Modeling and analysis of an integrated solid state elastocaloric heat pumping system
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Energy & Fuels↗
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Results for “Systems Modeling”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Dynamic System Models for Informing Licensing and Safeguards Investigations of Molten Salt Reactors
Fluid-fueled molten salt nuclear reactors (MSRs) have recently gained significant interest. As with all reactors, modeling and simulation are key factors for advanced reactor design and licensing and will be required for the deployment of MSRs. However, there are significant gaps between simulation capabilities and system behavior for MSRs. This paper presents a system model of an MSR based on the Molten Salt Demonstration Reactor. The model includes important physics specific to MSRs, such as fission product and tritium transport, as well as reactivity feedback.
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
Description and evaluation of tropospheric chemistry and aerosols in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2)
The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), version 5, is now coupled to extensive tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, called CAM5-chem, and is available in addition to CAM4-chem in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.2. The main focus of this paper is to compare the performance of configurations with internally derived "free running" (FR) meteorology and "specified dynamics" (SD) against observations from surface, aircraft, and satellite, as well as understand the origin of the identified differences. We focus on the representation of aerosols and chemistry. All model configurations reproduce tropospheric ozone for most regions based on in situ and satellite observations. However, shortcomings exist in the representation of ozone precursors and aerosols. Tropospheric ozone in all model configurations agrees for the most part with ozonesondes and satellite observations in the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere within the variability of the observations. Southern hemispheric tropospheric ozone is consistently underestimated by up to 25%. Differences in convection and stratosphere to troposphere exchange processes are mostly responsible for differences in ozone in the different model configurations. Carbon monoxide (CO) and other volatile organic compounds are largely underestimated in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes based on satellite and aircraft observations. Nitrogen oxides (NO x ) are biased low in the free tropical troposphere, whereas peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) is overestimated in particular in high northern latitudes. The present-day methane lifetime estimates are compared among the different model configurations. These range between 7.8 years in the SD configuration of CAM5-chem and 8.8 years in the FR configuration of CAM4-chem and are therefore underestimated compared to observational estimations. We find that differences in tropospheric aerosol surface area between CAM4 and CAM5 play an important role in controlling the burden of the tropical tropospheric hydroxyl radical (OH), which causes differences in tropical methane lifetime of about half a year between CAM4-chem and CAM5-chem. In addition, different distributions of NO x from lightning explain about half of the difference between SD and FR model versions in both CAM4-chem and CAM5-chem. Remaining differences in the tropical OH burden are due to enhanced tropical ozone burden in SD configurations compared to the FR versions, which are not only caused by differences in chemical production or loss but also by transport and mixing. For future studies, we recommend the use of CAM5-chem configurations, due to improved aerosol description and inclusion of aerosol–cloud interactions. However, smaller tropospheric surface area density in the current version of CAM5-chem compared to CAM4-chem results in larger oxidizing capacity in the troposphere and therefore a shorter methane lifetime.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
The impact of shale gas on the cost and feasibility of meeting climate targets—A global energy system model analysis and an exploration of uncertainties
There exists considerable uncertainty over both shale and conventional gas resource availability and extraction costs, as well as the fugitive methane emissions associated with shale gas extraction and its possible role in mitigating climate change. This study uses a multi-region energy system model, TIAM (TIMES integrated assessment model), to consider the impact of a range of conventional and shale gas cost and availability assessments on mitigation scenarios aimed at achieving a limit to global warming of below 2 °C in 2100, with a 50% likelihood. When adding shale gas to the global energy mix, the reduction to the global energy system cost is relatively small (up to 0.4%), and the mitigation cost increases by 1%–3% under all cost assumptions. The impact of a “dash for shale gas”, of unavailability of carbon capture and storage, of increased barriers to investment in low carbon technologies, and of higher than expected leakage rates, are also considered; and are each found to have the potential to increase the cost and reduce feasibility of meeting global temperature goals. Finally, we conclude that the extraction of shale gas is not likely to significantly reduce the effort required to mitigate climate change under globally coordinated action, but could increase required mitigation effort if not handled sufficiently carefully.
energy economics↗
Investigating the Direct Meltwater Effect in Terrestrial Oxygen-Isotope Paleoclimate Records Using an Isotope-Enabled Earth System Model
Variations in terrestrial oxygen-isotope reconstructions from ice cores and speleothems have been primarily attributed to climatic changes of surface air temperature, precipitation amount, or atmospheric circulation. In this work, we demonstrate with the fully coupled isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model an additional process contributing to the oxygen-isotope variations during glacial meltwater events. This process, termed “the direct meltwater effect,” involves propagating large amounts of isotopically depleted meltwater throughout the hydrological cycle and is independent of climatic changes. We find that the direct meltwater effect can make up 15–35% of the δ 18 O signals in precipitation over Greenland and eastern Brazil for large freshwater forcings (0.25–0.50 sverdrup (10 6 m 3 /s)). Model simulations further demonstrate that the direct meltwater effect increases with the magnitude and duration of the freshwater forcing and is sensitive to both the location and shape of the meltwater. These new modeling results have important implications for past climate interpretations of δ 18 O.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
How Well do Earth System Models Capture Apparent Relationships Between Phytoplankton Biomass and Environmental Variables?
Abstract As phytoplankton form the base of the marine food web, understanding the controls on their abundance is fundamental to understanding marine ecology and its sensitivity to global climate change. While many Earth System Models (ESMs) predict phytoplankton biomass, it is unclear whether they properly capture the mechanistic relationships that control this quantity in the real ocean. We used Random Forest analysis to analyze the output of 13 ESMs as well as two observational data sets. The target variable was phytoplankton carbon and the predictors included environmental parameters known to influence phytoplankton, including nutrients, light, mixed layer depth, salinity, temperature, and upwelling. We examined the following: (a) What fractions of variability in ESMs and observations can be linked to the large‐scale environmental variables simulated by ESMs? (b) What are the dominant predictors and relationships affecting phytoplankton biomass? (c) How well do ESMs simulate phytoplankton carbon and do they simulate the relationships we see in observations? About 88%–96% of the variability in observational data sets and greater than 98% in the ESMs was accounted for by environmental variables known to influence phytoplankton biomass. The dominant predictors in the observational data sets were shortwave radiation and dissolved iron, with temperature and ammonium also relatively important. All the ESMs show that shortwave radiation is the most important variable and most of them predict the right sign of sensitivity to most variables. However, the models predict that biomass reaches maximum levels at unrealistically low levels of iron and unrealistically high levels of light.
Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
Investigation of high frequency oscillations in the OV102 elevon actuation subsystems using continuous system modeling program simulation
Two theories emerged as the cause of undesired oscillations at frequencies between 40 and 60 Hz in the Orbiter Vehicle inboard and outboard elevon actuation subsystems during hardware testing. Both the "hardover feedback" and "deadspace" theories were examined using continuous system modeling program simulation. Results did not support the "hardover feedback" theory but showed that deadspace in the torque feedback spring connections to the servospools must be considered to be a possible cause of the oscillations. Further investigation is recommended.
Powell, W. W., Sr.↗
Next Generation Agricultural System Models and Knowledge Products: Synthesis and Strategy
The purpose of this Special Issue of Agricultural Systems is to lay the foundation for the next generation of agricultural systems data, models and knowledge products. In the Introduction to this Special Issue, we described a vision for accelerating the rate of agricultural innovation and meeting the growing global need for food and fiber. In this concluding article of the NextGen Special Issue we synthesize insights and formulate a strategy to advance data, models, and knowledge products that are consistent with this vision. This strategy is designed to facilitate a transition from the current, primarily supply-driven approach toward a more demand-driven approach that would address key Use Cases where better data, models and knowledge products are seen by end-users as essential to meet their needs.
Next generation↗
The relative importance of wind and hydroclimate drivers in modulating the interannual variability of dust emissions in Earth system models
Windblown dust emissions are controlled by near-surface wind speed and sediment erodibility, the latter modulated by hydroclimate and land-use conditions. Accurate representations of these drivers are critical for reproducing historical dust variability and projecting future dust changes in Earth system models (ESMs). This study examines the discrepancies among 21 ESMs in the relative importance of wind speed versus five hydroclimate drivers in explaining the historical (1980–2014) variability of dust emissions from global drylands. In hyperarid areas, models show poor agreement in the simulated dust variability, with only 9 % out of 210 inter-model comparisons exhibiting significant positive correlations. In contrast, arid and semiarid areas exhibit a dual pattern driven by a “double-edged sword” effect of land surface memory: models with coherent hydroclimate variability show better agreement, whereas those with divergent hydroclimate representations show larger disagreement. While the ESMs capture the dominant role of wind speed in hyperarid areas, they diverge markedly in the relative contributions of wind and hydroclimate drivers in arid and semiarid areas. Replacing the Zender et al. (2003) dust scheme with the Kok et al. (2014) scheme in CESM and E3SM generally strengthens hydroclimate influences while reducing wind speed contributions to simulated dust variability. MERRA-2 reanalysis produces stronger wind influences than most ESMs across all dryland regions. These results underscore the need for improved near-surface wind simulations in hyperarid areas and more realistic land surface and hydroclimate representations in arid and semiarid areas to reduce uncertainties in global dust emission simulations.
Li, Xinzhu [Michigan Technological University, Hou↗
Climate Science: How Earth System Models are Reshaping the Science Policy Interface.
This talk is oriented at a general audience including the largest French utility company, and will describe the basics of climate change before moving into emissions scenarios and agricultural impacts that we can test with our earth system models and impacts models.
agriculture↗
Ocean Barrier Layers in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model
Ocean barrier layers (BLs) separate the mixed layer from the top of the thermocline and are able to insulate the mixed layer from entrainment of cold thermocline water. In this work, we provide the first global BL assessment in E3SMv1 and two other Earth system models. Compared to observations, models reproduce the global distributions as semipermanent features in some tropical regions and seasonal features elsewhere. Yet, model BLs are generally too thin in tropical regions and too thick in higher latitudes. BLs' ability to insulate the ocean surface from entrainment of cold thermocline water is most apparent in the tropics. Along these lines, E3SMv1s BL thickness biases most affect entrainment here. Tropical BLT biases appear driven by atmosphere biases, mainly through the effect of precipitation minus evaporation on mixed layer depth. At higher latitudes BL thickness biases are dominated by thermocline depth errors related to ocean circulation and vertical mixing.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Interactive Photochemistry in Earth System Models to Assess Uncertainty in Ozone and Greenhouse Gases. Final report
Atmospheric chemistry controls the abundances and hence climate forcing of important greenhouse gases including N 2 O, CH 4 , HFCs, CFCs, and O 3 . Attributing climate change to human activities requires, at a minimum, accurate models of the chemistry and circulation of the atmosphere that relate emissions to abundances. This DOE-funded research provided realistic, yet computationally optimized and affordable, photochemical modules to the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that augment the CESM capability to explore the uncertainty in future stratospheric-tropospheric ozone, stratospheric circulation, and thus the lifetimes of chemically controlled greenhouse gases from climate simulations. To this end, we have successfully implemented Fast-J (radiation algorithm determining key chemical photolysis rates) and Linoz v3.0 (linearized photochemistry for interactive O 3 , N 2 O, NO y and CH 4 ) packages in LLNL-CESM and for the first time demonstrated how change in O2 photolysis rate within its uncertainty range can significantly impact on the stratospheric climate and ozone abundances. From the UCI side, this proposal also helped LLNL develop a CAM-Superfast Chemistry model that was implemented for the IPCC AR5 and contributed chemical-climate simulations to CMIP5.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Workshop on Human Activity at Scale in Earth System Models
Changing human activity within a geographical location may have significant influence on the global climate, but that activity must be parameterized in such a way as to allow these high-resolution sub-grid processes to affect global climate within that modeling framework. Additionally, we must have tools that provide decision support and inform local and regional policies regarding mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. The development of next-generation earth system models, that can produce actionable results with minimum uncertainties, depends on understanding global climate change and human activity interactions at policy implementation scales. Unfortunately, at best we currently have only limited schemes for relating high-resolution sectoral emissions to real-time weather, ultimately to become part of larger regions and well-mixed atmosphere. Moreover, even our understanding of meteorological processes at these scales is imperfect. This workshop addresses these shortcomings by providing a forum for discussion of what we know about these processes, what we can model, where we have gaps in these areas and how we can rise to the challenge to fill these gaps.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Model systems for life processes on Mars
In the evolution of life forms nonphotosynthetic mechanisms are developed. The question remains whether a total life system could evolve which is not dependent upon photosynthesis. In trying to visualize life on other planets, the photosynthetic process has problems. On Mars, the high intensity of light at the surface is a concern and alternative mechanisms need to be defined and analyzed. In the UV search for alternate mechanisms, several different areas may be identified. These involve activated inorganic compounds in the atmosphere, such as the products of photodissociation of carbon dioxide and the organic material which may be created by natural phenomena. In addition, a life system based on the pressure of the atmospheric constituents, such as carbon dioxide, is a possibility. These considerations may be important for the understanding of evolutionary processes of life on another planet. Model systems which depend on these alternative mechanisms are defined and related to presently planned and future planetary missions.
Mitz, M. A.↗
Large-scale maps of variable infection efficiencies in aquatic Bacteroidetes phage-host model systems: Variable phage-host infection interactions
Microbes drive ecosystem functioning and their viruses modulate these impacts through mortality, gene transfer and metabolic reprogramming. Despite the importance of virus-host interactions and likely variable infection efficiencies of individual phages across hosts, such variability is seldom quantified. In this paper, we quantify infection efficiencies of 38 phages against 19 host strains in aquatic Cellulophaga (Bacteroidetes) phage-host model systems. Binary data revealed that some phages infected only one strain while others infected 17, whereas quantitative data revealed that efficiency of infection could vary 10 orders of magnitude, even among phages within one population. This provides a baseline for understanding and modeling intrapopulation host range variation. Genera specific host ranges were also informative. For example, the Cellulophaga Microviridae, showed a markedly broader intra-species host range than previously observed in Escherichia coli systems. Further, one phage genus, Cba41, was examined to investigate nonheritable changes in plating efficiency and burst size that depended on which host strain it most recently infected. While consistent with host modification of phage DNA, no differences in nucleotide sequence or DNA modifications were detected, leaving the observation repeatable, but the mechanism unresolved. Overall, this study highlights the importance of quantitatively considering replication variations in studies of phage-host interactions.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Evaluating long-term emission impacts of large-scale electric vehicle deployment in the US using a human-Earth systems model
While large-scale adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) globally would reduce carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and traditional air pollutant emissions from the transportation sector, emissions from the electric sector, refineries, and potentially other sources would change in response. Here, a multi-sector human-Earth systems model is used to evaluate the net long-term emission implications of large-scale EV adoption in the US over widely differing pathways of the evolution of the electric sector. Our results indicate that high EV adoption would decrease net CO 2 emissions through 2050, even for a scenario where all electric sector capacity additions through 2050 are fossil fuel technologies. Greater net CO 2 reductions would be realized for scenarios that emphasize renewables or decarbonization of electricity production. Net air pollutant emission changes in 2050 are relatively small compared to expected overall decreases from recent levels to 2050. States participating in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative experience greater CO 2 and air pollutant reductions on a percentage basis. These results suggest that coordinated, multi-sector planning can greatly enhance the climate and environmental benefits of EVs. Additional factors are identified that influence the net emission impacts of EVs, including the retirement of coal capacity, refinery operations under reduced gasoline demands, and price-induced fuel switching in residential heating and in the industrial sector.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Global Climate Impacts of Fixing the Southern Ocean Shortwave Radiation Bias in the Community Earth System Model (CESM)
Here, a large, long-standing, and pervasive climate model bias is excessive absorbed shortwave radiation (ASR) over the midlatitude oceans, especially the Southern Ocean. This study investigates both the underlying mechanisms for and climate impacts of this bias within the Community Earth System Model, version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 [CESM1(CAM5)]. Excessive Southern Ocean ASR in CESM1(CAM5) results in part because low-level clouds contain insufficient amounts of supercooled liquid. In a present-day atmosphere-only run, an observationally motivated modification to the shallow convection detrainment increases supercooled cloud liquid, brightens low-level clouds, and substantially reduces the Southern Ocean ASR bias. Tuning to maintain global energy balance enables reduction of a compensating tropical ASR bias. In the resulting preindustrial fully coupled run with a brighter Southern Ocean and dimmer tropics, the Southern Ocean cools and the tropics warm. As a result of the enhanced meridional temperature gradient, poleward heat transport increases in both hemispheres (especially the Southern Hemisphere), and the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric jet strengthens. Because northward cross-equatorial heat transport reductions occur primarily in the ocean (80%), not the atmosphere (20%), a proposed atmospheric teleconnection linking Southern Ocean ASR bias reduction and cooling with northward shifts in tropical precipitation has little impact. In summary, observationally motivated supercooled liquid water increases in shallow convective clouds enable large reductions in long-standing climate model shortwave radiation biases. Of relevance to both model bias reduction and climate dynamics, quantifying the influence of Southern Ocean cooling on tropical precipitation requires a model with dynamic ocean heat transport.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
ISSM: Ice Sheet System Model
In order to have the capability to use satellite data from its own missions to inform future sea-level rise projections, JPL needed a full-fledged ice-sheet/iceshelf flow model, capable of modeling the mass balance of Antarctica and Greenland into the near future. ISSM was developed with such a goal in mind, as a massively parallelized, multi-purpose finite-element framework dedicated to ice-sheet modeling. ISSM features unstructured meshes (Tria in 2D, and Penta in 3D) along with corresponding finite elements for both types of meshes. Each finite element can carry out diagnostic, prognostic, transient, thermal 3D, surface, and bed slope simulations. Anisotropic meshing enables adaptation of meshes to a certain metric, and the 2D Shelfy-Stream, 3D Blatter/Pattyn, and 3D Full-Stokes formulations capture the bulk of the ice-flow physics. These elements can be coupled together, based on the Arlequin method, so that on a large scale model such as Antarctica, each type of finite element is used in the most efficient manner. For each finite element referenced above, ISSM implements an adjoint. This adjoint can be used to carry out model inversions of unknown model parameters, typically ice rheology and basal drag at the ice/bedrock interface, using a metric such as the observed InSAR surface velocity. This data assimilation capability is crucial to allow spinning up of ice flow models using available satellite data. ISSM relies on the PETSc library for its vectors, matrices, and solvers. This allows ISSM to run efficiently on any parallel platform, whether shared or distrib- ISSM: Ice Sheet System Model NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California uted. It can run on the largest clusters, and is fully scalable. This allows ISSM to tackle models the size of continents. ISSM is embedded into MATLAB and Python, both open scientific platforms. This improves its outreach within the science community. It is entirely written in C/C++, which gives it flexibility in its design, and the power/speed that C/C++ allows. ISSM is svn (subversion) hosted, on a JPL repository, to facilitate its development and maintenance. ISSM can also model propagation of rifts using contact mechanics and mesh splitting, and can interface to the Dakota software. To carry out sensitivity analysis, mesh partitioning algorithms are available, based on the Scotch, Chaco, and Metis partitioners that ensure equal area mesh partitions can be done, which are then usable for sampling and local reliability methods.
Larour, Eric↗