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DOE OSTI2017

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Bias HAST System Temperature

High-reliability components for high-consequence systems require detailed testing of operation after having undergone highly accelerated stress testing (HAST) under unusual conditions of high-temperature and humidity. This paper describes the design and operation of a system called "Wormwood" that is a highly multiplexed temperature measurement system that is designed to operate under HAST conditions to allow measurement of the temperature as a function of time and position in a HAST chamber. HAST chambers have single-point temperature measurements that can be traceable to NIST standards. The objective of these "Wormwood" measurements is to verify the uniformity and stability of the remaining volume of the HAST chamber with respect to the single traceable standard.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Reliability of Aging Polymer Components

A viscoelastic constitutive analysis is used to investigate the counter-intuitive observation of “mobility decrease with increased deformation through yield” in a glass forming polymer under compressive and tensile loading conditions. Current Sandia National Laboratory polymer models are built on the assumption that deformation enhances the mobility of the material. If this assumption is not true at small strain rates (e.g., thermal fluctuations in stockpile storage) then models will not be able to accurately predict stress evolution and potential failure of components during stockpile storage. The behavior of an epoxy thermoset is explored using an extensively validated material “clock” model, the Simplified Potential Energy Clock (SPEC) model. This methodology allows for a comparison between the linear viscoelastic (LVE) limit and the true non-linear viscoelastic (NLVE) representation and enables exploration of a wide range of conditions that are not practical to explore experimentally. The model predicts the behavior described as “mobility decrease with increased deformation” in the LVE limit and at low strain rates for NLVE. Only when loading rates are sufficient to decrease the material shift factor by multiple orders of magnitude is the anticipated deformation induced mobility or “mobility increase with increased deformation” observed. While the model has not been “trained” for these behaviors, it also predicts that the normalized stress relaxation response is indistinguishable amongst strain levels in the “post-yield” region as has been experimentally reported. At long time, which has not been examined experimentally, the model predicts the normalized relaxation curves “crossover” and return to the LVE ordering. These findings further demonstrate the ability of rheologically simple models to represent experimentally measured material response and present predictions at long time scales that could be tested experimentally.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Quantitative Failure Analysis on Capacity Fade in Rechargeable Lithium Metal Cells

Rechargeable lithium battery (RLB) technology is transforming portable devices, vehicle electrification, and grid modernization. To make RLB durable, reliable and safe, conducting failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) to identify failure mechanism under the operating conditions is very desirable. However, this ability is often overlooked or even lacking. The failure analysis (FA) is often conducted by laboratory testing and postmortem analysis, and the knowledge typically empirical. Here we present a quantitative approach for FMEA that can reveal how failure modes and effects reduce the capacity of a RLB. This approach is based on the state of the battery for FMEA, contrary to the conventional approach based on operating or testing conditions. The key aspect of this FMEA method is to convert the experimental results to a state-of-charge (SOC)-based analytic methodology. Such a conversion can separate the thermodynamic and kinetic attributes of capacity fade based on compositional correspondence in the electrode, so the loss and the decreased utilization of the active materials can be determined respectively.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Nuclear data uncertainty propagation and modeling uncertainty impact evaluation in neutronics core simulation

Uncertainty analysis is a critical requirement in reactor simulation as it is used to quantify the reliability of best-estimate calculation. A comprehensive uncertainty analysis should characterize all sources of uncertainties in a computationally-feasible and scientifically-defendable manner. Here we employ a well-established reduced order modeling (ROM) based uncertainty quantification methodology to propagate uncertainties throughout neutronic calculations. ROM relies on recent advances in randomized data mining techniques applied to large data streams. In our proposed implementation, the nuclear data uncertainties are first propagated from multi-group level through lattice physics calculation to generate few-group parameter uncertainties, described using a vector of mean values and a covariance matrix. Employing an ROM-based compression of the covariance matrix, the few-group uncertainties are then propagated through downstream core simulation in a computationally efficient manner. This straightforward approach, albeit efficient as compared to brute force forward and/or adjoint-based methods, often employs a number of assumptions that have been unquestioned in the literature of neutronic uncertainty analysis. This manuscript argues that these assumptions could introduce another source of uncertainty referred to as modeling uncertainties, whose magnitude needs to be quantified in tandem with nuclear data uncertainties. Thus, our primary goal is to explore the interactions between these two uncertainty sources in order to assess whether modeling uncertainties have an impact on parameter uncertainties. To explore this endeavor, the impact of a number of modeling assumptions on core attributes uncertainties is quantified. The study employs a CANDU reactor model, with Serpent and NEWT as lattice physics solvers and NESTLE-C as core simulator. The modeling assumptions investigated include those related with the uncertainty propagation method employed, e.g., deterministic vs. stochastic, the few-group energy structure employed to represent the cross-sections, the resonance treatment in lattice physics calculation, the reference values for the cross-section, and the number of samples employed to render ROM compression. Results indicate that some of the modeling assumptions could have a non-negligible impact on the core responses propagated uncertainties, highlighting the need for a more comprehensive approach to combine parameter and modeling uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Analysis of the Space Propulsion System Problem Using RAVEN

This paper presents the solution of the space propulsion problem using a PRA code currently under development at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). RAVEN (Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENviroment) is a multi-purpose Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) software framework that allows dispatching different functionalities. It is designed to derive and actuate the control logic required to simulate the plant control system and operator actions (guided procedures) and to perform both Monte- Carlo sampling of random distributed events and Event Tree based analysis. In order to facilitate the input/output handling, a Graphical User Interface (GUI) and a post-processing data-mining module are available. RAVEN allows also to interface with several numerical codes such as RELAP5 and RELAP-7 and ad-hoc system simulators. For the space propulsion system problem, an ad-hoc simulator has been developed and written in python language and then interfaced to RAVEN. Such simulator fully models both deterministic (e.g., system dynamics and interactions between system components) and stochastic behaviors (i.e., failures of components/systems such as distribution lines and thrusters). Stochastic analysis is performed using random sampling based methodologies (i.e., Monte-Carlo). Such analysis is accomplished to determine both the reliability of the space propulsion system and to propagate the uncertainties associated to a specific set of parameters. As also indicated in the scope of the benchmark problem, the results generated by the stochastic analysis are used to generate risk-informed insights such as conditions under witch different strategy can be followed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2015

Visual inspection reliability for precision manufactured parts

Sandia National Laboratories conducted an experiment for the National Nuclear Security Administration to determine the reliability of visual inspection of precision manufactured parts used in nuclear weapons. In addition visual inspection has been extensively researched since the early 20th century; however, the reliability of visual inspection for nuclear weapons parts has not been addressed. In addition, the efficacy of using inspector confidence ratings to guide multiple inspections in an effort to improve overall performance accuracy is unknown. Further, the workload associated with inspection has not been documented, and newer measures of stress have not been applied.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Theoretical Approach for Reliability Within Information Supply Chains With Cycles and Negations

Complex networks of information processing systems, or information supply chains, present challenges for performance analysis. Here, we establish a mathematical setting, in which a process within an information supply chain can be analyzed in terms of the functionality of the system’s components. Principles of this methodology are rigorously defended and induce a model for determining the reliability for the various products in these networks. Our model does not limit us from having cycles in the network, as long as the cycles do not contain negation. It is shown that our approach to reliability resolves the nonuniqueness caused by cycles in a probabilistic Boolean network. An iterative algorithm is given to find the reliability values of the model, using a process that can be fully automated. This automated method of discerning reliability is beneficial for systems managers. As a systems manager considers systems modification, such as the replacement of owned and maintained hardware systems with cloud computing resources, the need for comparative analysis of system reliability is paramount. The model is extended to handle conditional knowledge about the network, allowing one to make predictions of weaknesses in the system. Finally, to illustrate the model’s flexibility over different forms, it is demonstrated on a system of components and subcomponents.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning-based multidomain processing for texture-based image segmentation and analysis

Atomic and molecular resolved atomic force microscopy (AFM) images offer unique insights into materials' properties such as local ordering, molecular orientation, and topological defects, which can be used to pinpoint physical and chemical interactions occurring at the surface. Utilizing machine learning for extracting underlying physical parameters increases the throughput of AFM data processing and eliminates inconsistencies intrinsic to manual image analysis, thus enabling the creation of reliable frameworks for qualitative and quantitative evaluation of experimental data. Here, we present a robust and scalable approach to the segmentation of AFM images based on flexible pre-selected classification criteria. The usage of supervised learning and feature extraction allows us to retain the consideration of specific problem-dependent features (such as types of periodical structures observed in the images and the associated numerical parameters: spacing, orientation, etc.). We highlight the applicability of this approach for the segmentation of molecular resolved AFM images based on the crystal orientation of the observed domains, automated selection of boundaries, and collection of relevant statistics. Finally, we outline a general strategy for machine learning-enabled analysis of nanoscale systems exhibiting periodic order that could be applied to any analytical imaging technique

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

X-ray absorption spectroscopy study of Mn reference compounds for Mn speciation in terrestrial surface environments

Abstract X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) offers great potential to identify and quantify Mn species in surface environments by means of linear combination fit (LCF), fingerprint, and shell-fit analyses of bulk Mn XAS spectra. However, these approaches are complicated by the lack of a comprehensive and accessible spectrum library. Additionally, molecular-level information on Mn coordination in some potentially important Mn species occurring in soils and sediments is missing. Therefore, we investigated a suite of 32 natural and synthetic Mn reference compounds, including Mn oxide, oxyhydroxide, carbonate, phosphate, and silicate minerals, as well as organic and adsorbed Mn species, by Mn K-edge X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) and extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) spectroscopy. The ability of XAS to infer the average oxidation state (AOS) of Mn was assessed by comparing XANES-derived AOS with the AOS obtained from redox titrations. All reference compounds were studied for their local (<5 Å) Mn coordination environment using EXAFS shell-fit analysis. Statistical analyses were employed to clarify how well and to what extent individual Mn species (groups) can be distinguished by XAS based on spectral uniqueness. Our results show that LCF analysis of normalized XANES spectra can reliably quantify the Mn AOS within ~0.1 v.u. in the range +2 to +4. These spectra are diagnostic for most Mn species investigated, but unsuitable to identify and quantify members of the manganate and Mn(III)-oxyhydroxide groups. First-derivative XANES fingerprinting allows the unique identification of pyrolusite, ramsdellite, and potentially lithiophorite within the manganate group. However, XANES spectra of individual Mn compounds can vary significantly depending on chemical composition and/or crystallinity, which limits the accuracy of XANES-based speciation analyses. In contrast, EXAFS spectra provide a much better discriminatory power to identify and quantify Mn species. Principal component and cluster analyses of k2-weighted EXAFS spectra of Mn reference compounds implied that EXAFS LCF analysis of environmental samples can identify and quantify at least the following primary Mn species groups: (1) Phyllo- and tectomanganates with large tunnel sizes (2 × 2 and larger; hollandite sensu stricto, romanèchite, todorokite); (2) tectomanganates with small tunnel sizes (2 × 2 and smaller; cryptomelane, pyrolusite, ramsdellite); (3) Mn(III)-dominated species (nesosilicates, oxyhydroxides, organic compounds, spinels); (4) Mn(II) species (carbonate, phosphate, and phyllosilicate minerals, adsorbed and organic species); and (5) manganosite. All Mn compounds, except for members of the manganate group (excluding pyrolusite) and adsorbed Mn(II) species, exhibit unique EXAFS spectra that would allow their identification and quantification in mixtures. Therefore, our results highlight the potential of Mn K-edge EXAFS spectroscopy to assess bulk Mn speciation in soils and sediments. A complete XAS-based speciation analysis of bulk Mn in environmental samples should preferably include the determination of Mn valences following the “Combo” method of Manceau et al. (2012), EXAFS LCF analyses based on principal component and target transformation results, as well as EXAFS shell-fit analyses for the validation of LCF results. For this purpose, all 32 XAS reference spectra are provided in the Online Materials1 for further use by the scientific community.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2018

Reliable noise measure in time-gated NMR data

Time gating is a commonly used approach in the pre-processing of nuclear magnetic resonance data before inversion. Gating suppresses spurious signals that can degrade recovered decay time distributions and therefore often stabilizes inversion. However, care must be taken in applying this technique when assumptions of uncorrelated Gaussianity break down and reduce stacking efficiency. If not properly accounted for, unreliable noise estimates introduce inversion artefacts through over- or underfitting of the data. Block-bootstrap resampling of noise realization proxies obtained through data phasing can be used to generate reliable noise estimates for the windows. Benefits of the approach are demonstrated through inversion of synthetic and borehole data. Finally, analysis confirms that bootstrapped noise metrics are more reliable under variable noise conditions and result in more stable inversion results.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Benefits of utilizing CellProfiler as a characterization tool for U–10Mo nuclear fuel

Automated image processing techniques have the potential to aid in the performance evaluation of nuclear fuels by eliminating judgment calls that may vary from person-to-person or sample-to-sample. Analysis of in-core fuel performance is required for design and safety evaluations related to almost every aspect of the nuclear fuel cycle. This study presents a methodology for assessing the quality of uranium–molybdenum fuel images and describes image analysis routines designed for the characterization of several important microstructural properties. The analyses are performed in CellProfiler, an open-source program designed to enable biologists without training in computer vision or programming to automatically extract cellular measurements from large image sets. The quality metric scores an image based on three parameters: the illumination gradient across the image, the overall focus of the image, and the fraction of the image that contains scratches. The metric presents the user with the ability to ‘pass’ or ‘fail’ an image based on a reproducible quality score. Passable images may then be characterized through a separate CellProfiler pipeline, which enlists a variety of common image analysis techniques. The results demonstrate the ability to reliably pass or fail images based on the illumination, focus, and scratch fraction of the image, followed by automatic extraction of morphological data with respect to fission gas voids, interaction layers, and grain boundaries. - Graphical abstract: Display Omitted - Highlights: • A technique is developed to score U–10Mo FIB-SEM image quality using CellProfiler. • The pass/fail metric is based on image illumination, focus, and area scratched. • Automated image analysis is performed in pipeline fashion to characterize images. • Fission gas void, interaction layer, and grain boundary coverage data is extracted. • Preliminary characterization results demonstrate consistency of the algorithm.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2016

MO-DE-207B-11: Reliability of PET/CT Radiomics Features in Functional and Morphological Components of NSCLC Lesions: A Repeatability Analysis in a Prospective Multicenter Cohort

Purpose: The goal of this study was to evaluate the repeatability of radiomics features (intensity, shape and heterogeneity) in both PET and low-dose CT components of test-retest FDG-PET/CT images in a prospective multicenter cohort of 74 NSCLC patients from ACRIN 6678 and a similar Merck trial. Methods: Seventy-four patients with stage III-IV NCSLC were prospectively included. The primary tumor and up to 3 additional lesions per patient were analyzed. The Fuzzy Locally Adaptive Bayesian algorithm was used to automatically delineate metabolically active volume (MAV) in PET. The 3D SlicerTM software was exploited to delineate anatomical volumes (AV) in CT. Ten intensity first-order features, as well as 26 textural features and four 3D shape descriptors were calculated from tumour volumes in both modalities. The repeatability of each metric was assessed by Bland-Altman analysis. Results: One hundred and five lesions (primary tumors and nodal or distant metastases) were delineated and characterized. The MAV and AV determination had a repeatability of −1.4±11.0% and −1.2±18.7% respectively. Several shape and heterogeneity features were found to be highly or moderately repeatable (e.g., sphericity, co-occurrence entropy or intensity size-zone matrix zone percentage), whereas others were confirmed as unreliable with much higher variability (more than twice that of the corresponding volume determination). Conclusion: Our results in this large multicenter cohort with more than 100 measurements confirm the PET findings in previous studies (with <30 lesions). In addition, our study is the first to explore the repeatability of radiomics features in the low-dose CT component of PET/CT acquisitions (previous studies considered dosimetry CT, CE-CT or CBCT). Several features were identified as reliable in both PET and CT components and could be used to build prognostic models. This work has received a French government support granted to the CominLabs excellence laboratory and managed by the National Research Agency in the “Investing for the Future” program under reference ANR-10-LABX-07-01, and support from the city of Brest.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Analysis of Cygnus Electrical Signals

The United States initiated the Subcritical Experiment (SCE) program to support a stockpile stewardship mission shortly after the 1992 moratorium on underground nuclear testing was established. Many SCE’s are conducted at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nevada. Cygnus is a high-energy radiation generating device (RGD) located and operated at the NNSS and is a primary diagnostic for the SCE program. The Cygnus Dual Beam Radiographic Facility consists of two identical radiographic sources, Cygnus 1 and Cygnus 2. From creation of the high power V-I drive to energy transport and X-ray conversion at the rod-pinch diode, the Cygnus machines utilize the following components: oil-filled Marx generator, water-filled pulse-forming line (PFL), water-filled coaxial transmission line (CTL), three-cell vacuum induction voltage adder (IVA), and rod-pinch diode. The diode pulse has the following electrical specifications: 2.25 MV, 60 kA, 60 ns. Each source has the following X-ray specifications: 1 mm diameter, 4 rad at 1 m, and 50 ns radiation pulse. SCEs are both single-event and high-value; therefore, a high level of performance in reliability and reproducibility are key issues of Cygnus. Prior to executing such a SCE, there are a formidable number of shots (e.g., each of the two Cygnus RGDs charging and discharging properly into the rod-pinch diode load) that must be executed to determine reliability and reproducibility of the Cygnus RGDs. For every shot on Cygnus, voltages and currents along the machine are recorded and analyzed. In this paper we summarize attributes of the voltage and current waveforms at different locations using distribution plots. These distribution plots are used to quantify the reliability and reproducibility for Cygnus. This analysis methodology will provide a standard to trouble shoot results of individual Cygnus shots, and also to monitor long term Cygnus performance. Accordingly, this type of extensive analysis will contribute to optimized Cygnus performance on SCEs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Physical Security Risk for Potential Implementation of FLEX using Dynamic Simulation Methods

The requirements for United States nuclear power plants to maintain a large onsite physical security force contribute to their large operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Physical Security Pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. This pathway will analyze and minimize the conservatisms built into current security postures in order to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within this pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force (FOF) modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrated them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This document provides an overview of lessons learned in applying a dynamic computational framework that links results from a commercially available FOF simulation tool, a commercially available thermal-hydraulic tool, and EMRALD to an operating commercial nuclear power plant. This process of including plant procedures and multiple analysis results is being called Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific FOF models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System or Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations, and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report documents the results of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. The purpose of this study was to verify that results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and to refine our guidance of the use of the framework. Such an assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants. NOTE: The work performed in this report is based on a generic EMRALD model with actual plant data used for the analysis. However, only the generic model and general results of the analysis are in the report. No plant’s sensitive information is discussed in this report. The discussion shows examples of insights that can be obtained from the MASS-DEF methodology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Plant-specific Model and Data Analysis using Dynamic Security Modeling and Simulation

The requirements for U.S. nuclear power plants to maintain a large on-site physical security force contribute to their high operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program’s physical security pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. The conservatisms built into current security postures may be analyzed and minimized in order to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within LWRS program’s physical security pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrating them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This document provides an update on the progress in applying a dynamic computational framework that links results from a commercially available force-on-force simulation tool, a commercially available thermal-hydraulic tool, and EMRALD to an operating commercial nuclear power plant. This report is only a summary of the progress and does not contain specific modeling results as those contain sensitive security information. This process of including plant procedures and multiple analysis results is being called Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework or MASS-DEF. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific force-on-force models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as CAFTA (Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System) or SAPHIRE (Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations), and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report documents the results of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. This report does not contain any plant's sensitive information and/or Safeguards Information. The purpose of this study was to verify that results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and to refine our guidance on the use of the framework. This assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Feasibility and Demonstration of a Cloud-Based RIID Analysis System

A significant limitation in the operational utility of handheld and backpack radioisotope identifiers (RIIDs) is the inability of their onboard algorithms to accurately and reliably identify the isotopic sources of the measured gamma-ray energy spectrum. A possible solution is to move the spectral analysis computations to an external device, the cloud, where significantly greater capabilities are available. The implementation and demonstration of a prototype cloud-based RIID analysis system have shown this type of system to be feasible with currently available communication and computational technology. A system study has shown that the potential user community could derive significant benefits from an appropriately implemented cloud-based analysis system and has identified the design and operational characteristics required by the users and stakeholders for such a system. A general description of the hardware and software necessary to implement reliable cloud-based analysis, the value of the cloud expressed by the user community, and the aspects of the cloud implemented in the demonstrations are discussed.

Wright, Michael C↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Review of the Customer Experience at Public Charging Stations and its Effects on Electric Vehicle Purchase and Use

The electric vehicle (EV) market in the U.S. has grown rapidly. However, poor public charging reliability could challenge achieving widespread adoption. We reviewed peer-reviewed articles and market research reports to understand how the public charging experience affects the willingness to purchase EVs among first-time buyers and current owners. Ample literature identifies the measures of the public charging experiences, characterizes the current public charging experience, and identifies the effect of infrastructure availability on EV purchase decisions. However, there is no causal evidence linking the customer experience at public chargers to purchase decisions or intentions for current EV owners or prospective buyers.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2013

Applying uncertainty quantification to multiphase flow computational fluid dynamics

Multiphase computational fluid dynamics plays a major role in design and optimization of fossil fuel based reactors. There is a growing interest in accounting for the influence of uncertainties associated with physical systems to increase the reliability of computational simulation based engineering analysis. The U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) has recently undertaken an initiative to characterize uncertainties associated with computer simulation of reacting multiphase flows encountered in energy producing systems such as a coal gasifier. The current work presents the preliminary results in applying non-intrusive parametric uncertainty quantification and propagation techniques with NETL's open-source multiphase computational fluid dynamics software MFIX. For this purpose an open-source uncertainty quantification toolkit, PSUADE developed at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has been interfaced with MFIX software. In this study, the sources of uncertainty associated with numerical approximation and model form have been neglected, and only the model input parametric uncertainty with forward propagation has been investigated by constructing a surrogate model based on data-fitted response surface for a multiphase flow demonstration problem. Monte Carlo simulation was employed for forward propagation of the aleatory type input uncertainties. Several insights gained based on the outcome of these simulations are presented such as how inadequate characterization of uncertainties can affect the reliability of the prediction results. Also a global sensitivity study using Sobol' indices was performed to better understand the contribution of input parameters to the variability observed in response variable.

42 ENGINEERING↗