to the impact of global warming on tropical cyclone intensity that may be very different from our current assessments, which were mainly based on the thermodynamic theory of tropical cyclone intensity.

Wu, Liguang↗

NASA NTRS2006

Overview of the Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX)

This paper presents an overview of the Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX), including the field operations, aircraft platforms and missions, instrumentation, and data acquired during 1998 and 2001 field campaigns. A total of eight tropical storms and hurricanes were investigated during the CAMEX field campaigns including Bonnie, Danielle, Earl, and Georges during 1998 and Chantal, Erin, Gabrielle, and Humberto during 2001. Most of these storms were sampled with aircraft over the open ocean, but Hurricanes Bonnie (1998), Georges (1998), and Gabrielle (2001) also provided opportunities to monitor landfalling impacts. A few of the storms were sampled on multiple occasions during a course of several days. Most notable of these was Hurricane Humberto, which was sampled on three consecutive days during a cycle of both increasing and decreasing intensity change. Information collected for each of the eight CAMEX tropical storms as well as the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission validation activities are accessible via the CAMEX Web site and archived at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Marshall Space Flight Center.

Kakar, Ramesh↗

NASA NTRS2004

Classification of Tropical Oceanic Precipitation using High-Altitude Aircraft Microwave and Electric Field Measurements

During the 1998 and 2001 hurricane seasons of the western Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR), the ER-2 Doppler (EDOP) radar, and the Lightning Instrument Package (LIP) were flown aboard the NASA ER-2 high-altitude aircraft as part of the Third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3) and the Fourth Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-4). Several hurricanes, tropical storms, and other precipitation systems were sampled during these experiments. An oceanic rainfall screening technique has been developed using AMPR passive microwave observations of these systems collected at frequencies of 10.7, 19.35, 37.1, and 85.5 GHz. This technique combines the information content of the four AMPR frequencies regarding the gross vertical structure of hydrometeors into an intuitive and easily executable precipitation mapping format. The results have been verified using vertical profiles of EDOP reflectivity and lower-altitude horizontal reflectivity scans collected by the NOAA WP3D Orion radar. Matching the rainfall classification results with coincident electric field information collected by the LIP readily identifies convective rain regions within the precipitation fields. This technique shows promise as a real-time research and analysis tool for monitoring vertical updraft strength and convective intensity from airborne platforms such as remotely operated or uninhabited aerial vehicles. The technique is analyzed and discussed for a wide variety of precipitation types using the 26 August 1998 observations of Hurricane Bonnie near landfall.

Hood, Robbie E.↗

NASA NTRS2007

X-Band Radar for Studies of Tropical Storms from High Altitude UAV Platform

The increased role of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) in NASA's suborbital program has created a strong interest in the development of instruments with new capabilities, more compact sizes and reduced weights than the instruments currently operated on manned aircrafts. There is a strong demand and tremendous potential for using high altitude UAV (HUAV) to carry weather radars for measurements of reflectivity and wind fields from tropical storms. Tropical storm genesis frequently occurs in ocean regions that are inaccessible to piloted aircraft due to the long off shore range and the required periods of time to gather significant data. Important factors of interest for the study of hurricane genesis include surface winds, profiled winds, sea surface temperatures, precipitation, and boundary layer conditions. Current satellite precipitation and surface wind sensors have resolutions that are too large and revisit times that are too infrequent to study this problem. Furthermore, none of the spaceborne sensors measure winds within the storm itself. A dual beam X-band Doppler radar, UAV Radar (URAD), is under development at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center for the study of tropical storms from HUAV platforms, such as a Global Hawk. X-band is the most desirable frequency for airborne weather radars since these can be built in a relatively compact size using off-the-shelf components which cost significantly less than other higher frequency radars. Furthermore, X-band radars provide good sensitivity with tolerable attenuation in storms. The low-cost and light-weight URAD will provide new capabilities for studying hurricane genesis by analyzing the vertical structure of tropical cyclones as well as 3D reflectivity and wind fields in clouds. It will enable us to measure both the 3D precipitation structure and surface winds by using two antenna beams: fixed nadir and conical scanning each produced by its associated subsystem. The nadir subsystem is a magnetron based radar modified from a marine radar transceiver. It is capable of measuring vertical reflectivity and velocity profile while being a lower-cost, smaller size, and lighter weight version of the NASA ER-2 Doppler Radar (EDOP), which has flown during many NASA field campaigns and has provided valuable scientific information on hurricanes and weather phenomena. Unfortunately, EDOP is too large and heavy for most UAV platforms, but the experience gained with this instrument provided us with the heritage to build a new low-cost, light-weight, smaller system that will be capable of flying on UAVs. The scanning subsystem uses a TWT transmitter and provides measurements of 3D reflectivity/wind fields in-clouds. Conical scanning of the radar beam at a 35 deg. incidence angle will also provide information of surface wind speed and direction derived from the surface return over a single 360 deg. sweep. URAD data system will be Linux based with the capability of autonomous operation. It will utilize cutting edge digital receiver and FPGA technologies to carry out the data acquisition and processing tasks. High speed navigation data from the aircraft will also be captured and saved along with radar data for 3D measurement field reconstruction and aircraft motion correction. There is a tremendous potential for UAVs to carry down-looking weather radars for measurements of reflectivity, horizontal and vertical winds from tropical storms. With operation from HUAV platforms, the dual beam X-band radar under development promises to provide greatly needed information for tropical storm research.

Rodriquez, Shannon↗

NASA NTRS2008

Storm Surge Measurement with an Airborne Scanning Radar Altimeter

Over the years, hurricane track and intensity forecasts and storm surge models and the digital terrain and bathymetry data they depend on have improved significantly. Strides have also been made in knowledge of the detailed variation of the surface wind field driving the surge. The area of least improvement has been in obtaining data on the details of the temporal/spatial variation of the storm surge dome of water as it evolves and inundates the land to evaluate the performance of the numerical models. Tide gages in the vicinity of the landfall are frequently destroyed by the surge. Survey crews dispatched after the event provide no temporal information and only indirect indications of the maximum surge envelope over land. The landfall of Hurricane Bonnie on 26 August 1998, with a surge less than 2 m, provided an excellent opportunity to demonstrate the potential benefits of direct airborne measurement of the temporal/spatial evolution of storm surge. Despite a 160 m variation in aircraft altitude, an 11.5 m variation in the elevation of the mean sea surface relative to the ellipsoid over the flight track, and the tidal variation over the 5 hour data acquisition interval, a survey-quality Global Positioning System (GPS) aircraft trajectory allowed the NASA Scanning Radar Altimeter carried by a NOAA hurricane research aircraft to produce storm surge measurements that generally fell between the predictions of the NOAA SLOSH model and the North Carolina State University storm surge model.

Wright, C. W.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Data Assimilation Cycling for Weather Analysis

This software package runs the atmospheric model MM5 in data assimilation cycling mode to produce an optimized weather analysis, including the ability to insert or adjust a hurricane vortex. The program runs MM5 through a cycle of short forecasts every three hours where the vortex is adjusted to match the observed hurricane location and storm intensity. This technique adjusts the surrounding environment so that the proper steering current and environmental shear are achieved. MM5cycle uses a Cressman analysis to blend observation into model fields to get a more accurate weather analysis. Quality control of observations is also done in every cycle to remove bad data that may contaminate the analysis. This technique can assimilate and propagate data in time from intermittent and infrequent observations while maintaining the atmospheric field in a dynamically balanced state. The software consists of a C-shell script (MM5cycle.driver) and three FORTRAN programs (splitMM5files.F, comRegrid.F, and insert_vortex.F), and are contained in the pre-processor component of MM5 called "Regridder." The model is first initialized with data from a global model such as the Global Forecast System (GFS), which also provides lateral boundary conditions. These data are separated into single-time files using splitMM5.F. The hurricane vortex is then bogussed in the correct location and with the correct wind field using insert_vortex.F. The modified initial and boundary conditions are then recombined into the model fields using comRegrid.F. The model then makes a three-hour forecast. The three-hour forecast data from MM5 now become the analysis for the next short forecast run, where the vortex will again be adjusted. The process repeats itself until the desired time of analysis is achieved. This code can also assimilate observations if desired.

Tran, Nam↗

NASA NTRS2007

Solutions Network Formulation Report. The Potential Contribution of the Landsat Data Continuity Mission to the Mississippi Coastal Improvements Project

The 2005 hurricane season - especially Hurricane Katrina - left the Mississippi Gulf Coast devastated. In its efforts to assist in coastal re-building efforts, the U.S. Congress passed the Defense Appropriation Act of 2006. This legislation directed the Secretary of the Army, via the USACE, to generate reports discussing possible projects that would improve the State of Mississippi?s coastal region. These projects are referred to as the MsCIP. Data collected via the LDCM OLI could be used to evaluate the success of projects that result from the MsCIP by monitoring regional coastal changes associated with such projects. This Candidate Solution is in alignment with the Coastal Management, Water Management, and Disaster Management National Applications and will benefit society by improving the post-Hurricane Katrina Mississippi Gulf Coast.

Hilbert, Kent↗

NASA NTRS2010

Electric Field Measurements During the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) Field Program

During the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) field program, a system of 6 electric field mills was flown on one of NASA's Global Hawk aircraft. We placed several mills on the aircraft to enable us to measure the vector electric field. We created a distributed, ethernet-connected system so that each sensor has its own embedded Linux system, complete with web server. This makes our current generation system fully "sensor web enabled." The Global Hawk has several unique qualities, but relevant to quality storm electric field measurements are high altitude (20 km) and long duration (20-30 hours) flights. There are several aircraft participating in the GRIP program, and coordinated measurements are happening. Lightning and electric field measurements will be used to study the relationships between lightning and other storm characteristics. It has been long understood that lightning can be used as a marker for strong convective activity. Past research and field programs suggest that lightning flash rate may serve as an indicator and precursor for rapid intensification change in tropical cyclones and hurricanes. We have the opportunity to sample hurricanes for many hours at a time and observe intensification (or de-intensification) periods. The electrical properties of hurricanes during such periods are not well known. American

Bateman, Monte G.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Electrically-Active Convection and Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Atlantic and East Pacific

It has been hypothesized that deep, intense convective-scale hot towers may aid the process of tropical cyclogenesis and intensification through dynamic and thermodynamic feedbacks on the larger meso-to-synoptic scale circulation. In this study, we make use of NCEP Reanalysis data and Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) lightning imaging sensor (LIS), precipitation radar (PR), and microwave imager (TMI) data to investigate the role that widespread and/or intense lightning-producing convection (i.e., electrically-hot towers) present in African easterly waves (AEWs) may play in tropical cyclogenesis over the Atlantic, Caribbean, and East Pacific regions. NCEP Reanalysis 700 hPa meridional winds for the months of June to November for the years 2001-2009 were analyzed for the domain of 5 deg. N-20 deg. N and 130 deg. W-20 deg. E in order to partition individual AEWs into northerly, southerly, trough, and ridge phases. Subsequently, information from National Hurricane Center (NHC) storm reports was used to divide the waves into developing and non-developing waves. In addition, information from the NHC reports was used to further divide the developing waves into those waves that spawned storms that only developed to tropical storm strength and those that spawned storms that reached hurricane strength. The developing waves were also divided by the region in which they developed. To assess the evolution of convection associated with the AEWs as they propagated across our analysis domain, the full 130 deg. W-20 deg. E domain was divided into five longitude bands, and waves were analyzed for each band. To help determine the gross nature of the smaller convective scale, composites were created of all developing and non-developing waves as a function of AEW wave phase over the full analysis domain and each longitude band by compositing TRMM PR, TMI, LIS, and IR brightness temperature data extracted from the NASA global-merged infrared brightness temperature dataset. Finally, similar composites were created using various NCEP variables to assess the nature of the larger scale environment and circulation. Results suggest a clear distinction between developing and non-developing waves as developing waves near their region of development in terms of the intensity of convection (indicated by lightning flash rate), coverage of cold cloudiness (indicated by the percentage of a 2.5 deg. by 2.5 deg. box covered by IR brightness temperatures less than 240 deg. K and 210 deg. K), and large-scale variables, such as midlevel moisture and upper-level upward motion. For example, waves that developed in the East Pacific longitude band (i.e., 130 deg. W 95 deg. W) were observed in that band to have a flash rate of 56.4 flashes per day, a coverage by brightness temperatures less than 240 deg. K equal to 15.9%, a coverage by brightness temperatures less than 210 deg. K equal to 2.2%, a 700-hPa specific humidity anomaly of 0.4 g per kilogram, and a 300-hPa omega value of -0.04 Pascals per second in the trough phase compared to the non-developing wave trough values of 22.1 flashes per day, a coverage by brightness temperatures less than 240 deg. K equal to 8.1%, a coverage by brightness temperatures less than 210 deg. K equal to 0.9%, a 700-hPa specific humidity anomaly of -0.3 g per kilogram, and a 300-hPa omega value of -0.01 Pascals per second. Further analysis is being conducted to determine if the aforementioned behavior is observed for developing waves farther from their region of development and to determine any significant differences between waves that spawned storms that reached tropical storm strength and those that spawned storms that reached hurricane strength.

Leppert, Kenneth D., II↗

NASA NTRS2006

Forecasting of Storm-Surge Floods Using ADCIRC and Optimized DEMs

Increasing the accuracy of storm-surge flood forecasts is essential for improving preparedness for hurricanes and other severe storms and, in particular, for optimizing evacuation scenarios. An interactive database, developed by WorldWinds, Inc., contains atlases of storm-surge flood levels for the Louisiana/Mississippi gulf coast region. These atlases were developed to improve forecasting of flooding along the coastline and estuaries and in adjacent inland areas. Storm-surge heights depend on a complex interaction of several factors, including: storm size, central minimum pressure, forward speed of motion, bottom topography near the point of landfall, astronomical tides, and, most importantly, maximum wind speed. The information in the atlases was generated in over 100 computational simulations, partly by use of a parallel-processing version of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. ADCIRC is a nonlinear computational model of hydrodynamics, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the US Navy, as a family of two- and three-dimensional finite-element-based codes. It affords a capability for simulating tidal circulation and storm-surge propagation over very large computational domains, while simultaneously providing high-resolution output in areas of complex shoreline and bathymetry. The ADCIRC finite-element grid for this project covered the Gulf of Mexico and contiguous basins, extending into the deep Atlantic Ocean with progressively higher resolution approaching the study area. The advantage of using ADCIRC over other storm-surge models, such as SLOSH, is that input conditions can include all or part of wind stress, tides, wave stress, and river discharge, which serve to make the model output more accurate. To keep the computational load manageable, this work was conducted using only the wind stress, calculated by using historical data from Hurricane Camille, as the input condition for the model. Hurricane storm-surge simulations were performed on an eight-node Linux computer cluster. Each node contained dual 2-GHz processors, 2GB of memory, and a 40GB hard drive. The digital elevation model (DEM) for this region was specified using a combination of Navy data (over water), NOAA data (for the coastline), and optimized Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data (over land). This high-resolution topographical data of the Mississippi coastal region provided the ADCIRC model with improved input with which to calculate improved storm-surge forecasts.

Valenti, Elizabeth↗

NASA NTRS2013

NASA Activity Update for the 2013 Unmanned Vehicle Systems International (UVSI) Yearbook

This year s report offers a high level perspective on some of the UAS related activities in which NASA is involved, both internal and external to the agency. Internally, NASA issued UAS operational policy on certification of NASA UAS and aircrew. A team of NASA UAS experts and operators analyzed all current procedures and best practices to design the policy. An update to the agencies Aircraft Operations Management Manual incorporated a new chapter to address UAS planning, preflight operations, flight operations, flight crew requirements, airworthiness and flight safety reviews. NASA UAS are classified into three categories based on weight and airspeed. Aircrews, including observers, are classified by how they interface with the UAS, and the policy defines qualifications, training, and currency. The NASA flight readiness approval process identifies risks and mitigations in order to reduce the likelihood and/or consequence of the risk to an acceptable level. The UAS operations process incorporates all aspects of airworthiness, flight standards and range safety exactly the same processes used for NASA manned aircraft operations. NASA has two internal organizations that routinely operate UAS. The Science Mission Directorate utilizes UAS as part of its Airborne Science Program and is the most frequent operator of NASA UAS in both national and international airspace. The Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate conducts UAS flight operations in addition to conducting research important to the UAS community. This past year the Science Mission Directorate supported the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentimental (HS3) Mission with two NASA Global Hawk platforms. HS3 is a five-year mission specifically targeted to investigate the processes that underlie hurricane formation. During the 2012 portion of this mission the Global Hawk overflew hurricanes Leslie and Nadine in the Atlantic Ocean completing 6 flights and accumulating more than 148 flight hours. Another multi-year mission was initiated last year when the Sensor Integrated Environmental Remote Research Aircraft (SIERRA) UAS began surveying faults in California s Surprise Valley. A team of scientists and engineers from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), NASA Ames Research Center, Central Washington University, and Carnegie Mellon University will measure magnetic fields using ground surveys and the SIERRA to map the geophysics below the surface of Surprise Valley. The data collected will be used to generate 3D maps of the geophysical data of the area. The Aeronautics Mission Directorate continues its collaboration with Boeing to conduct UAS flight operations of the X-48C, a modified version of the X-48B originally built by Cranfield Aerospace, United Kingdom. The Aeronautics Mission Directorate utilizes vehicles of this size for a wide variety of research studies. Most of these operations are conducted within restricted airspace. The Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate also sponsors the UAS in the National Airspace System (NAS) Project, which is working in close cooperation with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to address critical challenges associated with routine UAS operations in civil airspace. The project is focused on separation assurance and collision avoidance systems and algorithms, command and control for non-military operations including spectrum allocation requirements, human system interaction issues, and safety and certification topics.

Bauer, Jeffrey E.↗

NASA NTRS2013

North American Tropical Cyclone Landfall and SST: A Statistical Model Study

A statistical-stochastic model of the complete life cycle of North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclones (TCs) is used to examine the relationship between climate and landfall rates along the North American Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. The model draws on archived data of TCs throughout the North Atlantic to estimate landfall rates at high geographic resolution as a function of the ENSO state and one of two different measures of sea surface temperature (SST): 1) SST averaged over the NA subtropics and the hurricane season and 2) this SST relative to the seasonal global subtropical mean SST (termed relSST). Here, the authors focus on SST by holding ENSO to a neutral state. Jackknife uncertainty tests are employed to test the significance of SST and relSST landfall relationships. There are more TC and major hurricane landfalls overall in warm years than cold, using either SST or relSST, primarily due to a basinwide increase in the number of storms. The signal along the coast, however, is complex. Some regions have large and significant sensitivity (e.g., an approximate doubling of annual major hurricane landfall probability on Texas from -2 to +2 standard deviations in relSST), while other regions have no significant sensitivity (e.g., the U.S. mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts). This geographic structure is due to both shifts in the regions of primary TC genesis and shifts in TC propagation.

El Nino↗

NASA NTRS2014

Demonstration of AIRS Total Ozone Products to Operations to Enhance User Readiness

Cyclogenesis is a key forecast challenge at operational forecasting centers such as WPC and OPC, so these centers have a particular interest in unique products that can identify key storm features. In some cases, explosively developing extratropical cyclones can produce hurricane force, non-convective winds along the East Coast and north Atlantic as well as the Pacific Ocean, with the potential to cause significant damage to life and property. Therefore, anticipating cyclogenesis for these types of storms is crucial for furthering the NOAA goal of a "Weather Ready Nation". Over the last few years, multispectral imagery (i.e. RGB) products have gained popularity among forecasters. The GOES-R satellite champion at WPC/OPC has regularly evaluated the Air Mass RGB products from GOES Sounder, MODIS, and SEVIRI to aid in forecasting cyclogenesis as part of ongoing collaborations with SPoRT within the framework of the GOES-R Proving Ground. WPC/OPC has used these products to identify regions of stratospheric air associated with tropopause folds that can lead to cyclogenesis and hurricane force winds. RGB products combine multiple channels or channel differences into multi-color imagery in which different colors represent a particular cloud or air mass type. Initial interaction and feedback from forecasters evaluating the legacy Air Mass RGBs revealed some uncertainty regarding what physical processes the qualitative RGB products represent and color interpretation. To enhance forecaster confidence and interpretation of the Air Mass RGB, NASA SPoRT has transitioned a total column ozone product from AIRS retrievals to the WPC/OPC. The use of legacy AIRS demonstrates future JPSS capabilities possible with CrIS or OMPS. Since stratospheric air can be identified by anomalous potential vorticity and warm, dry, ozone-rich air, hyperspectral infrared sounder ozone products can be used in conjunction with the Air Mass RGB for identifying the role of stratospheric air in explosive cyclogenesis and hurricane force wind events. Currently, forecasters at WPC/OPC are evaluating the Air Mass RGB imagery in conjunction with the AIRS total column ozone to aid forecasting cyclogenesis and high wind forecasts. One of the limitations of the total ozone product is that it is difficult for forecasters to determine whether elevated ozone concentrations are related to stratospheric air or climatologically high values of ozone in certain regions. To address this limitation, SPoRT created an AIRS ozone anomaly product which calculates the percent of normal ozone based on a global stratospheric ozone mean climatology. With the knowledge that ozone values 125 percent of normal and greater typically represent stratospheric air; the anomaly product can be used with the total column ozone product to confirm regions of stratospheric air on the Air Mass RGB. This presentation describes the generation of these products along with forecaster feedback concerning the use of the AIRS ozone products in conjunction with the Air Mass RGB product for the unique forecast challenges WPC/OPC face. Additionally examples of CrIS ozone and anomaly products will be shown to further demonstrate the utility and capability of JPSS in forecasting unique events.

Berndt, Emily↗

NASA NTRS2014

Statistical Aspects of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2013

This Technical Publication (TP) is part 2 of a two-part study of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones that occurred during the weather satellite era, 1960-2013. In particular, this TP examines the inferred statistical relationships between 25 tropical cyclone parameters and 9 specific climate-related factors, including the (1) Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), (2) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), (3) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index, (4) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) index, (5) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index of the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), (6) NAO index of the Climate Research Unit (CRU), (7) Armagh surface air temperature (ASAT), (8) Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GLOTI), and (9) Mauna Loa carbon dioxide (CO2) (MLCO2) index. Part 1 of this two-part study examined the statistical aspects of the 25 tropical cyclone parameters (e.g., frequencies, peak wind speed (PWS), accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), etc.) and provided the results of statistical testing (i.e., runs-testing, the t-statistic for independent samples, and Poisson distributions). Also, the study gave predictions for the frequencies of the number of tropical cyclones (NTC), number of hurricanes (NH), number of major hurricanes (NMH), and number of United States land-falling hurricanes (NUSLFH) expected for the 2014 season, based on the statistics of the overall interval 1960-2013, the subinterval 1995-2013, and whether the year 2014 would be either an El Niño year (ENY) or a non-El Niño year (NENY).

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Development and Application of Hyperspectral Infrared Ozone Retrieval Products for Operational Meteorology

Berndt, Emily↗

NASA NTRS2015

Monitoring Changes of Tropical Extreme Rainfall Events Using Differential Absorption Barometric Radar (DiBAR)

This work studies the potential of monitoring changes in tropical extreme rainfall events such as tropical storms from space using a Differential-absorption BArometric Radar (DiBAR) operating at 50-55 gigahertz O2 absorption band to remotely measure sea surface air pressure. Air pressure is among the most important variables that affect atmospheric dynamics, and currently can only be measured by limited in-situ observations over oceans. Analyses show that with the proposed radar the errors in instantaneous (averaged) pressure estimates can be as low as approximately 5 millibars (approximately 1 millibar) under all weather conditions. With these sea level pressure measurements, the forecasts, analyses and understanding of these extreme events in both short and long time scales can be improved. Severe weathers, especially hurricanes, are listed as one of core areas that need improved observations and predictions in WCRP (World Climate Research Program) and NASA Decadal Survey (DS) and have major impacts on public safety and national security through disaster mitigation. Since the development of the DiBAR concept about a decade ago, our team has made substantial progress in advancing the concept. Our feasibility assessment clearly shows the potential of sea surface barometry using existing radar technologies. We have developed a DiBAR system design, fabricated a Prototype-DiBAR (P-DiBAR) for proof-of-concept, conducted lab, ground and airborne P-DiBAR tests. The flight test results are consistent with our instrumentation goals. Observational system simulation experiments for space DiBAR performance show substantial improvements in tropical storm predictions, not only for the hurricane track and position but also for the hurricane intensity. DiBAR measurements will lead us to an unprecedented level of the prediction and knowledge on tropical extreme rainfall weather and climate conditions.

Lin, Bing↗

NASA NTRS2016

Remote Sensing Global Surface Air Pressure Using Differential Absorption BArometric Radar (DiBAR)

Tropical storms and severe weathers are listed as one of core events that need improved observations and predictions in World Meteorological Organization and NASA Decadal Survey (DS) documents and have major impacts on public safety and national security. This effort tries to observe surface air pressure, especially over open seas, from space using a Differential-absorption BArometric Radar (DiBAR) operating at the 50-55 gigahertz O2 absorption band. Air pressure is among the most important variables that affect atmospheric dynamics, and currently can only be measured by limited in-situ observations over oceans. Analyses show that with the proposed space radar the errors in instantaneous (averaged) pressure estimates can be as low as approximately 4 millibars (approximately 1 millibar under all weather conditions). With these sea level pressure measurements, the forecasts of severe weathers such as hurricanes will be significantly improved. Since the development of the DiBAR concept about a decade ago, NASA Langley DiBAR research team has made substantial progress in advancing the concept. The feasibility assessment clearly shows the potential of sea surface barometry using existing radar technologies. The team has developed a DiBAR system design, fabricated a Prototype-DiBAR (P-DiBAR) for proof-of-concept, conducted lab, ground and airborne P-DiBAR tests. The flight test results are consistent with the instrumentation goals. Observational system simulation experiments for space DiBAR performance based on the existing DiBAR technology and capability show substantial improvements in tropical storm predictions, not only for the hurricane track and position but also for the hurricane intensity. DiBAR measurements will lead us to an unprecedented level of the prediction and knowledge on global extreme weather and climate conditions.

Lin, Bing↗