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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI1994

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 35, No. 2, July-December 1994]

Nuclear Safety is a journal that covers significant issues in the field of nuclear safety. Its primary scope is safety in the design, construction, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power reactors worldwide and the research and analysis activities that promote this goal, but it also encompasses the safety aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing and handling, and nuclear waste disposal, the handling of fissionable materials and radioisotopes, and the environmental effects of all these activities. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 179 Consideration of Postaccident Consequences in the Determination of Safety Objectives for Future Nuclear Power Plants in France, D. Queniart, A. Sugier, and J. Lochard; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 187 Nuclear Safety Research: The Phebus FP Severe Accident Experimental Program, P. von der Hardt, A. V. Jones, C. Lecomte, and A. Tattegrain; 205 Containment Performance Analysis of the Advanced Neutron Source Reactor at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, S. H. Kim, R. P. Taleyarkhan, and V. Georgevich; 213 Assessment of Fission Product Deposits in the Reactor Coolant System: The DEVAP Program, G. Le Marois and M. Megnin; 222 Erratum to “A Review of the Available Information on the Triggering Stage of a Steam Explosion," Vol. 35, No. 1, CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 223 Effects of Normal Aging on Calibration and Response Time of Nuclear Plant Resistance Temperature Detectors and Pressure Sensors, H. M. Hashemian; DESIGN FEATURES: 235 Defense in Depth Against the Hydrogen Risk—A European Research Program, F. Fineschi; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 246 Technical Note: A Preliminary Analysis of the Risks to Hong Kong Resulting from Potential Accidents of Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant, Z. Shi and X. Wei; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 253 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher; SPECIAL SECTION ON TMI-2 VESSEL INVESTIGATION PROJECT: 256 Three Mile Island—New Findings 15 Years After the Accident A. M. Rubin and E. Beckjord; 269 Relocation of Molten Material to the TMI-2 Lower Head, J. R. Wolf, D. W. Akers, and L. A. Neimark; 280 Insight Into the TMI-2 Core Material Relocation Through Examination of Instrument Tube Nozzles, L. A. Neimark; 288 Physical and Radiochemical Examinations of Debris from the TMI-2 Lower Head, D. W. Akers and B. K. Schuetz; 301 Results of Metallographic Examinations and Mechanical Tests of Pressure Vessel Samples from the TMI-2 Lower Head, D. R. Diercks and G. E. Korth; 313 Margin-to-Failure Calculations for the TMI-2 Vessel, J. Rempe, L. Stickler, S. Chavez, G. Thinnes, R. Witt, and M. Corradini; U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION INFORMATION AND ANALYSES: 328 1993 Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) Program Results, L. N. Vanden Heuvel, J. W. Cletcher, D. A. Copinger, J. W. Minarick, B. W. Dolan, and P. D. O’Reilley; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 339 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 345 Proposed Rule Changes as of June 30, 1994; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 234 Thirty-First Annual Meeting of the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements; 356 1995 International Incineration Conference; 358 Fifth International Controls and Instrumentation Conference; 359 ANS International Topical Meeting on Safety of Operating Reactors; 359 Fifth International Conference on Nuclear Criticality Safety; 360 International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment Methodology and Applications; 351 The Authors; 357 Reviewers of Nuclear Safety, Vol. 35.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robust Spectral Anomaly Detection in EELS Spectral Images via 3D Convolutional Variational Autoencoders

Abstract A 3D Convolutional Variational Autoencoder (3D‐CVAE) is introduced for automated anomaly detection in electron energy‐loss spectroscopy spectrum imaging (EELS‐SI) data. This approach leverages the full 3D structure of EELS‐SI data to detect subtle spectral anomalies while preserving both spatial and spectral correlations across the datacube. By employing cross‐entropy loss and training on bulk spectra, the model learns to reconstruct bulk features characteristic of the defect‐free material. In exploring methods for anomaly detection, both the 3D‐CVAE approach and principal component analysis (PCA) are evaluated, testing their performance using FeL‐edge ΔEpeak shifts designed to simulate material defects. These results show that 3D‐CVAE achieves superior anomaly detection and maintains consistent performance across various shift magnitudes. The method demonstrates clear bimodal separation between bulk and anomalous spectra, enabling reliable classification. Further analysis verifies that lower‐dimensional representations are robust to anomalies in the data. While performance advantages over PCA diminish with decreasing anomaly concentration, our method maintains high reconstruction quality even in challenging, noise‐dominated spectral regions. This approach provides a robust framework for unsupervised automated detection of spectral anomalies in EELS‐SI data, particularly valuable for analyzing complex material systems.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reversible Ferroelectric Polarization Modulation of Chiral Molecular Ferroelectrics by Circularly Polarized Light

Abstract The optical modulation of ferroelectric polarization constitutes a transformative, non‐contact strategy for the precise manipulation of ferroelectric properties, heralding advancements in optically stimulated ferroelectric devices. Despite its potential, progress in this domain is constrained by material limitations and the intricate nature of the underlying mechanisms. Recent studies have achieved efficient regulation of ferroelectric polarization and thermal conductivity in chiral ferroelectric thin films through the application of left‐ and right‐handed circularly polarized light (LCP and RCP). Differential absorption of circularly polarized light (CPL) induces nonequilibrium carrier dynamics, generating distinctive interfacial electrostatic fields that enable precise control of ultrathin ferroelectric films. For (R)‐BINOL−DIPASi and (S)‐BINOL−DIPASi (C 26 H 26 O 2 Si), polarization changes surpass 23%, exhibiting opposite response under LCP and RCP excitation. In R chiral films, remnant polarization decreases from 1.05 µC cm − 2 under LCP to 0.85 µC cm − 2 under RCP, whereas in S chiral films, polarization increases from 0.85 µC cm − 2 under LCP to 0.98 µC cm − 2 under RCP. This reversible modulation facilitates reliable switching between ON and OFF states, presenting the potential of chiral ferroelectric materials for flexible, high‐speed integrated photonic sensor technologies.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Physical thickness characterization of the FRIB production targets

The FRIB heavy-ion accelerator, commissioned in 2022, is a leading facility for producing rare isotope beams (RIBs) and exploring nuclei beyond the limits of stability. These RIBs are produced via reactions between stable primary beams and a graphite target. Approximately 20–40% of the primary beam power is deposited in the target, requiring efficient thermal dissipation. Currently, FRIB operates with a primary beam power of up to 20 kW. To enhance thermal dissipation efficiency, a single-slice rotating graphite target with a diameter of approximately 30 cm is employed. The effective target region is a 1 cm-wide outer rim of the graphite disc. To achieve high RIB production rates, the areal thickness variation must be constrained within 2%. This paper presents physical thickness characterizations of FRIB production targets with various nominal thicknesses, measured using a custom-built non-contact thickness measurement apparatus.

Instrumentation for radioactive beams (fragmentati↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimizing Deep Geothermal Drilling for Energy Sustainability in the Appalachian Basin

This study investigates the geological and geomechanical characteristics of the MIP 1S geothermal well in the Appalachian Basin to optimize drilling and address the wellbore stability issues encountered. Data from well logs, sidewall core analysis, and injection tests were used to derive elastic and rock strength properties, as well as stress and pore pressure profiles. A robust 1D-geomechanical model was developed and validated, correlating strongly with wellbore instability observations. This revealed significant wellbore breakout, widening the diameter from 12 ¼ inches to over 16 inches. Advanced technologies like Cerebro Force™ In-Bit Sensing were used to monitor drilling performance with high accuracy. This technology tracks critical metrics such as bit acceleration, vibration in the x, y, and z directions, Gyro RPM, stick-slip indicators, and bending on the bit. Cerebro Force™ readings identified hole drag caused by poor hole conditions, including friction between the drill string and wellbore walls and the presence of cuttings or debris. This led to higher torque and weight on bit (WOB) readings at the surface compared to downhole measurements, affecting drilling efficiency and wellbore stability. Optimal drilling parameters for future deep geothermal wells were determined based on these findings.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Overview of Electric Vehicle Load Modeling Strategies for Grid Integration Studies

The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) has emerged as a solution to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector, which has motivated the implementation of public policies to promote their use in several countries. However, the high adoption of EVs poses challenges for the electricity sector, as it would imply an increase in energy demand and possible impacts on the power quality (PQ) of the power grid. Therefore, it is important to conduct EV integration studies in the power grid to determine the amount that can be incorporated without causing problems and identify the areas of the power sector that will require reinforcements. Accurate EV load patterns are required for this type of study that, through mathematical modeling, reflect both the dynamic behavior and the factors that influence the decision to recharge EVs. This article aims to present an overview of EVs, examine the different factors considered in the literature for modeling EV load patterns, and review modeling methods. EV load modeling methods are classified into deterministic, statistical, and machine learning. The article shows that each modeling method has its advantages, disadvantages, and data requirements, ranging from simple load modeling to more accurate models requiring large datasets.

Computer Science↗
DOE OSTI2025

Design Strategies Based on Electronic Interactions for Effective Catalysts in Lithium–Sulfur Batteries

Abstract Lithium–sulfur batteries (LSBs) are considered promising next‐generation batteries due to their high energy density (>500 W h kg −1 ). However, LSBs exhibit an unsatisfactory energy density (<400 W h kg −1 ) and cycle life (<300 cycles) because of the shuttle effect caused by soluble lithium polysulfide (LiPS) intermediates and the sluggish conversion reaction kinetics caused by insulating sulfur (S 8 ) and lithium sulfide (Li 2 S). Although various types of catalysts, including metal‐based compounds to single‐atom catalysts, have been reported to address these issues, most catalysts exhibited limited catalytic activity under practical lean electrolyte conditions (<5 µL mg −1 ). A comprehensive understanding of the synthetic strategy and catalytic mechanism of catalysts is essential for their design, but understanding the electronic effects of the catalysts and LiPS is more important. Furthermore, the electronic design of these catalysts is not well understood. In this review, we introduce the catalytic mechanisms in LSBs and discuss catalyst design strategies in terms of electronic effects on the interactions between reactants and catalysts, with a primary focus on heterogeneous catalytic systems. We additionally consider how the electronic property of homogeneous systems, particularly redox mediators, affects catalytic behavior under lean electrolyte conditions and propose future research directions for catalyst development in LSBs.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Defect-induced displacement of topological surface state in quantum magnet MnBi2Te4

The topological magnet MnBi2⁢Te4 (MBT), with gapped topological surface state, is an attractive platform for realizing quantum anomalous Hall and axion insulator states. However, the experimentally observed surface state gaps fail to meet theoretical predictions, although the exact mechanism behind the gap suppression has been debated. Recent theoretical studies suggest that intrinsic antisite defects push the topological surface state away from the MBT surface, closing its gap and making it less accessible to scanning probe experiments. Here, we report on the local effect of defects on the MBT surface states and demonstrate that high defect concentrations lead to a displacement of the surface states well into the MBT crystal, validating the theorized mechanism. The local and global influence of antisite defects on the topological surface states are studied with samples of varying defect densities by combining scanning tunneling microscopy, angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy, and density functional theory. Our findings identify a combination of increased defect density and reduced defect spacing as the primary factors underlying the displacement of the surface states and suppression of surface gap, guiding further development of topological quantum materials.

Lupke, Felix [Carnegie Mellon University (CMU)]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Anomalous superconductivity in twisted MoTe 2 nanojunctions

Introducing superconductivity in topological materials can lead to innovative electronic phases and device functionalities. Here, we present a unique strategy for quantum engineering of superconducting junctions in moiré materials through direct, on-chip, and fully encapsulated 2D crystal growth. We achieve robust and designable superconductivity in Pd-metalized twisted bilayer molybdenum ditelluride (MoTe 2 ) and observe anomalous superconducting effects in high-quality junctions across ~20 moiré cells. Unexpectedly, the junction develops enhanced, instead of weakened, superconducting behaviors, exhibiting fluctuations to a higher critical magnetic field compared to its adjacent Pd 7 MoTe 2 superconductor. In addition, the critical current further exhibits a notable V-shaped minimum at zero magnetic field. These features are unexpected in conventional Josephson junctions and absent in junctions of natural bilayer MoTe 2 created using the same approach. We discuss implications of these observations, including the possible formation of mixed even- and odd-parity superconductivity at the moiré junctions. Our results also demonstrate a pathway to engineer and investigate superconductivity in fractional Chern insulators.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical low Pt-loading “core-shell” electrocatalysts for the oxygen reduction reaction in fuel cells

The sluggish kinetics of the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) hinder cost-effective polymer electrolyte fuel cells (PEFCs), which rely on scarce, expensive platinum-based electrocatalysts (ECs). Here, we present a novel synthesis method for ORR ECs achieving exceptional platinum utilization. The design features a hierarchical “multi-carbon” support comprising carbon nanoparticles interacting with graphene nanoplatelets as the “core”, encapsulated by a porous carbon nitride (CN) “shell”. This configuration promotes strong core/shell interactions and a bimodal active site distribution, consisting of chemically dispersed Pt and Ni single-atom complexes and PtNix alloy nanoclusters embedded in the CN shell. These advantages enable high activity and durability, achieving an ORR activity of 1.6 A mgPt−1 at 0.9 V vs. RHE-an order of magnitude higher than Pt/C (0.17 A mgPt−1). A proof-of-concept PEFC demonstrates a specific power of 12.0 kW gPt−1 at 0.60 V. This approach offers a significant step toward more efficient and sustainable PEFC technologies.

Pagot, Gioele [University of Padova, Italy]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robust Biaxial Anisotropy and Switchable Néel Vectors in LaFeO 3 Epitaxial Films

Antiferromagnets with highly stable but switchable Néel vectors are desired for antiferromagnetic spintronics with ultrafast speed and terahertz frequencies. Electrical switching of antiferromagnetic insulators has been demonstrated using binary antiferromagnets, while large families of complex antiferromagnets such as perovskites are largely unexplored. Here, we show that epitaxial LaFeO 3 thin films on SrTiO 3 (001) exhibit clear, robust biaxial anisotropy with a spin-flop field of a few tesla. Angular-dependent spin-Hall magnetoresistance (SMR) characterizations of Pt/LaFeO 3 bilayers with the current channel along SrTiO 3 [100] and [110] reveal distinct, intriguing shapes and field dependence. Simulations using a macrospin model accurately describe the main behavior and fine features of the SMR data from which key antiferromagnetic parameters are extracted. Furthermore, remanent SMR measurement confirms the high fidelity of the Néel vector along either easy axis of the biaxial anisotropy, indicating that epitaxial films of LaFeO 3 and potentially other perovskite antiferromagnets offer an attractive platform for antiferromagnetic spintronics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mechanistic origin of solvent-dependent thermal stability in sodiated Sn anodes for sodium-ion batteries

Understanding the thermal stability of high-energy density alloy anodes is critical for the safe deployment of sodium-ion batteries (SIBs). Here, accelerating rate calorimetry (ARC), post-mortem characterizations, and density functional theory (DFT) calculations are combined to understand the thermal reactivity of fully sodiated Sn, Sn-hard carbon (HC) blends, and HC anodes in carbonate- and ether-based electrolytes. ARC measurements show that propylene carbonate (PC) causes earlier self-heating rate (SHR) onset and higher reactivity than tetraethylene glycol dimethyl ether (TEGDME), indicating inferior thermal stability. Sodiated Sn exhibits better thermal stability than sodiated HC, while Sn-HC blends show intermediate behavior that improves with increasing Sn content. Post-ARC analyses reveal desodiation of Na15Sn4 to metallic Sn with particle coalescence, whereas Sn-HC blends and HC retain finer morphologies. PC promotes Sn oxidation to SnO, while TEGDME suppresses oxide formation; NaPF6-containing electrolytes additionally form NaF. DFT calculations show that PC adsorption lowers Na extraction energy and enhances interfacial electronic interactions, facilitating Na release and reductive decomposition. These results establish a direct correlation between solvent-dependent reaction pathways and thermal stability in SIB alloy anodes.

Accelerating rate calorimetry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Collective excitations and low-energy ionization signatures of relativistic particles in silicon detectors

Abstract Solid-state detectors with a low energy threshold have several applications, including searches of non-relativistic halo dark-matter particles with sub-GeV masses. When searching for relativistic, beyond-the-Standard-Model particles with enhanced cross sections for small energy transfers, a small detector with a low energy threshold may have better sensitivity than a larger detector with a higher energy threshold. In this paper, we calculate the low-energy ionization spectrum from high-velocity particles scattering in a dielectric material. We consider the full material response including the excitation of bulk plasmons. We generalize the energy-loss function to relativistic kinematics, and benchmark existing tools used for halo dark-matter scattering against electron energy-loss spectroscopy data. Compared to calculations commonly used in the literature, such as the Photo-Absorption-Ionization model or the free-electron model, including collective effects shifts the recoil ionization spectrum towards higher energies, typically peaking around 4–6 electron-hole pairs. We apply our results to the three benchmark examples: millicharged particles produced in a beam, neutrinos with a magnetic dipole moment produced in a reactor, and upscattered dark-matter particles. Our results show that the proper inclusion of collective effects typically enhances a detector’s sensitivity to these particles, since detector backgrounds, such as dark counts, peak at lower energies.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Microbial Enrichments Contribute to Characterization Of Desert Tortoise Gut Microbiota

Abstract Desert tortoises play ecologically significant roles, including plant seed dispersal and mineral cycling, and yet little is known about microbial members that are critical to their gut and overall health. Tortoises consume recalcitrant plant material, which their gut microbiota degrades and converts into usable metabolites and nutrients for the tortoise. Findings from tortoise gut microbiomes may translate well into biotechnological applications as these microbes have evolved to efficiently degrade recalcitrant substrates and generate useful products. In this study, we cultivated microbial communities from desert tortoise fecal samples following a targeted anaerobic enrichment for microbes involved in deconstruction and utilization of plant biomass. We employed 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing to compare cultivated communities to initial fecal source material and found high abundances of Firmicutes and Bacteroidota typically associated with biomass deconstruction in all cultivated samples. Significantly decreased microbial diversity was observed in the cultivated microbial communities, yet several key taxa thrived in lignocellulose enrichments, includingLachnospiraceaeandEnterococcus. Additionally, cultivated communities produced short-chain fatty acids under anaerobic conditions, and their growth and metabolic output provide evidence of their viability in the initial fecal communities. Overall, this study adds to the limited understanding of reptilian herbivore microbiota, and offers a path towards biotechnological translation based on the ability of the cultivated communities to convert lignocellulose directly to acetate, propionate, and butyrate.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Order–Disorder Phase Stabilization by Pressure‐Induced Charge Transfer Enhances the Ferroelectric Photovoltaic Effect in Multiferroic BaFe 4 O 7

Abstract Multiferroic ferroelectric photovoltaic (FPV) materials, combining magnetic and ferroelectric properties, are of paramount importance for optoelectronic and photovoltaic applications. However, optimizing both the remanent polarization and the optical bandgap—key factors for enhanced FPV performance—presents a significant challenge due to their trade‐off. This work shows that pressure‐induced charge transfer between different metal sites can break this trade‐off. Above ≈20 GPa, charge transfer between different trivalent iron (Fe) sites in the multiferroic material BaFe 4 O 7 leads to Fe valence disproportionation, FeO 4 tetrahedra disorder, and Jahn–Teller distortion of FeO 6 octahedra. These changes reduce the bandgap, lower resistivity, and enhance ferroelectric polarization, resulting in a 2.5‐fold increase in photocurrent. Upon decompression, BaFe 4 O 7 retains an order–disorder structure, optimal ferroelectric and optical properties at ambient conditions. This work provides a novel pathway to simultaneously optimizing ferroelectricity and bandgap via pressure‐induced charge transfer, overcoming the traditional trade‐off in FPV materials, and offers a promising approach for developing high polarization performance, narrow‐bandgap FPV materials.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Gold Quantum Rods: Modulation of Singlet and Triplet Exciton Populations by the Rod Length

Abstract Gold quantum rods (QRs) of Au60, Au78, Au96, and Au114 (protected by thiolate ligands) exhibit exclusive fluorescence, which is different from the shorter Au42 QR with dual emission (fluorescence + phosphorescence). Herein, we report the excitation wavelength-dependent near-infrared-II photoluminescence (PL) and exciton dynamics of this series of QRs. Interestingly, the fluorescence quantum yield (QY) of the QRs is much higher (2–10×) when the lowest singlet excited state (S1) is excited compared to the excitation of high-lying states (Sn). A metastable intermediate singlet state (denoted S′) is identified by transient absorption spectroscopy when Sn is excited, and this S′ state leads to fast “skybridge” intersystem crossing (ISC), which contributes primarily (>60%) to the total triplet population. With increasing aspect ratio (AR) of QRs (from 6.3 to 18.7), nonradiative processes accelerate, leading to fast decay of the S1 state (hence, less QY) and of the T1 state (barely phosphorescent). A detailed energy flow mechanism is determined for the QRs after photoexcitation, which offers a design principle for manipulation of exciton dynamics toward potential utilization of higher excited states in applications.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Recrystallization, cracking, and erosion of dispersoid-strengthened tungsten materials during exposure to divertor plasmas

In this study, we investigated the effects of combined intense particle and heat flux exposure on advanced tungsten plasma-facing materials within the DIII-D fusion facility. Our test matrix included two types of dispersoid-strengthened tungsten (containing either 100 nm diameter TiO 2 or Ni particles), along with high-purity polycrystalline tungsten as a reference. This experiment relied on a sample geometry angled at 15° relative to the divertor surface, thereby allowing the surfaces to intercept steady-state perpendicular heat fluxes (q ⟂ ) ranging from 10.1 to 19.6 MW/m 2 . During each shot, the samples were exposed to 42 Hz edge-localized modes (ELMs), allowing us to test the material response to transient heating. We correlated the exposure conditions with extensive post-test surface composition analysis and microscopy to determine how the plasma modified each surface. The angled specimens closest to the strike point received the highest combined heat and particle flux and melted midway through the experiment. EBSD analysis revealed they were completely recrystallized throughout, with an average grain size >100 µm. On the other hand, the specimens that received a lower steady state heat flux survived with more superficial surface damage. Whereas the high-purity polycrystalline tungsten exhibited a higher surface roughness, the dispersoid-strengthened material exhibited more extensive shallow inter-granular cracking. In addition, the surface was depleted of dispersoids following plasma exposure, possibly because of evaporation and/or sputtering. The results described here provide insights into the performance of these materials in a fusion environment which can guide further optimization for use in long-pulse devices.

Kolasinski, Robert D. [Sandia National Laboratorie↗
DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic Evaluation of Electrified Vehicle Options in Drayage Fleets

The electrification of drayage fleets offers potential economic and operational benefits, but the financial viability of electrified vehicles remains sensitive to battery cost, energy price, and fleet usage patterns. While total cost of ownership (TCO) is a useful benchmark, fleet operators and investors are equally concerned with investment performance metrics such as payback period (PB) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), which better reflect financial risks and investment return timelines. This study develops a unified techno-economic framework that jointly evaluates TCO, PB, and IRR to determine when electrified trucks become cost-effective alternatives to diesel trucks. Building on a previously developed cost modeling tool and using real-world telematics data from a Class 8 drayage fleet at the Port of Savannah, the analysis incorporates projected battery cost trajectories, electricity and diesel price trends, vehicle efficiency improvements, and multiple battery capacities. Parameter ranges reflect widely cited projections and observed drayage-duty-cycle variability. A surrogate-modeling method approximates economic performance across thousands of battery cost–electricity price combinations, enabling high-resolution identification of conditions that achieve TCO parity, acceptable PB thresholds, and target IRR levels. Additionally, the study estimates the evolving share of the fleet that can feasibly electrify over time under multiple economic metrics. This integrated framework offers a novel, data-driven approach to inform risk-aware decision-making for fleet electrification and supports investment planning under evolving cost and operational conditions.

Sun, Ruixiao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000341768676)↗