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DOE OSTI2022

Psilocybin: crystal structure solutions enable phase analysis of prior art and recently patented examples

Psilocybin {systematic name: 3-[2-(dimethylamino)ethyl]-1 H -indol-4-yl dihydrogen phosphate} is a zwitterionic tryptamine natural product found in numerous species of fungi known for their psychoactive properties. Following its structural elucidation and chemical synthesis in 1959, purified synthetic psilocybin has been evaluated in clinical trials and has shown promise in the treatment of various mental health disorders. In a recent process-scale crystallization investigation, three crystalline forms of psilocybin were repeatedly observed: Hydrate A, Polymorph A, and Polymorph B. The crystal structure for Hydrate A was solved previously by single-crystal X-ray diffraction. This article presents new crystal structure solutions for the two anhydrates, Polymorphs A and B, based on Rietveld refinement using laboratory and synchrotron X-ray diffraction data, and density functional theory (DFT) calculations. Utilizing the three solved structures, an investigation was conducted via Rietveld method (RM) based quantitative phase analysis (QPA) to estimate the contribution of the three different forms in powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD) patterns provided by different sources of bulk psilocybin produced between 1963 and 2021. Over the last 57 years, each of these samples quantitatively reflect one or more of the hydrate and anhydrate polymorphs. In addition to quantitatively evaluating the composition of each sample, this article evaluates correlations between the crystal forms present, corresponding process methods, sample age, and storage conditions. Furthermore, revision is recommended on characterizations in recently granted patents that include descriptions of crystalline psilocybin inappropriately reported as a single-phase `isostructural variant.' Rietveld refinement demonstrated that the claimed material was composed of approximately 81% Polymorph A and 19% Polymorph B, both of which have been identified in historical samples. In this article, we show conclusively that all published data can be explained in terms of three well-defined forms of psilocybin and that no additional forms are needed to explain the diffraction patterns.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Energy Impacts of Electric Aircraft: An Overview

Commercial aviation represents approximately 2% of the global emissions of greenhouse gases, yet presently relies exclusively on fossil fuels as a source of energy. This paper evaluates to what extent an all-electric aircraft can provide an alternative. First, three classes of aircraft are modeled at various timelines in the future: 50/100/150 passenger capacity in 2030/2040/2050. Technology is assumed to improve over time, especially with regards to battery specific energy, resulting in aircraft with increased range. A database of all domestic flights in the US in 2019 is then used to filter and aggregate flights suited for replacement by electric aircraft. In the short term (2030), no viable aircraft can meet the requirements of each class. By 2040, a third of the flights can be done by an all-electric aircraft, but only short ones, as the range does not exceed 500 mi, resulting in 3% of total passenger-miles. By 2050, owing to the most optimistic technology assumptions, a quarter of all passenger-miles can be flown by electric airplanes. The resulting displaced jet fuel is also calculated.

Aviation sustainability↗

DOE OSTI2023

SCALE Modeling of the Sodium Cooled Fast-Spectrum Advanced Burner Test Reactor

This report documents the modeling and simulation of a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) as part of a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission–sponsored project to assess the modeling and simulation capabilities for accident progression, source term, and consequence analysis for advanced reactor technologies with the Oak Ridge National Laboratory code SCALE and the Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) code MELCOR. Based on publicly available benchmark specifications, a fully heterogeneous 3D SCALE model of the 250 MWth Advanced Burner Test Reactor (ABTR) was developed to demonstrate SCALE’s capabilities for full-core reactivity analysis, fuel inventory prediction, and decay heat analysis of an SFR. The benchmark specifications contain modeling details for the ABTR core at the beginning of equilibrium cycle (BOEC) at operating conditions; they were derived from a 2006 preconceptual design report produced by Argonne National Laboratory. The ABTR was designed to demonstrate reactor-based transmutation of transuranics, that is, to “burn” transuranics recovered from light-water reactor (LWR) spent fuel. The ABTR’s fuel is designed to operate in 4 month cycles using uranium/transuranic (U/TRU) metallic fuel, with a TRU content of approximately 20%, at a conversion ratio of approximately 0.6. Various reactivity calculations were performed with SCALE for the ABTR and, where possible, compared with results available in the open literature. Additionally, SCALE was used to perform a full-core depletion calculation over the 4 month cycle to obtain the nuclide inventory at the end of equilibrium cycle (EOEC). These nuclide inventories, decay heat, power profiles, and reactivity feedback coefficients at EOEC represent the initial conditions for analyzing severe accident scenarios with MELCOR.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS1991

A search for periodicity in the x ray spectrum of black hole candidate A0620-00

The archived data from the SAS-3 observations of the X-ray nova A0620-00, the best of the stellar blackhole candidates, were exhaustively examined for evidence of variable phenomena correlated with the orbital motion of the binary system of which it is a member. The original analysis of these data was completed before discovery of the binary companion and determination of the orbital period of the system. New interest was drawn to the task of a reexamination of the archive data by the recent discovery of the massive nature of the X-ray source through analysis of the Doppler variations and ellipsoidal light variations of the faint K-star companion by McClintock and Remillard. The archive research, carried out under the supervision of the principal investigator, was the topic of the thesis submitted to the MIT Department of Physics by Kenneth Plaks in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science. Plaks' effort was focused on the elimination of fluctuations in the data due to errors in attitude solutions and other extraneous causes. The first products of his work were long-term light curves of the X-ray intensities in the various energy channels as functions of time during the time from outbursts in August 1975 to quiescence approximately 6 months later. These curves, are refined versions of the preliminary results published in 1976 (Matilsky et al. 1976). Smooth exponentials were fitted to these long term light curves to provide the basis for detrending the data, thereby permitting a calculation of residuals derived by subtracting the fitted curve from the data. The residuals were then analyzed by Fourier analysis to search for variations with the period of the binary orbit, namely 7.75 hours. No evidence of an orbital periodicity was found. However, the refined light curve provides a much clearer picture of the outburst and subsequent decay of the X-ray luminosity. In fact, there were two outbursts, each followed by an exponential decay with similar time constants of about 25 days. Previous evidence of a three-oscillation variation with a 7.8 day period were confirmed. Substantial theoretical effort has been devoted to attempts to account for the decay characteristics as the result of the gradual eating up of an accretion disk by a stellar-mass blackhole (e.g., Huang and Wheeler 1989). The improved decay curves will provide significant new constraints on the theoretical analyses.

Clark, George W.↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Viability of Trajectory Analysis for Diagnosing Dynamical and Chemical Influences on Ozone Concentrations in the UTLS

The viability of trajectory analysis for diagnosing the interplay between chemistry and dynamics is investigated by comparing ozone mixing ratios modelled using air-parcel pathways to values observed along flight tracks during ATTREX (Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment). Trajectories are initiated at the locations of ozone observations and tracked backward in time to their sources at termini of backward trajectories. The modelled values of ozone utilize 3-dimensional analysis fields from WACCM (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model) (a chemical-climate model with dynamical fields nudged towards MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis and Research Applications) reanalysis) and ERA-interim (product of ECMWF - the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) to determine source mixing ratios with chemical production and loss terms derived from the ozone chemistry used in WACCM. A statistical base of modelled ozone is constructed with 6 trajectory platforms (adiabatic, diabatic, and kinematic forced by ERA-interim and MERRA), two chemical models (WACCM chemistry and no chemistry), and 4 trajectory lengths (5, 10, 20, and 30 days). Linear regression is employed to separate systematic errors from random errors and to characterize the impact of source mixing ratios, path length, vertical motion, and chemistry on modelled ozone errors. Errors in the analysis ozone fields are large, if not dominant, contributors to model error. Random errors are particularly large for point-by-point comparisons, however averaging over 800 km (75 minutes) flight segments substantially reduces random error and exposes systematic errors. Of the two analysis ozone data sets, WACCM, which incorporates detailed chemistry, provides the smaller systematic errors while ERA-interim, which has crude chemistry but assimilates observational data, has the smaller random errors. Of the different trajectory platforms, adiabatic calculations produce the smaller random errors (irrespective of the use of chemistry) but both vertical motion and chemistry are required to optimally reduce systematic errors. These results suggest that meaningful analysis of dynamical and chemical interactions that control ozone mixing ratios are viable on spatial scales larger than a few reanalysis grid spaces, that errors in the analyzed ozone data sets are large but not prohibitively so, and that vertical velocities and heating rates from reanalysis data, while problematic, contain useful information [on the ozone concentrations in the UTLS (Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere)].

ozone↗

DOE OSTI2017

Fluorination of Lithium‐Excess Transition Metal Oxide Cathode Materials

Abstract Fluorination of Li‐ion cathode materials is of significant interest as it is claimed to lead to significant improvements in long‐term reversible capacity. However, the mechanism by which LiF incorporates and improves performance remains uncertain. Indeed, recent evidence suggests that fluorine is often present as a coating layer rather than incorporated into the bulk of the material. In this work, first‐principles calculations are used to investigate the thermodynamics of fluorination in transition metal oxide cathodes to determine the conditions under which bulk fluorination is possible. It is found that unlike classic well‐ordered cathodes, which cannot incorporate fluorine, disordered rock salt‐structured materials achieve significant fluorination levels due to the presence of locally metal‐poor, lithium‐rich environments that are highly preferred for fluorine. As well as explaining the fluorination process in known materials, this finding is encouraging for the development of new disordered rock salt lithium‐excess transition metal oxides, a promising new class of Li‐ion battery cathode materials that offer superior practical capacity to traditional layered oxides. In particular, it is found that bulk fluorination may serve as an alternative source of Li‐excess in these compounds that can replace the conventional substitution of a heavy redox‐inactive element on the transition metal sublattice.

Richards, William D.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Perturbation of a Schwarzschild Black Hole Due to a Rotating Thin Disk

Will, in 1974, treated the perturbation of a Schwarzschild black hole due to a slowly rotating, light, concentric thin ring by solving the perturbation equations in terms of a multipole expansion of the mass-and-rotation perturbation series. In the Schwarzschild background, his approach can be generalized to perturbation by a thin disk (which is more relevant astrophysically), but, due to rather bad convergence properties, the resulting expansions are not suitable for specific (numerical) computations. However, we show that Green’s functions, represented by Will’s result, can be expressed in closed form (without multipole expansion), which is more useful. In particular, they can be integrated out over the source (a thin disk in our case) to yield good converging series both for the gravitational potential and for the dragging angular velocity. The procedure is demonstrated, in the first perturbation order, on the simplest case of a constant-density disk, including the physical interpretation of the results in terms of a one-component perfect fluid or a two-component dust in a circular orbit about the central black hole. Free parameters are chosen in such a way that the resulting black hole has zero angular momentum but non-zero angular velocity, as it is just carried along by the dragging effect of the disk.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1984

Particle excitation, airglow and H2 vibrational disequilibrium in the atmosphere of Jupiter

The extreme ultraviolet EUV emission produced by particle excitation of the hydrogen atmospheres of Jupiter and Saturn is examined using model calculations to determine the nature of the energy deposition process and the effect of such processes on atmospheric structure. Tasks ranging from examination of phenomenologically related processes on Saturn and Titan to analysis of experimental laboratory data required to allow accurate modeling of emissions from hydrogenic atmospheres are investigated. An explanation of the hydrogen H Ly(alpha) bulge in Jupiter's emission from the equatorial region is presented. It is proposed that Saturn, rather then Titan is the major source of the extended hydrogen cloud. The atomic hydrogen detected at the rings of Saturn may originate predominantly from the same source. A cross calibration is obtained between the Pioneer 10 EUV photometer and the Voyager EUV spectrometers, thus providing a direct measure of the temporal morphology of Jupiter between a minimum and a maximum in solar activity. Atomic and molecular data required for the research program are analyzed. An extrapolation of conditions in the upper atmospheres of Jupiter and Saturn produces a predicted condition at Uranus in terms of excitation and hydrogen escape rates that may be observed at Voyager-Uranus encounter.

Shemansky, D. E.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Combined MODIS/AMSR-E SST Composites for Regional Weather Applications

Recent applications of a high resolution MODlS composite SST product have clearly shown the importance of developing high-resolution SST data sets for coastal applications and modeling. In general, coupling between the oceans and atmospheres has been closely linked to SST gradients and fronts, indicating a need for high resolution SSTs, specifically in the areas of large gradients associated with coastal regions. Thus an accurate determination of SST gradients has become critical for determining the appropriate air-sea coupling and the influence on ocean modeling. Recent research is focused on improving the accuracy and spatial coverage of the current operational MODIS SST composite product provided by the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) project and distributed to the community. GHRSST-PP MODlS data and microwave AMSR-E data are being combined to produce composite data sets for both the West Coast and East Coast of the United States, including the Gulf of Mexico. The use of 1 km MODIS data has explicit advantages over other SST products including its global coverage and high resolution. The AMSR-E data will reduce the latency of the composites. A strategy for utilizing the error characteristics contained in the GHRSST data has been developed. This strategy will include using the error characteristics directly to calculate weights in the SST composites, uncertainty maps based on the composite biases and RMS errors, and latency products calculated in the compositing process. Recent accomplishments include the development of an enhanced compositing approach based on the error-weighted combination of recent clear MODIS SST values, where the error contributions come from measurement error, potential cloud contamination, and data latency sources. Future plans call for the inclusion of AMSR-E SST values with appropriate weights based upon measurement accuracy, MODIS-AMSR-E SST bias, and latency.

Jedlovec, Gary↗

DOE OSTI2018

Cost benefit analysis for smart grid projects

The U.S. is unusual in that a definition of the term “smart grid” was written into legislation, appearing in the Energy Independence and Security Act (2007). When the recession called for stimulus spending and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA, 2009) was passed, a framework already existed for identification of smart grid projects. About $4.5B of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (U.S. DOE’s) $37B allocation from ARRA was directed to smart grid projects of two types, investment grants and demonstrations. Matching funds from other sources more than doubled the total value of ARRA-funded smart grid projects. The Smart Grid Investment Grant Program (SGIG) consumed all but $620M of the ARRA funds, which was available for the 32 projects in the Smart Grid Demonstration Program (SGDP, or demonstrations). Given the economic potential of these projects and the substantial investments required, there was keen interest in estimating the benefits of the projects (i.e., quantifying and monetizing the performance of smart grid technologies). Common method development and application, data collection, and analysis to calculate and publicize the benefits were central objectives of the program. For this purpose standard methods and a software tool, the Smart Grid Computational Tool (SGCT), were developed by U.S. DOE and a spreadsheet model was made freely available to grantees and other analysts. The methodology was intended to define smart grid technologies or assets, the mechanisms by which they generate functions, their impacts and, ultimately, their benefits. The SGCT and its application to the Demonstration Projects are described, and actual projects in Southern California and in China are selected to test and illustrate the tool. The usefulness of the methodology and tool for international analyses is then assessed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development of a Direct Neutral Density Diagnostic for Fusion Edge Plasmas

As magnetically confined plasmas progress towards ignition and long pulse experiments, measurement and control of the neutral density in the plasma edge has become a critical issue for stability, formation of transport barriers, and fueling. Recent experiments by our research group have demonstrated that is possible to use two-photon absorption laser induced fluorescence (TA-LIF) to directly measure the density of neutral hydrogen in helicon sources and in the HIT-SI3 spheromak. While those experiments validated key elements of a diagnostic system that would enable similar measurements in tokamak plasmas, they did not fully address the issue of performance optimization in the presence of intense background light at the fluorescence wavelength and they also identified a number of other issues that must be resolved before successful TALIF neutral density measurements in a tokamak are likely to be achieved. Additional specific concerns raised during design reviews with the leadership of the DIII-D tokamak facility included: the minimum detection threshold for this TALIF diagnostic (currently ~ 5 x 10 15 m -3 ) and the rate at which neutral density measurements could be obtained. Improving the system performance to reduce the minimum detection threshold and demonstrating a faster rate of density determination are required to advance this diagnostic to the level where it could be considered for implementation on a major tokamak facility in the USA. The key issues that will be addressed through additional technological development are: validation of a new, chromatic aberration-free, xenon calibration scheme; increasing the output power of the laser; and suppression of background emission at the fluorescence wavelength through optimization of the collection optics and gating of the photomultiplier detector with a goal of obtaining a minimum detection threshold of 5 x 10 14 m -3 . Another key technological development, so far only tested in helicon source experiments, is the validation of Doppler-free TALIF as a means of obtaining higher speed, calibrated, neutral density measurements in tokamak-like conditions at the full cadence of the pulsed TALIF laser. In this work, we propose to complete these technological advancements through installation and testing of our prototype TALIF system on the proto-MPEX experiment at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The proto-MPEX facility will provide plasma conditions similar to the edge plasma of a major tokamak experiment but with pulse lengths and pulse repetition rates ideally suited for extensive development of a TALIF neutral density diagnostic. Measurement of the absolute neutral density in the edge of a magnetically confined plasma is necessary for plasma density control; calculation of charge-exchange power losses; control of plasma-wall interactions; determination of the braking of plasma flow; determination of the fuel mixture in deuterium-tritium plasma; and understanding the dynamics of the divertor region in the plasma edge. In terms of potential impact on the worldwide fusion program, we note that in burning plasma experiments, such as ITER, a 100 mJ/pulse Doppler-free TALIF diagnostic should be capable of directly measuring the deuterium/tritium (D/T) isotope ratio in the outer 0.5 to 1.0 m of the plasma radius. The D/T ratio is a critically important parameter for the control and optimization of burning plasmas. Therefore, development of the diagnostic system proposed here is also relevant to long-term US participation in diagnostic development for large tokamaks.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1987

Nonlinear force-free magnetic fields: Calculation and applicatin to astrophysics

The problem concerned in this work is that of calculating magnetic field configurations in which the Lorentz force (vector)j x (vector)B is everywhere zero, subject to specified boundary conditions. The magnetic field is represented in terms of Clebsch variables in the form (vector)B = del alpha x del beta. These variables are constant on any field line. The most appropriate choice of boundary conditions is to specify the values of alpha and beta on the bounding surface. It is proposed that the field lines move in the direction of local Lorentz force and relax towards a force-free field configuration. This concept leads to an iteration procedure for modifying the variables alpha and beta that tends asymptotically towards the force-free state. This method is first applied to a simple problem in two rectangular dimensions; the calculation shows that the convergence of magnetic field energy to a minimum state (force-free) is close to exponential. This method is then applied to study some astrophysical force-free magnetic fields, such as the structures and evolution of magnetic fields of rotating sunspots and accretion disks. The implication of the results, as related to the mechanisms of solar flares, extragalactic radio sources and radio jets, are discussed.

Yang, Wei-Hong↗

NASA NTRS1997

Frozen-Flux Modelling for Epochs 1915 and 1980

The frozen-flux hypothesis for the Earth's liquid core assumes that convective terms dominate diffusive terms in the induction equation governing the behaviour of the magnetic field at the surface of the core. While highly plausible on the basis of estimates of physical parameters, the hypothesis has been questioned. To study this hypothesis, we improve the method which tests the consistency of magnetic observations with the hypothesis by constructing simple, flux-conserving core-field models fitting the data at pairs of epochs. We introduce a new approach that fixes the patch configurations at each of the two epochs before inversion, so that each configuration is consistent with its respective data set but possesses the same patch topology. We expand upon the inversion algorithm, using quadratic programming to maintain the proper flux sign within patches; the modelling calculations are also extended to include data types that depend non-linearly on the model. Every test of a hypothesis depends on the characterization of the observational uncertainties; we undertake a thorough review of this question. For main-field models, the primary source of uncertainty comes from the crustal field. We base our analysis on statistical models of the crustal magnetization, adjusted to bring it into better conformity with our data set. The noise model permits us to take into account the correlations between the measurements and requires that a different weighting be given to horizontal and vertical components. It also indicates that the observations should be fit more closely than has been the practice heretofore. We apply the revised method to Magsat data from 1980 and survey and observatory data from 1915.5, two data sets believed to be particularly difficult to reconcile with the frozen-flux hypothesis. We compute a pair of simple, flux-conserving models that fit the averaged data from each epoch. We therefore conclude that present knowledge of the geomagnetic fields of 1980 and 1915.5 is consistent with the frozen-flux hypothesis.

OBrien, Michael S.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Benchmark Exercise Report for Experimental Study of Bubble Scrubbing in Water Coolant Pool

Mechanistic assessments of radionuclide release during postulated accidents are expected to be included in advanced reactor license applications. The mechanistic source term (MST) provides an opportunity for vendors to realistically evaluate the radiological consequences of an incident, and may aid in justifying reduced emergency planning zones and plant sites. However, the development of MSTs for advanced nuclear reactors is challenging because there are numerous phenomena that can affect the transport and retention of radionuclides. As part of a trial MST assessment for a metal-fueled, pool-type sodium cooled fast reactor (SFR), led by Argonne National Laboratory, a simplified radionuclide transport code (SRT code) was developed, which includes models to estimate the quantity of fission product aerosols scrubbed in the sodium pool during postulated accident scenarios. In a pool-type SFR, when fission products are released into the coolant pool due to failure of fuel pins, most of the radionuclides are scrubbed by the coolant pool, but some have the potential to migrate to the cover gas region through entrainment within gas bubbles. The SRT code contains a model that evaluates this scrubbing behavior and calculates the fraction of fission product aerosols that reach the cover gas. Due to a lack of available validation data for sodium pool scrubbing, the U.S. Department of Energy funded an experiment at the University of Wisconsin-Madison to measure aerosol scrubbing by injecting air bubbles containing aerosol into a coolant pool. Prior to performing an experiment with liquid sodium, a water loop experiment was performed. Their experiment evaluated the effect of changing the aerosol size, aerosol density, aerosol concentration, bubble size, and pool depth on the aerosol scrubbing efficiency of the pool. In this benchmark experiment, the base tests were conducted by repeated tests of isolated bubbles. Afterwards, more prototypic tests with bubble swarms were performed to evaluate the interactions between the bubbles. The bubble swarm test was able to confirm that a larger amount of aerosol scrubbing occurred than the single bubble test. It was also confirmed that as the bubble size, aerosol density, and pool height increase, the extent of pool scrubbing also increases and does not change with the aerosol concentration. In addition, since the degree of scrubbing is the lowest at aerosol sizes between 0.01 and 1 μm, that is, the largest amount of aerosol is emitted, it was confirmed that the analysis of this size in MST is the most important. This benchmark experiment informs the direction of future sodium experiments.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Addressing Low-Cost Methane Sensor Calibration Shortcomings with Machine Learning

Quantifying methane emissions is essential for meeting near-term climate goals and is typically carried out using methane concentrations measured downwind of the source. One major source of methane that is important to observe and promptly remediate is fugitive emissions from oil and gas production sites but installing methane sensors at the thousands of sites within a production basin is expensive. In recent years, relatively inexpensive metal oxide sensors have been used to measure methane concentrations at production sites. Current methods used to calibrate metal oxide sensors have been shown to have significant shortcomings, resulting in limited confidence in methane concentrations generated by these sensors. To address this, we investigate using machine learning (ML) to generate a model that converts metal oxide sensor output to methane mixing ratios. To generate test data, two metal oxide sensors, TGS2600 and TGS2611, were collocated with a trace methane analyzer downwind of controlled methane releases. Over the duration of the measurements, the trace gas analyzer’s average methane mixing ratio was 2.40 ppm with a maximum of 147.6 ppm. The average calculated methane mixing ratios for the TGS2600 and TGS2611 using the ML algorithm were 2.42 ppm and 2.40 ppm, with maximum values of 117.5 ppm and 106.3 ppm, respectively. A comparison of histograms generated using the analyzer and metal oxide sensors mixing ratios shows overlap coefficients of 0.95 and 0.94 for the TGS2600 and TGS2611, respectively. Overall, our results showed there was a good agreement between the ML-derived metal oxide sensors’ mixing ratios and those generated using the more accurate trace gas analyzer. This suggests that the response of lower-cost sensors calibrated using ML could be used to generate mixing ratios with precision and accuracy comparable to higher priced trace methane analyzers. This would improve confidence in low-cost sensors’ response, reduce the cost of sensor deployment, and allow for timely and accurate tracking of methane emissions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Application of quantitative risk assessment to address stakeholder questions in geologic carbon storage

Ambitious international greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets demand a rapid transformation to a low-carbon economy. This transformation includes the accelerated adoption of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) technology. However, as with any large-scale engineering enterprise, the widespread commercial-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) raises important questions about technology and cost-effectiveness, safety, environmental risk, and long-term liability. Effectively assessing and managing risks and liability associated with GCS projects is a key technical need throughout the project life cycle-from site selection and permitting to monitoring design, operational risk management, and post-operational site closure. This presentation highlights recent advancements in tools for quantitative risk assessment, being developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). NRAP is a multi-year, multinational laboratory research collaboration sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management. Our focus will be on these tools' applications in addressing critical stakeholder questions related to supporting permitting to ensure secure and environmentally protective storage; designing effective and efficient monitoring plans; evaluating the effectiveness of remedial actions and risk management alternatives; and informing liability assessment and investment decisions. This paper will detail the key functionality of NRAP’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), a computational framework for assessing leakage risk and containment assurance. This model features streamlined workflows for calculating leakage risk profiles, delineating risk-based area of review, and assessing contingency plans and post-injection site care requirements. ORION is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit to help operators assess the seismic hazard at a carbon storage site. The State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT), designed to assess subsurface stress conditions and evaluate geomechanical risk resulting from CO2 injection in an area of interest will also be presented. We will also introduce a prototype model to evaluate storage project costs and liability associated with risk management. The Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) model uses results from forecasts of leakage and induced seismicity risk to estimate the lifecycle cost of managing risk. Finally, a preliminary example of how the NRAP Risk-based Adaptive Monitoring Plan (RAMP) tool can be used to design efficient and effective site monitoring plans and estimate the detectability of fluid leakage will be provided. The relevance of these tools for addressing key stakeholder questions amidst uncertainty will be emphasized.

decision support↗

DOE OSTI2026

Thermodynamics and its prediction and CALPHAD modeling: Review, state of the art, and perspectives

Thermodynamics is a science concerning the state of a system, whether it is stable, metastable, or unstable, when interacting with its surroundings. The combined law of thermodynamics derived by Gibbs about 150 years ago laid the foundation of thermodynamics. In Gibbs combined law, the entropy production due to internal processes was not included, and the 2nd law was thus practically removed from the Gibbs combined law, so it is only applicable to systems under equilibrium, thus commonly termed as equilibrium or Gibbs thermodynamics. Gibbs further derived the classical statistical thermodynamics in terms of the probability of configurations in a system in the later 1800's and early 1900's. With the quantum mechanics (QM) developed in 1920's, the QM-based statistical thermodynamics was established and connected to classical statistical thermodynamics at the classical limit as shown by Landau in the 1940's. In 1960's the development of density functional theory (DFT) by Kohn and co-workers enabled the QM prediction of properties of the ground state of a system. On the other hand, the entropy production due to internal processes in non-equilibrium systems was studied separately by Onsager in 1930's and Prigogine and co-workers in the 1950's. In 1960's to 1970's the digitization of thermodynamics was developed by Kaufman in the framework of the CALculation of PHAse Diagrams (CALPHAD) modeling of individual phases with internal degrees of freedom. CALPHAD modeling of thermodynamics and atomic transport properties has enabled computational design of complex materials in the last 50 years. Our recently termed zentropy theory integrates DFT and statistical mechanics through the replacement of the internal energy of each individual configuration by its DFT-predicted free energy. The zentropy theory is capable of accurately predicting the free energy of individual phases, transition temperatures and properties of magnetic and ferroelectric materials with free energies of individual configurations solely from DFT-based calculations and without fitting parameters, and is being tested for other phenomena including superconductivity, quantum criticality, and black holes. Those predictions include the singularity at critical points with divergence of physical properties, negative thermal expansion, and the strongly correlated physics. Furthermore, those individual configurations may thus be considered as the genomic building blocks of individual phases in the spirit of the materials genome®. This has the potential to shift the paradigm of CALPHAD modeling from being heavily dependent on experimental inputs to becoming fully predictive with inputs solely from DFT-based calculations and machine learning models built on those calculations and existing experimental data through newly developed and future open-source tools. Furthermore, through the combined law of thermodynamics including the internal entropy production, it is shown that the kinetic coefficient matrix of independent internal processes is diagonal with respect to the conjugate potentials in the combined law, and the cross phenomena that the phenomenological Onsager flux and reciprocal relationships are due to the dependence of the conjugate potential of a molar quantity on nonconjugate molar quantities and other potentials, which can be predicted by the zentropy theory and CALPHAD modeling.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven Community-centered Resilient Assessment and Planning Toolkit for Nexus of Energy and Water (DCRAPT-NEW)

Urban areas, including Detroit and Pittsburgh, have suffered significant dual outages of the electrical and water infrastructure in the past decade due, in part, to the increasing number of extreme weather events. With increasing temperatures and rainfall intensity, these regions need to prepare for increasing extreme events through community-based energy and water resilience analysis, planning, and enhancement. This project developed a suite of open-source, open-access, community-centered, data-driven assessment and distributed energy resource (DER) and planning tools for energy and water resilience enhancement in urban areas. Through establishing a multi-level community awareness and engagement mechanism and a comprehensive collection of power outage and flooding data, an innovative group of community energy and water resilience assessment and planning tools have been developed for a wide range of users with differing and variable sets of data available to them. The developed tools include (1) DOE EAGLE-I data-driven, deep-learning assisted resilience assessment and DER planning tools at the county level with socioeconomic factors incorporated; (2) Utility annual power outage data-driven tools for long term resilience assessment and DER planning and 15-min power outage data-driven tools for short term resilience assessment and planning; (3) Detailed engineering tools for energy and water systems resilience assessment and planning when the system topology and component fragility curves are available; (4) Alternative Resiliency Metric Calculation that extracts and separates outage and restoration processes; and (5) Co-optimization tools that evaluate the resilience of the power and sewage system and allow users to conduct joint planning with energy and wastewater systems. The developed tools provide planners, decision-makers, and stakeholders with powerful capabilities to systematically evaluate system/community resilience and optimal and actionable guidance for enhancing resilience while prioritizing DER investments. The tools have been used and validated in Detroit and Pittsburgh and can be used in other areas of the nation. In addition, this project will (1) advance the knowledge and applications of machine-learning methods in analyzing and fusing different layers of information and generating meaningful data points such as generating rare weather events; (2) significantly improve the energy and water resilience of the identified communities in Detroit and Pittsburgh and prepare for more frequent and severe weather conditions; (3) help communities assess extreme weather event impacts and address short-term and long-term resilience-related issues The developed tools have been made public via GitHub and demonstrated to community stakeholders and utility companies via the two annual workshops and numerous community engagement meetings. The project outcomes are also disseminated through publications in various journals and conference proceedings, and presentations at top conferences.

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