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At least 685 records · Page 38

Machine Learning Guided Synthesis of Flash Graphene

Advances in nanoscience have enabled the synthesis of nanomaterials, such as graphene, from low-value or waste materials through flash Joule heating. Though this capability is promising, the complex and entangled variables that govern nanocrystal formation in the Joule heating process remain poorly understood. In this work, machine learning (ML) models are constructed to explore the factors that drive the transformation of amorphous carbon into graphene nanocrystals during flash Joule heating. An XGBoost regression model of crystallinity achieves an r 2 score of 0.8051 ± 0.054. Feature importance assays and decision trees extracted from these models reveal key considerations in the selection of starting materials and the role of stochastic current fluctuations in flash Joule heating synthesis. Furthermore, partial dependence analyses demonstrate the importance of charge and current density as predictors of crystallinity, implying a progression from reaction-limited to diffusion-limited kinetics as flash Joule heating parameters change. Finally, a practical application of the ML models is shown by using Bayesian meta-learning algorithms to automatically improve bulk crystallinity over many Joule heating reactions. Furthermore, these results illustrate the power of ML as a tool to analyze complex nanomanufacturing processes and enable the synthesis of 2D crystals with desirable properties by flash Joule heating.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Measurement of jet substructure in boosted $t\overline{t}$ events with the ATLAS detector using 140 fb -1 of 13 TeV $pp$ collisions

Measurements of the substructure of top-quark jets are presented, using 140 fb -1 of 13 TeV pp collision data recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Top-quark jets reconstructed with the anti-k t algorithm with a radius parameter R = 1.0 are selected in top-quark pair ($t\overline{t}$) events where one top quark decays semileptonically and the other hadronically, or where both top quarks decay hadronically. The top-quark jets are required to have transverse momentum p T > 350 GeV, yielding large samples of data events with jet p T values between 350 and 600 GeV. One- and two-dimensional differential cross sections for eight substructure variables, defined using only the charged components of the jets, are measured in a particle-level phase space by correcting for the smearing and acceptance effects induced by the detector. The differential cross sections are compared with the predictions of several Monte Carlo simulations in which top-quark pair-production quantum chromodynamic matrix-element calculations at next-to-leading-order precision in the strong coupling constant α S are passed to leading-order parton shower and hadronization generators. The Monte Carlo predictions for measures of the broadness, and also the two-body structure, of the top-quark jets are found to be in good agreement with the measurements, while variables sensitive to the three-body structure of the top-quark jets exhibit some tension with the measured distributions.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Measurement of Two-Point Energy Correlators within Jets in 𝑝 + 𝑝 Collisions at $\sqrt{𝑠}$ = 200 GeV

Hard-scattered partons ejected from high-energy proton-proton collisions undergo parton shower and hadronization, resulting in collimated collections of particles that are clustered into jets. A substructure observable that highlights the transition between the perturbative and nonperturbative regimes of jet evolution in terms of the angle between two particles is the two-point energy correlator (EEC). In this Letter, the first measurement of the EEC at RHIC is presented, using data taken from 200 GeV 𝑝 + 𝑝 collisions by the STAR experiment. The EEC is measured both for all the pairs of particles in jets and separately for pairs with like and opposite electric charges. These measurements demonstrate that the transition between perturbative and nonperturbative effects occurs within an angular region that is consistent with expectations of a universal hadronization regime that scales with jet momentum for a given initiator flavor. Additionally, a deviation from Monte Carlo predictions at small angles in the charge-selected sample could result from mechanics of hadronization not fully captured by current models.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Fast Charging Infrastructure for Electrifying Road Trips to and from National Parks in the Western United States

National parks in the Western United States draw over 80 million visitors every year, and most visitors rely on personal cars for their road trips (or long-distance travels). Travel to national parks represents distinct travel demand, as they are typically located in remote areas necessitating long-distance trips. This study investigates the quantity and locations of on-route fast charging infrastructure needed by 2030 to enable seamless travel to/from national parks using electric vehicles in seven target states in the region, employing unprecedented high-resolution spatial and temporal analysis. We find that the required number of fast charging ports for on-route charging infrastructure ranges from 1,200 to 22,000, depending on different assumptions of key input parameters - vehicle electrification rate, charging behavior, average gap between charging stations, port utilization rate, and towing trailers. Our analysis also indicates that electrical load for on-route fast charging infrastructure would peak in the afternoon, in the range of 70-400 MW, varying with the key input parameters. This study illustrates how different input parameters result in different degrees of impact on various aspects of charging infrastructure. We also examine the characteristics of projected charging infrastructure in terms of land use type, relationship with traffic volume, size of stations, and other variables.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Approximating a linear multiplicative objective in watershed management optimization

Implementing management practices in a cost-efficient manner is critical for regional efforts to reduce the amount of pollutants entering the Chesapeake Bay. We study the problem of selecting a subset of practices that minimizes pollutant load—subject to budgetary and environmental constraints—as simulated in a widely used regulatory watershed model. Mimicking the computation of pollutant load in the regulatory model, we formulate this problem as a continuous optimization model with a linear multiplicative objective function and linear constraints. To lay the groundwork for incorporating additional stakeholder requirements in the future, especially those that would require integer variables, we present and study a continuous linear optimization model that approximates the nonlinear model. The linear model, which requires an exponential number of variables, arises naturally as an alternative model for the same underlying physical process. We examine the theoretical behavior of these optimization models and investigate restrictions of the linear model to handle its large number of variables. Through extensive computational tests on real and randomly generated instances, we demonstrate that the linear model and its restrictions provide optimal solutions close to those of the nonlinear model in practice, despite poor approximation properties in the worst case. We conclude that the linear model—together with our approach to handling its large number of variables—provides a viable framework from which to extend the optimization model to better meet the needs of the Chesapeake Bay watershed management stakeholders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Environmental fate of radiocesium in biota inhabiting a contaminated ecosystem on the U.S. Department of Energy's Savannah River Site

Although biomagnification of radiocesium ( 137 Cs) has been reported in food webs, most previous research has been limited to select trophic linkages. Few studies have included a comprehensive survey of fauna associated with aquatic, semi-aquatic, and terrestrial habitats within a single study framework. The objectives of this study were to advance our understanding of the dynamics of 137 Cs accumulation within food webs by quantifying 137 Cs activity across a wide range of biota found within a contaminated canal, as well as test the hypothesis that life-stage and body size influence 137 Cs bioaccumulation in select herpetofauna. With extensive sampling across multiple taxa collected from a contaminated canal system and associated floodplain on the Savannah River Site, we assessed 137 Cs activity and stable nitrogen isotopes for both aquatic organisms that were restricted to the contaminated effluent canal, and semi-aquatic organisms able to move freely between the contaminated canal and the adjacent uncontaminated terrestrial habitat. We found 137 Cs activity to be highly variable among species, with evidence for and against biomagnification in semi-aquatic and aquatic organisms, respectively. Furthermore, 137 Cs activity decreased with life stage and body size in bullfrogs (Lithobates catesbeianus), despite post-metamorphic bullfrogs having a more carnivorous diet compared to tadpoles, while cottonmouths (Agkistrodon piscivorus) retained similar 137 Cs activity regardless of their age and size. While evidence of biomagnification has been observed in some contaminated systems, results of our study suggest the extent to which 137 Cs biomagnifies within food webs is context-dependent and likely influenced by a suite of biotic and abiotic factors. Further, our data indicate sampling of a broad suite of species and environmental attributes are needed to elucidate the fate and dynamics of anthropogenic pollutants within contaminated ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying the effects of urbanization on floods in a changing environment to promote water security — A case study of two adjacent basins in Texas

The increased occurrence of flood events resulting from urbanization and global climate change is a great threat to water security. To systematically evaluate the impacts of urbanization on floods, here we applied a paired catchments approach to two adjacent river basins in south-central Texas — the San Antonio River Basin (SARB), with fast urbanization; and the Guadalupe River Basin (GRB), with little land cover change. A physics-based distributed hydrological model — the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model, embedded with a multi-purpose reservoir module (DHSVM-Res) — was used to simulate streamflow and reservoir storage. The simulations were conducted under different land cover scenarios, including a newly developed continuous land cover series (CLCS). Holistic analyses were then conducted for the paired basins using three methods: analyzing the selected flood events, detecting change points (CP) of monthly floods, and testing the elasticity of long-term flood regimes. The results suggest that: (1) urbanization may reduce lag time and elevate flood peaks significantly by 3–30% in our study area; (2) when there is little land cover change, changing climate is the major driver of variations in the monthly maximum streamflow (MMS); (3) fast urbanization can amplify streamflow variability, increase MMS significantly, and thus alter the timing of CP; and (4) the mean MMS of observed streamflow in the SARB has increased by as much as 75.7% from the pre-CP to post-CP periods. This comprehensive study fills in a gap in our current understanding of the isolated impacts of urbanization on flooding and is expected to support future explorations of anthropogenic influences on floods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Full-stack Quantification of Variability in Predicting Ion Transport Properties using Machine-learned Interatomic Potentials

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have become the state-of-the-art for performing accurate, scalable molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. It is therefore crucial to understand and quantify the reliability of MLIPs for downstream property predictions. Uncertainty in predicted properties can arise from limitations in first-principles training data, intrinsic MLIP model errors in representing the data, and the statistical noise introduced during subsequent MD simulations. Using ion transport in Li7P3S11 as a case study, we systematically assess the impact of training set size and selection, neural network stochasticity, and MD sampling statistics on predicted diffusivity and activation energy. We find that when using equivariant MLIP architectures with standard MD protocols, uncertainty arising from MD sampling dominates over model-induced errors. In contrast, MLIP errors relative to the underlying first-principles data are consistently minor. Given this, there are two main routes to improving the accuracy of predictions based on MLIP potentials: adopting higher accuracy reference data generation methods, and improving the MD sampling statistics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Grand Challenge "Uncertainty Project" to Accelerate Advances in Earth System Predictability: AI-Enabled Concepts and Applications

This proposal is emerging from GISS ModelE3 ESM development in the area of cloud physics, so we begin with an example of research needs/gaps from that work. Here, some of our greatest development concerns arise where we lack fundamental process-level understanding, as in ice formation. Namely, it is currently unclear what is the main process that is forming the majority of ice crystals in commonly occurring convection, apparently via secondary ice production at warm temperatures. We are keenly awaiting laboratory data for candidate mechanisms, which is not yet in hand to crucially establish their efficiency. Our progress is also hampered by a lack of uncertainty characterization in currently available measurements of ice crystal number size distributions. Furthermore, the same multiplication process may be responsible for a majority of ice crystals in many extratropical mixed-phase clouds, whose variable representation in CMIP6 ESMs may be a leading cause of differences in cloud phase feedback and ECS. Yet we have been required to deliver an ESM with the cloud physics knowledge at hand. The proposed grand challenge project is AI-enabled via application of machine learning (ML) to climate model and observational data streams (focal area 3), and applications include AI-guided observing system design and model/component/parameterization selection (areas 1 and 2). The project is structurally agnostic as to whether model or observing system components use AI approaches or not, but uncertainties must be estimated and propagatable in both.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Flowability of Crumbler Rotary Shear Size-Reduced Granular Biomass: An Experiment-Informed Modeling Study on the Angle of Repose

Biomass has potential as a carbon-neutral alternative to petroleum for chemical and energy products. However, complete replacement of fossil fuel is contingent upon efficient processes to eliminate undesirable characteristics of biomass, e.g., low bulk density, variability, and storage-induced quality problems. Mechanical size reduction via comminution is a processing operation to engineer favorable biomass flowability in handling. Crumbler rotary shear mill has been empirically demonstrated to produce more uniformly shaped particles with higher flowability than hammermilled biomass. This study combines modeling and experimentation to unveil fundamental understandings of the relation between granular particle characteristics and biomass flow behavior, which elucidate underlying mechanisms and guide selection of critical processing parameters. For this purpose, the impact of critical material attributes, including particle size (2–6 mm), particle shape (briquette, chip, clumped-sphere, cube, etc.), and surface roughness, on the angle of repose (AOR) of milled pine chips were investigated using discrete element method (DEM) simulations. Forest Concepts Crumbler rotary shear system is used to produce milled pine particles within the same size range considered in DEM simulations. AOR of different sets of these particles were measured experimentally to benchmark DEM results against experimental data. Specific energy consumption for the comminution of biomass with different particle size and moisture content are measured for technoeconomic analysis. Our results show that the smaller size (2 mm) of pine particle achieves better followability (i.e., smaller AOR) while the energy cost of comminution is significantly higher and bulk density is almost the same as the 6-mm pine particles. For the 2-mm particle size, Crumbles from veneer have better flow properties than Crumbles from chips. Contrarily, no significant difference was observed between the AOR of the two materials for the 6-mm particle size. Furthermore, from DEM simulations, mechanical interlocking between particles was found as a dominant factor in determining AOR of complex-shaped particles such as milled pine, which cannot be accurately captured by using simple particle shapes (e.g., mono-sphere) with a rolling resistance model. Conversely, clumped-sphere model alleviates this limitation without increasing computational cost significantly and can be used for accurate representation of biomass granular particles when simulating free-flow behavior.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Effects of forest degradation classification on the uncertainty of aboveground carbon estimates in the Amazon

Tropical forests are critical for the global carbon budget, yet they have been threatened by deforestation and forest degradation by fire, selective logging, and fragmentation. Existing uncertainties on land cover classification and in biomass estimates hinder accurate attribution of carbon emissions to specific forest classes. In this study, we used textural metrics derived from PlanetScope images to implement a probabilistic classification framework to identify intact, logged and burned forests in three Amazonian sites. We also estimated biomass for these forest classes using airborne lidar and compared biomass uncertainties using the lidar-derived estimates only to biomass uncertainties considering the forest degradation classification as well. Our classification approach reached overall accuracy of 0.86, with accuracy at individual sites varying from 0.69 to 0.93. Logged forests showed variable biomass changes, while burned forests showed an average carbon loss of 35%. We found that including uncertainty in forest degradation classification significantly increased uncertainty and decreased estimates of mean carbon density in two of the three test sites. Our findings indicate that the attribution of biomass changes to forest degradation classes needs to account for the uncertainty in forest degradation classification. By combining very high-resolution images with lidar data, we could attribute carbon stock changes to specific pathways of forest degradation. This approach also allows quantifying uncertainties of carbon emissions associated with forest degradation through logging and fire. Both the attribution and uncertainty quantification provide critical information for national greenhouse gas inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Finite boundary effects on the spherical Rayleigh–Taylor instability between viscous fluids

For the Rayleigh–Taylor unstable arrangement of a viscous fluid sphere embedded in a finite viscous fluid spherical shell with a rigid boundary and a radially directed acceleration, a dispersion relation is developed from a linear stability analysis using the method of normal modes. [Formula: see text] is the radially directed acceleration at the interface. ρ i denotes the density, μ i is the viscosity, and R i is the radius, where i = 1 is the inner sphere and i = 2 is the outer sphere. The dispersion relation is a function of the following dimensionless variables: viscosity ratio [Formula: see text], density ratio [Formula: see text], spherical harmonic mode n, [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and the dimensionless growth rate [Formula: see text], where σ is the exponential growth rate. We show that the boundedness provided by the outer spherical shell has a strong influence on the instability behavior, which is reflected not only in the modulation of the growth rate but also in the selection of the most unstable modes that are physically possible. This outer boundary effect is quantified by the relative magnitude of the radius ratio H. We find that when H is close to unity, lower order harmonics are excluded from becoming the most unstable within a vast region of the parameter space. In other words, the effect of H has precedence over the other controlling parameters d, B, and a wide range of s in establishing what the lowest most unstable mode can be. When H ~ 1, low order harmonics can become the most unstable only for s >> 1. However, in the limit when s → ∞, we show that the most unstable mode is n = 1 and derive the dispersion relation in this limit. The exclusion of most unstable low order harmonics caused by a finite outer boundary is not realized when the outer boundary extends beyond a certain threshold length-scale in which case all modes are equally possible depending on the value of B.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Suppressing Quantum Circuit Errors Due to System Variability

We present a quantum circuit optimization technique that takes into account the variability in error rates that is inherent across present-day noisy quantum computing platforms. This method can be run after qubit routing or postcompilation and consists of computing isomorphic subgraphs to input circuits and scoring each using heuristic cost functions derived from system calibration data. Using an independent standard algorithmic test suite, we show that it is possible to recover on average nearly 40% of missing fidelity using better qubit selection via efficient to compute cost functions. We demonstrate additional performance gains by considering qubit placement over multiple quantum processors. The overhead from these tools is minimal with respect to other compilation steps, such as qubit routing, as the number of qubits increases. As such, our method can be used to find qubit mappings for problems at the scale of quantum advantage and beyond.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

SCALE Analyses of Scenarios in the Molten Salt Reactor Fuel Cycle

In support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission non-light-water reactor fuel cycle demonstration project, the capabilities of SCALE 6.3.1 for radionuclide characterization, criticality, and shielding were demonstrated through several scenarios in a molten salt reactor (MSR) nuclear fuel cycle. Three scenarios were selected for this study, with the molten salt breeder reactor (MSBR) serving as the reference design. The original thorium-based fuel salt used in MSBR was replaced with a 235 U-enriched fuel salt to better reflect anticipated future MSR concepts. The first scenario focused on the fuel salt preparation stage. Criticality analyses, using SCALE/CSAS-Shift and SCALE/SAMPLER, examined potential critical configurations in the fresh fuel salt container based on variables such as 235 U enrichment, UF 4 molar fraction, temperature, and container geometry. The second scenario explored the release of fission products during reactor operation in which the tritium buildup in the primary fuel salt was quantified through depletion calculations using SCALE/TRITON with continuous fuel makeup and fractional fission product removal. This scenario also assessed radioactivity levels in the off-gas system (OGS), quantifying radiotoxic nuclides that could be released into the environment. SCALE/SAMPLER was employed to perform uncertainty quantification to identify key operating parameters influencing the buildup of radiotoxic nuclides in the OGS. Additionally, radiation dose rates were calculated using SCALE/MAVRIC to estimate the maximum exposure levels within the reactor cell complex during operation. The final scenario evaluated the decay heat and radioactivity of the primary fuel salt collected in the drain tank, as well as the radiation dose rate outside the building from the presence of the drain tank. Overall, the application of SCALE’s various capabilities for radionuclide inventory generation, criticality analysis, and shielding in MSR fuel cycles was successfully demonstrated across these scenarios.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Computational materials reliability assessment of hydrogen fueled gas turbine power generation engines

The use of blended fuel sources in land based gas turbine engines drives variations in the resulting operational profile (temperatures and pressures) which can impact engine reliability. Furthermore, variability in the manufacture of components affects the resulting microstructure which directly impacts material performance and reliability. Currently, data-driven models are typically used for maintaining and inspecting fleets of engines. Without explicitly capturing material and operational sources of variability conservatism must be used in developing component-level reliability models. Therefore, there exists an opportunity to use information from materials-scale physics models to better inform reliability modeling and reduce conservatism; the impact is more cost-efficient operation and maintenance of current and future fleets. Specifically, this work establishes a computational framework for evaluating the probabilistic high temperature creep performance of hot-section Ni-based superalloys where uncertainty comes from both microstructural and operational variability. A novel high-fidelity physics model which phenomenologically captures grain-boundary sensitive phenomena has been established. A probabilistic calibration procedure was used to calibrate the model and capture uncertainty in the parameterized model coefficients. A design of experiments methodology was established for identifying informative microstructural digital representations for suitable for forward model evaluation. Results show that training a machine-learning surrogate using this design criteria outperforms random selection of microstructural representations. Finally, two surrogate models were developed: (1) a deterministic surrogate model which predicts the local field response given microstructure, constitutive model parameters, and operating conditions (stress, temperature) and (2) a probabilistic model, where uncertainty comes from constitutive law uncertainty, built using denoising diffusion probabilistic models which samples responses given (1) microstructure and (2) operating conditions. These surrogate models enable partner Siemens Energy to rapidly perform UQ analysis specific to creep deformation across a range of microstructures and operating conditions. The impact is that these ML and physics codes can be used to establish more advanced reliability models for the inspection, servicing, and maintenance of land based gas turbine engines.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

An Overview of Neutron Irradiated SiC Layer Behavior using Micro-and Nano-Characterization Techniques

The complexity of fission product distribution and composition within the SiC layer of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated particles, irradiation effects on the SiC structure as well as the variable nature of metallic fission product release, has led to the exploration of multiple micro- and nano-characterization techniques. The fine scale of the fission product precipitates necessitates unique learnings and application of electron microscopic techniques with irradiated fuel during the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-1 experiment analysis. A summarized discussion on the specific advanced techniques with associated method development for TRISO coated particles is provided followed by the down selected techniques currently considered to provide the highest impact. Techniques considered are electron probe micro-analyzer (EPMA), scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM), and Precession electron diffraction (PED). SiC grain boundary characteristics are evaluated due to the mobility of specific fission products through grain boundaries. PED was performed for understanding the role of grain boundary character on fission product transport. One set of comparative analyses between AGR-1 and AGR-2 particles leads to a finding that the AGR-1, high-Ag-retention particle, had statistically more coincidence site lattice (CSL)-related grain boundaries (but fewer low-angle grain boundaries), compared to the AGR-2 particle. This implies that CSL-related grain boundaries may have a direct influence on Ag retention. However, precipitates were found on a relatively small fraction of CSL-related grain boundaries in both particles. In another set of comparison between AGR-1 and AGR-2 particles that were subjected to safety testing, there is significant differences in average SiC grain boundary distributions, but the fission product distributions on these grain boundaries are very similar.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Micro- and Nano-techniques for the Study of Fission Product Precipitation in SiC Layer

The complexity of fission product distribution and composition within the SiC layer of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated particles, irradiation effects on the SiC structure as well as the variable nature of metallic fission product release, has led to the exploration of multiple micro- and nano-characterization techniques. The fine scale of the fission product precipitates necessitates unique learnings and application of electron microscopic techniques with irradiated fuel during the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-1 experiment analysis. A summarized discussion on the specific advanced techniques with associated method development for TRISO coated particles is provided followed by the down selected techniques currently considered to provide the highest impact. Techniques considered are electron probe micro-analyzer (EPMA), scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM), and Precession electron diffraction (PED). SiC grain boundary characteristics are evaluated due to the mobility of specific fission products through grain boundaries. PED was performed for understanding the role of grain boundary character on fission product transport. One set of comparative analyses between AGR-1 and AGR-2 particles leads to a finding that the AGR-1, high-Ag-retention particle, had statistically more coincidence site lattice (CSL)-related grain boundaries (but fewer low-angle grain boundaries), compared to the AGR-2 particle. This implies that CSL-related grain boundaries may have a direct influence on Ag retention. However, precipitates were found on a relatively small fraction of CSL-related grain boundaries in both particles. In another set of comparison between AGR-1 and AGR-2 particles that were subjected to safety testing, there is significant differences in average SiC grain boundary distributions, but the fission product distributions on these grain boundaries are very similar.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Weatherization Assistant NEAT/MHEA

The software provides a measure selection technique indicating cost effective retrofit activities that can be applied to a home using a standard Savings to Investment Ratio (SIR). Users must provide an input file describing the characteristics of the home to be evaluated. The software takes the input data provided and calculates energy savings and cost savings predicted for a standard set of measures given the input parameters. The Weatherization Assistant computes estimates of pre-retrofit whole building space heating and cooling energy consumptions based on the house description data supplied by the user. The consumptions are computed using a monthly heating and cooling variable base degree-day method by algorithms similar to those developed for the CIRA program [LBL, 1982]. The building consumptions are needed in computing the energy savings from measures affecting the efficiencies of the heating and cooling equipment. Weatherization Assistant then computes the energy savings and costs for each individual measure applicable to the building described as if it were the only measure installed in the house. From these energy savings, a discounted dollar savings over the life of each measure is computed. The ratio of this dollar savings to the cost of installing the measure, the "savings-to-investment ratio" (SIR), is used in an initial ranking of the measures' effectiveness. The "interacted" savings and SIR of measures are then determined assuming the measures are added to the house collectively, in order of their ranking, e.g., the second ranked measure is installed in the house initially described by the user after having been modified by the first ranked measure. If this second-ranked measure's updated SIR is greater than a user-defined limit, the measure is left implemented, else it is removed so that the next measure's effectiveness is not dependent on it. The choice between two mutually exclusive measures (such as different levels of insulation) is made on the basis of their "net present value" (NPV), the difference of life-time savings and installation cost, rather than their SIR. This has been shown to be the more correct criterion on which to base the selection between two measures, both of which cannot be installed. The audit computes and reports to the user the energy savings, discounted dollar savings, installation cost, and SIR for each measure considered cost-effective. For those with SIR greater than the user-designated cutoff, a materials list gives the material name, type, and quantity required for installation of the measure. Weatherization Assistant permits entry of pre-retrofit billing data for gas or electrically heated homes or homes with electric air-conditioning. The user may then make the decision to have the savings of the measures adjusted to reflect the difference in billed consumption and that predicted by the program.

Gettings, Michael↗