Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Persistent Availability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 685 records · Page 38
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Tracking the Sun: Installed Price Trends for Distributed Photovoltaic Systems in the United States - 2018 Edition

Berkeley Lab’s Tracking the Sun report series is dedicated to summarizing installed prices and other trends among grid-connected, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States. The present report, the 11th edition in the series, focuses on systems installed through year-end 2017, with preliminary trends for the first half of 2018. As in years past, the primary emphasis is on describing changes in installed prices over time and variation in pricing across projects based on location, project ownership, system design, and other attributes. New to this year, however, is an expanded discussion of other project characteristics in the large underlying data sample. Future editions will include more of such material, beyond the report’s traditional focus on installed pricing. The trends described in this report derive primarily from project-level data reported to state agencies and utilities that administer PV incentive programs, solar renewable energy credit (SREC) registration systems, or interconnection processes. In total, data were collected and cleaned for more than 1.3 million individual PV systems, representing 81% of U.S. residential and non-residential PV systems installed through 2017. The analysis of installed pricing trends is based on a subset of roughly 770,000 systems with available installed price data. Key findings from this year’s report include the following: -Installed Prices Continued to Fall through 2017 and into 2018. National median installed prices in 2017 were $3.7 per watt (W) for residential systems (a $0.2/W or 6% decline from the prior year), $3.1/W for small non-residential systems (a $0.4/W or 11% decline), and $2.2/W (a $0.1/W or 5% decline) for large non-residential systems. Data for the first half of 2018 show an additional drop of $0.1/W for residential and small non-residential systems, and effectively no change for large non-residential systems. These recent trends are generally consistent with the pace of price declines since 2014, and mark a slowing from the years immediately preceding (2009-2013) when prices fell by roughly $1/W per year. -Installed Prices Vary Widely Across Individual Projects. Among residential systems installed in 2017, 20% were priced below $3.0/W (the 20th percentile value) while another 20% were above the 80th percentile at $4.5/W. Non-residential systems also exhibit wide spreads, albeit shifted downward, from $2.4/W to $4.1/W for small non-residential and from $1.8/W to $2.8/W for large non-residential projects. These pricing spreads have persisted over time and are both reflective of the heterogeneity in PV systems and markets, as well as suggestive of the potential for further price declines. -Pronounced Pricing Disparities Exist Across States. State-level median installed prices in 2017 ranged from $2.6/W to $4.5/W for residential systems, from $2.2/W to $4.0/W for small non-residential systems, and from $2.1/W to $2.4/W for large non-residential systems. Three of the largest state markets (California, Massachusetts, and New York) are relatively high-priced, pulling overall U.S. median prices upward. These cross-state pricing differences reflect both idiosyncratic features of particular states as well as more-fundamental differences related to market and policy conditions. -Installed Pricing Variation Also Reflects Differences in System Design, Installer, and Customer Characteristics (among other factors). Significant pricing differences were also observed across system sizes within each customer segment (with median prices ranging from $3.2/W to $4.5/W across residential systems of varying size, and from $2.1/W to $3.7/W across non-residential systems), between third-party owned (TPO) and host-owned residential systems ($3.3/W vs. $3.8/W), across residential installers ($2.1/W to $9.6/W for host-owned systems and $1.1/W to $5.1/W for TPO systems), between residential new construction and retrofit systems in California ($2.3/W vs. $3.9/W), between large non-residential systems at commercial sites and tax-exempt customer sites ($2.1/W vs. $2.6/W), and between systems with standard vs. premium efficiency modules ($3.6/W vs. $4.2/W among residential systems). A public version of the underlying dataset can be downloaded at https://emp.lbl.gov/tracking-the-sun.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Visualization of the impatiens downy mildew pathogen using fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH)

Background: Plasmopara obducens is the biotrophic oomycete responsible for impatiens downy mildew, a destructive disease of Impatiens that causes high crop loss. Currently, there are no available methods for the microscopic detection of P. obducens from leaves of impatiens, which may be contributing to the spread of the disease. Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) is a sensitive and robust method that uses sequence-specific, fluorescence-labeled oligonucleotide probes to detect target organisms from the environment. To study this important pathogen, we developed and standardized a FISH technique for the visualization of P. obducens from Impatiens walleriana tissues using a species-specific 24-mer oligonucleotide probe designed to target a region of the rRNA internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS2). Results: Since P. obducens cannot be propagated in vitro, we developed a custom E. coli expression vector that transcribes the P. obducens rRNA-ITS target sequence (clone-FISH) for use as a control and to optimize hybridization conditions. The FISH assay could detect P. obducens sporangiophores, sporangia and oospores, and hyphae from naturally infected I. walleriana leaves and stems. Cross-reactivity was not observed from plant tissue, and the assay did not react when applied to E. coli with self-ligated plasmids and non-target oomycete species. Conclusions: This FISH protocol may provide a valuable tool for the study of this disease and could potentially be used to improve early monitoring of P. obducens , substantially reducing the persistence and spread of this destructive plant pathogen.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1994

Comparison of SBUV and SAGE II ozone profiles: Implications for ozone trends

Solar backscattered ultraviolet (SBUV) ozone profiles have been compared with Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II profiles over the period October 1984 through June 1990, when data are available from both instruments. SBUV measurements were selected to closely match the SAGE II latitude/longitude measurement pattern. There are significant differences between the SAGE II sunrise and the sunset zonal mean ozone profiles in the equatorial zone, particularly in the upper stratosphere, that may be connected with extreme SAGE II solar azimuth angles for tropical sunrise measurements. Calculation of the average sunset bias between SBUV and SAGE II ozone profiles shows that allowing for diurnal variation in Umkehr layer 10, SBUV and SAGE II agree to within +/- 5% for the entire stratosphere in the northern midlatitude zone. The worst agreement is seen at southern midlatitudes near the ozone peak (disagreements of +/- 10%), apparently the result of the SBUV ozone profile peaking at a lower altitude than SAGE. The integrated ozone columns (cumulative above 15 km) agree very well, to within +/- 2.3% in all zones for both sunset and sunrise measurements. A comparison of the time dependence of SBUV and SAGE II shows that there was less than +/- 5% relative drift over the 5.5 years for all altitudes except below 25 km, where the SBUV vertical resolution is poor. The best agreement with SAGE is seen in the integrated column ozone (cumulative above 15 km), where SAGE II has a 1% negative trend relative to SBUV over the comparison period. There is a persistent disagreement of the two instruments in Umkehr layers 9 and 10 of +/- 4% over the 5.5-year comparison period. In the equatorial zone this disagreement may be caused in part by a large positive trend (0.8 K per year) in the National Meteorologica Center temperatures used to convert the SAGE II measurement of ozone density versus altitude to a pressure scale for comparison with SBUV. In the middle stratosphere (30-40 km), SBUV shows a 2-4% negative drift relative to SAGE II. If the actual ozone trends are considered, SBUV and SAGE II agree in showing little ozone change (less than 2%) between 1984 and 1990, except in layer 3 where SAGE II measures a large ozone decrease. But over 11 years, SBUV measured a 7% per decade ozone decrease between 40 and 50 km, decreasing in magnitude at lower altitudes, in good agreement with 11-year trends derived from the average of 5 Umkehr stations.

Mcpeters, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Risk of Crew Adverse Health Event Due to Altered Immune Response

Determining the effect of space travel on the human immune system has proven to be extremely challenging. Limited opportunities for in-flight studies, varying mission durations, technical and logistical obstacles, small subject numbers, and a broad range of potential assays have contributed to this problem. Additionally, the inherent complexity of the immune system, with its vast array of cell populations, sub-populations, diverse regulatory molecules, and broad interactions with other physiological systems, makes determining precise variables to measure very difficult. There is also the challenge of determining the clinical significance of any observed immune alterations. Will such a change lead to disease, or is it a transient subclinical observation related to short-term stress? The effect of this problem may be observed by scanning publications associated with immunity and spaceflight, which began to appear during the 1970s. Although individually they are each valid studies, the comprehensive literature to date suffers from widely varying sampling methods and assay techniques, low subject counts, and sometimes a disparate focus on narrow aspects of immunity. The most clinically relevant data are derived from in-flight human studies, which have demonstrated altered cell-mediated immunity and reactivation of latent herpes viruses. Much more data are available from post-flight testing of humans, with clear evidence of altered cytokine production patterns, altered leukocyte distribution, continued latent viral reactivation, and evidence of dramatically altered virus-specific immunity. It is unknown if post-flight assessments relate to the in-flight condition or are a response to landing stress and readaptation. In-flight culture of cells has clearly demonstrated that immune cells are gravity-sensitive and display altered functional characteristics. It is unknown if these data are related to in vivo immune cell function or are an artifact of microgravity culture. Ground analog testing of humans and animals, as well as microgravity-analog cell culture, has demonstrated utility. However, in all cases, it is not known with certainty if these data would reflect similar testing during space travel. Given their ready availability, ground analogs may be extremely useful for assay development and the evaluation of potential countermeasures. In general, the evidence base suffers from widely disparate studies on small numbers of subjects that do not directly correlate well with each other or spaceflight itself. Also lacking are investigations of the effect of gender on adaption to spaceflight. This results in significant knowledge 'gaps' that must be filled by future studies to completely determine any clinical risk related to immunity for human exploration-class space missions. These gaps include a significant lack of in-flight data, particularly during long-duration space missions. The International Space Station represents an excellent science platform with which to address this knowledge gap. Other knowledge gaps include lack of a single validated ground analog for the phenomenon and a lack of flight-compatible laboratory equipment capable of monitoring astronauts (for either clinical or research purposes). However, enough significant data exist, as described in this manuscript, to warrant addressing this phenomenon during the utilization phase of the ISS. A recent Space Shuttle investigation has confirmed the 31 in-flight nature of immune dysregulation, demonstrating that it is not merely a post-flight phenomenon. Several current studies are ongoing onboard the ISS that should thoroughly characterize the phenomenon. NASA recognizes that if spaceflight-associated immune dysregulation persists during exploration flights in conjunction with other dangers, such as high-energy radiation, the result may be a significant clinical risk. This emphasizes the need for a continued integrated comprehensive approach to determining the effect of prolonged spaceflight, separated from transient launch and landing stresses, on human immunity. After such studies, the phenomenon will be understood, and, hopefully, a monitoring strategy will have been developed that could be used to monitor the effectiveness of countermeasure

Crucian, Brian↗
DOE OSTI2023

Automated Extraction of Energy Systems Information from Remotely Sensed Data: A Review and Analysis

We report high quality energy systems information is a crucial input to energy systems research, modeling, and decision-making. Unfortunately, actionable information about energy systems is often of limited availability, incomplete, or only accessible for a substantial fee or through a non-disclosure agreement. Recently, remotely sensed data (e.g., satellite imagery, aerial photography) have emerged as a potentially rich source of energy systems information. However, the use of these data is frequently challenged by its sheer volume and complexity, precluding manual analysis. Recent breakthroughs in machine learning have enabled automated and rapid extraction of useful information from remotely sensed data, facilitating large-scale acquisition of critical energy system variables. Here we present a systematic review of the literature on this emerging topic, providing an in-depth survey and review of papers published within the past two decades. We first taxonomize the existing literature into ten major areas, spanning the energy value chain. Within each research area, we distill and critically discuss major features that are relevant to energy researchers, including, for example, key challenges regarding the accessibility and reliability of the methods. We then synthesize our findings to identify limitations and trends in the literature as a whole, and discuss opportunities for innovation. These include the opportunity to extend the methods beyond electricity to broader energy systems and wider geographic areas; and the ability to expand the use of these methods in research and decision making as satellite data become cheaper and easier to access. We also find that there are persistent challenges: limited standardization and rigor of performance assessments; limited sharing of code, which would improve replicability; and a limited consideration of the ethics and privacy of data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Exploring Approaches for Accelerated Mass Spectrometric Detection of Fluorochemicals from Aqueous Solutions Using Indirect, Adsorbent-Facilitated Desorption Ionization

There is a growing need for rapid, low-cost analytical tools to screen water supplies for persistent contaminants. Due to their ubiquitous presence in the environment and their detrimental effects on human health, there is a public interest in widespread testing for perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). However, the most common methods for PFAS analysis can be time-intensive, requiring a preconcentration step followed by liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry (LC–MS), and are cost-prohibitive for most members of the public. To address these challenges, this study explores a novel method for rapid analysis of aqueous analytes by concentrating analytes on solid adsorbents and detecting them using mass spectrometric analysis via desorption ionization directly from the adsorbent surface. We demonstrate this general approach of indirect solution analysis (ISA) with desorption electrospray ionization (ISA-DESI) and laser desorption ionization (ISA-LDI). Various adsorbent materials were screened, including commercial mesoporous carbons, alumina, and metal–organic frameworks (MOFs). Using ISA-DESI, we consistently detect concentrations as low as 5–100 parts per trillion (ppt) for perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and 10–100 ppt for perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnDA). This approach enables rapid detection in under 5 min, making it suitable for applications requiring trace detection with fast response times. We further demonstrate the use of ISA-DESI on a range of environmentally relevant contaminants. Advantages of this indirect solution analysis approach include simplified sample preparation, accelerated analysis, and low cost with readily available materials, making it a promising tool to accelerate mass spectrometric PFAS detection for identifying contaminated sites, performing laboratory studies, and monitoring industrial waste streams.

Bays, Nathan Robert [Sandia National Laboratories ↗
NASA NTRS2010

Cytogenetic Biodosimetry Using the Blood Lymphocytes of Astronauts

Cytogenetic analysis of blood lymphocytes remains the most sensitive and reliable method available for in vivo assessment of the biological effects of exposure to radiation and provides the most informative measurement of radiation induced health risks. To date chromosome damage has been assessed in lymphocytes from more than 30 astronauts before and after they participated in long-duration space missions of three months or more on board the International Space Station. For all individuals, the frequency of chromosome damage measured within a month of return from space was higher than their prefight yield and biodosimetry estimates lie within the range expected from physical dosimetry. Biodosimetry data provides a direct measurement of space radiation damage, which takes into account individual radiosensitivity in the presence of confounding factors such as microgravity and other stress conditions. In contrast to physical measurements, which are external to body and require multiple devices to detect all radiation types all of which have poor sensitivity to neutrons, biodosimetry is internal and includes the effects of shielding provided by the body itself plus chromosome damage shows excellent sensitivity to protons, heavy ions, and neutrons. In addition, chromosome damage is reflective of cancer risk and biodosimetry values can therefore be used to validate and develop risk assessment models that can be used to characterize excess health risk incurred by crewmembers. A review of astronaut biodosimetry data will be presented along with recent findings on the persistence of space radiation induced chromosome damage and the cytogenetic effects of repeat long duration missions

George, Kerry↗
DOE OSTI2013

AN N-BODY INTEGRATOR FOR GRAVITATING PLANETARY RINGS, AND THE OUTER EDGE OF SATURN'S B RING

A new symplectic N-body integrator is introduced, one designed to calculate the global 360 Degree-Sign evolution of a self-gravitating planetary ring that is in orbit about an oblate planet. This freely available code is called epi{sub i}nt, and it is distinct from other such codes in its use of streamlines to calculate the effects of ring self-gravity. The great advantage of this approach is that the perturbing forces arise from smooth wires of ring matter rather than discreet particles, so there is very little gravitational scattering and so only a modest number of particles are needed to simulate, say, the scalloped edge of a resonantly confined ring or the propagation of spiral density waves. The code is applied to the outer edge of Saturn's B ring, and a comparison of Cassini measurements of the ring's forced response to simulations of Mimas's resonant perturbations reveals that the B ring's surface density at its outer edge is {sigma}{sub 0} = 195 {+-} 60 g cm{sup -2}, which, if the same everywhere across the ring, would mean that the B ring's mass is about 90% of Mimas's mass. Cassini observations show that the B ring-edge has several free normal modes, which are long-lived disturbances of the ring-edge that are not driven by any known satellite resonances. Although the mechanism that excites or sustains these normal modes is unknown, we can plant such a disturbance at a simulated ring's edge and find that these modes persist without any damping for more than {approx}10{sup 5} orbits or {approx}100 yr despite the simulated ring's viscosity {nu}{sub s} = 100 cm{sup 2} s{sup -1}. These simulations also indicate that impulsive disturbances at a ring can excite long-lived normal modes, which suggests that an impact in the recent past by perhaps a cloud of cometary debris might have excited these disturbances, which are quite common to many of Saturn's sharp-edged rings.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing model uncertainties in simulated coast-to-offshore wind over the northeast U.S. using multi-platform measurements from the TCAP field campaign

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are widely used to provide estimates of the offshore wind energy resource owing to their large spatial coverage compared to available observations. Nevertheless, spatiotemporal distribution of model biases is highly dependent on factors including model configuration, location, and the interplay of multi-scale physical processes. Here, in this study, we focus on the characterization of model uncertainties in simulated coast-to-offshore winds over the northeast U.S., by varying sea surface temperature (SST) forcings, surface layer (SL) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations, as well as identifying biases that may be directly passed from initial and boundary conditions. Multiple measurements, including aircraft data collected during the U.S. Department of Energy's Two-Column Aerosol Project (TCAP) experiment, are used to constrain the model results and facilitate quantitative comparisons. Our analysis indicates while SST forcing has notable impacts on simulated air temperature and moisture within PBL, the modeled winds are in general more sensitive to the choices of SL and PBL physics than to SST. The model’s forcing data not only controls the vertical dependence of wind speed errors, but also alters regional variability in wind speed’s spatial correlation. Bias comparisons between ERA5 reanalysis and ensemble simulations revealed significant similarity, particularly in wind speed biases during winter, underscoring their dependency on initial and boundary conditions. Coastal and offshore near-surface wind speed biases tend to exhibit much higher similarity in winter than in summer due to the presence of much stronger and more persistent synoptic wind conditions. This study highlights the importance of accurate atmospheric forcing and parameterization choices in improving wind forecasts and suggests the potential for extrapolating coastal wind biases to offshore locations, aiding wind energy forecasting and informing the Wind Forecast Improvement Project-3 (WFIP3).

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1995

Cloud Masking and Surface Temperature Distribution in the Polar Regions Using AVHRR and other Satellite Data

Surface temperature is one of the key variables associated with weather and climate. Accurate measurements of surface air temperatures are routinely made in meteorological stations around the world. Also, satellite data have been used to produce synoptic global temperature distributions. However, not much attention has been paid on temperature distributions in the polar regions. In the polar regions, the number of stations is very sparse. Because of adverse weather conditions and general inaccessibility, surface field measurements are also limited. Furthermore, accurate retrievals from satellite data in the region have been difficult to make because of persistent cloudiness and ambiguities in the discrimination of clouds from snow or ice. Surface temperature observations are required in the polar regions for air-sea-ice interaction studies, especially in the calculation of heat, salinity, and humidity fluxes. They are also useful in identifying areas of melt or meltponding within the sea ice pack and the ice sheets and in the calculation of emissivities of these surfaces. Moreover, the polar regions are unique in that they are the sites of temperature extremes, the location of which is difficult to identify without a global monitoring system. Furthermore, the regions may provide an early signal to a potential climate change because such signal is expected to be amplified in the region due to feedback effects. In cloud free areas, the thermal channels from infrared systems provide surface temperatures at relatively good accuracies. Previous capabilities include the use of the Temperature Humidity Infrared Radiometer (THIR) onboard the Nimbus-7 satellite which was launched in 1978. Current capabilities include the use of the Advance Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) aboard NOAA satellites. Together, these two systems cover a span of 16 years of thermal infrared data. Techniques for retrieving surface temperatures with these sensors in the polar regions have been developed. Errors have been estimated to range from 1K to 5K mainly due to cloud masking problems. With many additional channels available, it is expected that the EOS-Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) will provide an improved characterization of clouds and a good discrimination of clouds from snow or ice surfaces.

Comiso, Joey C.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Global Carbon Budget 2019

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (E(FF)) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (E(LUC)), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (S(OCEAN)) and terrestrial CO2 sink (S(LAND)) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B(IM)), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009–2018), E(FF) was 9.5±0.5 GtC/yr, E(LUC) 1.5±0.7 GtC/yr, G(ATM) 4.9±0.02 GtC/yr (2.3±0.01 ppm/yr), S(OCEAN) 2.5±0.6 GtC/yr, and S(LAND) 3.2±0.6 GtC/yr, with a budget imbalance B(IM) of 0.4 GtC/yr indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in E(FF) was about 2.1 % and fossil emissions increased to 10.0±0.5 GtC/yr, reaching 10 GtC/yr for the first time in history, E(LUC) was 1.5±0.7 GtC/yr, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5±0.9 GtC/yr (42.5±3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, G(ATM) was 5.1±0.2 GtC/yr (2.4±0.1 ppm/yr), S(OCEAN) was 2.6±0.6 GtC/yr, and S(LAND) was 3.5±0.7 GtC/yr, with a B(IM) of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407.38±0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6–10 months indicate a reduced growth in E(FF) of +0.6 % (range of −0.2 % to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC/yr persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013).

global carbon budget 2019↗
DOE OSTI2018

Global Carbon Budget 2018

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components ofthe global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO 2 emissions ( E FF ) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use and land-use change ( E LUC ), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate ( G ATM ) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO 2 sink ( S OCEAN ) and terrestrial CO 2 sink ( S LAND ) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance ( B IM ), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 σ . For the last decade available (2008–2017), E FF was 9.4±0.5 GtC yr -1 , E LUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr -1 , G ATM 4.7±0.02 GtC yr -1 , S OCEAN 2.4±0.5 GtC yr -1 , and S LAND 3.2±0.8 GtC yr -1 , with a budget imbalance B IM of0.5 GtC yr -1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2017 alone, the growth in E FF was about 1.6 %and emissions increased to 9.9±0.5 GtC yr -1 . Also for 2017, E LUC was 1.4±0.7 GtC yr -1 , G ATM was 4.6±0.2 GtC yr -1 , S OCEAN was 2.5±0.5 GtC yr -1 , and S LAND was 3.8±0.8 GtC yr -1 ,with a B IM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration reached 405.0±0.1 ppm averaged over 2017.For 2018, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in E FF of + 2.7 % (range of 1.8 % to 3.7 %) based on national emission projections for China, the US, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. The analysis presented here shows that the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period of 1959–2017,but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr -1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO 2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations show (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions, (2) a persistent low agreement among the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO 2 flux in the northern extra-tropics,and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO 2 variability by ocean models, originating outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018, 2016,2015a, b, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2018 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2003

Insights into the Processing of Carbon by Early Microbial Ecosystems

Interactions between Earth and the biosphere that were crucial for early biological evolution also influenced substantially the processes that circulate C between its reservoirs in the atmosphere, ocean, crust and mantle. The C-13 C-12 values of crustal carbonates and organics have recorded changes both in biological discrimination and in the relative rates of burial of organics and carbonates. A full interpretation of these patterns needs further isotopic studies of microbial ecosystems and individual anaerobes. Thus we measured carbon isotope discrimination during autotrophic and heterotrophic growth of pure cultures of sulfate-reducing bacteria and archaea (SRB and SRA). Discrimination during CO2 assimilation is significantly larger than during heterotrophic growth on lactate or acetate. SRB grown lithoautotrophically consumed less than 3% of available CO2 and exhibited substantial discrimination, as follows: Desulfobacterium autotrophicum (alpha 1.0100 to 1.0123), Desulfobacter hydrogenophilus (alpha = 0.0138), and Desulfotomuculum acetoxidans (alpha = 1.0310). Mixotrophic growth of Desulfovibrio desulfuricans on acetate and CO2 resulted in biomass with delta C-13 composition intermediate to that of the substrates. We have recently extended these experiments to include the thermophilic SRA Archeoglobus spp. Ecological forces also influence isotopic discrimination. Accordingly, we quantified the flow of C and other constituents in modern marine cyanobacterial mats, whose ancestry extends back billions of years. Such ecosystem processes shaped the biosignatures that entered sediments and atmospheres. At Guerrero Negro, BCS, Mexico, we examined mats dominated by Microcoleus (subtidal) and Lyngbya (intertidal to supratidal) cyanobacteria. During 24 hour cycles, we observed the exchange of O2 and dissolved inorganic C (DIC) between mats and the overlying water. Microcoleus mats assimilated near-equal amounts of DIC during the day as they released at night, but Lyngbya mats typically showed net uptake of DIC over the diel cycle. Patterns of O2 daytime release and nighttime uptake mirrored these DIC trends in both mat types. Nighttime DIC effluxes from Microcoleus mats were equivalent in the presence versus absence of O2, whereas nighttime DIC effluxes from Lyngbya mats dropped markedly in the absence of O2. Thus aerobic diagenesis was more important in Lyngbya mats than in Microcoleus mats, perhaps because trapped O2 bubbles persist only in Lyngbya mats at night and thus sustain populations of aerbes. In both mat types, effluxes of H2, CH4 and short-chain fatty acids were much greater at night in the absence of 02, emphasizing the importance of fermentation. Differences observed between Microcoleus versus Lyngbya mats forecast differences in their microbial populations and in their patterns of gene expression.

DesMarais, D.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Earth's Early Biosphere and the Biogeochemical Carbon Cycle

Our biosphere has altered the global environment principally by influencing the chemistry of those elements most important for life, e g., C, N, S, O, P and transition metals (e.g., Fe and Mn). The coupling of oxygenic photosynthesis with the burial in sediments of photosynthetic organic matter, and with the escape of H2 to space, has increased the state of oxidation of the Oceans and atmosphere. It has also created highly reduced conditions within sedimentary rocks that have also extensively affected the geochemistry of several elements. The decline of volcanism during Earth's history reduced the flow of reduced chemical species that reacted with photosynthetically produced O2. The long-term net accumulation of photosynthetic O2 via biogeochemical processes has profoundly influenced our atmosphere and biosphere, as evidenced by the O2 levels required for algae, multicellular life and certain modem aerobic bacteria to exist. When our biosphere developed photosynthesis, it tapped into an energy resource that was much larger than the energy available from oxidation-reduction reactions associated with weathering and hydrothermal activity. Today, hydrothermal sources deliver globally (0.13-1.1)x10(exp l2) mol yr(sup -1) of reduced S, Fe(2+), Mn(2+), H2 and CH4; this is estimated to sustain at most about (0.2-2)xl0(exp 12)mol C yr(sup -1) of organic carbon production by chemautotrophic microorganisms. In contrast, global photosynthetic productivity is estimated to be 9000x10(exp 12) mol C yr(sup -1). Thus, even though global thermal fluxes were greater in the distant geologic past than today, the onset of oxygenic photosynthesis probably increased global organic productivity by some two or more orders of magnitude. This enormous productivity materialized principally because oxygenic photosynthesizers unleashed a virtually unlimited supply of reduced H that forever freed life from its sole dependence upon abiotic sources of reducing power such as hydrothermal emanations and weathering. Communities sustained by oxygenic photosynthesis apparently thrived wherever supplies of sunlight, moisture and nutrients were sufficient. Prior to the development of oxygenic photosynthesis, the net global effect of the ancient global biosphere was to facilitate chemical equilibrium between reduced species from thermal activity and weathering and more oxidized constituents in the surface environment. But even this ancient biosphere might have been globally pervasive. The global geothermal heat flow was substantially higher during Earth's first billion years, and thus reduced chemical species might have persisted in sunlit aquatic environments. Perhaps the substantial decline in thermal activity between 4000 and 3000 Ma created a driver for oxygenic photosynthesis to develop.

DesMarais, David↗
DOE OSTI2016

Global Carbon Budget 2016

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry ( E FF ) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change ( E LUC ), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth ( G ATM ) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO 2 sink ( S OCEAN ) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in S OCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO 2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO 2 sink ( S LAND ) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 σ , reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006–2015), E FF was 9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 , E LUC 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 , G ATM 4.5 ± 0.1 GtC yr -1 , S OCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 , and S LAND 3.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr -1 . For year 2015 alone, the growth in E FF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 , showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8 % yr -1 that took place during 2006–2015. Also, for 2015, E LUC was 1.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 , G ATM was 6.3 ± 0.2 GtC yr -1 , S OCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 , and S LAND was 1.9 ± 0.9 GtC yr -1 . G ATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006–2015), reflecting a smaller S LAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration reached 399.4 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in E FF with +0.2 % (range of -1.0 to +1.8 %) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of E FF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO 2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink ( S LAND ) in response to El Niño conditions of 2015–2016. From this projection of E FF and assumed constant E LUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO 2 will reach 565 ± 55 GtC (2075 ± 205 GtCO 2 ) for 1870–2016, about 75 % from E FF and 25 % from E LUC . This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center ( doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2016 ).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

Recovery Act: The use of real-time off-site observations as a methodology for increasing forecast skill in prediction of large wind power ramps one or more hours ahead of their impact on a wind plant

Improved forecasting performance immediately preceding wind ramp events is of preeminent concern to most wind energy companies, system operators, and balancing authorities. The value of near real-time hub height-level wind data and more general meteorological measurements to short-term wind power forecasting is well understood. For some sites, access to onsite measured wind data - even historical - can reduce forecast error in the short-range to medium-range horizons by as much as 50%. Unfortunately, valuable free-stream wind measurements at tall tower are not typically available at most wind plants, thereby forcing wind forecasters to rely upon wind measurements below hub height and/or turbine nacelle anemometry. Free-stream measurements can be appropriately scaled to hub-height levels, using existing empirically-derived relationships that account for surface roughness and turbulence. But there is large uncertainty in these relationships for a given time of day and state of the boundary layer. Alternatively, forecasts can rely entirely on turbine anemometry measurements, though such measurements are themselves subject to wake effects that are not stationary. The void in free-stream hub-height level measurements of wind can be filled by remote sensing (e.g., sodar, lidar, and radar). However, the expense of such equipment may not be sustainable. There is a growing market for traditional anemometry on tall tower networks, maintained by third parties to the forecasting process (i.e., independent of forecasters and the forecast users). This study examines the value of offsite tall-tower data from the WINDataNOW Technology network for short-horizon wind power predictions at a wind farm in northern Montana. The presentation shall describe successful physical and statistical techniques for its application and the practicality of its application in an operational setting. It shall be demonstrated that when used properly, the real-time offsite measurements materially improve wind ramp capture and prediction statistics, when compared to traditional wind forecasting techniques and to a simple persistence model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2003

Jet Noise Modeling for Coannular Nozzles Including the Effects of Chevrons

Development of good predictive models for jet noise has always been plagued by the difficulty in obtaining good quality data over a wide range of conditions in different facilities.We consider such issues very carefully in selecting data to be used in developing our model. Flight effects are of critical importance, and none of the means of determining them are without significant problems. Free-jet flight simulation facilities are very useful, and can provide meaningful data so long as they can be analytically transformed to the flight frame of reference. In this report we show that different methodologies used by NASA and industry to perform this transformation produce very different results, especially in the rear quadrant; this compels us to rely largely on static data to develop our model, but we show reasonable agreement with simulated flight data when these transformation issues are considered. A persistent problem in obtaining good quality data is noise generated in the experimental facility upstream of the test nozzle: valves, elbows, obstructions, and especially the combustor can contribute significant noise, and much of this noise is of a broadband nature, easily confused with jet noise. Muffling of these sources is costly in terms of size as well as expense, and it is particularly difficult in flight simulation facilities, where compactness of hardware is very important, as discussed by Viswanathan (Ref. 13). We feel that the effects of jet density on jet mixing noise may have been somewhat obscured by these problems, leading to the variable density exponent used in most jet noise prediction procedures including our own. We investigate this issue, applying Occam s razor, (e.g., Ref. 14), in a search for the simplest physically meaningful model that adequately describes the observed phenomena. In a similar vein, we see no reason to reject the Lighthill approach; it provides a very solid basis upon which to build a predictive procedure, as we believe we demonstrate in this report. Another feature of our approach is that the analyses are all conducted with lossless spectra, rather than Standard Day spectra, as is often done in industry. We feel that it is important to isolate the effects of as many physical processes as practical. Atmospheric attenuation can then be included using the relations developed for NASA by Shields and Bass (Ref. 15), which are available in both FOOTPR and ANOPP. The current approach to coannular jet noise prediction used in FOOTPR is reported in Reference 16, which updates the earlier conventional-velocity-profile (CVP, Ref. 17) and inverted-velocity-profile (IVP, Ref. 18) models.

Stone, James R.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Development of a High Reliability Compact Air Independent PEMFC Power System

Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUV's) have received increasing attention in recent years as military and commercial users look for means to maintain a mobile and persistent presence in the undersea world. Compact, neutrally buoyant power systems are needed for both small and large vehicles. Historically, batteries have been employed in these applications, but the energy density and therefore mission duration are limited with current battery technologies. Vehicles with stored energy requirements greater than approximately 10 kWh have an alternate means to get long duration power. High efficiency Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) fuel cell systems utilizing pure hydrogen and oxygen reactants show the potential for an order of magnitude energy density improvement over batteries as long as the subsystems are compact. One key aspect to achieving a compact and energy dense system is the design of the fuel cell balance of plant (BOP). Recent fuel cell work, initially focused on NASA applications requiring high reliability, has developed systems that can meet target power and energy densities. Passive flow through systems using ejector driven reactant (EDR) circulation have been developed to provide high reactant flow and water management within the stack, with minimal parasitic losses compared to blowers. The ejectors and recirculation loops, along with valves and other BOP instrumentation, have been incorporated within the stack end plate. In addition, components for water management and reactant conditioning have been incorporated within the stack to further minimize the BOP. These BOP systems are thermally and functionally integrated into the stack hardware and fit into the small volumes required for AUV and future NASA applications to maximize the volume available for reactants. These integrated systems provide a compact solution for the fuel cell BOP and maximize the efficiency and reliability of the system. Designs have been developed for multiple applications ranging from less than 1 kWe to 70 kWe. These systems occupy a very small portion of the overall energy system, allowing most of the system volume to be used for reactants. The fuel cell systems have been optimized to use reactants efficiently with high stack efficiency and low parasitic losses. The resulting compact, highly efficient fuel cell system provides exceptional reactant utilization and energy density. Key design variables and supporting test data are presented. Future development activities are described.

Vasquez, Arturo↗