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At least 685 records · Page 38

Contextual Active Online Model Selection with Expert Advice

How can we collect the most useful labels to learn a model selection policy, when presented with arbitrary heterogeneous data streams? In this paper, we formulate this task as a contextual active model selection problem, where at each round the learner receives an unlabeled data point along with a context. The goal is to output the best model for any given context without obtaining an excessive amount of labels. In particular, we focus on the task of selecting pre-trained classifiers, and propose a contextual active model selection algorithm (CAMS), which relies on a novel uncertainty sampling query criterion defined on a given policy class for adaptive model selection. In comparison to prior art, our algorithm does not assume a globally optimal model. We provide rigorous theoretical analysis for the regret and query complexity under both adversarial and stochastic settings. Our experiments on several benchmark classification datasets demonstrate the algorithm’s effectiveness in terms of both regret and query complexity. Notably, to achieve the same accuracy, CAMS incurs less than 10% of the label cost when compared to the best online model selection baselines on CIFAR10.

Liu, Xuefeng↗

Calibration of CDM-Based Creep Constitutive Model Using Accelerated Creep Test (ACT) Data

In conventional creep testing (CCT) a specimen is subject to constant load and temperature for a long-duration until creep rupture occurs. Conventional testing can be costly when considering the number of experiments needed to characterize the creep response of a material over a range of stress and temperature. To predict long-term creep-rupture properties, the time-temperature-stress superposition principle (TTSSP) approach has been employed where stress and/or temperature is applied at an elevated level; the result of which are extrapolated down to low stress and/or temperature conditions. These methods have been successful in predicting minimum-creep-strain-rate (MCSR) and stress-rupture (SR) but suffer from an inability to predict the creep deformation curve or account for changes in deformation mechanisms or aging that occurs at long-duration. An accelerated technique, termed the Stepped isostress method (SSM) allows the accelerated testing of materials to determine their creep deformation response. Unlike TTSSP tests, the SSM test employs a single specimen where the stress is periodically step increased until rupture. The SSM creep deformation curve is processed (time and strain shifted) to produce an accelerated creep deformation curve that represent the creep deformation curve at the initial stress level in SSM. A processing procedure for metals has yet to be developed. The research objective of this study is to develop a processing procedure for SSM test data using a creep-damage constitutive model. Triplicate SSM tests were conducted on Ni-based superalloy Inconel 718 at 650°C with stress being periodically increased until rupture. Triplicate CCT tests were conducted at the initial stress level of the SSM tests. The Sine-hyperbolic (Sinh) creep-damage model was employed in this study. The Sinh creep-damage constitutive model is based on coupled creep strain rate and damage evolution equations; where both rates are dependent on the current state of damage. Calibration is two-step: analytical and numerical optimization. Each stepped creep deformation curve is tackled quasi-analytically to determine MCSR and SR related material constants and accumulated damage. The damage accumulated at the end of each step was then passed onto subsequent steps to calibrate the MCSR, rupture prediction, and damage evolution. Numerical optimization was applied to optimize model constants involved in the creep strain constitutive equations in order to generate best-fitted Sinh creep deformation curves. The Sinh model predictions were compared to the SSM and CCT data. The Sinh model satisfactorily predicts the SSM data and thus the calibrated material constants provides a good estimate of rupture found in the CCT data. Calibration using SSM data reduces the number of tests needed to calibrate a model; significantly reducing costs. A single SSM test replaces numerous creep tests at different stresses.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Joint optimization of logistics infrastructure investments and subsidies in a regional logistics network with CO 2 emission reduction targets

This study proposes an optimization model that simultaneously incorporates the selection of logistics infrastructure investments and subsidies for green transport modes to achieve specific CO 2 emission targets in a regional logistics network. The proposed model is formulated as a bi-level formulation, in which the upper level determines the optimal selection of logistics infrastructure investments and subsidies for green transport modes such that the benefit-cost ratio of the entire logistics system is maximized. The lower level describes the selected service routes of logistics users. A genetic and Frank-Wolfe hybrid algorithm is introduced to solve the proposed model. The proposed model is applied to the regional logistics network of Changsha City, China. Findings show that using the joint scheme of the selection of logistics infrastructure investments and green subsidies is more effective than using them solely. In conclusion, carbon emission reduction targets can significantly affect logistics infrastructure investments and subsidy levels.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Techno-economic optimization of renewable urea production for sustainable agriculture and CO 2 utilization

Abstract Urea is the most used nitrogen fertilizer due to its ease of storage, transportation, and application. It is made by combining ammonia and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), both of which are produced predominantly from fossil fuels at present. The recent momentum behind ammonia production using renewable-powered electrolysis offers an opportunity to both make urea in a more sustainable way and utilize CO 2 from external sources. In this work, we present a techno-economic optimization model to minimize the cost of making urea in this way. The model allows for time-varying chemical production in response to renewable variability by simultaneously optimizing production facility design and hourly operation. We performed a case study for Minnesota considering the use of byproduct CO 2 from bioethanol production. We found that the present-day levelized cost of renewable urea is between $268 mt −1 and $413 mt −1 at likely implementable production scales up to 250 000 mt yr −1 . This is within the range of historical conventional urea prices while offering at least 78% carbon intensity reduction. Projecting to 2030, there is a clear economic case for renewable urea production with levelized cost as low as $135 mt −1 due to technology improvement and electrolysis manufacturing expansion, facilitating a urea production scale increase to 525 000 mt yr −1 . Optimal facilities use wind energy, with hydrogen and ammonia production operating in a flexible, time-varying way to minimize battery and hydrogen storage capacities. Urea production operates near steady state due to the relatively low cost of intermediate ammonia buffer storage. A mix of imported methane and locally produced hydrogen are used to provide heat for steam consumed in the urea synthesis.

Chemistry↗

Mixture-of-Experts for Multi-Domain Defect Identification in Non-Destructive Inspection

Composite materials are widely used in aircraft structures because of their superior mechanical properties. However, their complex failure modes require sophisticated inspection methods to ensure structural integrity. Ultrasonic testing (UT) is a common non-destructive inspection (NDI) technique for aircraft composites that can detect internal and external defects with high resolution and accuracy. Despite their effectiveness, traditional UT methods rely on the manual interpretation of ultrasonic signals, which is time-consuming, labor-intensive, and subjective. Furthermore, processing such large-scale data, particularly across materials of varying thicknesses, significantly increases the computational demands of deep learning model optimization. To overcome these challenges, we propose an efficient sparse mixture-of-experts (MoE) model with a multi-level loss function and introduce four novel training objectives to improve computational efficiency and accuracy in identifying surface defects in composite aircraft materials. Here, we evaluated our approach on material with multiple thicknesses or domains comprising various defects. Our experimental results demonstrate higher accuracy and F1-Score, with only 10% training epochs compared to baseline MoE.

composite materials↗

Prediction of the development of islet autoantibodies through integration of environmental, genetic, and metabolic markers

The Environmental Determinants of the Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study has prospectively followed, from birth, children at increased genetic risk of type 1 diabetes. We evaluated the potential of machine learning to identify new biomarkers that predict imminent (within 6 months) development of persistent islet autoantibodies to insulin, GAD or IA-2 in TEDDY participants through integration of time-invariant risk factors with time-varying metabolomics. The predictive modeling was initiated with over 220 potential biomarkers; through ensemble-based feature evaluation, the optimal model included 42 biomarkers, returning a cross-validated receiver operating characteristic area under the curve of 0.74. The model identified a principal set of 20 time-invariant markers, including 16 single nucleotide polymorphisms and two HLA-DR genotypes, gestational age, and exposure to a prebiotic formula. Integration of the metabolome identified 22 high-priority metabolites and lipids, including adipic acid and ceramide d42:0, that predicted development of islet autoantibodies, dependent upon the time horizon. The majority (86%) of metabolites that predicted development of islet autoantibodies belonged to 3 pathways: lipid oxidation, phospholipase A2 signaling, and pentose phosphate pathway. TEDDY data suggest that these metabolic processes may play a role in triggering islet autoimmunity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Ground Level Integrated Diverse Energy Storage (GLIDES) Cost Analysis

With the increasing penetration of renewable energy, the need for advanced flexible/scalable energy storage technologies with high round-trip efficiency (RTE) and high energy density has become critical. In this paper, a techno-economic model of a novel energy storage technology developed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is presented and used to estimate the technology’s capital cost. Ground-Level Integrated Diverse Energy Storage (GLIDES) is an energy storage technology with high efficiency which can store energy via input of electricity and heat and supply dispatchable electricity. GLIDES stores energy by compressing and expanding a gas using a liquid piston. GLIDES performance has been extensively studied analytically and experimentally. This study aims to develop a comprehensive combined performance and cost modeling environment. With the desired system storage capacity kilowattage, storage time (hours), and an initial RTE guess as inputs, the model optimizes the selection of system components to minimize the capital cost. The techno-economic model described in this paper can provide preliminary cost estimates and corresponding performance for various system sizes and storage times.

Kassaee, Saiid↗

The Applications of NASA Mission Technologies to the Greening of Human Impact

I will give an overview talk about flight software systems, robotics technologies and modeling for energy minimization as applied to vehicles and buildings infrastructures. A dominant issue in both design and operations of robotic spacecraft is the minimization of energy use. In the design and building of spacecraft increased power is acquired only at the cost of additional mass and volumes and ultimately cost. Consequently, interplanetary spacecrafts are designed to have the minimum essential power and those designs often incorporate careful timing of all power use. Operationally, the availability of power is the most influential constraint for the use of planetary surface robots, such as the Mars Exploration Rovers. The amount of driving done, the amount of science accomplished and indeed the survivability of the spacecraft itself is determined by the power available for use. For the Mars Exploration Rovers there are four tools which are used: (1) models of the rover and it s thermal and power use (2) predictive environmental models of power input and thermal environment (3) fine grained manipulation of power use (4) optimization modeling and planning tools. In this talk I will discuss possible applications of this methodology to minimizing power use on Earth, especially in buildings.

Sims, Michael H.↗

NASA Tech Briefs, February 2001

The topics include: 1) Application Briefs; 2) National Design Engineering Show Preview; 3) Marketing Inventions to Increase Income; 4) A Personal-Computer-Based Physiological Training System; 5) Reconfigurable Arrays of Transistors for Evolvable Hardware; 6) Active Tactile Display Device for Reading by a Blind Person; 7) Program Automates Management of IBM VM Computer Systems; 8) System for Monitoring the Environment of a Spacecraft Launch; 9) Measurement of Stresses and Strains in Muscles and Tendons; 10) Optical Measurement of Temperatures in Muscles and Tendons; 11) Small Low-Temperature Thermometer With Nanokelvin Resolution; 12) Heterodyne Interferometer With Phase-Modulated Carrier; 13) Rechargeable Batteries Based on Intercalation in Graphite; 14) Signal Processor for Doppler Measurements in Icing Research; 15) Model Optimizes Drying of Wet Sheets; 16) High-Performance POSS-Modified Polymeric Composites; 17) Model Simulates Semi-Solid Material Processing; 18) Modular Cryogenic Insulation; 19) Passive Venting for Alleviating Helicopter Tail-Boom Loads; 20) Computer Program Predicts Rocket Noise; 21) Process for Polishing Bare Aluminum to High Optical Quality; 22) External Adhesive Pressure-Wall Patch; 23) Java Implementation of Information-Sharing Protocol; 24) Electronic Bulletin Board Publishes Schedules in Real Time; 25) Apparatus Would Extract Water From the Martian Atmosphere; 26) Review of Research on Supercritical vs Subcritical Fluids; 27) Hybrid Regenerative Water-Recycling System; 28) Study of Fusion-Driven Plasma Thruster With Magnetic Nozzle; 29) Liquid/Vapor-Hydrazine Thruster Would Produce Small Impulses; and 30) Thruster Based on Sublimation of Solid Hydrazine

Source record↗

Energy storage in combined gas-electric energy transitions models: The case of California

California’s vision for a net-zero future by 2045 relies heavily on variable renewable energy systems. Thus, energy storage - particularly long-duration storage - could play a fundamental role in reliably supplying low-carbon electricity. We study energy storage using the BRIDGES model, a combined gas-electric capacity expansion model for California across multiple investment periods (2025-2045), modeled with progressively decreasing carbon emission targets to a zero emissions by 2045. This least-cost optimization model includes renewable gas production via power-to-gas, long-term storage of energy in gaseous form, electric energy storage such as through batteries and hydrogen storage, and renewable energy generation, all with capacity tracking and investment. Multiple scenarios are evaluated to examine the sensitivity of the optimal storage portfolio to system-level and sector-level parameters. The scenario results show that all electric energy storage systems - which vary in storage duration - are deployed and required in a net-zero California in 2045, amounting to around 75 GW of storage capacity. Lithium ion systems make up approximately 80% of this power capacity and supply most short-run storage needs. Hydrogen storage - in the form of a power-to-gas-to-power system - emerges as a replacement to conventional natural gas storage, comprising most of the total energy storage capacity (~ 4 TWh). This capacity is less than 5% of the current natural gas storage capacity (94 TWh), indicating sufficient room for repurposing part of the gas infrastructure. A demand-side sensitivity analysis proves that higher electricity demand correlates with more builds of Li-ion batteries, while higher industrial heat demand leads to more builds of long-duration storage systems in a net-zero economy. Furthermore, power-to-gas systems satisfy part of the industrial heat demand by locally supplying renewable gas, which overtakes the traditional centralized gas storage and transfers through pipelines, casting significant doubts on the future of the large-scale gas infrastructure.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Optimizing complexity in the kinetic modelling of integrated flue gas purification for pressurized oxy-combustion

A 5-step mechanism and a corresponding kinetic model are presented for integrated flue gas purification, where SOx and NOx are removed during pressurized oxy-coal combustion. Three coupled subsystems (‘blocks”) of gas–liquid transformations are considered: 1) oxidation of NO to NO 2 and dissolution of NO 2 in water; 2) dissolution of SO 2 in the water; and 3) interactions between S- and N- containing substances in the liquid phase. The model has been formulated in terms of only species that can be experimentally measured (model of optimal complexity). Subsystem I is limiting regarding NO removal. Subsystem II is very fast in comparison with the other subsystems and can be treated separately. Analytical expressions for all independent subsystems have been found and compared with computational results for the whole system. The temporal domain of validity of all these subsystems is presented. Finally, the validity of the NO 2 quasi-steady-state assumption is verified, and it is reported that variables such as NO, NO 2 and HNO 3 can be considered decoupled from the whole system since they appear in only Subsystem I, while HSO 3 - and HNO 2 are coupled. The presented kinetic model was verified experimentally by determining the 1:1 ratio of HNO 2 and HNO 3 , in gas–liquid NO-O 2 interaction. Additionally, new experimental facts on kinetic orders and stoichiometry between HNO 2 and HSO 3 - have been used to optimize the model. It is concluded that all NO x - SO x interactions can be essentially grasped by a sequence of only 4 irreversible reactions considering, in addition, the 5th reaction, i.e. the fast ‘SO 2 -water’ equilibrium.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Inference of phase field fracture models

The phase field approach to modeling fracture uses a diffuse damage field to represent cracks. This representation mollifies singularities that arise in computations with sharp interface models and some of the resultant difficulties in the mathematical and numerical treatment of fracture. Phase field fracture models have proven effective at representing crack propagation, branching, and merging. Specific formulations, beginning with brittle fracture, have also been shown to converge to classical solutions. Extensions to cover the range of material failure, including ductile and cohesive fracture, lead to an array of possible models. There exists a large body of literature focusing on this class of models and on the impact of model form on the predicted crack evolution. However, there have not been systematic studies into how optimal models may be chosen. Here, we take a first step in this direction by developing formal methods for identification of the best parsimonious model of phase field fracture given full-field data on the damage and deformation fields. We consider some of the main models that have been used for the degradation of elastic response due to damage and its propagation. Our approach builds upon Variational System Identification (VSI), a weak form variant of the Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy). Furthermore, in this first communication we focus on synthetically generated data but we also consider central issues associated with the use of experimental full-field data, such as data sparsity and noise.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Energetic Potential for Demand Response in Detached Single Family Homes in Austin, TX

This study builds a generalized tool to quantify the maximum peak load reduction achievable with residential demand response and distributed energy resources (DERs). The tool is demonstrated by using empirical energy usage data from detached single family households within the service territory of Austin Energy - the local municipal utility in Austin, TX. The demand response optimization algorithm shifts energy usage of four controllable, high-consumption residential devices to off-peak hours: HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning) systems, electric water heaters, electric vehicles, and pool pumps. In addition, rooftop solar generation on individual residences is considered to reduce net load to the utility, and an energy storage system optimization model performing energy arbitrage further reduces peak demand. Results from the aggregate demand response and battery optimization study indicate that peak demand for the 2017 summer peak in Austin Energy could have been reduced by 26 MW or 2.9%. Here, by considering the combined effect of controllable consumer loads, solar generation, and energy storage systems, this study highlights the potential of strategic demand response and energy arbitrage to reduce peak demand at the distribution level.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Review of Shape and Topology Optimization for Design of Air-to-Refrigerant Heat Exchangers

Air-to-refrigerant heat exchangers (HXs) have been the topic of exhaustive research as they are fundamental components of HVAC&R systems. It has been well-established that the large airside thermal resistance dominates the HX thermal resistance, and thus significant research efforts have focused on improving the air-side performance of these heat exchangers. As HXs continue to become more compact, thermal resistance reduction is typically realized through the utilization of extended secondary heat transfer surfaces such as fins. However, past research has shown that the thermal-hydraulic trade-offs provided by fins are often not attractive enough to warrant their use, especially for small diameter tubes. Yet, the inadequate primary surface area provided by compact HXs essentially mandate the necessity of fins to meet thermal resistance requirements. In recent years, advancements in computational tools such as Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and optimization algorithms, coupled with the advent of additive manufacturing technologies, have allowed engineers to expand conventional HX design ideologies to include such concepts as shape and topology optimization. This lends itself directly to primary heat transfer surface optimization and even the potential removal of finned surfaces altogether. This paper presents a comprehensive literature review investigating air-to-refrigerant HX shape and topology optimization. The fundamentals of both shape and topology optimization, model development, and experimental validations are all separately discussed. Studies featuring manufactured prototypes and/or experimentally validated optimal designs are treated with additional emphasis. This paper concludes by identifying key research gaps and proposing future research directions for HX shape and topology optimization.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Development of Steady-State and Dynamic Mass and Energy Constrained Neural Networks for Distributed Chemical Systems Using Noisy Transient Data

The paper presents the development of algorithms for mass and energy constrained neural network models that can exactly conserve the overall mass and energy of distributed chemical process systems, even though the noisy transient data used for optimal model training violate the same. In contrast to approximately satisfying mass and energy balance constraints of a system by soft penalization of objective function, algorithms have been developed for solving equality-constrained nonlinear optimization problems, thus providing the guarantee of exactly satisfying the system mass and energy conservation laws. For developing dynamic mass-energy constrained network models for distributed systems, hybrid series and parallel dynamic-static neural networks have been leveraged. The developed algorithms for solving both the training and forward problems are validated using both steady-state and dynamic data in the presence of various noise characteristics. The developed data-driven algorithms are flexible to exactly satisfy mass and energy balance constraints for dynamic chemical processes if the system holdup information is available. The proposed network structures and algorithms are applied to the development of data-driven lumped and distributed models of an adiabatic superheater/reheater system, a nonisothermal continuous stirred tank reactor, as well as an electrically heated plug-flow reactor system where one form of energy gets transformed to another. It has been observed that the mass-energy constrained neural networks yield a root mean squared error of <1% with respect to the system truth for the case studies evaluated in this work.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The value of in-reservoir energy storage for flexible dispatch of geothermal power

Geothermal systems making use of advanced drilling and well stimulation techniques have the potential to provide tens to hundreds of gigawatts of clean electricity generation in the United States by 2050. With near-zero variable costs, geothermal plants have traditionally been envisioned as providing “baseload” power, generating at their maximum rated output at all times. However, as variable renewable energy sources (VREs) see greater deployment in energy markets, baseload power is becoming increasingly less competitive relative to flexible, dispatchable generation and energy storage. Herein we conduct an analysis of the potential for future geothermal plants to provide both of these services, taking advantage of the natural properties of confined, engineered geothermal reservoirs to store energy in the form of accumulated, pressurized geofluid and provide flexible load-following generation. We develop a linear optimization model based on multi-physics reservoir simulations that captures the transient pressure and flow behaviors within a confined, engineered geothermal reservoir. We then optimize the investment decisions and hourly operations of a power plant exploiting such a reservoir against a set of historical and modeled future electricity price series. Further, we find that operational flexibility and in-reservoir energy storage can significantly enhance the value of geothermal plants in markets with high VRE penetration, with energy value improvements of up to 60% relative to conventional baseload plants operating under identical conditions. Across a range of realistic subsurface and operational conditions, our modeling demonstrates that confined, engineered geothermal reservoirs can provide large and effectively free energy storage capacity, with round-trip storage efficiencies comparable to those of leading grid-scale energy storage technologies. Optimized operational strategies indicate that flexible geothermal plants can provide both short- and long-duration energy storage, prioritizing output during periods of high electricity prices. Sensitivity analysis assesses the variation in outcomes across a range of subsurface conditions and cost scenarios.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗