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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 685 records · Page 38
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Comparative analysis of the sensitivity of nanometallic thin film thermometers

Thin film platinum resistive thermometers are conventionally applied for resistance thermometry techniques due to their stability and proven measurement accuracy. Depending upon the required thermometer thickness and temperature measurement, however, performance benefits can be realized through the application of alternative nanometallic thin films. Herein, a comparative experimental analysis is provided on the performance of nanometallic thin film thermometers most relevant to microelectronics and thermal sensing applications: Al, Au, Cu, and Pt. Sensitivity is assessed through the temperature coefficient of resistance, measured over a range of 10–300 K for thicknesses nominally spanning 25–200 nm. In this work, the interplay of electron scattering sources, which give rise to the temperature-dependent TCR properties for each metal, are analyzed in the framework of a Mayadas–Shatzkes based model. Despite the prevalence of evaporated Pt thin film thermometers, Au and Cu films fabricated in a similar manner may provide enhanced sensitivity depending upon thickness. These results may serve as a guide as the movement toward smaller measurement platforms necessitates the use of smaller, thinner metallic resistance thermometers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sneaking in SpyCatcher using cell penetrating peptides for in vivo imaging

Abstract In vivo imaging of protein complexes is a powerful method for understanding the underlying biological function of these key biomolecules. Though the engineering of small, high affinity nanobodies have become more prevalent, the off-rates of these tags may result in incomplete or partial labeling of proteins in live cells. The SpyCatcher003 and SpyTag split protein system allow for irreversible, covalent binding to a short target peptide unlike nanobody-affinity based probes. However, delivering these tags into a cell without disrupting its normal function is a key challenge. Cell penetrating peptides (CPPs) are short peptide sequences that facilitate the transduction of otherwise membrane-impermeable ‘cargo’ , such as proteins, into cells. Here we report on our efforts to engineer and characterize CPP-SpyCatcher003 fusions as modular imaging probes. We selected three CPPs, CUPID, Pentratin, and pVEC, to engineer fusion protein probes for superresolution microscopy, with the aim to eliminate prior permeabilization treatments that could introduce imaging artifacts. We find that fusing the CPP sequences to SpyCatcher003 resulted in dimer and multimer formation as determined by size exclusion chromatography, dynamic light scattering, and SDS resistant dimers on SDS-PAGE gels. By isolating and labeling the monomeric forms of the engineered protein, we show these constructs retained their ability to bind SpyTag and all three CPP sequences remain membrane active, as assessed by CD spectroscopy in the presence of SDS detergent. Using fluorescence and super resolution Lattice structured illumination microscopy (Lattice SIM) imaging we show that the CPPs did not enhance uptake of SpyCatcher by E. coli, however with Caulobacter crescentus cells, we show that Penetratin, and to a lesser degree CUPID, does enhance uptake. Our results demonstrate the ability of the CPP-SpyCatcher003 to label targets within living cells, providing the groundwork for using split protein systems for targeted in vivo imaging.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Operational space and performance limiting events in the first physics campaign of MAST-U

Abstract The MAST-U fusion plasma research device, an upgrade to the Mega Amp Spherical Tokamak, has recently completed its first campaign of physics operation. MAST-U operated with Ohmic, or one or two neutral beams for heating, at 400–800 kA plasma current, in conventional or ‘SuperX’ divertor configurations. Equilibrium reconstructions provide key plasma physics parameters vs. time for each discharge, and diagrams are produced which show where the prevalence of operation occurs as well as the limits in various operational spaces. When compared to stability limits, the operation of MAST-U so far has generally stayed out of the low q , low density instability region, and below the high density Greenwald limit, high beta global stability limit, and high elongation vertical stability limit. MAST-U still has the potential to reach higher elongation, which could benefit the plasma performance. Despite the majority of operations happening below established stability limits, disruptions do occur in the flat-top phase of MAST-U plasmas. The reasons for these disruptions are highlighted, and possible strategies to avoid them and to extend the operational space of MAST-U in future campaigns are discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Foundations of machine learning for low-temperature plasmas: methods and case studies

Abstract Machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence have proven to be an invaluable tool in tackling a vast array of scientific, engineering, and societal problems. The main drivers behind the recent proliferation of ML in practically all aspects of science and technology can be attributed to: (a) improved data acquisition and inexpensive data storage; (b) exponential growth in computing power; and (c) availability of open-source software and resources that have made the use of state-of-the-art ML algorithms widely accessible. The impact of ML on the field of low-temperature plasmas (LTPs) could be particularly significant in the emerging applications that involve plasma treatment of complex interfaces in areas ranging from the manufacture of microelectronics and processing of quantum materials, to the LTP-driven electrification of the chemical industry, and to medicine and biotechnology. This is primarily due to the complex and poorly-understood nature of the plasma-surface interactions in these applications that pose unique challenges to the modeling, diagnostics, and predictive control of LTPs. As the use of ML is becoming more prevalent, it is increasingly paramount for the LTP community to be able to critically analyze and assess the concepts and techniques behind data-driven approaches. To this end, the goal of this paper is to provide a tutorial overview of some of the widely-used ML methods that can be useful, amongst others, for discovering and correlating patterns in the data that may be otherwise impractical to decipher by human intuition alone, for learning multivariable nonlinear data-driven prediction models that are capable of describing the complex behavior of plasma interacting with interfaces, and for guiding the design of experiments to explore the parameter space of plasma-assisted processes in a systematic and resource-efficient manner. We illustrate the utility of various supervised, unsupervised and active learning methods using LTP datasets consisting of commonly-available, information-rich measurements (e.g. optical emission spectra, current–voltage characteristics, scanning electron microscope images, infrared surface temperature measurements, Fourier transform infrared spectra). All the ML demonstrations presented in this paper are carried out using open-source software; the datasets and codes are made publicly available. The FAIR guiding principles for scientific data management and stewardship can accelerate the adoption and development of ML in the LTP community.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Resilience–runtime tradeoff relations for quantum algorithms

Abstract A leading approach to algorithm design aims to minimize the number of operations in an algorithm’s compilation. One intuitively expects that reducing the number of operations may decrease the chance of errors. This paradigm is particularly prevalent in quantum computing, where gates are hard to implement and noise rapidly decreases a quantum computer’s potential to outperform classical computers. Here, we find that minimizing the number of operations in a quantum algorithm can be counterproductive, leading to a noise sensitivity that induces errors when running the algorithm in non-ideal conditions. To show this, we develop a framework to characterize the resilience of an algorithm to perturbative noises (including coherent errors, dephasing, and depolarizing noise). Some compilations of an algorithm can be resilient against certain noise sources while being unstable against other noises. We condense these results into a tradeoff relation between an algorithm’s number of operations and its noise resilience. We also show how this framework can be leveraged to identify compilations of an algorithm that are better suited to withstand certain noises.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

The look-elsewhere effect from a unified Bayesian and frequentist perspective

When searching over a large parameter space for anomalies such as events, peaks, objects, or particles, there is a large probability that spurious signals with seemingly high signi ficance will be found. This is known as the look-elsewhere effect and is prevalent throughout cosmology, (astro)particle physics, and beyond. To avoid making false claims of detection, one must account for this effect when assigning the statistical significance of an anomaly. This is typically accomplished by considering the trials factor, which is generally computed numerically via potentially expensive simulations. In this paper we develop a continuous generalization of the Bonferroni and Sidak corrections by applying the Laplace approximation to evaluate the Bayes factor, and in turn relating the trials factor to the prior-to-posterior volume ratio. Here, we use this to define a test statistic whose frequentist properties have a simple interpretation in terms of the global p-value, or statistical significance. We apply this method to various physics-based examples and show it to work well for the full range of p-values, i.e. in both the asymptotic and non-asymptotic regimes. We also show that this method naturally accounts for other model complexities such as additional degrees of freedom, generalizing Wilks' theorem. This provides a fast way to quantify statistical significance in light of the look-elsewhere effect, without resorting to expensive simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Polarization-shape alignment of IllustrisTNG star-forming galaxies

In star-forming disk galaxies, the radio continuum emission (1–10GHz) powered by star formation has an integrated polarization direction imperfectly aligned with the apparent disk minor axis. This polarization-shape alignment effect was previously observed in a small sample of local spirals. If this is prevalent for disk galaxies out to cosmological redshifts, novel measurements of cosmic birefringence and cosmic shear will be enabled by leveraging radio continuum surveys such as the Square Kilometre Array synergized with galaxy shape measurements. We calculate the polarization-shape misalignment angle for star-forming galaxies in the IllustrisTNG50 simulation at 0 < z < 2, assuming that additional polarized radio emission from an active galactic nucleus is negligible in at least a sizable fraction of the star-forming galaxies. The alignment found for z = 0 is consistent with local spiral data, but significantly deteriorates as redshift increases. Moreover, it degrades toward lower frequencies due to internal Faraday depolarization. Thanks to cosmic redshifting, observing higher-z galaxies at a fixed frequency greatly mitigates degradation due to reduced Faraday depolarization at the source-frame frequency. We present analytic fits to the non-Gaussian misalignment angle distribution, and evaluate Fisher information per galaxy for measuring a polarization rotation angle induced by cosmic birefringence. For observation at 4.8 GHz, the effective root-mean-square misalignment angle σα,eff is 18°, 23° and 33° at z = 0, 1 and 2, respectively. Analyzing N independent galaxies reduces the uncertainty on an isotropic cosmic birefringence signal to σ α,eff /√(N), providing competitive sensitivity once large samples are available. As accurate observation-driven models are not yet available for cosmological galaxy samples, our results motivate pilot observations to empirically characterize polarization-shape alignment, and can facilitate forecasts of cosmology and fundamental physics applications that exploit this effect.

axions↗
DOE OSTI2020

A semi-supervised machine learning detector for physics events in tokamak discharges

Databases of physics events have been used in various fusion research applications, including the development of scaling laws and disruption avoidance algorithms, yet they can be time-consuming and tedious to construct. This paper presents a novel application of the label spreading semi-supervised learning algorithm to accelerate this process by detecting distinct events in a large dataset of discharges, given few manually labeled examples. A high detection accuracy (> 85%) for H-L back transitions and initially rotating locked modes is demonstrated on a dataset of hundreds of discharges from DIII-D with manually identified events for which only 3 discharges are initially labeled by the user. Lower yet reasonable performance (~75%) is also demonstrated for the core radiative collapse, an event with a much lower prevalence in the dataset. Additionally, analysis of the performance sensitivity indicates that the same set of algorithmic parameters is optimal for each event. Furthermore, this suggests that the method can be applied to detect a variety of other events not included in this paper, given that the event is well described by a set of 0D signals robustly available on many discharges. Procedures for analysis of new events are demonstrated, showing automatic event detection with increasing fidelity as the user strategically adds manually labeled examples. Detections on Alcator C-Mod and EAST are also shown, demonstrating the potential for this to be used on a multi-tokamak dataset.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Energetic particle loss mechanisms in reactor-scale equilibria close to quasisymmetry

Abstract Collisionless physics primarily determines the transport of fusion-born alpha particles in 3D equilibria. Several transport mechanisms have been implicated in stellarator configurations, including stochastic diffusion due to class transitions, ripple trapping, and banana drift-convective orbits. Given the guiding center dynamics in a set of six quasihelical and quasiaxisymmetric equilibria, we perform a classification of trapping states and transport mechanisms. In addition to banana drift convection and ripple transport, we observe substantial non-conservation of the parallel adiabatic invariant which can cause losses through diffusive banana tip motion. Furthermore, many lost trajectories undergo transitions between trapping classes on longer time scales, either with periodic or irregular behavior. We discuss possible optimization strategies for each of the relevant transport mechanisms. We perform a comparison between fast ion losses and metrics for the prevalence of mechanisms such as banana-drift convection (Velasco et al 2021 Nucl. Fusion 61 116059), transitioning orbits, and wide orbit widths. Quasihelical configurations are found to have natural protection against ripple-trapping and diffusive banana tip motion leading to a reduction in prompt losses.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Density fluctuation statistics and turbulence spreading at the edge of L–mode plasmas

Long-wavelength density fluctuations ($k{\rho _i}$ <1) are studied using beam emission spectroscopy (BES) at the edge of DIII-D L-mode plasmas (ρ = 0.88–1.1) in scenarios with electron cyclotron heating (ECH) power ramp (P ECH up to 1.5 MW), neutral beam injection (NBI) power ramp (P NBI up to 2.5 MW), and injected torque scan (-1 < T inj <0.6 Nm). We find that broadband turbulent density fluctuations (ƒ ~ 20–120 kHz) have a non-Gaussian distribution. The skewness of $\delta n/n$ changes sign from negative at ρ < 0.95–0.97 to positive at ρ > 0.97, indicating the prevalence of density 'voids' at inner radii and density 'blobs' at outer radii and outside of the separatrix. The turbulence intensity flux $\left\langle {{{\tilde v}_{\text{r}}}{{\tilde n}^2}} \right\rangle$ is calculated to characterize turbulence spreading at the plasma edge. During ECH/NBI power ramps and at counter-I p injected torque, $\left\langle {{{\tilde v}_{\text{r}}}{{\tilde n}^2}} \right\rangle$ is directed inward inside the separatrix, which is evidence of inward spreading of turbulence intensity from the edge gradient region caused by the inner propagation of density 'voids'. Significantly weaker $\left\langle {{{\tilde v}_{\text{r}}}{{\tilde n}^2}} \right\rangle$ is observed with co-I p torque. A correlation between co-I p torque, turbulence intensity $\delta n/n$ at ρ = 0.97, and increased srape-off layer (SOL) heat flux decay length ${\lambda _q}$ is found in the torque scan scenario, showing that edge turbulence plays a material role in determining the SOL conditions and heat flux width.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Transport and confinement physics: Chapter 2 of the special issue: on the path to tokamak burning plasma operation

Progress in physics understanding and theoretical model development of plasma transport and confinement (TC) in the ITPA TC Topical Group since the publication of the ITER Physics Basis (IPB) document (Doyle et al 2007 Nucl. Fusion 47 S18) was summarized focusing on the contributions to ITER and burning plasma prediction and control. This paper provides a general and streamlined overview on the advances that were mainly led by the ITPA TC joint experiments and joint activities for the last 15 years (see JEX/JA table in appendix). This paper starts with the scientific strategy and scope of the ITPA TC Topical group and overall picture of the major progress, followed by the progress of each research field: particle transport, impurity transport, ion and electron thermal turbulent transport, momentum transport, impact of 3D magnetic fields on transport, confinement mode transitions, global confinement, and reduced transport modeling. Cross references with other Topical Groups are given in order to highlight overlapped topics, such as the 3D effect on the plasma transport in the edge and L-H transition physics. The increasing overlap between the topical groups is a reflection of the progress on integrating the known physics into comprehensive models that are better and better able to reproduce the plasma transport. In recent years, such integration has become increasingly prevalent when considering transport from the SOL, through the edge pedestal, and into the plasma core. In the near future, increased collaboration also with the magneto-hydrodynamic and energetic particles community will be important as we approach burning plasma conditions in next-step fusion devices. A summary of remaining challenges and next steps for each research field is given in the Summary section.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparing wind turbine aeroelastic response predictions for turbines with increasingly flexible blades

Highly flexible blades are becoming more prevalent designs as a potential solution to the transportation challenges associated with large-scale wind turbine rotors. However, there is currently no quantitative definition of “highly flexible” blades. To further develop turbines with highly flexible blades, a precise definition of the term and accurate simulations of turbines with such blades are required. Assumptions made in the traditional aerodynamic model, Blade Element Momentum (BEM) theory, are violated in turbines with flexible blades. However, Free Vortex Wake (FVW) methods can more accurately model these turbine designs. Though more computationally expensive than BEM, FVW methods are still computationally tractable for use in iterative turbine design. The purpose of this work was to determine the blade flexibility at which BEM and FVW methods begin to produce diverging aeroelastic response results. This was accomplished by simulating the BAR-DRC reference turbine with increasingly flexible blades in a range of steady, uniform inflow conditions using OpenFAST, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s physics-based turbine engineering tool. Blade-tip deflections confirmed that BEM and FVW results diverge as blade flexibility increases. For the 212 m rotor diameter turbine used in this study, the two methods largely agreed for smaller blade deflections. But their results differed by an average of 5% when the out-of-plane blade-tip deflections exceeded 5% of the blade length and in-plane blade-tip deflections exceeded 1.25% of the blade length, with percent differences approaching 25% at the largest deflections.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Aeroservoelastic Stability of a Floating Wind Turbine

The problem of negative damping undermines the aeroservoelastic stability of floating offshore wind turbines. The negative damping problem is most prevalent around rated wind speed, where the sensitivity of thrust to wind speed is the largest. This paper investigates the implementation of peak shaving, a controller feature that limits the rated thrust by pitching the blades before rated wind speed is reached. Two controller designs are investigated: a de-tuned controller and a nacelle-feedback controller. A time-domain metric is defined, inspired by Lyapunov theory, in order to compute and assess the stability of floating offshore wind turbines. The model of the International Energy Agency 15-MW reference wind turbine mounted on the University of Maine VolturnUS-S floater is simulated in HAWC2 with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory reference open-source controller. Peak shaving is applied to the two controller designs and stability is assessed. According to the chosen metric, peak shaving does not improve the stability of the system. This is due to the trade-off between loads and error tracking: although the loads and displacements in the fore-aft direction of the turbine are reduced, the rotor-speed tracking is poorer, which increases the shaft torsion fatigue load.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Speeding up particle track reconstruction using a parallel Kalman filter algorithm

One of the most computationally difficult problems expected for the High-Luminosity Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC) is determining the trajectory of charged particles during event reconstruction. Algorithms used at the LHC today rely on Kalman filtering, which builds physical trajectories incrementally while incorporating material effects and error estimation. Recognizing the need for faster computational throughput, we have adapted Kalman-filter-based methods for highly parallel, many-core SIMD architectures that are now prevalent in high-performance hardware. In this paper, we discuss the design and performance of the improved tracking algorithm, referred to as mkFit. A key piece of the algorithm is the Matriplex library, containing dedicated code to optimally vectorize operations on small matrices. The physics performance of the mkFit algorithm is comparable to the nominal CMS tracking algorithm when reconstructing tracks from simulated proton-proton collisions within the CMS detector. We study the scaling of the algorithm as a function of the parallel resources utilized and find large speedups both from vectorization and multi-threading. mkFit achieves a speedup of a factor of 6 compared to the nominal algorithm when run in a single-threaded application within the CMS software framework.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Design methodologies and engineering applications for ecosystem biomimicry: an interdisciplinary review spanning cyber, physical, and cyber-physical systems

Abstract Ecosystem biomimicry is a promising pathway for sustainable development. However, while typical form- and process-level biomimicry is prevalent, system-level ecosystem biomimicry remains a nascent practice in numerous engineering fields. This critical review takes an interdisciplinary approach to synthesize trends across case studies, evaluate design methodologies, and identify future opportunities when applying ecosystem biomimicry to engineering practices, including cyber systems (CS), physical systems (PS), and cyber-physical systems (CPS). After systematically sourcing publications from major databases, the papers were first analyzed at a meta level for their bibliographic context and for statistical correlations among categorical variables. Then, we investigated deeper into the engineering applications and design methodologies. Results indicate that CPS most frequently mimic organisms and ecosystems, while CS and PS frequently mimic populations-communities and molecules-tissues-organ systems, respectively (statistically highly significant). An indirect approach is most often used for mimicry at organizational levels from populations to ecosystems, while a direct approach frequently suits levels from molecules to organisms (highly significant). Dominant themes across engineering applications include symbiotic organism search algorithms for CS and ecological network analysis for CPS, while PS are highly diverse. For design methodologies, this work summarizes and details ten well-documented biomimetic process models among literature, which addresses an outdated concern for a lack of systematic methods for ecosystem biomimicry. In addition to the Biomimetics Standard ISO 18458, these methods include the Natural Step and Techno-Ecological Synergy framework, among others. Further, the analyses revealed future opportunities from less utilized design methods (e.g. interdisciplinary teams tackling indirect, ecosystem-level projects) to well-established engineering concepts ready for technological advancement (e.g. implementing membrane computing for physical applications). For future studies, this review provides a comprehensive reference for ecosystem biomimetic design practices and application opportunities across multiple engineering domains.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Shifting agricultural practices to produce sustainable, low carbon intensity feedstocks for biofuel production

The carbon intensity (CI) of biofuel's well-to-pump life cycle is calculated by life cycle analysis (LCA) to account for the energy/material inputs of the feedstock production and fuel conversion stages and the associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during these stages. The LCA is used by the California Air Resources Board's Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) program to calculate CI and monetary credits are issued based on the difference between a given fuel's CI and a reference fuel's CI. Through the Tier 2 certification program under which individual fuel production facilities can submit their own CIs with their facility input data, the LCFS has driven innovative technologies to biofuel conversion facilities, resulting in substantial reductions in GHG emissions as compared to the baseline gasoline or diesel. A similar approach can be taken to allow feedstock petition in the LCFS so that lower-CI feedstock can be rewarded. Here we examined the potential for various agronomic practices to improve the GHG profiles of corn ethanol by performing feedstock-level CI analysis for the Midwestern United States. Our system boundary covers GHG emissions from the cradle-to-farm-gate activities (i.e. farm input manufacturing and feedstock production), along with the potential impacts of soil organic carbon change during feedstock production. We conducted scenario-based CI analysis of ethanol, coupled with regionalized inventory data, for various farming practices to manage corn fields, and identified key parameters affecting cradle-to-farm-gate GHG emissions. The results demonstrate large spatial variations in CI of ethanol due to farm input use and land management practices. In particular, adopting conservation tillage, reducing nitrogen fertilizer use, and implementing cover crops has the potential to reduce GHG emissions per unit corn produced when compared to a baseline scenario of corn–soybean rotation. This work shows a large potential emission offset opportunity by allowing feedstock producers a path to Tier 2 petitions that reward low-CI feedstocks and further reduce biofuels' CI. The prevalence of significant acreage that has not been optimized for CI suggests that policy changes that incentivize optimization of this parameter could provide significant additionality over current trends in farm efficiency and adoption of conservation practice.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes over the United States in CMIP6 simulations

Quantifying how climate change may impact precipitation extremes is a priority for informing adaptation and policy planning. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 global climate models are analyzed to identify robust signals of projected changes in summer and winter precipitation extremes over the United States (US). Under a projected fossil-fuel based economic (i.e. high greenhouse gas emissions) scenario, our results show consistent changes in the seasonal patterns for many precipitation extremes by the end of the 21st century. We find a robust projected increase in the intensity of winter precipitation across models, with less agreement during the summer. Similarly, a robust projected amplification of heavy precipitation over the northern US is evident in winter, while intermodel spread is prevalent in summer projections. Specifically, the heavy and very heavy winter precipitation days (R10mm and R20mm) exhibit larger increases compared to other aspects of precipitation. Additionally, changes in dry extremes (e.g. consecutive dry days) are found to differ significantly across various subregions and seasons. Overall, our results suggest that the US may suffer more natural disasters such as floods and droughts in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Examining future changes in coastal low-level jet properties offshore California through dynamical downscaling

The coastal low-level jet, or coastal low-level jet (CLLJ), is a synoptically-forced meteorological feature frequently present offshore the western United States (U.S.). Characterized by a wind speed maximum that resides at the top of the marine boundary layer, the CLLJ is largely controlled by the location and strength of the North Pacific High (NPH) as well as the coastal geometry. Considering the rich wind resource available in this offshore region, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management identified wind energy lease areas offshore California and supported the deployment of two U.S. Department of Energy wind lidar buoys near Morro Bay and Humboldt. Despite our relatively good understanding of the fundamental mechanisms responsible for large-scale CLLJ properties offshore the western U.S., future changes in CLLJ characteristics are less clear. To address this research challenge, and ultimately to better inform future wind turbine deployments, we use simulations driven by three global climate models (GCMs). We apply self-organizing maps to the model outputs for a historical and two future climate periods to show the range of NPH regimes that support CLLJ conditions during the warm seasons, as well as the subtle contribution from land-falling cyclones approaching the mainland during the cold seasons. Compared to the historical period, the three GCM-driven simulations agree that CLLJ conditions will become more (less) prevalent from central California northward (southward). They agree less with respect to future changes in maximum CLLJ wind speeds and CLLJ heights. However, after considering model biases present during the historical period, wind speeds between the models are actually more similar during the 2070–2095 period than during the historical period. The potential combination of more frequent CLLJ conditions characterized by relatively consistent wind speeds occurring at lower heights across northern California suggests that the Humboldt lease area may be ideal for a long-term wind turbine deployment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗