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At least 685 records · Page 38

Equipotential doming in flooded circular basins on the moon

A procedure is presented that permits determination of the shape of the gravity field due to an arbitrary mass configuration with circular symmetry. The procedure is used to model the shape of the field associated with the lunar circular basins. The mean slopes of the equipotential surfaces generated by a superisostatic deposit corresponding to a near-surface Crisium-size mascon are calculated to fall within the range from 1:700 to 1:1000; those generated by a mantle rebound of the same excess mass, at 60 km below the lunar surface, cluster around the value of 1:1500.

Roth, L. E.↗

The geostatistical approach for structural and stratigraphic framework analysis of offshore NW Bonaparte Basin, Australia

Geostatistics or statistical approach is based on the studies of temporal and spatial trend, which depend upon spatial relationships to model known information of variable(s) at unsampled locations. The statistical technique known as kriging was used for petrophycial and facies analysis, which help to assume spatial relationship to model the geological continuity between the known data and the unknown to produce a single best guess of the unknown. Kriging is also known as optimal interpolation technique, which facilitate to generate best linear unbiased estimation of each horizon. The idea is to construct a numerical model of the lithofacies and rock properties that honor available data and further integrate with interpreting seismic sections, techtonostratigraphy chart with sea level curve (short term) and regional tectonics of the study area to find the structural and stratigraphic growth history of the NW Bonaparte Basin. By using kriging technique the models were built which help to estimate different parameters like horizons, facies, and porosities in the study area. The variograms were used to determine for identification of spatial relationship between data which help to find the depositional history of the North West (NW) Bonaparte Basin.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Joint Body- and Surface-Wave Tomography of Yucca Flat, Nevada, Using a Novel Seismic Source

In preparation for the next phase of the Source Physics Experiments, we acquired an active–source seismic dataset along two transects totaling more than 30 km in length at Yucca Flat, Nevada, on the Nevada National Security Site. Yucca Flat is a sedimentary basin which has hosted more than 650 underground nuclear tests (UGTs). The survey source was a novel 13,000 kg modified industrial pile driver. This weight drop source proved to be broadband and repeatable, richer in low frequencies (1–3 Hz) than traditional vibrator sources and capable of producing peak particle velocities similar to those produced by a 50 kg explosive charge. In this study, we performed a joint inversion of P–wave refraction travel times and Rayleigh–wave phase–velocity dispersion curves for the P– and S–wave velocity structure of Yucca Flat. Phase–velocity surface–wave dispersion measurements were obtained via the refraction microtremor method on 1 km arrays, with 80% overlap. Our P–wave velocity models verify and expand the current understanding of Yucca Flat’s subsurface geometry and bulk properties such as depth to Paleozoic basement and shallow alluvium velocity. Areas of disagreement between this study and the current geologic model of Yucca Flat (derived from borehole studies) generally correlate with areas of widely spaced borehole control points. This provides an opportunity to update the existing model, which is used for modeling groundwater flow and radionuclide transport. Scattering caused by UGT–related high–contrast velocity anomalies substantially reduced the number and frequency bandwidth of usable dispersion picks. Here, the S–wave velocity models presented in this study agree with existing basin–wide studies of Yucca Flat, but are compromised by diminished surface–wave coherence as a product of this scattering. As nuclear nonproliferation monitoring moves from teleseismic to regional or even local distances, such high–frequency (>5 Hz) scattering could prove challenging when attempting to discriminate events in areas of previous testing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Decomposition of the Mean Squared Error and NSE Performance Criteria: Implications for Improving Hydrological Modelling

The mean squared error (MSE) and the related normalization, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), are the two criteria most widely used for calibration and evaluation of hydrological models with observed data. Here, we present a diagnostically interesting decomposition of NSE (and hence MSE), which facilitates analysis of the relative importance of its different components in the context of hydrological modelling, and show how model calibration problems can arise due to interactions among these components. The analysis is illustrated by calibrating a simple conceptual precipitation-runoff model to daily data for a number of Austrian basins having a broad range of hydro-meteorological characteristics. Evaluation of the results clearly demonstrates the problems that can be associated with any calibration based on the NSE (or MSE) criterion. While we propose and test an alternative criterion that can help to reduce model calibration problems, the primary purpose of this study is not to present an improved measure of model performance. Instead, we seek to show that there are systematic problems inherent with any optimization based on formulations related to the MSE. The analysis and results have implications to the manner in which we calibrate and evaluate environmental models; we discuss these and suggest possible ways forward that may move us towards an improved and diagnostically meaningful approach to model performance evaluation and identification.

Gupta, Hoshin V.↗

Application of Crunch-Flow Routines to Constrain Present and Past Carbon Fluxes at Gas-Hydrate Bearing Sites

In November 2012, Oregon State University initiated the project entitled: Application of Crunch-Flow routines to constrain present and past carbon fluxes at gas-hydrate bearing sites. Within this project we developed Crunch-Flow based modeling modules that include important biogeochemical processes that need to be considered in gas hydrate environments. Our modules were applied to quantify carbon cycling in present and past systems, using data collected during several DOE-supported drilling expeditions, which include the Cascadia margin in US, Ulleung Basin in South Korea, and several sites drilled offshore India on the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea. Specifically, we completed modeling efforts that: 1) Reproduce the compositional and isotopic profiles observed at the eight drilled sites in the Ulleung Basin that constrain and contrast the carbon cycling pathways at chimney (high methane flux) and non-chimney sites (low methane, advective systems); 2) Simulate the Ba record in the sediments to quantify the past dynamics of methane flux in the southern Hydrate Ridge, Cascadia margin; and 3) Provide quantitative estimates of the thickness of individual mass transport deposits (MTDs), time elapsed after the MTD event, rate of sulfate reduction in the MTD, and time required to reach a new steady state at several sites drilled in the Krishna-Godavari (K-G) Basin off India. In addition we developed a hybrid model scheme by coupling a home-made MATLAB code with CrunchFlow to address the methane transport and chloride enrichment at the Ulleung Basins chimney sites, and contributed the modeling component to a study focusing on pore-scale controls on gas hydrate distribution in sediments from the Andaman Sea. These efforts resulted in two manuscripts currently under review, and contributed the modeling component of another pare, also under review. Lessons learned from these efforts are the basis of a mini-workshop to be held at Oregon State University (Feb 2014) to instruct graduate students (OSU and UW) as well as DOE staff from the NETL lab in Albany on the use of Crunch Flow for geochemical applications.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Fresh Water Content Variability in the Arctic Ocean

Arctic Ocean model simulations have revealed that the Arctic Ocean has a basin wide oscillation with cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation anomalies (Arctic Ocean Oscillation; AOO) which has a prominent decadal variability. This study explores how the simulated AOO affects the Arctic Ocean stratification and its relationship to the sea ice cover variations. The simulation uses the Princeton Ocean Model coupled to sea ice. The surface forcing is based on NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis and its climatology, of which the latter is used to force the model spin-up phase. Our focus is to investigate the competition between ocean dynamics and ice formation/melt on the Arctic basin-wide fresh water balance. We find that changes in the Atlantic water inflow can explain almost all of the simulated fresh water anomalies in the main Arctic basin. The Atlantic water inflow anomalies are an essential part of AOO, which is the wind driven barotropic response to the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The baroclinic response to AO, such as Ekman pumping in the Beaufort Gyre, and ice meldfreeze anomalies in response to AO are less significant considering the whole Arctic fresh water balance.

Hakkinen, Sirpa↗

Collaborative Research: Process-Resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate

DOE-GTRC-05596 11/24/2104 Collaborative Research: Process-Resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate PI: Dr. Yi Deng (PI) School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia Institute of Technology 404-385-1821, yi.deng@eas.gatech.edu El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Annular Modes (AMs) represent respectively the most important modes of low frequency variability in the tropical and extratropical circulations. The projection of future changes in the ENSO and AM variability, however, remains highly uncertain with the state-of-the-science climate models. This project conducted a process-resolving, quantitative evaluations of the ENSO and AM variability in the modern reanalysis observations and in climate model simulations. The goal is to identify and understand the sources of uncertainty and biases in models’ representation of ENSO and AM variability. Using a feedback analysis method originally formulated by one of the collaborative PIs, we partitioned the 3D atmospheric temperature anomalies and surface temperature anomalies associated with ENSO and AM variability into components linked to 1) radiation-related thermodynamic processes such as cloud and water vapor feedbacks, 2) local dynamical processes including convection and turbulent/diffusive energy transfer and 3) non-local dynamical processes such as the horizontal energy transport in the oceans and atmosphere. In the past 4 years, the research conducted at Georgia Tech under the support of this project has led to 15 peer-reviewed publications and 9 conference/workshop presentations. Two graduate students and one postdoctoral fellow also received research training through participating the project activities. This final technical report summarizes key scientific discoveries we made and provides also a list of all publications and conference presentations resulted from research activities at Georgia Tech. The main findings include: 1) the distinctly different roles played by atmospheric dynamical processes in establishing surface temperature response to ENSO at tropics and extratropics (i.e., atmospheric dynamics disperses energy out of tropics during ENSO warm events and modulate surface temperature at mid-, high-latitudes through controlling downward longwave radiation); 2) the representations of ENSO-related temperature response in climate models fail to converge at the process-level particularly over extratropics (i.e., models produce the right temperature responses to ENSO but with wrong reasons); 3) water vapor feedback contributes substantially to the temperature anomalies found over U.S. during different phases of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), which adds new insight to the traditional picture that cold/warm advective processes are the main drivers of local temperature responses to the NAM; 4) the overall land surface temperature biases in the latest NCAR model (CESM1) are caused by biases in surface albedo while the surface temperature biases over ocean are related to multiple factors including biases in model albedo, cloud and oceanic dynamics, and the temperature biases over different ocean basins are also induced by different process biases. These results provide a detailed guidance for process-level model turning and improvement, and thus contribute directly to the overall goal of reducing model uncertainty in projecting future changes in the Earth’s climate system, especially in the ENSO and AM variability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Allometric Scaling of Hyporheic Respiration Across Basins in the Pacific Northwest United States

Abstract Hyporheic zones regulate biogeochemical processes in streams and rivers, but high spatiotemporal heterogeneity makes it difficult to predict how these processes scale from individual reaches to river basins. Recent work applying allometric scaling (i.e., power‐law relationships between size and function) to river networks provides a new paradigm for understanding cumulative hyporheic biogeochemical processes. We used previously published model predictions of reach‐scale hyporheic aerobic respiration to explore patterns in allometric scaling across two climatically divergent basins with differing characteristics in the Pacific Northwest, United States. In the model, hydrologic exchange fluxes (HEFs) regulate hyporheic respiration, so we examined how HEFs might influence allometric scaling of respiration. We found consistent scaling behaviors where HEFs were either very low or very high, but differences between basins when HEFs were moderate. Our findings provide initial model‐generated hypotheses for factors influencing allometric scaling of hyporheic respiration. These hypotheses can be used to optimize new data generation efforts aimed at developing predictive understanding of allometries that can, in turn, be used to scale biogeochemical dynamics across watersheds.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Attributing runoff changes to climate variability and human activities: Uncertainty analysis using four monthly water balance models

Hydrological simulations to delineate the impacts of climate variability and human activities are subjected to uncertainties related to both parameter and structure of the hydrological models. To analyze the impact of these uncertainties on the model performance and to yield more reliable simulation results, a global calibration and multimodel combination method that integrates the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM) and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) of four monthly water balance models was proposed. The method was applied to the Weihe River Basin (WRB), the largest tributary of the Yellow River, to determine the contribution of climate variability and human activities to runoff changes. The change point, which was used to determine the baseline period (1956-1990) and human-impacted period (1991-2009), was derived using both cumulative curve and Pettitt’s test. Results show that the combination method from SCEM provides more skillful deterministic predictions than the best calibrated individual model, resulting in the smallest uncertainty interval of runoff changes attributed to climate variability and human activities. This combination methodology provides a practical and flexible tool for attribution of runoff changes to climate variability and human activities by hydrological models.

runoff change, uncertainty assessment, monthly wat↗

Resolution matters when modeling climate change in headwaters of the Colorado River

The continued growth of Southwestern cities depends on reliable water export from Rocky Mountain headwaters, which provide ~85% of Colorado River Basin (CRB) streamflow. Despite being more sensitive to warming temperatures, alpine systems are simplified in the regional-scale models currently in use to plan for future water supply. We used an integrated hydrologic model that couples groundwater and surface water with snow and vegetation processes to examine the effect of topographic simplifications as a result of grid coarsening in a representative CRB headwater basin. High-resolution (100 m) simulations predicted headwater streamflow losses of 16% by 2050 while coarse-resolution (1 km) simulations predict only 12%, suggesting that regional-scale models (coarser than 1 km) likely overestimate future Colorado River Basin water supplies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cold Season Performance of the NU-WRF Regional Climate Model in the Great Lakes Region

As Earth’s largest collection of freshwater, the Laurentian Great Lakes have enormous ecological and socio-economic value. Their basin has become a regional hotspot of climatic and limnological change, potentially threatening its vital natural resources. Consequentially, there is a need to assess the current state of climate models regarding their performance across the Great Lakes region and develop the next generation of high-resolution regional climate models to address complex limnological processes and lake-atmosphere interactions. In response to this need, the current paper focuses on the generation and analysis of a 20-member ensemble of 3-km National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) simulations for the 2014-2015 cold season. The study aims to identify the model’s strengths and weaknesses; optimal configuration for the region; and the impacts of different physics parameterizations, coupling to a 1D lake model, time-variant lake-surface temperatures, and spectral nudging. Several key biases are identified in the cold-season simulations for the Great Lakes region, including an atmospheric cold bias that is amplified by coupling to a 1D lake model but diminished by applying the Community Atmosphere Model radiation scheme and Morrison microphysics scheme; an excess precipitation bias; anomalously early initiation of fall lake turnover and subsequent cold lake bias; excessive and overly persistent lake ice cover; and insufficient evaporation over Lakes Superior and Huron. The research team is currently addressing these key limitations by coupling NU-WRF to a 3D lake model in support of the next generation of regional climate models for the critical Great Lakes Basin.

Michael Notaro↗

In Search of a Cost-Effective Approach for Estimating Dam Passage Survival

Abstract Passage of downstream-migrating fishes through hydropower dams poses a management issue in rivers throughout the world. As such, regulations have been enacted at many locales to understand and limit fish losses by requiring dam passage survival estimation. However, limiting estimates of survival to the dam and immediate tailrace presents a challenge to researchers. In this study, two alternative release–recapture methods were used to estimate dam passage survival of juvenile salmonids through Lower Granite Dam on the Snake River, Washington, in 2018. One approach, the virtual/paired-release (ViPRe) model, was extensively used in the Columbia–Snake River basin at federally operated hydroelectric dams during 2010–2014. This existing approach uses three releases of tagged smolts to isolate dam passage survival, defined as survival from the upstream dam face to the tailrace mixing zone 1–2 km downstream of the dam. An alternative approach, the virtual release/dead-fish correction (ViRDCt) model, uses one live-release group paired with a release of dead tagged fish at the dam to estimate the same survival parameter. The alternative estimation approaches were tested on two spring out-migrating stocks, yearling Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss, and on a summer out-migrating stock of subyearling Chinook Salmon. The alternative estimates for these stocks were all within 1 SE. However, the ViRDCt model produced survival estimates with SEs that were 59% smaller than those of the existing ViPRe model and did so using 42% fewer tagged fish and one less downstream acoustic detection array. Because of the reduced sample size, nearly US$540,000 less in tag costs and 4,000 fewer labor-hours were required to implement the ViRDCt model compared to the ViPRe model. As such, the ViRDCt model represents a cost-effective and precise approach to characterizing dam passage survival.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Geological Structures in the WaIls of Vestan Craters

A compelling case can be made that Vesta is the parent asteroid for the howardite, eucrite and diogenite (HED) meteorites [1], although this interpretation has been questioned [2]. Generalized models for the structure of the crust of Vesta have been developed based on petrologic studies of basaltic eucrites, cumulate eucrites and diogenites. These models use inferred cooling rates for different types of HEDs and compositional variations within the clan to posit that the lower crust is dominantly diogenitic in character, cumulate eucrites occur deep in the upper crust, and basaltic eucrites dominate the higher levels of the upper crust [3-5]. These models lack fine-scale resolution and thus do not allow for detailed predictions of crustal structure. Geophysical models predict dike and sill intrusions ought to be present, but their widths may be quite small [6]. The northern hemisphere of Vesta is heavily cratered, and the southern hemisphere is dominated by two 400-500 km diameter basins that excavated deep into the crust [7-8]. Physical modeling of regolith formation on 300 km diameter asteroids predicts that debris layers would reach a few km in thickness, while on asteroids of Vesta's diameter regolith thicknesses would be less [9]. This agrees well with the estimated ≤1 km thickness of local debris excavated by a 45 km diameter vestan crater [10]. Large craters and basins may have punched through the regolith/megaregolith and exposed primary vestan crustal structures. We will use Dawn Framing Camera (FC) [11] images and color ratio maps from the High Altitude and Low Altitude Mapping Orbits (HAMO, ~65 m/pixel; LAMO, ~20 m/pixel) to evaluate structures exposed on the walls of craters: two examples are discussed here.

Mittlefehldt, David↗

What can we learn about impact mechanics from large craters on Venus?

More than 50 unequivocal peak-ring craters and multiringed impact basins have been identified on Venus from Earth-based Arecibo, Venera 15/16, and Magellan radar images. These ringed craters are relatively pristine, and so serve as an important new dataset that will further understanding of the structural and rheological properties of the venusian surface and of impact mechanics in general. They are also the most direct analogues for craters formed on the Earth in Phanerozoic time. Finite-element simulations of basin collapse and ring formation were undertaken in collaboration with V. J. Hillgren (University of Arizona). These calculations used an axisymmetric version of the viscoelastic finite element code TECTON, modeled structures on the scale of Klenova or Meitner, and demonstrated two major points. First, viscous flow and ring formation are possible on the timescale of crater collapse for the sizes of multiringed basins seen on Venus and heat flows appropriate to the plant. Second, an elastic lithosphere overlying a Newtonian viscous asthenosphere results mainly in uplift beneath the crater. Inward asthenospheric flow mainly occurs at deeper levels. Lithospheric response is dominantly vertical and flexural. Tensional stress maxima occur and ring formation by normal faulting is predicted in some cases, but these predicted rings occur too far out to explain observed ring spacings on Venus (or on the Moon). Overall, these estimates and models suggest that multiringed basin formation is indeed possible at the scales observed on Venus. Furthermore, due to the strong inverse dependence of solid-state viscosity on stress, the absence of Cordilleran-style ring faulting in craters smaller than Meitner or Klenova makes sense. The apparent increase in viscosity of shock-fluidized rock with crater diameter, greater interior temperatures accessed by larger, deeper craters, and decreased non-Newtonian viscosity associated with larger craters may conspire to make the transition with diameter from peak-ring crater to Orientale-type multiringed basin rather abrupt.

Mckinnon, William B.↗

Towards improved parameterization of a macroscale hydrologic model in a discontinuous permafrost boreal forest ecosystem

Modeling hydrological processes in the Alaskan sub-arctic is challenging because of the extreme spatial heterogeneity in soil properties and vegetation communities. Nevertheless, modeling and predicting hydrological processes is critical in this region due to its vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Coarse-spatial-resolution datasets used in land surface modeling pose a new challenge in simulating the spatially distributed and basin-integrated processes since these datasets do not adequately represent the small-scale hydrological, thermal, and ecological heterogeneity. The goal of this study is to improve the prediction capacity of mesoscale to large-scale hydrological models by introducing a small-scale parameterization scheme, which better represents the spatial heterogeneity of soil properties and vegetation cover in the Alaskan sub-arctic. The small-scale parameterization schemes are derived from observations and a sub-grid parameterization method in the two contrasting sub-basins of the Caribou Poker Creek Research Watershed (CPCRW) in Interior Alaska: one nearly permafrost-free (LowP) sub-basin and one permafrost-dominated (HighP) sub-basin. The sub-grid parameterization method used in the small-scale parameterization scheme is derived from the watershed topography. We found that observed soil thermal and hydraulic properties – including the distribution of permafrost and vegetation cover heterogeneity – are better represented in the sub-grid parameterization method than the coarse-resolution datasets. Parameters derived from the coarse-resolution datasets and from the sub-grid parameterization method are implemented into the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) mesoscale hydrological model to simulate runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture in the two sub-basins of the CPCRW. Simulated hydrographs based on the small-scale parameterization capture most of the peak and low flows, with similar accuracy in both sub-basins, compared to simulated hydrographs based on the coarse-resolution datasets. On average, the small-scale parameterization scheme improves the total runoff simulation by up to 50 % in the LowP sub-basin and by up to 10 % in the HighP sub-basin from the large-scale parameterization. This study shows that the proposed sub-grid parameterization method can be used to improve the performance of mesoscale hydrological models in the Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Towards Improved Snow Water Equivalent Estimation via GRACE Assimilation

Passive microwave (e.g. AMSR-E) and visible spectrum (e.g. MODIS) measurements of snow states have been used in conjunction with land surface models to better characterize snow pack states, most notably snow water equivalent (SWE). However, both types of measurements have limitations. AMSR-E, for example, suffers a loss of information in deep/wet snow packs. Similarly, MODIS suffers a loss of temporal correlation information beyond the initial accumulation and final ablation phases of the snow season. Gravimetric measurements, on the other hand, do not suffer from these limitations. In this study, gravimetric measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission are used in a land surface model data assimilation (DA) framework to better characterize SWE in the Mackenzie River basin located in northern Canada. Comparisons are made against independent, ground-based SWE observations, state-of-the-art modeled SWE estimates, and independent, ground-based river discharge observations. Preliminary results suggest improved SWE estimates, including improved timing of the subsequent ablation and runoff of the snow pack. Additionally, use of the DA procedure can add vertical and horizontal resolution to the coarse-scale GRACE measurements as well as effectively downscale the measurements in time. Such findings offer the potential for better understanding of the hydrologic cycle in snow-dominated basins located in remote regions of the globe where ground-based observation collection if difficult, if not impossible. This information could ultimately lead to improved freshwater resource management in communities dependent on snow melt as well as a reduction in the uncertainty of river discharge into the Arctic Ocean.

Forman, Bart↗

Investigating land surface effects on the moisture transport over South America with a moisture tagging model

Land-atmosphere interactions are a critical component of precipitation processes within the Amazon and the La Plata river basins (LPRB) in South America. The possible pathways through which the land surface can affect precipitation are: 1) by changing the amount of moisture available for precipitation (moisture recycling) and 2) by changing the atmospheric thermal structure and consequently affecting circulation patterns. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with embedded water vapor tracers (WVT) is used to disentangle these relative contributions. Using WRF-WVT we track the moisture that originates from the Amazon basin over a 10-year period. It is estimated that Amazon evapotranspiration (ET) contributes to around 30% of the total precipitation over the Amazon and around 20% over the LPRB. Analyzing moisture transport from the Amazon to the LPRB, it is found that warm (cool) surface air temperature over the northwestern Argentine is linked to low level winds and likely to induce northerly (southerly) winds that intensify (weaken) moisture transport by changing continental-scale circulation patterns.

Yang, Zhao↗