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Best Practices in Electricity Load Modeling and Forecasting for Long-Term Power System Planning

This document highlights the best practices on data acquisition and management, modeling and stakeholder engagement required for enhanced load modeling and forecasting. Each section is interspersed with case studies to highlight lessons from different country contexts to highlight both cross-cutting and location specific best practices needed to conduct robust load modeling and forecasting.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Best Practices for Plug Load Management Using a Building Energy Management System

The University of California San Diego (UCSD) successfully integrated PLCs with their BEMS, which resulted in 66% energy savings over one week across 25 plug loads (K. Chia et al. 2023). UCSD documented each step of this effort, highlighting best practices along the way, in their 10-page brief, "Best Practices for Plug Load Management Using a Building Energy Management System" (also referred to as "brief" in this document). This fact sheet provides highlights and key takeaways from UCSD's brief. The reader is encouraged to read UCSD's full brief if they wish to move forward with implementing PLC integration with their BEMS.

Building Energy Management System Integration↗

An Ultrafast, Durable, and High-Loading Polymer Anode for Aqueous Zinc-Ion Batteries and Supercapacitors

Zn metal has shown promise as an anode material for grid-level energy storage, yet is challenged by dendritic growth and low Coulombic efficiency. Herein, an ultrafast, stable, and high-loading polymer anode for aqueous Zn-ion batteries and capacitors (ZIBs and ZICs) is developed by engineering both the electrode and electrolyte. The anode polymer is rationally prepared to have a suitable electronic structure and a large pi-conjugated structure, whereas the electrolyte is manufactured based on the superiority of triflate anions over sulfate anions, as analyzed and confirmed via experiments and simulations. This dual engineering results in an optimal polymer anode with a low discharge potential, near-theoretical capacity, ultrahigh-loading capability (approximate to 50 mg cm -2 ), ultrafast rate (100 A g -1 ), and ultralong lifespan (one million cycles). Further, its mechanism involves reversible Zn 2+ /proton co-storage at the carbonyl site. When the polymer anode is coupled with cathodes for both ZIB and ZIC applications, the devices demonstrate ultrahigh power densities and ultralong lifespans, far surpassing those of corresponding Zn-metal-based devices.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Revisiting the Impact of Anion Selection on Sulfur Redox Reaction Kinetics for High Sulfur Loading Lithium–Sulfur Batteries

Lithium bis(trifluoromethane)sulfonimide (LiTFSI) is widely used in lithium–sulfur (Li–S) battery electrolytes due to its stability with lithium polysulfides (LiPSs) and moderate compatibility with lithium metal anodes. However, LiTFSI presents environmental concerns due to its association with per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), which are environmentally persistent and potentially toxic, raises sustainability concerns. This research also reveals that LiTFSI limits sulfur redox reactions (SRRs), making it less effective than other lithium salts. Additionally, some salts previously considered incompatible with Li-S systems due to their reactivity with LiPSs are demonstrated to perform effectively. For the first time, a protective, porous cathode electrolyte interphase (CEI) formed in situ through reactions between salt anions and LiPS is reported. The cells delivered a high specific capacity of 1230.8 mAh g −1 at 0.05 C with a sulfur loading of ≈6 mg cm −2 , limited lithium anode, maintaining a capacity retention of 76.2% after 100 cycles at 0.1 C. Under harsh conditions, such as high sulfur loading, lean electrolyte conditions (3 µL mg −1 ), and in anode-free cells, the cells continued to deliver outstanding capacity. This work provides valuable guidelines for understanding and selecting lithium salts to advance electrolyte design for Li–S batteries.

high loading batteries↗

High Sulfur Loading and Capacity Retention in Bilayer Garnet Sulfurized‐Polyacrylonitrile/Lithium‐Metal Batteries with Gel Polymer Electrolytes

The cubic‐garnet (Li 7 La 3 Zr 2 O 12 , LLZO) lithium–sulfur battery shows great promise in the pursuit of achieving high energy densities. The sulfur used in the cathodes is abundant, inexpensive, and possesses high specific capacity. In addition, LLZO displays excellent chemical stability with Li metal; however, the instabilities in the sulfur cathode/LLZO interface can lead to performance degradation that limits the development of these batteries. Therefore, it is critical to resolve these interfacial challenges to achieve stable cycling. Here, an innovative gel polymer buffer layer to stabilize the sulfur cathode/LLZO interface is created. Employing a thin bilayer LLZO (dense/porous) architecture as a solid electrolyte and significantly high sulfur loading of 5.2 mg cm −2 , stable cycling is achieved with a high initial discharge capacity of 1542 mAh g −1 (discharge current density of 0.87 mA cm −2 ) and an average discharge capacity of 1218 mAh g −1 (discharge current density of 1.74 mA cm −2 ) with 80% capacity retention over 265 cycles, at room temperature (22 °C) and without applied pressure. Achieving such stability with high sulfur loading is a major step in the development of potentially commercial garnet lithium–sulfur batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A semi–automatic analytical methodology for characterizing the energy consumption of MRI systems using load duration curves

Background and purpose: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanners are a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions from the healthcare sector, and efforts to improve energy efficiency and reduce energy consumption rely on quantification of the characteristics of energy consumption. The purpose of this work was to develop a semi-automatic analytical methodology for the characterization of the energy consumption of MRI systems using only the load duration curve (LDC). LDCs are a fundamental tool used across various fields to analyze and understand the behavior of loads over time. Methods: An electric current transformer sensor and data logger were installed on two 3T MRI scanners from two vendors, termed M1 (outpatient scanner) and M2 (inpatient/emergency scanner). Data was collected for 1 month (7/11/2023 to 8/11/2023). Active power was calculated, assuming a balanced three-phase system, using the average current measured across all three phases, a 480 V reference voltage for both machines, and vendor-provided power factors. An LDC was constructed for each system by sorting the active power values in descending order and computing the cumulative time (in units of percentage) for each data point. The first derivative of the LDC was then computed (LDC’), smoothed by convolution with a window function (sLDC’), and used to detect transitions between different system modes including (in descending power levels): scan, prepared-to-scan, idle, low-power, and off. The final, segmented LDC was used to measure time (% total time), total energy (kWh), and mean power (kW) for each system mode on both scanners. The method was validated by comparing mean power values, computed using the segmented 1-month LDC, for each nonproductive system mode (i.e., prepared-to-scan, idle, lower-power, and off) against power levels measured after a deliberate system shutdown was performed for each scanner (1 day worth of data). Results: The validation revealed differences in mean power values <1.4% for all nonproductive modes and both scanners. In the scan system mode, the mean power values ranged from 29.8 to 37.2 kW and the total energy consumed for 1 month ranged from 11 106 to 14 466 kWh depending on the scanner. Over the course of 1 month, the portion of time the scanners were in nonproductive modes ranged from 76% to 80% across scanners and the nonproductive energy consumption ranged from 8010 to 6722 kWh depending on the scanner. The M1 (outpatient) scanner consumed 99.9 and 183.9 kWh/day in idle mode for weekdays and weekends, respectively, because the scanner spent 23% more time proportionally in idle mode on the weekends. Conclusions: A semi-automatic method for quantifying energy consumption characteristics of MRI scanners was introduced and validated. This method is relatively simple to implement as it requires only power data from the scanners and avoids the technical challenges associated with extracting and processing scanner log files. Finally, the methodology enables quantitative evaluation of the power, time, and energy characteristics of MRI scanners in scan and nonproductive system modes, providing baseline data and the capability of identifying potential opportunities for enhancing the energy efficiency of MRI scanners.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Simulating dispatchable grid services provided by flexible building loads: State of the art and needed building energy modeling improvements

End-use electrical loads in residential and commercial buildings are evolving into flexible and cost-effective resources to improve electric grid reliability, reduce costs, and support increased hosting of distributed renewable generation. This article reviews the simulation of utility services delivered by buildings for the purpose of electric grid operational modeling. We consider services delivered to (1) the high-voltage bulk power system through the coordinated action of many, distributed building loads working together, and (2) targeted support provided to the operation of low-voltage electric distribution grids. Although an exhaustive exploration is not possible, we emphasize the ancillary services and voltage management buildings can provide and summarize the gaps in our ability to simulate them with traditional building energy modeling (BEM) tools, suggesting pathways for future research and development.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Modulating thermal load through lightweight residential building walls using thermal energy storage and controlled precooling strategy

Precooling is a recognized technique for reducing cooling energy in buildings during peak hours by shifting load to off-peak hours. This technique is particularly effective in buildings with high thermal mass, because of their large thermal energy storage capacity, and in commercial buildings due to their variable electricity pricing based on time-of-use rates. Precooling in residential buildings has been a matter of limited interest in the past because of their low thermal mass and typically uniform electricity pricing rate. While previous studies on precooling primarily focused on cost savings, an important aspect of precooling is the thermal load modulation, which could be very effective in managing peak demand in lightweight residential buildings integrated with thermal energy storage systems. In this study, we examine different precooling strategies to manage the heat gains in lightweight building walls integrated with phase-change materials. We create nine different precooling profiles by controlling the interior temperature, and then evaluate the influence of the precooling profiles on four key building energy performance parameters: total heat gain, peak heat gain, maximum heat gain during peak hours, and time at which peak occurs. To thoroughly understand the fundamental physics, we first consider hypothetical climates and obtain the optimal precooling strategy required to achieve maximum peak shedding and shifting while minimizing the total heat gains. We then extend the model to Baltimore, Maryland, and estimate the benefits of the optimized precooling strategy under real conditions. The optimal precooling strategy proposed in this study can shift the peak heat gain by up to 14 hours, thereby reducing the heat gain during peak period by up to 95%, at the expense of a 23% increase in the total heat gains.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Experimental study of a thermal energy storage-integrated heat pump system for load shifting in space cooling and heating

This study experimentally investigates an all-season thermal energy storage-integrated heat pump (TES-HP) system developed to enhance building energy efficiency and support grid-interactive operation through load shifting in both cooling and heating. A 4-ton commercial rooftop air-source heat pump was modified by integrating a hydronic thermal energy storage (TES) unit containing a phase change material (PCM) with a melting temperature of 22.0 °C. The system employs two reversing valves and three electronic expansion valves to enable six operating modes, including normal, TES charging, and TES discharging in both cooling and heating seasons. A subcooling-controlled electronic expansion valve was implemented to mitigate refrigerant maldistribution caused by unequal internal volumes among the heat exchangers. Compared with a baseline heat pump, the TES-HP reduced power consumption by 30–50% during cooling at an ambient temperature of 40.6 °C, and by up to 60% during heating at −15.0 °C, while maintaining high performance under cold-climate conditions. Additionaly to experimental evaluation, a simplified annualized on-peak analysis was conducted to compare the TES-HP with the baseline system, indicating an on-peak electricity reduction of approximately 876 kWhₑ per unit per year and associated on-peak cost savings under time-of-use pricing. These results demonstrate that the TES-HP effectively decouples HP operation from adverse ambient conditions, improving flexibility, resilience, and energy efficiency. This work advances prior research by experimentally proving the integration of PCM-based TES for a year-round, load-flexible HVAC operation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Power capture and power take-off load of a self-balanced dual-flap oscillating surge wave energy converter

Wave energy converters are an important part of future renewable energy infrastructure. Predicting their power matrix, capture width ratio, and power take-off loads at a targeted site is required for performance assessment before deployment. Because their testing is very expensive, numerical modeling and simulations play a significant role in those assessments. Linear potential flow theory has limited accuracy under large amplitude wave forcing. More accurate predictions can be obtained by using higher-fidelity models, which are computationally expensive. We present a framework for multi-fidelity numerical simulations to determine the hydrodynamic response, wave capture capability, and power take-off load of a full-scale dual-flap oscillating surge wave energy converter. This design exploits out-of-phase motion by setting the distance between the flaps to half the wavelength of the most occurring wave. The simulations are validated using a 1:10 model experiments in a wave tank. Based on these validations, it was determined that Euler simulations provide an acceptable prediction with 90% reduction in computational time with only 11% error. Utilizing Euler simulations at full-scale, the results demonstrate that the annual electrical energy output is 1.79 GWh under regular wave conditions. Here, one significant improvement over single-flap designs is the capture width ratio which exceeds unity.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Real-time hybrid controls of energy storage and load shedding for integrated power and energy systems of ships

This paper presents an original energy management methodology to enhance the resilience of ship power systems. The integration of various energy storage systems (ESS), including battery energy storage systems (BESS) and super-capacitor energy storage systems (SCESS), in modern ship power systems poses challenges in designing an efficient energy management system (EMS). The EMS proposed in this paper aims to achieve multiple objectives. The primary objective is to minimize shed loads, while the secondary objective is to effectively manage different types of ESS. Considering the diverse ramp-rate characteristics of generators, SCESS, and BESS, the proposed EMS exploits these differences to determine an optimal long-term schedule for minimizing shed loads. Furthermore, the proposed EMS balances the state-of-charge (SoC) of ESS and prioritizes the SCESS’s SoC levels to ensure the efficient operation of BESS and SCESS. For better computational efficiency, we introduce the receding horizon optimization method, enabling real-time EMS implementation. Further, a comparison with the fixed horizon optimization (FHO) validates its effectiveness. Simulation studies and results demonstrate that the proposed EMS efficiently manages generators, BESS, and SCESS, ensuring system resilience under generation shortages. Additionally, the proposed methodology significantly reduces the computational burden compared to the FHO technique while maintaining acceptable resilience performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Nonlinear behavior in high-frequency aggregate control of thermostatically controlled loads

Coordinated control of electric loads can provide valuable grid services, such as frequency regulation. However, due to the nonlinear characteristics of such load ensembles, it is important to systematically analyze their behavior and establish a thorough understanding of undesirable phenomena that can potentially arise. In this paper, we analyze the frequency response of an aggregate control scheme, with the goal of exploring controller performance limits. We show that rapid switching commands can induce oscillations in the power output due to the inherent lockout mechanism of the underlying devices. Here, we demonstrate that highly detailed aggregate models are required to capture such phenomena. Such models enable deeper understanding of the control boundaries and therefore play an important role in avoiding the introduction of undesirable effects on the grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Tri-level hybrid interval-stochastic optimal scheduling for flexible residential loads under GAN-assisted multiple uncertainties

Various building loads, such as heating, ventilation, and air conditioners (HVACs), electric water heaters (EWHs), and electric vehicles (EVs), can introduce opportunities for improving the flexibility of electricity consumption while satisfying the needs of building owners as well as benefiting the resilience of distribution system. To utilize such flexibility, a tri-level distribution market framework is established, including residential consumers, load aggregators (LAs), and the distribution system operator (DSO). In this work, the uncertainties from all three levels are considered. The random consumption behavior at the consumer level is modeled as a Gaussian noise that is also aggregated and transmitted to the LA level. The weather temperature in the LA level is forecasted as an interval, and the photovoltaic (PV) power in the market-clearing level is modeled by a set of power scenarios generated by Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). Then, a hybrid interval-stochastic programming is proposed to transform the uncertain problems in the first two levels into deterministic ones. For real-time implementations, a rolling horizon optimization (RHO) scheme is employed to continuously optimize the power consumption based on the latest operating information. Finally, case studies on a modified IEEE 69-bus system validate the effectiveness of the proposed uncertainty modeling strategies and the RHO scheme.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

On the role of geometrically necessary dislocations in void formation and growth in response to shock loading conditions in wrought and additively manufactured Ta

This study investigates the role of geometrically necessary dislocations (GNDs) and microstructure on void nucleation and growth in wrought and additively manufactured (AM) tantalum subjected to high-strain rate loading. Multi-modal 3D data was collected using TriBeam tomography to calculate GND densities and their spatial relationship to voids. A microstructural comparison between the wrought and AM samples identified distinct void shapes and locations, with intragranular voids and more spherical voids frequently observed in the AM dataset. Results indicate that voids preferentially form at both high-angle grain boundaries and low-angle subgrain boundaries, the latter of which are frequently observed in the AM material. Through a radial distribution analysis of all voids in the datasets, significant GND localization to near-void-surface regions was observed in both samples. 3D crystal plasticity simulations were employed to extend the experimental observations, revealing higher void growth rates in [111] oriented grains when compared to [001] grains. The simulations also suggest that GNDs can be generated as part of the void growth process, with more GND accumulation for growth in a [111] grain than a [001] grain. These findings provide valuable insights into the links between nanoscale void nucleation, mesoscale void growth, and microstructural effects in dynamically loaded tantalum.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

6 Li-loaded liquid scintillators produced by direct dissolution of compounds in diisopropylnaphthalene (DIPN)

Here, this paper describes preparation of 6 Li-loaded liquid scintillators by methods involving direct dissolution of 6Li salts in the commercial diisopropylnaphthalene (DIPN) solvent, without the formation of water-in-oil emulsions. Methods include incorporation of 6 Li that, unlike previously reported formulations, does not require additions of water or a strong acid such as hydrochloric acid (HCl). Results of the conducted experiments show that dissolution of aromatic and aliphatic 6 Li salts in DIPN can be easily achieved at 0.1%–0.3% by weight of atomic 6 Li, using small additions of waterless surfactants, or mild carboxylic acids. An alternative way suggests incorporation of 6 Li as a part of a surfactant molecule that can be dissolved in DIPN without any solubilizing additions. Proposed methods enable preparation of efficient 6 Li-loaded liquid scintillators that, at a large scale of 50 cm, exhibit good pulse shape discrimination (PSD) properties combined with up to 107% of light output and up to 115% of the attenuation length measured relative to standard undoped EJ-309 liquid scintillator.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Scalable self attraction and loading calculations for unstructured ocean tide models

Self attraction and earth-loading effects are important for accurately modeling global tides. A common approach of handling this forcing is to expand mass anomalies into spherical harmonics, which are scaled by load Love numbers to account for elastic earth deformation. We investigate two different approaches to perform these calculations for ocean models that employ unstructured meshes and distributed memory parallelization. The first approach leverages a highly efficient spherical harmonics library, but requires all-to-one and one-to-all communications and interpolation operations between the unstructured and a structured mesh. This approach is compared to a parallel algorithm that computes the spherical harmonic transformations directly on the unstructured mesh with an all-reduce communication. Here, our results show that although the unstructured mesh calculations are more expensive, the scalability of the unstructured mesh approach allows for more efficient spherical harmonics transforms for high-resolution meshes and large processor counts. This methodology enables the efficient inclusion of tidal dynamics large-scale Earth system model simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydrodynamics and Load Shedding Behavior of a Variable-Geometry Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter (OSWEC)

In order to improve their long-term viability, wave energy converters (WECs) need to be able to shed loads when a threshold wave condition is exceeded. As shown by Tom et al. (2016) [1], provision of adjustable flaps within the body of an oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC) allows wave energy to pass through the device. A control system may then be able to open and close the flaps when waves approaching the device exceed preset thresholds. The variable-geometry OSWEC (VG-OSWEC) concept studied in this paper is a bottom-hinged, rectangular wave paddle with five flaps of elliptical cross-section embedded into the face of the paddle. System ID tests were conducted on this VG-OSWEC device at a 1:14 scale in a wave basin. Free decay tests showed that the damping was distinctly nonlinear when the flaps were fully open, and the natural frequency increased by 40% when compared with the flaps in a fully closed configuration. Tests with regular wave conditions were used to develop the response amplitude operator for the rotational motion about the hinge. These response amplitude operator results when compared with numerical simulations run using WEC-Sim/WAMIT and ANSYS AQWA, show strong agreement with the flap open and closed conditions. The regular-wave condition measurements also show that the wave excitation moment about the hinge was reduced by up to 60% when the flaps were fully open. The experiments serve to demonstrate the potential of the variable geometry design to shed loads and survive harsh ocean environments.

load shedding↗

Groundwater flowpath characteristics drive variability in per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) loading across a stream-wetland system

Groundwater dependent ecosystems in areas with industrial and military land use are at risk of direct exposure to a wide range of contaminants, including PFAS chemicals. Glaciated terrain often has mixed high and low permeability sediments coupled with groundwater flow-through lake features. These hydrogeologic attributes create highly complex ‘source to seep’ dynamics that make spatiotemporal contaminant transport patterns difficult to predict. We investigated one such system in detail using a suite of heat-tracing and chemical methods. Numerous (n=57) preferential groundwater discharge zones (vertical flux rates ranging 0.2 to 3.2 m/d) were identified across the upper Quashnet River stream-wetland system in Mashpee, MA, USA, adjacent to an Air Force Base with several known PFAS source areas. Surface-water and groundwater samples were collected and analyzed (n=145) for precursors and terminal PFAS compounds between March and September 2022. Samples were collected at identified seeps along the Quashnet River (n=59), from wells upgradient from the stream-wetland system (n= 44), from contributing flow-through kettle lakes (n=8), and at multiple locations along the Quashnet River (n=34). Samples from seeps and wells had measured PFAS concentrations ranging from non-detect to approximate 3,500 ng/L (mean= 1,650 ng/L), and a range of deuterium excess values (3.2 to 15.9 per mil) indicative of varying degrees of groundwater-lake interaction prior to emergence at the discharge zones. Groundwater-lake interaction along flowpaths that sourced the sampled seeps was farther supported by significant correlations (p < 0.01) between deuterium excess and %PFAS precursors, and between %PFAS precursors and multiple terminal PFAS compounds (e.g., PFPeS, PFBS, PFHxS). However, some sampled seeps contributing groundwater to the stream-wetland system had much higher total PFAS concentrations (>1000 ng/L) than the upgradient kettle lakes, despite showing lake (evaporative) isotopic signatures, indicating the potential for groundwater flowpath convergence at wetland discharge zones and the influence of lakebed PFAS precursor reactions. PFAS compounds and water isotopic composition at sampled multilevel groundwater wells, rivers, lakes, and seeps suggest that a complex mixture of source groundwater and flowpath characteristics are responsible for diverse observed PFAS mixtures at preferential discharge zones across the stream-wetland system. Further, total PFAS loading patterns to the Quashnet River via groundwater discharge remained remarkably similar from winter to summer to fall conditions, despite a regional dry period in late summer 2022 with the upper river channel completely drying. This work addresses gaps in the existing PFAS literature by demonstrating the importance of subsurface fate and transport on PFAS compound concentrations in controlling contaminant mass loading in preferential groundwater discharge zones and presents a transferrable field toolkit for efficient characterization of spatially preferential PFAS transport dynamics.

Contaminant transport↗