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DOE OSTI2013

Kiloampere, Variable-Temperature, Critical-Current Measurements of High-Field Superconductors

We review variable-temperature, transport critical-current ($I_\text{c}$) measurements made on commercial superconductors over a range of critical currents from less than 0.1 A to about 1 kA. We have developed and used a number of systems to make these measurements over the last 15 years. Two exemplary variable-temperature systems with coil sample geometries will be described: a probe that is only variable-temperature and a probe that is variable-temperature and variable-strain. The most significant challenge for these measurements is temperature stability, since large amounts of heat can be generated by the flow of high current through the resistive sample fixture. Therefore, a significant portion of this review is focused on the reduction of temperature errors to less than ±0.05 K in such measurements. A key feature of our system is a pre-regulator that converts a flow of liquid helium to gas and heats the gas to a temperature close to the target sample temperature. The pre-regulator is not in close proximity to the sample and it is controlled independently of the sample temperature. This allows us to independently control the total cooling power, and thereby fine tune the sample cooling power at any sample temperature. The same general temperature-control philosophy is used in all of our variable temperature systems, but the addition of another variable, such as strain, forces compromises in design and results in some differences in operation and protocol. These aspects are analyzed to assess the extent to which the protocols for our systems might be generalized to other systems at other laboratories. Our approach to variable-temperature measurements is also placed in the general context of measurement-system design, and the perceived advantages and disadvantages of design choices are presented. To verify the accuracy of the variable-temperature measurements, we compared critical-current values obtained on a specimen immersed in liquid helium (“liquid” or $I_{\text{c}}$ $_{\text{liq}}$) at 5 K to those measured on the same specimen in flowing helium gas (“gas” or Ic gas) at the same temperature. These comparisons indicate the temperature control is effective over the superconducting wire length between the voltage taps, and this condition is valid for all types of sample investigated, including Nb-Ti, Nb 3 Sn, and MgB 2 wires. The liquid/gas comparisons are used to study the variable-temperature measurement protocol that was necessary to obtain the “correct” critical current, which was assumed to be the $I_{\text{c}}$ $_{\text{liq}}$. We also calibrated the magnetoresistance effect of resistive thermometers for temperatures from 4 K to 35 K and magnetic fields from 0 T to 16 T. This calibration reduces systematic errors in the variable-temperature data, but it does not affect the liquid/gas comparison since the same thermometers are used in both cases.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS1999

Improving Reanalyses Using TRMM and SSM/I-Derived Precipitation and Total Precipitable Water Observations

Global reanalyses currently contain significant errors in the primary fields of the hydrological cycle such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and the related cloud fields, especially in the tropics. The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments to improve these fields in reanalyses. The DAO has developed a "1+1"D procedure to assimilate 6-hr averaged rainfall and TPW into the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS). The algorithm is based on a 6-hr time integration of a column version of the GEOS DAS. The "1+1" designation refers to one spatial dimension plus one temporal dimension. The scheme minimizes the least-square differences between the satellite-retrieved rain rates and those produced by the column model over the 6-hr analysis window. The control variables are analysis increments of moisture within the Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) framework of the GEOS DAS. This 1+1D scheme, in its generalization to four dimensions, is related to the standard 4D variational assimilation but differs in its choice of the control variable. Instead of estimating the initial condition at the beginning of the assimilation cycle, it estimates the constant IAU forcing applied over a 6-hr assimilation cycle. In doing so, it imposes the forecast model as a weak constraint in a manner similar to the variational continuous assimilation techniques. We present results from an experiment in which the observed rain rate and TPW are assumed to be "perfect". They show that assimilating the TMI and SSM/I-derived surface precipitation and TPW observations improves not only the precipitation and moisture fields but also key climate parameters directly linked to convective activities such as clouds, the outgoing longwave radiation, and the large-scale circulation in the tropics. In particular, assimilating these data types reduce the state-dependent systematic errors in the assimilated products. The improved analysis also leads to a better short-range forecast, but the impact is modest compared with improvements in the time-averaged fields. These results suggest that, in the presence of biases and other errors of the forecast model, it is possible to improve the time-averaged "climate content" in the assimilated data without comparable improvements in the short-range forecast skill. Results of this experiment provide a useful benchmark for evaluating error covariance models for optimal use of these data types.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Digitally Calibrated TR Modules Enabling Real-Time Beamforming SweepSAR Architectures

SweepSAR, a novel radar architecture that depends on a DBF (digital beamforming) array, requires calibration accuracies that are order(s) of magnitude greater than is possible with traditional techniques, such as a priori characterization of TR (transmit/receive) modules in thermal vacuum chambers, or simple loop-back of the calibration signal. The advantages of a SweepSAR architecture are so great that it is worth applying significant resources to calibration efforts. Due to the nature of the DBF, each channel contains a digitizer and very powerful digital processor. Each channel can independently digitize (with the digitizer) and analyze (with the processor) its channel's unique calibration signal, and extract the relevant calibration parameters, namely channel gain and channel phase delay commonly referred to as the gain (or amplitude) and phase of the channel. Using the processor, each channel's gain and phase can theoretically be estimated with arbitrary precision through averaging a sufficiently large number of samples. Systematic errors and the changing gain and phase of the channels, typically due to temperature drifts, limits how long the averaging can occur, which limits the precision of the calibration estimate. However, results indicate that calibration knowledge of both the transmit and receive chains of each TR module can be improved by one or two orders of magnitude. Due to the digital nature of the receiver data, the channel's gain and phase may be corrected by a similar amount, while the transmit chain can only be corrected in a traditional manner. To implement Sweep SAR, the order of magnitude improvement in the knowledge of the channel's gain and phase is needed, and the control of the receiver to a similar level is required. Inherent to the DBF array is the individual digitization of each of the array's receiver channels. Current systems typically combine all of the analog signals in the array into one or two analog channels, which are then digitized and processed. All signal conditioning performed prior to digitization is done using analog hardware (which is less precise than digital signal conditioning and dependent on temperature). The DBF digitizes every signal prior to combining, and can therefore analyze and correct received signals, as well as analyze signals that are being transmitted through analog hardware (by sampling a copy and digitizing). Each channel of a DBF also has a powerful processor. With this combination, one is able to digitize, analyze, and correct each channel prior to its being combined. A unique factor is the ability to digitize and analyze (in real time) each of the array's channels independently, allowing one to achieve unprecedented knowledge of each channel's performance (gain and phase), and since the combining is done digitally, each receive channel can be corrected prior to combining. This enables an unprecedented level of accuracy and control through onboard processing. SweepSAR promises significant increases in instrument capability for solid earth and biomass remote sensing, while reducing mission mass and cost. This new instrument concept requires new methods for calibrating the multiple channels, which must be combined onboard, in real time. New methods are being developed for digitally calibrating digital beam-forming arrays to reduce development time, risk, and cost of precision calibrated TR modules for array architectures by accurately tracking modules' characteristics through closed-loop digital calibration, thus tracking systematic changes regardless of temperature.-

Hoffman, James P.↗

DOE OSTI2015

Global patterns and controls of soil organic carbon dynamics as simulated by multiple terrestrial biosphere models. Current status and future directions

Soil is the largest organic carbon (C) pool of terrestrial ecosystems, and loss from soil accounts for a large pro portion of land-atmosphere C exchange. Due to large pool size and variable residence time from years to millennia, even small changes in soil organic C(SOC) have substantial effects on the terrestrial C budget, thereby affecting atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2)concentration and climate change. In the past decades, a wide variety of studies have been conducted to quantify global SOC stocks and soil exchange with the atmosphere through site measurements, inventories, and empirical/process-based modeling. However, these estimates are highly uncertain and identifying major driving forces controlling soil C storage and fluxes remains a key research challenge his study has compiled century-long (1901-2010)estimates of SOC storage and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) from ten terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) in the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP) and two observation based datasets. The ten-TBM ensemble shows that global SOC estimate range from 4 to 2111 Pg C (1 Pg = 10 15 g) with a median value of 1158 Pg C33 in 2010. Modeling approach estimates a broad range of Rh from 35 to 69 Pg C yr -1 with a median value of 51Pg C yr -1 during 200–2010. The largest uncertainty in SOC stocks exists in the 40–65°N latitude band while Rh differences are the largest in the tropics. All the models agreed that climate and land use changes have decreased SOC stocks while elevated CO 2 and atmospheric nitrogen deposition have increased SOC stocks though the response varied significantly among models. Model representations of temperature and moisture sensitivity,nutrient limitation and land use partially explain the divergent estimates of global SOC stocks and soil fluxes in this study. In addition, major sources of uncertainty from model estimation include exclusion of SOC storage in wetlands and peatlands as well as C storage in deep soil layers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

CMIP5 multi-model hindcasts for the mid-1970s shift and early 2000s hiatus and predictions for 2016-2035: Meehl and Teng: Initialized hindcasts and predictions

Compared to uninitialized climate change projections, a multi-model ensemble from the CMIP5 10 year decadal prediction experiments produces more warming during the mid-1970s climate shift and less warming in the early 2000s hiatus in both the tropical Indo-Pacific region and globally averaged surface air temperature (TAS) in closer agreement with observations. Assuming bias in TAS has stabilized in the 10 year predictions, after bias adjustment, TAS anomalies for the 2016–2035 period in the 30 year predictions initialized in 2006 are about 16% less than the uninitialized projections. One contributing factor for the improved climate simulation is the bias adjustment, which corrects the models’ systematic errors and higher-than-observed decadal warming trend. Another important factor is the initialization with observations which constrains the ocean such that the starting points of the initialized simulations are close to the observed initial states.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Trends and sensitivities of low streamflow extremes to discharge timing and magnitude in Pacific Northwest mountain streams

Abstract Path analyses of historical streamflow data from the Pacific Northwest indicate that the precipitation amount has been the dominant control on the magnitude of low streamflow extremes compared to the air temperature‐affected timing of snowmelt runoff. The relative sensitivities of low streamflow to precipitation and temperature changes have important implications for adaptation planning because global circulation models produce relatively robust estimates of air temperature changes but have large uncertainties in projected precipitation amounts in the Pacific Northwest U.S. Quantile regression analyses indicate that low streamflow extremes from the majority of catchments in this study have declined from 1948 to 2013, which may significantly affect terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and water resource management. Trends in the 25th percentile of mean annual streamflow have declined and the center of timing has occurred earlier. We quantify the relative influences of total precipitation and air temperature on the annual low streamflow extremes from 42 stream gauges using mean annual streamflow as a proxy for precipitation amount effects and streamflow center of timing as a proxy for temperature effects on low flow metrics, including 7q10 summer (the minimum 7 day flow during summer with a 10 year return period), mean August , mean September , mean summer , 7q10 winter , and mean winter flow metrics. These methods have the benefit of using only readily available streamflow data, which makes our results robust against systematic errors in high elevation distributed precipitation data. Winter low flow metrics are weakly tied to both mean annual streamflow and center of timing .

Kormos, Patrick R.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evidence of Free-Bound Transitions in Warm Dense Matter and Their Impact on Equation-of-State Measurements

Warm dense matter (WDM) is now routinely created and probed in laboratories around the world, providing unprecedented insights into conditions achieved in stellar atmospheres, planetary interiors, and inertial confinement fusion experiments. However, the interpretation of these experiments is often filtered through models with systematic errors that are difficult to quantify. Due to the simultaneous presence of quantum degeneracy and thermal excitation, transitions in which free electrons are de-excited into thermally unoccupied bound states transferring momentum and energy to a scattered x-ray photon become viable. Here we show that such free-bound transitions are a particular feature of WDM and vanish in the limits of cold and hot temperatures. The inclusion of these transitions into the analysis of recent X-ray Thomson Scattering experiments on WDM at the National Ignition Facility and the Linac Coherent Light Source is required to obtain a physically consistent temperature from the Chihara decomposition. This interpretation is corroborated by agreement with a recently developed model-free thermometry technique and presents an important step for precisely characterizing and understanding the complex WDM state of matter.

Boehme, M [HZDR Dresden]↗

DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of energy balance closure adjustment methods by independent evapotranspiration estimates from lysimeters and hydrological simulations

Here, we report non-closure of the surface energy balance is a frequently observed phenomenon of hydrometeorological field measurements, when using the eddy-covariance method, which can be ascribed to an underestimation of the turbulent fluxes. Several approaches have been proposed in order to adjust the measured fluxes for this apparent systematic error. However, there are uncertainties about partitioning of the energy balance residual between the sensible and latent heat flux and whether such a correction should be applied on 30-minute data or longer time scales. The data for this study originate from two grassland sites in southern Germany, where measurements from weighable lysimeters are available as reference. The adjusted evapotranspiration rates are also compared with joint energy and water balance simulations using a physically-based distributed hydrological model. We evaluate two adjustment methods: the first one preserves the Bowen ratio and the correction factor is determined on a daily basis. The second one attributes a smaller portion of the residual energy to the latent heat flux than to the sensible heat flux for closing the energy balance for every 30-minute flux integration interval. Both methods lead to an improved agreement of the eddy-covariance based fluxes with the independent lysimeter estimates and the physically-based model simulations. The first method results in a better comparability of evapotranspiration rates, and the second method leads to a smaller overall bias. These results are similar between both sites despite considerable differences in terrain complexity and grassland management. Moreover, we found that a daily adjustment factor leads to less scatter than a complete partitioning of the residual for every half-hour time interval. Lastly, the vertical temperature gradient in the surface layer and friction velocity were identified as important predictors for a potential future parameterization of the energy balance residual.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Nonperturbative β function of twelve-flavor SU(3) gauge theory

We study the discrete β function of SU(3) gauge theory with N f = 12 massless fermions in the fundamental representation. Using an nHYP-smeared staggered lattice action and an improved gradient flow running coupling g ~ c 2 ( L ) we determine the continuum-extrapolated discrete β function up to g c 2 ≈ 8.2. We observe an IR fixed point at g * 2 = 7.3( -2 + 8 ) in the c = 8 t / L = 0.25 scheme, and g * 2 = 7.3( -3 + 6 ) with c = 0.3, combining statistical and systematic uncertainties in quadrature. The systematic effects we investigate include the stability of the (a/L) → 0 extrapolations, the interpolation of g ~ c 2 ( L ) as a function of the bare coupling, the improvement of the gradient flow running coupling, and the discretization of the energy density. In an appendix we observe that the resulting systematic errors increase dramatically upon combining smaller c ≲ 0.2 with smaller L ≤ 12, leading to an IR fixed point at g * 2 = 5.9(1.9) in the c = 0.2 scheme, which resolves to g * 2 = 6.9( -1 + 6 ) upon considering only L ≥ 16. At the IR fixed point we measure the leading irrelevant critical exponent to be γ g * = 0.26(2), comparable to perturbative estimates.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bottomonium suppression and elliptic flow using Heavy Quarkonium Quantum Dynamics

We introduce a framework called Heavy Quarkonium Quantum Dynamics (HQQD) which can be used to compute the dynamical suppression of heavy quarkonia propagating in the quark-gluon plasma using real-time in-medium quantum evolution. Using HQQD we compute large sets of real-time solutions to the Schrödinger equation using a realistic in-medium complex-valued potential. We sample 2 million quarkonia wave packet trajectories and evolve them through the QGP using HQQD to obtain their survival probabilities. The computation is performed using three different HQQD model parameter sets in order to estimate our systematic uncertainty. After taking into account final state feed down we compare our results to existing experimental data for the suppression and elliptic flow of bottomonium states and find that HQQD predictions are good agreement with available data for R AA as a function of N part and p T collected at $ \sqrt{s_{\mathrm{NN}}} $ = 5 . 02 TeV. In the case of v 2 for the various states, we find that the path-length dependence of ϒ(1 s ) suppression results in quite small v 2 for ϒ(1 s ). Our prediction for the integrated elliptic flow for ϒ(1 s ) in the 10 – 90% centrality class, which now includes an estimate of the systematic error, is v 2 [ϒ(1 s )] = 0 . 003 ± 0 . 0007 ± $ {}_{0.0013}^{0.0006} $ . We also find that, due to their increased suppression, excited bottomonium states have a larger elliptic flow. Based on this observation we make predictions for v 2 [ϒ(2 s )] and v 2 [ϒ(3 s )] as a function of centrality and transverse momentum.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Non-singlet quark helicity $\mathrm{PDF}$s of the nucleon from pseudo-distributions

The non-singlet helicity quark parton distribution functions (PDFs) of the nucleon are determined from lattice QCD, by jointly leveraging pseudo-distributions and the distillation spatial smearing paradigm. A Lorentz decomposition of appropriately isolated space-like matrix elements reveals pseudo-distributions that contain information on the leading-twist helicity PDFs, as well as an invariant amplitude that induces an additional z 2 contamination of the leading-twist signal. An analysis of the short-distance behavior of the space-like matrix elements using matching coefficients computed to next-to-leading order (NLO) exposes the desired PDF up to this additional z 2 contamination. Due to the non-conservation of the axial current, we elect to isolate the helicity PDFs normalized by the nucleon axial charge at the same scale μ 2 . The leading-twist helicity PDFs as well as several sources of systematic error, including higher-twist effects, discretization errors, and the aforementioned z 2 contaminating amplitude are jointly determined by characterizing the computed pseudo-distribution in a basis of Jacobi polynomials. The Akaike Information Criterion is exploited to effectively average over distinct model parameterizations and cuts on the pseudo-distribution. Encouraging agreement is observed with recent global analyses of each non-singlet quark helicity PDF, notably a rather small non-singlet anti-quark helicity PDF for all quark momentum fractions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

A light scalar explanation of (g - 2) μ and the KOTO anomaly

The KOTO experiment has recently performed a search for neutral Kaons decaying into neutral pions and a pair of neutrinos. Three events were observed in the KOTO signal region, with an expected background of about 0.05. Since no clear signal of systematic errors have been found, the excess of events in the decay K-L → π 0 v$\overline{v}$ is quite intriguing. One possibility to explain this anomaly would be the presence of a scalar $\phi$ with mass of the order of the pion mass and inducing decays K-L → π 0 $\phi$ which mimic the observed signal. A scalar with mass of the order of the pion mass and a coupling to muons of the order of the Standard Model Higgs coupling could also explain the muon anomalous magnetic moment anomaly (g - 2) μ . We built on these facts to show that a light singlet scalar with couplings to the leptons and quarks as the ones induced by mixing with Higgs states in two Higgs doublet models may lead to an explanation of both anomalies. More specifically, we show that this is the case in the so-called type-X models in which leptons and quarks couple to two different Higgs doublets, and for scalar masses that are in the range between 40 and 70 MeV. Due to the relatively large coupling to leptons required to fit (g - 2) μ , the scalar lifetime accidentally falls into the sub-nanosecond range which is essential to evade the severe proton beam dump experiments and astrophysical constraints, though it becomes sensitive to constraints from electron beam dump experiments. The additional phenomenological properties of this model are discussed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Magnifying the ATLAS stealth stop splinter: impact of spin correlations and finite widths

In this paper, we recast a “stealth stop” search in the notoriously difficult region of the stop-neutralino Simplified Model parameter space for which m($\tilde{t}$ 1 )-m($\tilde{X}$~$0\atop{1}$)≃m t . The properties of the final state are nearly identical for tops and stops, while the rate for stop pair production is O(10%) of that for $t\overline{t}$. Stop searches away from this stealth region have left behind a “splinter” of open parameter space when m($\overline{t}$ 1 )≃m t . Removing this splinter requires surgical precision: the ATLAS constraint on stop pair production reinterpreted here treats the signal as a contaminant to the measurement of the top pair production cross section using data from s√=7 TeV and 8 TeV in a correlated way to control for some systematic errors. ATLAS fixed m($\tilde{t}$ 1 )≃mtandm($\tilde{X}$~$0\atop{1}$)=1 GeV, implying that a careful recasting of these results into the full m($\tilde{t}$ 1 )-m($\tilde{X}$~$0\atop{1}$) plane is warranted. We find that the parameter space with m($\tilde{X}$~$0\atop{1}$)≲55 GeV is excluded for m($\tilde{t}$ 1 )≃m t — although this search does cover new parameter space, it is unable to fully pull the splinter. Along the way, we review a variety of interesting physical issues in detail: (i) when the two-body width is a good approximation; (ii) how assuming the narrow width approximation affects the total rate; (iii ) how the production rate is affected when the wrong widths are used; (iv ) what role propagating the spin correlations consistently through the multi-body decay chain plays in the limits. In addition, we provide a guide to using MadGraph for implementing the full production including finite width and spin correlation effects, and we survey a variety of pitfalls one might encounter.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Supernova 1987A constraints on sub-GeV dark sectors, millicharged particles, the QCD axion, and an axion-like particle

Here, we consider the constraints from Supernova 1987A on particles with small couplings to the Standard Model. We discuss a model with a fermion coupled to a dark photon, with various mass relations in the dark sector; millicharged particles; dark-sector fermions with inelastic transitions; the hadronic QCD axion; and an axion-like particle that couples to Standard Model fermions with couplings proportional to their mass. In the fermion cases, we develop a new diagnostic for assessing when such a particle is trapped at large mixing angles. Our bounds for a fermion coupled to a dark photon constrain small couplings and masses ≲ 200 MeV, and do not decouple for low fermion masses. They exclude parameter space that is otherwise unconstrained by existing accelerator-based and direct-detection searches. In addition, our bounds are complementary to proposed laboratory searches for sub-GeV dark matter, and do not constrain several benchmark-model targets in parameter space for which the dark matter obtains the correct relic abundance from interactions with the Standard Model. For a millicharged particle, we exclude charges between 10 –9 –few×10 –6 in units of the electron charge, also for masses ≲ 200 MeV; this excludes parameter space to higher millicharges and masses than previous bounds. For the QCD axion and an axion-like particle, we apply several updated nuclear physics calculations and include the energy dependence of the optical depth to accurately account for energy loss at large couplings. These corrections allow us to rule out a hadronic axion of mass between 0.1 and a few hundred eV, or equivalently to put a bound on the scale of Peccei-Quinn symmetry breaking between a few×10 4 and 10 8 GeV, closing the hadronic axion window. For an axion-like particle, our bounds disfavor decay constants between a few×10 5 GeV up to a few×10 8 GeV, for a mass ≲ 200 MeV. In all cases, our bounds differ from previous work by more than an order of magnitude across the entire parameter space. We also provide estimated systematic errors due to the uncertainties of the progenitor.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Jet substructure from dark sector showers

We examine the robustness of collider phenomenology predictions for a dark sector scenario with QCD-like properties. Pair production of dark quarks at the LHC can result in a wide variety of signatures, depending on the details of the new physics model. A particularly challenging signal results when prompt production induces a parton shower that yields a high multiplicity of collimated dark hadrons with subsequent decays to Standard Model hadrons. The final states contain jets whose substructure encodes their non-QCD origin. This is a relatively subtle signature of strongly coupled beyond the Standard Model dynamics, and thus it is crucial that analyses incorporate systematic errors to account for the approximations that are being made when modeling the signal. We estimate theoretical uncertainties for a canonical substructure observable designed to be sensitive to the gauge structure of the underlying object, the two-point energy correlator $ {e}_2^{\left(\beta \right)} $ , by computing envelopes between resummed analytic distributions and numerical results from Pythia. We explore the separability against the QCD background as the confinement scale, number of colors, number of flavors, and dark quark masses are varied. Additionally, we investigate the uncertainties inherent to modeling dark sector hadronization. Simple estimates are provided that quantify one’s ability to distinguish these dark sector jets from the overwhelming QCD background. Such a search would benefit from theory advances to improve the predictions, and the increase in statistics using the data to be collected at the high luminosity LHC.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Kinematic focus point method for particle mass measurements in missing energy events

We investigate the solvability of the event kinematics in missing energy events at hadron colliders, as a function of the particle mass ansatz. To be specific, we reconstruct the neutrino momenta in dilepton tt¯-like events, without assuming any prior knowledge of the mass spectrum. We identify a class of events, which we call extreme events, with the property that the kinematic boundary of their allowed region in mass parameter space passes through the true mass point. We develop techniques for recognizing extreme events in the data and demonstrate that they are abundant in a realistic data sample, due to expected singularities in phase space. We propose a new method for mass measurement whereby we obtain the true values of the mass parameters as the focus point of the kinematic boundaries for all events in the data sample. Since the masses are determined from a relatively sharp peak structure (the density of kinematic boundary curves), the method avoids some of the systematic errors associated with other techniques. We show that this new approach is complementary to previously considered methods in the literature where one studies the solvability of the kinematic constraints throughout the mass parameter space. In particular, we identify a problematic direction in mass space of nearly 100% solvability, and then show that the focus point method is effective in lifting the degeneracy.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

The effects of bias, drift, and trends in calculating anomalies for evaluating skill of seasonal-to-decadal initialized climate predictions

In initialized seasonal to decadal (S2D) predictions, model hindcasts rapidly drift away from the initial observed state and converge toward a preferred state characterized by systematic error, or bias. Bias and drift are among the greatest challenges facing initialized prediction today. Differences in trends between initial states and drifted states, combined with bias and drift, introduce complexities in calculating anomalies to assess skill of initialized predictions. We examine several methods of calculating anomalies using the Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (DPLE) using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) initialized hindcasts and focus on Pacific and Atlantic SSTs to illustrate issues with anomaly calculations. Three methods of computing anomalies, one as differences from a long term model climatology, another as bias-adjusted differences from the previous 15 year average from observations, and a third as differences from the previous 15 year average from the model, are contrasted and each is shown to have limitations. For the first, trends in bias and drift introduce higher skill estimates earlier and later in the hindcast period due to the trends that contribute to skill. For the second, higher skill can be introduced in situations where low frequency variability in the observations is large compared to the hindcasts on timescales greater than 15 years, while lower skill can result if the predicted signal is small and the bias-correction itself produces a transition of SST anomalies to the opposite sign of those that are observed. The third method has somewhat lower skill compared to each of the others, but has less difficulties with not only the long term trends in the model climatology, but also with the unrealistic situational skill from using observations as a reference. However, the first 15 years of the hindcast period cannot be evaluated due to having to wait to accumulate the previous 15 year model climatology before the method can be applied. Here, the IPO transition in the 2014–2016 time frame from negative to positive (predicted by Meehl et al. in in Nat Commun, 10.1038/NCOMMS11718, 2016) did indeed verify using all three methods, though each provides somewhat different skill values as a result of the respective limitations. There is no clear best method, as all are roughly comparable, and each has its own set of limitations and caveats. However, all three methods show generally higher overall skill in the AMO region compared to the IPO region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2013

The Qweak: Precision measurement of the proton's weak charge by parity violating experiment

The Qweak experiment at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility measures the parity violating asymmetry in longitudinally polarized electron scattering from the proton at very low momentum transfer, Q{sup 2} = 0.026 (GeV/c){sup 2}, at an incident electron beam energy of 1.16 GeV. With this measurement and the earlier results of the parity violating elastic scattering experiments, the Qweak experiment determines the weak charge of the proton with a 4% combined statistical and systematic error. This measurement will be used to determine the weak mixing angle that is predicted by the Standard Model from the Z{sup 0} pole down to lower energies. Qweak will determine to a 0.3% relative precision, providing a competitive measurement of the running of this quantity. Moreover, if there is a significant deviation of the weak mixing angle from the Standard Model prediction, then the Qweak experiment will give a glimpse of possible extensions of the Standard Model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗