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Soil Moisture Estimation in South Asia via Assimilation of SMAP Retrievals

A soil moisture retrieval assimilation framework is implemented across South Asia in an attempt to improve regional soil moisture estimation as well as to provide a consistent regional soil moisture dataset. This study aims to improve the spatiotemporal variability of soil moisture estimates by assimilating Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) near-surface soil moisture retrievals into a land surface model. The Noah-MP (v4.0.1) land surface model is run within the NASA Land Information System software framework to model regional land surface processes. NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA2) and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals (IMERG) provide the meteorological boundary conditions to the land surface model. Assimilation is carried out using both cumulative distribution function (CDF)-corrected (DA-CDF) and uncorrected SMAP retrievals (DA-NoCDF). CDF matching is applied to correct the statistical moments of the SMAP soil moisture retrieval relative to the land surface model. Comparison of assimilated and model-only soil moisture estimates with publicly available in situ measurements highlights the relative improvement in soil moisture estimates by assimilating SMAP retrievals. Across the Tibetan Plateau, DA-NoCDF reduced the mean bias and RMSE by 8.4 % and 9.4 %, even though assimilation only occurred during less than 10 % of the study period due to frozen (or partially frozen) soil conditions. The best goodness-of-fit statistics were achieved for the IMERG DA-NoCDF soil moisture experiment. The general lack of publicly available in situ measurements across irrigated areas limited a domain-wide direct model validation. However, comparison with regional irrigation patterns suggested correction of biases associated with an unmodeled hydrologic phenomenon (i.e., anthropogenic influence via irrigation) as a result of SMAP soil moisture retrieval assimilation. The greatest sensitivity to assimilation was observed in cropland areas. Improvements in soil moisture potentially translate into improved spatiotemporal patterns of modeled evapotranspiration, although limited influence from soil moisture assimilation was observed on modeled processes within the carbon cycle such as gross primary production. Improvement in fine-scale modeled estimates by assimilating coarse-scale retrievals highlights the potential of this approach for soil moisture estimation over data-scarce regions.

Jawairia Ahmad↗

Hemispherically Asymmetric Volcanic Forcing of Tropical Hydroclimate During the Last Millennium

Volcanic aerosols exert the most important natural radiative forcing of the last millennium. State-of-the-art paleoclimate simulations of this interval are typically forced with diverse spatial patterns of volcanic forcing, leading to different responses in tropical hydroclimate. Recently, theoretical considerations relating the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) position to the demands of global energy balance have emerged in the literature, allowing for a connection to be made between the paleoclimate simulations and recent developments in the understanding of ITCZ dynamics. These energetic considerations aid in explaining the well-known historical, paleoclimatic, and modeling evidence that the ITCZ migrates away from the hemisphere that is energetically deficient in response to asymmetric forcing. Here we use two separate general circulation model (GCM) suites of experiments for the last millennium to relate the ITCZ position to asymmetries in prescribed volcanic sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere and related asymmetric radiative forcing. We discuss the ITCZ shift in the context of atmospheric energetics and discuss the ramifications of transient ITCZ migrations for other sensitive indicators of changes in the tropical hydrologic cycle, including global streamflow. For the first time, we also offer insight into the large-scale fingerprint of water isotopologues in precipitation (delta sup 18 Op) in response to asymmetries in radiative forcing. The ITCZ shifts away from the hemisphere with greater volcanic forcing. Since the isotopic composition of precipitation in the ITCZ is relatively depleted compared to areas outside this zone, this meridional precipitation migration results in a large-scale enrichment (depletion) in the isotopic composition of tropical precipitation in regions the ITCZ moves away from (toward). Our results highlight the need for careful consideration of the spatial structure of volcanic forcing for interpreting volcanic signals in proxy records and therefore in evaluating the skill of Common Era climate model output.

Radiative forcing↗

Astronaut observations of the Persian (Arabian) Gulf during STS-45

As a result of the 1991 Persian Gulf war, between mid-January and June 1991, the Persian Gulf was contaminated with an estimated 4 to 6 million barrels of crude oil, released directly into the Gulf from refinement facilities, transhipment terminals, and moored tankers along the coast of Kuwait, and precipitated from oil fire smoke plumes. To assess the environmental impact of the oil, an international team of marine scientists representing 14 nations was assembled under the auspices of the United Nations International Oceanic Commission and the Regional Organization for Protection of the Marine Environment to conduct detailed surveys of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman, including hydrographic, chemical, and biological measurements. To supplement the field surveys and to serve as an aid in data interpretation, astronauts aboard the Space Shuttle Atlantis photographed water features and coastal habitats in the Persian Gulf during mission STS-45 (24 March to 02 April 1992). The astronauts collected 111 hand-held, color photographs of the Gulf (72 70-mm photographs and 39 5-inch photographs) from an altitude of 296 km (160 n.mi.). The photographs reveal distributions in water turbidity associated with outflow from the Shatt-al-Arab and water circulation along the entire coast of Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, coastal wetlands and shallow-water habitats, and sticks appearing in the sunglint pattern, which appear to be oil.

Ackleson, Steven G.↗

Millimeter-scale variations of stable isotope abundances in carbonates from banded iron-formations in the Hamersley Group of Western Australia

Several diamond drill cores from formations within the Hamersley Group of Western Australia have been studied for evidence of short-range variations in the isotopic compositions of the carbonates. For a set of 32 adjacent microbands analyzed in a specimen from the Marra Mamba Iron Formation, carbon isotope compositions of individual microbands ranged from -2.8 to -19.8 per mil compared to PDB and oxygen isotope compositions ranged from 10.2 to 20.8 per mil compared to SMOW. A pattern of alternating abundances was present, with the average isotopic contrasts between adjacent microbands being 3.0 per mil for carbon and 3.1 per mil for oxygen. Similar results were obtained for a suite of 34 microbands (in four groups) from the Bruno's Band unit of the Mount Sylvia Formation. Difficulties were experienced in preparing samples of single microbands from the Dales Gorge Member of the Brockman Iron Formation, but overall isotopic compositions were in good agreement with values reported by previous authors. Chemical analyses showed that isotopically light carbon and oxygen were correlated with increased concentrations of iron. The preservation of these millimeter-scale variations in isotopic abundances is interpreted as inconsistent with a metamorphic origin for the isotopically light carbon in the BIF carbonates. A biological origin is favored for the correlated variations in 13C and Fe, and it is suggested that the 13C-depleted carbonates may derive either from fermentative metabolism or from anaerobic respiration. A model is presented in which these processes occur near the sediment-water interface and are coupled with an initial oxidative precipitation of the iron.

NASA Program Exobiology↗

Interannual Variability in Soil Trace Gas (CO2, N2O, NO) Fluxes and Analysis of Controllers

Interannual variability in flux rates of biogenic trace gases must be quantified in order to understand the differences between short-term trends and actual long-term change in biosphere-atmosphere interactions. We simulated interannual patterns (1983-1988) of global trace gas fluxes from soils using the NASA Ames model version of CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) in a transient simulation mode. This ecosystem model has been recalibrated for simulations driven by satellite vegetation index data from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) over the mid-1980s. The predicted interannual pattern of soil heterotropic CO2 emissions indicates that relatively large increases in global carbon flux from soils occurred about three years following the strong El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event of 1983. Results for the years 1986 and 1987 showed an annual increment of +1 Pg (1015 g) C-CO2 emitted from soils, which tended to dampen the estimated global increase in net ecosystem production with about a two year lag period relative to plant carbon fixation. Zonal discrimination of model results implies that 80-90 percent of the yearly positive increments in soil CO2 emission during 1986-87 were attributable to soil organic matter decomposition in the low-latitudes (between 30 N and 30 S). Soils of the northern middle-latitude zone (between 30 N and 60 N) accounted for the residual of these annual increments. Total annual emissions of nitrogen trace gases (N2O and NO) from soils were estimated to vary from 2-4 percent over the time period modeled, a level of variability which is consistent with predicted interannual fluctuations in global soil CO2 fluxes. Interannual variability of precipitation in tropical and subtropical zones (30 N to 20 S appeared to drive the dynamic inverse relationship between higher annual emissions of NO versus emissions of N2O. Global mean emission rates from natural (heterotrophic) soil sources over the period modeled (1983-1988) were estimated at 57.1 Pg C-CO2yr-1, 9.8Tg (1012 g) N-NO yr-1, and 9.7 Tg N-N2O yr-1. Chemical fertilizer contributions to global soil N gas fluxes were estimated at between 1.3 to 7.3 Tg N-NO yr-1, and 1.2 to 4.0 Tg N-N2O yr-1.

Potter, C.↗

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation at the Shuttle Landing Facility is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF5), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. This study specifically addresses the skill of different model configurations in forecasting warm season convective initiation. Numerous factors influence the development of convection over the Florida peninsula. These factors include sea breezes, river and lake breezes, the prevailing low-level flow, and convergent flow due to convex coastlines that enhance the sea breeze. The interaction of these processes produces the warm season convective patterns seen over the Florida peninsula. However, warm season convection remains one of the most poorly forecast meteorological parameters. To determine which configuration options are best to address this specific forecast concern, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which has two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) was employed. In addition to the two dynamical cores, there are also two options for a "hot-start" initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS; McGinley 1995) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS; Brewster 1996). Both LAPS and ADAS are 3- dimensional weather analysis systems that integrate multiple meteorological data sources into one consistent analysis over the user's domain of interest. This allows mesoscale models to benefit from the addition of highresolution data sources. Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, provides SMG and MLB with considerable flexibility as well as challenges. It is the goal of this study to assess the different configurations available and to determine which configuration will best predict warm season convective initiation.

Watson, Leela R.↗

Characteristics of the field-aligned current system in the nighttime sector during auroral substorms

Fujii et al. (1994) obtained characteristics of the electrodynamic parameters, that is, field-aligned currents, electric fields, and electron precipitation, which are associted with auroral substorm events in the nighttime sector, through a unique analysis that places the ionospheric measurements of these parameters into the context of a generic substorm determined from global auroral images. In this paper we investigate in considerably more detail the characteristics of the field-aligned currents using data from the same set of passes as the previuos study. We show for the first time that the net upward field-aligned currents throughout the surge and surge horn are sufficient to account for most if not all of the converging currents of the auroral electrojets. Current densities are largest in the surge and surge horn. Current region continuity does not appear to exist across the substorm bulge region. Much of the auroral substorm field-aligned current is composed of filamentary currents and finite current segments at large angles to each other. The westward electrojet may contain large gradients in intensity both in local time and latitude due to sets of localized field-aligned currents. The net downward current for several hours to the west of the surge is insufficient to account for the eastward electrojet, consistent with the concept that this electrojet originates primarily on the dayside. Our pattern of field-aligned currents associated with the surge has common features and also differs significantly from the patterns previously derived from data from radars and ground-based magnetometer arrays. Our pattern is considerably more complex, probably due to the much higher resolution in latitude of the satellite data. It is also larger in area, since our average substorm is much larger than those pertaining to the previous patterns, giving a substorm wedge considerably wider than that obtained from the radar and array data.

Hoffman, R. A.↗

Clustering Days with Similar Airport Weather Conditions

On any given day, traffic flow managers must often rely on past experience and intuition when developing traffic flow management initiatives that mitigate imbalances between the aircraft demand and the weather impacted airport capacity. The goal of this study was to build on recent efforts to apply data mining classification and clustering algorithms to vast archives of historical weather and air traffic data to identify patterns and past decisions that can ultimately inform day-of-operations decision-making. More specifically, this study identified similar weather impacted days at select U.S. airports, and analyzed the traffic management initiatives implemented on these representative days. The identification of the similar days was accomplished by applying a decision tree algorithm to the hourly Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program observations and the arrival delays for Newark Liberty International Airport. The branches from the trained decision tree were subsequently pruned to identify four weather conditions that resulted in medium to high delays for the arrivals scheduled to Newark in 2012. Using these weather conditions, four, daily airport-level Weather Impacted Traffic Index values were calculated using the Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program observations and the 2012 scheduled arrival counts from the FAAs Aviation System Performance Metric system. The four, daily Weather Impacted Traffic Index values for 2012 were subsequently clustered using an Expectation Maximization clustering algorithm, and nine unique types of weather days at Newark were identified. By far the most prominent type of day at Newark was a day associated with relatively good weather conditions, where there was little convective activity, winds were low, ceilings and visibility were high and there was little precipitation. Moderate levels of convective activity characterized the next most prominent type of day. Days with persistently high winds or low ceiling and visibility levels were relatively rare in 2012. Lastly, the frequency at which Ground Delay Programs, Ground Stops and Miles-in-Trail restrictions were implemented on each of the typical types of days at Newark were analyzed. Based on the results, it does appear as if the usage of Miles-in-Trail, Ground Delay Program and Ground Stop restrictions correlates well with the severity of the weather associated with each unique type of weather impacted day at Newark. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that it is feasible to use historical weather and air traffic archives to provide guidance on the types of traffic management restrictions to implement in response to the weather conditions impacting an airport.

traffic flow management↗

Clustering Days with Similar Airport Weather Conditions

On any given day, traffic flow managers must often rely on past experience and intuition when developing traffic flow management initiatives that mitigate imbalances between the aircraft demand and the weather impacted airport capacity. The goal of this study was to build on recent efforts to apply data mining classification and clustering algorithms to vast archives of historical weather and air traffic data to identify patterns and past decisions that can ultimately inform day-of-operations decision-making. More specifically, this study identified similar weather impacted days at select U.S. airports, and analyzed the traffic management initiatives implemented on these representative days. The identification of the similar days was accomplished by applying a decision tree algorithm to the hourly Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program observations and the arrival delays for Newark Liberty International Airport. The branches from the trained decision tree were subsequently pruned to identify four weather conditions that resulted in medium to high delays for the arrivals scheduled to Newark in 2012. Using these weather conditions, four, daily airport-level Weather Impacted Traffic Index values were calculated using the Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program observations and the 2012 scheduled arrival counts from the FAAs Aviation System Performance Metric system. The four, daily Weather Impacted Traffic Index values for 2012 were subsequently clustered using an Expectation Maximization clustering algorithm, and nine unique types of weather days at Newark were identified. By far the most prominent type of day at Newark was a day associated with relatively good weather conditions, where there was little convective activity, winds were low, ceilings and visibility were high and there was little precipitation. Moderate levels of convective activity characterized the next most prominent type of day. Days with persistently high winds or low ceiling and visibility levels were relatively rare in 2012. Lastly, the frequency at which Ground Delay Programs, Ground Stops and Miles-in-Trail restrictions were implemented on each of the typical types of days at Newark were analyzed. Based on the results, it does appear as if the usage of Miles-in-Trail, Ground Delay Program and Ground Stop restrictions correlates well with the severity of the weather associated with each unique type of weather impacted day at Newark. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that it is feasible to use historical weather and air traffic archives to provide guidance on the types of traffic management restrictions to implement in response to the weather conditions impacting an airport.

weather↗

Changing Hydroclimate Dynamics and the 19th to 20th Century Wetting Trend in the English Channel Region of Northwest Europe

Northwestern Europe has experienced a trend of increasingly wet winters over the past 150 years, with few explanations for what may have driven this hydroclimatic change. Here we use the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA), a tree-ring based reconstruction of the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), to examine this wetting trend and place it in a longer hydroclimatic context. We find that scPDSI variability in northwestern Europe is strongly correlated with the leading mode of the OWDA during the last millennium (1000–2012). This leading mode, here named the ‘English Channel’ (EC) mode, has pronounced variability on interannual to centennial timescales and has an expression in scPDSI similar to that of the East Atlantic teleconnection pattern. A shift in the EC mode from a prolonged negative phase to more neutral conditions during the 19th and 20th centuries is associated with the wetting trend over its area of influence in England, Wales, and much of northern continental Europe. The EC mode is the dominant scPDSI mode from approximately 1000–1850, after which its dominance waned in favor of the secondary ‘North–South’ (NS) mode, which has an expression in scPDSI similar to that of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We examine the dynamical nature of both of these modes and how they vary on interannual to centennial timescales. Our results provide insight into the nature of hydroclimate variability in Europe before the widespread availability of instrumental observations.

hydroclimate↗

Low Frequency Oscillations in Assimilated Global Datasets Using TRMM Rainfall Observations

Global datasets for the period May-August 1998 from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data assimilation system (DAS) with/without assimilated Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation are analyzed against European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) output, NOAA observed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data, and TRMM measured rainfall. The purpose of this study is to investigate the representation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in GEOS assimilated global datasets, noting the impact of TRMM observed rainfall on the MJO in GEOS data assimilations. A space-time analysis of the OLR data indicates that the observed OLR exhibits a spectral maximum for eastward-propagating wavenumber 1-3 disturbances with periods of 20-60 days in the 0deg-30degN latitude band. The assimilated OLR has a similar feature but with a smaller magnitude. However, OLR spectra from assimilations including TRMM rainfall data show better agreement with observed OLR spectra than spectra from assimilations without TRMM rainfall. Similar results are found for wavenumber 4-6 disturbances. There is a spectral peak for eastward-propagating wavenumber 4-6 disturbances with periods of 20-40 days near the equator, while for westward-moving disturbances, a spectral peak is noted for periods of 30-50 days near 25degN. To isolate the MJO, a 30-50 day band filter is selected for this study. It was found that the eastward-propagating waves from the band-filtered observed OLR between 10degs- 10degN are located in the eastern hemisphere. Similar patterns are evident in surface rainfall and the 850 hPa wind field. Assimilation of TRMM-observed rainfall reveals more distinct MJO features in the analysis than without rainfall assimilation. Similar analyses are also conducted over the Indian summer monsoon and East Asia summer monsoon regions, where the MJO is strongly related to the summer monsoon active-break patterns.

Tao, Li↗

Wind Retrieval Algorithms for the IWRAP and HIWRAP Airborne Doppler Radars with Applications to Hurricanes

Algorithms for the retrieval of atmospheric winds in precipitating systems from downward-pointing, conically-scanning airborne Doppler radars are presented. The focus in the paper is on two radars: the Imaging Wind and Rain Airborne Profiler(IWRAP) and the High-altitude IWRAP (HIWRAP). The IWRAP is a dual-frequency (Cand Ku band), multi-beam (incidence angles of 30 50) system that flies on the NOAAWP-3D aircraft at altitudes of 2-4 km. The HIWRAP is a dual-frequency (Ku and Kaband), dual-beam (incidence angles of 30 and 40) system that flies on the NASA Global Hawk aircraft at altitudes of 18-20 km. Retrievals of the three Cartesian wind components over the entire radar sampling volume are described, which can be determined using either a traditional least squares or variational solution procedure. The random errors in the retrievals are evaluated using both an error propagation analysis and a numerical simulation of a hurricane. These analyses show that the vertical and along-track wind errors have strong across-track dependence with values of 0.25 m s-1 at nadir to 2.0 m s-1 and 1.0 m s-1 at the swath edges, respectively. The across-track wind errors also have across-track structure and are on average, 3.0 3.5 m s-1 or 10 of the hurricane wind speed. For typical rotated figure four flight patterns through hurricanes, the zonal and meridional wind speed errors are 2 3 m s-1.Examples of measured data retrievals from IWRAP during an eyewall replacement cycle in Hurricane Isabel (2003) and from HIWRAP during the development of Tropical Storm Matthew (2010) are shown.

atmospheric winds↗

A meteorological interpretation of the Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE) 3B flight series

The Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE) 3B was conducted to determine the summertime tropospheric distribution, sources, and sinks of important trace gas and aerosol species over the wetlands and boreal forests of central and eastern Canada. Isentropic trajectories and analyzed midtropospheric circulation patterns were used to group flights according to the transport histories of polar, midlatitude, or tropical air masses which were sampled. These data were then divided into bands of potential temperature levels representing the low, middle, and maximum aircraft altitudes to assess the effects of both local and long distance transport and natural and man-made pollutants to the measured chemical species. Detailed case studies are provided to depict the complex three-dimensional airflow regimes that transported air with differing chemical signatures to the study area. Mission 6 details the large-scale movement of smoke in the generally prevailing west to northwesterly airflow that was observed on the majority of flights. Mission 1 analyzes the horizontal and vertical motions of maritime Pacific air in the upper troposphere that was routinely mixed downward to the aircraft altitude. Finally, mission 14 tracks the far northward excursion of tropical air that had been associated with a Pacific typhoon. The following three factors all had important influences on the collected chemical data sets: (1) local and distant stratospheric in puts into the upper and middle troposphere; (2) biomass-burning plumes from active fires in Alaska and Canada; (3) a band of 'low ozone' upper tropospheric air that was observed by airborne differential absorption lidar (DIAL) above the aircraft maximum altitude. Other modification factors observed on some flights included urban pollution from U.S. and Canadian cities, tropical air that had been associated with a Pacific typhoon, and precipitation scavenging by clouds and rain. Many flights were affected by several of the above factors which led to complex chemical signatures that will be discussed in other companion papers.

Shipham, Mark C.↗

Contributions of GRACE to Climate Monitoring

The NASA/German Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) was launched in March 2002. Rather than looking downward, GRACE continuously monitors the locations of and precise distance between twin satellites which orbit in tandem about 200 km apart. Variations in mass near Earth's surface cause heterogeneities in its gravity field, which in turn affect the orbits of satellites. Thus scientists can use GRACE data to map Earth's gravity field with enough accuracy to discern month to month changes caused by ocean circulation and redistribution of water stored on and in the land. Other gravitational influences, such as atmospheric circulation, post-glacial rebound, and solid earth movements are either independently determined and removed or are negligible on a monthly to sub-decadal timescale. Despite its coarse spatial (>150,000 sq km at mid-latitudes) and temporal (approx monthly) resolutions, GRACE has enabled significant advancements in the oceanic, hydrologic, and cryospheric science, and has great potential for climate monitoring, because it is the only global observing system able to measure ocean bottom pressures, total terrestrial water storage, and ice mass changes. The best known GRACE results are estimates of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet loss rates. Previously, scientists had estimated ice mass losses using ground and satellite based altimetry and surface mass balance estimates based on snowfall accumulation and glacier discharge. While such measurements are still very useful for their spatial detail, they are imperfectly correlated with large-scale ice mass changes, due to snow and ice compaction and incomplete spatial coverage. GRACE enables scientists to generate monthly time series of Greenland and Antarctic ice mass, which have confirmed the shrinking of the polar ice sheets, one of the most obvious and indisputable manifestations of climate change. Further, GRACE has located and quantified hot spots of ice loss in southeastern Greenland and western Antarctica. For 2002 to present, the rate of ice mass loss has been 200 to 300 GT/yr in Greenland and 70 to 210 GT/yr in Antarctica, and some scientists are suggesting that the rates are accelerating. Similarly, GRACE has been used to monitor mass changes in alpine glaciers. Tamisiea et al. first characterized glacier melt along the southern coast of Alaska, more recently estimated to be occurring at a rate of 84 GT/yr. Chen et al. estimated that Patagonian glaciers are melting at a rate of 28 GT/yr, and estimated that the high mountains of central Asia lose ice at a rate of 47 GT/yr. Tapley et al. and Wahr et al. presented the first GRACE based estimates of changes in column-integrated terrestrial water storage (TWS; the sum of ground-water, soil moisture, surface waters, snow, ice, and water stored in vegetation) at continental scales. Since then, dozens of studies have shown that GRACE based estimates of regional to continental scale TWS variations agree with independent information, and some innovative uses of GRACE data have been developed. Rodell et al. (2004) and Swenson and Wahr (2006) demonstrated that by combining GRACE derived terrestrial water storage changes with observations of precipitation and runoff in a river basin scale water budget, it was possible to produce new estimates of evapotranspiration and atmospheric moisture convergence, essential climate variables that are difficult to estimate accurately. Similarly, GRACE has been used to constrain estimates of global river discharge and the contribution of changes in TWS to sea level rise. Crowley et al. observed a negative correlation between interannual TWS anomalies in the Amazon and the Congo River basin. Yeh et al. and Rodell et al. estimated regionally averaged groundwater storage variations based on GRACE and auxiliary observations. Rodell et al. and Tiwari et al. applied that method to quantify massive groundwater depletion in northern India caused by over reliance on aquifers for irration, and Famiglietti et al. found a similar situation in California's Central Valley. Zaitchik et al. and Lo et al. described approaches to use GRACE to constrain hydrological models, enabling integration of GRACE data with other observations and achieving much higher spatial and temporal resolutions than GRACE alone. Such approaches are now supporting applications including drought and water resources monitoring. Oceanography has likewise benefitted from the independent nature of GRACE observations. One application is measurement of the mass component of sea level rise, which complements radar altimetry and in situ measurements. GRACE also measures ocean bottom pressures (OBP), which help to refine understanding and modeling of ocean circulation and the ocean's fresh water budget, among other things. For example, Hayakawa et al. showed that GRACE observes OBP patterns absent from the background models of oceanic variability. Morison et al. used GRACE to describe important decadal scale shifts in circulation and an ongoing trend of freshening of the western Arctic, important indicators of climate variability. The research of Song and Zlotnicki and Chambers and Willis on GRACE-derived ocean bottom pressures in the sub-polar gyre led to the discovery of an ENSO teleconnection and a long-term change in OBP in the North Pacific sub-polar gyre that was not predicted by an ocean model. Further, Chambers and Willis were able to identify an internal redistribution of mass between Atlantic and Pacific Oceans lasting at least six years, which was not predicted by ocean models and was the first direct evidence of sustained mass transport from one ocean basin to another on periods longer than a year. Boening et al. observed a record increase in OBP over part of the southeastern Pacific in late 2009 and early 2010, primarily caused by wind stress curl associated with a strong and persistent anticyclone and likely related to the concurrent Central Pacific El Nino. GRACE has far surpassed its 5-year design lifetime, but it will likely succumb to the aging of batteries and instrument systems sometime in the next few years. NASA has begun initial development of a follow-on to GRACE with very similar design, which could launch as soon as 2016 and would provide continuity in the data record while improving resolution slightly. Higher resolution time variable gravity missions are also on the drawing board .

Rodell, Matthew↗

Simulation of the Impact of New Aircraft and Satellite-Based Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on H*Wind Analyses

Accurate observations of surface ocean vector winds (OVW) with high spatial and temporal resolution are required for understanding and predicting tropical cyclones. As NASA's QuikSCAT and Navy's WindSat operate beyond their design life, many members of the weather and climate science communities recognize the importance of developing new observational technologies and strategies to meet the essential need for OVW information to improve hurricane intensity and location forecasts. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is an innovative technology development which offers new and unique remotely sensed satellite observations of both extreme oceanic wind events and strong precipitation. It is based on the airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which is the only proven remote sensing technique for observing tropical cyclone (TC) ocean surface wind speeds and rain rates. The proposed HIRAD instrument advances beyond the current nadir viewing SFMR to an equivalent wide-swath SFMR imager using passive microwave synthetic thinned aperture radiometer (STAR) technology. This sensor will operate over 4-7 GHz (C-band frequencies) where the required TC remote sensing physics has been validated by both SFMR and WindSat radiometers. The instrument is described in more detail in a paper by Jones et al. presented to the Tropical Meteorology Special Symposium at this AMS Annual Meeting. Simulated HIRAD passes through a simulation of hurricane Frances are being developed to demonstrate HIRAD estimation of surface wind speed over a wide swath in the presence of heavy rain. These are currently being used in "quick" OSSEs (Observing System Simulation Experiments) with H'Wind analyses as the discriminating tool. The H'Wind analysis, a product of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA's Atlantic , Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, brings together wind measurements from a variety of observation platforms into an objective analysis of the distribution of wind speeds in a tropical cyclone. This product is designed to improve understanding of the extent and strength of the wind field, and to improve the assessment of hurricane intensity. See http://www.aoml.noaa._ov/hrd/data sub/wind.html. Observations have been simulated from both aircraft altitudes and space. The simulated flight patterns for the aircraft platform cases have been designed to duplicate the timing and flight patterns used in routine NOAA and USAF hurricane surveillance flights, and the spaceborne case simulates a TRMM orbit and altitude.

Miller, TImothy L.↗

Optimizing Orbit-Instrument Configuration for Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) Satellite Fleet

Following the scientific success of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spearheaded by a group of NASA and NASDA scientists, their external scientific collaborators, and additional investigators within the European Union's TRMM Research Program (EUROTRMM), there has been substantial progress towards the development of a new internationally organized, global scale, and satellite-based precipitation measuring mission. The highlights of this newly developing mission are a greatly expanded scope of measuring capability and a more diversified set of science objectives. The mission is called the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM). Notionally, GPM will be a constellation-type mission involving a fleet of nine satellites. In this fleet, one member is referred to as the "core" spacecraft flown in an approximately 70 degree inclined non-sun-synchronous orbit, somewhat similar to TRMM in that it carries both a multi-channel polarized passive microwave radiometer (PMW) and a radar system, but in this case it will be a dual frequency Ku-Ka band radar system enabling explicit measurements of microphysical DSD properties. The remainder of fleet members are eight orbit-synchronized, sun-synchronous "constellation" spacecraft each carrying some type of multi-channel PMW radiometer, enabling no worse than 3-hour diurnal sampling over the entire globe. In this configuration the "core" spacecraft serves as a high quality reference platform for training and calibrating the PMW rain retrieval algorithms used with the "constellation" radiometers. Within NASA, GPM has advanced to the pre-formulation phase which has enabled the initiation of a set of science and technology studies which will help lead to the final mission design some time in the 2003 period. This presentation first provides an overview of the notional GPM program and mission design, including its organizational and programmatic concepts, scientific agenda, expected instrument package, and basic flight architecture. Following this introduction, we focus specifically on the last topic, that being an analysis which leads to an optimal flight architecture dictated in part by science requirements but constrained by allowable orbital mechanics, instrument scan patterns, and antenna aperture properties. Because the optimal architecture involves an interplay between orbit mechanics and instrument specifications, it is important to recognize that in attempting to serve various scientific themes, the final optimal architecture will represent a compromise concerning dynamic range, spatial resolution, sampling interval, pointing, beam coincidence, and measurement uncertainty. Moreover, cost becomes a major factor in seeking the optimal architecture through the pathways of antenna and instrument scan designs, as well as propulsion requirements associated with the orbit heights of various "constellation" members. Although the results presented at the IGARSS-2001 meeting will likely not be the fully refined flight architecture specifications, they are expected to be nearly complete.

Smith, Eric A.↗

Simulation of the Indian Summer Monsoon Using Comprehensive Atmosphere-land Interactions, in the Absence of Two-way Air-sea Interactions

Community Land Model version 2 (CLM2) as a comprehensive land surface model and a simple land surface model (SLM) were coupled to an atmospheric climate model to investigate the role of land surface processes in the development and the persistence of the South Asian summer monsoon. Two-way air-sea interactions were not considered in order to identify the reproducibility of the monsoon evolution by the comprehensive land model, which includes more realistic vertical soil moisture structures, vegetation and 2-way atmosphere-land interactions at hourly intervals. In the monsoon development phase (May and June). comprehensive land-surface treatment improves the representation of atmospheric circulations and the resulting convergence/divergence through the improvements in differential heating patterns and surface energy fluxes. Coupling with CLM2 also improves the timing and spatial distribution of rainfall maxima, reducing the seasonal rainfall overestimation by approx.60 % (1.8 mm/d for SLM, 0.7 mm/dI for CLM2). As for the interannual variation of the simulated rainfall, correlation coefficients of the Indian seasonal rainfall with observation increased from 0.21 (SLM) to 0.45 (CLM2). However, in the mature monsoon phase (July to September), coupling with the CLM2 does not exhibit a clear improvement. In contrast to the development phase, latent heat flux is underestimated and sensible heat flux and surface temperature over India are markedly overestimated. In addition, the moisture fluxes do not correlate well with lower-level atmospheric convergence, yielding correlation coefficients and root mean square errors worse than those produced by coupling with the SLM. A more realistic representation of the surface temperature and energy fluxes is needed to achieve an improved simulation for the mature monsoon period.

Monsoon Precipitation↗

Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies During Two Persistent North American Droughts: 1932-1939 and 1948-1957

We use an early twentieth century (1908-1958) atmospheric reanalysis, based on assimilation of surface and sea level pressure observations, to contrast atmospheric circulation during two periods of persistent drought in North America: 1932-1939 (the Dust Bowl) and 1948-1957. Primary forcing for both droughts is believed to come from anomalous sea surface temperatures (SSTs): a warm Atlantic and a cool eastern tropical Pacific. For boreal winter (October-March) in the 1950s, a stationary wave pattern originating from the tropical Pacific is present, with positive centers over the north Pacific and north Atlantic ocean basins and a negative center positioned over northwest North America and the tropical/subtropical Pacific. This wave train is largely absent for the 1930s drought; boreal winter height anomalies are organized much more zonally, with positive heights extending across northern North America. For boreal summer (April-September) during the 1930s, a strong upper level ridge is centered over the Great Plains; this feature is absent during the 1950s and appears to be linked to a weakening of the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ). Subsidence anomalies are co-located over the centers of each drought: in the central Great Plains for the 1930s and in a band extending from the southwest to the southeastern United States for the 1950s. The location and intensity of this subsidence during the 1948-1957 drought is a typical response to a cold eastern tropical Pacific, but for 1932-1939 deviates in terms of the expected intensity, location, and spatial extent. Overall, circulation anomalies during the 1950s drought appear consistent with the expected response to the observed SST forcing. This is not the case for the 1930s, implying some other causal factor may be needed to explain the Dust Bowl drought anomalies. In addition to SST forcing, the 1930s were also characterized by massive alterations to the land surface, including regional-scale devegetation from crop failures and intensive wind erosion and dust storms. Incorporation of these land surface factors into a general circulation model greatly improves the simulation of precipitation and subsidence anomalies during this drought, relative to simulations with SST forcing alone. Even with additional forcing from the land surface, however, the model still has difficulty reproducing some of the other circulation anomalies, including weakening of the GPLLJ and strengthening of the upper level ridge during AMJJAS. This may be due to either weaknesses in the model or uncertainties in the boundary condition estimates. Still, analysis of the circulation anomalies supports the conclusion of an earlier paper (Cook et al. in Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:4997, 2009), demonstrating that land degradation factors are consistent with the anomalous nature of the Dust Bowl drought.

Cook, Benjamin↗