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DOE OSTI2024

Measuring Sustainability of Solar Modules for Energy Transition: Mass, Energy, and Circularity

Transition to a carbon-free energy system is crucial for global decarbonization and underpins Circular Economy (CE) goals. Photovoltaic (PV) technology is required for Energy Transition, but manufacturing and circular pathways can be material, energy, and carbon-intensive. Therefore, we need a prioritization of sustainability strategies for PV evolution and lifecycle management in the context of Energy Transition. This study employs a suite of quantitative metrics to compare different proposed sustainability strategies for PV modules on their ability to achieve Energy Transition. Proposals for sustainable PV range from high-yield, high-efficiency paradigms, to short-lived and fully recyclable, to long-lasting, indestructible modules. We leverage a global decarbonization deployment schedule through 2100 with the open-source PV in Circular Economy (PV ICE) tool to quantify the impacts of different evolving module design scenarios covering the range of proposed sustainability strategies. First, modules are compared on effective capacity and required replacements to meet and maintain decarbonization capacity targets through 2100. We demonstrate the effects of lifetime, degradation, and reliability on effective capacity. Next, we quantify and compare virgin material demands and lifecycle wastes, examining the impacts of lifetime and recycling rates. Finally, and critically for renewable energy technologies, we quantify the energy demands required to achieve the decarbonization capacity targets and calculate energy balance metrics (net energy, energy return on investment). These results are then summarized into a metric matrix, demonstrating tradeoffs and the importance of longevity. Our suite of mass and energy metrics provides stakeholders and decision-makers with quantitative data on circular economy choices for PV in the energy transition, enabling informed evaluation of tradeoffs of different PV module designs and CE pathways.

circular economy↗

NASA NTRS2001

Effect of Under-Resolved Grids on High Order Methods

There has been much discussion on verification and validation processes for establishing the credibility of CFD simulations. Since the early 1990s, many of the aeronautical and mechanical engineering related reference journals mandated that any accepted articles in numerical simulations (without known solutions to compared with) need to perform a minimum of one level of grid refinement and time step reduction. Due to the difficulty in analysis, the effect of under-resolved grids and the nonlinear behavior of available spatial discretizations, are scarcely discussed in the literature. Here, an under-resolved numerical simulation is one where the grid spacing being used is too coarse to resolve the smallest physically relevant scales of the chosen continuum governing equations that are of interest to the numerical modeler. With the advent of new developments in fourth-order or higher spatial schemes, it has become common to regard high order schemes as more accurate, reliable and require less grid points. The danger comes when one tries to perform computations with the coarsest grid possible while still hoping to maintain numerical results sufficiently accurate for complex flows, and especially, data-limited problems. On one hand, high order methods when applies to highly coupled multidimensional complex nonlinear problems might have different stability, convergence and reliability behavior than their well studied low order counterparts, especially for nonlinear schemes such as TVD, MUSCL with limiters, ENO, WENO and discrete Galerkin. On the other hand, high order methods involve more operation counts and systematic grid convergence study can be time consuming and prohibitively expansive. At the same time it is difficult to fully understand or categorize the different nonlinear behavior of finite discretizations, especially at the limits of under-resolution when different types of bifurcation phenomena might occur, depending on the combination of grid spacings, time steps, initial conditions and numerical treatments of boundary conditions.

Yee, H. C.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Imputation of urban environmental sensor data using gated attention bidirectional long short-term memory (GA-BiLSTM): methods, performance, and implications

Urban environmental monitoring networks frequently encounter significant data gaps due to sensor malfunctions, environmental disturbances, and communication failures. Reliable approaches to address these gaps are essential for ensuring the continuity and quality of environmental data streams. In this study, we developed a gated attention bidirectional long short-term memory (GA-BiLSTM) model to impute missing data in a dense urban monitoring network. Using observations from the CROCUS network in Chicago, we evaluated GA-BiLSTM against widely used approaches (XGBoost and K-nearest neighbors) under scenarios of both short-term intermittent gaps and prolonged outages. GA-BiLSTM consistently outperformed comparative methods, particularly during extended outages of up to ten days, demonstrating its ability to capture spatiotemporal dependencies across sensor nodes. Beyond performance metrics, feature importance and spatial network analyses highlighted the unexpected but critical predictive role of peripheral rural nodes, underlining their strategic value for maintaining robust urban monitoring systems. These results emphasize that advanced imputation methods can substantially improve the reliability of environmental monitoring networks and support more resilient data infrastructures for urban sustainability.

Data imputation↗

DOE OSTI2026

Experimental Evaluation of a High-Performance Cold-Climate Heat Pump Using Tandem Vapor-Injection Compressors

A high-performance cold-climate heat pump (CCHP) was developed and experimentally validated through comprehensive laboratory and field testing. The system utilized two equal-size tandem vapor-injection (VI) compressors with an inter-stage flash tank to improve efficiency and capacity retention under subfreezing conditions. Laboratory testing was conducted on a 3-ton prototype in a controlled environmental chamber equipped with calibrated thermocouples, refrigerant-side mass flow and pressure transducers, and precision airflow measurement for energy balance verification. The prototype achieved heating coefficients of performance (COPs) of 4.4 at 47 °F, 3.1 at 17 °F, and 2.0 at –13 °F, while maintaining 88% of its rated heating capacity at –13°F. These results confirm strong low-temperature performance and indicate the potential for significant reductions in electric resistance backup use. A field prototype was installed and monitored in a residential building in Fairbanks, Alaska, during a heating season. Instrumentation included real-time power, temperature, and refrigerant state measurements to evaluate performance under dynamic outdoor conditions. The heat pump operated reliably down to –30 °F, delivering 75% of its rated heating capacity with a COP of 1.8, while maintaining stable operation, effective defrost control, and indoor comfort without auxiliary heating. The combined laboratory and field results demonstrate that the tandem VI compressor configuration provides a practical and energy-efficient approach for residential heat pumps designed for cold and very cold climate regions.

Hu, Yifeng [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000242875185)↗

NASA NTRS1974

Monitoring physical and chemical parameters of Delaware Bay waters with an ERTS-1 data collection platform

The author has identified the following significant results. Evaluation of the probe performances during the initial phase indicates that the dissolved oxygen sensor available as part of the package is not sufficiently reliable for long term operation. The turbidity probe requires frequent visits to the site to maintain it in proper operating condition. The cost of these visits would have to be weighed against the information obtained. The conductivity/salinity, temperature, pH, and depth indicators have worked extremely well over the course of the study. Monthly cleanings would maintain all these probes in top operating condition. Currently the accuracy of each measurement returned via satellite is being compared to the accuracy of the probe reading and water samples analyzed in the laboratory.

Klemas, V.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Automation of closed environments in space for human comfort and safety

The Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) for the Space Station Freedom and future colonization of the Moon and Mars presents new challenges for present technologies. Current plans call for a crew of 8 to live in a safe, shirt-sleeve environment for 90 days without ground support. Because of these requirements, all life support systems must be self-sufficient and reliable. The ECLSS is composed of six subsystems. The temperature and humidity control (THC) subsystem maintains the cabin temperature and humidity at a comfortable level. The atmosphere control and supply (ACS) subsystem insures proper cabin pressure and partial pressures of oxygen and nitrogen. To protect the space station from fire damage, the fire detection and suppression (FDS) subsystem provides fire sensing alarms and extinguishers. The waste management (WM) subsystem compacts solid wastes for return to Earth, and collects urine for water recovery. Because it is impractical, if not impossible, to supply the station with enough fresh air and water for the duration of the space station's extended mission, these elements are recycled. The atmosphere revitalization (AR) subsystem removes CO2 and other dangerous contaminants from the air. The water recovery and management (WRM) subsystem collects and filters condensate from the cabin to replenish potable water supplies, and processes urine and other waste waters to replenish hygiene water supplies. These subsystems are not fully automated at this time. Furthermore, the control of these subsystems is not presently integrated; they are largely independent of one another. A fully integrated and automated ECLSS would increase astronauts' productivity and contribute to their safety and comfort. The Kansas State University Advanced Design Team is in the process of researching and designing controls for the automation of the ECLSS for Space Station Freedom and beyond. The approach chosen to solve this problem is to divide the design into three phases. The first phase is to research the ECLSS as a whole system and then concentrate efforts on the automation of a single subsystem. The AR subsystem was chosen for our focus. During the second phase, the system control process will then be applied to the AR subsystem.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1993

Advanced Launch System Multi-Path Redundant Avionics Architecture Analysis and Characterization

The objective of the Multi-Path Redundant Avionics Suite (MPRAS) program is the development of a set of avionic architectural modules which will be applicable to the family of launch vehicles required to support the Advanced Launch System (ALS). To enable ALS cost/performance requirements to be met, the MPRAS must support autonomy, maintenance, and testability capabilities which exceed those present in conventional launch vehicles. The multi-path redundant or fault tolerance characteristics of the MPRAS are necessary to offset a reduction in avionics reliability due to the increased complexity needed to support these new cost reduction and performance capabilities and to meet avionics reliability requirements which will provide cost-effective reductions in overall ALS recurring costs. A complex, real-time distributed computing system is needed to meet the ALS avionics system requirements. General Dynamics, Boeing Aerospace, and C.S. Draper Laboratory have proposed system architectures as candidates for the ALS MPRAS. The purpose of this document is to report the results of independent performance and reliability characterization and assessment analyses of each proposed candidate architecture and qualitative assessments of testability, maintainability, and fault tolerance mechanisms. These independent analyses were conducted as part of the MPRAS Part 2 program and were carried under NASA Langley Research Contract NAS1-17964, Task Assignment 28.

Baker, Robert L.↗

NASA NTRS1994

On-orbit NDE: A novel approach to tube weld inspection

The challenge of fabrication and repair of structures in space must be met if we are to utilize and maintain long-duration space facilities. Welding techniques have been demonstrated to provide the most reliable means to accomplish this task. Over the past few years, methods have been developed to perform orbital tube welding employing space-based welding technology pioneered by the former Soviet Union. Welding can result in the formation of defects, which threaten the structural integrity of the welded joint. Implementation of welding on-orbit, therefore, must also include methods to evaluate the quality and integrity of the welded joints. To achieve this goal, the development of an on-orbit tube weld inspection system, utilizing alternating current field measurement (ACFM) technology, has been under taken. This paper describes the development of the ACFM on-orbit tube weld inspection tool. Topics discussed include: requirements for on-orbit NDE, basic theory of ACFM, its advantages over other NDE methods for on-orbit applications, and the ACFM NDE system design. System operation and trial inspection results are also discussed. Future work with this technology is also considered.

Michaels, Kerry↗

NASA NTRS1997

Joining of Silicon Carbide-Based Ceramics by Reaction Forming Method

Recently, there has been a surge of interest in the development and testing of silicon-based ceramics and composite components for a number of aerospace and ground based systems. The designs often require fabrication of complex shaped parts which can be quite expensive. One attractive way of achieving this goal is to build up complex shapes by joining together geometrically simple shapes. However, the joints should have good mechanical strength and environmental stability comparable to the bulk materials. These joints should also be able to maintain their structural integrity at high temperatures. In addition, the joining technique should be practical, reliable, and affordable. Thus, joining has been recognized as one of the enabling technologies for the successful utilization of silicon carbide based ceramic components in high temperature applications. Overviews of various joining techniques, i.e., mechanical fastening, adhesive bonding, welding, brazing, and soldering have been provided in recent publications. The majority of the techniques used today are based on the joining of monolithic ceramics with metals either by diffusion bonding, metal brazing, brazing with oxides and oxynitrides, or diffusion welding. These techniques need either very high temperatures for processing or hot pressing (high pressures). The joints produced by these techniques have different thermal expansion coefficients than the ceramic materials, which creates a stress concentration in the joint area. The use temperatures for these joints are around 700 C. Ceramic joint interlayers have been developed as a means of obtaining high temperature joints. These joint interlayers have been produced via pre-ceramic polymers, in-situ displacement reactions, and reaction bonding techniques. Joints produced by the pre-ceramic polymer approach exhibit a large amounts of porosity and poor mechanical properties. On the other hand, hot pressing or high pressures are needed for in-situ displacement reactions and reaction bonding techniques. Due to the equipment required, these techniques are impractical for joining large or complex shaped components.

Singh, M.↗

NASA NTRS1999

An Evolvable Multi-Agent Approach to Space Operations Engineering

A complex system of spacecraft and ground tracking stations, as well as a constellation of satellites or spacecraft, has to be able to reliably withstand sudden environment changes, resource fluctuations, dynamic resource configuration, limited communication bandwidth, etc., while maintaining the consistency of the system as a whole. It is not known in advance when a change in the environment might occur or when a particular exchange will happen. A higher degree of sophistication for the communication mechanisms between different parts of the system is required. The actual behavior has to be determined while the system is performing and the course of action can be decided at the individual level. Under such circumstances, the solution will highly benefit from increased on-board and on the ground adaptability and autonomy. An evolvable architecture based on intelligent agents that communicate and cooperate with each other can offer advantages in this direction. This paper presents an architecture of an evolvable agent-based system (software and software/hardware hybrids) as well as some plans for further implementation.

Mandutianu, Sanda↗

NASA NTRS1998

Research and Technology 1997

NASA Lewis Research Center is responsible for developing and transferring critical technologies that address national priorities in aeropropulsion and space applications in partnership with U.S. industries, universities, and Government institutions. As NASA s designated Lead Center for Aeropropulsion, our role is to develop, verify, and transfer aeropropulsion technologies to U.S. industry. As NASA s designated Center of Excellence in Turbomachinery, our role is to develop new and innovative turbomachinery technology to improve the reliability, performance, efficiency and affordability, capacity, and environmental compatibility of future aerospace vehicles. We also maintain a science and technology development role in aeropropulsion, communications, space power and onboard propulsion, and microgravity fluid physics and combustion. We are committed to enabling non-aerospace U.S. industries to benefit directly from the technologies developed through our programs to maximize the benefit to the Nation and the return on each taxpayer s investment. In addition, we are aggressively pursuing continuous improvement in our management and business practices and striving for diversity in our workforce as together we push the edge of technology in space and aeronautics. The Lewis Research Center is a unique facility located in an important geographical area, the southwest corner of Cleveland, Ohio. Situated on 350 acres of land adjacent to the Cleveland Hopkins International Airport, Lewis comprises more than 140 buildings that include 24 major facilities and over 500 specialized research and test facilities. Additional facilities are located at Plum Brook Station, which is about 50 miles west of Cleveland. Over 3700 people staff Lewis, including civil service employees and support service contractors. Over half of them are scientists and engineers, who plan, conduct or oversee, and report on our research tasks and projects. They are assisted by technical specialists, skilled workers, and an administrative staff. Our end product is knowledge. This report is designed to help us make this knowledge fully available to potential users the aircraft engine industry, the energy industry, the automotive industry, the aerospace industry, and others. It is organized so that a broad cross section of the community can readily use it. Each article begins with a short introductory paragraph that should prove to be a valuable tool for the layperson. These articles summarize the progress made during the year in various technical areas and portray the technical and administrative support associated with Lewis technology programs. We hope that the information is useful to all. If additional information is desired, readers are encouraged to contact the researchers identified in the articles and to visit Lewis on the World Wide Web (http://www.lerc.nasa.gov/). This document is available on the World Wide Web (http://www.lerc.nasa.gov/WWW/RT).

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1999

An Evolvable Multi-Agent Approach to Space Operations Engineering

Intelligent↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of PV Module Connector Failures on Cost and Performance of Utility Scale Photovoltaic Systems

The reliability, cost and performance of electrical connectors are a concern in all types of electrical systems, and demands on connectors used on photovoltaic (PV) systems include that connectors maintain electrical conductivity and physical strength, endure ultraviolet sunlight and high ambient temperature, and resist moisture and chemical intrusion over a very long (>25 year) performance period. Connector failures increase operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and reduce plant production, but connector failure can also cause safety and liability problems, which are of greater concern. This work results from a three-year collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Office (SETO) under Agreements #39035 and #38531 "Connector Reliability Across the US Solar Sector." a multi-pronged investigation of PV connector health across the US (see https://energy.sandia.gov/pvconnectors/). This report presents derivation of a Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) that models failure modes and frequencies (how often failure occurs), estimates O&M costs and lost production associated with connector failures, and then calculates the effect that PV module connectors can have on Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). The model is informed with initial data from quantitative assessment of failure rates, root causes and mechanisms, in-situ diagnostics and data collection, lab-based forensics, and interviews with PV connector manufacturers and plant operators. SNL conducted site inspections at multiple utility-scale sites in different climates and subjected field samples of new, used, and degraded connectors to visual and electrical characterization. EPRI conducted metallurgical analysis of the pin and sleeve conductors to study failure-induced morphological and compositional changes. There is in general a shortage of statistically valid data, but data from PVROM database maintained by SNL was sufficient to ascertain failure rates and lost production as well as provide qualitative insight in its curated maintenance records. This report details the structure of the mathematical model but the sources of data to inform the model will continue to evolve. Analysis of a 100 MW PV plant is provided as an example of the use of the model, with results indicating that connectors are responsible for Annualized O&M Costs of $\$$71,933/year; Annualized Unit O&M Costs of $\$$0.72/kW/year; that a Reserve Account of $\$$187,220 should be available to fund repairs related to connectors; that connectors add $\$$1,494,004 to the Net Present Value of the O&M Costs (project life); and that O&M related to connectors adds about $\$$0.00088/kWh to the Levelized Cost of Energy. The impact of this model is to provide a tool to make the US solar sector more robust by quantifying and monetizing the reliability risks to utility-scale PV systems posed by poorly installed, mismatched and/or poorly designed and manufactured connectors. The TEA provides a model incorporating failure statistics, O&M cost data, and lost production into a single figure of merit, informing decisions and enabling practitioners to optimize cost and performance trade-offs. Stakeholders include connector manufacturers, system designers and equipment specifiers, standards bodies, installers and O&M providers, investors and insurance underwriters. This report supports continued growth of PV predicated on assurances that properly installed and maintained PV system connectors are safe and reliable. The project team is proposing future work including accelerated testing of connectors and expanding the approach taken here to other PV system components, such as TEA for rapid shut-down devices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2019

Maintaining Skeletal Health During the Mission to Mars

Understanding how the effects of long-duration spaceflight (~6-months) might increase fracture risk in the younger-aged, physically-fit astronaut is challenging. Most of our skeletal data have been acquired from long-duration astronauts, crewmembers who typically serve on 120-180 day missions aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Astronaut biomedical data are predominantly 2-d measurements from DXA scans because this is a required clinical test at Johnson Space Center. Data from these clinical tests, and some data from research studies, are what NASA evaluates to define a risk for fracture in astronauts, both during a mission and long-term health. To date, the agency considers the risk for fracture during spaceflight to be of high (severe) consequence but of low probability (<0.1%) while the risk for fracture in during long-term health to be of medium consequence (interventions available) and medium probability (<1%). These risks are considered acceptable. Notably, there are minimal data to suggest that postflight fractures in long-duration astronauts are directly due to spaceflight exposure. Analyses by NASA epidemiologists and by biomedical engineers suggest that postflight fracture incidence in astronauts is consistent with a physically-active terrestrial population with no exposure to spaceflight. The epidemiological data to-date may be considered insufficient (low # and younger-aged subjects, limited follow-up time) to assess a fracture risk with reliability. In the absence of fracture evidence to substantiate a risk, it may be more useful to maintain astronauts at baseline (preflight) level of skeletal health during a mission. This lecture will present data from astronauts that affirms that 1) the maintenance of skeletal health during the future 3-year Mars mission will require an anti-resorptive therapy and 2) the risk for fracture during long-term health cannot be defined by the DXA clinical test alone.

Sibonga, Jean↗

DOE OSTI2025

Prediction of carbon nanostructure mechanical properties and the role of defects using machine learning

Graphene-based nanostructures hold immense potential as strong and lightweight materials, however, their mechanical properties such as modulus and strength are difficult to fully exploit due to challenges in atomic-scale engineering. This study presents a database of over 2,000 pristine and defective nanoscale CNT bundles and other graphitic assemblies, inspired by microscopy, with associated stress–strain curves from reactive molecular dynamics (MD) simulations using the reactive INTERFACE force field (IFF-R). These 3D structures, containing up to 80,000 atoms, enable detailed analyses of structure-stiffness-failure relationships. By leveraging the database and physics- and chemistry-informed machine learning (ML), accurate predictions of elastic moduli and tensile strength are demonstrated at speeds 1,000 to 10,000 times faster than efficient MD simulations. Hierarchical Graph Neural Networks with Spatial Information (HS-GNNs) are introduced, which integrate chemistry knowledge. HS-GNNs as well as extreme gradient boosted trees (XGBoost) achieve forecasts of mechanical properties of arbitrary carbon nanostructures with only 3 to 6% mean relative error. The reliability equals experimental accuracy and is up to 20 times higher than other ML methods. Predictions maintain 8 to 18% accuracy for large CNT bundles, CNT junctions, and carbon fiber cross-sections outside the training distribution. The physics- and chemistry-informed HS-GNN works remarkably well for data outside the training range while XGBoost works well with limited training data inside the training range. The carbon nanostructure database is designed for integration with multimodal experimental and simulation data, scalable beyond 100 nm size, and extendable to chemically similar compounds and broader property ranges. The ML approaches have potential for applications in structural materials, nanoelectronics, and carbon-based catalysts.

Winetrout, Jordan J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Artificial intelligence-based predictive modeling for imaging neutral particle analyzers on the DIII-D tokamak

The Imaging Neutral Particle Analyzer (INPA) at DIII-D is a diagnostic system used to accurately resolve the energy and spatial distributions of fast ions in fusion plasmas. A novel artificial intelligence (AI) technique named INPA-net is based on Reservoir Computing Networks and developed here to predict active and passive signals produced by charge-exchange reactions from injected and edge-cold neutrals, respectively, in magnetically confined fusion plasmas. This model is trained using a set of 21 time domain signals between 0 s to 3.35 s that includes injected beam and thermal plasma information, and 6444 real 2D experimental images of the INPA in 12 plasma discharges at DIII-D. The trained neural network is able to forecast experimental images in real-time. The model achieves an R-squared value of 0.91, which is higher than the 0.83 value achieved by a simple linear regression model. This improvement highlights the model's enhanced predictive accuracy for measured images from the validation set. This AI approach is valuable due to its rapid response times and potential for integration into real-time plasma control systems. A version of this model capable of generating syntehic images would be useful for the real-time monitoring of fast-ion transport. A comprehensive sensitivity study reveals that INPA-net maintains high performance even with variations in the input parameters, indicating the model's robustness and reliability. While developed for the INPA, the underlying architecture is adaptable and may be applied to various 2D imaging diagnostics in fusion research.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Characterization and novel application of power over fiber for electronics in a harsh environment

Power-over-Fiber (PoF) technology has been used extensively in settings where high voltages require isolation from ground. In a novel application of PoF, power is provided to photon detector modules located on a surface at ∼ 300 kV with respect to ground in the planned DUNE experiment. In cryogenic environments, PoF offers a reliable means of power transmission, leveraging optical fibers to transfer optical power. PoF technology excels in maintaining low noise levels when delivering power to sensitive electronic systems operating in extreme temperatures and high voltage environments. This paper presents the R&D effort of PoF in extreme conditions and underscores its capacity to revolutionize power delivery and management in critical applications, offering a dependable solution with low noise, optimal efficiency (∼ 51%), and superior isolation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS1978

A Closed Network Queue Model of Underground Coal Mining Production, Failure, and Repair

Underground coal mining system production, failures, and repair cycles were mathematically modeled as a closed network of two queues in series. The model was designed to better understand the technological constraints on availability of current underground mining systems, and to develop guidelines for estimating the availability of advanced mining systems and their associated needs for spares as well as production and maintenance personnel. It was found that: mine performance is theoretically limited by the maintainability ratio, significant gains in availability appear possible by means of small improvements in the time between failures the number of crews and sections should be properly balanced for any given maintainability ratio, and main haulage systems closest to the mine mouth require the most attention to reliability.

Lohman, G. M.↗