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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 685 records · Page 38
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1979

Multiple object tracking with non-unique data-to-object association via generalized hypothesis testing

A generalized hypothesis testing approach is applied to the problem of tracking several objects where several different associations of data with objects are possible. Such problems occur, for instance, when attempting to distinctly track several aircraft maneuvering near each other or when tracking ships at sea. Conceptually, the problem is solved by first, associating data with objects in a statistically reasonable fashion and then, tracking with a bank of Kalman filters. The objects are assumed to have motion characterized by a fixed but unknown deterministic portion plus a random process portion modeled by a shaping filter. For example, the object might be assumed to have a mean straight line path about which it maneuvers in a random manner. Several hypothesized associations of data with objects are possible because of ambiguity as to which object the data comes from, false alarm/detection errors, and possible uncertainty in the number of objects being tracked. The statistical likelihood function is computed for each possible hypothesized association of data with objects. Then the generalized likelihood is computed by maximizing the likelihood over parameters that define the deterministic motion of the object.

Porter, D. W.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Laboratory evaluation of the pointing stability of the ASPS Vernier System

The annular suspension and pointing system (ASPS) is an end-mount experiment pointing system designed for use in the space shuttle. The results of the ASPS Vernier System (AVS) pointing stability tests conducted in a laboratory environment are documented. A simulated zero-G suspension was used to support the test payload in the laboratory. The AVS and the suspension were modelled and incorporated into a simulation of the laboratory test. Error sources were identified and pointing stability sensitivities were determined via simulation. Statistical predictions of laboratory test performance were derived and compared to actual laboratory test results. The predicted mean pointing stability during simulated shuttle disturbances was 1.22 arc seconds; the actual mean laboratory test pointing stability was 1.36 arc seconds. The successful prediction of laboratory test results provides increased confidence in the analytical understanding of the AVS magnetic bearing technology and allows confident prediction of in-flight performance. Computer simulations of ASPS, operating in the shuttle disturbance environment, predict in-flight pointing stability errors less than 0.01 arc seconds.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1981

Some statistical problems inherent in measuring precipitation

A formula permitting calculation of the mean-square error of the mean value of a random variable due to periodic sampling is derived and applied to estimating the sampling error for satellite observation of the mean rainfall during the GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE). The effects of both spatial resolution and frequency of observation on the sampling error are summarized in graphs. It is found that four observations per day are sufficient to determine the monthly mean rainfall over an area of 2.5 deg square (280km x 280km) to within a standard deviation of 5 percent of its mean value; two samples per day would yield an error with a standard deviation slightly less than 10 percent of the mean. A satellite instrument with less frequent sampling may produce significantly greater error in the estimate of monthly mean rainfall.

Flueck, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1984

A Statistical Evaluation of the Limitations of Single-channel Intermediate-band Photoelectric Stellar Photometry

Error distribution in differential photometry for a moving solar system object is investigated. The results of differential photometry of several dozen pairs of planetary comparison stars observed since 1972 are reviewed. Each pair of stars was observed along with the corresponding planet or satellite, typically about ten times during the course of a single apparation lasting about four months. The comparison stars are chosen to bracket the opposition position of the planet, the expected opposition magnitude, and solar color. In practice, this means that the range of spectral type was mid-F to early K, the range of B-Y color was about 0.25 to 0.95 mag, the range of differential magnitude was less than 2 mag but most often less than 1.0 mag, and the difference in declination was typically less than 3 deg. The difference in air mass at meridian transit was usually less than 0.03, and rarely exceeded 0.01. Hence, differential extinction effects are negligible, except under extraordinary conditions.

Lockweed, G. W.↗
NASA NTRS1989

A statistical study of radio-source structure effects on astrometric very long baseline interferometry observations

Errors from a number of sources in astrometric very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) have been reduced in recent years through a variety of methods of calibration and modeling. Such reductions have led to a situation in which the extended structure of the natural radio sources used in VLBI is a significant error source in the effort to improve the accuracy of the radio reference frame. In the past, work has been done on individual radio sources to establish the magnitude of the errors caused by their particular structures. The results of calculations on 26 radio sources are reported in which an effort is made to determine the typical delay and delay-rate errors for a number of sources having different types of structure. It is found that for single observations of the types of radio sources present in astrometric catalogs, group-delay and phase-delay scatter in the 50 to 100 psec range due to source structure can be expected at 8.4 GHz on the intercontinental baselines available in the Deep Space Network (DSN). Delay-rate scatter of approx. 5 x 10(exp -15) sec sec(exp -1) (or approx. 0.002 mm sec (exp -1) is also expected. If such errors mapped directly into source position errors, they would correspond to position uncertainties of approx. 2 to 5 nrad, similar to the best position determinations in the current JPL VLBI catalog. With the advent of wider bandwidth VLBI systems on the large DSN antennas, the system noise will be low enough so that the structure-induced errors will be a significant part of the error budget. Several possibilities for reducing the structure errors are discussed briefly, although it is likely that considerable effort will have to be devoted to the structure problem in order to reduce the typical error by a factor of two or more.

Ulvestad, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Filter Tuning Using the Chi-Squared Statistic

The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) performs orbit determination (OD) for the Aqua and Aura satellites. Both satellites are located in low Earth orbit (LEO), and are part of what is considered the A-Train satellite constellation. Both spacecraft are currently in the science phase of their respective missions. The FDF has recently been tasked with delivering definitive covariance for each satellite.The main source of orbit determination used for these missions is the Orbit Determination Toolkit developed by Analytical Graphics Inc. (AGI). This software uses an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to estimate the states of both spacecraft. The filter incorporates force modelling, ground station and space network measurements to determine spacecraft states. It also generates a covariance at each measurement. This covariance can be useful for evaluating the overall performance of the tracking data measurements and the filter itself. An accurate covariance is also useful for covariance propagation which is utilized in collision avoidance operations. It is also valuable when attempting to determine if the current orbital solution will meet mission requirements in the future.This paper examines the use of the Chi-square statistic as a means of evaluating filter performance. The Chi-square statistic is calculated to determine the realism of a covariance based on the prediction accuracy and the covariance values at a given point in time. Once calculated, it is the distribution of this statistic that provides insight on the accuracy of the covariance.For the EKF to correctly calculate the covariance, error models associated with tracking data measurements must be accurately tuned. Over estimating or under estimating these error values can have detrimental effects on the overall filter performance. The filter incorporates ground station measurements, which can be tuned based on the accuracy of the individual ground stations. It also includes measurements from the NASA space network (SN), which can be affected by the assumed accuracy of the TDRS satellite state at the time of the measurement.The force modelling in the EKF is also an important factor that affects the propagation accuracy and covariance sizing. The dominant force in the LEO orbit regime is the drag force caused by atmospheric drag. Accurate accounting of the drag force is especially important for the accuracy of the propagated state. The implementation of a box and wing model to improve drag estimation accuracy, and its overall effect on the covariance state is explored.The process of tuning the EKF for Aqua and Aura support is described, including examination of the measurement errors of available observation types (Doppler and range), and methods of dealing with potentially volatile atmospheric drag modeling. Predictive accuracy and the distribution of the Chi-square statistic, calculated based of the ODTK EKF solutions, are assessed versus accepted norms for the orbit regime.

Covariance Analysis↗
NASA NTRS1990

Analysis of AVHRR, CZCS and historical in situ data off the Oregon Coast

The original scientific objectives of this grant were to: (1) characterize the seasonal cycles and interannual variability for phytoplankton concentrations and sea surface temperature (SST) in the California Current using satellite data; and (2) to explore the spatial and temporal relationship between these variables and surface wind forcing. An additional methodological objective was to develop statistical methods for forming mean fields, which minimize the effects of random data gaps and errors in the irregularly sampled CZCS (Coastal Zone Color Scanner) and AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) satellite data. A final task was to evaluate the level of uncertainty in the wind fields used for the statistical analysis. Funding in the first year included part of the cost of an image processing system to enable this and other projects to process and analyze satellite data. This report consists of summaries of the major projects carried out with all or partial support from this grant. The appendices include a list of papers and professional presentations supported by the grant, as well as reprints of the major papers and reports.

Strub, P. Ted↗
NASA NTRS1979

Accuracy assessment in the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment

The Accuracy Assessment System (AAS) of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) was responsible for determining the accuracy and reliability of LACIE estimates of wheat production, area, and yield, made at regular intervals throughout the crop season, and for investigating the various LACIE error sources, quantifying these errors, and relating them to their causes. Some results of using the AAS during the three years of LACIE are reviewed. As the program culminated, AAS was able not only to meet the goal of obtaining accurate statistical estimates of sampling and classification accuracy, but also the goal of evaluating component labeling errors. Furthermore, the ground-truth data processing matured from collecting data for one crop (small grains) to collecting, quality-checking, and archiving data for all crops in a LACIE small segment.

Houston, A. G.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Correlation techniques to determine model form in robust nonlinear system realization/identification

The fundamental challenge in identification of nonlinear dynamic systems is determining the appropriate form of the model. A robust technique is presented which essentially eliminates this problem for many applications. The technique is based on the Minimum Model Error (MME) optimal estimation approach. A detailed literature review is included in which fundamental differences between the current approach and previous work is described. The most significant feature is the ability to identify nonlinear dynamic systems without prior assumption regarding the form of the nonlinearities, in contrast to existing nonlinear identification approaches which usually require detailed assumptions of the nonlinearities. Model form is determined via statistical correlation of the MME optimal state estimates with the MME optimal model error estimates. The example illustrations indicate that the method is robust with respect to prior ignorance of the model, and with respect to measurement noise, measurement frequency, and measurement record length.

Stry, Greselda I.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing the Viability of Using GEOS-Forecast Product for Landslides Forecasting: A Step Toward Early Warning System

Landslides across the globe are mostly triggered by extreme rainfall events affecting infrastructure, transportation and livelihoods. The risks are rarely quantified due to lack of data, analytical skills and limited modeling techniques. Knowledge of local to global scale landslide risks provides communities and national agencies the ability to adapt disaster management practices to mitigate and recover from these hazards. In order to minimize the risks and improve characterization of community resilience to landslides, it is vital to have reliable information about the factors triggering landslides such as rainfall, well ahead in time. Forecasting potential landslide activity and impacts can be achieved through reliable precipitation forecast models. However, it is challenging because of the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation, an important factor in triggering landslides. Evaluation of the precipitation field, associated errors, and sampling uncertainties is integral for development of efficient and reliable landslide forecasting and early warning system. This study develops a methodology to assess the viability of using a precipitation field provided by a global model and its potential integration in the landslide forecasting system. The study focuses on the comparison between the IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission) and GEOS (NASA Goddard Earth Observing System)-Forecast product over contiguous United States (CONUS). GEOS model assimilates new observations every 6 hours, at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC. The framework is tested on the GEOS-Forecast Model initialized at 00 UTC using daily IMERG early product as reference using both categorical and continuous statistics. The categorical statistics includes the probability of detection (POD), success ratio (SR), critical success index (CSI), and the hit bias. Continuous statistics such as correlation, normalized standard deviation, and root-mean-square error are also evaluated. Overall, GEOS-Forecast precipitation field over the analysis period (~1 year) show underestimation with respect to IMERG early for the daily accumulated rainfall. However, the probability distribution function and cumulative distribution function of both show similar patterns. In terms of correlations, POD, SR, CSI, hit bias, the performance varies with respect to the rainfall threshold used.

Sana Khan↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Investigation Into Possible Systematic Effects on Neutron Star Radius Estimates using NICER-like Synthetic Data

Neutron star cores contain the densest matter in the observable universe. The state of this matter is of interest in numerous fields, but laboratory experiments cannot explore this matter. Although the composition of the matter would be of great interest, macroscopic observables such as the neutron star mass-radius relation depend primarily on the equation of state (EOS). As a result, precise and reliable radius measurements would be valuable in constraining the EOS. However, most attempts at radius measurements are susceptible to systematic errors, meaning the inferred radius can be significantly biased even though the fit to the data appears to be statistically good. Previous studies suggested that radii inferred using X-ray data provided by NASA’s NICER mission may be more immune from such systematic errors. This is in part because, compared with previous measurements that obtained averaged spectra and fluxes, NICER observes millisecond pulsars by timing the photons so precisely, it is possible to obtain the spectrum as a function of rotational phase and see variations such as heated regions on the star rotate into and out of view hundreds of times per second. This extra information seems promising to break degeneracies and mitigate systematic errors, but a more in-depth study is necessary. We report the first steps of that study, in which we generate NICER-like synthetic data and determine the quality of fit and bias in radius obtained when we fit the data using a model different from the model used to generate the data.

Isiah Holt↗
NASA NTRS2004

High-Accuracy Surface Figure Measurement of Silicon Mirrors at 80 K

This report describes the equipment, experimental methods, and first results at a new facility for interferometric measurement of cryogenically-cooled spherical mirrors at the Goddard Space Flight Center Optics Branch. The procedure, using standard phase-shifting interferometry, has an standard combined uncertainty of 3.6 nm rms in its representation of the two-dimensional surface figure error at 80, and an uncertainty of plus or minus 1 nm in the rms statistic itself. The first mirror tested was a concave spherical silicon foam-core mirror, with a clear aperture of 120 mm. The optic surface was measured at room temperature using standard absolute techniques; and then the change in surface figure error from room temperature to 80 K was measured. The mirror was cooled within a cryostat. and its surface figure error measured through a fused-silica window. The facility and techniques will be used to measure the surface figure error at 20K of prototype lightweight silicon carbide and Cesic mirrors developed by Galileo Avionica (Italy) for the European Space Agency (ESA).

Blake, Peter↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tilted lidar profiling: Development and testing of a novel scanning strategy for inhomogeneous flows

The most common profiling techniques for the atmospheric boundary layer based on a monostatic Doppler wind lidar rely on the assumption of horizontal homogeneity of the flow. This assumption breaks down in the presence of either natural or human-made obstructions that can generate significant flow distortions. The need to deploy ground-based lidars near operating wind turbines for the American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN) spurred a search for novel profiling techniques that could avoid the influence of the flow modifications caused by the wind farms. With this goal in mind, two well-established profiling scanning strategies have been retrofitted to scan in a tilted fashion and steer the beams away from the more severely inhomogeneous region of the flow. Results from a field test at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's 135-m meteorological tower show that the accuracy of the horizontal mean flow reconstruction is insensitive to the tilt of the scan, although higher-order wind statistics are severely deteriorated at extreme tilts mainly due to geometrical error amplification. A numerical study of the AWAKEN domain based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and large-eddy simulation are also conducted to test the effectiveness of tilted profiling. It is shown that a threefold reduction of the error on inflow mean wind speed can be achieved for a lidar placed at the base of the turbine using tilted profiling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Moving lens effect: Simulations, forecasts, and foreground mitigation

The peculiar motion of massive objects across the line of sight imprints a dipolar temperature anisotropy pattern on the cosmic microwave background known as the moving lens effect. This effect provides a unique probe of the transverse components of the peculiar velocity field, but has not yet been detected due to its small size. We implement and validate a stacking estimator for the moving lens signal using a galaxy catalog as a tracer of massive haloes combined with reconstructed velocities from the galaxy number density field. Using simulations, we forecast detection prospects for the moving lens signal from current and upcoming microwave background and galaxy surveys. Here, we demonstrate a new foreground mitigation strategy likely sufficient for current datasets, and discuss various sources of systematic error and noise. Upcoming galaxy surveys will provide high-significance statistical detections of the moving lens effect.

Astrophysical & cosmological simulations↗
DOE OSTI2026

Correlation-aware binning for small-angle neutron scattering via Gaussian-process inference

Binning in small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) is typically performed empirically, with fixed parameters chosen for convenience rather than statistical optimality. Such practices often fail to balance statistical precision and spatial resolution, leading to inconsistencies across instruments and datasets. Here we establish a correlation-aware framework that determines the optimal bin width from first principles by extending the classical Freedman–Diaconis (FD) rule to account for inter-bin correlations with a Gaussian process. In this formulation, the scattering intensity is treated as a smooth stochastic field whose statistical coherence is described by a covariance matrix. Analytical expressions of errors derived from this model yield closed-form criteria that separate the total deviation into contributions from counting noise, aliasing distortion and curvature-dependent correlation effects. Expressed in reduced variables, the resulting dimensionless error surface reveals a continuous transition from the uncorrelated FD regime to the correlation-dominated limit, providing a unified description of noise suppression and resolution control. Because the formulation depends only on the profile characteristics of scattering intensity I(Q), specifically its average intensity and first- and second-order derivatives, it applies generally to any SANS measurement regardless of sample, instrument or geometry. Experimental validation using small- and ultra-small-angle neutron scattering data confirms the predicted scaling behavior, demonstrating that correlation-aware inference systematically reduces mean-squared error and enables information-efficient reproducible data reduction across materials and instruments.

Tung, Chi-Huan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000221972074)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimating Fine-Resolution Shortwave Broadband Albedo of Croplands from Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 Data

Altered surface albedo due to land-cover conversions and management is a significant driver of global climate change. Albedo can be directly measured at ground stations, and remote sensing data can be used to scale-up albedo values to regional and global levels. Some previous studies have retrieved fine-resolution (10–30 m) instantaneous albedo and coarse-resolution (500–1000 m) daily mean albedo from remote sensing data, but they all required the input of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) albedo information at 500-m resolution, and none have assembled both instantaneous and daily albedo based exclusively on fine-resolution satellite data. Here, to address this issue, we compiled 387 instantaneous and 346 daily albedo records using field net radiometer measurements from the bioenergy croplands at the W. K. Kellogg Biological Station in southwest Michigan. We then connected these albedo records with a suite of variables derived from harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 data through two machine learning algorithms (random forest regression and extreme gradient boosting) to retrieve clear-sky instantaneous and daily shortwave broadband albedo. The performance statistics indicate reasonable accuracy of model results [root-mean-square error (RMSE)] around or below 0.03 except for snow-covered surfaces), suggesting that the retrieval of both instantaneous and daily albedo based exclusively on fine-resolution satellite data is promising. To facilitate the use of fine-resolution albedo products at the global level, future efforts need to include more albedo records of diverse surface cover types, as well as to accurately model daily albedo for cloudy days to address the “clear-sky bias.”

Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2↗
NASA NTRS1972

An auditory display in a dual-axis tracking task.

Results of a study in which subjects were presented concurrently with the primary task of controlling a second-order plant and the secondary task of controlling a first-order plant. The plant errors for the two tasks were shown on separate visual displays. An auditory display, whose output varied in frequency and volume with the error, was used to supplement the secondary task in half of the runs. To study the effects of the auditory display, two performance measures were obtained: (1) the integral of the squared error (ISE) and (2) the describing functions of the human operator. Statistical analysis of the ISE measures indicated that when the secondary task was supplemented with an auditory display, there was a significant improvement in performance on the secondary task. The performance on the primary task improved on the average, but not significantly. The variances of the ISE values decreased for both the tasks, indicating a more consistent behavior with the auditory display. The describing function analysis showed that supplementing the secondary task with the auditory display increased the low frequency gain of the human operator for this task. The describing functions for the primary task did not show any apparent changes.

Mirchandani, P. B.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Verification of redundancy management design

Statistical method checks designs by simulating system operating conditions and adding error factors. Method has potential applicability to commercial and industrial situations where redundancy management system is used to detect and isolate failed components.

Gelderloos, H. C.↗